In conjunction with our regular match previews published in the German Betfair blog we are pleased to present our league match with head-to-head history ‘Value’ bet detector spreadsheet.
with H2H History
WITH Asian Handicap
(ex VAT; see below)
WITHOUT Asian Handicap
(ex VAT; see below)
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Our bet selections are always based on true odds calculations identifying mathematical ‘value’ in the markets. Of course, not every bet can win, but ‘value’ betting is the only reliable method of ensuring long-term betting profits.
‘VALUE’ bet detector: The Excel spreadsheet calculates the ‘true’ odds (= expected probabilities based on historical statistics) and then displays each ‘value’ bet recommendation. For every event included the expected values are calculated, compared to market prices, and finally the statistical probability of winning the bet is shown.
Soccerwidow follows the philosophy that only through identifying bets containing mathematical ‘value’ in the prices offered by bookmakers or exchanges is it possible to make consistent profits.
It should be noted that the spreadsheet is not a tool for automated betting. The tables provide vital information to improve the accuracy of your own predictions, and the figures do not substitute for reading salient news and applying good judgement.
The Excel spreadsheet offered for sale comes pre-filled with data from the Premier League game Liverpool v. Manchester City on 26/8/2012. Just delete or over-type this to analyse any match of your choosing.
Read a few sample match previews which apply ‘League Games with H2H History’ calculations:
- 26.8.2012 English Premier League: Liverpool v. Manchester City – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
- 6.8.2012 Norwegian Tippeligaen: Stabæk v. SK Brann – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
- 5.8.2012 Belgian Jupiler League: Zulte-Waregem v. Gent – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
Notes: Adjust the picture quality at the bottom of the screen above by clicking on the ⚙ button (to the left of the YouTube logo), then click on ‘Quality’ and choose a higher resolution as desired. Go to full screen mode by clicking on the box symbol (to the right of the YouTube logo).
Supporting Videos
Data Sourcing: Learn where to find historical match data and download it from www.football-data.co.uk to make your own Excel store of statistics.
Data Input: Historical match results and head-to-head data input to populate the Value Bet Detector ready for input of the best odds you can find.
Frequently asked questions:
Can I use the spreadsheet in other leagues?
Yes, the calculations apply for any league in the world. The only parameters are that the game in question must be between two teams which have played at least their last 25 home or away games in the same league. The calculations are based on the home team’s last 25 home games and the away team’s last 25 away games, in the same league. Also, both teams must have played the corresponding fixture at least 6 times in the last 10 years (in other words, the home team has hosted the away team at least 6 times in all competitions (not friendlies) in the last 10 years).
How long does it take to enter historical data into the spreadsheet?
This is a manual procedure and you will quickly find which sources are best for the full-time and half-time results of both teams in the 25 matches to be analysed, plus the head-to-head encounters. We recommend Football-Data, Betexplorer, Oddsportal and Soccerway, although there are a host of other sites specialising in historical statistics.
At the start, you will find data collection will take about 30 minutes per match including entering the best bookmaker odds you can find (try Betfair and Oddschecker).
Are the formulas for the spreadsheet calculations visible?
Yes, we have hidden none of the formulas.
Exactly which historical records do I have to input?
The full-time and half-time scores for both team’s last 25 matches (home games only for the home team, away games only for the away team), plus the same for the head-to-head encounters over the last 10 years.
What knowledge is required?
You should already have a understanding of odds and how they are calculated. The spreadsheet is just a tool to identify potential bet candidates. You will need to understand what is meant by the term ‘value’ and also have a good idea how to spread risk with a well-structured betting portfolio. The spreadsheet is intermediate level, and you should be become entirely familiar with its mechanics before committing money to any bet recommendations suggested by the spreadsheet.
Ok I read the article that you sent me and I got in the right direction , but I have one more question.There you say that Value I is mathematical advantage (ROI) and Value II is relative deviation but in the spreadsheet that I have Value I is % price difference between market odds/real odds and Value II is mathematical advantage….
Hi Leon, well observed 😉
The titles in the spreadsheet are somehow ambiguous, but the formulas are exactly as explained in the article.
First column – Value I – price difference/ expected ROI
Second column – Value II – relative deviation
Strictly speaking, both values are ‘mathematical advantages’.
Odds calculation is nowhere properly explained and terminology is wildly mixed up everywhere. Unfortunately, there is no reliable reference literature I can refer you to. I need to come up with the terminology myself and correct it along the way. This is something where I’m consistently trying to link up with native English mathematicians/statisticians to help me with the correct use of mathematical terminology.
My native languages are Russian and German, and my financial and mathematical education is from German universities. Although I have strong links to universities in Germany, the mathematicians there are as lost as I am in regards of the handling of English mathematical terminology.
This is actually the main reason why there are not too many explanatory mathematical articles in this blog as each one needs weeks (and sometimes months) of research before ready for publishing.
Hi, I am interested in your spreadsheet, but nowadays http://www.football-data.co.uk do not offer their historical matches results ordered as you demonstrate in your video, and take too much time to input every single result one by one from a data historical result, do you have a solution for this problem? Do you sell your historical results spreadsheet for be able to use the value detector?
Hi Luis,
Football-data.co.uk still offers historical data for free download. Here the link: http://www.football-data.co.uk/data.php, but the data comes raw and needs to be prepared as explained in this video: How to prepare historical football data in Excel for further analysis
Hi Soccer widow,
Will you produce a value betting spreadsheet for the W.C. in Brazil this summer?
I don’t see something relevant in the online store.
Thank u
Hi Socrates,
I’m sorry, but there is nothing planned for the W.C. this year.
Odds calculation for matches without any (or hardly) any statistics is enormously time-consuming.
We did match previews for the Euro 2012 (archive here), and each of them took most of a whole day to compile and analyse. Although the picks were very successful, unfortunately we do not have the luxury of such time to devote to a similar exercise.
My advice is just to lean back and enjoy the competition. We can give you one tip, England will not win the World Cup! 😉
Thank u for the swift reply.
I was thinking of adjusting the spreadsheet for int. club competitions for the W.C.
Explaining : 30 competitive away matches for each team in order to assess the form + 10 on neutral turf and you can get a decent comparison for both sides.
With Brazil you need to include 30 matches on home turf
In any case, all of your sheets, which i bought, produce amazing results, but most importantly they change the way we bet.
Keep up the good work
Hi Socrates, please don’t! It’s not going to work. Save yourself the time and just enjoy the games. 🙂
However, if you wish to continue betting during the summer break in Europe, please note that the VC is applicable to every professional league in the world as long as it’s a league game with H2H history.
So, instead of a European team you can easily use it for Nordic games, or the MLS, for example.
Dear soccer widow,
How would u approach a match between teams who share common ground ?
I mean local derbies like ; AC Milan vs Inter Milan or Roma vs Lazio?
Perhaps : 25 home matches each club + H2H history irrespective of who is home, with a minimum of 25 games?
Enlighten me once again !
You are correct!
Last 25 matches – both teams the home matches
H2H – all matches – irrespective of who is home.. Stick here to last 10 years. You can even reduce to max. 10 H2H matches. It’s only a correction factor in the calculations.
Hi!
I am just wondering why can’t I change the best odds on Asian Handicap Away team. The cells are green, but it wont let me change the automatic odds the sheets have entered there…these odds are different to the bookies odds I would like to enter there.
And also, can somebody advice me a good site to check odds for the games that have been already played?
Thanks in advance
Hi Lauri,
I have sent you the password to unprotect the spreadsheet, but roughly speaking, odds on one side of the equation are always balanced out by those on the other side. Therefore, the spreadsheet takes away the necessity to fill in the away team odds by automatically calculating the corresponding odds. For example, if one side of the bet is priced with a 30% chance of winning, then the other side of the bet has to be 70% (minus approx. 5% bookmaker overround).
There is a plethora of sites to check for games which have already been played. A good start is our Link Directory, but also the many articles in which we address historical data.
Thanks.
I understand that.
But the “Best odds from the bookmakers” are different than what the sheets give us in the Overs market.
For example:
Southampton vs ManU this weekend. Bet365 offers Over 2.5 @ odds 1.72.
Excel sheets automatically gives Over 2.5 odds @ 1.88.
So if the sheets say there is value betting over 2,5 @ 1.88, but odds with my bookmaker are 1.72, not 1.88 so the value there is wrong …
If the expected O2.5 odds are calculated 1.88 (the formulae in the spreadsheet takes 5% bookmaker overround into consideration), then 1.72 is far, far, far too low! Huge overround, and huge advantage for the bookies.
Do not back bets like this. Laying though may be considered, but it really depends on your strategy and the probability group(s) you are focusing on.
Hi Soccerwidow,
I also really appreciate you sharing this knowledge.
Is it possible to have the password to unprotect the sheet?
Hy hunny2o2,
Thanks for your custom. I’ve emailed the password to you 🙂
Hi, I bought excel sheet, I have read all the comments and they were all helpful, but I would ask if any of your clients or staff, made a video which shows clearly how to load the data of 25 games at home and outside the home, I can not copy from the sites that you have said ….
I’m doing everything by hand and it is a long job.
it is possible to have a video of a few minutes when you see the start, what should I do?
The video that you have put all the data is useful but Liverpool – Manchester C. are already loaded and does not help people like me who has to start from the beginning.
thanks
Hi Maurizio,
here is a video how to input data: How to input match & H2H data
Although data input is a manual job, with a little practice it will become easier and quicker, and finally the time needed to fill in the data for the last 25 matches and H2H’s should take no more than 5 minutes for each match.
Thanks
Hi Soccerwidow,
In the case of international club competitions (UCL or Europa etc) where teams come from the same country (e.g. Barcelona vs. Atletico Madrid) is it preferable to use the spreadsheet with H2H history, used for domestic leagues or the spreadsheet for club competitions ??
both seem to apply , but i get totally different value bets !
Regards,
Hi Socrates,
the VC with H2H history returns more accurate predictions than the spreadsheet for international club competitions because of the H2H correction factor. Therefore, it is advisable to use the spreadsheet with H2H history if applicable.
Best wishes,
Soccerwidow
Hi Soccerwidow,
I never play Asian handicap, would you recommend me to buy with or without Asian handicap excel? I mostly play Over/Under and “Both teams score or not” and if I find it worth betting FT. Will the excel sheet you provide enable my betting having a mathematical background. I am a Financial Mathematician in Turkey and I’ll probably understand the language you’ll talk to me but my main concern is that whether or not this excel will help me in my betting. 🙂 If I have a clear answer I would really appreciate it. Thank you
Hi TBBT, thanks for your interest in purchasing the VC… The ASH predictions are more accurate (have a lower error rate – I speak here to a mathematician who knows the term 😉 ) than the FT 1×2 market because the ASH calculations are based on goal differences whilst the 1×2 market is not.
FT 1×2 is tricky for the bettor because only 1 goal in favour of a team can turn the whole match to win in either direction, or turn a lead into a draw.
The same applies to the O/U market – again more accurate that 1×2. However, if you fancy 1×2 betting then the HT market is quite interesting, far more than the FT as the lads have then only 45 minutes to mess up with statistics.
Thanks for the answer Soccerwidow, but my main question here is will this Excel sheet help me to predict a likely outcome of the goals scored in the game? Can I just input past 25 and 7 H2H games and find a probabilistic result?
Yes, you can just input past 25 and 7 H2H games and find probabilistic results.
The spreadsheet calculates the ‘true’ probabilities of different outcomes (e.g. Under 3.5 goals, home team win at HT, etc.), for most bet types with error rates under 3%, meaning that if the VC calculated last weekend for Man City a 49% probability for their away win against West Ham (see example in following article: Are Betting Odds Worthwhile Calculating? Are Betting Odds Always Fair?), then the expected and empirically observed hit rate for matches in this particular probability cluster is (of course, after a good number of observations) somewhere between 46% and 52% (49% +/- 3%).
Here is a screenshot from my monitoring of the VC ‘true’ odds cluster calculations containing 609 observed matches.
Hi again, may i ask which indicators you look when betting over under, 1×2 and will both teams score or not? I believe, correct me if I’m wrong, from which I have learned from your videos is that:
1- if the true odds are lower than the bookmakers odds then there is a value there and is worth betting?
2- What if that even tough the value is negative but we believe that the bet will win, should bet on it, where it give higher odds to that bet.
3- In addition to this what if there are less than 6 h2h games, can we still bet on the game?
4- One last thing the game tomorrow between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund, the model says to bet on Dortmund but I believe this is not a good bet, due to Bayern Munich’s winning streak and strength over Dortmund. Why is the reason for this?
Thank you in advance 🙂
and one last question, I really cannot understand what laying or backing is, from where I play there are no laying or backing. Can you explain this in couple of sentences also 🙂
Hi Soccerwidow
1.When you calculated those 609 and came up with the error rate, which “rules” did you use? Did you pick everthing that has shown a positive Value 1? Or everything that has shown you “Back” (Column D>E,…)? Or did you use more criterias apart from the calculated results (your personal/own estimate)
2.When testing the error rate for the AHC section, i assume u used the formula in automatic aswell, did you?
If yes, how did you came up with the “ColumnZ*1.2>ColumnR”
Did you only choose the Handicaps 0, 0.5, 1 or also the Handicaps 0.25, 0.75 (since these are only created out of the others)
– The problem is that i werent able to reach similar results – the percentages were off and also the expected yield is not matching the real. What could i do better when selecting a bet. (I prefer AHC and 1X2 – when i find a way to match the expected with the real results, like you do, i would be fine abandoning one of them)
3.To be sure: the H2H games are league aswell as cup games? i guess only the league cup in each country (not telekom cup or similar) – Ive read something about only using a max. of 10 H2H. What if e.g. south american leagues play each other 2-3 times a year at home, which leads to 15-20 H2H games.
4.The European Leagues are starting soon – would you leave out the first matchdays or start calculating from day 1.
Hi Kai,
In statistics, if one speaks about ‘error’ then the talk is about deviation: The deviation (error) from the (expected) mean.
You are referring to the screenshot with my monitoring of the VC ‘true’ odds cluster calculations. For example, look at Full-Time HOME – 40.0 to 49.99% probability cluster: You would have expected in this cluster a hit rate (mean) of 45.0%, and the observed hit rate was 48.3% (‘error’ = deviation from the expectation: 3.3%)
If you like to learn deviation and ‘errors’ then you should probably consider of purchasing the Fundamentals of Sports Betting Course; there I explain in great detail this terminology and its use for betting.
Your 2. Question… The automatic formulas are years of research and I simply cannot explain in just a few words how I came up with them. Please keep in mind that the VC was mainly developed to assist me with my match previews whilst I was writing for Betfair. I needed to be able to identify a diversified portfolio of different bet types for one single match, not only 1×2 bets.
If you are mainly interested into 1×2 betting you should probably consider the HDAFU Tables, they are much more useful for developing a betting system for the Home-Draw-Away market.
3. The more H2H you can take in the better. Again, please keep in mind as I was developing the VC that I was writing for Betfair Germany as well as Betfair England. Both were not interested into any American matches but only the EPL and the German BL. Therefore, at that time, I have never thought about the South American leagues when writing articles for Soccerwidow.
However, of course you can use the VC for any other professional leagues in the whole world (statistics are statistics!) as long as it’s a stable format.
4. For betting purposes if you use the VC only I would leave the first six weeks untouched as with taking 25 games for calculation you are going to cover the previous season and the pre-previous season which makes the results very volatile to deviation (errors).