In conjunction with our regular match previews published in the German Betfair blog we are pleased to present our league match with head-to-head history ‘Value’ bet detector spreadsheet.
with H2H History
WITH Asian Handicap
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WITHOUT Asian Handicap
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Our bet selections are always based on true odds calculations identifying mathematical ‘value’ in the markets. Of course, not every bet can win, but ‘value’ betting is the only reliable method of ensuring long-term betting profits.
‘VALUE’ bet detector: The Excel spreadsheet calculates the ‘true’ odds (= expected probabilities based on historical statistics) and then displays each ‘value’ bet recommendation. For every event included the expected values are calculated, compared to market prices, and finally the statistical probability of winning the bet is shown.
Soccerwidow follows the philosophy that only through identifying bets containing mathematical ‘value’ in the prices offered by bookmakers or exchanges is it possible to make consistent profits.
It should be noted that the spreadsheet is not a tool for automated betting. The tables provide vital information to improve the accuracy of your own predictions, and the figures do not substitute for reading salient news and applying good judgement.
The Excel spreadsheet offered for sale comes pre-filled with data from the Premier League game Liverpool v. Manchester City on 26/8/2012. Just delete or over-type this to analyse any match of your choosing.
Read a few sample match previews which apply ‘League Games with H2H History’ calculations:
- 26.8.2012 English Premier League: Liverpool v. Manchester City – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
- 6.8.2012 Norwegian Tippeligaen: Stabæk v. SK Brann – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
- 5.8.2012 Belgian Jupiler League: Zulte-Waregem v. Gent – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
Notes: Adjust the picture quality at the bottom of the screen above by clicking on the ⚙ button (to the left of the YouTube logo), then click on ‘Quality’ and choose a higher resolution as desired. Go to full screen mode by clicking on the box symbol (to the right of the YouTube logo).
Supporting Videos
Data Sourcing: Learn where to find historical match data and download it from www.football-data.co.uk to make your own Excel store of statistics.
Data Input: Historical match results and head-to-head data input to populate the Value Bet Detector ready for input of the best odds you can find.
Frequently asked questions:
Can I use the spreadsheet in other leagues?
Yes, the calculations apply for any league in the world. The only parameters are that the game in question must be between two teams which have played at least their last 25 home or away games in the same league. The calculations are based on the home team’s last 25 home games and the away team’s last 25 away games, in the same league. Also, both teams must have played the corresponding fixture at least 6 times in the last 10 years (in other words, the home team has hosted the away team at least 6 times in all competitions (not friendlies) in the last 10 years).
How long does it take to enter historical data into the spreadsheet?
This is a manual procedure and you will quickly find which sources are best for the full-time and half-time results of both teams in the 25 matches to be analysed, plus the head-to-head encounters. We recommend Football-Data, Betexplorer, Oddsportal and Soccerway, although there are a host of other sites specialising in historical statistics.
At the start, you will find data collection will take about 30 minutes per match including entering the best bookmaker odds you can find (try Betfair and Oddschecker).
Are the formulas for the spreadsheet calculations visible?
Yes, we have hidden none of the formulas.
Exactly which historical records do I have to input?
The full-time and half-time scores for both team’s last 25 matches (home games only for the home team, away games only for the away team), plus the same for the head-to-head encounters over the last 10 years.
What knowledge is required?
You should already have a understanding of odds and how they are calculated. The spreadsheet is just a tool to identify potential bet candidates. You will need to understand what is meant by the term ‘value’ and also have a good idea how to spread risk with a well-structured betting portfolio. The spreadsheet is intermediate level, and you should be become entirely familiar with its mechanics before committing money to any bet recommendations suggested by the spreadsheet.
Hi,
I refer to the the H2H function. I struggle to understand how a match that occurred several seasons ago have an effect on the odds of a match in the present??
Odds calculation is all about expected distributions.
For example, if from 10 matches between two teams in the past, eight games finished with a home win, then this is quite important and needs to be factored into the probabilities for the forthcoming game.
It makes no sense though, how can a result 4 years ago have any influence on odds for a forthcoming game?
In some cases none of the same players will even be playing on either side?
Do you have a more detailed explanation as to why the H2H records are so important as to my mind they should not have any influence?
Thanks
Hi Chris, successful gambling is linked to odds calculation, meaning predicting the probabilities of an event, calculating the expected distribution of results, but not about forecasting correct results with 100% certainty. Foretelling the outcome of a specific match is simply impossible.
You are right, H2H records from games, say 4 years ago, cannot have too much influence for a forthcoming game. However, in statistics we are not talking about “influences” or “stimulus”, or which other terms are common in connection with the wishy-washy discussions about “form” within the betting community.
Strictly speaking, there is nothing such as form which can be analysed statistically. The available data is neither large enough, nor comparable or interval scaled. So-called “form data” cannot be interpreted arithmetically.
It is important to remember that successful betting is all about calculating expected distributions, coming up with true odds and identifying value in the prices [odds] in the market.
I understand that this pure statistical approach to betting may come accross as being unnerving and it is certainly in conflict with emotions. Therefore, you may wish to check the following article: Heart Beats Brain – Is Accurate Forecasting of Specific Results in Football Matches Possible?. This was one of my first articles as my dear husband used to feel pretty disturbed if teams didn’t finish meeting his gut feelings and expectations.
Thank you for your query as it’s something which seem to bother a lot of people, and if time permits I will address this question in greater length via articles, calculations, chart data, tutorials, etc.
Soccerwidow, this calculator (True Odds & Value Detector: League Games with H2H History) requires data of at least 6 H2H matches in the last 10 years, I guess those 6 matches (or more) are taken as an “accurate” sample size for it’s calculations (correct me if I’m wrong), but why the last 10 years?
My guess is: to put more weight in recent season performances than seasons played 12 or 15 years ago, but I’m only guessing. You already answered me some months ago about why 25 instead of 38 or more matches; I wonder if is the same case with H2H records?.
In other subject, I found very interesting your highly statistical/mathematic approach to soccer since I discovered this site; the vast majority only base their predictions/expected distributions on what many people like to call “form”, or if X or Y player is absent or available to be in the match, many bettors use to pay too much attention to those tiny details, some even wait until line ups are given to take a position.
I really doubt bookmakers pay so much attention to every single detail to build their prices, as they have hundreds of games per week in many sports not just soccer; that approach IMO it’s a bit time waster, unless they know in advance some significant and fishy information; like a match being fixed; I still can’t understand statistically how important is the starting 11; a midfielder being injured, a coach being fired, etc.?
Hi Jogomo, many thanks for your praise. It is always very motivating to hear kind words. 🙂
There are many reasons for using the last 10 years for capturing H2H statistics. I will try to answer your query in greater detail via an article. However, the short answer is that every other sample size is far less statistically significant, even the requirement of “at least 6 H2H matches” is very small in statistical terms. Nevertheless, it works and brings up pretty accurate results.
Regarding bookmakers, just keep reminding yourself that these guys publish their odds sometimes weeks in advance of a game. They don’t have a crystal ball to predict the starting 11, a midfielder being injured, a coach being fired, etc. Check this article: How do Bookmakers Tick? How & Why do they Set Their Odds as they do? It may answer your query. If not, don’t hesitate and keep asking. Questions really help us to know which topics are of high interest to our readers and need addressing.
Hey soccerwidow I bought the value detector and I started a portofolio.But I have a problem.I don’t have a real bank at the moment so I keep an evidence only virtual of my bets.The portfolio is only 2 weeks old so I started with a bank of 200 units but the problem is that only 1 or 2 times till now I got a bank increase in the rest of the time my bank still decrease.So I think the problem is on choosing the bets.In 2 weeks I picked about 85 value bets and 11 of them are Half Time/Full Time.From those 11 HT/FT picks only 1 win at the odd of 4.5 so I have a big loose of this kind of bet.Is there a trick on choosing the value bets ? How do you choose the value bets from a match ? I saw that you started with a bank of 50 euros and your bank growed almost every month.Do you also take the hgher probabilitys in count? Most of the HT/FT bets that I choosed are over 20% probability and win only 1.It’s true that a winning HT/FT bet can boost your bank but it seems that it’s so hard to win this kind of bet.I will really appreciate if you will give me and advice !
Hi Sergiu, the VC is not an automated betting tool. It has been developed to support people to identify value bets and implement their own strategies.
Column S brings up betting suggestions. However, you need to decide which betting types you want to concentrate on, and which probability clusters to follow.
For example, if you keep picking bets with a probability of 70% and higher to win, then on average you should observe 7 out of 10 picks winning. However, if you keep swinging between different probability clusters then the bets are not comparable, and also they are not comparable if you don’t stick to a certain strategy, e.g. Over/Under goals markets, or HT result market.
If you look at the value calculator you should see that the HT/FT market is marked “MONITORING PURPOSES ONLY”. The reason is that most of these bets have very low probabilities such as 20% and below. If you decide, for example, to bet on Home/Home if there is value and a probability of around 20% then you will be expecting that of every 5 bets one bet wins. However, unfortunately bets do not line up nicely. Within these low probability groups you may experience a ‘lucky’ streak and win a few bets in a row, but also observe dozens of consecutive bets losing.
I hope this helps.
Hi Soccerwidow,
Firstly, a very big and nice compliment to you … A few weeks ago I bought your Excel spreadsheet for league games and I am very happy with it.
It is so super clear, and the most amazing thing is that it works really great … I have analyzed a good number of games and only need half an hour for a complete evaluation. So far, I have calculated around 120 matches 🙂
Some of them fell through the filter and had almost no value, but 48 matches I was happy with and achieved a 16% ROI ;)! I think that the 16% figure is somewhat utopian and will probably correct itself to about 10% but that is more than satisfying…
It is truly amazing how accurately mathematics and statistics can predict a game … breathtaking output!
Hello,
Looks interesting as 90% of your website
To use this tool i have update odds for each match manually or updates are automated?
Sorry for my poor english.
Best regards
Hi Manu and thanks for your question…
Everything has to be done manually.
There are too many users from different parts of the world, using different bookmakers, interested in different leagues, following their own strategies and interests, etc. to make automation of the spreadsheet viable.
Hello,
Why 50-50% to estimate true odds? (Last results-H2H)
Why not 70-30?
Thanks
Hi Manu, because the 50-50 split is the formula which works best for league games with H2H history. It returns accurate results with a low variance – meaning that the expected distribution (own calculations) and the observed results match with higher accuracy than when applying any other approach.
This topic is on my schedule to address in more depth as we receive quite a good number of queries.
Hello,
Does the excel works automatic or i have to introduce odds (1×2, etc) manually?
Are there updates every month or similar?
Thanks
Dear Manu,
please watch the supporting videos (links are below the video embedded on this site).
The spreadsheet is not (!) a tool for automated betting, and it does not (!) work automatically.
It has been developed for learning purposes, for people who wish to learn odds calculation to improve their betting skills by pointing out match result probabilities and the notional “value” contained in each bet.
Hey soccerwidow I have a question for you.When you pick a prediction lets say one with value grater than 30% what you take in consideration Value 1 or Value 2 mathematical advantage? And what is the difference between those 2.Please help me!
Value I = % price difference between market odds/real odds
Value II = % ‘value’ or ‘mathematical advantage’
It’s up to you which one you take into considaration and base your decisions upon but stick to the same evaluation process all the time.
These two articles may help you to understand the term ‘mathematical advantage’ better:
What is a Bet? How to Calculate Mathematical Advantage?
Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage: Explained
Thanks for your question, and I will add it to my list of topics to address in a little bit more in detail.
I’m still confused and I readed the two articles you linked me.I saw that in the Liverpool-Man.City you tooked in consideration value I.
Hi Jay, I am really sorry for your confusion, but odds calculation is not explained in a short answer.
The value calculator is a learning tool; the level is more advanced than our Football Betting Odds Calculation Course – How to Calculate Odds – Over / Under ‘X’ Goals.
The course teaches an understanding of probabilties, odds calculation, as well as ‘value’. It contains loads of example calculations and own exercises. The value calculator presupposes that this basic knowledge is already there.