Congratulations to those ‘mad’ scientists at the International School of Management (ISM) in Frankfurt and the German Sports University in Cologne whose predictions we followed throughout Euro 2012.

Image: Pikoso.kz (Shutterstock)

Those of you who also followed suit reaped the benefits of their statistical predictions realising a yield of between 19.7% and 25.5% depending upon which style of staking plan you employed (either fixed stake or fixed risk/win).

However, some of their prophecies did not materialise…

For example, co-hosts Poland did not make the semi-finals.

There were plenty of goals in the England v. Sweden match but not a huge goal difference for England and in the end they struggled to win at all.

Alas, the scientists’ beloved Germany did not get a chance to dethrone the defending champions in the final despite saying, “chance, luck and statistics are favouring zis”.

Never-ze-less, ze predictions from ze Frankfurt and Cologne think-tanks produced handsome profits.

As mentioned in our original article not all predictions will win. Indeed, it would have been miraculous if they had all won as the mathematical likelihood was just 0.00000031% (326 million to 1 – that’s definitely the way to bankrupt the bookies!).

Soccerwidow’s pre-tournament profit/loss estimation of the scientists’ predictions using a fixed risk/fixed win staking plan:

Total risk of all bets (stakes): 106.55 Units
Maximum potential profit: 140.52 Units
Realistically expected profit (10%-15% yield): 10.66 to 15.98 Units

However, things turned out better than expected with profits of 27.22 units (25.5% yield) based on our favoured fixed risk/fixed win staking plan:

Euro 2012 Simulation: Staking Plan Fixed Win / Fixed Risk

Euro 2012 Simulation: Staking Plan Fixed Stake

The second table represents the same bets using a fixed stake staking plan.

We feel that a Fixed win/Fixed Risk staking plan is the most solid and reliable form of staking for maximised profits and minimised losses, and we have just found this article Raceadvisor.co.uk: Fixed Profits or Fixed Stakes? which includes a mathematical experiment comparing a fixed stake with a fixed risk/win staking plan. It’s an interesting read and a similar outcome to our own findings.

However, the Fixed Stake Staking Plan tends to be a more popular method and although this would have also brought a nice profit of 22.65 units (19.7% yield), the Fixed win/Fixed Risk staking plan remains ‘smarter’ in our humble opinion.

Staking Plan Excel Spreadsheet for Download

If you would like to analyse these calculations in a little more detail you can download our Excel spreadsheet which complements the above tables, free of charge. However, please kindly return the favour and either Twitter this article, like it on Facebook, or Google+ it.

Excelspreadsheet Euro 2012 Simulation – Staking Plan Comparison

Famous Last Words

In our original ‘mad scientists’ article we recommended a fixed win/fixed risk staking plan and as we have seen, this method performed better than a fixed stake staking plan.

However, both staking plans produced fairly similar results due mainly to the fact that betting odds between 1.5 and 3.5 were in play. Especially at the lower odds the differences between the stake amounts in both plans were not huge, which ultimately led to similar results.

Whichever staking plan you choose is down to you and it then remains to follow it religiously without emotion and to never chase losses…

If you now have a great void in your life following the completion of Euro 2012, instead of developing withdrawal symptoms or falling into post-Euro 2012 depression, remember that you always have therapy available by reading this blog from cover to cover. Then, if you are very brave you may wish to dive into Soccerwidow’s Fundamentals of Sports Betting course in order to learn the skills of professional odds calculation and prepare yourself for next season!

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option. For this match we used a modified version of the spreadsheet for international tournament games with little or no head-to-head history.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 30th June, 2012…

The ‘Valueless’ Final:

Barring the FIFA World Cup final itself, the final of the UEFA European Championship is the highest profile match in football and some would argue the tournament as a whole is usually of better quality than the World Cup. Everyone knows that Spain are just one win away from entering the history books by becoming the first team to win three major tournaments in a row, but it is still a fact that no national team has ever achieved this.

This game is a similar proposition to the one Italy faced against Germany, with a seemingly invincible foe on current form to be overcome, but like Germany, Spain have never beaten Italy in either regulation or extra time in six previous tournament meetings (4 Draws, 2 Italian wins), although they did triumph 4-2 on penalties in the Euro 2008 quarter-finals.

Looking at the betting odds for this game, many people will have made good profits already from Italy’s price having seen it start at around 5.0 when the market opened, and traded down to a point where it can be laid today (29 hours before kick-off) for 4.0. Not bad work if you can get it! It looks like trading may well be the safest form of making money from this game as understandably, due to its high profile and plenty of accompanying statistical data, the markets have been analysed to the point where there is negative ‘value’ available on most of the reasonably high probability betting options.

We must therefore advise that ‘value’ betting on this game will be like finding safe passage through a minefield of unattractive options, where not even a coin toss will be weighted in your favour. If we have put you off then fine, we don’t blame you for wanting to keep your powder dry for more advantageous opportunities. If you feel you must gamble with this match, then read on, we do have something for you…

Salient statistics for the bet recommendations:

Spain’s last 30 competitive matches abroad (since 18.6.2008):

• Full-time Over 1.5 Goals: 20 times (66.7%)
• Last 6 Full-time Scores (most recent first): 0-0; 2-0 (win); 1-0 (win); 4-0 (win); 1-1; 2-0 (win)
• Average Goals Per Game: 2.43

Spain’s games on neutral turf within their last 30 competitive matches abroad (19 matches since 18.6.2008):

• Full-time Over 1.5 Goals: 9 times (47.4%)
• Last 6 Full-time Scores (most recent first): 0-0; 2-0 (win); 1-0 (win); 4-0 (win); 1-1; 0-0
• Average Goals Per Game: 1.74

Italy’s last 30 competitive matches abroad (since 6.9.2006):

• Full-time Over 1.5 Goals: 24 times (80%)
• Last 6 Full-time Scores (most recent first): 2-1 (win); 0-0; 2-0 (win); 1-1; 1-1; 1-1
• Average Goals Per Game: 2.33

Italy’s games on neutral turf within their last 30 competitive matches abroad (15 matches since 6.9.2006):

• Full-time Over 1.5 Goals: 10 times (66.7%)
• Last 6 Full-time Scores (most recent first): 2-1 (win); 0-0; 2-0 (win); 1-1; 1-1; 2-3 (loss)
• Average Goals Per Game: 2.20

Identified Value Bets:

• Value Betting Tip 1: Back Full-time Over 1.5 Goals (Odds: 1.65; Zero or ‘true’ back odds: 1.46; Probability: 68.5%).

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 2: Backing Spain at full-time carries ‘value’ at the current price of 2.26, although the ‘zero’ or ‘true’ odds are 2.12 equating to less than 7% value. The chance of success is 47.1%.

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 3: Backing both teams to score: “No” carries a little value at odds of 1.72, and the ‘zero’ odds here are 1.66. The value on offer is therefore less than 4% but the probability is 60.2%.

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 4: If you fancy a 99% probability bet then backing full-time under 5.5 goals at odds of just 1.02 might appeal, and it even carries value, but just 1%…

Bet WON

• Forward to next match analysis: 5th August 2012 – Belgian Jupiler League – Zulte-Waregem v Gent
• Back to previous match analysis: 28th June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Germany v Italy

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option. For this match we used a modified version of the spreadsheet for international tournament games with little or no head-to-head history.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 27th June, 2012…

Polished Performance Required:

Italy aren’t a bad team, it’s just that they haven’t really had a ‘brilliant’ game all tournament but they do have a winning mentality, probably dating back to when they were all ‘Romans’. The Germans on the other hand are also a warrior race and know just as well as their opponents that it will be team work that wins this semi final. What is assured is that both teams will trade blows and try to dominate this game which has all the hallmarks of being the best of the competition to date. According to the stats, Germany are rightly flagged as favourites with their current odds floating around their ‘true’ price of 1.97, so absolutely no value in backing them until their price begins to rise.

Italy are more than 30% over-priced but statistically have just a 26.3% chance of winning the game, whilst the draw is the least likely outcome at 24.2% probability. Effectively, this means Italy have a 50.5% chance of avoiding defeat in normal time.

Amazingly, Germany won both halves in 10 (33.3%) of their last 30 competitive matches abroad although they kept a clean sheet in less than half: 14 (46.7%) of the 30 games. On neutral turf the latter figure drops to five (31.3%) clean sheets from 16, meaning their opponents scored in 11 (68.7%) of those games. Italy have allowed only six (20%) clean sheets against them in their equivalent last 30 competitive games abroad, meaning they scored in 24 (80%) of those fixtures. On neutral ground they scored in 10 (66.7%) of their last 15 games.

Italy have a great record against the Germans who have never beaten the Azzurri in seven European Championship or World Cup games from their first competition meeting in 1962. We said earlier in the tournament that the longer Germany’s winning streak continues (10 games in a row now) the greater are the chances of it ending; it is impossible for them to continue winning every game and at some stage they will fail.

Salient statistics for the bet recommendations:

Germany’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 24.3.2007):

• Full-time Result: Germany wins: 24 (80%); Draws 2 (6.7%); Defeats: 4 (13.3%)
• Last 6 Results (most recent first): W-W-W-W-W-W
• Both teams scoring: Yes = 13 times (43.3%)

Germany’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 24.3.2007):

• Full-time Result: Germany wins: 12 (75%); Draws 0 (0%); Defeats: 4 (25%)
• Last 6 Results (most recent first): W-W-W-W-W-L
• Both teams scoring: Yes = 8 times (50%)

Italy’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 9.7.2006):

• Full-time Result: Italy wins: 14 (46.7%); Draws 11 (36.7%); Defeats: 5 (16.7%)
• Last 6 Results (most recent first): D-W-D-D-D-W
• Both teams scoring: Yes = 17 times (56.7%)

Italy’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 9.7.2006):

• Full-time Result: Italy wins: 3 (20%); Draws 6 (40%); Defeats: 6 (40%)
• Last 6 Results (most recent first): D-W-D-D-L-D
• Both teams scoring: Yes = 8 times (53.3%)

Identified Value Bets:

• Value Betting Tip 1: Back Draw No Bet: Italy (Odds: 3.45; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 2.77; Probability: 36.1%). Whilst the probability of success may put a few people off, Germany have not drawn a game on neutral ground in over five years (stretching back further than our statistical analysis); either they win or they lose.

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 2: Back Both Teams To Score: “Yes” (Odds: 2.14; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 1.97; Probability: 50.8%).

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 3: The price for backing the correct score 2-1 to Italy is as high as 19.5 as we write, and holds 120% value with a probability just below 11%. The 1-1 draw is not quite so attractive at 7.6, but the value is still positive at 24% and with almost a 16% chance of coming in. Dutch backing these two correct scores provides combined odds of 5.47, a combined value of 69%, and a 26.5% chance of winning.

Bet WON

• Forward to next match analysis: 1st July 2012 – Euro 2012 Final – Spain v Italy
• Back to previous match analysis: 27th June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Portugal v Spain

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option. For this match we used a modified version of the spreadsheet for international tournament games with little or no head-to-head history.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 26th June, 2012…

Fight to the Death in the Arena:

Whilst Portugal’s recent competition record on neutral ground is impressive with six wins (54.5%) and two draws (18.2%) from 11 games since the start of Euro 2008, Spain’s stats in the same time period are simply stunning with 14 wins (73.7%) and three draws (15.8%) from their last 19 competitive neutral matches.

Looking at the scoring stats from these games the teams are closer, especially considering Spain have played almost twice as many games. Portugal have notched 20 and conceded nine (average 2.64 goals per match) (albeit skewed by a 7-0 thumping of North Korea during WC 2010), whilst Spain have racked up 29 and conceded seven (average 1.89 goals per match).

Spain have kept clean sheets in 17 (56.7%) of their last 30 competitive matches abroad, 13 of these on neutral ground. Portugal can only boast of 12 shutouts (40%) in their equivalent 30 games, with only five of these on neutral turf.

At half-time, Portugal’s last 30 competitive games abroad have seen 17 draws (56.7%); eight of these (72.7%) were on neutral ground (and six were by a 0-0 scoreline). Spain’s equivalent half-time record is 14 draws (46.7%); 11 of these (57.9%) on neutral territory (and 10 of these by a 0-0 scoreline). Therefore, in competitive games at neutral venues both teams seem to save their performances for the second halves of games.

Salient statistics for the bet recommendations:

Portugal’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 6.9.2006):

• Half-time Result – Portugal wins: 8 (26.7%); Draws: 17 (56.7%); Defeats: 5 (16.7%)
• Last 6 Half-time Results (most recent first): D-D-W-D-D-L
• Both teams scoring: No = 16 times (53.3%)

Portugal’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 6.9.2006):

• Half-time Result – Portugal wins: 2 (18.2%); Draws: 8 (72.7%); Defeats: 1 (9.1%)
• Last 6 Half-time Results (most recent first): D-D-L-D-D-D
• Both teams scoring: No = 7 times (63.6%)

Spain’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 14.6.2008):

• Half-time Result – Spain wins: 13 (43.3%); Draws: 14 (46.7%); Defeats: 2 (10%)
• Last 6 Half-time Results (most recent first): W-D-W-D-W-W
• Both teams scoring: No = 19 times (63.3%)

Spain’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 14.6.2008):

• Half-time Result – Spain wins: 6 (31.6%); Draws: 11 (57.9%); Defeats: 2 (10.5%)
• Last 6 Half-time Results (most recent first): W-D-W-D-D-D
• Both teams scoring: No = 15 times (78.9%)

Identified Value Bets:

This is another big game that has been analysed by the masses to such an extent that there is little ‘value’ to be exploited in any of the markets.

• Value Betting Tip 1: Laying the draw at full-time is a good wager to consider at 3.4. The draw ‘back’ price should be 5.41 and the value to be gained is therefore 59% with a probability of winning the lay bet at 81.5%.

Bet LOST

• Value Betting Tip 2: Back Half-time Result = Draw (Odds: 2.1; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 1.71; Probability: 58.5%). Both team’s stats suggest they are ‘2nd half’ teams so we are taking advantage of the market’s pricing ‘error’ here.

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 3: Back Both Teams To Score: “No” (Odds: 1.78; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 1.54; Probability: 64.8%). A slightly higher probability bet reflecting how close this game will probably be.

Bet WON

• Forward to next match analysis: 28th June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Germany v Italy
• Back to previous match analysis: 24th June 2012 – Euro 2012 – England v Italy

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option. For this match we used a modified version of the spreadsheet for international tournament games with little or no head-to-head history.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 23rd June, 2012…

Early Olympic Test for England:

Italy have been saying all week that they are the underdogs for this match and it doesn’t sound like they are bluffing. The stats suggest that they really should be considered the outsiders for this match despite being crowned world champions just six years ago, and paradoxically so, in view of England’s failure to win anything at all in the last 46 years. Something doesn’t quite add-up does it?

England have scored 47 times and conceded 21 in their last 30 competitive games abroad (average 2.27 goals per match), whilst Italy have racked up 40 goals and conceded 29 in their equivalent fixtures (average 2.3 goals per match). They have an impressive 17 (56.7%) clean sheets to Italy’s 10 (33.3%), whilst in just 10 of England’s 30 games (33.3%) both teams have scored, as opposed to Italy’s figure of 17 (56.7%).

England have only been losing at half-time twice (6.7%) during their last 30 games, on both occasions going on to lose at full-time. Italy have been behind eight times (26.7%) at the interval, eventually losing five, drawing one, and winning two. On neutral ground within their last 30 matches abroad, England have been behind at half-time just once (9.1%), a match they eventually lost 4-1 to Germany. Italy have been behind six times (42.9%).

Italy have been under 3.5 goals in 25 (83.3%) of their last 30 competitive matches abroad, whilst England’s record shows 22 (73.3%) such events.

Salient statistics for the bet recommendations:

England’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 13.10.2004):

• England wins: 18 (60%); Draws: 7 (23.3%); Defeats: 5 (16.7%)
• Last 6 Full-time Results (most recent first): W-W-D-D-W-W
• Opposition Clean Sheets: 6 (20%)

England’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 13.10.2004):

• England wins: 5 (45.5%); Draws: 5 (45.5%); Defeats: 1 (9.1%)
• Last 6 Full-time Results (most recent first): W-D-L-W-D-D
• Opposition Clean Sheets: 2 (18.2%)

Italy’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 4.7.2006):

• Italy wins: 14 (46.7%); Draws: 11 (36.7%); Defeats: 5 (16.7%)
• Last 6 Full-time Results (most recent first): W-D-D-D-W-W
• Clean Sheets: 10 (33.3%)

Italy’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 4.7.2006):

• Italy wins: 2 (14.3%); Draws: 9 (64.3%); Defeats: 3 (21.4%)
• Last 6 Full-time Results (most recent first): W-D-D-L-D-D
• Clean Sheets: 3 (21.4%)

Identified Value Bets:

England v Italy has been analysed to death by the masses and the odds on offer in most of the betting categories are either under-valued or bang on the ‘zero’ or ‘true’ odds. Subsequently, we don’t have much more than a couple of tentative suggestions for you.

• Value Betting Tip 1: Back England: Draw No Bet (Odds: 1.98; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 1.6; Probability: 62.5%). This is an ‘insurance’ bet providing: a return of 0.96 to a 1 unit stake should England win; full stake return (i.e. no win or loss) in the event of a draw; full stake loss should Italy win.

Bet VOID

• Value Betting Tip 2: Back Italy Clean Sheet: “No” (Odds: 1.52; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 1.3; Probability: 76.8%). You would be betting on England to score at least 1 goal during the regulation 90 minutes in order to win this wager.

Bet LOST

• Forward to next match analysis: 27th June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Portugal v Spain
• Back to previous match analysis: 23rd June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Spain v France

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option. For this match we used a modified version of the spreadsheet for international tournament games with little or no head-to-head history.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 22nd June, 2012…

Spain 2 Retain or Chance 4 France?

These teams really don’t like each other despite the fact they have to live next door to one another. Historically, neither has been able to gain much of an advantage and in 31 matches since 1922, the records show 13 wins to Spain and 11 to France.

Despite Spain’s current world domination, we believe that France is one of the only teams in the tournament capable of beating them at the top of their game and to be honest, the Spanish have not hit top gear so far at Euro 2012. This may sound ludicrous when looking at both team’s recent records.

Spain have won 24 (80%) of their last 30 competitive matches abroad, losing only two (Switzerland at WC 2010, and USA at the Confederations Cup in 2009). They have scored 61 (1st half: 24, 2nd half: 37), and conceded 18 (1st half: five, 2nd half: 13), with an average of 2.63 goals per game. France have won 13 (43.3%) of their equivalent last 30 games abroad, losing seven (23.3%). They have scored 37 (1st half: 17, 2nd half: 20), and conceded 26 (1st half: 14, 2nd half: 12), with an average of 2.1 goals per game.

Spain have 16 clean sheets (53.3%), whilst France have 15 (50%). Spain have scored and shutout their opponents on 14 occasions (46.7%), whilst France have done this 11 times (36.7%). On neutral territory within the last 30 matches abroad, Spain’s win ratio drops slightly to 73.7% (14 wins in 19), but France’s drops further to just 27.3% (three wins in 11).

However, recent history shows that in the last six competition meetings between these two stretching back to the 1984 European Championships, France have won five and drawn one. In fact, these are the only competition meetings between the teams. Case closed, surely..?!

Salient statistics for the bet recommendations:

Spain’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 10.6.2008):

• Half-time Score: 0-0 = 12 times (40%)
• Both teams to score: No = 18 times (60%)

Spain’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 10.6.2008):

• Half-time Score: 0-0 = 10 times (52.6%)
• Both teams to score: No = 14 times (73.7%)

France’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 27.6.2006):

• Half-time Score: 0-0 = 13 times (43.3%)
• Both teams to score: No = 19 times (63.3%)

France’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 27.6.2006):

• Half-time Score: 0-0 = 5 times (45.5%)
• Both teams to score: No = 7 times (63.6%)

Identified Value Bets:

• Value Betting Tip 1: There is ‘value’ in backing the draw at half-time at odds of 2.16. The ‘true’ odds should be 1.69 and the bet therefore carries value of 28.1% with a probability of succeeding at 59.3%. Spain have drawn 14 times (46.7%) at half-time in their last 30 competitive matches abroad, whilst France have drawn 18 (60%) of their equivalent half-time results.

Bet LOST

• Value Betting Tip 2: Laying the draw at full-time also provides some value at odds of 3.6. The ‘true’ back odds should be nearer 4.05, so this one carries 12.4% value and a probability of 75.3%. However, we disregarded this bet on the grounds that France have drawn 10 of their last 30 competitive matches abroad (33.3%).

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 3: Back Half-time Score: 0-0 (Odds: 2.6; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 2.2; Value 32.8%; Probability: 45.4%).

Bet LOST

• Value Betting Tip 4: Back Both teams to score: “No” (Odds: 1.8; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 1.53; Value 17.3%; Probability: 65.2%).

Bet WON

• Forward to next match analysis: 24th June 2012 – Euro 2012 – England v Italy
• Back to previous match analysis: 22nd June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Germany v Greece

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option. For this match we used a modified version of the spreadsheet for international tournament games with little or no head-to-head history.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 21st June, 2012…

Lahm & Schweini to the Slaughter:

This is the most one-sided of the quarter final matches: everyone thinks so, the bookmakers and betting exchanges believe so, and not many will put their neck on the chopping block for Greece in this game.

The Germans have lost only four of their last 30 competitive matches abroad (13.3%), and two of those were against Spain. Of the other 26 games, 23 were won (76.7%), and three drawn (10%). They have troubled the scorekeepers 62 times and have conceded just 22 (average goals per match: 2.8). Like a speeding juggernaut, they are coming into this fixture off the back of nine straight competitive wins on neutral soil/away from home. Phew!

Greece’s last 30 competitive games abroad comprise 14 wins (46.7%), seven draws (23.3%), and nine defeats (30%), with 32 goals scored and 25 conceded (average goals per match: 1.9). Despite this more sober record and the whole planet (except Greek fans of course!) expecting a crushing German win, Greece have not been rolled-over too often in the last seven years. In fact they’ve only lost four games by two clear goals, all by a 2-0 scoreline, and Friday’s match should be a lot closer than the ongoing autosuggestion.

The law of averages says that Germany will fail to win a match at some stage and the longer their run continues the more likely it is to end. It’s like car insurance: after so many claim free years in a row your premium paradoxically rises purely because insurers can see you defying the accident statistics. As they say in Germany, “Everything has an end: only the sausage has two”…

Salient statistics for the bet recommendations:

Germany’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 15.11.2006):

• Half-time Result: Draw = 12 times (40%)
• Full-time Scores: 0-0 (1 = 3.3%); 2-2 (none); Winning 3-0 (1 = 3.3%); Winning 3-1 (2 = 6.7%)
• Last 6 Full-time Correct Scores (most recent first): 2-1 (win); 2-1 (win); 1-0 (win); 3-1 (win); 3-1 (win); 2-1 (win)

Germany’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 15.11.2006):

• Half-time Result: Draw = 6 times (40%)
• Full-time Scores: 0-0 (none); 2-2 (none); Winning 3-0 (none); Winning 3-1 (none)
• Last 6 Full-time Correct Scores (most recent first): 2-1 (win); 2-1 (win); 1-0 (win); 3-2 (win); 0-1 (loss); 4-0 (win)

Greece’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 19.6.2005):

• Half-time Result: Draw = 15 times (50%)
• Full-time Scores: 0-0 (2 = 6.7%); 2-2 (1 = 3.3%); Losing 3-0 (none); Losing 3-1 (none)
• Last 6 Full-time Correct Scores (most recent first): 1-0 (win); 1-2 (loss); 1-1 (draw); 2-1 (win); 1-1 (draw); 1-0 (win)

Greece’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 19.6.2005):

• Half-time Result: Draw = 5 times (50%)
• Full-time Scores: 0-0 (1 = 10%); 2-2 (none); Losing 3-0 (none); Losing 3-1 (none)
• Last 6 Full-time Correct Scores (most recent first): 1-0 (win); 1-2 (loss); 0-2 (loss); 2-1 (win); 0-2 (loss); 1-2 (loss)

Identified Value Bets:

This match is almost totally devoid of ‘value’ bets as we write. The favourites, Germany, are vastly under-priced in most markets due to their high statistical likelihoods and Greece are over-priced wherever their chances of success are low. This has been the toughest game of the tournament for us yet and we know that all you ‘value’ betting connoisseurs out there will understand our predicament.

• Value Betting Tip 1: Back Half-time Result: Draw (Odds: 2.66; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 2.22; Value 19.7%; Probability: 45%).

Bet LOST

• Value Betting Tip 2: “Dutch” Lay Full-time Correct Scores: 0-0 Draw; 2-2 Draw; Germany 3-0 Greece; Germany 3-1 Greece (with weighted stakes for equal risk/return). Combined Lay Odds: 3.80; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 12.0; Value 315.7%; Probability: 91.7%.

Bet WON

• Forward to next match analysis: 23rd June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Spain v France
• Back to previous match analysis: 21st June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Czech Republic v Portugal

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option. For this match we used a modified version of the spreadsheet for international tournament games with little or no head-to-head history.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 20th June, 2012…

Banking on a Blank Czech:

The Czechs have 17 clean sheets in their last 30 competitive matches abroad (56.7%), and they owe a lot to their inspirational goalkeeper, Petr Čech, for this statistic. On the contrary, only six teams have shutout the Czech Republic in these games. The Portuguese can only count 11 shutouts in their equivalent last 30 games abroad (36.7%), whilst eight teams have prevented them from scoring.

The Czechs have won 16 (53.3%), drawn six (20%), and lost only eight (26.7%) of their 30 matches, whilst Portugal have won only 14 (46.7%), drawn eight (26.7%), and lost eight (26.7%).

Over their last 30 competitive matches abroad, the Czechs have scored 49 and conceded 27, whilst the Portuguese have scored 47 and conceded 27. The half-time record reads Czech Republic scored 22 conceded seven, and Portugal scored 18 and conceded 15.

In terms of these performance and goal records, the Czechs have a better recent history so, why are Portugal heavy favourites for this game? Answer: perhaps the people’s perception of one Cristiano Ronaldo, and nothing at all to do with statistics…

Salient statistics for the bet recommendations:

Czech Republic’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 12.10.2005):

• Full-time Over 1.5 Goals: 23 times (76.7%)
• Full-time Correct Scores: Losing 1-0 (none); Drawing 1-1 (1 = 3.3%); Drawing 2-2 (2 = 6.7%)
• Last 6 Full-time Correct Scores (most recent first): 0-1 (win); 1-2 (win); 4-1 (loss); 0-1 (win); 1-4 (win); 2-2 (draw)

Czech Republic’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 12.10.2005):

• Full-time Over 1.5 Goals: 7 times (100%)
• Full-time Correct Scores: Losing 1-0 (none); Drawing 1-1 (none); Drawing 2-2 (none)
• Last 6 Full-time Correct Scores (most recent first): 1-2 (win); 4-1 (loss); 3-2 (loss); 3-1 (loss); 2-0 (loss); 2-0 (loss)

Portugal’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 8.7.2006):

• Full-time Over 1.5 Goals: 21 times (70%)
• Full-time Correct Scores: Winning 1-0 (2 = 6.7%); Drawing 1-1 (4 = 13.3%); Drawing 2-2 (none)
• Last 6 Full-time Correct Scores (most recent first): 1-2 (win); 2-3 (win); 1-0 (loss); 0-0 (draw); 2-1 (loss); 0-4 (win)

Portugal’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 8.7.2006):

• Full-time Over 1.5 Goals: 6 times (60%)
• Full-time Correct Scores: Winning 1-0 (none); Drawing 1-1 (none); Drawing 2-2 (none)
• Last 6 Full-time Correct Scores (most recent first): 1-2 (win); 2-3 (win); 1-0 (loss); 1-0 (loss); 0-0 (draw); 0-7 (win)

Identified Value Bets:

• Value Betting Tip 1: There is good value (61.3%) laying the draw at full-time at odds of 3.72, and the calculated success probability for this event is 83.3%. The draw should be more realistically priced at 6.0.

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 2: Another interesting bet is backing over 1.5 goals at half-time, which carries value of 31% at the current odds of 3.2, albeit with just a 41% chance of success.

Bet LOST

• Value Betting Tip 3: Back Full-time Over 1.5 Goals (Odds: 1.42; Zero or ‘true’ back odds: 1.36; Value: 14.48%; Probability 76.7%).

Bet LOST

• Value Betting Tip 4: “Dutch” Lay Full-time Correct Scores: Czech Republic 0-1 Portugal; 1-1, 2-2 (weighted stakes for equal risk/return). Combined Lay Odds: 3.26; Zero or ‘true’ back odds: 13.33; Value 408.6%; Probability: 92.5%.

Bet LOST

• Forward to next match analysis: 22nd June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Germany v Greece
• Back to previous match analysis: 19th June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Sweden v France

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option. For this match we used a modified version of the spreadsheet for international tournament games with little or no head-to-head history.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 18th June, 2012…

Swedish Pride at Stake:

The last seven competitive matches Sweden have played abroad have seen a minimum of three goals per game with four containing five goals, and the other three matches with three goals apiece (average 3.71 per game). Their last seven competitive games on neutral soil have witnessed a total of 19 goals (average 2.71 per game).

France’s recent record is much tighter with a total of only 13 in their last seven competitive games abroad (average 1.86 per match), and 13 in their last seven equivalent games on neutral ground.

In their last 30 competitive matches abroad, France have kept 16 clean sheets (53.3%), and have scored whilst shutting-out their opponents on 12 occasions (40%). Sweden’s comparative record is 13 clean sheets (43.3%), whilst ‘winning to nil’ nine times (30%).

Sweden have nothing to play for other than pride and as a result we feel they will go into this match a little more relaxed. They are a tall, physical side and France will offer a similar proposition to the smaller, more deft players of England.

Salient statistics for the bet recommendations:

Sweden’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 26.6.2004):

• Full-time Sweden wins: 14 (46.7%); Draws: 5 (16.7%); Defeats: 11 (36.7%)
• Full-time Last 6 Results (most recent first): L-L-W-W-L-W
• Half-time Sweden wins: 8 (26.7%); Draws: 15 (50%); Defeats: 7 (23.3%)
• Half-time Last 6 Results (most recent first): L-D-W-D-L-W
• Full-time Under 3.5 Goals: 23 times (76.7%)

Sweden’s competitive matches on neutral soil within their last 30 abroad in all competitions (since 26.6.2004):

• Full-time Sweden wins: 2 (22.2%); Draws: 3 (33.3%); Defeats: 4 (44.4%)
• Full-time Last 6 Results (most recent first): L-L-L-W-L-D
• Half-time Sweden wins: 0 (0%); Draws: 5 (55.6%); Defeats: 4 (44.4%)
• Half-time Last 6 Results (most recent first): L-L-D-D-L-L
• Full-time Under 3.5 Goals: 7 times (77.8%)

France’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 23.6.2006):

• Full-time France wins: 14 (46.7%); Draws: 10 (33.3%); Defeats: 6 (20%)
• Full-time Last 6 Results (most recent first): W-D-D-W-D-W
• Half-time France wins: 7 (23.3%); Draws: 18 (60%); Defeats: 5 (16.7%)
• Half-time Last 6 Results (most recent first): D-D-D-W-D-W
• Full-time Under 3.5 Goals: 24 times (80%)

France’s competitive matches on neutral soil within their last 30 abroad in all competitions (since 23.6.2006):

• Full-time France wins: 4 (36.4%); Draws: 4 (36.4%); Defeats: 3 (27.3%)
• Full-time Last 6 Results (most recent first): D-L-D-L-L-D
• Half-time France wins: 1 (9.1%); Draws: 8 (72.7%); Defeats: 2 (18.2%)
• Half-time Last 6 Results (most recent first): D-D-D-L-L-D
• Full-time Under 3.5 Goals: 9 times (81.8%)

Identified Value Bets:

There is a fair bit of ‘value’ around in this game:

• Value Betting Tip 1: Backing both teams to score = “No” gives 33.2% value at a market price of 2.1, combined with a probability of success at 63.4%.

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 2: Laying France at half-time is also good value at 66.3% based on the current lay price of 2.4. The chance of this bet coming in is 74.9%.

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 3: Lay Full-time Result: France (Odds: 1.66; Zero or ‘true’ back odds: 2.44; Value: 50.4%; Probability 59%).

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 4: Back Half-time Result: Draw (Odds: 2.5; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 1.68; Value: 39.4%; Probability 59.6%).

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 5: Back Full-time Under 3.5 Goals (Odds: 1.4; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 1.26; Value 11.5%; Probability: 79.1%).

Bet WON

• Forward to next match analysis: 21st June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Czech Republic v Portugal
• Back to previous match analysis: 19th June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Ukraine v England

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option. For this match we used a modified version of the spreadsheet for international tournament games with little or no head-to-head history.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 18th June, 2012…

England Draw Pain in Ukraine:

Both teams have to go for the win on Tuesday night: Ukraine just to qualify at England’s expense and England hoping to top the group and avoid a clash with Spain in the quarter-finals.

It’s a night when the fate of both nations could ride on the shoulders of their number one strikers with Wayne Rooney returning from suspension for England but Andriy Shevchenko rated only 50/50 for this game after aggravating a knee injury against France. It could also be a night which sees a repetition of Euro 2008, with both co-hosts bowing out of the tournament at the group phase.

Both teams have similar records over their last 30 competitive matches (Ukraine at home, England abroad). Ukraine have won 15 (50%), drawn 10 (33.3%), and lost only five (16.7%), scoring 47 goals and conceding 25 (average goals per game 2.40). England have won 18 (60%), drawn seven (23.3%), and lost only five (16.7%), scoring 48 goals and conceding 22 (average goals per game 2.33).

Ukraine have 15 clean sheets (50%), as opposed to England’s 16 (53.3%); Ukraine have scored and shutout their opponents on 11 occasions (36.7%), whilst England have managed this 13 times (43.3%).

The stats are close all across the board and both teams have even played under 3.5 goals in 22 of their last 30 competitive matches each (again, Ukraine at home, England abroad).

Salient statistics for the bet recommendations:

Ukraine’s last 30 competitive home matches in all competitions (since 2.9.2000):

• Half-time Score 0-0: 13 times (43.3%)
• Last 6 Half-time Scores (most recent first): 0-0, 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-1
• Both Teams to Score = No: 18 times (60%)

England’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 8.9.2004):

• Half-time Score 0-0: 11 times (36.7%)
• Last 6 Half-time Scores (most recent first): 0-1, 1-1, 1-2, 0-3, 0-2, 0-1
• Both Teams to Score = No: 19 times (63.3%)

Identified Value Bets:

This is a particularly tight match to call and the market odds indicate it has been analysed to death with hardly any value around.

• Value Betting Tip 1: Backing the draw at half-time is a wager worth making at the current odds of 2.28, which represent ‘value’ of 17.8% combined with a probability of winning the bet at 51.7%.

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 2: Back Half-time Score: 0-0 (Odds: 3.1; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 2.5; Value: 46.7%; Probability 40%).

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 3: Back Both Teams to Score = “No” (Odds: 2.2; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 1.62; Value 36.9%; Probability: 61.7%).

Bet WON

• Forward to next match analysis: 19th June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Sweden v France
• Back to previous match analysis: 18th June 2012 – Italy v Republic of Ireland