This book is unlike any other you will find elsewhere. It contains insights into how mathematics and statistics are applied to bookmaking, information that is rarely found in the public domain.
Editor’s Foreword on the Over Under Goal Betting Course
Have you ever wondered how bookmakers set their odds? They must be pretty good at it to remain trading in a high risk industry built on small margins!
It is common knowledge that the gambling industry as a whole relies to a large extent on the ignorance of its customers and, only by thinking and acting like a bookmaker, will you ever be able to compete with them on a level playing field.
Here, the age-old adage applies, ‘if you can’t beat them, join them’. Adapting to this mind-set and running your betting venture like a business for profit are precisely the intentions of this course.
This approach may sometimes challenge the mind-set of the average football punter, but learning how to calculate odds accurately is the single most important tool for identifying bets containing ‘value’. Betting with value on your side is key to successful betting.
If you are new to gambling, or can already claim to be an occasional or seasoned bettor, then we recommend that you master this course, before considering your next bet.
All of the course lessons are presented in a pragmatic, easy-to-follow, step-by-step fashion, with no more than passing respect towards the sport of football and the passion of its fans. After all, this book has been written by a lady who loves maths but dislikes football…!
Over under Goal betting
Always wanted to make your own over 2.5 goals predictions? Do you actually know odds calculation and understand the mathematics of bookmaking?
Soccerwidow’s Over/Under Betting Course takes you through probabilities, odds, value, profit and loss calculations, and explains these technical terms in easy-to-follow language.
There are plenty of exercises to help hone your skills, and you will also learn to download historical data and analyse it using calculation software such as Excel.
The course explains in detail how to evaluate teams and compile your own ‘true’ odds for the Over/Under betting market, which can then be compared to the market prices.
You will then be taught the process of calculating value, clustering data, understanding probabilities, and computing potential profits and losses from anticipated bets.
Betting for Profit
What The Course Offers
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Statistical Terminology
Introduction to some of the most fundamentally important mathematical and statistical concepts.
You will learn distributions and deviations from the mean in the context of goals scored in a league during a season or set of consecutive seasons.
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Betting Odds Calculation
Do you really think a bookmaker sets odds based on team news, injuries, suspensions, recent form, etc.?
Find out how bookmakers set their odds and how to calculate your own odds. The art of odds calculation is dissected in graphic detail.
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Risk Control
Important financial measurements such as Yield, ROI and profitability are explained in great detail.
The terms ‘mathematical advantage’ and ‘value’ of a bet are covered. Here, you will also learn how to calculate the necessary size of a starting bank.
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Market Dynamics
A brief excursion through the market dynamics of bookmakers and beyond to explain why value can actually be found.
We explain in great detail how bookmakers set their odds and the constraints they have that create pricing ‘errors’, and how to exploit them.
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Cluster Tables
The course teaches you cluster grouping for creating a correction factor to take public opinion into consideration.
You will also learn how to use the cluster tables accompanying the course and apply the knowledge gained to utilise them for successful betting.
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Finding Value
Everything learned in the course is collated and turned into practical and powerful portfolio betting tools.
Ultimately, two different methods of selecting ‘value’ bets are presented, both of which can be used independently of each other, or in tandem.
Author’s Introduction
This course is designed to give you the essential, fundamental knowledge necessary to understand odds calculation and the bookmaker market. It deals with relatively simple descriptive statistics and teaches you how to look at data sets, calculate your own probabilities and odds, analyse the market odds on offer, and make informed decisions when predicting football results.
Amongst the topics we will work through are distributions, deviations, graphs and charts, odds calculation, financial terminologies, risk management, and of course, how to identify ‘value’ in the betting market.
You will be surprised to learn that this is not only possible, but actually quite easy. You may be astonished to learn how bookmakers set their odds and operate. You will find out how odds are manipulated during the ante post period, not by the bookmakers, but by the punters themselves.
At the end of this course you should be able to predict Over/Under goals with an uncanny degree of accuracy, impress your friends, and astound yourself.
About The Book
The Science of Statistics to Predict Football Results
There are no assumptions, guesses or emotional explanations; everything is based on and proven by numbers.
Easy-to-follow Explanations in Plain Understandable English
This course teaches odds calculation whilst bringing back an enthusiasm for numbers to those of you previously alienated by maths.
BONUS: Secrets of Successful Picks Revealed
Two different methods of selecting ‘value’ for your portfolio are included, both of which can be used independently of each other, or in tandem.
