Although the rules for roulette tables are designed in such a way that the bank makes money in the long run, it must be said that roulette is a pretty fair game. If you play with only small amounts (relative to your chips), then you can gamble for a long time at the roulette table whilst having a lot of fun.

This article shows you how to calculate probabilities in roulette, including the odds for each type of bet, allowing you to analyse all the possible variations.

Probabilities – A Brief Introduction

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Foreground: donskarpo,
Background: Nata789

The calculation of roulette wheel probabilities is very simple.

Let us take the classic example of a dice with the numbers one to six. How large is the probability that the next throw is the number five?

Of course, it is 1/6 or 16.67%: only one side of the dice has the number five, one of six numbers in total.

And how big is the probability of getting a number that is at least four?

The answer is 50%: there are three possible throws (numbers four, five and six), meaning a three in six chance, or 1/2.

If you have understood these simple examples then you will also be able to understand the probabilities expected in roulette.

Roulette Probabilities

Roulette has a total of 36 numbers, one to 36. The 36 numbers are divided into the following equal sized ‘sets’:

• 18 red numbers (Rouge) and 18 black (Noir)
• 18 even numbers (Pair) and 18 odd (Impair)
• 18 numbers in the lower half (Manque) and 18 in the higher half (Passe)

Lastly, there is an additional stand-alone number, which is the green “zero”, making 37 numbered zones in total. The zero is not included in any of the three sets above.

So, if you are gambling on any of the three sets, in other words;

• red or black
• odd or even
• low or high

then your likelihood to win is 18/37 = 48.65%. If your bet wins, your stake is returned plus 100%. In effect you double your money as each of these sets is an ‘evens’ bet.

Assuming the frequency of results is uniform (i.e. each number appears once during every 37 rotations), the bank will win all bets placed on the three sets every 37th round, when the green zero arrives. Thus, players lose an average of 1/37 of their stakes (assuming that they always play with the same stake per round).

Putting this another way, imagine you are betting on both the “red” and “black” sets at the same time. On average, 36 out of 37 times, the roulette ball will land on a number from one to 36. You are backing all 36 numbers and will lose one bet each time but receive full compensation on the other. (A zero sum game). But you will make a total loss (lose both bets) when the ball lands on zero, and this is precisely the case in 1/37 of the games.

So you can say that with simple chance you should expect returns of 36/37 of your stake money, which is the expected value in roulette (97.3%). In other words, for every 100 units staked you will receive back an average of only 97.3 units.

There are some casinos which are a little fairer to players who rely on simple chance. In such a casino when betting on, for example, red, if a zero appears your stake is not lost immediately but is left to ride on the next spin of the wheel.

In this case, the stake is returned to you (without winnings) if the next spin is “red”. The expectancy value for this type of house increases a gambler’s chances to 98.65%, or 98.65 units returned per 100 unit stake. Wagering with 100 units in a session will cost an average of 1.35 units (the house “edge”). You’ll find further maths and explanations in Wikipedia here.

Probability Table for Roulette Table Bets:

Expected Sequences for Simple Probabilities

If you witness “red” five times in a row, what do you think should come next? Red or black?

Many will believe that the chances for “black” are now higher. Black has not appeared for a while so it must surely arrive again soon to ‘balance out the frequency’.

Unfortunately, this thinking is incorrect. Following a series of “red” five times in a row, the probability for black always remains the same: 18/37 = 48.65%. Just remember the roulette wheel has no memory – it simply does not know what the last number was.

This is why it makes no sense to write down the sequence of red and black. (Surely you must have observed gamblers in casinos engaging in this habit?). It is impossible to detect even the smallest patterns in the roulette wheel because the ball has no memory and will always churn out numbers completely at random.

However, it is unlikely that “red” will appear six time in a row. The chance of six reds in a row is
(18/37) ^ 6 = 1.3% (i.e. 48.65% x 48.65% x 48.65% x 48.65% x 48.65% x 48.65%). (For more explanations see also our combinatorics article). By the way, this is approximately half the chance that any one single number appears (1/37 = 2.7%) and, of course, it is just as unlikely that there will be red numbers five times in a row followed by a black number; the probability for this sequence is also 1.3%.

Examples of Probabilities

To give you a better feel for roulette probabilities, here are a few examples. Here we use “r” for red and “b” for black:

• r or b: 18/37 = 48.65%
• rr or bb: 18/37 x 18/37 = 24% (two reds in a row or two blacks in a row)
• rb or br: 36/37 x 18/37 = 47.3% (one colour followed by the other)
• rrr or bbb: 18/37 x 18/37 x 18/37 = 11.5%
• rbr or brb: 18/37 x 18/37 x 18/37 = 11.5%
• rrrr or bbbb: 18/37 x 18/37 x 18/37 x 18/37 = 5.6%

Never confuse these probabilities with the “conditional probabilities”. The chance of red four times in a row is 5.6% but if you come to the table immediately after a red number has appeared, the probability that you will witness a further three reds (making a total of four times in a row) is 11.5% – purely because you will be observing only a series of three rounds.

The Law of Small Numbers

The law of small numbers was first conceived in 1898 by Ladislaus Bortkiewicz (1868-1931). His book is still available in German, free of copyright, and can be downloaded as a PDF or Kindle version. An English language introductory text is also available.

The Law of Small Numbers is not exactly bedtime reading material, but here is a brief summary. As roulette is a game of repetitions the “law of a third” and the “law of two-thirds” should become evident as play continues.

If there are exactly 37 rotations performed at roulette (as many as there are different numbers), according to the book:

• approximately one third of the numbers (around 12-15 numbers), will not be hit at all
• approximately one third of the numbers will appear exactly once
• approximately one third of the numbers will appear twice or more
• approximately two thirds of the numbers will appear at least once

The Law of Large Numbers

The law of large numbers states that with an increase of repetitions the actual observed frequency comes closer to the theoretically calculated probabilities.

Although it is possible to observe on one particular evening, for example, red numbers coming up 60 times in a row, and another evening 40 times black, ultimately, when you observe the distribution of red and black over a longer period, the frequency will be closer to 50:50.

Therefore, there is no roulette system with which you can beat the probabilities. It may seem for a short time that a certain system functions but, in the long run, you will lose money with every system because roulette rules are designed in a way that the casino earns money. Period. Bear this in mind when you play roulette, but it is still fun!

We hope that this article about roulette and its probabilities has helped you. Now it’s time to enjoy. All you need is a serious and decent online casino where you can test your newly acquired knowledge. Choosing a suitable casino is best done via a comparison site. Here is one: Australia Online Casinos – Check it out, choose your casino and then put your roulette theory into practice!

This compilation contains some of the best quotes we could find related to gambling, luck and money.

Since humans have existed they have gambled away their fortunes, and it is probably the fate of man to continue gambling so long as there is anything left to bet on…

Photo: Steve Punter (Wikimedia Commons)

Gambling and Luck Quotations

These quotations are sorted chronologically and appear quite representative of gambling as it has developed over the last 2,000 years or more…

Even the term ‘Stake’, at least so long as it is money related, is easily understandable.

Whatever level your stake is, there are only two options: you either lose the bet and your stake, or you win the bet, retrieving your stake and adding to it your winnings.

However, the term ‘Odds’ is far more difficult for most bettors, especially as odds are connected to market prices, fluctuations, probabilities, expectations, etc.

Hand on heart, can YOU reliably define the terms “bet”, “odds”, and “stake”?

What is a BET?

Definition of ‘Bet’: Technically speaking, a ‘bet’ is an agreement between two parties that the one who makes an incorrect prediction about an uncertain outcome will forfeit something stipulated to the other – a wager.

Betting is all about risking something, usually a sum of money, against the money of someone else based on the outcome of a future event, such as the result of a race or other competitive event.

What are ODDS?

The term, ‘odds’, is somewhat ambiguous.

Here are two definitions from well-known dictionaries:

Macmillan Dictionary: The chances that are used for calculating how much money you will get if the person or thing you bet on wins a race or competition.

Oxford Dictionary: The ratio between the amounts staked by the parties to a bet, based on the expected probability either way.

The problem with the above definitions (and many other definitions found in dictionaries) is that odds are not necessarily connected to the real chances of something happening, not even to ‘expected’ probabilities.

Just think of British odds, European odds, and US Moneyline odds.

British odds show the net return of a bet, European odds display the net return of a bet plus the original stake, and US Moneyline odds exhibit the money wagered either to win 100 units, or the money which will be won from a 100 unit stake.

Another deviant example is that bookmakers adjust their odds to public opinion in order to balance their books.

Therefore, it is simply incorrect to say that ‘odds’ display the chances of something happening. Odds are not even necessarily based on expected probabilities.

Learning Point: There is NO connection between the market odds of a bet and the real probabilities of the event occurring.

What does the term STAKE mean?

Definition of ‘Stake’: Money or property risked on the result of a horse race, card game, match outcome, etc.

Stake (or ‘wager’ in America), is straightforward terminology.

You bet with your friend on a game of pool, and stake £5 each. Whoever wins the game gets £5 from the other party, and whoever loses is £5 poorer.

In betting, the stake (or ‘wager’) usually means money, which is countable.

The concept of stake becomes much more complicated if property is wagered, such as houses, cars, or in some countries even wives! If you gamble property then you not only have to calculate the true probabilities of a bet to compute the odds, but also convert the staked property into a monetary value.

In these cases bets are very often lopsided and unfair, with a huge advantage to the person who is better in maths than the other. (Read an example: Arsenal fan staked his house on a bet with a Manchester United fan, who offered his wife and Toyota car in return )

Bet, Odds, and Stake – Conclusion

The only honest advice I can give – Do not bet if you do not understand odds!

Unless money is no object, few people will go shopping and load their basket with goods without checking and comparing the prices of different brands. Most of us need to ensure we have enough money available to pay for the purchases, and some of us like to ensure we are getting the best value for the money we pay.

Understanding Odds is CRITICAL! If you constantly go shopping without paying attention to the prices (ignoring the significance of odds), or do not bother comparing brands before buying them (failing to shop around for the best odds), you will certainly end up paying more than others (failing to capitalise on your betting investments), and in the long run be able to buy fewer products for your money (losing more money than you win).

Always remember: Odds are the price for a bet, they very rarely stand for the real probabilities, or chances.

Of course, odds available in the market can be converted into their ‘implied’ probabilities, which can then be compared to your own calculations of the ‘real’ expected probabilities, and vice versa.

If you want to become a winner you MUST understand odds and be able to compare and distinguish between the implied probabilities suggested by the odds offered in the market and the real (or true) probabilities suggested by historical statistics. There is no alternative – a lucky gambler is never lucky all the time.

If you wish to learn odds calculation, please check out:

Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Store

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In the 1960’s the US mathematician Edward O. Thorp published a ground-breaking book entitled ‘Beat the Dealer’, which ultimately earned him the nickname of ‘the father of card counting’. In his book he revealed a revolutionary point scoring system that has since been successfully used by professional and amateur card players for more than two generations.

Counting systems have since been further developed and there is now a plethora of more or less similar techniques, some more complex than others, but in the end all giving the gambler an advantage over the house.

Card Counting is actually pretty simple maths. The only real skill necessary is to be able to add-up and count in your head like a machine gun. Not everyone can do it, but it goes without saying that the less effort you need to make on the counting, the more concentrated you can become on appearing as just another ‘normal’ player at the table.

The High-Low System (also known as Hi-Lo)

One of the most profitable and perhaps the easiest way to count cards is known as the Hi-Lo strategy (allocating high and low cards in the game a value). This system is basically a ‘Running Count’ technique in which each card has a certain value.

The system is used to identify when the ratio of cards already played with high value is unbalanced compared to cards with low value.

Cards such as Tens, Picture Cards and Aces, not only increase the chance that a Blackjack is due, but also increase the chance of future hands which are worth at least 20.

A deck which includes many high cards brings the player into a very profitable situation because it increases the chance that the dealer loses.

In a situation where the majority of cards left in the shoe have a value between 2 and 6, the dealer has a significant advantage over the player.

The more high cards left in the deck to be played, the higher the chance that the dealer loses.

(1) How Hi-Lo Works

From the moment the first card of a new mixed deck is dealt, the player begins to count the card values (+1, 0, -1).

A low card (2, 3, 4, 5, 6) increases the count by one point, a high card (10, J, Q, K, A) decreases the count by one point. This is called the ‘running count’.

The cards 7-9 are neutral and are not counted in the Hi-Lo system.

So, your count may look like this in any round:

Count the total number for this round, and you should come up with +1.

This count means that more cards with a low value have already been played, meaning there are more high value cards in the remaining deck (10, J, Q, K, A). However, you need to keep in mind that the count cannot be very accurate after just a few hands. It is important to collect more information for better accuracy and greater advantage over the house.

If you are trying Blackjack card counting for the first time, you can just flip through a whole set of cards. If you count correctly then you will end up with a ‘0’ at the end of this exercise.

The first few times may be trial and error, but the more you practice, the faster and more accurate you will become. After a while you can try to count two cards at once, just by looking at the hands. If you practice long enough then you will almost automatically recognize various card combinations and their value. And that’s the great thing about this simple Hi-Lo strategy. It’s very straightforward and easy.

It will not be long before you can apply this simple technique and at the same time play blackjack at normal speed. You need to keep the current value in mind and at the same time focus on the game without drawing attention to yourself.

If you have not yet mastered the counting system by heart and need to think long until you get to the current value, then you will stand out to the dealers and security staff because they are trained to detect counting behaviour.

(2) The True Count

After you have mastered the counting itself, the next step is to know when it’s worthwhile to start staking and how much to bet. As already mentioned, the rule of thumb is that the closer the table is to the end of the deck, the more predictable the outcome.

Here, a new factor comes into play known as ‘True Count’. Divide the running count by the estimated number of remaining decks in the card shoe. This is the part that beginners get confused with.

Let’s look at an example.

The running count is +7 and there are about 4 decks left. The true count would be 7/4 = 1.75. Round that up to 2, keep it simple.

Converting the Running Count into the True Count is about getting a more accurate estimation of whether or not you have an advantage.

These days you won’t find many single-deck games, so it’s likely that you will be playing on a multiple deck table. These can range from two to eight decks so you will have to estimate the number of remaining decks.

One way of determining how many cards have already been dealt with is to look at the discard tray on the table (if there is one). Practice estimating at home by piling decks of cards on top of each other.

Once you have estimated how many decks have been played you then need to subtract this number from the number of decks the game started with. This is the number of decks remaining.

Here is an example for a six-deck game.

You have a running count of 12. You look at the discard tray and see that approximately three decks have been played meaning that there must be still three decks remaining. You divide the running count of 12 by 3 to get a true count of 4.

(3) What to Stake and When

Now it gets interesting…

This is where card counting becomes more art than science. Some blackjack books give rigid rules on how this should be done. However, casino employees are also aware of the published techniques and certain betting patterns can easily betray a card counter.

The key to making money as a card counter is raising your bets when the deck is ‘hot’, and lowering them when the deck is ‘cold’. The variation in size is known as the ‘Betting Spread’. The range of an individual’s betting spread depends on a lot of personal factors such as bank size, comfort level, proficiency in card counting, knowing the rules, etc.

However, in order to avoid undue attention from casino staff a bet spread between 1 and 5 units is recommended. This means that you should bet 1 unit for a +1 count, all neutral counts, and all negative counts. A +2 count means 2 units staked, a +3 count means 3 units, a +4 count means 4 units. Anything over +4 signifies a bet of 5 units. Exceeding 5 units is likely to attract unwanted attention from the casino hierarchy.

The size of the individual unit depends on your preferences. To stay under the radar you should identify a range between table minimum and maximum.

The player must estimate the top end of the count. In other words, how high may the count get in that session? For simplification, we estimate the maximum count at 10. This means that the top end of the player’s personal range is £100, a multiple of £10.

And so on…

Buy It Now at AMAZON

Of course, it becomes even more interesting if the table is only approached when the deck is ‘hot’, but this requires a team of card counters.

This may sound unreal, but anyone who has seen the film ‘21’ (2008), has watched a good, entertaining movie and also witnessed that a team strategy can be successful.

With card counting it is actually possible to gain a decisive advantage over the casino. Many have tried and with great success!

Card Counting Countermeasures

Casinos are not stupid. Although card counting is not legally prohibited or punishable, neither under German law nor in the US, it does not mean that casinos turn a blind eye to card counters.

Some of the more common countermeasures include:

• The number of card packs used in a shoe is increased. Initially, Blackjack was played with just one deck, later with four, and now mostly with six decks
• The shoe is never played to exhaustion. After a quarter or a third of cards are played there is a ‘cut off’ and the shoe is reshuffled.
• The player’s staking choices are limited, for example:
  (a) Double down is only permitted on hard totals of 9, 10, or 11
  (b) No doubling allowed after splitting two cards of the same denomination

The above countermeasures certainly increase the house edge, but card counting players are still able to play winning systems in spite of them.

Therefore, many European casinos now use ‘Shuffle Stars’, which are special card shoes. Played cards are immediately mixed back in with the other cards making each round independent of the next, like in roulette. Hence, card counting has become not only difficult but a thing of the past in most casinos today.

If you type into Google the exact phrase, “how to get rich in a short time” you will find around 37.5 million search results. That’s 37.5 million web pages tackling the topic of finding wealth. In comparison, the expression, “how to live a happy married life” produces only 4 million results.

Mathematically speaking this equates to just 1 in every 10 websites writing about a “happy life” whilst the other 9 are trying to show a route to riches! This is certainly an indicator of which is more important to the public!

Collage of Shutterstock images; Foreground: stocknadia, Background: Nuno Monteiro

As Soccerwidow focuses on gambling, finances, and football betting in particular, we have compiled a list of advisory tips on the subject of how do you get rich with football betting (around 580k Google results). Of course, the following elements can be applied to any form of betting or gambling.

Top 10 Tips on How to Get Rich with Betting

1. What is your Perception of being Rich?

What is your acceptable level of wealth before you consider yourself rich? Without knowing the answer to this question, you will be unable to set wealth targets or plan for how much money you wish to earn over the time period you have set yourself. Obviously, the answers are different for everyone but the question is relevant to us all.

2. “SMART” Targets

Success with online football betting should be planned for as thoroughly as setting-up a business. It requires a well-thought out and methodical approach. There is no get-rich-quick scheme or system and commitment to your chosen strategy must be applied long-term. Targets have to be ‘SMART’: Specific; Measurable; Achievable; Realistic; Timed.

3. Identify your Target Leagues and do your Homework

At Soccerwidow, we only analyse and bet on league games with plenty of historical statistics as cup matches tend to be one-off events, are more volatile, and include too many upsets or giant-killing episodes.

Which leagues do you want to research? Do your homework; is there liquidity with the bookmakers or betting exchanges for your chosen markets to allow the size of bets you wish to make?

4. Understand the Different types of Bets

Absolute clarity and a firm grasp of the differences between back and lay bets is needed. This is especially the case when trading or hedging for a profit with little or no intended risk of loss involved.

5. Excel Spreadsheet Competence

A strong knowledge of Excel spreadsheets is also needed to save time calculating formulas, staking plans, net winnings, effects of betting exchange commissions (i.e. their slice of your winnings), and also to record your results for full control and continued focus on how well the ‘business’ is performing.

How do you get rich with a business? You become rich by constantly monitoring and evaluating performance, fine-tuning trading areas that require improvement, and cutting away the loss-making areas. What is going right; what is going wrong? Without a spreadsheet or copious written records, you will have no idea and the question, “how do you get rich?” will have had no chance of a solution from the outset.

6. Enough Knowledge to Recognise a ‘Value’ Bet

Absolute knowledge of what a ‘value’ bet is and how to calculate value bets using statistics is paramount in order to add the ‘edge’ that you will need in order to compete with the bookmakers on level ground. It is a myth that people ever become rich gambling on gut-feeling alone. The Soccerwidow course teaching you about statistics and value bets is a good starting point.

7. Staking Plans

These are an essential element of any successful betting strategy. Without a staking plan, your betting will be directionless, unreliable, and unrewarding. The staking plan will also help minimise losses and keep your betting bank trading for as long as possible (with a stop-loss mechanism in place), seeing out the losing streaks you will undoubtedly have to endure.

Equally important is the ratchet mechanism, to increase staking levels when you have achieved desired betting bank targets. Ratcheting stakes down again (i.e. stop-loss) is required if the bank drops back to previous target levels.

Ratcheting your stakes in this way will ensure you achieve the most reward for your money when things are going well, but retain full control when you hit troughs of losses. “How do you get rich” will be a roller-coaster ride, full of highs and lows.

Image: Pikoso.kz (Shutterstock)

3. Start-up Capital and Money Management

Like a business, money is needed to bankroll the venture and we suggest a starting betting bank of no less than 1,000 currency units if you are serious. You will need to open accounts with at least one of the major betting exchanges, Betfair or Betdaq, in order to place ‘lay’ bets, and perhaps up to 20 bookmakers (or more) to achieve the best possible price when placing ‘back’ bets.

You can easily convert many bookmaker bonuses (free bets) into cash without risk using matched betting techniques to boost the size of your war chest, and this is where we would recommend you begin.

Ultimately, a wide range of bookmaker accounts is also needed to dilute and spread your success. You will need to consciously minimise the risks of account closure for being too successful with some bookmakers. Perhaps withdraw winnings via matched betting into your betting exchange account rather than withdrawing directly from the bookmakers.

8. Be Disciplined, Unemotional, and Patient

If you are gambling because you are desperate to earn money then you are doing it for the wrong reasons. You are already too emotionally attached to the task ahead.

If you enjoy the buzz and have decided to adopt a business-like approach to securing a regular income then you have a chance of succeeding.

Start by stop asking “how do you get rich?”. There is an established theory that if you put 10,000 hours of time into a project and really apply yourself to it, then success will invariably follow.

Keep financial records, just in case the taxman needs answers as to how you became rich! (We are being serious here!).

10. Never Gamble Tired or Drunk and Never Chase Losses

A fool and his money are easily parted. Casinos ply customers with free alcohol because they know it is a surefire way of unhinging your discipline and sense of reality.

“Never gamble more than you can afford to lose” is a mantra you will see repeated many times over in this blog.

Image: Gualtiero Boffi (Shutterstock)

Bookmakers make money; sports analysts make a living from gambling by compiling odds for bookies; some of my own income derives from sports bettors using this website. Programmers earn a living from gambling by developing various betting applications. Manufacturers of gaming machines make money from people’s gambling habits.

I could certainly continue this list as the betting business is a big industry providing many, many people with jobs.

But this is probably not a satisfactory response for sports fans who bet themselves and pursue the dream of supplementing their income, or becoming rich from gambling one day.

However, for these hopeful punters, the answer is also clearly positive…

• Yes: it is possible to develop long-term profitable betting strategies.
• Yes: it is possible to find betting odds which hold value and provide a mathematical edge.

Nothing is Impossible!

The big question is whether you will manage to join the minority, the tiny crowd of betting enthusiasts who finally become successful.

Another question is whether you have the patience (and time) for acquiring the necessary knowledge to win more than you lose, because only knowledge is power; without knowledge there is no chance.

Reliance on luck is not a foundation for lasting success. With luck alone nobody can build a house – only a handful of lottery millionaires can claim the opposite.

Successful Sports Bettors – Examples

In September 2005, in “Expert Betting Advice” forum, a young woman named Maria Santonix started publishing horse racing lay bets. I followed her thread at the time, and I must say that it came across as very authentic. She published daily picks (except Saturdays) and in only 303 days, her initial bank of £3,000 increased to £100,603.78.

The thread has since been taken offline by the operators of the forum, but if you google “Maria Laying System” you will find a plethora of articles referring to her experiment. Naturally, doubt breeds skepticism and most of the responses are quite critical.

It is difficult to find really credible information about betting success on the Internet. In the majority of threads you will read statements such as “I know someone who knows someone who makes his living from betting”.

The only website I am currently aware of which has published quarterly betting results for several years is Alan Seymour’s Sports Arbitrage Review. Alan writes about his experiences as a professional arbitrage trader and has been arbing since 2002.

Famous Last Words

If you have anything substantial to contribute to this topic please leave your comment below. It will warm our hearts and be absolutely great!

As I continue to develop betting courses and tutorials, I would be very keen to learn which specific content you are interested in most.

I thank you in advance for you valuable contribution! Every thought helps to develop this website into a sparkling source of knowledge in the often far too confusing worldwide web.

If you survive the assault course of these 10 Commandments of Gambling then you may have a chance of being successful with your betting activities…

There are no more than ten “golden rules” for gambling success and it’s certainly worthwhile to follow them.

Image: Jiri Hera (Shutterstock)

Rule 1: Discipline

It doesn’t matter what type of gambling activity you get involved in be it Horse racing, Football, Poker, Roulette, etc., if you enter into gambling transactions without discipline then you are sure to reduce your chances of winning consistently.

If you have no discipline and no intention of inheriting any then make a vow to yourself never to gamble.

Rule 2: Never Chase Losses

If events are unfolding against you there is always a temptation to pour more money into the bet to try and force a profit. This tactic only increases the chances that you will lose more.

Likewise, adopting the strategy after a loss that you must recoup your losses by betting more on the next event is also a recipe for disaster.

Please seek professional help if you have this trait as it is an obvious symptom of ‘problem gambling’.

Rule 3: Staking Strategy

The one certain thing is that you will never win all of your transactions and some losses are inevitable. Managing your bankroll correctly means that these losing transactions get swallowed up in the big picture and are not noticed in the long run.

We advocate that no single transaction should eat more than 2.5% of your starting bankroll, or the maximum below this that you set yourself (depending on the probabilities to win). Failure to manage your bankroll correctly is symptomatic of greed.

Most gamblers have no structure to their betting activity and place bets without thought to how much they may lose or how much they are trying to win.

You need to act like a business and your goals need to be SMART = Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic and Time-based. Your staking strategy then needs to be structured to achieve these goals without variation.

Rule 4: Coping with Winning Days & Losing Days

How you cope psychologically with losses plays a huge part in how successful you will be at gambling. Of course, no-one likes to lose but you have to learn to walk away at the point you set yourself, whether you are losing or winning. Not every session will be a winning one and it is important to have the ability to deal with this before you gamble.

Rule 5: Specialising

All successful businesses specialise and gambling should be no exception. By specialising you will understand better and research more ably your particular chosen field. Fewer, more focused wagers based on sound statistics and research is a much better way of investing hard earned money than employing a scatter-gun approach. Look closely at your betting patterns and see which area is ripe for specialisation.

Definitions of Gambling, Betting

In short, gambling is wagering on slots, table games and card games. These are available in brick-and-mortar casinos and online. Gambling includes poker games.

Image: Hannamariah (Shutterstock)

Betting is placing money on the outcome of events based on odds given by bookmakers. Horse racing, sports games, political events, TV shows, etc., are examples of bet types offered by bookmakers. Horse racing and soccer are traditionally their highest turnover sports.

However, gambling and betting definitions are much more complicated than the simple definition would suggest. According to the Ludwig von Mises Institute in Austria, a bet is “the desire to risk money against another person on the result of an event about the outcome of which we know only so much as can be known.

Thus, people can bet on a wide diversification of events from a general election to a tennis match. Or people might bet on who has the correct answer to a question.

Gambling is the desire to risk money against another person or company on the result of an event that we do not know anything more than is known. Thus, people gamble on services. Many times, gambling and betting are combined. For example, in horse racing, the owner is knowledgeable about the horse and the industry, so he can gamble, but the owner also has to make a bet based on the odds given by bookmakers”, the institute said.

Also, the culture surrounding gambling and betting is expanding and getting more intertwined as more is available online. Soccer betting is popular in Europe and is growing in popularity in the United States. “It works like any other sports gambling options”, said SportsGambling.com.

Historical Context

“Gambling has a long history in the world because outcomes are uncertain”, said Differencebetween.com. “Mankind is interested in knowing the future outcomes whether they are about events in one’s life or games. They put a value on something in the hope of getting more.”

Today, people gamble by betting on sports, playing casino games, betting on horses or visiting an online casino site, such as Harrahscasino.com, ClubWorldCasinos.com and slotter.com.

Historically, gambling is a generic word to describe placing wagers on particular outcomes or events, whilst betting is used to refer to an agreement between two people on whether a prediction will come true.

Governments have tried to regulate gambling to reduce the number of people who are adversely affected by gambling. Today, governments continue to regulate gambling and betting, Differencebetween.com reported.

Lines Blurring With Online Games

As more regions and states allow online gambling to take place legally, the lines between the definitions are fusing together. When people visit gambling sites, they deposit a certain amount into a pot. They can either play slots or table games. In some cases, online gambling sites allow the central pot of money to be used to place bets on sports events. Slot machine games online are programmed to look like real games.

For example, Harrahscasino offers customers the chance to play Euro Reels, an online slot game modeled after betting on real soccer games.

According to the site, the game features nine play lines. Three or more scatter icons activate free spins, and scatters can appear anywhere on the game. Customers can win free spins, obtain wild cards that substitute for any symbol and bonus rounds. Players compete against goalkeepers during the bonus Cash Cup with a chance to win the Euro Cash Cup by winning five goals in a row. Every ball kicked into the net is a winner.

Gambling, Betting in Business

Regardless of what term is used, gambling is big business. For example, it represents 1 percent of the gross domestic product of the United States or $14.5 trillion. Economists expect the casino industry to continue growing and supporting the economy. These figures come from betting on sporting events and gambling in casinos or online.

Economists have also compared gambling and betting to investing in the stock market. Investing and gambling both involve risk and choices, reported Investopedia.com. Placing bets is making a choice also. Gamblers and investors have to consider how much to risk on the possible outcome whether it’s a table game or the stock market. Gamblers weigh how much capital is in play or how much money to call a bet versus how much is in the pot. Investors do a similar calculation when determining how possible earning potential of a stock or fund.

Before even thinking about turning a profit, running a website can be like operating a circus full of tamed but unpredictable animals that need to be nurtured, fed, trained and controlled. All the acts are out front but an awful amount of background work goes on behind the scenes to encourage an audience to watch the show, and there are only so many hours in a day.

Collage of Shutterstock images; Foreground (left): Scott Maxwell / LuMaxArt,
Foreground (middle): Ihnatovich Maryia, Foreground (right): Mathieu Viennet, Background: Fer Gregory

Eggs in one basket

For one principal and two or three paid employees the income base of any website is difficult to grow beyond a certain point and if there are only very few income streams, then an internet business (like any other) is very sensitive to negative changes in any of these.

Wizard of Odds reached this threshold in August 2014 prompting the donations plea article, “Brother, can you spare a dime”, and Michael openly admitted six-weeks later that it was the gradual demise of just one sponsorship deal which diminished the group’s profitability to a critical point.

Michael has therefore had no option but to compromise his position to some degree and the deal with Latest Casino Bonuses (LCB) not only saves his group of websites, but also gives him financial security after working 17 years on the project.

The Price is Right?

Obtaining third party finance for additional employees or support would only have added to the stress of having to grow the business again from a declining position just to afford the loan repayments, hence the decision not to gamble but to sell outright.

And if you are talking about gambling with the future of your business then you wouldn’t want any man other than an expert in odds and strategy making the play.

The deal was done quickly and it was the right thing to do – indeed, it was the only prudent thing to do from a business perspective.

People question whether $2.35 Mio is a fair price, but with Michael presumably retaining some sort of profit share as the company moves forward, plus being salaried as an expert for doing what he enjoys, he will be smiling as his websites were definitely backed into a corner.

Why did LCB buy?

This is an easy one to answer as Wizard of Odds is an authority site and arguably you won’t find a better one dedicated to the subject of casino games, odds and strategies.

It has been around for over a decade and is an established brand.

The whole package is well-presented and loaded with free information, which attracts the visitors.

Cosmetically speaking, the Wizard of Odds site is excellent. We estimate that with an Alexa rank around 45,000 at the time of sale Wizard of Odds receives well over 1 Mio hits per month with a high proportion of repeat visitors.

If you were ever going to create the potential for a hugely popular site by offering free information to gain a substantial following and then monetizing it afterwards, then this is a prime example of a potentially lucrative cash cow, which just needed pointing in the direction of richer pastures.

By design or accident, Michael has created a hugely attractive company for a buyer, whether the combined monetary turnover of the sites was significant or not, and this is a lesson for website owners across the Net.

One can also assume that LCB will spend over and above the sale price adding more key personnel and programmers to drive the business forwards, and this will have been taken into account when agreeing upon the final purchase price.

The key to the deal was probably LCB persuading Michael to stay on board. Leaving him to concentrate on what he is good at and taking away all the other tasks involved in managing a website business can only mean the quality of the ‘Wizard’ sites will improve even further, and there is no doubt that Wizard of Odds is the jewel in the crown and holds great potential for LCB.

Whatever the final details of the arrangement are, we believe this is a win-win deal for both parties and will pay off in the short term.

What next for the Client Base?

There seems little need for the existing clientele to worry. The main man is now salaried and staying on and you can be sure that the cavalry will arrive soon in the form of helpers.

Of course, a sales and marketing expert is needed to monetize the site and create multiple revenue streams and this has been hinted at since the takeover in the form of more effective casino affiliate advertising.

All in all, users of the Wizard sites should be excited about what lays ahead.

When a top quality group of sites adds another superlative site to its portfolio you can rest assured that the outcome of the deal will provide the end-user with a better experience.

This sale should also inspire and give encouragement to SME website owners everywhere as it identifies a quality benchmark to aim at.

Since the growth of online poker caused the average IQ of poker players to increase dramatically it has become even more important to understand the numbers behind the game.

Indeed, while it was once possible for players to make money with a touch of experience and a stoic demeanour, it’s now the statistically minded that rake in vast sums of money at the table.

So, does this mean you need to be like John Nash (the famous math professor portrayed by Russell Crowe in A Beautiful Mind) to make money? Fortunately, the answer is “no” because online tools such as the CardsChat poker odds calculator are on hand to unravel the poker’s numerical matrix.

Why Do You Need to Use a Poker Odds Calculator?

Although it can be an advantage to know how to perform complex equations without the aid of a calculator, it’s certainly not a necessity at the poker table.

In fact, given the time you have to make decisions at the felt it’s virtually impossible to accurately work out the exact odds in each scenario. Thankfully, however, the ability to use calculators and other poker tools can help you build up a general appreciation of the numbers involved in various situations.

In the same way you have a kinaesthetic awareness of where your limbs are without having to look at them, using a poker odds calculator often enough allows you to know the right move without having to look at the numbers.

Breaking Down the Numbers

With that said let’s break down the basics of the CardsChat calculator and then put it to use in a selection of scenarios.

The main purpose of the calculator is to work out how often a particular hand will win, tie or lose against another, and with this particular piece of software you can compare up to six hands at once.

Once you’ve set the number of hands you want to assess (you must choose at least two) you need to highlight the empty boxes and choose the two cards that will make up each hand.

After setting each player’s hand you can hit the “calculate odds” button and the software will tell you how the hands stack-up against each other pre-flop.

Example 1: Big Slick

Looking at the scenario in the image below you’ll see that when comparing Ad Kd against Jd 9c the former will be a 65.73% favorite if all the money went in before the flop, and the five community cards were laid out.

Beyond the ability to analyze pre-flop situations you can also assess the winning/losing ratios of hands on the flop and turn. The reason this is useful is because the majority of Hold’em hands don’t start and end before the flop.

Thus, it’s important to understand how the changing dynamics of the board affect will alter the win/ lose percentages.