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True Odds & Value Detector: International Club Competitions (with no head-to-head history)

This spreadsheet contains the calculations for international club tournaments between teams with no head-to-head history, applicable for competitions such as the UEFA Champions League, Europa League, or even the South American Copa Libertadores. International...
3D: figurine of warrior (robot) that cleans, disassembles and assembles his weapons / 3D-Bild: Krieger (Roboter), welcher seine Waffen reinigt, zerlegt und montiert

Review and Tips: MarketFeeder Pro – Betfair Bot

MarketFeeder is one of many ‘bots’ available to purchase and, out of the many I have used, it is my personal favourite since it can be tailored to one’s exact needs and every imaginable strategy can be performed automatically....
Octopus Fortune Teller with Crystal Ball / Octopus Wahrsager mit Kristallkugel

German Scientists Simulate Euro 2012

Something Fishy in Germany Again! If the prognosis of scientists from the International School of Management (ISM) in Frankfurt and the German Sport University Cologne is to be believed, then Euro 2012 will be nothing more than a re-run of the...
Gentleman sits cross legged in a chair with eyes closed and palms raised in a summoning pose / Mann sitzt im Schneidersitz auf einem Stuhl mit geschlossenen Augen in einer Beschwörungsstellung

The Challenge of Predicting Individual Events

Why is it so awfully difficult to predict single events accurately, when the synergy of multiple events aggregated together seems far easier to guess? Many people are able to predict how things will develop in their personal lives over a period...
Wizard with glowing magical orb / Zauberer mit glühender magischer Kugel

Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 207 Bets, 07/12/2011 – 31/05/2012

The end of the month has arrived again and after 17 match analyses and 48 more value bet recommendations, it is time for our summary. May was the first month we published our value bet articles and predictions in both Betfair’s German...
Teacher standing near blackboard in classroom / Lehrerin in der Nähe der Tafel im Klassenzimmer

Understand Odds: Cup Finals and International Tournaments, played at neutral venues

Both sides of the coin… The ‘true’, ‘fair’ or ‘zero’ odds are all synonyms for those odds which exactly reflect the statistical expectation of an event. For example, the ‘true’ odds for the...
Goal full of soccer balls / Tor voller Fußbälle

Goal Distribution Comparison – EPL, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie

Judging purely from statistics, watching French league games must be rather boring as there are never many goals. Image: koya979 (Shutterstock) The Dutch, on the other hand, tend to have at least five goals in nearly 10% of their matches. From...
Stock market concept - globe with charts in background / Börse Konzept - Globus mit Diagrammen im Hintergrund

Is Football Betting Safer than Stock Market Trading? A Few Thoughts…

In the German language version of my article, “An observation about stock trading and football betting” a comment was recently received from a keen observer (translated as follows): “Companies can go bust. Then the entire share...
Golden piggy bank standing out from the others / Goldenes Sparschwein zwischen vielen anderen

Sharp Betting: Sports Betting as a Permanent Source of Income

Fortune Favours the Educated: There are only three guaranteed ways of making regular, long-term profits from betting: Arbitrage Trading (Both requiring large numbers of transactions for a steady drip-feed) ‘Sharp’ or ‘Value’...
Wizard with glowing magical orb / Zauberer mit glühender magischer Kugel

Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 56 Bets, from 07/12/2011 to 29/02/2012

It is tricky to prove mathematically that betting success is not connected with luck because ‘luck’ is impossible to quantify or express in a formulaic manner. However, it is possible to show empirically that betting selections chosen entirely...