Search for statistical match analysis

Why do bookmakers ban their customers, close accounts or limit stakes?

Recently we received an email from a distressed reader who after a very short time scale (just 2 months!) employing a strategy based on our Home-Draw-Away article, found that without warning several bookmakers (e.g. Boylesport, Stan James,...
Computer mouse attached to football bearing 1X2 symbols / Computemaus befestigt an einem Fußball mit 1X2 Symbolen

1X2 Betting System – Staking the Underdog

Every year we publish HDAFU simulation tables (Home, Draw, Away, Favourites, Underdogs), which model profit & losses for five seasons in each featured league for developing profitable betting systems. Today’s article discusses the...
Lay the Draw - 5 seasons - fixed stake

Bet and Win – Avoid Placing Bets at the Start of Season

If you are not operating a football betting portfolio which is primarily aimed at diversifying risk and balancing your cash resources between different leagues, matches, and outcomes, then it is strongly advisable to hold off from any betting...
Conceptual image of 1x2 football betting / Konzeptionelles Bild 1x2 Fußball-Wetten

1×2 Football Betting – How to Compile a Winning Portfolio

This article moves away from betting on individual teams, and pushes strategic thinking further up the knowledge ladder. The method described below explains how to use our HDA simulation tables for recognising profitable 1×2 betting strategies...

Football Betting Odds Calculation Course – How to Calculate Odds – Over / Under ‘X’ Goals

Please note that this is an archived post. Here, we describe the 1st edition of our Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Course. We decided not to remove this post from the site because of the many questions and answers in the comments section....
Percent cubes, 3D image / Prozent-Würfel, 3D-Bild

Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage: Explained

Introduction The terms probability, expectation, likelihood, chance and hit rate are all closely related, and express more or less the same thing. The difference is that before a game one talks about ‘chance’, ‘probability’,...
A pile of white dice / Haufen weißer Würfel

What is the Ideal Sample Size for Accurate Predictions?

A common problem faced by data analysts is to decide upon the required sample size. This can be estimated by using various calculations and distribution functions. However, even if a statistician is readily available, the answer is not necessarily...

1×2 Full-Time Table of Records – Value Bet Detector with H2H history

The 1×2 Full-Time table of records is a compilation of HDA data from 417 completed Value Bet Detector spreadsheets from 24 countries around the world. (League games with H2H history). Price: £12.50 (ex VAT; see below) 0% VAT to UK customers 0%...
Finger wagging at Chihuahua puppy for good behaviour / Erhobener Zeigefinger zeigt Welpen gutes Benehmen

Calculating Odds for League Newcomers is Unpredictable

We often receive queries asking how to calculate odds for league newcomers and why we don’t develop a Value Bet Calculator for league matches involving teams without head-to-head (H2H) history, or their respective last 25 matches being in...
A school of fish with 3 fish swimming against the stream / 3 Fische, die gegen den Strom anderer Fische schwimmen

Successful Football Betting Using a Portfolio Strategy

In principle, football results are randomly distributed but the outcomes of games can be predicted fairly accurately using statistical modelling. This is contrary to other forms of gambling loaded in favour of the house such as lottery and roulette,...