Football Betting Odds Calculation Course – How to Calculate Odds – Over / Under ‘X’ Goals

Please note that this is an archived post. Here, we describe the 1st edition of our Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Course. We decided not to remove this post from the site because of the many questions and answers in the comments section. For those of you with curious minds it may also be quite interesting to see how this product has developed over the years.

Here’s the link to the product specifics of the 2nd edition: Fundamentals of Sports Betting

Soccerwidow’s Over Under Betting Course takes the bettor through probabilities, odds, value, profit and loss calculation, and explains these technical terms in easy language.

There are plenty of exercises to help hone your skills, and you will also learn to download historical data and analyse it using calculation software such as Excel.

The course explains in detail how to evaluate teams and compile your own ‘true’ odds for the Over Under betting market which can then be compared to the market prices.

You will be taught the process of calculating value, clustering data, understanding probabilities, and computing potential profit and loss from anticipated bets.

This book is essential reading for anyone looking to understand odds calculation and take their betting to another level.

Over Under Football Betting Course – How to Calculate Odds, Identify Value Bets and Develop a Successful Betting Strategy

Why do I need to know how to calculate odds?

Enthusiasm for sports betting is good and fine, but there is much more needed to actually become a winner.

The majority of bettors use their hearts, gut feelings, and hunches to place their bets. They then perhaps do a little research and despite getting the best odds available in the markets, and using various bookmaker accounts, they wonder why they lose more than they win in the long run.

The answer is simple; to make a regular profit and keep on winning not only requires a disciplined approach but also a thorough understanding of odds calculation.

Further reading:
Psychology of Gambling and the Importance of a Staking Plan
Value Betting versus Gut Feeling

What knowledge is required to understand this course?

This is a beginner’s course, and aiming at people with little odds calculation knowledge and basic Excel skills.

The course is written on a level which does not require higher maths than O-levels. Still, the course may be quite difficult for those who have always found maths a challenge. Just take your time, read each chapter several times, solve all the exercises before moving on to the next section, and try to understand everything. Ultimately, you will be rewarded with knowledge.

To ensure proper understanding, the course contains no shortcuts. All calculations need to be done manually. There are plenty of exercises to guide the learning process and the aim is that once you master the course, you should be able to develop your own betting system which should hopefully turn you into a winner.

All formulas are given and explained either in the chapter of each exercise, or at the end which contains the solutions to all of the exercises.

You are welcome to ask specific questions via the comment functions in any article on the Soccerwidow website; we usually reply within a few hours and are more than happy to help.

Further reading:
Heart Beats Brain – Is Accurate Forecasting of Specific Results in Football Matches Possible?
Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage: Explained

Are the principles and analysis techniques in this course
transferrable to other football leagues?

Absolutely – although the course uses the German Bundesliga as its example to outline principles and techniques to analyse a league’s goal distribution, the methodology is equally applicable to any world football league and indeed, relevant to all other professional sports.

Furthermore, the Odds Calculation Course uses the Over Under Goals market as its theme and the approaches demonstrated are timeless, using fundamental statistical principles for practical football betting applications. They are also usable for odds calculation in other betting markets (e.g. both teams to score, clean sheets, etc.).

Anything with historical data available and which is countable can be statistically analysed. Once the distributions are known, forecasts and projections for the future are possible.

Further reading:
Goal Distribution Comparison – EPL, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie
How Bookmakers’ Odds Match Public Opinion

Contents of the Odds Calculation Course:

Section A: Basic Knowledge

Probabilities, Odds, Value, Profit and Loss Calculation:

1. Calculation of Expected Market Prices

  • Goals in the German Bundesliga
  • Exercises in calculating percentages
  • Expected odds for the Bundesliga
  • Exercises in calculating probability and odds

2. Evaluation of Individual Teams

  • Exercises in interpreting graphs
  • Computing the ‘zero’ (fair/ true) odds
  • How is ‘value’ calculated?
  • Exercises in calculating probabilities, odds, value, profit and loss

Section B: Cluster Groups and Betting Tables

Developing a Betting Strategy:

3. Building Cluster Groups

  • What are cluster groups?
  • Cluster grouping according to the relative strength of opposing teams
  • Exercises in cluster group building

4. Betting Tables: Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Market

  • How to read and understand the betting tables
  • Exercises in calculating and forecasting market odds
  • Finding potential value bets in the betting tables
  • Exercises with cluster groups and identifying bets

Football Betting Odds Calculation Course
How to Calculate Odds – Over / Under ‘X’ Goals

E-book - The Soccerwidow Odds Calculation Course
  • Format: PDF
  • Download Size: 1.29 MB
  • Publisher: Hertis Services Ltd; 1st edition (February 2012)
  • Pages: 69
  • Example Tables: 44
  • Practise Exercises and Questions: Over 40 (Answers provided)
  • Language: ENGLISH

Sorry, but the first edition is not offered for sale anymore. It helped many, many people see gambling in a different light. It was praised as presenting facts in an unemotional manner, stripping away the myths and false beliefs hampering the majority of punters.

But there is a new, revised version of the course packing an extra 100 pages of invaluable information: Fundamentals of Sports Betting

The book has undergone a transformation to become a complete guide to betting for long-term profit, including everything customers of the first edition asked, either by commenting here on this page (see below), or by contacting us directly by email.

Customer Comment
My advice would be to purchase Soccerwidow’s ‘How to calculate Odds’ workbook.
It’s extremely comprehensive and anything I didn’t understand I googled, and googled again,
and still google. It will probably be a few months before I understand it fully
but as I bet on both soccer & Australian Rules Football I found it invaluable.
I can’t wait for your next article.

Customers Who Bought This Item Also Bought:

Last Update: 21 November 2014

84 Responses to “Football Betting Odds Calculation Course – How to Calculate Odds – Over / Under ‘X’ Goals”

  1. 7 July 2016 at 7:56 am #

    Hi there I have just purchased Over under odds calculation PDF.
    I need help. Ive read a lot of your writing, and practicing over 100 bets with value 1 & value 2 in mind.

    However I still cannot make profits. My losses are way too difficult to cover back with my winnings because most of the time the odds I’m betting are low. Winnings are still too little to cover the losses of full amount. Im still wondering how to cover back the losses.

    The data I’m using is from soccerway. Home and away 25 matches, and H2H 6 to 25 matches.

    My staking plan is fixed risk fixed win at 28 units.

    I have lost quite a big number of bets from 1×2 market and Total goal market.

    Have I missed something important in my odds calculation?

    • 7 July 2016 at 8:35 am #

      Hi Teck Chuan,

      There is a completely upgraded version of the course just in the process of being published.

      The questions you are asking are all addressed in the new version. Please be patient for a few more days, when the new course will be available to the public.

    • 7 July 2016 at 8:43 am #

      The 1×2 market is far trickier than the goal market.

      If you are new to betting, we strongly recommend to specialise on the goal market before moving on to more complex markets. Also concentrate your efforts on one league only first (ideally a league you’re not supporting to remove any bias you may have), and then later extend to more leagues. Paper exercise for a time before committing any money.

      Successful betting takes a very long time. You need to understand everything first before you actually have a chance to succeed. It’s like in any other serious business. One cannot just go ahead and set up a business and then expect the business to return money immediately. With setting up a business, the advantage is that you’re at least not losing all your investments if you have reasoning errors. With betting, your stakes are gone faster than is comfortable. Therefore… Paper exercise! As long as it takes.

      • 7 July 2016 at 9:10 am #

        Thank you. Do I have to buy the upgraded version? I have just bought this Over Under PDF

        • 8 July 2016 at 1:09 pm #

          Hi Teck Chuan,

          The upgraded version is going to be more expensive than the one you just bought, but as soon as we publish the second edition we will send out an email to all buyers of the first edition. They will receive a discount for the upgraded edition which will not only reimburse you the £49 you paid for the current course but even discount a little bit more from the new price. Nothing to worry there.

          Best wishes,

  2. 7 July 2016 at 7:48 am #

    Hello there.

    If Im understanding correctly here, there are 4 ways to get Total Goal True odds and value

    1. Home and Away 25 matches average + H2H matches average

    2. 5 seasons of league total goal general stats, true odds.

    3. According to your pdf total goal over/under, 5 seasons of league match history, averaging home team and away team, no H2H data included. Minimum of 85 matches Home Away

    4. Clustering with of 1×2 odds groups.

    Please advice. What kind of odds is suitable for different kind of situations. With your experience? Which of these yield better?

  3. 30 April 2016 at 2:06 pm #

    Hello SoccerWidow,

    Are the principles learned inside this book also applyable to horse race?


    • 2 May 2016 at 10:01 am #

      Hi Flavien,

      Statistics are statistics, they are applicable to everything that can be counted. Question is: Do you have enough data which can be analysed for horse racing?

      The course will teach you how to analyse data. Which data you then analyse and apply your knowledge to, is up to you. So, in principle, yes.

      • 3 May 2016 at 9:30 am #

        Thanks a lot, I just purchased your E-book today, and I’m enjoying it so much.

        You’re so great!!!

  4. 21 March 2016 at 9:32 pm #

    Hello Nicholas,

    I think the best thing to do is buy the course – it’s all explained in detail!

  5. 21 March 2016 at 9:19 pm #

    Can u please help with question 4.1 how to read and understand betting tables

  6. 12 February 2016 at 10:45 pm #


    I’m trying to understand the calculations of Excercise 1.2 E, but I’m stuck.

    Could you send me the underlying spreadsheet?

  7. 6 January 2016 at 4:45 pm #

    Hi Panagiotis,

    No, nothing wrong with the strategy but four bets is too small to make any assumptions about the validity of your approach.

    Firstly, we always use the last five complete seasons’ data for any analysis. This may or may not make a significant impact on your selection criteria.

    Secondly, winning and losing bets do not always line up in a uniform manner. Our recent article about winning and losing streaks may help you understand better.

    Thanks for your contribution.

  8. 4 January 2016 at 9:31 pm #

    I have created an excel sheet in which i have the percentage of every team of over/under for the last 4 seasons (home-away-overall) to premier league. Also i have and the mean goals per match(home-away-overall) for every team. From this sheet i have calculated the trendline for under2,5 goals and the trendline for over2,5 goals. As input to trendline i put the home average goals per match for home and away average goals for away team dividing by 2 in order to have the average goal per match for this match. So i calculate the under 2,5 from the under 2,5 trendline which i have in the excel sheet. The results i have until now are disapointing, 4/4 lost bets. i bet only value odds. Do you find my strategy wrong? What can i do to improve my strategy. Sorry for my english.
    Sincerely, Panagiotis

  9. 28 December 2015 at 12:34 pm #

    Hi Soccerwidow,

    Thanks for the great guide, I’m learning a lot 🙂

    Like Marc above I’m having trouble with Exercise 1.2, Part E. Specifically the part where you have to calculate the average of the percentages for over/under x goals.
    I would greatly appreciate it if you could show me how to calculate the average of percentages.

    Many thanks.

    • 6 January 2016 at 4:50 pm #

      Hello Conor,

      Thanks for your input. Before we send you a little something to help you out, try first on your own. If you already know the percentages then it really is a question of adding them all together and then dividing by the total number of figures. If I have misunderstood your question, then by all means come back to me.

      All the best.

  10. 15 February 2015 at 10:00 pm #

    Hi Soccerwidow,
    As a couple of your previous posts I too am having some difficulty with exercise 1.2 part E could you please advise on how to work this out.
    Thanks in advance

    • 16 February 2015 at 1:44 pm #

      Hi Marc, I just emailed to you a spreadsheet which contains all calculations to come up with the charts used in the course. Hopefully, this will help you to get to the correct answer in 1.2.(E). Don’t worry, you are not the first to get a headache with the formulas for relative and absolute deviation, and certainly not the last. However, I am sure that you will master it! 🙂

  11. 31 August 2014 at 11:47 am #

    Hello SoccerWidow, do you have any source where I can find odds for over/under x goals for the bundesliga 1 2013/2014. I am working on an essay and I need these odds in order to apply my betting strategy and see if it works.
    Thanks in advance

    • 2 September 2014 at 2:46 pm #

      Hi Giovanni, check out the Link Directory. We list there all reliable Internet sources known to us.

      Unfortunately, you will only find odds for OU 2.5 goals for download from various sources. If you need to get other OU odds then it will be manual work to fetch them from the archives from odds comparison sites.

  12. 22 August 2014 at 10:46 am #

    Hi !
    I have purchased your Over /Under course and HDA table, both are great products and offer great insight. However, I have some questions I would like to ask:
    1. When calculating odds for Over/Under, in your opinion is the average stats of the teams’ last 5 years’ performance better, or using the teams’ last 25 games better as a predictor of Over/Unders?
    2. In the latter part of your over/under course, you mention that using BH/BA clusters as a method of predicting O/U results. Is there anywhere I can obtain these cluster tables of different leagues, or would I have to make them myself?
    3. Lastly, should streaks be considered into part of the equation? For example , if team A has been going Over 2.5 for 9/10 last games, should this be included? Or should we just look at the whole picture, i.e. last 5 years’ performance?

    Thank you so much for your help , I really appreciate it!

    • 23 August 2014 at 10:06 am #

      Hi Roger,

      (1) In the OU course I explain odds calculation in general and also introduce the concept of clustering. For building groups a good amount of data is necessary, and therefore I use 5-seasons of data. Otherwise distributions are harder to recognise.

      The Value Bet Detector is a tool for calculating the probabilities for a single match. In it I use only the last 25 games, but the H2H of the last 10-years as a correction factor. The calculator is only applicable for a subset of matches (with at least six H2H meetings at the same ground in the last 10 calendar years) whilst the course addresses a much larger data set and much larger group of potential matches for analysis.

      (2) Regarding cluster tables, the course teaches how to do them yourself without relying on us to publish more tables. However, as you are not the first, and we have been asked many times if we can provide tables for different leagues, the good new is that I have finally addressed this issue and just few days ago finished a template. Within the next week cluster tables for major leagues will be put up for sale.

      (3) Streaks happen… for example, the average height of the German male population is 178 cm. However, there is a good chance that you may see 10 men in the street, one after the other, who are all less than the average height. In other words, streaks have no relevance on the real distribution.

      Hope this helps and thanks for your question.

  13. 18 June 2014 at 12:35 pm #

    Hello Soccerwidow,

    I’ve just purchased your Over/Under course and your Value Bet detector. They are both excellent products and they bring together all the knowledge that I have accumulated over a few decades.

    Unfortunately, it has taken me this long to figure out the simple fact that value bets + staking plan = steady profits 😉

  14. 6 June 2014 at 8:14 am #

    Hi in exercises 1.2 part E. Your calculation of absolute deviation for under 0.5 goals equal to 24% I can’t understand how you calculate it. I have result 26.13% for this

    • 6 June 2014 at 4:31 pm #

      Hi menime,

      I just emailed to you the underlying spreadsheet for the course which contains the graph you are referring to. There you’ll find the calculation for under 0.5 goals.

      Hope this helps.

      Kind regards,

  15. 31 May 2014 at 11:04 am #

    Hi !

    Purchased both over/under course and league with head to head history about a year ago. Made my own tables with the over under course, getting quartileodds for example matchodds, halftime odds and so on. Now to my question, wich one of them makes the best result according to you over/under or league with head to head history ?

    • 1 June 2014 at 3:55 pm #

      For value betting, statistical outliers are often the most interesting candidates. Patterns are also easier to spot, for example the Over 1.5 Goals market.

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