Football Betting Odds Calculation Course – How to Calculate Odds – Over / Under ‘X’ Goals


Please note that this is an archived post. Here, we describe the 1st edition of our Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Course. We decided not to remove this post from the site because of the many questions and answers in the comments section. For those of you with curious minds it may also be quite interesting to see how this product has developed over the years.

Here’s the link to the product specifics of the 2nd edition: Fundamentals of Sports Betting



Soccerwidow’s Over Under Betting Course takes the bettor through probabilities, odds, value, profit and loss calculation, and explains these technical terms in easy language.

There are plenty of exercises to help hone your skills, and you will also learn to download historical data and analyse it using calculation software such as Excel.

The course explains in detail how to evaluate teams and compile your own ‘true’ odds for the Over Under betting market which can then be compared to the market prices.

You will be taught the process of calculating value, clustering data, understanding probabilities, and computing potential profit and loss from anticipated bets.

This book is essential reading for anyone looking to understand odds calculation and take their betting to another level.

Over Under Football Betting Course – How to Calculate Odds, Identify Value Bets and Develop a Successful Betting Strategy


Why do I need to know how to calculate odds?

Enthusiasm for sports betting is good and fine, but there is much more needed to actually become a winner.

The majority of bettors use their hearts, gut feelings, and hunches to place their bets. They then perhaps do a little research and despite getting the best odds available in the markets, and using various bookmaker accounts, they wonder why they lose more than they win in the long run.

The answer is simple; to make a regular profit and keep on winning not only requires a disciplined approach but also a thorough understanding of odds calculation.

Further reading:
Psychology of Gambling and the Importance of a Staking Plan
Value Betting versus Gut Feeling


What knowledge is required to understand this course?

This is a beginner’s course, and aiming at people with little odds calculation knowledge and basic Excel skills.

The course is written on a level which does not require higher maths than O-levels. Still, the course may be quite difficult for those who have always found maths a challenge. Just take your time, read each chapter several times, solve all the exercises before moving on to the next section, and try to understand everything. Ultimately, you will be rewarded with knowledge.

To ensure proper understanding, the course contains no shortcuts. All calculations need to be done manually. There are plenty of exercises to guide the learning process and the aim is that once you master the course, you should be able to develop your own betting system which should hopefully turn you into a winner.

All formulas are given and explained either in the chapter of each exercise, or at the end which contains the solutions to all of the exercises.

You are welcome to ask specific questions via the comment functions in any article on the Soccerwidow website; we usually reply within a few hours and are more than happy to help.

Further reading:
Heart Beats Brain – Is Accurate Forecasting of Specific Results in Football Matches Possible?
Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage: Explained


Are the principles and analysis techniques in this course
transferrable to other football leagues?

Absolutely – although the course uses the German Bundesliga as its example to outline principles and techniques to analyse a league’s goal distribution, the methodology is equally applicable to any world football league and indeed, relevant to all other professional sports.

Furthermore, the Odds Calculation Course uses the Over Under Goals market as its theme and the approaches demonstrated are timeless, using fundamental statistical principles for practical football betting applications. They are also usable for odds calculation in other betting markets (e.g. both teams to score, clean sheets, etc.).

Anything with historical data available and which is countable can be statistically analysed. Once the distributions are known, forecasts and projections for the future are possible.

Further reading:
Goal Distribution Comparison – EPL, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie
How Bookmakers’ Odds Match Public Opinion


Contents of the Odds Calculation Course:

Section A: Basic Knowledge

Probabilities, Odds, Value, Profit and Loss Calculation:

1. Calculation of Expected Market Prices

  • Goals in the German Bundesliga
  • Exercises in calculating percentages
  • Expected odds for the Bundesliga
  • Exercises in calculating probability and odds

2. Evaluation of Individual Teams

  • Exercises in interpreting graphs
  • Computing the ‘zero’ (fair/ true) odds
  • How is ‘value’ calculated?
  • Exercises in calculating probabilities, odds, value, profit and loss

Section B: Cluster Groups and Betting Tables

Developing a Betting Strategy:

3. Building Cluster Groups

  • What are cluster groups?
  • Cluster grouping according to the relative strength of opposing teams
  • Exercises in cluster group building

4. Betting Tables: Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Market

  • How to read and understand the betting tables
  • Exercises in calculating and forecasting market odds
  • Finding potential value bets in the betting tables
  • Exercises with cluster groups and identifying bets


Football Betting Odds Calculation Course
How to Calculate Odds – Over / Under ‘X’ Goals
PRODUCT SUMMARY (1st EDITION)

E-book - The Soccerwidow Odds Calculation Course
  • Format: PDF
  • Download Size: 1.29 MB
  • Publisher: Hertis Services Ltd; 1st edition (February 2012)
  • Pages: 69
  • Example Tables: 44
  • Practise Exercises and Questions: Over 40 (Answers provided)
  • Language: ENGLISH


Sorry, but the first edition is not offered for sale anymore. It helped many, many people see gambling in a different light. It was praised as presenting facts in an unemotional manner, stripping away the myths and false beliefs hampering the majority of punters.

But there is a new, revised version of the course packing an extra 100 pages of invaluable information: Fundamentals of Sports Betting

The book has undergone a transformation to become a complete guide to betting for long-term profit, including everything customers of the first edition asked, either by commenting here on this page (see below), or by contacting us directly by email.

Customer Comment
My advice would be to purchase Soccerwidow’s ‘How to calculate Odds’ workbook.
It’s extremely comprehensive and anything I didn’t understand I googled, and googled again,
and still google. It will probably be a few months before I understand it fully
but as I bet on both soccer & Australian Rules Football I found it invaluable.
I can’t wait for your next article.
Mark


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Last Update: 21 November 2014



84 Responses to “Football Betting Odds Calculation Course – How to Calculate Odds – Over / Under ‘X’ Goals”

  1. 31 May 2014 at 5:21 am #

    Hi! I want to buy your course but I have problem with paypal.. Can you send me information for paying via moneybrookers and price equivalence on usd?

    • 31 May 2014 at 5:34 am #

      Hi Menime, thank you for your interest in our course.

      Our payment options can be found here: Payment Options
      They include Skrill (Moneybookers), and the payment address is: admin[at]soccerwidow[dot]com (Please replace the [at] with @ & [dot] with . – we need to do this safety measure when publishing on the website, otherwise there are too many bots reading and then spamming our email address)

      Today’s exchange rate calculates US$82.14 equivalent to £49. However, should you (or other clients) purchase any other days, then please follow the link to Google, and it gives you the amount of the day.

      We look forward to your custom, and thanks again for your interest. 🙂

  2. 7 May 2014 at 1:04 pm #

    I lost the course and value detector sheets because my computer broke down and 1,5 years later, Soccerwidow still has data that I bought them so I sent her a mail and within 1 hour she already responded and sent me new spreadsheet and course.

    Thanks so much for this, Soccerwidow. It shows you truly care about your followers 🙂

  3. 13 October 2013 at 10:03 am #

    i am looking at hockey right now, and see that with 5 years data every team have played around 130-148 matches depending on leagues. And dividing them into quartiles it means that each quartile going to have 32-37 games. Should i make 5 quartiles to get even better result, with football each quartile have around18-23 matches and thats where its going to be if i divide hockey into 5 quartiles instead of 4 or is it good with more games.

    • 13 October 2013 at 1:04 pm #

      Hi Peter,

      you’ll need to see which cluster size will return the more accurate results.

  4. 4 October 2013 at 7:08 am #

    Hi Soccerwidow,

    Thanks for the reply, will look at Staking Plans, but must admit I have never heard of them.

  5. 2 October 2013 at 8:46 pm #

    Hi Soccerwidow,

    Many thanks for the reply. To be honest, I have to admit to arrogance with my earlier post, borne out of frustration , of course. I humbly apologise.

    I hold a philosophical view when it comes to making bets. The ‘ordinary’ better considers from a perspective of discernment. In other words, without recourse to mathematical computational skill, and using only historical result data, a better discerns the ‘form’ of one team against that of another, and draws a perspective of ‘likelihood’ of the result of the match he/she is going to place a bet on.

    Team form is everything. Regardless of the sport, knowing form is the most important element in betting. Now, historical data holds no influence or consequence to current form, it really doesn’t. The historical data of prior seasons cannot influence current season’s form factors…because the variables may have changed, and generally have.

    For instance, look at Man United’s (English Premier League) current form factor against last season. Using the team’s historical data from last season would have lost many bets, because doing so would have thrown up false positives. Man United’s dip in form is more than likely due to change of management and management skills…Moyes is no Ferguson. The variables for continuance of ‘good form’ have been disrupted.

    This coming Saturday’s game between Sunderland hosting Man United provides, according to my own data spreadsheet, Man United having a small edge of ‘away’ form factor (3) against Sunderland’s ‘home’ form factor of (0). I expect Man United to win as they have a ‘score probability’ of 23.9% against Sunderland’s -14%. Sunderland do not have a form factor or score probability to create a draw…they will lose against Man United.

    However, if Man United were away to Man City, I would expect City to win because their home form factor is (9), and their score probability is currently 50.8%, which means they should beat Everton this coming Saturday, because Everton’s ‘away form factor is only (5), and their score probability is only 4.7%. If all 4 teams play to form, these will be the results, but form is affected and influenced by many variables, even on the day, and even as the game is played, so a bet using form as a determinant is placed hoping that certain variables do not come into play to affect the expected outcome.

    Thanks for the links, will take a look.

    Best wishes

    • 3 October 2013 at 10:17 am #

      Hi Glenn,

      if you really are having an 80% hit rate then the only thing you need is the application of a rigid and strict staking plan. Here are two articles on this topic:

      Psychology of Gambling and the Importance of a Staking Plan
      Choosing the Right Staking Plan

      With a hit rate of 80% you certainly don’t need permutations or accumulators to generate a steady income. A fixed staking plan will do this job quite nicely and level out the risk of losing.

      Accumulators reduce your chances of making any profit as it only needs one bet to go wrong to lose the whole lot. Here is an article on combinatorics to help you calculate your chances of success with permutations:

      Combinatorics and Probability Theory in Football Betting

  6. 2 October 2013 at 1:35 pm #

    Hi Soccerwidow, I stumbled across your blog in August and I’ve been totally enthralled since. To assist Glen (above) my advice would be to purchase Soccerwidow;s “How to calculate Odds” workbook. It’s extremely comprehensive and anything I didn’t understand I googled, and googled again, and still google. It will probably be a few months before I understand it fully but as I bet on both soccer & Australian Rules Football I found it invaluable. I can’t wait for your next article.

    Thanks.

  7. 1 October 2013 at 11:26 pm #

    Accidentally stumbled upon this blog. Now, the problem I have with the blog is that it uses a language that offers nothing more than a chaotic kaleidoscope of meaningless colours. It’s pretty to look at, sounds incredibly intellectual, and to my mind, is about as ‘real’ to reality, as a mirage is to vision.

    Do any of you actually speak English, or do you reserve your conversation only for those whom understand the language?

    I don’t mean to be flippant or obnoxious, it’s just that I am pretty much frustrated by what you are saying. I’m a reasonably intelligent guy, but I am left wondering what the hell you have just said, and how it correlates to the ‘real’ world?

    For instance, I bet on football matches at the weekend, and I keep a spreadsheet. I play accumulator bets, and unsurprisingly I have never won any accumulator bet I have ever placed. However, I am constantly close to doing so. If I bet on 8 matches to be either, Home Win, Draw, or Away Win, I constantly get 5 or 6 correct.

    I don’t understand the different bets I can play, but I have just learned of ‘combination bets’, and believe that if I had bet that way, my 6 correct guesses would pay out each time. I am not a big gambler, I only bet a pound or two each week.

    The spreadsheet I keep allows me to use probability on a team’s form factor. If each team actually played to form, I believe I would be a very profitable better indeed…but they don’t play to form week in, week out, they are like volatile shares, going up and down daily.

    Form factors allows the better to spy for strong teams against weak teams, and thus to place bets on ‘win’ scenarios, which is what I do.

    I have read almost everything you have written in your articles, and I am just as blank now as I were when I started reading. My question is…how does all this apply in real world situations. As capable and professional as you are, you don’t seem able to simplify your concepts and articulate them in any true understandable means. What you write might as well be nuclear physics, and it is very frustrating, because I can intuit the importance of what you are writing about.

    Would it be possible for you to write an article on combination bets? What do 3 and 4 fold bets mean and how do they work?

    Your blog offers to aid betters to bet profitably. This it may do for the professional betters, but for the lay better, it seems out of reach of understanding.

    Peace.

  8. 16 June 2013 at 4:46 pm #

    Hi,
    I am trying to price “mythical matches” using both sets of match odds. Is there a formula?
    Thx

    • 17 June 2013 at 6:43 am #

      Hi Peter,

      sorry but we don’t do “mythical” or “fantasy” matches. Those are computer simulations and not real games. Of course, there must be some formulas, but we only look into real competitions with real teams and real people.

  9. 30 May 2013 at 2:45 pm #

    Just downloaded your guide, and learned a lot. Have a couple of questions, can i jump in to a league type the swedish one that already played about 10 games/rounds or must i wait until a league starts to have the stats on my side ? If i cant find a value bet before start but can get one for example 10- 15 minutes in the game and no goals has been scored, is that a value bet or is the stats only valid before kickoff. In your example you use 5 years to calculate, is that the least years you must have to find statistics that you can rely on ? Maybe this is beginners questions but i hope you can give an answer. Thanks for the guide, i can recommended it. Worth every penny !

  10. 8 April 2013 at 11:10 am #

    I’m not looking into the profits, rather how the betting is calculated. Will this book guarantee that i be able to calculate odds for any given match?

    • 8 April 2013 at 11:58 am #

      Yes, this course will teach you how to calculate over/under odds for any given match.

  11. 17 February 2013 at 12:23 am #

    Hi I bought the course for over/under but I’m stucked at Exercise 1.2 Part E where the answer says bets on under 0.5 goals have 3.5 times more risk than bets on under 1.5 and how did you calculate the result 24% and 6.78%.
    I’m sorry but my maths is not my strong point but I want to go through this course thoroughly.

    • 17 February 2013 at 6:32 am #

      Hi J Li, I emailed to you a spreadsheet containing all calculations to come up with the charts used in the course. Hopefully, this will help you to get to the correct answer in 1.2. (E).

  12. 8 February 2013 at 4:00 am #

    Hi,

    Can you pls explain the details for clustering?

    1st :
    Hoffenheim vs dortmund
    lbh 4.5
    lbd 3.75
    lba 1.72

    This overround is 2.616% or 2.616*100= 2616%?

    How do you categorize Row I , II , III, IV in yr excel? for different teams?

    • 8 February 2013 at 8:23 am #

      1. Calculation overround

      1/4.5+1/3.75+1/1.72 = 1.070284 –> Overround: 7.0284% (1.070284 minus 1)

      Please also see following article: How is Overround Calculated and what are the Benefits of Removing it from the Betting Odds?

      2. Clustering

      Clustering is grouping a set of data in such a way that data in the same group (called cluster) are more similar (in some sense or another) to each other than to those in other groups (clusters).

      More info: Cluster analysis (Wikipedia)

      There are different approaches (algorithms) to cluster data. In the course, we sort the data of each team in 4 similar large groups (clusters). However, what often causes confusion is that, because each team is of different strength, the clusters for each team are different. Hope this helps.

  13. 7 February 2013 at 6:55 pm #

    Hi,

    May know which page i can get more solid explanations about clustering?

  14. 3 January 2013 at 3:19 pm #

    Hi,

    Let me begin by expressing my great interest in your work. Keep it up!

    I am very interested in buying this product. However, there seems to be a problem with PayPal right now, and I am unable to pay using my credit card. Unfortunately, I need the book very quickly (in fact it is my intention to go through the complete course before the end of the weekend).

    Is it possible to make a fast payment without using PayPal so that I can get access to the material quickly – even if the problems with PayPal persist?

    • 3 January 2013 at 5:23 pm #

      Hi Carsten, we also accept payments via Moneybookers or Neteller. I emailed the details to you. Sorry for the problems you are experiencing.

  15. 3 December 2012 at 3:53 am #

    I have,um,disagreed with some of the things that have been written by soccer widow(and her man!) on this site so,to redress the balance,this seems to be a very worthwhile course which I may well have to purchase myself!!

    Funnily enough I have a friend who loves to bet on overs markets-not 2.5 goals,4.5 and,in the right circumstances,6.5 goals and he drives me NUTS by winning very high r.o.i.s doing such bets.

    What I don’t understand about his success is the fact that highly-respected Kevin Pullein as well as the author of a popular soccer betting book(i.e. someone else) say that since most people bet on overs what value there is in such markets will usually lie in the unders.

    To what extent would you say this is true?

    I must say,I don’t know anyone who bets unders!!!!

    • 3 December 2012 at 8:15 am #

      Hi Antonio,

      you can find value in all kind of markets, but the highest value is found with the outliers. These are in the over/under market the under 6.5 goal bets, and in some circumstances the over 1.5

      The course explains, why.

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