Football Betting Odds Calculation Course – How to Calculate Odds – Over / Under ‘X’ Goals

Please note that this is an archived post. Here, we describe the 1st edition of our Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Course. We decided not to remove this post from the site because of the many questions and answers in the comments section. For those of you with curious minds it may also be quite interesting to see how this product has developed over the years.

Here’s the link to the product specifics of the 2nd edition: Fundamentals of Sports Betting

Soccerwidow’s Over Under Betting Course takes the bettor through probabilities, odds, value, profit and loss calculation, and explains these technical terms in easy language.

There are plenty of exercises to help hone your skills, and you will also learn to download historical data and analyse it using calculation software such as Excel.

The course explains in detail how to evaluate teams and compile your own ‘true’ odds for the Over Under betting market which can then be compared to the market prices.

You will be taught the process of calculating value, clustering data, understanding probabilities, and computing potential profit and loss from anticipated bets.

This book is essential reading for anyone looking to understand odds calculation and take their betting to another level.

Over Under Football Betting Course – How to Calculate Odds, Identify Value Bets and Develop a Successful Betting Strategy

Why do I need to know how to calculate odds?

Enthusiasm for sports betting is good and fine, but there is much more needed to actually become a winner.

The majority of bettors use their hearts, gut feelings, and hunches to place their bets. They then perhaps do a little research and despite getting the best odds available in the markets, and using various bookmaker accounts, they wonder why they lose more than they win in the long run.

The answer is simple; to make a regular profit and keep on winning not only requires a disciplined approach but also a thorough understanding of odds calculation.

Further reading:
Psychology of Gambling and the Importance of a Staking Plan
Value Betting versus Gut Feeling

What knowledge is required to understand this course?

This is a beginner’s course, and aiming at people with little odds calculation knowledge and basic Excel skills.

The course is written on a level which does not require higher maths than O-levels. Still, the course may be quite difficult for those who have always found maths a challenge. Just take your time, read each chapter several times, solve all the exercises before moving on to the next section, and try to understand everything. Ultimately, you will be rewarded with knowledge.

To ensure proper understanding, the course contains no shortcuts. All calculations need to be done manually. There are plenty of exercises to guide the learning process and the aim is that once you master the course, you should be able to develop your own betting system which should hopefully turn you into a winner.

All formulas are given and explained either in the chapter of each exercise, or at the end which contains the solutions to all of the exercises.

You are welcome to ask specific questions via the comment functions in any article on the Soccerwidow website; we usually reply within a few hours and are more than happy to help.

Further reading:
Heart Beats Brain – Is Accurate Forecasting of Specific Results in Football Matches Possible?
Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage: Explained

Are the principles and analysis techniques in this course
transferrable to other football leagues?

Absolutely – although the course uses the German Bundesliga as its example to outline principles and techniques to analyse a league’s goal distribution, the methodology is equally applicable to any world football league and indeed, relevant to all other professional sports.

Furthermore, the Odds Calculation Course uses the Over Under Goals market as its theme and the approaches demonstrated are timeless, using fundamental statistical principles for practical football betting applications. They are also usable for odds calculation in other betting markets (e.g. both teams to score, clean sheets, etc.).

Anything with historical data available and which is countable can be statistically analysed. Once the distributions are known, forecasts and projections for the future are possible.

Further reading:
Goal Distribution Comparison – EPL, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie
How Bookmakers’ Odds Match Public Opinion

Contents of the Odds Calculation Course:

Section A: Basic Knowledge

Probabilities, Odds, Value, Profit and Loss Calculation:

1. Calculation of Expected Market Prices

  • Goals in the German Bundesliga
  • Exercises in calculating percentages
  • Expected odds for the Bundesliga
  • Exercises in calculating probability and odds

2. Evaluation of Individual Teams

  • Exercises in interpreting graphs
  • Computing the ‘zero’ (fair/ true) odds
  • How is ‘value’ calculated?
  • Exercises in calculating probabilities, odds, value, profit and loss

Section B: Cluster Groups and Betting Tables

Developing a Betting Strategy:

3. Building Cluster Groups

  • What are cluster groups?
  • Cluster grouping according to the relative strength of opposing teams
  • Exercises in cluster group building

4. Betting Tables: Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Market

  • How to read and understand the betting tables
  • Exercises in calculating and forecasting market odds
  • Finding potential value bets in the betting tables
  • Exercises with cluster groups and identifying bets

Football Betting Odds Calculation Course
How to Calculate Odds – Over / Under ‘X’ Goals

E-book - The Soccerwidow Odds Calculation Course
  • Format: PDF
  • Download Size: 1.29 MB
  • Publisher: Hertis Services Ltd; 1st edition (February 2012)
  • Pages: 69
  • Example Tables: 44
  • Practise Exercises and Questions: Over 40 (Answers provided)
  • Language: ENGLISH

Sorry, but the first edition is not offered for sale anymore. It helped many, many people see gambling in a different light. It was praised as presenting facts in an unemotional manner, stripping away the myths and false beliefs hampering the majority of punters.

But there is a new, revised version of the course packing an extra 100 pages of invaluable information: Fundamentals of Sports Betting

The book has undergone a transformation to become a complete guide to betting for long-term profit, including everything customers of the first edition asked, either by commenting here on this page (see below), or by contacting us directly by email.

Customer Comment
My advice would be to purchase Soccerwidow’s ‘How to calculate Odds’ workbook.
It’s extremely comprehensive and anything I didn’t understand I googled, and googled again,
and still google. It will probably be a few months before I understand it fully
but as I bet on both soccer & Australian Rules Football I found it invaluable.
I can’t wait for your next article.

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Last Update: 21 November 2014

84 Responses to “Football Betting Odds Calculation Course – How to Calculate Odds – Over / Under ‘X’ Goals”

  1. 30 November 2016 at 1:20 pm #

    Exercise 1.2 Part E is not clear at all how you arrive at your results and your answer to people asking for help is to spend another £40 to get an explanation. Well no thanks it should have been written properly in the first place.

    • 1 December 2016 at 9:24 am #

      No need to spend another £40 to get the explanation for exercise 1.2 (E) in the old course. Sorry for this challenge, you are not the first, but I am sure that you will master this exercise!

      I have addressed this question (and many more) in the updated version (2nd edition) of the course in great length. This new course is probably twice as long if not even longer, than the first edition.

      Anyway, should you decide that you don’t want to purchase the second edition, I have emailed to you the spreadsheet which contains all calculations to come up with the charts used in the course you purchased. Hopefully, this will help you to get to the correct answer in 1.2. (E).

      Best wishes,

  2. 16 July 2016 at 7:18 am #

    Hello Soccerwidow. Would like to purchase the 2nd edition. Please guide me how

    • 16 July 2016 at 7:37 am #

      Hi Teck Chuan,

      Thank you for your interest in the upgrade of the course.

      The email with the discount code for existing buyers has not yet gone out. The course has only been ready for publishing two days ago. Sorry! However, I’m going to email you the code so that you can use it straight away.

  3. 12 July 2016 at 10:40 pm #

    Hi, when is the new course going to be published?

    Also can the odds be calculated for over 1.5 and over 2.5 using this course. And will the course help in anyway taking value in play?

    Does the course provide access to data to calculate odds?

    • 15 July 2016 at 12:03 pm #

      Hi Lee, the completely revised edition of the course has finally been published: Fundamentals of Sports Betting
      To answer your question, yes the odds for over 1.5 and over 2.5 can be calculated using this course. In regards of taking value in play the course will also be helpful as you can apply the knowledge of calculating probabilities to both, half time and full time goal market. Then you can chose, for example, the matches with a high probability to score during the first half. These matches you can back, say O 2.5 goals before kick-off, and lay them as soon as the first goal has been scored. I’m going to address this in more detail in an article to follow.

  4. 10 July 2016 at 1:16 am #

    Questions regarding clustering.

    The odds you used to get Home/Away quotient is opening odds of bookmakers or the odds after adjusting to market buy and sell?

    I get different results of cluster selections most of the time, switching from opening odds to current odds.


    • 10 July 2016 at 8:02 am #

      The course uses data. The odds are taken on Friday evenings before the weekend games, and on Monday evenings for the week days. My approach is to have plenty of time to do all the calculations and make decisions, and totally remove the need to sit in front of the computer just before a game starts. There are families and lots of other nice things to do than to spend the time in front of a computer on a Saturday or Sunday.

      Anyway, if you wish to use opening odds then you would have to adjust the tables accordingly. However, even if the clusters move slightly, it shouldn’t be too much of a movement because odds don’t change so much that they effect the HO/AO quotient massively. To play it safe for moving odds you can always use 2 adjoining clusters when calculating odds.

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