# Frequently Asked Questions â€“ Over Under Cluster Tables

These FAQ’s refer to the: OVER/UNDER ~ HO/AO Cluster Tables.

Click on the arrows to reveal the answers.

## Popular Questions

Can I use the Cluster Tables for Trading?

Yes, you can! 🙂

For example, you can â€˜guesstimateâ€™ the direction of odds movements prior to kick-off.

Letâ€™s look at that a little bit closer with an example game, West Ham vs. Stoke on 16/4/2018. Here’s a screenshot calculating the â€˜Zeroâ€™ odds just by using the home & away statistics of the two teams but, at this stage, without using the HO/AO clusters:

As you can see, all of the odds moved in the expected direction.

However, please be aware that this doesnâ€™t happen every time. This match was an exceptional example with all prices (odds) moving in the â€˜rightâ€™ direction. Therefore, if you are going to develop a strategy trading on odds movements prior to kick-off youâ€™ll need to have a stop-loss mechanism in place should the odds move in the wrong direction.

Another trading scenario is to use the knowledge on how a match is expected to finish after 90 minutes to make an informed betting decision at half time. This time you have to use the calculations that take the HO/AO quotient into consideration:

You can see that the expected probability for this game (in 90 minutes) having over 0.5 goals was 93.7%. Even though it may challenge a few preconceived ideas about probabilities, you must understand that at half-time, when the score was 0-0, the probability for match ending with over 0.5 goals was still 93.7%!!

Even though the match had already reached half-time, the overriding probability for one goal hadnâ€™t changed. But, the odds for over 0.5 goals certainly had changed â€“ the price will have risen, not by a huge amount, but enough to turn the bet into a lucrative value bet.

AT kick-off the odds matched the zero odds expectations at 1.09 (first screenshot: without HO/AO clusters) and were just slightly above the expected range of ‘fair odds (second screenshot: taking the HO/HO clusters into consideration), but at half-time, they were around 1.20 and therefore contained very healthy value.

Just as a side note, there were two goals scored in the second half of this match.

Of course, there are many other benefits that the Cluster Tables give to traders. To be able to estimate pretty accurately the probabilities on the total number of goals in 90 minutes is immensely useful for many trading decisions!

Can I also use the HO/AO cluster tables for other markets e.g. 1X2 or BTTS etc.?

The HO/AO Cluster tables have been developed exclusively for Over/Under goals bets.

You can use them to identify value bets, to compile portfolios for the Over/Under market, to predict odds movements in the ante-post market; they are even useful for trading as you can estimate the total number of goals expected in the game, but not for any other markets.

You are selling HDA Tables as well as Cluster Tables. What is the difference? Can they be used in conjunction?

The HDA Tables and the Cluster Tables are two totally different products, not only because one has been developed for 1×2 betting and the other for Over/Under betting but especially because one is focusing on system betting (HDA tables) and the other on value betting (Cluster Tables).

That doesnâ€™t mean that system betting if carried out properly doesnâ€™t contain â€˜valueâ€™. Of course, it does! There is no system in this universe that can earn money if the mathematical advantage is not on your side.

However, as we frequently receive this question it must confuse many readers, so here’s a brief explanation of the differences between â€˜system bettingâ€™ and â€˜value bettingâ€™.

System betting is a predetermined selection of bets that when combined represent a profitable betting scenario. Systems allow the gambler to have an edge or an advantage.

However, system betting requires a huge amount of discipline and follow-through from the start to the end (or to a suitable closure point in profit), preferably without missing betting on any matches included in the system. This means that if the system requires you to place 17 bets through the whole season on a certain selection criterion, then you really should place them all for best results!

Hereâ€™s an example: In 2015, a German HDA table user wrote to us suggesting that he could get a positive return by backing the underdog in all 17 home games of SV Hamburg with 100 unit flat stakes. This was a very simple system and he regularly updated us about his progress. The problem was that after three consecutive losses he abandoned the system and here you can read what exactly went wrong: The Gamblerâ€™s Worst Enemy: Emotions!

If only he had continued without faltering, he would have received a very good return!

Therefore, system betting is only for those who are dedicated and fully able to switch-off their emotions, or who are capable of programming a bot to place automatic and unemotional bets for them.

A big challenge with system betting is, that at some point the bookmakers will have adjusted for the system to make it no longer profitable. This means that a former well-working system may cease to work and the system bettor needs to completely review his/her system.

Value Betting is a totally different approach and it is said that it is one of the best techniques for gaining profit with betting. A value bet is the one where the chances of the bet winning are better than the odds suggest and all you need to do is to take advantage of this situation.

On contrary to system betting, value betting doesnâ€™t require constant attention to any league and fixture lists can be dipped into entirely at your leisure. There are no time constraints or pressure to have to place bets.

Value betting relies on identifying over-priced or under-priced bets. For example, find as many of them as possible and play them as a weekend portfolio. This provides diversification of risk and with a proper staking plan and maybe weighting the stakes accordingly, all bets can be placed at the same time and then left alone.

Normally, when the calculations have been carried out correctly, each round of matches should produce a positive return. Only in very exceptional circumstances may one round turn out to be negative – in cases where there are more outliers than usual, which is always possible.

I wrote about an anomaly that happened on the 5/2/2011 in the EPL; an anomaly that happens statistically only once every 760 rounds of matches, or the equivalent of once every 20 seasons! Heart Beats Brain â€“ Is Accurate Forecasting of Specific Results in Football Matches Possible?

Therefore, youâ€™ll have to make a decision:

Do you feel that System Betting is more suitable to your needs and personality (there you donâ€™t have to calculate so much but simply stick to the system), or are you more into Value Betting (calculating each individual match and compiling a portfolio of bets for each round)?

Can you guarantee that you will be able to follow through the same system for an entire season without deviating, or would you prefer to do some experimenting as you go along?

It really depends what your answer is to enable you to decide if you prefer the HDA Tables (system betting) or the Course book and Cluster Tables (value betting). Please don’t make the choice because one is 1×2 betting and the other Over/Under betting. We simply have not yet published a course book on 1×2 odds calculation (value betting) or Over/Under inflection point tables (system betting).

Did you try this method of calculation of goals before producing it?
If yes, what results did you have?
I understand the concepts presented in it, but I am very sceptical about getting good results. Iâ€™ve seen a lot of so-called experts selling products and services relating to gambling.
Do you think someone can succeed long term with this method?

First of all, neither the Over/Under coursebook nor its accompanying cluster tables are a ‘method’ or system! The coursebook teaches statistics and explains in great length how bookmakers use statistics to make profits, and the cluster tables contain a very practical application of statistics for those who wish to find an edge when making betting decisions.

Statistics is a mathematical science that pertains to the collection, analysis, interpretation, explanation, and presentation of data; statistics is a collection of mathematical techniques and not a ‘method’!

Itâ€™s a long while ago that we did public match previews, but here is one of our records: Soccerwidowâ€™s Value Betting Results: 274 Bets, from 07/12/2011 to 30/06/2012

At this time, I was writing match previews for the German Betfair blog (until Betfair withdrew from Germany due to a change in the gambling laws there). The 274 bets relate to matches I reviewed and provided tips for in my Betfair articles.

With the closing of the German Betfair blog, I was forced to stop the public match previews, not because they were unsuccessful, but because they were hugely time-consuming and I lost the client who paid me for my time to do them. Each preview article cost perhaps five to six hours to carry out the calculations, choose the picks, and then write an article each time.

Therefore, I had to make at that time the decision if either Iâ€™m going to become a (paid) tipster service or if I better develop Soccerwidow to an educational website and a reliable source of mathematical and statistical knowledge for bettors.

I’ve chosen the second option! Because I strongly believe that it is better to teach people to think for themselves than encourage them to blindly follow someone else’s picks!

As a side note, readers of Soccerwidow as well as its German-language sister site, Fussballwitwe, have been nagging me for years to reveal how I selected these hugely successful tips, which is why the Odds Calculation course came into being.

So, yes, you will get good results by using statistics! 🙂

Do I really need the course book to understand the Cluster Tables?

The course is designed to introduce readers to the essential, fundamental knowledge necessary to understand odds calculation and the bookmaker market. Its intention is to introduce the subject of odds calculation to punters. A whole realm of statistical methods, distributions, graphs, financial terminology, and so on, are included in the course to show the reader how professionals (such as bookmakers) go about setting their odds.

Studies Grades Bachelor – Master – PhD

To put the Odds Calculation Course into perspective please look at the image above. Although the course serves as an ‘introduction’, if there were such a thing as a â€˜betting degreeâ€™ available at universities then the mathematics and concepts contained in the course would be suitable for students at ‘Bachelor’ level.

However, the Cluster Tables and utilising them properly and to their full potential is on the ‘Masters’ level, but like any degree, you first need to attain Bachelor status before attempting a Masters degree.

Learning is hard for a great many people and you will really need to work fully through the course until you comprehend absolutely everything. Buyers of the course also receive the German Bundesliga Cluster Table, which is a fun tool to test on paper and for real money. We give it away as part of the course package as the Bundesliga is just about the most statistically compliant league of any you can find. Only, when you are comfortable with its use and applications should you consider purchasing more volatile leagues such as the English Premier League.

In summary, you must thoroughly understand the fundamentals of bookmaking (e.g. odds calculation) before you can use that knowledge to your own advantage and, like everything worthwhile having in life, it will take time.

Hereâ€™s a comment from a statistician who checked the coursebook before we put it on sale:

â€œOverall, I think the book is an excellent introduction to the subject. It is very compelling that the bookmaker odds are based so clearly on the statistics, not the minute details that fans are so focused on. How close the fair odds calculations come to the actual posted odds is really striking. I can see why it is so eye-opening for the casual bettor.

Just as an aside, probably four different times, I tried to jump ahead and not do some portion of the earlier exercises, because I was convinced I knew the probability calculations already. And even though I did, I still found I really needed to work through everything methodically if I wanted to fully understand it. I bet other readers will probably try to do the same thing! However, my advice is to go through everything slowly and steadily; it is very well laid out and each piece builds on the next, just as it is intended to.â€

Therefore, yes, you should really consider purchasing the course book if you want to fully understand and make the most of the Cluster Tables.

Once I have worked through the course and bought a few Cluster Tables, will I be able to earn money from betting?

At the end of the course there are a few suggestions (examples) on how to select value bets, and there are purposely included a few contradictory examples to make the statement that â€œmany roads lead to Romeâ€. Each of those examples finishes with a profit but the approaches to pick â€˜valueâ€™ bets are totally different.

Unfortunately, there is no perfect â€˜rightâ€™ or â€˜wrongâ€™ strategy that applies to every league in this world and to every bettor in each country. A blueprint suitable for everything simply doesnâ€™t exist. Sorry!

Make sure you truly work through the whole book and carry out each of the exercises in the course. Then at the end, applying all your newly gained knowledge and experimenting with various selection criteria (firstly on paper, of course) you should reach a stage where you should be able to recognise ‘value’.

Itâ€™s not easy, I know, but Iâ€™m sure that you will eventually utilise the knowledge in the course about odds calculation and the bookmaker market to figure something out that works for you.

>>> 5 simple steps to use the tables <<<

## Product-Related Questions

What is the HO/AO quotient?

The division of HO (Home Odds) by AO (AO Odds) reflects the â€œstrengthâ€ of the teams perceived by the public and makes upcoming games comparable with past matches, of which the results are known.

When building the quotient weâ€™re not asking ourselves the question, â€œAre these teams really equal?â€ or, “Is the favourite priced correctly?” We do not check the 1Ã—2 odds at all; we simply use market prices and assume that the Bookmakers have taken statistics into account and reflected public opinion (e.g. team ranking) as well as they possibly could do when setting their odds.

The HO/AO quotient is, therefore, an ideal method of comparing an upcoming match with the nearest batch of equivalent games against teams of similar perceived strength to the opponent under analysis.

If Hannover are 7.52 to beat Bayern Munich and Bayern Munich are 1.50 to beat Hannover, it makes sense to look at comparable matches where other teams carried similar prices in their respective home and away games in the past.

Whatâ€™s the significance of each HO/AO quartile? What do the clusters say about the comparative strength of teams?

When looking at the tables in the Bundesliga for any team, the following categories become apparent when dividing games into ‘perceived strength’:

1. HO/AO: up to 0.2918
The home team is the clear favourite with a very good chance of winning (the weight of money makes the home team the overwhelming favourite)
2. HO/AO: 0.2919 to 0.5292
The home team is definitely stronger than the away team, but there is also a good chance of a draw in the game (fluctuating opinion between home or draw)
3. HO/AO: 0.5293 to 0.7830
It is not really clear in which direction the game will develop (no overwhelming favourite)
4. HO/AO: 0.7831 to 1,3172
The chance of a draw is quite high as both teams are perceived to be of equal strength (no overwhelming favourite)
5. HO/AO: over 1,3173
The home team is perceived as being much weaker than the away team; the public feels that it could be an away win (the perceived favourite is the away team)

Take any Bundesliga weekend and cluster the matches according to the above HO/AO quotients (before kick-off) and check against the distribution of results. You will see that they hardly distribute according to the expectations (HO/AO clusters). That’s what makes 1×2 betting so very tricky.

However, there is a strong correlation between the HO/AO quotients and the observed O/U results!

Unfortunately, the explanation is not short and/or sweet enough to pack it into an answer in the FAQs section. Youâ€™ll just have to believe that the HO/AO quotient is a very important factor when judging if OU odds contain value or not and, of course, you’ll find lengthy explanations in the course book.

If I want to calculate the odds, say for Chelsea vs Arsenal coming up soon, would it be wise to get the Value Calculator AS WELL AS the Cluster Tables so I can get the more accurate figures for over/under goals?

If you want to calculate the odds quickly for various betting markets, and you already have a good statistical knowledge and understanding, the Value Calculator is enough.

However, if you are not so familiar with mathematical terms like â€˜deviationâ€™, â€˜rangeâ€™, â€˜medianâ€™ or find it challenging to judge if prices (odds) are fair, then you should certainly consider the course book (not the Cluster Tables at this stage! They are an auxiliary product to the coursebook – You wonâ€™t be able to utilise them to their full potential without having worked through the course).

For teams without five season histories, can I take the league average as a benchmark for deciding whether or not value exists in the given match?

Unfortunately, not.

Hereâ€™s a screenshot for the German Bundesliga Over â€˜Xâ€™ Goals averages for five seasons:

Bundesliga averages 2012-13 to 2016-17 – Over goals frequency

And hereâ€™s a screenshot for five teams (playing in all five of those seasons) and their respective frequencies of Over â€˜Xâ€™ goals:

Some BL teams playing at home – 2012-13 to 2016-17 – Over goals frequency

You can clearly see that the frequencies for the different teams are all very different.

Please look closely at the Over 1.5 Goals curve: Wolfsburg, with the highest frequency of 88.24%, is still lower than the Bundesliga average frequency (93.2%). How can this possibly be?

The explanation is the overwhelming influence of Bayern Munichâ€™s performance. Hereâ€™s another screenshot:

BL teams playing at home – 2012-13 to 2016-17; incl. Bayern Munich

Bayernâ€™s results tend to skew the Bundesliga averages and â€˜correctsâ€™ them to a level no other team achieves if looked at individually.

Have a look at the Over 4.5 Goals curve: Bayern achieved 28.24% during the period shown, whilst Augsburg, for example, achieved only 8.24%.

To reiterate therefore, it is not advisable to take the league average as a benchmark for deciding whether or not value exists in any given match. Even if you remove Bayern from the Bundesliga statistics, the results will be skewed by the next most extreme outlier, and so on.

And unfortunately, this is the case in any league, not just in Germany.

If the given match provides value above the league average, is this not also a value bet?

League averages should never be a benchmark for any betting decision, neither in the Over/Under goals market nor in any other betting market.

League averages contain all matches: those between very strong favourites and poorly performing outsiders; matches between equally strong teams, etc.

Any teamâ€™s performance is totally different to another teamâ€™s performance: every football fan knows this. Only because â€˜on averageâ€™ the probability for over 2.5 goals is 52.58% (e.g. the EPL), it doesnâ€™t necessarily follow that every match has a minimum (or maximum) probability of 52.58% (odds 1.90) as well.

For example, the match Manchester United against Liverpool on 10th March 2018 had a â€˜trueâ€™ probability of 62.50% (odds 1.60) to finish with over 2.5 goals. The highest over 2.5 goal odds at kick-off for that match were 2.00 and therefore it was a â€˜valueâ€™ bet, but not because the odds were â€˜above the league averageâ€™ but because they were above the expected â€˜zeroâ€™ odds for that individual match.

On the other hand, the match West Ham vs. Stoke on 16th April wasnâ€™t a â€˜valueâ€™ bet although the over 2.5 goals odds were 2.21, well above the league average (1.90). However, using the Cluster Tables and calculating the â€˜trueâ€™ probability for that game (according to their HO/AO cluster) the probability was actually only 39.50% (in odds: 2.53) and therefore well under-priced.

As a side note, Man Utd vs Liverpool finished with three goals (2-1) and West Ham vs Stoke with two goals (1-1). The ‘Over 2.5 goals’ bet for Man Utd vs Liverpool had a probability of 62.5% to win and the ‘Under 2.5 goals’ bet had a probability of 60.5%. That’s the reason why these two examples were chosen. At the time of writing these FAQs I was especially concentrating on EPL matches that had a probability of over 60% in the O/U 2.5 goals market. That both randomly chosen example games finished ‘statistically correct’ was a lucky stroke as there was also a good 40% probability in both cases that they wouldn’t.

## Purchase Questions

The Cluster Tables for different leagues have different prices. Why?

The price of each league is dependent on the number of possible matches available for analysis during the current season.

Remember, only matches between teams with five complete seasons in the league immediately prior to the season under analysis qualify for value bet detection using the Cluster Tables.

For example, the 2017-18 England Championship (EC) Cluster Table contained only six teams (out of 24) with five seasons of data spanning 2012-13 to 2016-17: Birmingham, Derby, Ipswich, Leeds, Nottingham Forest, and Sheffield Wednesday. Only games between these teams would be available for betting using the Cluster Table approach.

Therefore, from the full complement of 552 EC games during the full 2017-18 season only 30 (5.4%) were available for betting, hence this leagueâ€™s low price of just Â£7.50.

However, the 2017-18 England Premier League (EPL) contained 12 teams (out of 20) with five seasons of data: Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Southampton, Stoke, Swansea, Tottenham, West Bromwich Albion, and West Ham United.

These 12 teams accounted for a total of 132 matches between each other, against the total number of 380 games in the whole EPL season. Therefore, 34.7% of games were available for betting in this league, and accordingly the price of the EPL Cluster Table was Â£27.50.

The prices of the Cluster Tables will therefore vary each season from league to league as the number of games available for betting fluctuates with the numbers of teams playing in at least their sixth consecutive season.

What does, for example, â€œvalid for the 2019/20 seasonâ€ mean?

Leagues spanning two calendar years are what we term â€˜Winter Leaguesâ€™.

This means that the Cluster Tables will expire when the 2019-20 season finishes (different times for different leagues).

However, timing your purchase of these Cluster Tables is not critical as we email to all clients who bought Cluster Tables in the second half of a season the updated and usually upgraded tables for the following season free of charge just as soon as they are published.

What does, for example, “valid for 2020 season” mean?

Leagues taking place within just one calendar year are what we term â€˜Summer Leaguesâ€™.

Again, timing your purchase of these Cluster Tables is not critical as we email to all clients who bought Cluster Tables in the second half of a season the updated and usually upgraded tables for the following season free of charge just as soon as they are published.

As a purchaser of your fine book on football statistical analysis several years ago, I understand that I have lifetime access annually to the tables for the German Bundesliga league when they are renewed each summer. I was wondering if you might be agreeable to a swop from the Bundesliga to the English Premier League instead please?

The reason the coursebook centres around the Bundesliga and why we give away the Bundesliga table as a free, fully working Cluster Table is primarily that the German league plays more statistically correct than just about any other league we know of. The free lifetime download that comes with purchasing the coursebook is, therefore, a download to the most reliable league, which should produce the most reliable results using the Cluster Table for betting.

In contrast, the EPL is just about the most unpredictable league of all but is, of course, the most popular when it comes to liquidity and low margins.

When deciding whether to choose the EPL or the Bundesliga for over/under goals analyses, our advice is to stick to the Bundesliga for prediction making purposes. However, of course, if you wish to extend you betting endeavours to the EPL then here’s the link to buy the table: Soccerwidow’s Shop

Can I make the Cluster Tables by myself? It would be time consuming but much cheaper for me.

Of course, theoretically it is possible to make Cluster Tables by yourself but believe me, your time is much better spent trying to figure out a selection system using the tables that works for you. Time is money, after all.

Furthermore, data collection is very time-consuming. Spend the time more wisely making the tables work for you and hopefully at the end of the season youâ€™ll find it easy to pay for their updated versions using some of your winnings.

Let us worry about compiling the tables â€“ they are complicated mechanisms, which need to be checked for accuracy by more than one person. Even if youâ€™re an Excel expert, one mistake in the programming will give you false results.

Do you have discounts for multiple purchases?

Of course, we have! Here they are:

Buy 5, 6, 7, 8 or 9 Tables, get 20% off – Code: CLT20
Buy 10 Tables, get 30% off â€“ Code: CLT30
Buy >10 Tables, get 35% off â€“ Code: CLT35

To purchase the tables just visit the shop, load the tables you would like to buy into your shopping cart and then apply the discount code depending upon how many tables you are buying. The coupon code box is in the bottom-left-hand-corner of your cart. Press ‘Update Cart’ to apply the discount and then check-out using PayPal or your card.

We also sell tables in popular bundles of five or more leagues, where prices are discounted by 40% and even higher.

## Ordering & Delivery

How can I pay for the tables? I have neither a PayPal account nor a credit card.

Details of alternative payment options can be found here: Payment Options. They include Skrill (Moneybookers), Neteller and bank transfer (EFT).

What is the price equivalence in USD?

I live in Hungary; if I understand you correctly, the purchase price for the EPL table is therefore Â£27.50 * 1.27 = Â£34.92. Is that right?

Yes, this is correct. Soccerwidow Ltd is obliged in accordance with applicable law to charge Value Added Tax (VAT) on sales of digital products and services to customers within the European Union (EU).

The VAT rate applied to these products and services is based on the location of the customer (point of sale). See the current EU VAT Rates.

When will my credit card be charged?

Your credit card will be charged at the time your order is placed.

Is it safe to use my credit card on your site?

Yes, it is safe.

For processing orders we use the services of GetDPD which is a fully PCI Compliant Service Provider. During the checkout process you will be offered to choose payment by Paypal or credit card.

If you choose credit card, then the platform integrated with GetDPD is Stripe; here is their security documentation.

Can I cancel my order?

As long as you have not paid there is no order. You can always return to your shopping cart and simply delete any items you don’t wish to see in your shopping cart.

However, once you have paid you will get the product download link delivered immediately to your inbox. As long as you don’t download the product(s) you have a cancellation period of 14 days and the right of a full return. Otherwise, once downloaded, there are no returns for digital content.

If you have made a genuine mistake, itâ€™s worth contacting us to see if you can get a refund. Normally, we will offer an exchange for another product or supply a discount code for future purchases.

How long will it take my order to arrive?

You will receive an email from GetDPD, our digital delivery partner.

Should your download link not arrive within 10 minutes after purchasing, please check your spam folder. We do sometimes receive reports from our clients that GetDPD emails land there occasionally. You can play it safe and allow within your email program emails with the endings: digitalproductdelivery.com (GetDPD) and soccerwidow.com (us).

‘Allowing’ communications from digitalproductdelivery.com and soccerwidow.com is actually quite important because we do upgrade products from time to time and you certainly don’t want to miss the free download link we will send out to buyers.

## Trouble-shooting

When filling out my address details in the shopping cart order form, the field ‘State/Province’ is mandatory. I cannot see states or provinces from my country.

Please check your Spam folder; sometimes our automated emails from GetDPD appear there. If you canâ€™t find it please email to support[at]soccerwidow[dot]com, and we will get it sorted.

The download time limit is set to two weeks from the moment you purchase. The reason being that customers have a cancellation period of 14 days with the right of a full return as long as they haven’t downloaded the product within this period.

Therefore, if you have not downloaded your product, after a period of two weeks has expired you can either apply for a refund or send an email to support[at]soccerwidow[dot]com for a link reactivation.

Another request we occasionally receive is from buyers who have lost their original product or forgotten to download it, and then many months later wish to reactivate the download link. We are really sorry, but our grace period is 6 months only. After this time a fee of Â£10 will be charged for us to trace you in the system and manually reactivate the purchase.

## Support Questions

How do I get support?

You can ask questions via the comment functions in any articles on this site. We normally reply within a few hours. The answer will be submitted to your inbox.

In addition, if you subscribe to a post which interests you, then you will also receive questions and replies other readers have posted on the same article, and of course, our replies too.

Can I e-mail you with any questions I might have about the course?

You can always ask any questions via the comment functions at the bottom of any article in this blog. However, please try first to find an answer to your question using the search function on the top right. There are hundreds of articles to read and knowledge to acquire from.

If you cannot find a satisfying answer to your question, then post it in the closest corresponding article on the topic. This is free of charge for you. You will receive our answer submitted directly to your inbox, with no need for continuous checking.

However, you may like individual coaching; this can be done via email in connection with Skype or even in person, but for that you will have to travel to Tenerife for at least one week. But note that none of these training options is free.

Should you be interested in getting personalised tuition then please outline what exactly you are trying to achieve and enquire our prices for that extra service via email: sales[at]soccerwidow[dot]com

I am unsure of the Cluster Tableâ€™s purpose. They seem to provide the probability of over or under goals but doesn’t the Soccerwidow Value Bet detector do this as well? Therefore, what is the advantage of using the Cluster Tables over the Value Calculator? They both rely on different data as Value Calculator takes into account the last 25 league games of both teams plus the correction factor of head-to-heads, and the Cluster Tables take into account the teamâ€™s results against all other teams over multiple seasons. Which is more accurate?

The Cluster Tables accompany the Odds Calculation Course and relate directly to its teachings. The betting tables within the Cluster Tables group the Over/Under bets into their correlation (mutual relationship or connection) with the strength of the teams. This being the case, they are much more accurate than the Value Calculator, but to fully understand why, youâ€™ll need to purchase the Course.

Furthermore, the Cluster Tables require minimal data input, whilst the Value Calculator requires gathering data manually and inputting it for the last 25 matches for both teams (plus the respective head-to-heads) for every match you wish to analyse.

On the other hand, the Value Bet Detector estimates the probabilities for many more bet types and not just for the Over/Under goals. It provides an excellent rough guide to whether there is any value in the odds on offer in over sixty different betting markets. (1X2, Over/Under, Correct Score, etc.)

If you are looking to estimate the probabilities of many bet types, choose the Value Calculator.

However, if youâ€™d prefer a deep-dive approach and would like to learn more about odds calculation and the market dynamics of the bookmaker market then you should consider purchasing the Course.

I am concerned about the correctness of the HO/AO quotient. There are some bookmakers that constantly offer â€˜heavily inflated oddsâ€™, e.g. 1.18 on Bayern at home whilst the next best price is 1.10. If we are using these odds as â€œpublic opinion correction factorâ€, and we have 79 bookies showing odds between 1.08 to 1.10 and just this one with 1.18. I wouldnâ€™t feel comfortable using their price for any calculations. Of course, this only becomes an issue when it affects in which cluster group a game falls, but I already saw it happen twice in a few matches I checked. Am I wrong to dismiss their odds in such situations?

The Cluster Tables use odds recorded close to or at the end of the ante-post betting market. In other words, just prior to or at kick-off. The majority of Cluster Tables utilise odds courtesy of Pinnacle, the most popular low-margin bookmaker around. A small minority of tables use the highest bookmaker odds from a panel of bookmakers at www.Oddsportal.com using our own personal settings.

For tables utilising Pinnacle odds, you need only check which odds Pinnacle is offering at the time of your analysis to determine which HO/AO quotient applied to your chosen match. For tables using Oddsportal highest odds, it is a matter of determining from our own personal settings list of bookmakers what the highest home and away odds for the match are. In both cases, the best time to carry out this analysis is during the final hour before kick-off and preferably after team news has been released.

Clicking on individual leagues within the Soccerwidow store will allow you to see whether they were compiled with Pinnacle odds or Oddsportal bookmaker panel odds.

Last Update: 30 August 2018

### 9 Responses to “Frequently Asked Questions â€“ Over Under Cluster Tables”

1. 22 January 2019 at 4:36 pm #

“You can see that the expected probability for this game (in 90 minutes) having over 0.5 goals was 93.7%. Even though it may challenge a few preconceived ideas about probabilities, you must understand that at half-time, when the score was 0-0, the probability for match ending with over 0.5 goals was still 93.7%!!

Even though the match had already reached half-time, the overriding probability for one goal hadnâ€™t changed. But, the odds for over 0.5 goals certainly had changed â€“ the price will have risen, not by a huge amount, but enough to turn the bet into a lucrative value bet.”

Is this true even if the match gets to say: 85 mins and it’s still 0-0? Even for any number of goals not just one?

I have been told again, and again that time decay does not create value, so these statements are really hard for me to accept as being valid.

• 22 January 2019 at 5:05 pm #

Hi Andrew, here are a few numbers…

EPL: 0-0 league average for 5 years: 7.8%

1st Goal in First Half: 1,363 matches = 71.7%
1st Goal in Second Half – up to 80 min: 304 matches = 16.0%
1st Goal in Second Half – after 80th minute: 84 matches = 4.4%

So, if you count the first two figures together you get 71.7% plus 16.0% = 87.7%

That means that in 87.7% of the observed matches there was already a goal but 12.3% of the EPL matches (233) were still without goals (0-0) in their 80th minute. In 84 of these matches, there was at least one late 1st goal, meaning that in over a third (36.1% to be exact) of the goalless games in the 80th minute one goal was scored.

So, the probability for a match finishing with over 0.5 goals after the 80th minute drops to 36.1% but only if you look at ALL matches but in the example I’m speaking about I’m not talking about the EPL statistics in general but about a particular match with a 93.7% probability and this probability remains unchanged, even at the 80th minute if there haven’t been any goals until then.

• 22 January 2019 at 5:23 pm #

Ok, well I might try and incorporate that then.

2. 3 October 2018 at 5:32 pm #

Dear Soccerwidow,

In certain leagues, like Scotland, Belgium, apart from regular season there is a play-off round and/or relegation matches. Are cluster tables for O/U suited for those matches or should they be avoided?

• 4 October 2018 at 6:34 am #

Hi Socrates,

Although the play-off rounds and relegation matches are not included in the cluster tables to carry out the calculations you can certainly use the tables to judge if there is value involved in the odds or not. However, please allow for a higher uncertainty factor (error).

The same applies for FA and other cup matches if there are teams playing that are covered by the tables. Cup matches are not included in the historical data in the tables in order of not screwing up the stats but if the teams are covered by the tables you can use the calculations for estimating value.

3. 24 April 2018 at 3:24 pm #

Hi Elena,

I’m trying to purchase 9 of the cluster tables: USA MLS, Japan J1 League, Korea K-League, Sweden Allsvenskan, Norway Tippeligaen, Brazil Serie A, Ireland Premier League, Finland Veikkausliiga and Iceland Ãšrvalsdeild.

So I proceeded to the check-out. I entered the discount code (for 9 items which it says is a 45% discount).

But the screen says ‘Please correct the following: Cart must have at least 9 eligible items to redeems this coupon’.

Aren’t the cluster tables for each of these leagues eligible items?

Kind regards,

Audiendi

• 24 April 2018 at 4:46 pm #

Hi Audiendi,

Sorry, I’ve just checked the problem and corrected a minor programming error – hopefully checkout should work fine with the discount code now.

Again, sorry for wasting your time.

• 24 April 2018 at 5:53 pm #

Hey there Right Winger,

Thanks for fixing that. One other thing, for some reason it’s now not accepting either my debit card or my credit card.

Is that another glitch? It could be at my end, otherwise.

Kind regards,

Audiendi

• 24 April 2018 at 7:30 pm #

Hi Audiendi,

I cannot think of any explanation why neither your credit card nor your debit card was accepted. Can you please try to check out via PayPal as a ‘guest’?

If the problem persists then it’s probably your card(s), otherwise it may be a technical error with our credit card processor. I’ll contact them should you succeed with PayPal.

If nothing works, I’ll email you our bank details and add another job to my list of things to sort out. 🙂

Best wishes,
Elena