HDAFU Tables: £20k in 214 days with the Winter Leagues

Following up the successful 2016 Summer League Campaign, here is our complete report on the 2016-17 Winter League Campaign, based on 18 different top flight leagues.

2016-17 Winter League Profit Curve

We will try to avoid repeating what was said in the summer league article so that it is all new information for you here.

For the sake of completeness, you should still read and digest both reports for a full idea of our strategies and thought processes.

And you will find the current stock of available HDAFU tables via this link.

2016-17 Campaign Report

Measures of Risk

Before beginning to plan any portfolio or placing bets, you will need to review your analyses and rank the systems you have found according to risk exposure based on the values of the upper inflection point odds.

This will allow you to compile a portfolio with a healthy balance of risk, which is essential to the success of any investment plan.

Here is our rough guide:

• Low Risk (Probability 45.00% or more; upper inflection point maximum odds of 2.22)
• Low-medium Risk (Probability 44.99%-35.00%; upper inflection point maximum odds of 2.85)
• Medium Risk (Probability 34.99%-22.50%; upper inflection point maximum odds of 4.44)
• Medium-high Risk (Probability 22.99%-16.00%; upper inflection point maximum odds of 6.25)
• High Risk (Probability 15.99% or less; upper inflection point odds above 6.25)

Discretion is used if a system does not fit these parameters or crosses two or more classifications – In these cases, the harmonic mean odds of all the games in the set is used as the benchmark to guage risk. The Excel formula for a range of odds in cells A1 to A100 would be: =HARMEAN(A1:A100)

Measures of Success

You will also need a definitive framework to be able to judge the final results.

For us, the final results of any league fall into four distinct categories:

• Systems that achieve a six-season-high (i.e. profits larger than any of the previous five seasons). (Over-Achievers).
• Those that make a profit over and above the size of the initial stake (£100 in our case), but fall short of six-season-high results. (Achievers).
• Strategies that break-even or, record a tiny profit or loss up to the size of the initial stake (£100 in our case). (Zero-Sum).
• Leagues that make a loss over and above the size of the initial stake. (Losers).

You can already see that two of these outcomes are favourable, one is neutral, and only one is detrimental.

2016-17 League-by-League Review

Let’s have a brief look at each league to see how our 22 systems fared. (Alphabetically according to the tab codes in the workbook):

1. AUS1 – Austria Bundesliga – Whole Season System

Risk: Medium-high

Only eight of 28 bets won, but this was enough to see a profit of £882.00. Hit rate and yield were both below the calculated averages and the resultant profit figure was lower than any of the five previous seasons’ figures.

Result: Achiever

2. BEL1 – Belgium Jupiler League – Whole Season System
Up to, but not including Europa League and Championship Group splits

Risk: Medium

Both the estimated hit rate (33 out of 97 bets won) and yield figures were surpassed by wide margins, leading to a six-season-high profit figure of £3,108.00.

Result: Over-Achiever

3. CZE1A – Czech Republic 1. Liga – First Half Season System
Up to the 04/12/2016 winter break

Risk: Medium

Nine out of 22 bets won, and whilst the hit rate and yield both outstripped expectations, the profit figure settled at £1,247.00, the fourth largest in the last six seasons.

Result: Achiever

4. CZE1B – Czech Republic 1. Liga – Second Half Season System
From 18/02/2017 start of the second half of the season

Risk: Low

This one suffered its worst result in the last six seasons, but the resultant loss was minimal at -£310.00.

Result: Loser

5. DEN1A – Denmark Superligaen – First Half Season System

Risk: Medium

This was the only system employed in this league purely because the format of the second half of the 2016-17 season was to change from previous seasons.

Although hit rate and yield were both below estimates, the system still recorded its third highest total for six seasons at £1,238.00.

There were twice as many bets than expected (largely due to the fact that around 40% more games than usual were played in the first half of the season to accommodate the new second half season format).

Result: Achiever

6. ENG1 – England Premier League – Whole Season System

Risk: High

This system suffered the longest losing streak we have ever encountered, almost 14% worse than expected, for a very painful 36 straight losses. (A six-season-low).

However, the situation was mostly recovered by three big winners all carrying odds of over 12.00, for a final loss of just -£32.00.

The last six bets of the season lost, but had only one of these been a winner, this system would have returned a profit. Small margins.

Result: Zero-Sum

7. FRA1 – France Ligue 1 – Whole Season System

Risk: Low-medium

Hit rate and yield were both below par, but the league turned in a steady performance for a profit of £1,634.00, ranked fifth largest in the last six seasons.

Result: Achiever

8. FRA2 – France Ligue 2 – Whole Season System

Risk: Low-medium

The same story as France Ligue 1, but with a profit of £2,801.00, for its third largest profit figure in six seasons.

This one was unusual for a much higher number of bets than expected. (215 vs. 119 estimate – Profit was at £2,523.00 after 119 bets).

Result: Achiever

9. GER1A – Germany Bundesliga 1 – First Half Season System
Up to 21/12/2016 winter break

Risk: Medium-high

Another below par system, but one that still achieved a profit of £1,098.00. (Fourth largest in six seasons).

Result: Achiever

10. GER1B – Germany Bundesliga 1 – Second Half Season System
From 20/01/2017 start of the second half of the season

Risk: Medium

The very rare inclusion of a system with two non-profitable seasons (the oldest two) in the previous five.

It featured one more bet than expected, which won, to total one more winner than expected. Hit rate and yield both exceeded estimates for a profit of £1,294.00. (Fourth largest in six seasons).

Result: Achiever

11. GRE1 – Greece Super League – Whole Season System

Risk: Low-medium

The hit rate here was almost 8% below estimate and resulted in the worst performance for six seasons, and a loss of -£819.00.

Result: Loser

Last Update: 2 August 2017

223 Responses to “HDAFU Tables: £20k in 214 days with the Winter Leagues”

1. Rado
18 December 2017 at 12:03 am #

Just a quick update here. After 6 straight weeks with minimal profit/loss (under 1 unit), this week was incredibly successful – over 15 units profit! Some systems have been exploding recently, but the problem is that the others are failing greatly – for example the away win in Spain and the home win in Australia. The favourites in Switzerland are also a disaster. These three systems are performing incredibly bad and each of them is at about 10 unit loss. If they were not here, I would have been in an enormous profit (I’m still in profit, but not that big). For the past 2 monts, thing have been improving a bit, I hope this trend continues into the next year.

• jo
19 December 2017 at 3:49 pm #

Hi Rado,

great to know you have positive results recently. My results are improving also, I was at the record low of -7050, now it’s -1040. Downswing from the highest to the lowest bank is 10000, at 100 flat stakes. Results started to pick up after 480 bets out of 1300 estimated. I have 686 bets placed in total. This campaign is very heavily demoralizing, strong nerves and huge patience demanding.

Regarding your Swiss favourites, I bet this system too. Current result is profit unlike yours and I’m pretty sure I know what odds range you bet on there. When I sorted everything out I didn’t like zero odds were higher than the lower inflection point, difference – 18 ticks. Quite significant at these odds in my eyes. So, I decided to shorten the odds range I would bet on – raising lower inflection point and lowering upper inflection point. And I got zero odds lower than my lower inflection point – every bet I will place will be value bet. I tried to cut lower odds first, but it still didn’t work out, so I cut odds from both sides. This manipulation cut potential profits by almost a half over 5 seasons and 1 season turned into a loss, but for now it works, although it’s whole season strategy and final result is in question. But that’s an idea for you in the future if you keep doing this.

Good luck to everyone.

2. Scott
14 December 2017 at 7:30 am #

Hi – is there an ETA for the Summer League sheets yet, please? I’m keen on getting the lot once you’ve got them sorted.

Thanks.

• Right Winger
15 December 2017 at 4:04 pm #

Hi Scott,

The 2018 Summer League tables are now available for sale.

They should be the most accurate tables we have released to date with every set of 1X2 odds checked and audited to represent the highest odds at the close of the ante post market.

They also include a new tool that generates the implied probability of a chosen system in accordance with its harmonic mean odds. This should allow users to easily gauge the risk of each system and to build a well-balanced portfolio of systems.

3. Scott
12 December 2017 at 6:02 pm #

In the interests of balance, and recognising that this has taken some bad press this season, my summer league campaign ended up returning an 800% profit on the cost of the spreadsheets (at a flat £25 per bet).

My winter league is now breaking even having been 36 points down at its lowest ebb. It’s performing much more reliably now. I fully intend to purchase a full suite of sheets for the summer leagues.

4. Timmyp
10 December 2017 at 1:38 am #

Has anyone persevered with this?

5. Thechump
14 November 2017 at 9:00 pm #

Thanks for your swift response Right Winger. Yes, your response makes sense. I always believed that the larger the data sample, the more accurate the probability model would be. I can now see that the changes to a league makeup could have an effect. Did you experiment with shorter/longer periods when reaching your conclusion of 5 seasons or was this a gut feeling starting point for you?

• Right Winger
21 November 2017 at 4:02 pm #

Yes, we did experiment with various analyses. Even to the point of recording how many teams would be making at least their sixth consecutive appearance in the forthcoming season; in other words, what percentage of teams’ statistics would be made up of five whole seasons prior (i.e. five season ever-present teams).

Visually, some leagues’ data have a ‘consistency’ percentage in the 70’s or 80’s (e.g. U.S.A. M.L.S. = no relegation), which you might think could be construed as an indicator of a more regular data set. Other leagues of a similar size can drop into the 30’s (e.g. Ligue 2 = promotion and relegation). But, despite this gulf between the team-make-up of the M.L.S. and Ligue 2, results in those leagues are still surprisingly consistent in themselves, if vastly different from each other.

In the M.L.S. over the five seasons 2013-17, home wins averaged 51.71%, draws 25.88%, and away wins 22.41%. The variance of each of these five seasons from the average is less than +/-4% for the home win, less than +/-6% for draws, and less than +/-4% for the away win. In Ligue 2 between 2012-17, the home win variance was just over +/-3%, less than +/-2% for draws, and less than +/-4% for the away win. Maths is not an exact science, but this is close enough.

The M.L.S. figures are probably ‘spikier’ because their league has gradually expanded in numbers during this time whilst the French has retained the consistency of its composition throughout.

Taking the French as an example, if we looked at larger and larger numbers of data, all we would see is a similar pattern to the one we already see using just the last five seasons’ figures. And besides, the relevancy of the results decays the longer back we look in time. Five is therefore enough to form a snapshot significantly accurate enough for our needs. Anything less than five is not enough in our opinion.

I hope this helps in some small way.

6. Thechump
12 November 2017 at 10:20 pm #

Hi,

I’ve been reading the website and wondered whether I have missed the reasoning for the selection of 5 season for the data sample. Having studied some leagues in the past, there is a degree of variation in consistency of results. Would the selection system cope with a 6 season analysis in one league and a 7 season analysis in another? Or would this work against the synergy that is the goal?

• Right Winger
14 November 2017 at 9:35 am #

Hello Thechump,

Five seasons’ data provide enough historical results for a ‘significant’ sample size.

Using more results is unnecessary because:

1) Accuracy is enough with five seasons and adding more only increases the workload (in collecting stats and analysing them), without adding any greater levels of statistical significance. For example, have a look at the Goal Distribution article to see how similar the distribution curves are, season upon season. It’s the law of diminishing returns as, using more and more seasons of data, brings less added benefit to the analysis.

2) The further back in time you look, the less relevant the results become to the current or forthcoming season. Turnover of teams via promotion and relegation creates more and more statistical noise, skewing results of the analysis.

In short, snapshots using five seasons’ data are enough. We don’t need more. Thanks for your question – I hope the answer is self-explanatory.

7. Scott
6 November 2017 at 11:32 am #

Your weekend sounds a lot like mine, Corner.

Halfway through Saturday, I was staring down the barrel of a weekend that was about to undo all the progress made in the previous few weeks.

By the end of Sunday it had all been recovered and I found myself 1 point up.

8. Corner
6 November 2017 at 1:14 am #

First of all thanks to all that you are posting the performance of your winter campaign.

It helped me because i was wondering if do something wrong. We all play different Systems, but the tendency is the same.

I have 17 Systems. I placed 600 bets so far and my hitrate is 30,27 %. The Forecast Hitrate is 39,69 % I am down – 46 points.

The same feeling for me like Simon on Saturday evening. I had the longest loosing streak ever of 15 games in a row. From Friday to Saturday 2 wins out of 21. On Saturday evening i was down to -61 points. I decided a last investement to bring my credit to 75 points.

On Sunday i made a profit of + 15 points. This weekend is +-0.

The last 5 weeks i lost -4 points. The 5 weeks before i lost -42 points. So i can see an improvement.

The problem are the big odds. With odds above 4,0 i have lost -54 points. With odds From 1,5 to 3,99 i have won +8 points.

I place an average of 45 bets on a weekend. When i read your posts i see the most people have around 30 bets. Maybe i have to much Systems at the moment with a tendency that is so far away from the last 5 years.

What worries me the most ?

I checked my systems in the last 5 years. In the worst year in early November there was a profit of + 130 points. I am so far away from that.

9. jo
5 November 2017 at 10:05 pm #

14 wins out of 36, 38.88% hit rate, +1224 units profit this weekend. Didn’t have a weekend like this for almost 3 months and it’s 2nd profitable weekend in a row. One of the worst performers Netherlands almost recovered in just 2 weekends. Ligue 2 won 3 bets this weekend out of 4 with 1 estimated bet tomorrow. The biggest pain at the moment remains Spain being at whopping -3052, 11 bets lost in a row and making 65% of my losses. Denmark won 3 bets out of 5 and sliced losses from -1005 to -549.

10. Rado
5 November 2017 at 7:11 pm #

I had an absolutely incredible weekend. About 10 units profit and almost all losses erased. The draws in Netherlands have really picked up as of lately. The favorites in Italy are winning. I also had 2 pretty high odd wins in Poland. Burnley’s win also brought big profits. The only systems that continue to be disastrous are the Ligue2 draws, the favorites in Switzerland and the home wins in Australia. The other 10 of my 13 systems are not so bad as of now. To sum it up, that’s a second week in a row with a respectable profit for me. I SINCERELY HOPE it’s not just a coincidence and the good hitrate continues. Right now I am sitting at 31,5% hitrate out of 38,9% projected, which is not incredibly good, but is a huge improvement over the 19% hitrate I was at 3-4 weeks ago. Now I am a little bit below zero balance from when I started 2 months ago. Given the fact I was at one time over 20 units down, that’s also an enormous improvement. Maybe there’s hope.

11. Simon
5 November 2017 at 2:50 pm #

Scott,

Yesterday was the final day of portfolio betting for me. A 15% hit rate means that the losses I recovered over the last 3 weeks are gone and further losses were incurred. My losses sit at around 40 units of my bankroll. This is after approx 500 bets – the point being, I have given this a very fair crack of the whip and been more than patient with it.

This week was game week 14 of the portfolio: after week 4 my profits were 24 units. From 24 to -40 shows a 64 unit loss in 10 weeks. That’s totally disastrous – especially as it was modeled on the risk profile of the very profitable example portfolio we were presented with.

I had in place good and profitable systems – but what can I do when for 10 weeks or more, the hit rate I see is 15%+ lower than expected. All one can do is watch their bankroll disappear slowly week by week. I put a stop loss in place, and the money is still disappearing.

All the best analysis in the world is no good if the hit rates conspire to kill your bankroll before they right themselves, and thats exactly what is happening here.

It really does seem to be a pipe dream to think we can make fortunes from this endeavour – at least thats what reality is showing me. It seems to me that it is pot luck that you pick the right systems in the first place. Systems can and will fail, and they will fail spectaularly; ligue 2, eridivisie, la liga, turkey to name a few. Like me, if you have a few of these running, they will add up and kill the bankroll.

It boils down to this for me, I spend my weekends checking odds portal, placing bets, checking results…for absolutely no reward. Add to that getting further wound up because being in losing position I’m seeing 2 goal leads being blown and losing me more money…..and its just not worth the time or effort. I could be doing plenty of other fruitful things.

I think when betting begins to impact your real life and become a chore, then its time to knock it on the head. So that’s what I’m doing. This is a complete waste of time. Which I’m surprised to be saying as before the season began I had very high hopes for this endeavour. It wasn’t to be.

Good luck to all for the rest of the season. I hope those that are currently losing get some of that back.

Thanks to Right Winger for the assistance along the way.

Take care guys.

12. Simon
4 November 2017 at 12:03 am #

Had Getafe won the game after leading by 2 goals at half time, the day for me would have been in profit. But yet again I’m down money on the first day of the game week and looking to claw back a deficit before I can make any progress towards reducing the already existing deficit.

It’s tough to take these bad bad losses when already down a considerable sum of cash. Me moaning and complaining about it won’t help matters or change results, but I really do feel like luck is just not with me at all in this campaign.

Thinking about my game weeks, since the horrendous run started in game week 5 of the campaign, almost EVERY Friday is a total disaster where I am in a hole before the bulk of the weekends games even begin. I would be very confident in saying that if I had simply not bet on Friday games I would be around break even for the campaign – that kinda tells you how bad Friday’s have been for me!

I’m looking at things now in mid November for many systems I have running that are losing badly, and they really need to start to winning NOW, as time for recovery is reducing – with the winter break being the end for these 1st half systems. I get the feeling La Liga is going to continue performing badly and end up losing me a lot of money….but I also worry that if I ditch it, it will start winning. So in a way I’m stuck with it for better or for worse.

Nevermind, I will take another bad day on the chin and plug away with the whole thing.

• Simon
4 November 2017 at 1:59 pm #

Wow, this kind of stuff really can’t be made up!

Kasimpasa leading Bursaspor 2-0 after 90 minutes. I have a bet on Kasimpasa. 2 goals for Bursaspor in injury time and I lose my bet.

Thats 3 times in a row now that has happened to me.

Seriously….I’m exceptionally close to throwing in the towel here…..

• Scott
5 November 2017 at 7:47 am #

I’ve had a similar weekend, Simon. First up, Dynamo Moscow concede in the last minute (3.75), then Getafe do the same (3.92), and then Kasimpasa (2.58).

I was dug out of a giant hole yesterday by Burnley beating Southampton (7.0), but am still down about 5 points for the weekend so far.

To be fair though, I’ve been on the beneficial end of a bunch of last minute equalisers and winners….I just tend to not remember/dwell on those as much as I do the last minute bet-busters!

Let’s just hope for better today, although looking at the day ahead I’m not sure there’s that many bets to be placed for my systems.

13. jo
3 November 2017 at 11:30 pm #

+43 today and just because I skipped 1 team that lost. 2 bets lost in the last 10 minutes today. Would’ve been a good day.

14. Simon
3 November 2017 at 10:50 pm #

Just a vent more than anything……

Another losing day for me. And to cap it off, it ends with another bet losing where the team i have the bet on is 2 goals ahead. The Spanish La liga is seriously frustrating the hell out of me. Haven’t won a bet there in a month, and the last 2 bets have lost where my team is 2 goals ahead…..I just cannot catch a break at all….

I am not kidding when I say that in my portfolio it gets in to double figures where I have suffered a losing bet when my team is ahead by 2 goals or more…add to that the lost bets due to injury time goals and I’m wondering if I’m just the unluckiest bloke alive! Frustrating thing is that I can’t even tell you when I have won a bet from a losing position….it probably has happened, but not often.

Had half the bets won where the team I was backing was 2 goals ahead, I would be in profit.
I’m one frustrated bettor at this moment!

15. Rado
31 October 2017 at 7:42 am #

I also had a good week with 8 units profit. I hope this is not just a lucky spark and the good trend continues.

16. jo
30 October 2017 at 11:04 pm #

36 bets,13 wins, 36% hit rate, +350 units final result. Had I cut failing Netherlands it would’ve been a different story since it had 2 wins out of 3 and made 820 units profit. Spain keeps failing badly, 6 bets lost this weekend, only 6 bets won out of 51.

17. Scott
30 October 2017 at 5:28 pm #

Good weekend here too. 5.33 points of profit. I’m absolutely furious to have missed a a qualifying bet in Russia this afternoon that went on to win.

That would have meant an 8 point weekend. Bah!

18. LeBo
30 October 2017 at 10:33 am #

Good Weekend…

Hope everything stabilizes from now on. I’m 7.22 point in plus with a yield of 1.5%. This campaign is an up and down…

More info on http://betlist.atwebpages.com

19. Simon
29 October 2017 at 1:24 pm #

Rado,

Good to hear this round of games has been positive for you so far.

I can’t say the same myself unfortunately – of 21 games bet, I have just 5 wins, so a hit rate just under 25%, totally unacceptable in the sense of what is required to make a profit.

The last 2 weeks were pretty good, allowing me to recover around 9 units of profit (based on my lowered stake amount). However, unless today bails me out, I stand to lose all of that and then some. So its the classic case of treading water here, a lot of effort for zero gain.

The Spanish underdog system I am running just cannot produce a winner and is absolutely my worst performing system. The turkish favourite system is also a terrible performer and is losing me money every week.

Ligue 2 has actually won the last 2 draws I placed bets on. Netherlands will be profitable this week regardless of the 1 bet on the table for that system today.

But the story is the same, there is no consistency with the hit rates. Volatility is high and that sees any recovery wiped out in the blink of an eye. Highly highly frustrating to say the least.

20. Rado
29 October 2017 at 3:40 am #

The Hannover win and the Feyenoord draw patched things up a little bit today, with me seeing the first truly “good” day in 2 months. These two matches absorbed about 1/3 of the accumulated losses so far. When I look at things, two strategies stand out as the big problem so far: The draws in Ligue 2 (2/17 won), and the home wins in Australia (0/8 won). I think that the draws in Ligue 2 have totally collapsed, with not only the league setting a new record for the lowest number of draws in a season so far, but also this low number leading to a distorting of the odds, lifting them by more than 0.10 points across all bookmakers. This has moved a huge number of matches out of our pre-determined inflection points. My opinion is that Ligue 2 should be dropped, because these odd distortions have destroyed the statistical model. It’s impossible for this system to return any profit this season. The odds are not corresponding, the number of matches to bet will be totally different, etc.

21. acepoint
27 October 2017 at 1:02 pm #

A question to Right Winger (and maybe others):

Let’s assume pre-season you identify an odds interval for draw. Let’s also assume in the past five seasons the draw rate within this interval has been more or less steadily over and also within the seasons themselves. In first third of the current season you experience an abnormal low rate of draws.

What happens to the draw odds for future matches? They will probably go up as normal bettors won’t pay for relative low odds anymore. I guess, everybody involved in the inflection point strategy will know now, which league(s) I’m talking about.

But what are people doing, who made an inflection point strategy on a certain draw interval? Can they be more liberal for a while, putting money on matches slightly above their former interval?

• Simon
27 October 2017 at 2:04 pm #

Acepoint,

I know exactly which league you are talking about….our beloved Ligue 2.

To start the season the betting opportunities were plentiful with 4 perhaps 5 bets within the systems odds ranges each week. After a few weeks of the season, the draws as a percentage of the total results took a real nosedive. The draw odds now seem in most games to be way over the upper inflection point of the system. I don’t know if this is down to the fact that teams are just winning and losing, and thus odds are adjusted to reflect that certain teams have better winning records. The knock on of that is the betting opportunities have dried up considerably. Last week there was just 1 bet within the odds range of my system, and this week there looks to be just 1 bet too. That makes it harder and harder to claw back a deficit.

The season is one third complete, and so if we assume that the number of draws may increase as the season progresses to end up somewhere nearer historical averages (not necessarily equalling or bettering them), then perhaps the number of betting opportunities will increase per round too. As of now, with 26 rounds left to play, I’m not yet ready to give up on this system.

As for expanding the upper inflection point range, I don’t know about that. It would certainly increase the betting opportunities. The first thing that occurs to me though is any given season will unfold however it does, and no two seasons will be like for like, therefore odds will be set in some degree as per public perception. So if a particular team is winning every game, they will become shorter and shorter odds as the season progresses. I guess what I’m saying is that odds setting/pricing is dynamic and will change according to more recent form and public perception. I think this dynamism will be seen within the historical stats we use in the HDAFU tables to find our systems. So to tamper with that and expand odds ranges to pull in other games, well, maybe it could backfire.

Honestly, I don’t know….what I do know is that systems in a deficit will struggle to recover where the current number of bets per week will not get us anywhere near the projected number.

• Daniel
27 October 2017 at 7:05 pm #

Same thing happened in Greece. I had a draw system with an incredible hit rate, 8 draws out of 10 matches. The odds started to go down, and the betting opportunities became fewer. So i suppose this kind of odds behavior happened in past seasons too, and so every analysis from the tables will include a similar pattern.

So my suggestion is, whatever happens, stick to your inflection points.

• Right Winger
31 October 2017 at 4:58 pm #

Hi Acepoint (& Simon & Rado),

Yes, I know exactly what you mean.

In the Winter and Summer League Campaign spreadsheets you will also find systems that for varying reasons didn’t produce the estimated number of betting opportunities.

If any result is not happening in the frequency that it was expected, then bookmakers will tend to take advantage of this by increasing prices to entice punters into this black hole.

The inflection points intervals are based on historical statistics, and the stats as a whole may even include a similar trend to the one being experienced right now.

If you have set your inflection points on five seasons’ stats, then straying outside the boundaries is not recommended. Try and be consistent. Once draws begin to happen more often the prices will stabilise once again.

If you decide mid-term to bet outside your original parameters and into an unknown odds range, the time you have spent coming up with the strategy in the first place is a little pointless.

My recommendation would be to sit tight and ride out the lack of betting opportunities. If it’s going to be an anomalous season, you’ll be protected to some extent from the chaos by sticking, not twisting.

There will probably be other leagues in your portfolio where there are more betting opportunities than anticipated. Things will balance themselves out in the long run. Have faith and stick to your game plan.

22. Daniel
25 October 2017 at 2:53 pm #

Hi Right Winger,

i have a question for you.
When, in your opinion, should be the right moment to plug off a poorly performing system from the portfolio? It is now clear that this first part of the season saw many systems underperforming, some of them became soon a disaster. I know this could be a matter of personal choice, but i would love if you could provide us a rough guide on the matter. Most of this systems continued to perform badly after most of us noticed it there was some problem with them. Cutting them before they could destroy a portfolio could really save a campaign. For what i see, when a system is doomed, is not hard to notice. Ligue 2 and Netherlands are two popular systems that falls in this category. I know that cutting a system too early could potentially prevent future profits, but as i said, the systems that were performing poorly from the very first weeks, are still performing the same way, none really catching up to what was expected.

I was thinking to use some kind of measurement. For example, capping the losses of a system to 10 units. I know some high risk systems can have longer losing streaks, but usually this systems have a limited number of games, and perhaps they can be an exception. But systems that have hundreds or so games, they can be dangerous if a very bad season happens. To keep it in a real life scenario, i don’t really see how Ligue 2 draws could recover from it’s tragedy. Cutting it weeks ago could have saved much money to many people (me included). And even if a system like this can recover in the future, i still see it a remote possibility. And honestly, i would prefer caution here, and direct my effort (and my money) on those systems who are maintaining their expectations.

So please, your thoughts on this would be really appreciated, by me and all the other users, i’m sure.

• Right Winger
31 October 2017 at 2:40 pm #

Hello Daniel,

There is no hard and fast rule about pulling a system that isn’t performing to expectations.

Personally speaking, I let everything go until the last match. Even if there is no hope of a profit in certain leagues, there is always the chance of some recovery to boost the bottom line. This chance is one that I never discard as it is important to the synergy of the campaign as a whole.

Of course, everyone is free to make decisions based on their own levels of security or adventure, and if a system is hemorraging money it is mentally easy to cut it from the roster.

But, if you are going to cut something, only do so if you have got to the stage that the number of estimated remaining betting opportunities will not provide the required respite, even if every single one of those potential bets were to win.

If you’re going to cut anything, then look more to the middle range of your systems. Cutting high risk or low risk systems will unbalance your portfolio, so always look at the effect that dropping a league will have on your overall risk profile.

Capping wins/losses is never as effective as being bold enough to bet on the nose every time.

Regarding Ligue 2, I am still sure the number of draws will pick up – even if the league does eventually record a six-season low, or a worse anomaly, there will still be draws between now and the end of the season to limit the damage to the portfolio as a whole.

Think in terms of statistics. Look at the draw percentages in the last five seasons. Look at the distribution of draws in each of those seasons. Each season has a similar number of draws but they are distributed randomly throughout the season. It’s just bad luck we’ve stumbled on the barren spell, which just so happens to be at the start of the season.

In summary, cutting the size of your portfolio reduces the synergy effect. Fewer betting opportunities generally means the rest of the portfolio has to work harder to fulfill the same expectations. Think twice before you do this.

23. Daniel
25 October 2017 at 11:17 am #

Hey Jo,

sorry to hear that. Have you thought about cutting off some of the worst performing systems? I guess if they are showing a totally different trend from what was expected, there’s no point in continuing wasting money on them. Better to focus on the best performing ones, and the ones who you still think, realistically, could put some money in your bank. Analyze them one by one and cut the rotten branches. A perfect example would be ligue 2 draws. That system is doomed. I stopped to bet several weeks ago and it is still performing very bad. Other cases of bad systems in my previous portfolio were Netherlands draw and Austria underdogs. I would have cut them after that bad run we all had, no doubt about it. I know that theoretically they could still deliver some wins and mitigate the losses. But realistically, if a system is going totally out of control, i don’t think that particular strategy it’s reliable anymore.

• jo
25 October 2017 at 8:22 pm #

Hi Daniel,

yes, I did think about it, but it’s a big mental game that haunts me like what if they perform well all of a sudden? And well performing systems enter in a bad streak for a while?
It’s probably not the case with Ligue 2 which is almost certainly doomed to fail and odds range is too low to win losses back in a winning streak of 3-4 bets. Netherlands and Spain are tougher to decide because odds I bet are lower and can recover quickly even in a case of short winning streak. If I decide to cut them off and that streak happens then it would make me absolutely mad. Again I had a case like this in my summer campaign, when I cut off obviously failed system and then it had a winning streak of 6 bets straight away. I have 4 systems that fail badly, I would like to cut them of, especially 2 of them, but thinking “what if things turn around?” makes it very hard to decide. Even if I terminate all failing leagues my bank would be at around +2500, miles away from Right Wingers success at the same time last year. It looks like really unusual year for winter leagues, because my summer campaign is doing better and better. I even managed to run 2 systems concurrently in the 2nd half season of one league, and both systems are doing well, although there is a little bit left to bet, I expect them both ending up in profit.
Returning to winter campaign I consider maybe I pushed my risk too far since I have just 2 strategies that have more than 100 bets a season, lower data sample impose higher risk. Right Winger had 8 of them with more than 100 bets. However the one with more 100 bets per season is doomed Ligue 2, the second one is Ekstraklasa, which is doing well. Although summer campaign also has just 2 strategies with more than 100 bets per season and no problem.

• Daniel
25 October 2017 at 9:05 pm #

Hey Jo,

Glad to hear your summer campaign is going well! I believe this is indeed an unusual (and unfortunate) campaign, at least so far. It was indeed a very demoralizing run for many of us, but i think things are starting to improve all around the leagues. Surely we won’t be able to replicate RW campaign this season, but we could still see decent profits at the end of it. And we still have the second half, that is a complete different game!
Like RW said, maybe this anomaly was caused by the early start of the leagues due to the World Cup. It is also worth mentioning that the introduction of the VAR technology on the Bundesliga, Serie A and Portugal Primeira Liga can affects results as well.

Good luck with your campaign, I am on the verge of stopping the paper testing and resuming betting real money.

I feel (and hope) that the storm is over

• jo
25 October 2017 at 9:18 pm #

I thought about introduction of VAR too and because it’s just the first year of it in those leagues I’m pretty sure might have decent effect to our results. Right Winger, what is your opinion about introduction of VAR and effect to our results?

• acepoint
27 October 2017 at 9:47 am #

@Jo, @Daniel I think VAR has absolutely no impact, the decisions will level out themselves.

But I wonder how long e.g. in the Belgium League teams will score the decisive goal in injury time. I remember at least five games now. 😉

• Right Winger
31 October 2017 at 2:20 pm #

Hi Jo,

VAR is just another variable, like how strong the wind is blowing, or how vociferous the crowd support is.

It’s something that cannot be accounted for in odds setting – only the final result of the matches in question count, not how the result came about.

Personally, I wouldn’t lose any sleep over it – it will not affect anything connected with our use of historical stats in formulating a potentially successful system.

24. jo
24 October 2017 at 8:08 pm #

My portfolio performed poorly again, worse than last week, “better” than disastrous weekend 3 weeks ago. 25% hit rate, 8 wins out of 32, but 7 wins won little. And I did not bet on 2 teams I decided to take out of my portfolio. Both teams lost. No signs of stability with my portfolio so far.

25. Scott
24 October 2017 at 11:39 am #

Hi there – the “choice” is prescribed by the odds range that you’ve identified as being profitable. I also employ an underdogs system in Germany, but whether or not I place a bet is determined entirely by whether the odds of the underdog at kick off fall into the identified range or not.

If it does, I place the bet. If not, I don’t. There isn’t really a choice to be made beyond that. Some weeks there might be 5 or 6 matches that qualify, other weeks only one or two, it’s driven entirely by that week’s match-ups.

There’s certainly the possibility that there are underdogs elsewhere in that week’s fixtures, outside of the HDAFU strategy, which the value calculator would identify as being value bets, but that’s really a separate issue.

I think there might be a misunderstanding here as to how the HDAFU approach works – you don’t really get a “choice” of bets. You get teams that fall within the odds range that week (in which case you place the bet) and you get teams that don’t (no bet). There’s no further refinement to be made for which the value calculator could be employed.

Hope that makes sense..?

• Audiendi
24 October 2017 at 12:24 pm #

Hey Scott,

Yes, that makes perfect sense.

Your write… ‘I think there might be a misunderstanding here as to how the HDAFU approach works – you don’t really get a “choice” of bets. You get teams that fall within the odds range that week (in which case you place the bet) and you get teams that don’t (no bet).’

I reckon I get the gist of it. What I’m saying is WHERE you have a greater number of options (which, that week, fall within the odds range) THAN the number of bets your system prescribes you place, why not use the value calculator to decide which bets to choose ?

As you say, some weeks/systems, there may be no options. The number of suitable bets may be no greater than the number of bets your system suggests you place for that week. But that won’t always be the case. And that’s where I reckon the value calculator might be useful.

But I take on board the point that Simon made that presumably it will lead to conflict.

E.g. suppose the HDAFU tables suggested that the odds offered for four matches were good to place bets on for a particular system. Then you used the value calculator to work out which two to go with and it showed that none of those possible four bets had value.

That would be bloody unhelpful!

• Daniel
25 October 2017 at 11:01 am #

Hi Audiendi,

from what i understand you are suggesting to use the Value Calculator as an additional filtering tool to cherry pick the games to bet on… spot profitable ranges with the HDAFU tables, then using the Value Calculator on the games that falls into said range to perform an individual analysis, and decide if bet or not. Is that correct? That could be a viable road to take… i mean, our goal is to spot value on the bookies pricing. Using two different tools could indeed give us a further edge. Think about fighting a battle where to win we have to make money. I imagine the HDAFU table as the heavy artillery, and the value calculator as the snipers who’s job is to clean the battlefield picking “profitable loner targets”. Did you give this strategy a shot? I would be very interested in hearing further thoughts about it. I guess i will test something myself and let you know on what i can achieve (on paper).

• Audiendi
25 October 2017 at 12:12 pm #

Hey Daniel,

You’ve summed it up perfectly. And I think the military analogy is a good one.

I’m yet to put the combination of HDAFU combined with the value calculator into practice myself. Truth be told, I haven’t started placing bets yet (or bought any HDAFU tables yet). I just try the value calculator here and there and I try to learn as much as I can about the whole thing in general.

But I follow these blogs keenly. It’s great to hear when people do well, but when there are sustained losing streaks, it’s disheartening. So I figured I might as well throw it out there to you guys.

I really do like the idea of the precise knowledge which the value calculator can provide. Imo, there’s no such thing as ‘true’ odds. While it can’t give an exact answer (and while other things such as transfers and injuries have influence), I like to hope that the value calculator can provide the most accurate ‘approximate’ odds as can be compiled.

And I think the HDAFU tables are the brightest way of devising profitable betting systems.

If the two tools can be used to inform one’s knowledge of specific value bets, that surely has to be a good thing.

Please let me know how it goes.