S T O R E – Soccerwidow https://www.soccerwidow.com Football Betting Maths, Value Betting Strategies Sat, 23 Sep 2023 17:12:17 +0000 en-GB hourly 1 1×2 Full-Time Table of Records – Value Bet Detector with H2H history https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/statistics-historical-data/1x2-full-time-table-of-records-value-betting/ https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/statistics-historical-data/1x2-full-time-table-of-records-value-betting/#comments Mon, 07 Oct 2013 18:50:07 +0000 https://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=3307 more »]]> The 1×2 Full-Time table of records is a compilation of HDA data from 417 completed Value Bet Detector spreadsheets from 24 countries around the world. (League games with H2H history).

1x2 FT Table of Records - Value Bet Detector with H2H history


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The data set represents a statistically significant number of matches.

Each tab will improve your knowledge and understanding of odds calculation. Sorting the data into probability clusters will clarify your own observations.

Using the plethora of data included in this Excel download, winning and losing streaks in different 1×2 probability groups will be evident and distinguishable.

Advanced Excel users can utilise the tables to identify bookmaker trends and false odds patterns.

The knowledge gained from our records table will support you in customising your True Odds & Value Detector.

Whichever football betting strategy you follow, deeper analysis always improves hit rates.

XLS file for download:

Size: 977.5 KB


To purchase the Value Bet Detector itself please visit THIS LINK.

Watch the explanatory video below:



Notes: Adjust the picture quality at the bottom of the screen above by clicking on the ⚙ button (to the left of the YouTube logo), then click on ‘Quality’ and choose a higher resolution as desired. Go to full screen mode by clicking on the box symbol (to the right of the YouTube logo).


Spreadsheet Table of Contents:

1. Record tab with 417 sets of data
2. Tab: HOME True odds – probability clusters
3. Tab: HOME Bookmaker odds – probability clusters
4. Tab: DRAW True odds – probability clusters
5. Tab: DRAW 25-29.99% True odds probability cluster
.   [split into country clusters]
6. Tab: DRAW Bookmaker odds – probability clusters
7. Tab: DRAW 25-29.99% Bookmaker odds probability cluster
.   [split into country clusters]
8. Tab: AWAY True odds – probability clusters
9. Tab: AWAY Bookmaker odds – probability clusters

1×2 FT Table of Records Synopsis

Please remember that the Value Bet Detector is not an automated betting tool; it is a sophisticated mathematical instrument to calculate statistical likelihoods of events occurring, and to identify whether the odds for those events hold value.

The 1×2 table of records is a supporting spreadsheet of data captured by the Value Bet Detector over a period of 18 months and is a valuable addition enabling the user to better target probability and odds clusters.

It goes without saying that the more knowledge and understanding of odds calculation you have, the more useful this ancillary spreadsheet will be.

By purchasing this product you agree to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy.

After payment you will be redirected to download your purchased product(s). You will also receive an e-mail with a confirmation of your purchase and download link from DPD (our partner for storing and delivering of digital products) as well as from PayPal (our partner for secure payment processing).

PayPal is an online payment service that is world-wide used for processing secure payments on the Internet. Paypal supports all major payment methods such as direct debit, credit cards and deposits. Should you wish another payment option then we also offer Neteller, Skrill (Moneybookers) or bank transfer.


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Correct Assignment of Football Data to Levels of Measurement https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/odds-calculation-en/correct-assignment-football-data-levels-of-measurement/ https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/odds-calculation-en/correct-assignment-football-data-levels-of-measurement/#respond Wed, 24 Apr 2013 20:21:38 +0000 http://www.fussballwitwe.com/?p=2734 more »]]> In statistics, information is collected using qualitative or quantitative data. The collected data is then organised using scales or levels in order to classify the data correctly because not every set of data is of equal value and can be analysed further.

Correct Assignment of Football Data to Levels of Measurement


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For example, whilst the total number of goals in a match can be counted easily allowing various arithmetical interpretations, the inclusion of a certain team in the league cannot be expressed as a meaningful number and may only be used for categorising the respective data set.

It is very important to be aware of the scales of measurement and to assign the correct levels as they not only express how quantitative a response is, but also to what extent meaningful computations can be applied.


Table of Contents:

1. Nominal Scale
2. Ordinal Scale
3. Interval Scale
4. Ratio Scale
5. Scaling issues of variables
6. Think Before You Calculate
7. Synopsis & Summary Table

PDF file for download:

Extent: 7 pages
Size: 122.6 KB

Think Before You Calculate

Given a list of shirt numbers of players, it is certainly possible to perform all sorts of calculations but none will provide any meaningful results. What is one shirt number divided by another one? A complete waste of your time as this data belongs to the nominal scale.

Unfortunately, it is not always as obvious which data will lead to meaningful results and which not. Therefore, when you are collecting data, think before you calculate. The level of measurement you are working with will determine what makes sense to do and what to leave well alone.

Probably the most prominent misleading data set is the order of teams in the form table. This data is ordinal scaled and exists purely to put teams in an order. However, in practice, punters pay a lot of attention to the form tables (often even just the last six results!), but unfortunately these data are pretty useless in terms of meaningful analysis and drawing conclusions for betting.

By purchasing this product you agree to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy.

After payment you will be redirected to download your purchased product(s). You will also receive an e-mail with a confirmation of your purchase and download link from DPD (our partner for storing and delivering of digital products) as well as from PayPal (our partner for secure payment processing).

PayPal is an online payment service that is world-wide used for processing secure payments on the Internet. Paypal supports all major payment methods such as direct debit, credit cards and deposits. Should you wish another payment option then we also offer Neteller, Skrill (Moneybookers) or bank transfer.

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True Odds & Value Detector: International Club Competitions (with no head-to-head history) https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/odds-calculation-en/true-odds-value-detector-international-club-competitions-with-no-head-to-head-history/ https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/odds-calculation-en/true-odds-value-detector-international-club-competitions-with-no-head-to-head-history/#comments Wed, 19 Sep 2012 05:09:03 +0000 https://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=2299 This spreadsheet contains the calculations for international club tournaments between teams with no head-to-head history, applicable for competitions such as the UEFA Champions League, Europa League, or even the South American Copa Libertadores.

True Odds Calculator & Value Bets Detector

International Club Competitions

Price: £29.90
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The instructional video below concentrates on the 1×2 odds section explaining the calculation of expected odds, and comparing them to market prices.

We also show you where to find records of the opening bookmaker odds and their changes over time, and how to interpret this information.

Later in the video we identify a method of easily identifying matches to analyse with the spreadsheet, those with possible strong discrepancies in their odds, by looking at the money matched and waiting to be matched for bets in the betting exchanges.

This is an educational video, aimed at those who wish to further understand odds calculation, and would like to know how market prices are set.


This video is about: Calculation of 1×2 (Home-Draw-Away) True Odds in UEFA Champions League games & How Market Prices are set

The examples used in the video are the UEFA Champions League matches Real Madrid vs. Manchester City, Dortmund vs. Ajax and Manchester United vs. Galatasaray.

Notes: Adjust the picture quality at the bottom of the screen above by clicking on the ⚙ button (to the left of the YouTube logo), then click on ‘Quality’ and choose a higher resolution as desired. Go to full screen mode by clicking on the box symbol (to the right of the YouTube logo).


The spreadsheet can be used to calculate the ‘true’ odds for any match of your choice for international tournaments between individual clubs. The accuracy of the calculations improves if the teams in question have a similar recent history in the tournament under analysis (for example, both team’s last 10 international club competition games have all been in the Champions League).

All you need to do is fill-in basic data:

  1. the best odds you can find for the various betting options dealt with by the spreadsheet
  2. the home team’s last 30 home game half-time and full-time scores in their domestic league and all other competitions (no friendlies)
  3. the away team’s last 30 away game half-time and full-time scores in their domestic league and all other competitions (no friendlies)
  4. the home team’s last 10 international club tournament home game half-time and full-time scores (or if not 10, as many within the last 5 years as can be gathered)
  5. the away team’s last 10 international club tournament away game half-time and full-time scores (or if not 10, as many within the last 5 years as can be gathered)

The team stats can easily be found in sites such as www.soccerway.com or www.oddsportal.com.

Use a combination of an exchange site such as www.betfair.com and www.oddschecker.com for the best odds.

For each of the following events, the expected mathematical ‘value’ is automatically flagged up together with the expected probability (statistical mean) of winning the bet:

  • Match Result (home-draw-away) at both half-time and full-time
  • Draw No Bet
  • Win to Nil
  • Clean Sheet
  • Both Teams to Score
  • Over/Under ‘X’ Goals
  • Half-time/Full-time
  • Half-time and Full-time Correct Scores
  • The full realm of Asian Handicap options including all the half and quarter point thresholds

The spreadsheet calculates ‘true’ odds (expected probabilities), and compares market prices with the statistical probability of winning the bet to show you whether there is any ‘value’ in the bet and therefore whether it is financially worthwhile undertaking.

It should be noted that the spreadsheet is not a tool for automated betting. Although the tables provide vital information to improve the accuracy of predictions, the figures do not substitute for reading salient news and applying good judgment in addition.

Required Acumen

Ideally, you should already possess a basic understanding of odds and how they are calculated. The spreadsheet is a tool to identify potential bet candidates.

However, you need to understand what is meant by the term ‘value’ and also have a good idea how to spread risk with a well-structured betting portfolio. The spreadsheet is intermediate level and you should become entirely familiar with its mechanics before committing money to any bet recommendations suggested by it.

Good Excel skills would also be an advantage.

For beginners we offer a comprehensive course: Fundamentals of Sports Betting: Betting on Over/Under ‘X’ Goals, which is a step-by-step guide including exercises and tutorials on how to understand odds calculation. Although the example used is the popular over/under ‘X’ goals market, the principles can be just as easily applied to any market of your choosing.

Full support for all of Soccerwidow’s products is always provided should you require pre- or after-sales assistance or clarification. Feel free to ask any question via the Comment section below.

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True Odds & Value Detector: League Games with H2H History https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/odds-calculation-en/true-odds-value-detector-league-games-h2h-history/ https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/odds-calculation-en/true-odds-value-detector-league-games-h2h-history/#comments Wed, 29 Aug 2012 12:35:47 +0000 http://www.fussballwitwe.com/?p=2235 In conjunction with our regular match previews published in the German Betfair blog we are pleased to present our league match with head-to-head history ‘Value’ bet detector spreadsheet.

True Odds Calculator & Value Bets Detector


League Games
with H2H History


Price: £29.90
WITH Asian Handicap

(ex VAT; see below)
Add to Cart


Price: £19.90
WITHOUT Asian Handicap

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Our bet selections are always based on true odds calculations identifying mathematical ‘value’ in the markets. Of course, not every bet can win, but ‘value’ betting is the only reliable method of ensuring long-term betting profits.

‘VALUE’ bet detector: The Excel spreadsheet calculates the ‘true’ odds (= expected probabilities based on historical statistics) and then displays each ‘value’ bet recommendation. For every event included the expected values are calculated, compared to market prices, and finally the statistical probability of winning the bet is shown.

Soccerwidow follows the philosophy that only through identifying bets containing mathematical ‘value’ in the prices offered by bookmakers or exchanges is it possible to make consistent profits.

It should be noted that the spreadsheet is not a tool for automated betting. The tables provide vital information to improve the accuracy of your own predictions, and the figures do not substitute for reading salient news and applying good judgement.

The Excel spreadsheet offered for sale comes pre-filled with data from the Premier League game Liverpool v. Manchester City on 26/8/2012. Just delete or over-type this to analyse any match of your choosing.

Read a few sample match previews which apply ‘League Games with H2H History’ calculations:


Notes: Adjust the picture quality at the bottom of the screen above by clicking on the ⚙ button (to the left of the YouTube logo), then click on ‘Quality’ and choose a higher resolution as desired. Go to full screen mode by clicking on the box symbol (to the right of the YouTube logo).

Supporting Videos

Data Sourcing: Learn where to find historical match data and download it from www.football-data.co.uk to make your own Excel store of statistics.

Data Input: Historical match results and head-to-head data input to populate the Value Bet Detector ready for input of the best odds you can find.

Frequently asked questions:

Can I use the spreadsheet in other leagues?

Yes, the calculations apply for any league in the world. The only parameters are that the game in question must be between two teams which have played at least their last 25 home or away games in the same league. The calculations are based on the home team’s last 25 home games and the away team’s last 25 away games, in the same league. Also, both teams must have played the corresponding fixture at least 6 times in the last 10 years (in other words, the home team has hosted the away team at least 6 times in all competitions (not friendlies) in the last 10 years).

How long does it take to enter historical data into the spreadsheet?

This is a manual procedure and you will quickly find which sources are best for the full-time and half-time results of both teams in the 25 matches to be analysed, plus the head-to-head encounters. We recommend Football-Data, Betexplorer, Oddsportal and Soccerway, although there are a host of other sites specialising in historical statistics.

At the start, you will find data collection will take about 30 minutes per match including entering the best bookmaker odds you can find (try Betfair and Oddschecker).

Are the formulas for the spreadsheet calculations visible?

Yes, we have hidden none of the formulas.

Exactly which historical records do I have to input?

The full-time and half-time scores for both team’s last 25 matches (home games only for the home team, away games only for the away team), plus the same for the head-to-head encounters over the last 10 years.

What knowledge is required?

You should already have a understanding of odds and how they are calculated. The spreadsheet is just a tool to identify potential bet candidates. You will need to understand what is meant by the term ‘value’ and also have a good idea how to spread risk with a well-structured betting portfolio. The spreadsheet is intermediate level, and you should be become entirely familiar with its mechanics before committing money to any bet recommendations suggested by the spreadsheet.


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