S T O R E – Soccerwidow https://www.soccerwidow.com Football Betting Maths, Value Betting Strategies Mon, 23 Dec 2019 18:29:11 +0000 en-GB hourly 1 The Power of the 7th Generation of HDAFU Tables https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/1x2-betting/the-power-of-the-7th-generation-of-the-hdafu-tables/ https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/1x2-betting/the-power-of-the-7th-generation-of-the-hdafu-tables/#comments Tue, 10 Jul 2018 11:02:52 +0000 https://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=6317 more »]]> We are happy to announce that the 7th generation of HDAFU tables are now ready for sale!

This is a substantial upgrade taking customer comments and queries into account such as the request of reducing human error when identifying systems, providing more assistance when judging the volatility of an identified system, speeding up the process of constructing a portfolio, providing a better feel of the expected losing sequences, and much more.

To give existing clients a comparison with the old table and new clients a good taste of what to expect, we have created a HDAFU Example Table:

The size of this Excel .XLSX workbook is 4.2 MB

>>> free epl hdafu table download <<<



It is a fully functional table and its only limitation is that it is an expired table (it’s a EPL 2012-17 table) and cannot be used for the forthcoming season. Of course, it can be used for backtesting its functionality against the 2017-18 season.

The test table will give you a pretty good idea of what to expect when purchasing HDAFU Tables for other leagues.

Of course, we will be populating Soccerwidow.com with updated User Guides and How To articles over the course of the next few weeks, but for those who already familiar with the filtering process, we are sure that they will very quickly pick up on the new method.

The Mightiness of the HDAFU Tables

(1) bookmaker’s business model

The bookmaker’s business model is primarily based on two factors:

Firstly, they keep a small commission on every game via overround. This is well known.

What is less known is that bookmakers when setting their odds adjust them according to the expected weight of money to be staked (= public opinion), meaning that some odds are being lowered and others are increased.

Of course, bookmakers predict (calculate) the outcomes of matches as good as they possibly can on the basis of historical statistics and whatever price adjustments (odds changes) they make are not huge and only in the region of 2 to 3% of the expected true probabilities and therefore not easy to spot.

(2) the power of the hdafu tables revealed

Due to the market expectations that the sum of the three likelihoods of home ~ draw ~ away must add up to 100% the bookmakers’ business model leads to the fact that if one side of the 1X2 bet is reduced (e.g. reducing the home win odds from ‘true’ odds of 1.65 [60.6%] to say, 1.6 [62.5%]) the other two bets in this example, the draw and away win, have to be adjusted as well (e.g. the draw odds being increased from 3.57 [28.0%] to 3.70 [27.1%] and the away odds from 8.78 [11.4%] to 9.57 [10.4%]).

Of course, another market pressure is that bookmakers tout for market share and some bookmakers will therefore offer certain bets to inflated prices (odds). To stick with the example; although the away win should be priced (according to the above ‘adjusted’ calculation) at 9.57 one bookmaker decides to offer this bet for 15.0 [6.7%]. This leads in the market to a correction of the draw odds from 3.7 to 3.24 [30.8%].

This all doesn’t mean that the true probabilities of the outcome of the match have changed. They are still 60.6% [1.65] for the home win, 28.0% [3.57] for the draw and 11.4% [8.78] for the away win but the implied probabilities now show 62.5% [1.6] for the home win, 30.8% [3.24] for the draw and 6.7% [15.0] for the away win.

Here’s where the HDAFU Inflection Point Graphs come in: They display the turning points in the odds (the previous five seasons in each league) where bookmakers habitually increase or decrease their prices.

Our HDAFU tables visualise the profit/loss curves that a bettor would have attained would he have been betting on the all the matches during a period of five seasons and with that they reveal the bookmakers best kept secret – where they ‘adjust’ their odds due to market pressures and public opinion.

With the help of the Inflection Point graphs it is very easy to visually identify the turning points and with the interactive ‘system picker’ tab to narrow down the field of view and identify profitable betting systems.

The Main Upgrades from the Previous Version

All three scenarios (whole of season, 1st half, 2nd half) are now in one file. Instead of the three HDAFU tables per league like last season you now get only one. But this doesn’t mean that you get less for your money. On the contrary, you’re getting much more!

The HDAFU Tables are in a new style Excel workbook, with everything fully automated. No more time wasted filtering and amending formulas manually, one-by-one – it’s all touch of a button stuff now.

The fully automated ‘System Picker’ tab removes the need of sorting through the data and carrying out any manual calculations. All the necessary calculations are done automatically for you and you will see the results in an instant.

In addition to inflection point graphs by odds the new tables now also provide 15 additional analyses by ‘home odds divided by away odds quotient’ (HO/AO Quotient). The relationship between the home and away odds remains very constant throughout the ante post market. This allows identification of bets and their placement at any time during the ante post market, removing the need to place bets close to kick-off. In short, there are no more time restrictions and results should be more reliable.

The price per league remains sensible at £35.00 each.

We truly hope that you are going to love the new format of the tables and we would be very interested to hear any feedback on the new style table once you’ve had a chance to look at it.

HDA Betting: Profit/Loss Simulation Tables
PRODUCT SUMMARY

  • Format: Excel .XLSX (compatible with Excel 2007 and higher)
  • File Size: between 1.72 MB and 4.55 MB each
  • Publisher: Hertis Services Ltd (formerly Soccerwidow Ltd); 6th revised edition
  • Profit/Loss Simulations within each Workbook: Inflection Point Graphs by Odds and HO/AO Quotient for Home Win, Draw, Away Win, Favourite & Underdog, plus a breakdown of individual teams’ performance in each bet type from both a home and away perspective.
  • Language: ENGLISH

By purchasing this product you agree to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy.

After payment you will get the product download link(s) delivered immediately to your inbox. For that you will receive an email from GetDPD, our digital delivery partner.

Should your download link not arrive within 10 minutes after purchasing, please check your spam folder. We do sometimes receive reports from our clients that GetDPD emails land there occasionally. You can play it safe and allow within your email program emails with the endings: digitalproductdelivery.com (GetDPD) and soccerwidow.com (us).

‘Allowing’ communications from digitalproductdelivery.com and soccerwidow.com is actually quite important because we do update and/or upgrade products from time to time and you certainly don’t want to miss the free download link we will send out to buyers.

If you have any further questions please check our Frequently Asked Questions – HDAFU Tables

>>> buy your hdafu tables <<<

Comment for the Tables in their new format

It is very much an improvement on last years format and much much easier to use. It does take out a lot of the previous manual filtering and adjustments, which is important to minimise any errors made purely from manipulating the spreadsheets.

I do like its split between both, the odds and the HO/AO quotient and looking at it and comparing to previous. It certainly gives more insights to analyse. I also really like the time profile of the profit/loss over the 5 year period as this was one area I think last year I could have improved my portfolio with smarter decisions.

Michael

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Betting Odds Converter – Fractional, Decimal, Moneyline, Hong Kong, Indonesian, and Malay https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/odds-calculation-en/betting-odds-converter-fractional-decimal-moneyline-hong-kong-indonesian-malay/ https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/odds-calculation-en/betting-odds-converter-fractional-decimal-moneyline-hong-kong-indonesian-malay/#respond Fri, 05 Jan 2018 18:48:47 +0000 https://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=3405 more »]]> Quick Odds Converter to switch odds between US, decimal, fractional, percentage, Hong Kong, Indonesian, and Malay formats – converts odds into their implied probabilities and net returns, and vice versa – converts probabilities and net returns into their corresponding odds.

Betting Odds Converter – Fractional, Decimal, Moneyline, Hong Kong, Indonesian, and Malay


Fractional, Decimal,
Moneyline, Hong Kong,
Indonesian, and Malay

Betting Odds Converter

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What does the Betting Odds Convertor do?

Automatically converts odds into their implied probabilities

Automatically switches odds between US, decimal, fractional, percentage, Hong Kong, Indonesian, and Malay formats

Automatically converts probabilities into their corresponding odds

Automatically displays the net return for each odd type

What Additional Information is included in the Spreadsheet?

Excel formulas, explanations and toggle facilities for the following conversions: –

Probabilities into Odds

Net returns into Odds

Odds into their Implied Probability

Odds into Net return

Why do I need to know how to convert betting odds
into probabilities and net returns, and vice versa?

In order to compare odds, you need to be able to convert them into implied probabilities and their net returns, because this is the foundation of all odds in the market. Only when you convert odds into their probabilities can you compare them.

Otherwise, how would you possibly know that 6/5 fractional odds, 1.2 HK odds, 2.2 decimal odds, +120 US moneyline, 1.2 Indonesian odds, or -0.83 Malay odds , all stand for a 45.45% chance of success and 120% net return?

Further reading:
Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage: Explained
Understanding Betting Odds – Moneyline, Fractional Odds, Decimal Odds, Hong Kong Odds, IN Odds, MA Odds


What is the advantage of being able to switch between different betting odds formats?

As you compare prices and look for the best odds available in the market, you limit yourself if you are only at ease with one or two types of betting odds.

For example, you may wish to find the best price for a tennis match, and if you are only comfortable with European style odds, then you probably won’t even consider checking the US market or Asian bookmakers.

However, they may have far better prices on offer; you just simply don’t know because you don’t know how to convert them into probabilities and net returns.

You will never become a winner if you buy your bet at the most conveniently available price, without searching for the best price offered by the market.

Further reading:
Football Betting Odds: Study Comparison Bookmaker vs. Exchanges Odds
Why A Pinnacle Account Is Essential


Why is it important to know the formulas behind odds calculation?

If you calculate your own probabilities and need to check them against the odds offered by bookmakers to find value bets, how on earth would you work this out if you don’t know the formulas behind the odds?

The Internet is full of advice and explanations, but unfortunately the vast majority of information is either wrong or intended to lure you into betting. It is rare to find reliable information on the implied probabilities for odds offered in the markets, or the net returns from the odds.

Furthermore, only people who understand the probabilities behind the odds on offer are able to assess the potential value of a bet.

If you are not skilled in converting betting odds into probabilities you will, without exception, lose money in the long run. Keep reminding yourself: odds stand for probabilities. Bookmakers earn money from gambling, but they do NOT gamble themselves. Neither do they rely on luck. They know how to calculate probabilities and convert them into odds and vice versa. It’s as simple as this.

Therefore, if you want to become a winner, you need to start thinking like a bookmaker, and this means that you simply have to understand probabilities and odds. There is no alternative.

Further reading:
How do Bookmakers Tick? How & Why do they Set Their Odds as they do?
Calculation of Odds: Probability and Deviation


What impact does the knowledge of implied probabilities
and odds conversion have on my betting decisions?

There are two types of gamblers: successful and unsuccessful. The majority of bettors belong to the latter.

If you lose more money than you win, maybe you are basing your betting decisions more on gut feeling than mathematics. Perhaps you place your hard-earned money on a favourite team believing they are in a ‘must win’ match, thinking that they surely cannot lose against the underdog.

You may not even be aware that bookmakers adjust their odds to public opinion, and that odds offered in the market often do not represent their true value.

If your betting decisions are more gambling than anything else, relying on luck, without understanding underlying probabilities of the odds offered, then it is not really surprising that you lose more money than you win.

True understanding and lasting success is based on knowledge, not on ignorance, beliefs, or public opinion.

Only if you develop knowledge of implied probabilities from bookmaker odds, will you be able to check them against your own calculations. Then your betting decisions will be not gambling any more but a planned investment with the goal of a structured and organised increase of your bank.

Further reading:
Heart Beats Brain – Is Accurate Forecasting of Specific Results in Football Matches Possible?
How Bookmakers’ Odds Match Public Opinion


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Sports Betting Course – Over/Under Goals – Product Specifics https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/money-management/sports-betting-course-over-under-product-specifics/ https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/money-management/sports-betting-course-over-under-product-specifics/#comments Sun, 20 Nov 2016 05:41:09 +0000 https://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=5601 more »]]> Fundamentals of Sports Betting (Betting on Over/Under ‘X’ Goals) is unlike any other book you will find elsewhere. It contains insights into how mathematics and statistics are applied to bookmaking, information that is rarely (if at all) found in the public domain.

Have you ever wondered how bookmakers set their odds? They must be pretty good at it to remain trading in a high risk industry built on small margins!

Cartoon: Blindfolded people walk precariously close to the edge of a cliffRemember folks it’s all about finding the “edge”.

Image: Cartoonresource (Shutterstock)

It is common knowledge that the gambling industry as a whole relies to a large extent on the ignorance of its customers and, only by understanding how bookmakers think and act, will you ever be able to compete with them on a level playing field.

The Most Valuable Book About Betting You Will Ever Buy!

This course is designed to give you the essential, fundamental knowledge necessary to understand odds calculation and the bookmaker market.

It deals with relatively simple descriptive statistics and teaches you how to look at data sets, calculate your own probabilities and odds, analyse the market odds on offer, and make informed decisions when predicting football results.

Amongst the topics you will work through are distributions, deviations, graphs and charts, odds calculation, financial terminologies, risk management, and of course, how to identify ‘value’ in the betting market.

You will gain a deep understanding of the many different elements required to understand the bookmaker market and odds calculation. Many false beliefs that the majority of gamblers and fans of football have about betting will be exposed and stripped away.

Readers will also be enlightened to learn about how odds are set in the market, where to find ‘errors’ in market prices, how to evaluate data and graphs, and much, much more.

What Do You Get For The Money?

The course comes in electronic format and the bundle includes the course book (PDF*) and a Bundesliga cluster table (Excel) for studying. This course employs a didactic method of teaching, which is an educational technique. It is a very structured style of learning and as such, each section of the course should be mastered before moving on to the next.

To further encourage you to learn, there is a plethora of exercises to practice what you have learned, and the solutions to the exercises are found at the end of the book, sometimes embellished with further explanations.

All of the course lessons are presented in a pragmatic, easy-to-follow, step-by-step fashion, with no more than passing respect towards the sport of football and the passion of its fans. After all, this book has been written by a lady who loves maths but dislikes football…!

In addition, you will receive the very latest Bundesliga table for the current season, so that you can put into practice what you have learned and within the course, you will find a discount code enabling you to download for free the German Bundesliga sheet in future seasons, meaning that you will always have access to the most current Bundesliga cluster table, forever: it doesn’t matter when you bought the course.

*By the way, the PDF is a professionally formatted document and if you have a double-sided printer you can print your own book for studying.

Fundamentals of Sports Betting
Course with Cluster Tables for the German Bundesliga
Over/Under ‘X’ Goals

PRODUCT SUMMARY

Fundamentals of Sports Betting - book cover
  • Format: PDF & XLS
  • Download Size: Course (PDF): 5.2 MB & Excel file: 782 KB
  • Publisher: Soccerwidow Ltd; 2nd Edition (July 2016)
  • Pages: 169 (almost 38,000 words)
  • Tables and graphs: 70
  • Example tasks: more than 80 (with solutions)
  • Language: ENGLISH

Only £59.00*

* 0% VAT to UK customers, 0% VAT to Non-EU customers     Read more: EU VAT Legislation    


>>> read an excerpt from the book <<<



PDF document professionally styled for easy reading and printing

For traditionalists, the PDF has been professionally formatted for double-sided printing. If you like, you can print your book in full-colour with a cover and add slick spiral binding.

Those who prefer to read the document on their computers will find the chosen font (Myriad Pro) easy to read on the screen. Myriad Pro has a clean sans-serif aesthetic which makes it highly accessible.

The electronic version also contains a plethora of easy-to-navigate links to help the learner find his way around the document.

Contents at a Glance

Section A: Basic Knowledge

Probability, Betting Odds, Value, Yield, Profitability

Basic Statistical Terminology

  • Goal Distribution and Percentage Calculation
  • Deviation from the Mean
  • Standard Deviation – The Main Measure of Variability
  • Precision, Trueness and Accuracy

Betting Odds Calculation

  • Probability and Betting Odds
  • Opening Betting Odds Range
  • Calculation of ‘Zero’ (Fair) Odds

Risk Management Control

  • Financial Terms: Yield, ROI and Profitability
  • Risk Forecasting and Evaluation: Value of a Trade (Bet)
  • Preventative Measures: Setting the Starting Bank

Section B: Developing a Betting Strategy

Market Dynamics, Cluster Groups and Betting Tables

Market Dynamics

  • Betting Odds are Prices of Bets
  • Falling Odds represent Price Increase
  • Bookmakers adjust Betting Odds to Public Opinions

Building of Cluster Groups

  • What are Cluster Groups?
  • Clustering Depending on ‘Strength’ of the Team

Betting Tables: Over/Under ‘X’ Goals

  • Goal Distribution by Team
  • Team Calculation Tables
  • Standard Deviation Tables
  • Using Calculation Tables to Determine Betting Odds

Finding Value Bets

  • Everything that Glitters is not Gold
  • Method I: Value Betting using Cluster Group Tables
  • Method II: Value Betting using the Value Calculator
  • Cluster Groups, Value Calculator and Bets Identification


>>> frequently asked questions <<<


…or ask any questions in the comment section below.

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1×2 Full-Time Table of Records – Value Bet Detector with H2H history https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/statistics-historical-data/1x2-full-time-table-of-records-value-betting/ https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/statistics-historical-data/1x2-full-time-table-of-records-value-betting/#comments Mon, 07 Oct 2013 18:50:07 +0000 https://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=3307 more »]]> The 1×2 Full-Time table of records is a compilation of HDA data from 417 completed Value Bet Detector spreadsheets from 24 countries around the world. (League games with H2H history).

1x2 FT Table of Records - Value Bet Detector with H2H history


Price: £12.50
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The data set represents a statistically significant number of matches.

Each tab will improve your knowledge and understanding of odds calculation. Sorting the data into probability clusters will clarify your own observations.

Using the plethora of data included in this Excel download, winning and losing streaks in different 1×2 probability groups will be evident and distinguishable.

Advanced Excel users can utilise the tables to identify bookmaker trends and false odds patterns.

The knowledge gained from our records table will support you in customising your True Odds & Value Detector.

Whichever football betting strategy you follow, deeper analysis always improves hit rates.

XLS file for download:

Size: 977.5 KB


To purchase the Value Bet Detector itself please visit THIS LINK.

Watch the explanatory video below:



Notes: Adjust the picture quality at the bottom of the screen above by clicking on the ⚙ button (to the left of the YouTube logo), then click on ‘Quality’ and choose a higher resolution as desired. Go to full screen mode by clicking on the box symbol (to the right of the YouTube logo).


Spreadsheet Table of Contents:

1. Record tab with 417 sets of data
2. Tab: HOME True odds – probability clusters
3. Tab: HOME Bookmaker odds – probability clusters
4. Tab: DRAW True odds – probability clusters
5. Tab: DRAW 25-29.99% True odds probability cluster
.   [split into country clusters]
6. Tab: DRAW Bookmaker odds – probability clusters
7. Tab: DRAW 25-29.99% Bookmaker odds probability cluster
.   [split into country clusters]
8. Tab: AWAY True odds – probability clusters
9. Tab: AWAY Bookmaker odds – probability clusters

1×2 FT Table of Records Synopsis

Please remember that the Value Bet Detector is not an automated betting tool; it is a sophisticated mathematical instrument to calculate statistical likelihoods of events occurring, and to identify whether the odds for those events hold value.

The 1×2 table of records is a supporting spreadsheet of data captured by the Value Bet Detector over a period of 18 months and is a valuable addition enabling the user to better target probability and odds clusters.

It goes without saying that the more knowledge and understanding of odds calculation you have, the more useful this ancillary spreadsheet will be.

By purchasing this product you agree to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy.

After payment you will be redirected to download your purchased product(s). You will also receive an e-mail with a confirmation of your purchase and download link from DPD (our partner for storing and delivering of digital products) as well as from PayPal (our partner for secure payment processing).

PayPal is an online payment service that is world-wide used for processing secure payments on the Internet. Paypal supports all major payment methods such as direct debit, credit cards and deposits. Should you wish another payment option then we also offer Neteller, Skrill (Moneybookers) or bank transfer.


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Correct Assignment of Football Data to Levels of Measurement https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/odds-calculation-en/correct-assignment-football-data-levels-of-measurement/ https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/odds-calculation-en/correct-assignment-football-data-levels-of-measurement/#respond Wed, 24 Apr 2013 20:21:38 +0000 http://www.fussballwitwe.com/?p=2734 more »]]> In statistics, information is collected using qualitative or quantitative data. The collected data is then organised using scales or levels in order to classify the data correctly because not every set of data is of equal value and can be analysed further.

Correct Assignment of Football Data to Levels of Measurement


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For example, whilst the total number of goals in a match can be counted easily allowing various arithmetical interpretations, the inclusion of a certain team in the league cannot be expressed as a meaningful number and may only be used for categorising the respective data set.

It is very important to be aware of the scales of measurement and to assign the correct levels as they not only express how quantitative a response is, but also to what extent meaningful computations can be applied.


Table of Contents:

1. Nominal Scale
2. Ordinal Scale
3. Interval Scale
4. Ratio Scale
5. Scaling issues of variables
6. Think Before You Calculate
7. Synopsis & Summary Table

PDF file for download:

Extent: 7 pages
Size: 122.6 KB

Think Before You Calculate

Given a list of shirt numbers of players, it is certainly possible to perform all sorts of calculations but none will provide any meaningful results. What is one shirt number divided by another one? A complete waste of your time as this data belongs to the nominal scale.

Unfortunately, it is not always as obvious which data will lead to meaningful results and which not. Therefore, when you are collecting data, think before you calculate. The level of measurement you are working with will determine what makes sense to do and what to leave well alone.

Probably the most prominent misleading data set is the order of teams in the form table. This data is ordinal scaled and exists purely to put teams in an order. However, in practice, punters pay a lot of attention to the form tables (often even just the last six results!), but unfortunately these data are pretty useless in terms of meaningful analysis and drawing conclusions for betting.

By purchasing this product you agree to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy.

After payment you will be redirected to download your purchased product(s). You will also receive an e-mail with a confirmation of your purchase and download link from DPD (our partner for storing and delivering of digital products) as well as from PayPal (our partner for secure payment processing).

PayPal is an online payment service that is world-wide used for processing secure payments on the Internet. Paypal supports all major payment methods such as direct debit, credit cards and deposits. Should you wish another payment option then we also offer Neteller, Skrill (Moneybookers) or bank transfer.

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True Odds & Value Detector: International Club Competitions (with no head-to-head history) https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/odds-calculation-en/true-odds-value-detector-international-club-competitions-with-no-head-to-head-history/ https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/odds-calculation-en/true-odds-value-detector-international-club-competitions-with-no-head-to-head-history/#comments Wed, 19 Sep 2012 05:09:03 +0000 https://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=2299 This spreadsheet contains the calculations for international club tournaments between teams with no head-to-head history, applicable for competitions such as the UEFA Champions League, Europa League, or even the South American Copa Libertadores.

True Odds Calculator & Value Bets Detector

International Club Competitions

Price: £29.90
WITH Asian Handicap

(ex VAT; see below)Add to Cart


Price: £19.90
WITHOUT Asian Handicap

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The instructional video below concentrates on the 1×2 odds section explaining the calculation of expected odds, and comparing them to market prices.

We also show you where to find records of the opening bookmaker odds and their changes over time, and how to interpret this information.

Later in the video we identify a method of easily identifying matches to analyse with the spreadsheet, those with possible strong discrepancies in their odds, by looking at the money matched and waiting to be matched for bets in the betting exchanges.

This is an educational video, aimed at those who wish to further understand odds calculation, and would like to know how market prices are set.


This video is about: Calculation of 1×2 (Home-Draw-Away) True Odds in UEFA Champions League games & How Market Prices are set

The examples used in the video are the UEFA Champions League matches Real Madrid vs. Manchester City, Dortmund vs. Ajax and Manchester United vs. Galatasaray.

Notes: Adjust the picture quality at the bottom of the screen above by clicking on the ⚙ button (to the left of the YouTube logo), then click on ‘Quality’ and choose a higher resolution as desired. Go to full screen mode by clicking on the box symbol (to the right of the YouTube logo).


The spreadsheet can be used to calculate the ‘true’ odds for any match of your choice for international tournaments between individual clubs. The accuracy of the calculations improves if the teams in question have a similar recent history in the tournament under analysis (for example, both team’s last 10 international club competition games have all been in the Champions League).

All you need to do is fill-in basic data:

  1. the best odds you can find for the various betting options dealt with by the spreadsheet
  2. the home team’s last 30 home game half-time and full-time scores in their domestic league and all other competitions (no friendlies)
  3. the away team’s last 30 away game half-time and full-time scores in their domestic league and all other competitions (no friendlies)
  4. the home team’s last 10 international club tournament home game half-time and full-time scores (or if not 10, as many within the last 5 years as can be gathered)
  5. the away team’s last 10 international club tournament away game half-time and full-time scores (or if not 10, as many within the last 5 years as can be gathered)

The team stats can easily be found in sites such as www.soccerway.com or www.oddsportal.com.

Use a combination of an exchange site such as www.betfair.com and www.oddschecker.com for the best odds.

For each of the following events, the expected mathematical ‘value’ is automatically flagged up together with the expected probability (statistical mean) of winning the bet:

  • Match Result (home-draw-away) at both half-time and full-time
  • Draw No Bet
  • Win to Nil
  • Clean Sheet
  • Both Teams to Score
  • Over/Under ‘X’ Goals
  • Half-time/Full-time
  • Half-time and Full-time Correct Scores
  • The full realm of Asian Handicap options including all the half and quarter point thresholds

The spreadsheet calculates ‘true’ odds (expected probabilities), and compares market prices with the statistical probability of winning the bet to show you whether there is any ‘value’ in the bet and therefore whether it is financially worthwhile undertaking.

It should be noted that the spreadsheet is not a tool for automated betting. Although the tables provide vital information to improve the accuracy of predictions, the figures do not substitute for reading salient news and applying good judgment in addition.

Required Acumen

Ideally, you should already possess a basic understanding of odds and how they are calculated. The spreadsheet is a tool to identify potential bet candidates.

However, you need to understand what is meant by the term ‘value’ and also have a good idea how to spread risk with a well-structured betting portfolio. The spreadsheet is intermediate level and you should become entirely familiar with its mechanics before committing money to any bet recommendations suggested by it.

Good Excel skills would also be an advantage.

For beginners we offer a comprehensive course: Fundamentals of Sports Betting: Betting on Over/Under ‘X’ Goals, which is a step-by-step guide including exercises and tutorials on how to understand odds calculation. Although the example used is the popular over/under ‘X’ goals market, the principles can be just as easily applied to any market of your choosing.

Full support for all of Soccerwidow’s products is always provided should you require pre- or after-sales assistance or clarification. Feel free to ask any question via the Comment section below.

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True Odds & Value Detector: League Games with H2H History https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/odds-calculation-en/true-odds-value-detector-league-games-h2h-history/ https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/odds-calculation-en/true-odds-value-detector-league-games-h2h-history/#comments Wed, 29 Aug 2012 12:35:47 +0000 http://www.fussballwitwe.com/?p=2235 In conjunction with our regular match previews published in the German Betfair blog we are pleased to present our league match with head-to-head history ‘Value’ bet detector spreadsheet.

True Odds Calculator & Value Bets Detector


League Games
with H2H History


Price: £29.90
WITH Asian Handicap

(ex VAT; see below)
Add to Cart


Price: £19.90
WITHOUT Asian Handicap

(ex VAT; see below)
Add to Cart

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0% VAT to Non-EU customers
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Our bet selections are always based on true odds calculations identifying mathematical ‘value’ in the markets. Of course, not every bet can win, but ‘value’ betting is the only reliable method of ensuring long-term betting profits.

‘VALUE’ bet detector: The Excel spreadsheet calculates the ‘true’ odds (= expected probabilities based on historical statistics) and then displays each ‘value’ bet recommendation. For every event included the expected values are calculated, compared to market prices, and finally the statistical probability of winning the bet is shown.

Soccerwidow follows the philosophy that only through identifying bets containing mathematical ‘value’ in the prices offered by bookmakers or exchanges is it possible to make consistent profits.

It should be noted that the spreadsheet is not a tool for automated betting. The tables provide vital information to improve the accuracy of your own predictions, and the figures do not substitute for reading salient news and applying good judgement.

The Excel spreadsheet offered for sale comes pre-filled with data from the Premier League game Liverpool v. Manchester City on 26/8/2012. Just delete or over-type this to analyse any match of your choosing.

Read a few sample match previews which apply ‘League Games with H2H History’ calculations:


Notes: Adjust the picture quality at the bottom of the screen above by clicking on the ⚙ button (to the left of the YouTube logo), then click on ‘Quality’ and choose a higher resolution as desired. Go to full screen mode by clicking on the box symbol (to the right of the YouTube logo).

Supporting Videos

Data Sourcing: Learn where to find historical match data and download it from www.football-data.co.uk to make your own Excel store of statistics.

Data Input: Historical match results and head-to-head data input to populate the Value Bet Detector ready for input of the best odds you can find.

Frequently asked questions:

Can I use the spreadsheet in other leagues?

Yes, the calculations apply for any league in the world. The only parameters are that the game in question must be between two teams which have played at least their last 25 home or away games in the same league. The calculations are based on the home team’s last 25 home games and the away team’s last 25 away games, in the same league. Also, both teams must have played the corresponding fixture at least 6 times in the last 10 years (in other words, the home team has hosted the away team at least 6 times in all competitions (not friendlies) in the last 10 years).

How long does it take to enter historical data into the spreadsheet?

This is a manual procedure and you will quickly find which sources are best for the full-time and half-time results of both teams in the 25 matches to be analysed, plus the head-to-head encounters. We recommend Football-Data, Betexplorer, Oddsportal and Soccerway, although there are a host of other sites specialising in historical statistics.

At the start, you will find data collection will take about 30 minutes per match including entering the best bookmaker odds you can find (try Betfair and Oddschecker).

Are the formulas for the spreadsheet calculations visible?

Yes, we have hidden none of the formulas.

Exactly which historical records do I have to input?

The full-time and half-time scores for both team’s last 25 matches (home games only for the home team, away games only for the away team), plus the same for the head-to-head encounters over the last 10 years.

What knowledge is required?

You should already have a understanding of odds and how they are calculated. The spreadsheet is just a tool to identify potential bet candidates. You will need to understand what is meant by the term ‘value’ and also have a good idea how to spread risk with a well-structured betting portfolio. The spreadsheet is intermediate level, and you should be become entirely familiar with its mechanics before committing money to any bet recommendations suggested by the spreadsheet.


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