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Tag Archives: sports betting

Stressed-out man being interviewed / Gestresster Mann im Interview

German Bundesliga 2012-2013: Bottom 2 Automatic Relegation Betting Statistics

In our recent article “Who’s going to win the 50th German Bundesliga title?” we analysed the Meisterschale winning chances of each team taking into consideration the previous 49 seasons’ data. We now switch attention...
Cheerful soccer fan girl devoted to Germany / Frohsinniges Fußball-Fan-Mädchen Deutschland gewidmet

Who’s Going to Win the 50th German Bundesliga Title?

With just under 3 weeks to go until the start of the “Golden Jubilee” Bundesliga season we take a look at the 18 teams in contention for the title and statistically assess their chances of winning the Meisterschale next May. Defending...
Crazy young scientist trying to break his alarm clock / Verrückter Wissenschaftler versucht, seinen Wecker zu zerschlagen

Euro 2012 Simulation – The Moment of Truth: Staking Plan Comparison

The Nutty Professors: Congratulations to those ‘mad’ scientists at the International School of Management (ISM) in Frankfurt and the German Sports University in Cologne whose predictions we followed throughout Euro 2012. Image: Pikoso.kz...
Wizard with glowing magical orb / Zauberer mit glühender magischer Kugel

Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 274 Bets, from 07/12/2011 to 30/06/2012

The end of the month has arrived once again and following 29 match analyses encompassing 67 more value bet recommendations, it is time for our usual reckoning. June was indeed an exceptional month realising a yield of 16.4%. The formulas and...
Octopus Fortune Teller with Crystal Ball / Octopus Wahrsager mit Kristallkugel

German Scientists Simulate Euro 2012

Something Fishy in Germany Again! If the prognosis of scientists from the International School of Management (ISM) in Frankfurt and the German Sport University Cologne is to be believed, then Euro 2012 will be nothing more than a re-run of the...
Wizard with glowing magical orb / Zauberer mit glühender magischer Kugel

Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 207 Bets, 07/12/2011 – 31/05/2012

The end of the month has arrived again and after 17 match analyses and 48 more value bet recommendations, it is time for our summary. May was the first month we published our value bet articles and predictions in both Betfair’s German...
Man with measure tape and golden coins / Mann mit Messband und goldenen Münzen

Impact of the ‘Overround’ on Accumulators, Multiple Bets, and Parlays

Betting odds are supposed to reflect the probability (statistical expectation) that a particular event will happen. Image: Elnur (Shutterstock) Because bookmakers are profit-making enterprises who offer bets on the market, it is understandable...
Wizard with glowing magical orb / Zauberer mit glühender magischer Kugel

Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 159 Bets, from 07/12/2011 to 30/04/2012

After five months of writing match previews and bet recommendations both in the English and German language versions of Betfair’s blog, it is time to review the results and ultimately compare them with Betfair’s own odds (i.e. predicted...
Goal full of soccer balls / Tor voller Fußbälle

Goal Distribution Comparison – EPL, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie

Judging purely from statistics, watching French league games must be rather boring as there are never many goals. Image: koya979 (Shutterstock) The Dutch, on the other hand, tend to have at least five goals in nearly 10% of their matches. From...
Handcuffed businessman with bank notes / Mit Handschellen am Rücken gefesselter Geschäftsmann mit Banknoten in den Händen

Betfair Premium Charge Part 2

Death Of The Dream: So, my case scenario revolves around the fact that you are statistically more likely to belong to the 99.5% majority of Betfair customers who have a tendency to lose more bets than you win. If so, you can rest assured that...