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Tag Archives: probabilities

Cartoon: Group looking at a whiteboard with very strange word on it / Karikatur: Gruppe vor einem Whiteboard mit einem sehr seltsamem Wort

How do Bookmakers Tick? How & Why do they Set Their Odds as they do?

Becoming a successful bettor requires not only a deep understanding of odds calculation but, it is also necessary to understand how the market works and especially how the bookmakers operate. Of course, bookmakers are in the business of setting...
Young woman pointing on a calculator

The Science of Calculating Winning and Losing Streaks

This article is a short journey to the theme ‘risk management’ as we are often asked… How high should be a starting bank? Is 5,000 units enough? Well, there is no standard answer to this question. It all depends on the individual...
Dollar notes / Geldbündel zusammengerollter Dollarscheine

How to Calculate Losing Streaks & Optimal Bankroll

In this article we will teach you to determine how large your starting bank needs to be to avoid bankruptcy by calculating the longest losing streaks that can be expected from your chosen betting strategy. What is Bankroll Management? Bankroll...
Computer mouse attached to football bearing 1X2 symbols / Computemaus befestigt an einem Fußball mit 1X2 Symbolen

1X2 Betting System – Staking the Underdog

Every year we publish HDAFU simulation tables (Home, Draw, Away, Favourites, Underdogs), which model profit & losses for five seasons in each featured league for developing profitable betting systems. Today’s article discusses the...
Higher Mathematics formulas / Höhere Mathematik Formeln

Combinatorics and Probability Theory in Football Betting

Introduction to Combinatorics and Probability Theory This article is a step-by-step guide explaining how to compute the probability that, for example, exactly 4 out of 6 picks win, or how to calculate the likelihood that at least 4 of 6 bets...
Woman holding bank notes close to her face with a calculator and bills in the background / Frau hält Banknoten an ihr Gesicht mit Taschenrechner und Rechnungen im Hintergrund

The Gambler’s Ruin Explained – Fair Coin Flipping

One of the phenomenons of probability is Gambler’s Ruin. The most common meaning is that a gambler with finite wealth, playing a fair game (that is, each bet has expected zero value to both sides) will eventually go broke against an opponent...
Percent cubes, 3D image / Prozent-Würfel, 3D-Bild

Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage: Explained

Introduction The terms probability, expectation, likelihood, chance and hit rate are all closely related, and express more or less the same thing. The difference is that before a game one talks about ‘chance’, ‘probability’,...
Man with calculator sunk into a heap of paper / Mann mit Taschenrechner versenkt in einem Papierhaufen

How to Calculate Average Odds in Football Betting

Sometimes it is necessary to figure out the average odds from a set of betting odds which can then be used as the basis for further calculations. For example, computing deviation and variance. When using odds in European format (decimal) you...
Full House Jacks and Queens

Using Poker Odds Calculators and Moving Beyond Psychology

Being a success at the poker table takes a dash of luck, a smattering of psychology and a solid understanding of statistics. Since the growth of online poker caused the average IQ of poker players to increase dramatically it has become even...
Suspended business woman clutching calculator / Hängende Businessfrau umklammert Taschenrechner

How Bookmakers’ Odds Match Public Opinion

A question we often receive from readers is why the Value Bet Detector requires 10 years’ head-to-head (H2H) data and why it is optimised to address matches where there has been a minimum of six H2H meetings in this time frame. Image:...