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Tag Archives: betting statistics

Computer mouse attached to football bearing 1X2 symbols / Computemaus befestigt an einem Fußball mit 1X2 Symbolen

1X2 Betting System – Staking the Underdog

Every year we publish HDAFU simulation tables (Home, Draw, Away, Favourites, Underdogs), which model profit & losses for five seasons in each featured league for developing profitable betting systems. Today’s article discusses the...
Lay the Draw - 5 seasons - fixed stake

Bet and Win – Avoid Placing Bets at the Start of Season

If you are not operating a football betting portfolio which is primarily aimed at diversifying risk and balancing your cash resources between different leagues, matches, and outcomes, then it is strongly advisable to hold off from any betting...
Lay Draw EPL 2008-09 to 2011-12

1×2 Betting System: Analysis of HDA Data and Strategy Development – LAY THE DRAW

Numerous Web sites and forums pay homage to the Lay The Draw strategy with prolific threads from supporters claiming to have found extremely lucrative 1×2 betting systems. Therefore, I have decided to explore lay the draw betting in detail...

Correct Assignment of Football Data to Levels of Measurement

In statistics, information is collected using qualitative or quantitative data. The collected data is then organised using scales or levels in order to classify the data correctly because not every set of data is of equal value and can be analysed...

True Odds & Value Detector: International Club Competitions (with no head-to-head history)

This spreadsheet contains the calculations for international club tournaments between teams with no head-to-head history, applicable for competitions such as the UEFA Champions League, Europa League, or even the South American Copa Libertadores. International...
Wizard with glowing magical orb / Zauberer mit glühender magischer Kugel

Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 274 Bets, from 07/12/2011 to 30/06/2012

The end of the month has arrived once again and following 29 match analyses encompassing 67 more value bet recommendations, it is time for our usual reckoning. June was indeed an exceptional month realising a yield of 16.4%. The formulas and...
Gentleman sits cross legged in a chair with eyes closed and palms raised in a summoning pose / Mann sitzt im Schneidersitz auf einem Stuhl mit geschlossenen Augen in einer Beschwörungsstellung

The Challenge of Predicting Individual Events

Why is it so awfully difficult to predict single events accurately, when the synergy of multiple events aggregated together seems far easier to guess? Many people are able to predict how things will develop in their personal lives over a period...
Wizard with glowing magical orb / Zauberer mit glühender magischer Kugel

Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 207 Bets, 07/12/2011 – 31/05/2012

The end of the month has arrived again and after 17 match analyses and 48 more value bet recommendations, it is time for our summary. May was the first month we published our value bet articles and predictions in both Betfair’s German...
Wizard with glowing magical orb / Zauberer mit glühender magischer Kugel

Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 159 Bets, from 07/12/2011 to 30/04/2012

After five months of writing match previews and bet recommendations both in the English and German language versions of Betfair’s blog, it is time to review the results and ultimately compare them with Betfair’s own odds (i.e. predicted...
Goal full of soccer balls / Tor voller Fußbälle

Goal Distribution Comparison – EPL, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie

Judging purely from statistics, watching French league games must be rather boring as there are never many goals. Image: koya979 (Shutterstock) The Dutch, on the other hand, tend to have at least five goals in nearly 10% of their matches. From...