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5 Simple Steps to Win Over and Under Betting


In the world of sports betting, most punters focus on 1×2 match results. Punters are driven to find a system for Home-Draw-Away bets, but regrettably, this bet type is actually one of the most difficult to master and to reap reliable profits from. It takes some time until bettors start to consider other markets such as Betting on Over Under Goals.

To teach you how to make reliable profits with Betting on Over Under we have written a Fundamentals of Sportsbetting course which is accompanied by Cluster Tables.

This article explains some of the mechanics behind the Cluster Tables.

Punters are driven to find a 1x2 system but Over Under betting is much easier

To demonstrate how the cluster tables work and that their use enables you to easily pick a successful portfolio of Over/Under bets for any weekend, we are going to analyse a random EPL weekend with the matches played between 12/5/2017 and 16/5/2017.

For detailed calculations and explanations we are going to be looking at the Tottenham vs. Man United match, played on 14/05/2017.

After reading this article you may wish to give it a try and use some of the ‘free bets’ offers from a bookmaker of your choice.


5 Simple Steps Guide on How to Win Over and Under Betting

  1. Calculate the HO/AO Quotient
  2. Pick the Correct Row in the Cluster Tables for the Match
  3. Calculate the Probability for all Over/ Under Goals Bets and Covert Them into ‘Fair’ Odds
  4. Compare your Calculated Fair Odds with the Market Odds & Identify the Value Bets
  5. Decide whether To Lay or To Back

The Cluster Tables have been developed to allow you to quickly calculate the true probabilities/odds for a match that you wish to bet on and then compare the true odds with the actual market prices. To find ‘value’ in the market you need to find the pricing ‘errors’; the bets which are overpriced and the bets which are underpriced.

The truth of the matter is that these are not really ‘errors’, but rather a result of the bookmakers making use of public opinion to maximise their profits. They reduce the prices of bets if the demand is high, and vice versa.

You too can account for ‘public opinion’ as a correction factor when calculating the true odds. This is done via the HO/AO quotient which is explained further down in this article.

Another important detail that you may notice when reading this article and using the Cluster Tables is that we don’t use any goal counts (or ‘form’ considerations, or news) from the current season.

We are going to analyse a round of matches from May 2017, but will be applying the Cluster Table encompassing the seasons 2011-12 to 2015-16 .

The example is purposely set late in the season to demonstrate that for true betting success you don’t need to worry about ‘current form’, ‘suspensions’, ‘weather’.

Have fun, enjoy & win!

(1) Calculate the HO/AO Quotient

This step is very simple.

Find the match – Tottenham vs. Man United (14/05/2017) – and using any odds comparison site look up the odds for the 1×2 bets.

The evening before the match, the home win (Tottenham) was priced at 1.85, and the away win (Manchester Utd) at 5.50.

For the HO/AO quotient you then simply divide the home odds (HO) by the away odds (AO).

1.85 divided by 5.5 = 0.336

For those who like odds closer to the game, the highest bookmaker odds just before kick off were: Tottenham: 1.7 and Manchester Utd: 6.3.

1.7 divided by 6.3 = 0.269

We need this quotient for the next step, but first we will take a look at what this quotient actually means.

In the next step you will also see that both HO/AO quotients – 0.336 and 0.269 – fall in the same cluster group. This will actually (almost) always be the case as the clusters span quite a wide range of corresponding odds. Therefore, it really does not matter WHEN you carry out the calculations!

Bookmakers seldom price their odds to represent the true probabilities. They set odds that follow the public opinion.

We are making use of this public perception as a ‘correction factor’ when trying to find value bets.

This is where the HO/AO quotient comes in handy as a very simple solution. It is possible to find the 1×2 odds for any match played in the past and to calculate their HO/AO quotients.

With the help of the HO/AO quotients it is then possible to cluster matches into groups which represent the ‘perceived’ strength of teams at the time of the match.

For example, a match perceived by the public as being between two equally strong teams at the time of the match will have a quotient between 0.9 and 1.1 (home/away odds, both, in the region 2.5 to 3.0), while strong home favourites may have quotients of 0.04 or 0.05 and so on.

Just tinker around with that, until you get the idea.

Here’s a video to show you the EPL Cluster Table in action.

Now we are going to looks at some of the calculation from the video in more detail…

(2) Pick the Correct Row in the Cluster Tables for the Match

After having calculated the HO/AO quotient we are only one step away from picking the Value Bet(s) for this match.

For the sake of the shortness of this article and to keep it sweet and simple, we are only looking at the Over/Under 2.5 Goals bets.

In the match between Tottenham vs. Man United match, played on 14/05/2017, the Over/Under odds for this match were very close: The bet on Over 2.5 goals was priced at 2.00, and the Under 2.5 bet was priced at 1.98.

Which one of the two was the value bet? What should we have picked without listening to our gut feelings?

Remember, the HO/AO quotient was:

The evening before the match: 1.85 divided by 5.5 = 0.336
The closing odds before kick-off: 1.7 divided by 6.3 = 0.269

Here are the screenshots for the distributions for both team (I marked in orange the cell you have to look up the probabilities to calculate the game in the next step).

Tottenham at Home - Distribution

Manchester Utd at Home - Distribution

In the above screenshots, the goal distribution of Tottenham playing at home and Manchester United playing away can be seen.

Please note that, for Tottenham we had to pick the second to last row to be in the correct cluster group whilst for Manchester United it was the last row. This is something, that when you start using the Cluster Tables, you will have to be very careful about – to always pick the correct row which corresponds to the calculated HO/AO quotient.

(3) Calculate the Probability of Over/ Under Goals and Convert Them into ‘Fair’ Odds

With the above two tables we can now calculate the probabilities for this particular match.

The calculation is as follows:

Tottenham Home: 56.5% plus Manchester Utd Away: 54.4% = 110.9%
110.9% divided by 2 = 55.45% (rounded: 55.4%)

Expected ‘Fair’ Odds: 1 divided by 55.4% = 1.81


Just as a side note, we are calculating with European odds through this website. If you don’t know how to convert probabilities into odds and vice versa, here’s the formula:

Probability into European odds

If you need to calculate with odds other than European, here’s the article on the topic:
Understanding Betting Odds – Moneyline, Fractional Odds, Decimal Odds, Hong Kong Odds, IN Odds, MA Odds


Next Steps:
(4) Compare your Calculated Fair Odds with the Market Odds & Identify the Value Bets
(5) Decide Whether To Lay or To Back

Wish to play around with the Cluster Table?
Try the EPL Cluster Table for Only £2


Last Update: 9 August 2017

Categories:Case Studies Odds Calculation Value Betting Academy



8 Responses to “5 Simple Steps to Win Over and Under Betting”

  1. Scott
    17 July 2017 at 11:20 am #

    Out of interest, is the odds clusters approach preferred to using the value bet calculator? Is one approach considered more accurate than the other by yourselves?

    Thanks.

    • Soccerwidow
      17 July 2017 at 8:53 pm #

      Hi Scott,

      The OU Odds Clusters are more a tool for systematic betting as they allow you to analyse many games in a very short period of time to produce a diversified portfolio of bets.

      The VC calculates ‘Value’ for many bet types, not only Over/Under bets, but requires more time to be filled in. Furthermore, the VC shows ‘value I’ and ‘value II’ – these are indicators for the profitability of a bet and the expected Yield.

      Sorry, but I cannot go in any deeper explanation. The topic is too complex and required a whole course. There are both approaches explained in great detail.

  2. Miloslav
    8 August 2017 at 9:46 pm #

    Hi,
    Is there any way how to calculate over/under odds for 2 goals if I know lines for over/under 1.5 goals and lines for over/under 2.5 goals?
    Example:
    Total Odds
    Over 1.5 1.25
    Over 2.5 1.8
    Under 1.5 4.6
    Under 2.5 2.2
    Over 2 ???
    Under 2 ???

  3. Jamie
    12 August 2017 at 4:25 pm #

    Hi, bought the o/u course and have the bundesliga tables for 2012-17 but the password for the GD by Team sheet on the legal tab doesn’t seem to work.

    Could you let me know what the real password is?

    Thanks

    • Soccerwidow
      13 August 2017 at 6:49 am #

      Hi Jamie, I’ve just sent out an update email. Please check your emails and download the spreadsheet again. The password was wrong. Sorry for your troubles!

  4. Matt
    15 August 2017 at 11:25 am #

    Hi there, interesting stuff – just tried it myself on some of the data I had for the premier league; looks promising. One question though, why are the odds ranges different for the away side than at home?
    Intrestingly, around the point you made on the timing of analysing the data; when I looked @ Arsenal v Liverpool (both home and away), the ranges seemed pretty consistent for the last few years, so the point at which you review the odds available, seems to make little difference as you suggest.

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