Euro 2012: Czech Republic v Portugal – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Tips

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option. For this match we used a modified version of the spreadsheet for international tournament games with little or no head-to-head history.

Gambling without emotion and with ‘value’ on your side is the only way to approach betting for profit. The Soccerwidow spreadsheet combines historical statistics with current betting odds to determine whether a bet carries value, and also shows the percentage likelihood of winning the bet.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 20th June, 2012…

Banking on a Blank Czech:

The Czechs have 17 clean sheets in their last 30 competitive matches abroad (56.7%), and they owe a lot to their inspirational goalkeeper, Petr Čech, for this statistic. On the contrary, only six teams have shutout the Czech Republic in these games. The Portuguese can only count 11 shutouts in their equivalent last 30 games abroad (36.7%), whilst eight teams have prevented them from scoring.

The Czechs have won 16 (53.3%), drawn six (20%), and lost only eight (26.7%) of their 30 matches, whilst Portugal have won only 14 (46.7%), drawn eight (26.7%), and lost eight (26.7%).

Over their last 30 competitive matches abroad, the Czechs have scored 49 and conceded 27, whilst the Portuguese have scored 47 and conceded 27. The half-time record reads Czech Republic scored 22 conceded seven, and Portugal scored 18 and conceded 15.

In terms of these performance and goal records, the Czechs have a better recent history so, why are Portugal heavy favourites for this game? Answer: perhaps the people’s perception of one Cristiano Ronaldo, and nothing at all to do with statistics…

Salient statistics for the bet recommendations:

Czech Republic’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 12.10.2005):

• Full-time Over 1.5 Goals: 23 times (76.7%)
• Full-time Correct Scores: Losing 1-0 (none); Drawing 1-1 (1 = 3.3%); Drawing 2-2 (2 = 6.7%)
• Last 6 Full-time Correct Scores (most recent first): 0-1 (win); 1-2 (win); 4-1 (loss); 0-1 (win); 1-4 (win); 2-2 (draw)

Czech Republic’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 12.10.2005):

• Full-time Over 1.5 Goals: 7 times (100%)
• Full-time Correct Scores: Losing 1-0 (none); Drawing 1-1 (none); Drawing 2-2 (none)
• Last 6 Full-time Correct Scores (most recent first): 1-2 (win); 4-1 (loss); 3-2 (loss); 3-1 (loss); 2-0 (loss); 2-0 (loss)

Portugal’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 8.7.2006):

• Full-time Over 1.5 Goals: 21 times (70%)
• Full-time Correct Scores: Winning 1-0 (2 = 6.7%); Drawing 1-1 (4 = 13.3%); Drawing 2-2 (none)
• Last 6 Full-time Correct Scores (most recent first): 1-2 (win); 2-3 (win); 1-0 (loss); 0-0 (draw); 2-1 (loss); 0-4 (win)

Portugal’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 8.7.2006):

• Full-time Over 1.5 Goals: 6 times (60%)
• Full-time Correct Scores: Winning 1-0 (none); Drawing 1-1 (none); Drawing 2-2 (none)
• Last 6 Full-time Correct Scores (most recent first): 1-2 (win); 2-3 (win); 1-0 (loss); 1-0 (loss); 0-0 (draw); 0-7 (win)

Identified Value Bets:

• Value Betting Tip 1: There is good value (61.3%) laying the draw at full-time at odds of 3.72, and the calculated success probability for this event is 83.3%. The draw should be more realistically priced at 6.0.

Bet WON

• Value Betting Tip 2: Another interesting bet is backing over 1.5 goals at half-time, which carries value of 31% at the current odds of 3.2, albeit with just a 41% chance of success.

Bet LOST

• Value Betting Tip 3: Back Full-time Over 1.5 Goals (Odds: 1.42; Zero or ‘true’ back odds: 1.36; Value: 14.48%; Probability 76.7%).

Bet LOST

• Value Betting Tip 4: “Dutch” Lay Full-time Correct Scores: Czech Republic 0-1 Portugal; 1-1, 2-2 (weighted stakes for equal risk/return). Combined Lay Odds: 3.26; Zero or ‘true’ back odds: 13.33; Value 408.6%; Probability: 92.5%.

Bet LOST

MATCH RESULT:
FT – Czech Republic 0-1 Portugal
HT – Czech Republic 0-0 Portugal


We understand that not all bets will win. Our strategy therefore revolves around the principle of ‘value’ betting (mathematical advantage based on statistical probability) – read the detailed review of our Betting Prediction Results: Dec 2011 – Jun 2012.

• Forward to next match analysis: 22nd June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Germany v Greece
• Back to previous match analysis: 19th June 2012 – Euro 2012 – Sweden v France