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Football Betting Odds Calculation Course – How to Calculate Odds – Over / Under ‘X’ Goals


Please note that this is an archived post. Here, we describe the 1st edition of our Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Course. We decided not to remove this post from the site because of the many questions and answers in the comments section. For those of you with curious minds it may also be quite interesting to see how this product has developed over the years.

Here’s the link to the product specifics of the 2nd edition: Fundamentals of Sports Betting



Soccerwidow’s Over Under Betting Course takes the bettor through probabilities, odds, value, profit and loss calculation, and explains these technical terms in easy language.

There are plenty of exercises to help hone your skills, and you will also learn to download historical data and analyse it using calculation software such as Excel.

The course explains in detail how to evaluate teams and compile your own ‘true’ odds for the Over Under betting market which can then be compared to the market prices.

You will be taught the process of calculating value, clustering data, understanding probabilities, and computing potential profit and loss from anticipated bets.

This book is essential reading for anyone looking to understand odds calculation and take their betting to another level.

Over Under Football Betting Course – How to Calculate Odds, Identify Value Bets and Develop a Successful Betting Strategy


Why do I need to know how to calculate odds?

Enthusiasm for sports betting is good and fine, but there is much more needed to actually become a winner.

The majority of bettors use their hearts, gut feelings, and hunches to place their bets. They then perhaps do a little research and despite getting the best odds available in the markets, and using various bookmaker accounts, they wonder why they lose more than they win in the long run.

The answer is simple; to make a regular profit and keep on winning not only requires a disciplined approach but also a thorough understanding of odds calculation.

Further reading:
Psychology of Gambling and the Importance of a Staking Plan
Value Betting versus Gut Feeling


What knowledge is required to understand this course?

This is a beginner’s course, and aiming at people with little odds calculation knowledge and basic Excel skills.

The course is written on a level which does not require higher maths than O-levels. Still, the course may be quite difficult for those who have always found maths a challenge. Just take your time, read each chapter several times, solve all the exercises before moving on to the next section, and try to understand everything. Ultimately, you will be rewarded with knowledge.

To ensure proper understanding, the course contains no shortcuts. All calculations need to be done manually. There are plenty of exercises to guide the learning process and the aim is that once you master the course, you should be able to develop your own betting system which should hopefully turn you into a winner.

All formulas are given and explained either in the chapter of each exercise, or at the end which contains the solutions to all of the exercises.

You are welcome to ask specific questions via the comment functions in any article on the Soccerwidow website; we usually reply within a few hours and are more than happy to help.

Further reading:
Heart Beats Brain – Is Accurate Forecasting of Specific Results in Football Matches Possible?
Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage: Explained


Are the principles and analysis techniques in this course
transferrable to other football leagues?

Absolutely – although the course uses the German Bundesliga as its example to outline principles and techniques to analyse a league’s goal distribution, the methodology is equally applicable to any world football league and indeed, relevant to all other professional sports.

Furthermore, the Odds Calculation Course uses the Over Under Goals market as its theme and the approaches demonstrated are timeless, using fundamental statistical principles for practical football betting applications. They are also usable for odds calculation in other betting markets (e.g. both teams to score, clean sheets, etc.).

Anything with historical data available and which is countable can be statistically analysed. Once the distributions are known, forecasts and projections for the future are possible.

Further reading:
Goal Distribution Comparison – EPL, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie
How Bookmakers’ Odds Match Public Opinion


Contents of the Odds Calculation Course:

Section A: Basic Knowledge

Probabilities, Odds, Value, Profit and Loss Calculation:

1. Calculation of Expected Market Prices

  • Goals in the German Bundesliga
  • Exercises in calculating percentages
  • Expected odds for the Bundesliga
  • Exercises in calculating probability and odds

2. Evaluation of Individual Teams

  • Exercises in interpreting graphs
  • Computing the ‘zero’ (fair/ true) odds
  • How is ‘value’ calculated?
  • Exercises in calculating probabilities, odds, value, profit and loss

Section B: Cluster Groups and Betting Tables

Developing a Betting Strategy:

3. Building Cluster Groups

  • What are cluster groups?
  • Cluster grouping according to the relative strength of opposing teams
  • Exercises in cluster group building

4. Betting Tables: Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Market

  • How to read and understand the betting tables
  • Exercises in calculating and forecasting market odds
  • Finding potential value bets in the betting tables
  • Exercises with cluster groups and identifying bets



Football Betting Odds Calculation Course
How to Calculate Odds – Over / Under ‘X’ Goals
PRODUCT SUMMARY (1st EDITION)

E-book - The Soccerwidow Odds Calculation Course
  • Format: PDF
  • Download Size: 1.29 MB
  • Publisher: Soccerwidow Ltd; 1st edition (February 2012)
  • Pages: 69
  • Example Tables: 44
  • Practise Exercises and Questions: Over 40 (Answers provided)
  • Language: ENGLISH


Sorry, but the first edition is not offered for sale anymore. It helped many, many people see gambling in a different light. It was praised as presenting facts in an unemotional manner, stripping away the myths and false beliefs hampering the majority of punters.

But there is a new, revised version of the course packing an extra 100 pages of invaluable information: Fundamentals of Sports Betting

The book has undergone a transformation to become a complete guide to betting for long-term profit, including everything customers of the first edition asked, either by commenting here on this page (see below), or by contacting us directly by email.

Customer Comment
My advice would be to purchase Soccerwidow’s ‘How to calculate Odds’ workbook.
It’s extremely comprehensive and anything I didn’t understand I googled, and googled again,
and still google. It will probably be a few months before I understand it fully
but as I bet on both soccer & Australian Rules Football I found it invaluable.
I can’t wait for your next article.
Mark


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Last Update: 21 November 2014



84 Responses to “Football Betting Odds Calculation Course – How to Calculate Odds – Over / Under ‘X’ Goals”

  1. James
    30 November 2016 at 1:20 pm #

    Exercise 1.2 Part E is not clear at all how you arrive at your results and your answer to people asking for help is to spend another £40 to get an explanation. Well no thanks it should have been written properly in the first place.

    • Soccerwidow
      1 December 2016 at 9:24 am #

      No need to spend another £40 to get the explanation for exercise 1.2 (E) in the old course. Sorry for this challenge, you are not the first, but I am sure that you will master this exercise!

      I have addressed this question (and many more) in the updated version (2nd edition) of the course in great length. This new course is probably twice as long if not even longer, than the first edition.

      Anyway, should you decide that you don’t want to purchase the second edition, I have emailed to you the spreadsheet which contains all calculations to come up with the charts used in the course you purchased. Hopefully, this will help you to get to the correct answer in 1.2. (E).

      Best wishes,
      Soccerwidow

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