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Football Betting Odds Calculation Course – How to Calculate Odds – Over / Under ‘X’ Goals


Please note that this is an archived post. Here, we describe the 1st edition of our Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Course. We decided not to remove this post from the site because of the many questions and answers in the comments section. For those of you with curious minds it may also be quite interesting to see how this product has developed over the years.

Here’s the link to the product specifics of the 2nd edition: Fundamentals of Sports Betting



Soccerwidow’s Over Under Betting Course takes the bettor through probabilities, odds, value, profit and loss calculation, and explains these technical terms in easy language.

There are plenty of exercises to help hone your skills, and you will also learn to download historical data and analyse it using calculation software such as Excel.

The course explains in detail how to evaluate teams and compile your own ‘true’ odds for the Over Under betting market which can then be compared to the market prices.

You will be taught the process of calculating value, clustering data, understanding probabilities, and computing potential profit and loss from anticipated bets.

This book is essential reading for anyone looking to understand odds calculation and take their betting to another level.

Over Under Football Betting Course – How to Calculate Odds, Identify Value Bets and Develop a Successful Betting Strategy


Why do I need to know how to calculate odds?

Enthusiasm for sports betting is good and fine, but there is much more needed to actually become a winner.

The majority of bettors use their hearts, gut feelings, and hunches to place their bets. They then perhaps do a little research and despite getting the best odds available in the markets, and using various bookmaker accounts, they wonder why they lose more than they win in the long run.

The answer is simple; to make a regular profit and keep on winning not only requires a disciplined approach but also a thorough understanding of odds calculation.

Further reading:
Psychology of Gambling and the Importance of a Staking Plan
Value Betting versus Gut Feeling


What knowledge is required to understand this course?

This is a beginner’s course, and aiming at people with little odds calculation knowledge and basic Excel skills.

The course is written on a level which does not require higher maths than O-levels. Still, the course may be quite difficult for those who have always found maths a challenge. Just take your time, read each chapter several times, solve all the exercises before moving on to the next section, and try to understand everything. Ultimately, you will be rewarded with knowledge.

To ensure proper understanding, the course contains no shortcuts. All calculations need to be done manually. There are plenty of exercises to guide the learning process and the aim is that once you master the course, you should be able to develop your own betting system which should hopefully turn you into a winner.

All formulas are given and explained either in the chapter of each exercise, or at the end which contains the solutions to all of the exercises.

You are welcome to ask specific questions via the comment functions in any article on the Soccerwidow website; we usually reply within a few hours and are more than happy to help.

Further reading:
Heart Beats Brain – Is Accurate Forecasting of Specific Results in Football Matches Possible?
Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage: Explained


Are the principles and analysis techniques in this course
transferrable to other football leagues?

Absolutely – although the course uses the German Bundesliga as its example to outline principles and techniques to analyse a league’s goal distribution, the methodology is equally applicable to any world football league and indeed, relevant to all other professional sports.

Furthermore, the Odds Calculation Course uses the Over Under Goals market as its theme and the approaches demonstrated are timeless, using fundamental statistical principles for practical football betting applications. They are also usable for odds calculation in other betting markets (e.g. both teams to score, clean sheets, etc.).

Anything with historical data available and which is countable can be statistically analysed. Once the distributions are known, forecasts and projections for the future are possible.

Further reading:
Goal Distribution Comparison – EPL, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie
How Bookmakers’ Odds Match Public Opinion


Contents of the Odds Calculation Course:

Section A: Basic Knowledge

Probabilities, Odds, Value, Profit and Loss Calculation:

1. Calculation of Expected Market Prices

  • Goals in the German Bundesliga
  • Exercises in calculating percentages
  • Expected odds for the Bundesliga
  • Exercises in calculating probability and odds

2. Evaluation of Individual Teams

  • Exercises in interpreting graphs
  • Computing the ‘zero’ (fair/ true) odds
  • How is ‘value’ calculated?
  • Exercises in calculating probabilities, odds, value, profit and loss

Section B: Cluster Groups and Betting Tables

Developing a Betting Strategy:

3. Building Cluster Groups

  • What are cluster groups?
  • Cluster grouping according to the relative strength of opposing teams
  • Exercises in cluster group building

4. Betting Tables: Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Market

  • How to read and understand the betting tables
  • Exercises in calculating and forecasting market odds
  • Finding potential value bets in the betting tables
  • Exercises with cluster groups and identifying bets


Football Betting Odds Calculation Course
How to Calculate Odds – Over / Under ‘X’ Goals
PRODUCT SUMMARY (1st EDITION)

E-book - The Soccerwidow Odds Calculation Course
  • Format: PDF
  • Download Size: 1.29 MB
  • Publisher: Hertis Services Ltd; 1st edition (February 2012)
  • Pages: 69
  • Example Tables: 44
  • Practise Exercises and Questions: Over 40 (Answers provided)
  • Language: ENGLISH


Sorry, but the first edition is not offered for sale anymore. It helped many, many people see gambling in a different light. It was praised as presenting facts in an unemotional manner, stripping away the myths and false beliefs hampering the majority of punters.

But there is a new, revised version of the course packing an extra 100 pages of invaluable information: Fundamentals of Sports Betting

The book has undergone a transformation to become a complete guide to betting for long-term profit, including everything customers of the first edition asked, either by commenting here on this page (see below), or by contacting us directly by email.

Customer Comment
My advice would be to purchase Soccerwidow’s ‘How to calculate Odds’ workbook.
It’s extremely comprehensive and anything I didn’t understand I googled, and googled again,
and still google. It will probably be a few months before I understand it fully
but as I bet on both soccer & Australian Rules Football I found it invaluable.
I can’t wait for your next article.
Mark


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Last Update: 21 November 2014



84 Responses to “Football Betting Odds Calculation Course – How to Calculate Odds – Over / Under ‘X’ Goals”

  1. James
    30 November 2016 at 1:20 pm #

    Exercise 1.2 Part E is not clear at all how you arrive at your results and your answer to people asking for help is to spend another £40 to get an explanation. Well no thanks it should have been written properly in the first place.

    • Soccerwidow
      1 December 2016 at 9:24 am #

      No need to spend another £40 to get the explanation for exercise 1.2 (E) in the old course. Sorry for this challenge, you are not the first, but I am sure that you will master this exercise!

      I have addressed this question (and many more) in the updated version (2nd edition) of the course in great length. This new course is probably twice as long if not even longer, than the first edition.

      Anyway, should you decide that you don’t want to purchase the second edition, I have emailed to you the spreadsheet which contains all calculations to come up with the charts used in the course you purchased. Hopefully, this will help you to get to the correct answer in 1.2. (E).

      Best wishes,
      Soccerwidow

  2. Teck Chuan Lee
    16 July 2016 at 7:18 am #

    Hello Soccerwidow. Would like to purchase the 2nd edition. Please guide me how

    • Soccerwidow
      16 July 2016 at 7:37 am #

      Hi Teck Chuan,

      Thank you for your interest in the upgrade of the course.

      The email with the discount code for existing buyers has not yet gone out. The course has only been ready for publishing two days ago. Sorry! However, I’m going to email you the code so that you can use it straight away.

  3. Lee
    12 July 2016 at 10:40 pm #

    Hi, when is the new course going to be published?

    Also can the odds be calculated for over 1.5 and over 2.5 using this course. And will the course help in anyway taking value in play?

    Does the course provide access to data to calculate odds?
    Thanks
    Lee

    • Soccerwidow
      15 July 2016 at 12:03 pm #

      Hi Lee, the completely revised edition of the course has finally been published: Fundamentals of Sports Betting
      To answer your question, yes the odds for over 1.5 and over 2.5 can be calculated using this course. In regards of taking value in play the course will also be helpful as you can apply the knowledge of calculating probabilities to both, half time and full time goal market. Then you can chose, for example, the matches with a high probability to score during the first half. These matches you can back, say O 2.5 goals before kick-off, and lay them as soon as the first goal has been scored. I’m going to address this in more detail in an article to follow.

  4. Teck Chuan Lee
    10 July 2016 at 1:16 am #

    Questions regarding clustering.

    The odds you used to get Home/Away quotient is opening odds of bookmakers or the odds after adjusting to market buy and sell?

    I get different results of cluster selections most of the time, switching from opening odds to current odds.

    Thanks

    • Soccerwidow
      10 July 2016 at 8:02 am #

      The course uses football-data.co.uk data. The odds are taken on Friday evenings before the weekend games, and on Monday evenings for the week days. My approach is to have plenty of time to do all the calculations and make decisions, and totally remove the need to sit in front of the computer just before a game starts. There are families and lots of other nice things to do than to spend the time in front of a computer on a Saturday or Sunday.

      Anyway, if you wish to use opening odds then you would have to adjust the tables accordingly. However, even if the clusters move slightly, it shouldn’t be too much of a movement because odds don’t change so much that they effect the HO/AO quotient massively. To play it safe for moving odds you can always use 2 adjoining clusters when calculating odds.

  5. Teck Chuan Lee
    7 July 2016 at 7:56 am #

    Hi there I have just purchased Over under odds calculation PDF.
    I need help. Ive read a lot of your writing, and practicing over 100 bets with value 1 & value 2 in mind.

    However I still cannot make profits. My losses are way too difficult to cover back with my winnings because most of the time the odds I’m betting are low. Winnings are still too little to cover the losses of full amount. Im still wondering how to cover back the losses.

    The data I’m using is from soccerway. Home and away 25 matches, and H2H 6 to 25 matches.

    My staking plan is fixed risk fixed win at 28 units.

    I have lost quite a big number of bets from 1×2 market and Total goal market.

    Have I missed something important in my odds calculation?

    • Soccerwidow
      7 July 2016 at 8:35 am #

      Hi Teck Chuan,

      There is a completely upgraded version of the course just in the process of being published.

      The questions you are asking are all addressed in the new version. Please be patient for a few more days, when the new course will be available to the public.

    • Soccerwidow
      7 July 2016 at 8:43 am #

      The 1×2 market is far trickier than the goal market.

      If you are new to betting, we strongly recommend to specialise on the goal market before moving on to more complex markets. Also concentrate your efforts on one league only first (ideally a league you’re not supporting to remove any bias you may have), and then later extend to more leagues. Paper exercise for a time before committing any money.

      Successful betting takes a very long time. You need to understand everything first before you actually have a chance to succeed. It’s like in any other serious business. One cannot just go ahead and set up a business and then expect the business to return money immediately. With setting up a business, the advantage is that you’re at least not losing all your investments if you have reasoning errors. With betting, your stakes are gone faster than is comfortable. Therefore… Paper exercise! As long as it takes.

      • Teck Chuan Lee
        7 July 2016 at 9:10 am #

        Thank you. Do I have to buy the upgraded version? I have just bought this Over Under PDF

        • Soccerwidow
          8 July 2016 at 1:09 pm #

          Hi Teck Chuan,

          The upgraded version is going to be more expensive than the one you just bought, but as soon as we publish the second edition we will send out an email to all buyers of the first edition. They will receive a discount for the upgraded edition which will not only reimburse you the £49 you paid for the current course but even discount a little bit more from the new price. Nothing to worry there.

          Best wishes,
          Soccerwidow

  6. Teck Chuan Lee
    7 July 2016 at 7:48 am #

    Hello there.

    If Im understanding correctly here, there are 4 ways to get Total Goal True odds and value

    1. Home and Away 25 matches average + H2H matches average

    2. 5 seasons of league total goal general stats, true odds.

    3. According to your pdf total goal over/under, 5 seasons of league match history, averaging home team and away team, no H2H data included. Minimum of 85 matches Home Away

    4. Clustering with of 1×2 odds groups.

    Please advice. What kind of odds is suitable for different kind of situations. With your experience? Which of these yield better?

  7. Flavien
    30 April 2016 at 2:06 pm #

    Hello SoccerWidow,

    Are the principles learned inside this book also applyable to horse race?

    Thanks

    • Soccerwidow
      2 May 2016 at 10:01 am #

      Hi Flavien,

      Statistics are statistics, they are applicable to everything that can be counted. Question is: Do you have enough data which can be analysed for horse racing?

      The course will teach you how to analyse data. Which data you then analyse and apply your knowledge to, is up to you. So, in principle, yes.

      • Flavien
        3 May 2016 at 9:30 am #

        Thanks a lot, I just purchased your E-book today, and I’m enjoying it so much.

        You’re so great!!!

  8. Right Winger
    21 March 2016 at 9:32 pm #

    Hello Nicholas,

    I think the best thing to do is buy the course – it’s all explained in detail!

  9. Akakpo Nicholas
    21 March 2016 at 9:19 pm #

    Can u please help with question 4.1 how to read and understand betting tables

  10. Charles
    12 February 2016 at 10:45 pm #

    Hi!

    I’m trying to understand the calculations of Excercise 1.2 E, but I’m stuck.

    Could you send me the underlying spreadsheet?

  11. Right Winger
    6 January 2016 at 4:45 pm #

    Hi Panagiotis,

    No, nothing wrong with the strategy but four bets is too small to make any assumptions about the validity of your approach.

    Firstly, we always use the last five complete seasons’ data for any analysis. This may or may not make a significant impact on your selection criteria.

    Secondly, winning and losing bets do not always line up in a uniform manner. Our recent article about winning and losing streaks may help you understand better.

    Thanks for your contribution.

  12. Panagiotis
    4 January 2016 at 9:31 pm #

    I have created an excel sheet in which i have the percentage of every team of over/under for the last 4 seasons (home-away-overall) to premier league. Also i have and the mean goals per match(home-away-overall) for every team. From this sheet i have calculated the trendline for under2,5 goals and the trendline for over2,5 goals. As input to trendline i put the home average goals per match for home and away average goals for away team dividing by 2 in order to have the average goal per match for this match. So i calculate the under 2,5 from the under 2,5 trendline which i have in the excel sheet. The results i have until now are disapointing, 4/4 lost bets. i bet only value odds. Do you find my strategy wrong? What can i do to improve my strategy. Sorry for my english.
    Sincerely, Panagiotis

  13. Conor
    28 December 2015 at 12:34 pm #

    Hi Soccerwidow,

    Thanks for the great guide, I’m learning a lot 🙂

    Like Marc above I’m having trouble with Exercise 1.2, Part E. Specifically the part where you have to calculate the average of the percentages for over/under x goals.
    I would greatly appreciate it if you could show me how to calculate the average of percentages.

    Many thanks.

    • Right Winger
      6 January 2016 at 4:50 pm #

      Hello Conor,

      Thanks for your input. Before we send you a little something to help you out, try first on your own. If you already know the percentages then it really is a question of adding them all together and then dividing by the total number of figures. If I have misunderstood your question, then by all means come back to me.

      All the best.

  14. Marc
    15 February 2015 at 10:00 pm #

    Hi Soccerwidow,
    As a couple of your previous posts I too am having some difficulty with exercise 1.2 part E could you please advise on how to work this out.
    Thanks in advance

    • Soccerwidow
      16 February 2015 at 1:44 pm #

      Hi Marc, I just emailed to you a spreadsheet which contains all calculations to come up with the charts used in the course. Hopefully, this will help you to get to the correct answer in 1.2.(E). Don’t worry, you are not the first to get a headache with the formulas for relative and absolute deviation, and certainly not the last. However, I am sure that you will master it! 🙂

  15. Giovanni
    31 August 2014 at 11:47 am #

    Hello SoccerWidow, do you have any source where I can find odds for over/under x goals for the bundesliga 1 2013/2014. I am working on an essay and I need these odds in order to apply my betting strategy and see if it works.
    Thanks in advance

    • Soccerwidow
      2 September 2014 at 2:46 pm #

      Hi Giovanni, check out the Link Directory. We list there all reliable Internet sources known to us.

      Unfortunately, you will only find odds for OU 2.5 goals for download from various sources. If you need to get other OU odds then it will be manual work to fetch them from the archives from odds comparison sites.

  16. Roger
    22 August 2014 at 10:46 am #

    Hi !
    I have purchased your Over /Under course and HDA table, both are great products and offer great insight. However, I have some questions I would like to ask:
    1. When calculating odds for Over/Under, in your opinion is the average stats of the teams’ last 5 years’ performance better, or using the teams’ last 25 games better as a predictor of Over/Unders?
    2. In the latter part of your over/under course, you mention that using BH/BA clusters as a method of predicting O/U results. Is there anywhere I can obtain these cluster tables of different leagues, or would I have to make them myself?
    3. Lastly, should streaks be considered into part of the equation? For example , if team A has been going Over 2.5 for 9/10 last games, should this be included? Or should we just look at the whole picture, i.e. last 5 years’ performance?

    Thank you so much for your help , I really appreciate it!

    • Soccerwidow
      23 August 2014 at 10:06 am #

      Hi Roger,

      (1) In the OU course I explain odds calculation in general and also introduce the concept of clustering. For building groups a good amount of data is necessary, and therefore I use 5-seasons of data. Otherwise distributions are harder to recognise.

      The Value Bet Detector is a tool for calculating the probabilities for a single match. In it I use only the last 25 games, but the H2H of the last 10-years as a correction factor. The calculator is only applicable for a subset of matches (with at least six H2H meetings at the same ground in the last 10 calendar years) whilst the course addresses a much larger data set and much larger group of potential matches for analysis.

      (2) Regarding cluster tables, the course teaches how to do them yourself without relying on us to publish more tables. However, as you are not the first, and we have been asked many times if we can provide tables for different leagues, the good new is that I have finally addressed this issue and just few days ago finished a template. Within the next week cluster tables for major leagues will be put up for sale.

      (3) Streaks happen… for example, the average height of the German male population is 178 cm. However, there is a good chance that you may see 10 men in the street, one after the other, who are all less than the average height. In other words, streaks have no relevance on the real distribution.

      Hope this helps and thanks for your question.

  17. Ian
    18 June 2014 at 12:35 pm #

    Hello Soccerwidow,

    I’ve just purchased your Over/Under course and your Value Bet detector. They are both excellent products and they bring together all the knowledge that I have accumulated over a few decades.

    Unfortunately, it has taken me this long to figure out the simple fact that value bets + staking plan = steady profits 😉

  18. menime
    6 June 2014 at 8:14 am #

    Hi in exercises 1.2 part E. Your calculation of absolute deviation for under 0.5 goals equal to 24% I can’t understand how you calculate it. I have result 26.13% for this

    • Soccerwidow
      6 June 2014 at 4:31 pm #

      Hi menime,

      I just emailed to you the underlying spreadsheet for the course which contains the graph you are referring to. There you’ll find the calculation for under 0.5 goals.

      Hope this helps.

      Kind regards,
      Soccerwidow

  19. peter
    31 May 2014 at 11:04 am #

    Hi !

    Purchased both over/under course and league with head to head history about a year ago. Made my own tables with the over under course, getting quartileodds for example matchodds, halftime odds and so on. Now to my question, wich one of them makes the best result according to you over/under or league with head to head history ?

    • Soccerwidow
      1 June 2014 at 3:55 pm #

      For value betting, statistical outliers are often the most interesting candidates. Patterns are also easier to spot, for example the Over 1.5 Goals market.

  20. Menime
    31 May 2014 at 5:21 am #

    Hi! I want to buy your course but I have problem with paypal.. Can you send me information for paying via moneybrookers and price equivalence on usd?

    • Soccerwidow
      31 May 2014 at 5:34 am #

      Hi Menime, thank you for your interest in our course.

      Our payment options can be found here: Payment Options
      They include Skrill (Moneybookers), and the payment address is: admin[at]soccerwidow[dot]com (Please replace the [at] with @ & [dot] with . – we need to do this safety measure when publishing on the website, otherwise there are too many bots reading and then spamming our email address)

      Today’s exchange rate calculates US$82.14 equivalent to £49. However, should you (or other clients) purchase any other days, then please follow the link to Google, and it gives you the amount of the day.

      We look forward to your custom, and thanks again for your interest. 🙂

  21. Lauri
    7 May 2014 at 1:04 pm #

    I lost the course and value detector sheets because my computer broke down and 1,5 years later, Soccerwidow still has data that I bought them so I sent her a mail and within 1 hour she already responded and sent me new spreadsheet and course.

    Thanks so much for this, Soccerwidow. It shows you truly care about your followers 🙂

  22. Peter
    13 October 2013 at 10:03 am #

    i am looking at hockey right now, and see that with 5 years data every team have played around 130-148 matches depending on leagues. And dividing them into quartiles it means that each quartile going to have 32-37 games. Should i make 5 quartiles to get even better result, with football each quartile have around18-23 matches and thats where its going to be if i divide hockey into 5 quartiles instead of 4 or is it good with more games.

    • Soccerwidow
      13 October 2013 at 1:04 pm #

      Hi Peter,

      you’ll need to see which cluster size will return the more accurate results.

  23. Glenn
    4 October 2013 at 7:08 am #

    Hi Soccerwidow,

    Thanks for the reply, will look at Staking Plans, but must admit I have never heard of them.

  24. Glenn
    2 October 2013 at 8:46 pm #

    Hi Soccerwidow,

    Many thanks for the reply. To be honest, I have to admit to arrogance with my earlier post, borne out of frustration , of course. I humbly apologise.

    I hold a philosophical view when it comes to making bets. The ‘ordinary’ better considers from a perspective of discernment. In other words, without recourse to mathematical computational skill, and using only historical result data, a better discerns the ‘form’ of one team against that of another, and draws a perspective of ‘likelihood’ of the result of the match he/she is going to place a bet on.

    Team form is everything. Regardless of the sport, knowing form is the most important element in betting. Now, historical data holds no influence or consequence to current form, it really doesn’t. The historical data of prior seasons cannot influence current season’s form factors…because the variables may have changed, and generally have.

    For instance, look at Man United’s (English Premier League) current form factor against last season. Using the team’s historical data from last season would have lost many bets, because doing so would have thrown up false positives. Man United’s dip in form is more than likely due to change of management and management skills…Moyes is no Ferguson. The variables for continuance of ‘good form’ have been disrupted.

    This coming Saturday’s game between Sunderland hosting Man United provides, according to my own data spreadsheet, Man United having a small edge of ‘away’ form factor (3) against Sunderland’s ‘home’ form factor of (0). I expect Man United to win as they have a ‘score probability’ of 23.9% against Sunderland’s -14%. Sunderland do not have a form factor or score probability to create a draw…they will lose against Man United.

    However, if Man United were away to Man City, I would expect City to win because their home form factor is (9), and their score probability is currently 50.8%, which means they should beat Everton this coming Saturday, because Everton’s ‘away form factor is only (5), and their score probability is only 4.7%. If all 4 teams play to form, these will be the results, but form is affected and influenced by many variables, even on the day, and even as the game is played, so a bet using form as a determinant is placed hoping that certain variables do not come into play to affect the expected outcome.

    Thanks for the links, will take a look.

    Best wishes

    • Soccerwidow
      3 October 2013 at 10:17 am #

      Hi Glenn,

      if you really are having an 80% hit rate then the only thing you need is the application of a rigid and strict staking plan. Here are two articles on this topic:

      Psychology of Gambling and the Importance of a Staking Plan
      Choosing the Right Staking Plan

      With a hit rate of 80% you certainly don’t need permutations or accumulators to generate a steady income. A fixed staking plan will do this job quite nicely and level out the risk of losing.

      Accumulators reduce your chances of making any profit as it only needs one bet to go wrong to lose the whole lot. Here is an article on combinatorics to help you calculate your chances of success with permutations:

      Combinatorics and Probability Theory in Football Betting

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