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Football Betting Odds Calculation Course – How to Calculate Odds – Over / Under ‘X’ Goals


Please note that this is an archived post. Here, we describe the 1st edition of our Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Course. We decided not to remove this post from the site because of the many questions and answers in the comments section. For those of you with curious minds it may also be quite interesting to see how this product has developed over the years.

Here’s the link to the product specifics of the 2nd edition: Fundamentals of Sports Betting



Soccerwidow’s Over Under Betting Course takes the bettor through probabilities, odds, value, profit and loss calculation, and explains these technical terms in easy language.

There are plenty of exercises to help hone your skills, and you will also learn to download historical data and analyse it using calculation software such as Excel.

The course explains in detail how to evaluate teams and compile your own ‘true’ odds for the Over Under betting market which can then be compared to the market prices.

You will be taught the process of calculating value, clustering data, understanding probabilities, and computing potential profit and loss from anticipated bets.

This book is essential reading for anyone looking to understand odds calculation and take their betting to another level.

Over Under Football Betting Course – How to Calculate Odds, Identify Value Bets and Develop a Successful Betting Strategy


Why do I need to know how to calculate odds?

Enthusiasm for sports betting is good and fine, but there is much more needed to actually become a winner.

The majority of bettors use their hearts, gut feelings, and hunches to place their bets. They then perhaps do a little research and despite getting the best odds available in the markets, and using various bookmaker accounts, they wonder why they lose more than they win in the long run.

The answer is simple; to make a regular profit and keep on winning not only requires a disciplined approach but also a thorough understanding of odds calculation.

Further reading:
Psychology of Gambling and the Importance of a Staking Plan
Value Betting versus Gut Feeling


What knowledge is required to understand this course?

This is a beginner’s course, and aiming at people with little odds calculation knowledge and basic Excel skills.

The course is written on a level which does not require higher maths than O-levels. Still, the course may be quite difficult for those who have always found maths a challenge. Just take your time, read each chapter several times, solve all the exercises before moving on to the next section, and try to understand everything. Ultimately, you will be rewarded with knowledge.

To ensure proper understanding, the course contains no shortcuts. All calculations need to be done manually. There are plenty of exercises to guide the learning process and the aim is that once you master the course, you should be able to develop your own betting system which should hopefully turn you into a winner.

All formulas are given and explained either in the chapter of each exercise, or at the end which contains the solutions to all of the exercises.

You are welcome to ask specific questions via the comment functions in any article on the Soccerwidow website; we usually reply within a few hours and are more than happy to help.

Further reading:
Heart Beats Brain – Is Accurate Forecasting of Specific Results in Football Matches Possible?
Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage: Explained


Are the principles and analysis techniques in this course
transferrable to other football leagues?

Absolutely – although the course uses the German Bundesliga as its example to outline principles and techniques to analyse a league’s goal distribution, the methodology is equally applicable to any world football league and indeed, relevant to all other professional sports.

Furthermore, the Odds Calculation Course uses the Over Under Goals market as its theme and the approaches demonstrated are timeless, using fundamental statistical principles for practical football betting applications. They are also usable for odds calculation in other betting markets (e.g. both teams to score, clean sheets, etc.).

Anything with historical data available and which is countable can be statistically analysed. Once the distributions are known, forecasts and projections for the future are possible.

Further reading:
Goal Distribution Comparison – EPL, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie
How Bookmakers’ Odds Match Public Opinion


Contents of the Odds Calculation Course:

Section A: Basic Knowledge

Probabilities, Odds, Value, Profit and Loss Calculation:

1. Calculation of Expected Market Prices

  • Goals in the German Bundesliga
  • Exercises in calculating percentages
  • Expected odds for the Bundesliga
  • Exercises in calculating probability and odds

2. Evaluation of Individual Teams

  • Exercises in interpreting graphs
  • Computing the ‘zero’ (fair/ true) odds
  • How is ‘value’ calculated?
  • Exercises in calculating probabilities, odds, value, profit and loss

Section B: Cluster Groups and Betting Tables

Developing a Betting Strategy:

3. Building Cluster Groups

  • What are cluster groups?
  • Cluster grouping according to the relative strength of opposing teams
  • Exercises in cluster group building

4. Betting Tables: Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Market

  • How to read and understand the betting tables
  • Exercises in calculating and forecasting market odds
  • Finding potential value bets in the betting tables
  • Exercises with cluster groups and identifying bets


Football Betting Odds Calculation Course
How to Calculate Odds – Over / Under ‘X’ Goals
PRODUCT SUMMARY (1st EDITION)

E-book - The Soccerwidow Odds Calculation Course
  • Format: PDF
  • Download Size: 1.29 MB
  • Publisher: Soccerwidow Ltd; 1st edition (February 2012)
  • Pages: 69
  • Example Tables: 44
  • Practise Exercises and Questions: Over 40 (Answers provided)
  • Language: ENGLISH


Sorry, but the first edition is not offered for sale anymore. It helped many, many people see gambling in a different light. It was praised as presenting facts in an unemotional manner, stripping away the myths and false beliefs hampering the majority of punters.

But there is a new, revised version of the course packing an extra 100 pages of invaluable information: Fundamentals of Sports Betting

The book has undergone a transformation to become a complete guide to betting for long-term profit, including everything customers of the first edition asked, either by commenting here on this page (see below), or by contacting us directly by email.

Customer Comment
My advice would be to purchase Soccerwidow’s ‘How to calculate Odds’ workbook.
It’s extremely comprehensive and anything I didn’t understand I googled, and googled again,
and still google. It will probably be a few months before I understand it fully
but as I bet on both soccer & Australian Rules Football I found it invaluable.
I can’t wait for your next article.
Mark


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Last Update: 21 November 2014



84 Responses to “Football Betting Odds Calculation Course – How to Calculate Odds – Over / Under ‘X’ Goals”

  1. gustav
    28 February 2012 at 3:24 pm #

    In the betting business, in order to win somebody must lose.

    Would you consider the moral side of betting, or is it just a numbers game? (for you)

  2. Soccerwidow
    28 February 2012 at 4:07 pm #

    The moral side is a fair question… unfortunately, I don’t have an answer to it.

    However, this blog is intended to help the many people who do bet to stop losing and become winners. It may also happen that my articles and courses achieve that some people reduce or stop betting because they will understand how difficult it is to win in the long run. This is fine with me as it will help people save money and free their time for family and friends.

    • james better
      28 February 2012 at 8:00 pm #

      Buying a book for 49 euro would probably do you know good, as long as you insert emotions when making the selections. More so when you invest a lot of emotion into a match and you lose, picking a selection the next day would be difficult only if you a stronger believer in a system you developed.

      • Soccerwidow's Bloke
        28 February 2012 at 8:38 pm #

        Hi James,
        The course is designed to take the emotion out of betting knowing that following the basic principles and rules in it will produce a long-term profit. It is impossible to win every bet placed, and the course highlights that one must bet on the principle of VALUE alone in connection with probabilities, for this is the only route to gambling success. One must also have a proper staking plan in place to maximise wins and minimise losses.

  3. Tony
    1 April 2012 at 12:54 am #

    hi….are the principles and analysis techniques in this course transferable to other european football leagues?…..

  4. 2 April 2012 at 9:24 am #

    Hi Tony,
    Absolutely – the principles and techniques are transferable to any world football league and also to many other bet types offered by the bookmakers or betting exchanges…

  5. Reeave
    15 May 2012 at 5:57 pm #

    Hi, for this strategy to work, do we need to ‘lay’ or ‘bet’? Or we need to do both?

    I’m asking because my country does not allow betting on foreign bookmakers or betting exchanges and hence, we are not able to ‘lay’ bets. It’s a legal thing.

    However, we can place (buy) bets on only ‘over’ or ‘under’ with our local bookmakers.

    Will there be any issue with it?

    Oh, and that would be very low odds such as 1.6 – 1.90 for both over and under, say typical 2.5 goals.

    Please advise. Thank you.

    • Reeave
      15 May 2012 at 5:58 pm #

      with such low odds, I believe it will erode the profits.

  6. Soccerwidow's Bloke
    16 May 2012 at 12:35 pm #

    Hi Reeave,

    Because betting exchanges like Betfair and Betdaq allow you to ‘back’ or ‘lay’ under or over 2.5 goals for example, then you do not need to worry about the lay bets if your country is restricted. Simply back bet on over or under 2.5 goals.

    This will have no affect on your ability to find ‘value’ bets and it shouldn’t matter what the odds are so long as you can calculate whether they contain any value. Low odds mean higher probabilities, so you should find more of these bets being correct. All you then need is a large portfolio of such bets per betting round to spread the risk and a proper staking plan as described in our article:

    http://soccerwidow.com/2012/05/betfair-match-previews-april-2012/

    You may also find our article on Goal Distribution a help in deciding which leagues to focus on with bets of this nature:

    http://soccerwidow.com/2012/05/goal-distribution/

    But don’t let the title of our betting course fool you into thinking it is just about over and under ‘X’ goals. You can apply the principles to any betting market with equal effectiveness.

    We hope this is of some assistance and thanks for your interest in Soccerwidow.

    Best regards.

  7. Greg
    30 May 2012 at 6:27 pm #

    Hi Soccer Widow and Soccer Widow’s Bloke,

    I recently ordered your, “Value Betting Course”. How long does it take to receive the material? I have come across many betting sites on the web but yours is extremely refreshing!

    • Soccerwidow
      30 May 2012 at 7:08 pm #

      Hi Greg, thanks for your purchase. Please check your Spam folder; sometimes our automated emails disappear there. If you can’t find it please email to admin[at]soccerwidow[dot]com, and we will email the course to you as an attachment. Good luck!

  8. Greg
    30 May 2012 at 7:44 pm #

    Hi Soccerwidow,

    BINGO! I located the course in my spam folder. Thank you!

    Greg

  9. farhad
    20 July 2012 at 8:28 pm #

    very usefull info and article in your site !
    i also work like you for finding modeling system ! and i have my own modeling systems !
    i want know what is your software for get statics and calculation ! you must have a software for tracking records and find furmula system ! do you programmed for yourself or use public software !

    • Soccerwidow
      20 July 2012 at 8:36 pm #

      I program myself, including exhaustive use of Excel.

      However, we do not do live betting which gives us plenty of time before kick-off for calculations.

  10. Hongyi
    4 September 2012 at 1:40 pm #

    How much do you earn based on your theory?
    Do you have any statistics for your betting history?
    Your idea seems quite interesting, but I like to
    see how it works in real life.

    Thank You.

  11. lorenzo
    11 November 2012 at 6:42 am #

    Hey!

    Great site, Soccerwidow!

    I’m not hoping to get rich from betting and i’m no math or excel genius etc. But I still bought your course just to learn that side of betting more.

    Now, already having trouble in the beginning of the course. Just wondering in the practice 1 where i have to download data and replicate table 1.

    Is the only way counting the number of total goal events for every season doing it manually? Or is there some kind of catch you can make it easier for yourself.

  12. lorenzo
    11 November 2012 at 7:54 am #

    Also, if I don’t know how to calculate some answers in the exercises, how should I find the formulas to get the right answer?

    • Soccerwidow
      11 November 2012 at 2:07 pm #

      You’ll find the data for download: football-data.co.uk

      This is a beginner’s course, and aiming at people with little odds calculation knowledge and basic Excel skills. I have tried to write it on a level which does not require higher maths than O-levels. Still, the course may be quite hard for those who have always found maths quite a challenge at school. Just take your time, read each chapter several times, solve all the exercises, try to understand everything. You will be rewarded with knowledge.

      To keep it simple, the course contains no shortcuts. All calculations need to be done manually. Once you master the course, and understand everything you will certainly develop a system to make it easier for yourself.

      All formulas are given either in the course in the chapter of the exercise, or on the end with the solutions of the exercises.

      You are welcome to ask specific questions here, if you need help.

  13. Stu
    19 November 2012 at 9:28 am #

    Hi,

    Great blog you have. Stumblet up on it the other day. Lots of great stuff here.

    I have a question. As a rockie, where do you recomend me to start? I want to buy one or more of your courses in order to attain more knowlegde about betting.

    Please e-mail me for further communication 🙂

    • Soccerwidow
      19 November 2012 at 2:15 pm #

      Hi Stu,

      This betting course here is certainly a good start for newbies. However, we also have loads of free articles on the blog, so you may just simply dive in a little and read through them.

      Regarding your request for email communication, please kindly ask all your questions via the comment functions in the articles. We normally reply within a few hours. If you subscribe to the respective post, then our replies will be also emailed to you.

  14. Stu
    19 November 2012 at 6:42 pm #

    Do I interpret it right that I should recreate the spreadsheet showing in task # 1?
    In that case I’m going to have to buy me a excel courses as well.

  15. Stu
    19 November 2012 at 6:58 pm #

    Maybe I was a little fast on the trigger. Turns out that I´m not that bad in excel.

    • Soccerwidow
      19 November 2012 at 7:13 pm #

      😀

  16. Antonio
    3 December 2012 at 3:53 am #

    I have,um,disagreed with some of the things that have been written by soccer widow(and her man!) on this site so,to redress the balance,this seems to be a very worthwhile course which I may well have to purchase myself!!

    Funnily enough I have a friend who loves to bet on overs markets-not 2.5 goals,4.5 and,in the right circumstances,6.5 goals and he drives me NUTS by winning very high r.o.i.s doing such bets.

    What I don’t understand about his success is the fact that highly-respected Kevin Pullein as well as the author of a popular soccer betting book(i.e. someone else) say that since most people bet on overs what value there is in such markets will usually lie in the unders.

    To what extent would you say this is true?

    I must say,I don’t know anyone who bets unders!!!!

    • Soccerwidow
      3 December 2012 at 8:15 am #

      Hi Antonio,

      you can find value in all kind of markets, but the highest value is found with the outliers. These are in the over/under market the under 6.5 goal bets, and in some circumstances the over 1.5

      The course explains, why.

  17. Carsten
    3 January 2013 at 3:19 pm #

    Hi,

    Let me begin by expressing my great interest in your work. Keep it up!

    I am very interested in buying this product. However, there seems to be a problem with PayPal right now, and I am unable to pay using my credit card. Unfortunately, I need the book very quickly (in fact it is my intention to go through the complete course before the end of the weekend).

    Is it possible to make a fast payment without using PayPal so that I can get access to the material quickly – even if the problems with PayPal persist?

    • Soccerwidow
      3 January 2013 at 5:23 pm #

      Hi Carsten, we also accept payments via Moneybookers or Neteller. I emailed the details to you. Sorry for the problems you are experiencing.

  18. gari
    7 February 2013 at 6:55 pm #

    Hi,

    May know which page i can get more solid explanations about clustering?

  19. Gari
    8 February 2013 at 4:00 am #

    Hi,

    Can you pls explain the details for clustering?

    1st :
    Hoffenheim vs dortmund
    lbh 4.5
    lbd 3.75
    lba 1.72

    This overround is 2.616% or 2.616*100= 2616%?

    How do you categorize Row I , II , III, IV in yr excel? for different teams?

    • Soccerwidow
      8 February 2013 at 8:23 am #

      1. Calculation overround

      1/4.5+1/3.75+1/1.72 = 1.070284 –> Overround: 7.0284% (1.070284 minus 1)

      Please also see following article: How is Overround Calculated and what are the Benefits of Removing it from the Betting Odds?

      2. Clustering

      Clustering is grouping a set of data in such a way that data in the same group (called cluster) are more similar (in some sense or another) to each other than to those in other groups (clusters).

      More info: Cluster analysis (Wikipedia)

      There are different approaches (algorithms) to cluster data. In the course, we sort the data of each team in 4 similar large groups (clusters). However, what often causes confusion is that, because each team is of different strength, the clusters for each team are different. Hope this helps.

  20. J Li
    17 February 2013 at 12:23 am #

    Hi I bought the course for over/under but I’m stucked at Exercise 1.2 Part E where the answer says bets on under 0.5 goals have 3.5 times more risk than bets on under 1.5 and how did you calculate the result 24% and 6.78%.
    I’m sorry but my maths is not my strong point but I want to go through this course thoroughly.

    • Soccerwidow
      17 February 2013 at 6:32 am #

      Hi J Li, I emailed to you a spreadsheet containing all calculations to come up with the charts used in the course. Hopefully, this will help you to get to the correct answer in 1.2. (E).

  21. A. Charles
    8 April 2013 at 11:10 am #

    I’m not looking into the profits, rather how the betting is calculated. Will this book guarantee that i be able to calculate odds for any given match?

    • Soccerwidow
      8 April 2013 at 11:58 am #

      Yes, this course will teach you how to calculate over/under odds for any given match.

  22. pete
    30 May 2013 at 2:45 pm #

    Just downloaded your guide, and learned a lot. Have a couple of questions, can i jump in to a league type the swedish one that already played about 10 games/rounds or must i wait until a league starts to have the stats on my side ? If i cant find a value bet before start but can get one for example 10- 15 minutes in the game and no goals has been scored, is that a value bet or is the stats only valid before kickoff. In your example you use 5 years to calculate, is that the least years you must have to find statistics that you can rely on ? Maybe this is beginners questions but i hope you can give an answer. Thanks for the guide, i can recommended it. Worth every penny !

  23. peter
    16 June 2013 at 4:46 pm #

    Hi,
    I am trying to price “mythical matches” using both sets of match odds. Is there a formula?
    Thx

    • Soccerwidow
      17 June 2013 at 6:43 am #

      Hi Peter,

      sorry but we don’t do “mythical” or “fantasy” matches. Those are computer simulations and not real games. Of course, there must be some formulas, but we only look into real competitions with real teams and real people.

  24. Glenn
    1 October 2013 at 11:26 pm #

    Accidentally stumbled upon this blog. Now, the problem I have with the blog is that it uses a language that offers nothing more than a chaotic kaleidoscope of meaningless colours. It’s pretty to look at, sounds incredibly intellectual, and to my mind, is about as ‘real’ to reality, as a mirage is to vision.

    Do any of you actually speak English, or do you reserve your conversation only for those whom understand the language?

    I don’t mean to be flippant or obnoxious, it’s just that I am pretty much frustrated by what you are saying. I’m a reasonably intelligent guy, but I am left wondering what the hell you have just said, and how it correlates to the ‘real’ world?

    For instance, I bet on football matches at the weekend, and I keep a spreadsheet. I play accumulator bets, and unsurprisingly I have never won any accumulator bet I have ever placed. However, I am constantly close to doing so. If I bet on 8 matches to be either, Home Win, Draw, or Away Win, I constantly get 5 or 6 correct.

    I don’t understand the different bets I can play, but I have just learned of ‘combination bets’, and believe that if I had bet that way, my 6 correct guesses would pay out each time. I am not a big gambler, I only bet a pound or two each week.

    The spreadsheet I keep allows me to use probability on a team’s form factor. If each team actually played to form, I believe I would be a very profitable better indeed…but they don’t play to form week in, week out, they are like volatile shares, going up and down daily.

    Form factors allows the better to spy for strong teams against weak teams, and thus to place bets on ‘win’ scenarios, which is what I do.

    I have read almost everything you have written in your articles, and I am just as blank now as I were when I started reading. My question is…how does all this apply in real world situations. As capable and professional as you are, you don’t seem able to simplify your concepts and articulate them in any true understandable means. What you write might as well be nuclear physics, and it is very frustrating, because I can intuit the importance of what you are writing about.

    Would it be possible for you to write an article on combination bets? What do 3 and 4 fold bets mean and how do they work?

    Your blog offers to aid betters to bet profitably. This it may do for the professional betters, but for the lay better, it seems out of reach of understanding.

    Peace.

  25. Mark
    2 October 2013 at 1:35 pm #

    Hi Soccerwidow, I stumbled across your blog in August and I’ve been totally enthralled since. To assist Glen (above) my advice would be to purchase Soccerwidow;s “How to calculate Odds” workbook. It’s extremely comprehensive and anything I didn’t understand I googled, and googled again, and still google. It will probably be a few months before I understand it fully but as I bet on both soccer & Australian Rules Football I found it invaluable. I can’t wait for your next article.

    Thanks.

  26. Glenn
    2 October 2013 at 8:46 pm #

    Hi Soccerwidow,

    Many thanks for the reply. To be honest, I have to admit to arrogance with my earlier post, borne out of frustration , of course. I humbly apologise.

    I hold a philosophical view when it comes to making bets. The ‘ordinary’ better considers from a perspective of discernment. In other words, without recourse to mathematical computational skill, and using only historical result data, a better discerns the ‘form’ of one team against that of another, and draws a perspective of ‘likelihood’ of the result of the match he/she is going to place a bet on.

    Team form is everything. Regardless of the sport, knowing form is the most important element in betting. Now, historical data holds no influence or consequence to current form, it really doesn’t. The historical data of prior seasons cannot influence current season’s form factors…because the variables may have changed, and generally have.

    For instance, look at Man United’s (English Premier League) current form factor against last season. Using the team’s historical data from last season would have lost many bets, because doing so would have thrown up false positives. Man United’s dip in form is more than likely due to change of management and management skills…Moyes is no Ferguson. The variables for continuance of ‘good form’ have been disrupted.

    This coming Saturday’s game between Sunderland hosting Man United provides, according to my own data spreadsheet, Man United having a small edge of ‘away’ form factor (3) against Sunderland’s ‘home’ form factor of (0). I expect Man United to win as they have a ‘score probability’ of 23.9% against Sunderland’s -14%. Sunderland do not have a form factor or score probability to create a draw…they will lose against Man United.

    However, if Man United were away to Man City, I would expect City to win because their home form factor is (9), and their score probability is currently 50.8%, which means they should beat Everton this coming Saturday, because Everton’s ‘away form factor is only (5), and their score probability is only 4.7%. If all 4 teams play to form, these will be the results, but form is affected and influenced by many variables, even on the day, and even as the game is played, so a bet using form as a determinant is placed hoping that certain variables do not come into play to affect the expected outcome.

    Thanks for the links, will take a look.

    Best wishes

    • Soccerwidow
      3 October 2013 at 10:17 am #

      Hi Glenn,

      if you really are having an 80% hit rate then the only thing you need is the application of a rigid and strict staking plan. Here are two articles on this topic:

      Psychology of Gambling and the Importance of a Staking Plan
      Choosing the Right Staking Plan

      With a hit rate of 80% you certainly don’t need permutations or accumulators to generate a steady income. A fixed staking plan will do this job quite nicely and level out the risk of losing.

      Accumulators reduce your chances of making any profit as it only needs one bet to go wrong to lose the whole lot. Here is an article on combinatorics to help you calculate your chances of success with permutations:

      Combinatorics and Probability Theory in Football Betting

  27. Glenn
    4 October 2013 at 7:08 am #

    Hi Soccerwidow,

    Thanks for the reply, will look at Staking Plans, but must admit I have never heard of them.

  28. Peter
    13 October 2013 at 10:03 am #

    i am looking at hockey right now, and see that with 5 years data every team have played around 130-148 matches depending on leagues. And dividing them into quartiles it means that each quartile going to have 32-37 games. Should i make 5 quartiles to get even better result, with football each quartile have around18-23 matches and thats where its going to be if i divide hockey into 5 quartiles instead of 4 or is it good with more games.

    • Soccerwidow
      13 October 2013 at 1:04 pm #

      Hi Peter,

      you’ll need to see which cluster size will return the more accurate results.

  29. Lauri
    7 May 2014 at 1:04 pm #

    I lost the course and value detector sheets because my computer broke down and 1,5 years later, Soccerwidow still has data that I bought them so I sent her a mail and within 1 hour she already responded and sent me new spreadsheet and course.

    Thanks so much for this, Soccerwidow. It shows you truly care about your followers 🙂

  30. Menime
    31 May 2014 at 5:21 am #

    Hi! I want to buy your course but I have problem with paypal.. Can you send me information for paying via moneybrookers and price equivalence on usd?

    • Soccerwidow
      31 May 2014 at 5:34 am #

      Hi Menime, thank you for your interest in our course.

      Our payment options can be found here: Payment Options
      They include Skrill (Moneybookers), and the payment address is: admin[at]soccerwidow[dot]com (Please replace the [at] with @ & [dot] with . – we need to do this safety measure when publishing on the website, otherwise there are too many bots reading and then spamming our email address)

      Today’s exchange rate calculates US$82.14 equivalent to £49. However, should you (or other clients) purchase any other days, then please follow the link to Google, and it gives you the amount of the day.

      We look forward to your custom, and thanks again for your interest. 🙂

  31. peter
    31 May 2014 at 11:04 am #

    Hi !

    Purchased both over/under course and league with head to head history about a year ago. Made my own tables with the over under course, getting quartileodds for example matchodds, halftime odds and so on. Now to my question, wich one of them makes the best result according to you over/under or league with head to head history ?

    • Soccerwidow
      1 June 2014 at 3:55 pm #

      For value betting, statistical outliers are often the most interesting candidates. Patterns are also easier to spot, for example the Over 1.5 Goals market.

  32. menime
    6 June 2014 at 8:14 am #

    Hi in exercises 1.2 part E. Your calculation of absolute deviation for under 0.5 goals equal to 24% I can’t understand how you calculate it. I have result 26.13% for this

    • Soccerwidow
      6 June 2014 at 4:31 pm #

      Hi menime,

      I just emailed to you the underlying spreadsheet for the course which contains the graph you are referring to. There you’ll find the calculation for under 0.5 goals.

      Hope this helps.

      Kind regards,
      Soccerwidow

  33. Ian
    18 June 2014 at 12:35 pm #

    Hello Soccerwidow,

    I’ve just purchased your Over/Under course and your Value Bet detector. They are both excellent products and they bring together all the knowledge that I have accumulated over a few decades.

    Unfortunately, it has taken me this long to figure out the simple fact that value bets + staking plan = steady profits 😉

  34. Roger
    22 August 2014 at 10:46 am #

    Hi !
    I have purchased your Over /Under course and HDA table, both are great products and offer great insight. However, I have some questions I would like to ask:
    1. When calculating odds for Over/Under, in your opinion is the average stats of the teams’ last 5 years’ performance better, or using the teams’ last 25 games better as a predictor of Over/Unders?
    2. In the latter part of your over/under course, you mention that using BH/BA clusters as a method of predicting O/U results. Is there anywhere I can obtain these cluster tables of different leagues, or would I have to make them myself?
    3. Lastly, should streaks be considered into part of the equation? For example , if team A has been going Over 2.5 for 9/10 last games, should this be included? Or should we just look at the whole picture, i.e. last 5 years’ performance?

    Thank you so much for your help , I really appreciate it!

    • Soccerwidow
      23 August 2014 at 10:06 am #

      Hi Roger,

      (1) In the OU course I explain odds calculation in general and also introduce the concept of clustering. For building groups a good amount of data is necessary, and therefore I use 5-seasons of data. Otherwise distributions are harder to recognise.

      The Value Bet Detector is a tool for calculating the probabilities for a single match. In it I use only the last 25 games, but the H2H of the last 10-years as a correction factor. The calculator is only applicable for a subset of matches (with at least six H2H meetings at the same ground in the last 10 calendar years) whilst the course addresses a much larger data set and much larger group of potential matches for analysis.

      (2) Regarding cluster tables, the course teaches how to do them yourself without relying on us to publish more tables. However, as you are not the first, and we have been asked many times if we can provide tables for different leagues, the good new is that I have finally addressed this issue and just few days ago finished a template. Within the next week cluster tables for major leagues will be put up for sale.

      (3) Streaks happen… for example, the average height of the German male population is 178 cm. However, there is a good chance that you may see 10 men in the street, one after the other, who are all less than the average height. In other words, streaks have no relevance on the real distribution.

      Hope this helps and thanks for your question.

  35. Giovanni
    31 August 2014 at 11:47 am #

    Hello SoccerWidow, do you have any source where I can find odds for over/under x goals for the bundesliga 1 2013/2014. I am working on an essay and I need these odds in order to apply my betting strategy and see if it works.
    Thanks in advance

    • Soccerwidow
      2 September 2014 at 2:46 pm #

      Hi Giovanni, check out the Link Directory. We list there all reliable Internet sources known to us.

      Unfortunately, you will only find odds for OU 2.5 goals for download from various sources. If you need to get other OU odds then it will be manual work to fetch them from the archives from odds comparison sites.

  36. Marc
    15 February 2015 at 10:00 pm #

    Hi Soccerwidow,
    As a couple of your previous posts I too am having some difficulty with exercise 1.2 part E could you please advise on how to work this out.
    Thanks in advance

    • Soccerwidow
      16 February 2015 at 1:44 pm #

      Hi Marc, I just emailed to you a spreadsheet which contains all calculations to come up with the charts used in the course. Hopefully, this will help you to get to the correct answer in 1.2.(E). Don’t worry, you are not the first to get a headache with the formulas for relative and absolute deviation, and certainly not the last. However, I am sure that you will master it! 🙂

  37. Conor
    28 December 2015 at 12:34 pm #

    Hi Soccerwidow,

    Thanks for the great guide, I’m learning a lot 🙂

    Like Marc above I’m having trouble with Exercise 1.2, Part E. Specifically the part where you have to calculate the average of the percentages for over/under x goals.
    I would greatly appreciate it if you could show me how to calculate the average of percentages.

    Many thanks.

    • Right Winger
      6 January 2016 at 4:50 pm #

      Hello Conor,

      Thanks for your input. Before we send you a little something to help you out, try first on your own. If you already know the percentages then it really is a question of adding them all together and then dividing by the total number of figures. If I have misunderstood your question, then by all means come back to me.

      All the best.

  38. Panagiotis
    4 January 2016 at 9:31 pm #

    I have created an excel sheet in which i have the percentage of every team of over/under for the last 4 seasons (home-away-overall) to premier league. Also i have and the mean goals per match(home-away-overall) for every team. From this sheet i have calculated the trendline for under2,5 goals and the trendline for over2,5 goals. As input to trendline i put the home average goals per match for home and away average goals for away team dividing by 2 in order to have the average goal per match for this match. So i calculate the under 2,5 from the under 2,5 trendline which i have in the excel sheet. The results i have until now are disapointing, 4/4 lost bets. i bet only value odds. Do you find my strategy wrong? What can i do to improve my strategy. Sorry for my english.
    Sincerely, Panagiotis

  39. Right Winger
    6 January 2016 at 4:45 pm #

    Hi Panagiotis,

    No, nothing wrong with the strategy but four bets is too small to make any assumptions about the validity of your approach.

    Firstly, we always use the last five complete seasons’ data for any analysis. This may or may not make a significant impact on your selection criteria.

    Secondly, winning and losing bets do not always line up in a uniform manner. Our recent article about winning and losing streaks may help you understand better.

    Thanks for your contribution.

  40. Charles
    12 February 2016 at 10:45 pm #

    Hi!

    I’m trying to understand the calculations of Excercise 1.2 E, but I’m stuck.

    Could you send me the underlying spreadsheet?

  41. Akakpo Nicholas
    21 March 2016 at 9:19 pm #

    Can u please help with question 4.1 how to read and understand betting tables

  42. Right Winger
    21 March 2016 at 9:32 pm #

    Hello Nicholas,

    I think the best thing to do is buy the course – it’s all explained in detail!

  43. Flavien
    30 April 2016 at 2:06 pm #

    Hello SoccerWidow,

    Are the principles learned inside this book also applyable to horse race?

    Thanks

    • Soccerwidow
      2 May 2016 at 10:01 am #

      Hi Flavien,

      Statistics are statistics, they are applicable to everything that can be counted. Question is: Do you have enough data which can be analysed for horse racing?

      The course will teach you how to analyse data. Which data you then analyse and apply your knowledge to, is up to you. So, in principle, yes.

      • Flavien
        3 May 2016 at 9:30 am #

        Thanks a lot, I just purchased your E-book today, and I’m enjoying it so much.

        You’re so great!!!

  44. Teck Chuan Lee
    7 July 2016 at 7:48 am #

    Hello there.

    If Im understanding correctly here, there are 4 ways to get Total Goal True odds and value

    1. Home and Away 25 matches average + H2H matches average

    2. 5 seasons of league total goal general stats, true odds.

    3. According to your pdf total goal over/under, 5 seasons of league match history, averaging home team and away team, no H2H data included. Minimum of 85 matches Home Away

    4. Clustering with of 1×2 odds groups.

    Please advice. What kind of odds is suitable for different kind of situations. With your experience? Which of these yield better?

  45. Teck Chuan Lee
    7 July 2016 at 7:56 am #

    Hi there I have just purchased Over under odds calculation PDF.
    I need help. Ive read a lot of your writing, and practicing over 100 bets with value 1 & value 2 in mind.

    However I still cannot make profits. My losses are way too difficult to cover back with my winnings because most of the time the odds I’m betting are low. Winnings are still too little to cover the losses of full amount. Im still wondering how to cover back the losses.

    The data I’m using is from soccerway. Home and away 25 matches, and H2H 6 to 25 matches.

    My staking plan is fixed risk fixed win at 28 units.

    I have lost quite a big number of bets from 1×2 market and Total goal market.

    Have I missed something important in my odds calculation?

    • Soccerwidow
      7 July 2016 at 8:35 am #

      Hi Teck Chuan,

      There is a completely upgraded version of the course just in the process of being published.

      The questions you are asking are all addressed in the new version. Please be patient for a few more days, when the new course will be available to the public.

    • Soccerwidow
      7 July 2016 at 8:43 am #

      The 1×2 market is far trickier than the goal market.

      If you are new to betting, we strongly recommend to specialise on the goal market before moving on to more complex markets. Also concentrate your efforts on one league only first (ideally a league you’re not supporting to remove any bias you may have), and then later extend to more leagues. Paper exercise for a time before committing any money.

      Successful betting takes a very long time. You need to understand everything first before you actually have a chance to succeed. It’s like in any other serious business. One cannot just go ahead and set up a business and then expect the business to return money immediately. With setting up a business, the advantage is that you’re at least not losing all your investments if you have reasoning errors. With betting, your stakes are gone faster than is comfortable. Therefore… Paper exercise! As long as it takes.

      • Teck Chuan Lee
        7 July 2016 at 9:10 am #

        Thank you. Do I have to buy the upgraded version? I have just bought this Over Under PDF

        • Soccerwidow
          8 July 2016 at 1:09 pm #

          Hi Teck Chuan,

          The upgraded version is going to be more expensive than the one you just bought, but as soon as we publish the second edition we will send out an email to all buyers of the first edition. They will receive a discount for the upgraded edition which will not only reimburse you the £49 you paid for the current course but even discount a little bit more from the new price. Nothing to worry there.

          Best wishes,
          Soccerwidow

  46. Teck Chuan Lee
    10 July 2016 at 1:16 am #

    Questions regarding clustering.

    The odds you used to get Home/Away quotient is opening odds of bookmakers or the odds after adjusting to market buy and sell?

    I get different results of cluster selections most of the time, switching from opening odds to current odds.

    Thanks

    • Soccerwidow
      10 July 2016 at 8:02 am #

      The course uses football-data.co.uk data. The odds are taken on Friday evenings before the weekend games, and on Monday evenings for the week days. My approach is to have plenty of time to do all the calculations and make decisions, and totally remove the need to sit in front of the computer just before a game starts. There are families and lots of other nice things to do than to spend the time in front of a computer on a Saturday or Sunday.

      Anyway, if you wish to use opening odds then you would have to adjust the tables accordingly. However, even if the clusters move slightly, it shouldn’t be too much of a movement because odds don’t change so much that they effect the HO/AO quotient massively. To play it safe for moving odds you can always use 2 adjoining clusters when calculating odds.

  47. Lee
    12 July 2016 at 10:40 pm #

    Hi, when is the new course going to be published?

    Also can the odds be calculated for over 1.5 and over 2.5 using this course. And will the course help in anyway taking value in play?

    Does the course provide access to data to calculate odds?
    Thanks
    Lee

    • Soccerwidow
      15 July 2016 at 12:03 pm #

      Hi Lee, the completely revised edition of the course has finally been published: Fundamentals of Sports Betting
      To answer your question, yes the odds for over 1.5 and over 2.5 can be calculated using this course. In regards of taking value in play the course will also be helpful as you can apply the knowledge of calculating probabilities to both, half time and full time goal market. Then you can chose, for example, the matches with a high probability to score during the first half. These matches you can back, say O 2.5 goals before kick-off, and lay them as soon as the first goal has been scored. I’m going to address this in more detail in an article to follow.

  48. Teck Chuan Lee
    16 July 2016 at 7:18 am #

    Hello Soccerwidow. Would like to purchase the 2nd edition. Please guide me how

    • Soccerwidow
      16 July 2016 at 7:37 am #

      Hi Teck Chuan,

      Thank you for your interest in the upgrade of the course.

      The email with the discount code for existing buyers has not yet gone out. The course has only been ready for publishing two days ago. Sorry! However, I’m going to email you the code so that you can use it straight away.

  49. James
    30 November 2016 at 1:20 pm #

    Exercise 1.2 Part E is not clear at all how you arrive at your results and your answer to people asking for help is to spend another £40 to get an explanation. Well no thanks it should have been written properly in the first place.

    • Soccerwidow
      1 December 2016 at 9:24 am #

      No need to spend another £40 to get the explanation for exercise 1.2 (E) in the old course. Sorry for this challenge, you are not the first, but I am sure that you will master this exercise!

      I have addressed this question (and many more) in the updated version (2nd edition) of the course in great length. This new course is probably twice as long if not even longer, than the first edition.

      Anyway, should you decide that you don’t want to purchase the second edition, I have emailed to you the spreadsheet which contains all calculations to come up with the charts used in the course you purchased. Hopefully, this will help you to get to the correct answer in 1.2. (E).

      Best wishes,
      Soccerwidow

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