All of our 1×2 HDAFU simulation tables (Home-Draw-Away-Favourite-Underdog) are based on highest bookmaker odds at the close of the ante post betting market (i.e. match kick-off time, when the market switches to ‘in-play’).
All may seem well but how do you check for certain whether you are on track using the bookmaker and/or exchange odds you have access to?
Your Odds vs. Highest Odds
For precision betting our 1×2 simulations include a powerful adjustment tool enabling you to gauge whether or not your promising system on paper is performing in line with the historical data you based it upon.
We call it the Odds Toggle mechanism.
The Odds Toggle will help determine the potential of your chosen strategy or, indicate that it is doomed to fail at the level of odds you are buying (i.e. you are not achieving high enough odds on a consistent enough basis).
How to Calculate the Odds Toggle
The example below shows the 1×2 odds toggle calculations for a single round of matches.
Click on the image below to enlarge it in a new tab:
Three Simple Steps to Calculate Odds Toggle Figures:
The odds bought and the highest available in the market at the time are converted into percentages. In Excel this is a short, easy formula: =sum(1/odds) or =1/odds, with the result converted into a percentage.
Note: The three bold black positive figures in the three right-hand columns of the table above show where odds bought were higher than the eventual starting price but, overall in this example, the odds bought were mainly lower than the highest price available at kick-off (the negative differences shown in bold red).
The percentages for the odds bought are deducted from the percentages for the highest market odds available.
The differences are added together and then averaged to arrive at the final odds toggle figures.
Odds Monitoring is Essential for Reverse Engineering
The percentage difference between the best prices you achieve in the ante post period (with the bookmakers and exchanges in your portfolio) and the highest odds available at kick-off (in the market as a whole) can be used to ‘reverse engineer’ your simulation and view what effect the same experience would have had on the historical results.
Why is this so important?
- If you are regularly achieving better ante post prices than the highest on offer at kick-off, your odds toggle calculations will return more positive values. This will improve the outlook and long-term viability of your chosen betting system.
- Conversely, finding out how far adrift your odds are from the market at kick-off will determine whether it is worth continuing with a strategy or, whether to abort it and save valuable time and money.
- In both cases, you will have precise information available to formulate the most effective staking plan and take best advantage from the situation.
Note: You should use the archived odds and results section in www.oddsportal.com as the benchmark to find the highest bookmaker odds available at kick-off. Odds are updated in real time and the final pre-match odds are usually shown just a few minutes after kick-off.
Our article about Betting Systems Concepts describes how to set-up an Oddsportal account and include their entire complement of bookmakers in your display, whilst our article on Oddsportal Archived Odds helps you get accustomed to the layout of their site.
Precision Odds Monitoring
For precision monitoring you will need to recalculate the values applicable to your strategy after each betting round.
The final odds toggle figure you use should always be the accumulated averages of all the games up to that point, which you have paper tested or bet upon. Do not include any matches which formed part of your historical analysis.
If you are serious about betting then you will want to review your performance every step of the way. An odds monitoring feature like this is a necessary ingredient of any successful betting strategy.
Without it you will have no exact comparison between the system you have spent hours calculating and your real betting results (or paper tests). And believe me, with such small accumulating margins sometimes making huge differences to final results, attention to detail at this level is absolutely essential.