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2017-18 Winter League HDAFU Tables – For Sale!


The Top European Leagues are Ready!

Just a few days after the close of 2016-17, we are pleased to bring you the HDAFU Inflection Point tables for betting on 20 top leagues during the 2017-18 seasons.

As you may already know from our 2017 Summer League tables, you now receive three separate tables for each league purchased. (Except Australia, see below).

Why? Well, we had an idea in early 2016 and experimented with it. Read about that brainwave here.

Why should I buy them?

Because they are the most effective and successful method we know of building a lucrative portfolio of bets targeting the sweet spots in the odds range. Read about our successful Summer League campaign here and our successful Winter League campaign here.

How do I use them?

Full instructions plus a free HDAFU table download is available here.

You can mix Winter and Summer League tables in your order, and don’t forget to apply the discount codes for multiple purchases. (See green box immediately below).

Buy Your Tables Here!

Winter League Analysis 2012-17 – FULL-TIME (FT) – Excel.XLSX:

Buy Now!

PRICE(*): £33.00 GBP Per League

The following discounts apply for multiple purchases:
Buy 5, 6, 7, 8 or 9 leagues = 20% Discount (coupon code: SW20)
Buy 10 leagues = 30% Discount (10 for the price of seven) (coupon code: SW30)
Buy 11 or more leagues = 35% Discount (coupon code: SW35)

Please contact us (sales[at]soccerwidow[dot]com) should you have any questions regarding checkout and payment. For further clarification about the HDAFU tables please use the comment function below.

Should any of the above codes not work for any reason (It’s Javascript and some browsers may prevent the lightbox opening) please use the basic version of the cart to purchase your HDAFU Simulation Tables

The tables for sale are in Excel .XLSX format. Should you require a different format,
please feel free to get in touch with us by email.

(*)Prices are net prices ex VAT (Value Added Tax).

EU VAT rates will be added on the checkout page according to your location if in Europe.
Customers from the United Kingdom currently are not charged any VAT

Read more: EU VAT Information


Help with the Checkout

Open the scroll down list and click a league to highlight it.

Click on the Add to Cart button to include the item in your shopping basket.

Click Continue Shopping to add more items to your cart.

When you are ready to checkout, add your discount code (coupon code) if applicable (see multiple purchase discounts below), and click on Update Cart to register your discount.

Enter your personal details before clicking Continue Checkout at the bottom of the window.

You will then be given a choice of paying with PayPal or your credit card (via Stripe).

Contact us if you wish to pay via Skrill, Neteller or bank transfer.

Upon payment, download links for the files you have purchased will be automatically sent to your email address.


What You Get for Your Money

Instead of the usual one HDAFU table per league, you now get three. (Except Australia A-League, which is a whole season analysis only due to its size and lack of any recognisable mid-season break. The price of this table is reduced to £20.00 GBP).

The new style tables presented here are also optimised for easy filtering.

Our recommendation is for a set of systems in several leagues, enough to provide you with a portfolio of at least 500 bets in a season. You’ll then have a chance of emulating our 2016 campaign.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is there a time restriction on the usefulness of the HDAFU tables?

The tables simulate the profits and losses by betting type for the last five complete seasons if choosing the same bet type for every game of the season. Therefore, the ‘natural’ cut-off point is the end of the following season when the tables have to be re-calibrated.

Simulating the profit/losses when betting on the same outcome over the last five seasons, the tables show a picture of the likely (expected) distribution for the forthcoming season.

If the bettor chooses a distribution which is equally spread over the year (e.g. underdogs in the German Bundesliga with odds between 4.0 and 17.0), then it doesn’t really matter when the systematic betting starts.

The HDAFU tables are a great help at any time throughout the season to provide focus upon profitable areas within your chosen league and allow you to refine your final bet selections.

Further reading:
Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage: Explained
Avoid Placing Bets at the Start of Season

What is the relationship between the HDAFU tables and the Value Bet Detector?

The HDAFU tables simulate profit/losses when betting systematically on one specific bet type, e.g. backing the home win, the draw, the away win, the favourite or the underdog. The Value Bet Detector is an odds and probability calculation tool for individual/particular matches of interest.

Both tools originate from the time Soccerwidow wrote match previews for Betfair and needed to identify games containing value bets for analysis. Here is a summary of those predictions.

The HDAFU tables were initially developed as a tool to recognise clusters of matches that were far more likely to contain value bets, and thus provide filtered sets of matches to preview.

We often receive questions such as, “Can the HDAFU tables and the Value Calculator support each other?” or, “What is the relevance of the HDAFU tables?” or, “Which methodology is better?”

Ultimately, both products are tools for odds calculation and understanding the betting market. The Value Bet detector is an analysis tool for individual matches; the HDAFU simulation tables is better for systematic betting in larger numbers.

Further reading:
How do Bookmakers Tick? How & Why do they Set Their Odds as they do?
How Bookmakers’ Odds Match Public Opinion

How do I structure a portfolio and what is the best size for it?

“A portfolio is a package of bets where extensive analysis has determined the choices (picks)… This is an essential part of the whole betting strategy in order to reduce the risks of losing by diversifying.”

Now focus on the main expressions: extensive analysis… determined choices… whole betting strategy… reduce risks… and lastly… diversifying.

Actually, there is nothing more to say. Just spend some quality thinking time on it.

It totally depends on personal preferences, on the availability of betting markets to you, on your risk awareness, your understanding of probabilities and statistics, and finally, using all of this combined knowledge to make your best personal judgement, never losing sight of the fact that the bottom line is making profits.

Further reading:
Calculating Odds for League Newcomers is Unpredictable
1×2 Football Betting – How to Compile a Winning Portfolio

Are the HDAFU tables for both, back betting and lay betting?

Yes. Although the HDAFU tables directly simulate what happened from a backing perspective over the last five seasons, they are obviously reversible and provide a sound benchmark for formulating lay betting strategies.

Large positive figures and rising curves within the tables indicate promising back betting opportunities, whilst large negative falling curves point to potential lay strategies.

The HDAFU tables come with an odds toggle as well as an exchange commission toggle so that the user can adjust the base figures where necessary – This is of great importance to those wishing to accurately analyse lay strategies.

Don’t forget that betting exchange odds are often ‘higher’ than the highest bookmaker odds and, of course, have a built-in commission surcharge levied by the exchange platform. The effects of these variables can be gauged using the toggle functions within each HDAFU table.

Further reading:
1×2 Betting System: Analysis of HDA Data and Strategy Development – LAY THE DRAW
1X2 Betting System – Staking the Underdog

Why is concentrating on bet types more profitable than betting on teams?

The answer to this question is simple psychology, which often defeats the average punter.

There are millions of people who follow one or another team. They read all the news available, discuss form, players and managers, and everything else there is to think about when a match involving “their” team is coming up.

There are plenty of “must win” situations, and even if the odds seem a little short, bets are still placed on the team they support to win the game. Both reliance on luck and a lot of hope goes into each game.

Unfortunately, gut feelings are very often a false friend and team news also has no relevance to the ‘true odds’ of a game; little wonder that there are more losing punters than winners.

The HDAFU tables help the gambler to disconnect all emotions from betting. The figures show very plainly where to concentrate when compiling a betting system portfolio for profit.

Further reading:
Finding Betting Odds Inflection Points
Half-time Results are more Predictable than Full-time

What do you recommend to read for better understanding of the HDAFU tables?

HDAFU Tables Knowledge Base

1X2 Betting System – Staking the Underdog
How to Compile a Winning Portfolio
Finding Betting Odds Inflection Points
Odds Toggle Function


HDA Betting: Profit/Loss Simulation Tables
PRODUCT SUMMARY

  • Format: Excel .XLSX (compatible with Excel 2007 and higher, LibreOffice, Google Sheets, OpenOffice, etc.)
  • File Size: between 623 KB and 2.85 MB each
  • Publisher: Hertis Services Ltd (former Soccerwidow Ltd); 5th revised edition
  • Simulations within each Workbook: Home Win, Draw, Away Win, Favourite & Underdog, plus a breakdown of individual teams’ performance in each bet type from both a home and away perspective.
  • Language: ENGLISH

By purchasing this product you agree to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy.

After payment you will be redirected to download your purchased product(s). You will also receive an e-mail with a confirmation of your purchase and download link from DPD (our partner for storing and delivering of digital products) as well as from PayPal (our partner for secure payment processing).

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Customer Comment

The results of your 2016-17 campaign are fantastic. I’m going to go through your campaign in detail and learn what I can about how and why you put it together and then hopefully go some way toward achieving what you guys did in that season.

One other thing I wanted to say about what you offer at Soccerwidow….the material – free and paid for – is so valuable and really does teach people what they need to know in order to understand the betting market and what is profitable and what is not, the pitfalls and the best way forward.

I’m very much like you in that I don’t see the value in blindly following someone else picks, but when someone doesn’t know the betting market or how to go about it themselves, blind following is what a lot of people gravitate towards.

With your products they really do teach people and empower them to be able to make their own decisions and do things the right way. I feel I have learned a tremendous amount since I found your website and am very much looking forward to putting it into practice in this upcoming football season.

Great job on what you guys do at Soccerwidow!

Simon


Last Update: 31 July 2017

Categories:1x2 Betting Betting Systems S T O R E



77 Responses to “2017-18 Winter League HDAFU Tables – For Sale!”

  1. Asher
    7 July 2014 at 1:44 pm #

    Many thanks for the spreadsheets. They are very useful.

    I see you removed the lay options, they were very useful in some cases.

    And is there any chance to add more leagues? I will certainly buy the table if you add more…

    • Soccerwidow
      27 July 2014 at 4:05 pm #

      Many thanks for your repeat custom! 🙂

      We can do any of the following:

      Greece Super League
      Scottish Divisions 1, 2 & 3
      English League 1, 2 & Conference

      We definitely have 8 more leagues coming up when their seasons finish. These leagues are:

      Brazil Serie A
      Finland Veikkausliiga
      Iceland Urvalsdeild (a particular goldmine)
      League of Ireland Premier
      Japan J-League
      Norway Tippeligaen
      Sweden Allsvenskan
      USA MLS

      As we have a lot of Australian readers, the A-League is also a possibility, but this does not start again for a few months.

      Regarding lay bets, the tables tell you what not to bet on, so if you are keen on lay betting strategies, you will know by default what to concentrate on – although lay betting for us is purely of interest in-play as ante-post prices are too high and exchange commission has to be paid on winnings, which makes it hard to make decent profits and avoid peaks and troughs in the profit curve.

      • Asher
        28 July 2014 at 10:46 am #

        About the additional tables, I was thinking more on the other Central and Eastern European countries, Japan or Latin America (when the new season starts). I don’t know how much one can bet on a Scottish 3rd division game. Is it possible to change the Scottish 3rd and 2nd division with any other main European Leagues (ex: Austria, Poland, Romania, Russia, etc.)? And if it’s possible to do more than 7 leagues I am very interested.

        • Soccerwidow
          28 July 2014 at 4:00 pm #

          We can certainly look into some of the Central and Eastern European countries you suggest. However, Romania is one that we wouldn’t bet on personally as our contacts there tell us that match fixing is so rife that the league is a sham.

          Austria, Poland, Russia, Switzerland, Denmark, Greece, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, and Hungary are all possibilities. We will add them within the next few days and let you know.

          Take care and best wishes,
          Soccerwidow

  2. Topaz
    30 July 2014 at 10:35 am #

    I would like to know if there is possible to have 2 small changes in the tables:

    (1) Change ‘-‘ with ‘0’ for the year the team did not played
    (2) On the total P/L formula change SUM(2014,2013,2012,2011,2010) to ‘2014+(2013*0.9)+(2012*0.8)+(2011*0.7)+(2010*0.6)’

    Thanks

    • Soccerwidow
      31 July 2014 at 2:51 pm #

      The tables are set up to show “-“ when there is no information for that team in that season (i.e. they did not play that season), and shows “0” when the team has played during the season, makes profit, but registers less than 1 unit profit.

      With the passwords in every data tab, you can unlock the sheets you wish to change and make your own alterations to the formulas as and where you see fit.

      Pro rating the profit/loss columns is certainly an interesting suggestion. I will look into this when the next upgrade is due. Thanks!

  3. Falconer
    18 March 2015 at 6:37 pm #

    Hello Soccerwidow!

    I found your site and articles very valuable, thanks for your efforts!

    With my little excel knowledge I created my own HDA tables and l had been looking for teams, and odds clusters, patterns which could be profitable to bet on.
    After filled with the datas (with average odds from Betbrain and betexplorer), I studied the tables. First I studied the teams, and for example in the English Premier League from 2009-14 Everton made a profit at home in each season (backing the home team bet option). I made an add-up for my excel which shows the current season, and I noticed that so far in this season Everton not so strong at home, and it seems that in this year it would not be profitable to bet home win for this team.
    Of course I know that this is only one example and this season hasn’t been over yet, but my question is that: Is it a safer or better way not to bet on teams but bet on by odds clusters or bet on by ratios? Cause every year the teams’ conditions changes (new coach, a lot of injured players, etc) and I observed that the odds clusters not changes dramatically from year to year maybe.

    Another question: I want to expand my tables with yield and ROI columns, and how I calculate the Roi when for example from 10 played matches 10 home wins happened? I watch the Australian HT market video tutorial and according to that calculation in my example the roi= net profit/(10-10)*lost matches stakes, which is 0. So am I wrong with this calculation?

    Thanks in advance for your answer!

    Regards,

    Falconer

  4. Right Winger
    19 March 2015 at 1:47 pm #

    Hello again Falconer,

    Personally speaking, we concentrate on bet types such as the home win, or the favourite at home, or the underdog away, rather than betting on individual teams. Our analyses are always performed by filtering out the unprofitable areas of a promising bet type highlighted by the HDA tables.

    With ROI, I did explain in the text below the “Backing the Underdog” video that the ROI calculation was a very simplified one just to get the point across – have another look at it and click on the link provided there to find the full ROI explanation.

    Combining many profitable systems based on odds clusters or odds ratios is the way to go in my opinion. Not only does it concentrate efforts on the ‘sweet spot’ in each league but it also compromises unavoidable losing streaks.

    With the number of systems we have running together the chances that all bets in all systems lose in any given round of matches is pretty remote (less than one-tenth of one per cent), so the larger the portfolio of matches, the more they support each other.

    I hope this helps and thanks again for your valuable contributions.

  5. Falconer
    20 March 2015 at 1:32 pm #

    Hello,

    Thanks for your answers!
    Meanwhile I observed your previous ‘profit sectors’ free excel table, and I’m thinking that it would be ideal to collect the larger soccer leagues (12-15 of them) and in each league we just bet on by odds clusters (4-5 clusters groups in each league, which are profitable). We got 60-75 single bets, and for a single weekend we share this amount of bets to 3 days (for friday and the rest of the weekend). This size of portfolio is enough to reduce the lost cause by some ‘weaker’ (not follow the supposed statistical pattern by any reason) clusters? The average 10-20% profit could be realizable with this kind and size of portfolio?

    Thanks,

    Falconer

    • Right Winger
      20 March 2015 at 5:44 pm #

      Hi Falconer,

      Yes, this is effectively what we do. By removing the unprofitable odds clusters at one or both ends of the list (sorted by odds or odds ratios), we end up with the most profitable sector and bet on every game within the calculated parameters.

      10-20% is a good average return although some systems we employ in some of the leagues we use return a whole lot more than this. Some systems fail but these are supported by the winning leagues.

      The only time consuming thing is that at the end of each season, the match selection process has to be repeated by inputting the new season’s results and removing the old fifth season back to once again base calculations on five full seasons of results.

      The “winter” league HDA tables will be available from around the beginning of June. Our own ‘season’ starts at the beginning of March each year – no other reason than personal preference and the fact that the “summer” leagues begin to kick-off around this time.

      Thanks again for your contribution and good luck with your own analysis.

  6. T Bates
    31 July 2015 at 3:06 am #

    Hi

    Are these tables not available for the English Premier League, I can’t find them anywhere can only see the summer leagues

    Cheers

  7. Falconer
    1 August 2015 at 9:18 am #

    Hello Right Winger!

    I want to analyse the half-time markets, but I can’t find a site which shows the half-time results and odds. From where you got the Australian A-league half-time results and odds?

    I know odds-portal has these results and odds but only if you can just click each and every one matches to see.

    It would be good find a site from where we copy the whole results and odds as one, like we did it with the full time results and odds.

    Regards,

    Falconer

  8. Dirk
    3 August 2015 at 2:05 pm #

    Where can I get HDAFU Tables to use them in the current German “1.Bundesliga”

    • Soccerwidow
      3 August 2015 at 2:35 pm #

      Hi Dirk,

      we are in the process of getting the HDA tables ready… Another 2-3 days, and everything will be online and ready for sale.

  9. MustWin
    12 September 2015 at 10:56 pm #

    Hi Soccerwidow / Right Winger,
    first of all gratulation for the fantastic HDAFU Tables! I have brought a lot of them and use them to paper-test a new system. I want to know two different aspects:

    1. Can we all accept more HDAFU Tables in the near future like English minor leagues, Austria, Poland, Belgium, Russia, Switzerland, Denmark, Greece, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Hungary, Scotland… ?

    2. What is about Asian Handicaps in the HDAFU Tables? I think where will be a lot of systems to invent from.

  10. MustWin
    24 September 2015 at 5:49 pm #

    Hi Soccerwidow / Right Winger,

    again, i have also a question Nr. 3:

    Will you make a tutorial for the adaption of the summerleague HDAFU Tabels for the new season then the seasons are all over? It would be very useful. Or a reduce fee for the buyers of the last seasons tabels for the new tables?

  11. Right Winger
    25 September 2015 at 9:29 pm #

    Hi MustWin,

    1. The problem with lower leagues is that they are not very popular with the majority of punters and bookmakers underprice these leagues across the board as a result. When it comes to preparing HDAFU tables for lower leagues, you invariably find red numbers in every bet type. This would indicate these leagues are ideal for laying but of course they are not popular in Betfair either – the prices you find there can never lead to long term profits.

    2. Time is of the essence – we simply have no time to turn these things into a jack-of-all-trades (although it would be nice!). I agree, Asians would be very interesting to see when extrapolated over five seasons.

    3. I cannot guarantee anything at the moment. The HDAFU tables are the pinnacle of insight when it comes to deciding what to bet on but very few people seem interested in them. We do not know whether these will be continued in the future. A huge amount of time goes into them and it’s simply not paying I’m afraid.

    Thanks for your questions and for your interest in Soccerwidow.

  12. Mike
    2 October 2015 at 1:11 pm #

    Hello,

    I have been following your articles on 1×2 betting and was able to create and find my own tables from which I produced an inflection points graph.

    I manage to create the graph for Inflection Points for Home Wins for the English Championship using my own data-set. However, as you can see, the graph is towards downward trend all the way.

    In such cases, where is the inflection points?

  13. Right Winger
    2 October 2015 at 1:16 pm #

    Hello Mike,

    Regarding lower leagues, see my response above dated 25 September, point 1.

    Because the demand for bets in lower leagues is far less than premier leagues, bookmakers tend to reduce odds across the board.

    The trend you have seen in the English Championship is a combination of these reduced odds and higher ‘statistical noise’ created by the fact that there is promotion and relegation in lower leagues. A greater turnover of teams over five seasons certainly affects the results distributions, as fewer teams are ‘ever-present’ during those five seasons.

    If you want my advice, stick to the top leagues in each country only.

  14. Mike
    2 October 2015 at 1:51 pm #

    @Right Winger

    Thanks for answering my Inflection Points for Home Wins for the English Championship question.

    [Another Question]
    I have keep track and stored in my database all the opening odds of my local bookmaker over 1.5 years for all leagues offered. I been thinking to devise a 1X2 bet system based on opening odds.

    Eg. EPL Match 01: 1:$1.90 X:$3.10 2:$3.20
    I will search my database for similar opening odds of the SME league -> EPL and calculate how many times EACH home win, draw and away win occurs for all similar opening odds.

    I then convert frequency% to Fraction x current live odds.
    Eg. Total home win occurs 60% for all such similar odds = 0.6
    Current live odds offered for home is $1.70 (dropped from $1.90)
    Current Value bet = $1.7 * 0.6 = 1.02
    Then I use kelly bet formula to calculate a optimized bet stack.

    Did you do this before, do you think it will work? What are your views?

  15. Right Winger
    2 October 2015 at 2:15 pm #

    Mike,

    Everyone has their own preferred method. We use the last five seasons’ statistical data for every league we analyse – for a statistically significant pool of data.

    I would suggest that 1.5 seasons’ worth will provide too small a data set to see trends and to confirm them.

    With stakes, we use fixed stakes for backing and employ a ratchet method to slowly increase stakes as the bank increases. For lay bets, although we no longer favour them, we would always lay to win the same fixed amount every time.

    You will of course need to paper test any theory you decide to follow up although for the sake of historical data we always use closing odds as our standard benchmark. Nothing wrong with opening odds as long as you then place your bets at the start of the market too – just more time-consuming to collect that data manually and from my observations, opening odds only provide the largest odds available during ante post for some odds on favourites and rank outsiders only.

    Hope this helps!

  16. Cobber
    20 October 2015 at 8:01 am #

    Looking at articles on the site i notice you mention you advocate fixed win staking. i recently purchased a HDA table i was wondering why you calculate the numbers based on fixed stake of $100 yet advocate throughout the site fixed win staking. Looking at the back the underdogs numbers for example if i change it away from fixed stake to fixed win (which means im putting on less $ on long shots) it changes from making money to losing money.
    above you say you now do fixed stake. Which one are you using now for all of your systens?? cheers

  17. Right Winger
    20 October 2015 at 11:06 am #

    Hello Cobber,

    Yes, our attitude has changed down the years. We no longer ‘favour’ ante post lay betting as much as back betting. This is purely because in order to place an ante post lay bet in an exchange you usually forfeit any value in the bet because you are constantly buying a price which is above the backing odds – and then you have to take into account exchange commission.

    In the long run, ante post lay systems tend to be poor performers whether you use a fixed stake or a fixed win plan, although we previously favoured the latter to smooth out the huge profit/loss peaks and troughs that can occur.

    The real advantage of lay betting is ‘in-play’ and we would therefore advocate lay bets for traders rather than system bettors.

    We use fixed stakes in the HDAFU tables for two reasons:

    1) For back bets, fixed stakes definitely perform better than fixed win, especially with underdog betting.

    2) By simulating with fixed stakes, all negative totals for the bet types analysed indicate laying strategies – we therefore don’t need to duplicate the tables with lay odds. The exchange commission toggle is present in the tables to simulate the effects of backing (or laying) with exchanges. (Of course, you can always change the 100 units stake to whatever figure you wish to use).

    To summarise, we rarely touch ante post lay betting but if we were to return to it, then it would be on a fixed win basis. For ante post back betting, we always use fixed stakes.

    I hope this clarifies the situation and many thanks for your valuable question.

  18. OCW
    20 October 2015 at 11:10 am #

    Hi there,

    Just wondering if its just me or the EPL FT HDAFU excel sheet doesn’t come with the Calendar Month Analysis?

    Useful information, thanks for providing this useful resource.

    Thanks!

  19. Right Winger
    20 October 2015 at 11:18 am #

    Hi OCW,

    Yes, we phased out the calendar month analysis becuase it was an unreliable guide. The reason for this being that every two years various leagues begin earlier than usual and end earlier to accommodate the World Cup or the European Championship tournaments.

    Working on our prescribed five seasons’ data set (for statistically significant results) would mean we would need at least 20 years’ data to see any noticeable trends from these early league starts/finishes.

    I hope you’re not too disappointed. As an aside, we will probably add a day of the week analysis to any future HDAFU tables, which is a useful guide when combining several systems from different leagues.

    Best wishes and good luck.

  20. Cobber
    20 October 2015 at 12:02 pm #

    Thank Right Winger. Another question. When i adjust the toggle function even by -1% all the tables that are positive are now negative and the negative ones are even more negative. Given im not based in the UK (for EPL) and dont have access to all the bookies its not reasonable to expect me to get close to the odds and -1% probably isnt low enough. im surprised about the massive impact this is having making most of the strategies unsustainable…am i reading this right?

  21. Right Winger
    21 October 2015 at 3:17 pm #

    Hello again Cobber,

    Yes, you are quite right and this highlights the necessity to find the inflection points in each bet type. Whether you do this with graphs or whether you look at the long list in each HDAFU table and sort the results manually is a matter of personal taste.

    What looks on the face of it like a losing system is sometimes totally transformed when you identify the sweet spot in the best performing bet type. Essentially, you will be discarding clusters of odds or odds ratios at either end of the list (or both; or even discarding a portion in the middle) until you reach a point where you can no longer improve on the bottom line. Check if the clusters you have chosen made a profit in each of the last five seasons and if they did, you have found an ideal candidate for including in a portfolio.

    Sometimes, a combination of sorting by odds clusters (e.g. home and then away) or by ratios (e.g. HxDxA and then Away/Home), or by a mixture of odds clusters and odds ratios will be needed to find the most lucrative combination. It’s trial and error to some degree.

    Try sorting the long list by home odds. Then look down the long list in each bet type or use a formula at the bottom of each column such as =max(range:range) to see the highest figure each bet type reached at a particular point during the five seasons. Then choose the bet type which shows the highest figure to analyse first. By chopping out unprofitable clusters, what you are left with is the real potential of that bet type.

    To summarise, the HDAFU tables exist to show you what is best to bet on in each league and once you have chosen which bet types to analyse, it is up to you to filter and achieve the optimum result possible. If you cut out all the unprofitable sectors you will be targeting games where historically betting profits have been made. If you then only bet within your filter parameters, then each bet you make will effectively be a ‘value’ bet.

    As mentioned frequently above, concentrate on Premier Leagues in each country only. Lack of demand for bets in lower leagues leads to bigger overrounds (basic supply and demand) and anyone betting perpetually in this situation is automatically handing the long term advantage of ‘value’ straight to the bookmaker.

    Thanks for you valued contribution and I hope this helps!

  22. Jason
    31 October 2015 at 8:26 pm #

    Hi,

    I’m confused and I hope you can provide guidance.

    I use the HDAFU spreadsheets to determine a systematized bet for a particular league e.g. bet draw on ‘x’ league when draw odds are 3.5. For a particular round of matches, 3 bets are identified. I could straight bet on the three draws, however I then use the True Odds & value detector sheet to determine value bets for the 3 matches. None of the value bets identified are draws. I don’t bet on the draws, however 2 out of the 3 matches results in draws.

    Please can you assist me with this predicament? Its frustrating and not sure which spreadsheet to believe?

    Thanks

    P.s. love the quality of articles on the site – keep up the great work 🙂

    • Soccerwidow
      4 November 2015 at 5:03 pm #

      Hi Jason,

      the HDAFU tables and the Value Calculator are two completely different tools.

      The HDAFU table are for systematic betting – finding a strategy like you give as an example: Bet draw in ‘x’ league when draw odds are 3.5. The tables strength is finding the inflection points where systematic betting is possible.

      The Value Calculator, on the other hand, is for fans of odds calculation. It calculates the probabilities of an event happening for individual matches. This tool is, strongly speaking, not usable for systematic betting as each match has to calculated individually what is pretty time-consuming.

      Sorry for the confusion, and I promise that at some stage within the next 12 months I will write a comprehensive course on 1×2 betting. including the VC as well as the HDAFU tables.

      • Jason
        14 November 2015 at 7:49 pm #

        Thanks for the response Soccerwidow.

        Another question – in your back/lay formula, there is a calculation i’m not sure on and how you get to those numbers: column / column >= 1.15 and column/column <= 0.85. What is the significance of this portion of the calculation and how did you get to 1.15 and 0.85?

        Looking forward to that course in the future

  23. Right Winger
    15 November 2015 at 8:59 pm #

    Hi Jason,

    Not quite sure what part of the HDAFU table spreadheet you are referring to as in the Odds Ratios clusters, the higher number will always be on the right hand side – using your figures, the cluster would be described as >0.85 <=1.15. If it is this area you are referring to then these cluster figures have been calculated by dividing the entire match list into roughly equal groups, and the 'greater than' and 'less than or equal to' parameters are purely the boundaries of each cluster group. It's a pretty sophisticated system for sorting the data that we employ to make these divisions, and I can't (in simple terms) explain how we do it. Just suffice to say that we sort and divide the data automatically and fine tune manually. Of course, if you want to play around with the cluster groups, simply over-write the figures with your own. So long as the bottom line P/L figure remains unlatered and the number of games Pld and Won still match those of the other ratios, then you can't go far wrong. Jason, I hope I've answered your question but let me know more specifically if I'm missing your point. Thanks again for your contribution.

  24. Jason
    21 November 2015 at 1:18 pm #

    I think you may have misunderstood me – the calculation is for the automatic back/lay column in the true value calculator spreadsheet. In the automatic back/lay formula, there is a >= 1.15 and a <= 0.85. I am struggling to understand how you guys came to that number and calculation? Please could you provide some clarification on it?

  25. Right Winger
    21 November 2015 at 1:26 pm #

    Hi Jason,

    Now I understand. The 1.15 and 0.85 figures appear in the formulas for First Half Goals (over and under 1.5) in the Value Calculator Spreadsheet.

    These are purely manual calibrations based on observations of our collection of over 1,000 completed sheets.

    The 0.85 and 1.15 adjustments bring the calculations within an acceptable error rate of +/-3%.

    I certainly do not want to explain any further how these figures were arrived at or indeed wish to divulge our trade secrets, but once again this is evidence that mathematics is never an exact science – there will always be an error rate in any statistical calculations.

    Thanks again for taking the trouble to write!

  26. Thien
    4 December 2015 at 2:08 pm #

    Hi Soccerwidow / Right Winger,

    i would like your company to provide some tutorial to us for using Profit/Loss Simulation Tables that recently i had bought it.

    Thanks & Regards,
    Thien

  27. Right Winger
    6 December 2015 at 4:42 pm #

    Hi Thien,

    Please check out the knowledge base articles that are linked towards the end of the following article:

    http://soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/hda-1×2-betting-profit-loss-simulation-tables/

    Archived instructional videos are here:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03LGr5V5b3M

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-l52QV6pdo

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N8uRxwn6TIE

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XRzNnQpTKU

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nCVE7QVBMmo

    These will give you an idea how to sort the tables to find the sweet spots. Otherwise, another useful article is the Inflection Points tutorial here:

    http://soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/odds-calculation-en/inflection-points-football-betting-odds/

    Thanks for taking the trouble to write and best of luck!

  28. Manfred
    12 December 2015 at 7:27 pm #

    Hi Right Winger,

    in your comment from 25th of September you mentioned that you’re not sure if there will be new HDAFU tables in the future.

    Can you tell us more regarding the Summer Leauges ?

    Thanks

  29. Right Winger
    13 December 2015 at 3:39 pm #

    Hello again Manfred,

    It is likely that we will continue with Full-Time HDAFU tables only – no-one seems to want the Half-Time tables.

    The updated Summer League tables will be ready and available for sale in around 10-14 days’ time.

    Thanks for your question and no doubt we’ll talk with you again soon.

  30. Teng
    14 December 2015 at 12:44 pm #

    Hello,

    I’ve just purchased some HDAFU tables. However, in the “data” tab, where there are Bookmakers’ highest Odds.
    I wonder the web site that you took the data since i want the exact data to compare with the Betbrain (i often use to archive the highest odd before kick-off for calculating my odds toggle purpose).

    For instance, in your HDAFU for Bundesliga (backing home team to win), odds clusters 2.00 – 2.10 positive result and 1.92 – 2.00 negative. So if i i look for the highest odd before kick-off at Betbrain is 2.01 but your data source is 1.99. It’ll be a bias selection, am i right?

    Can you help to clarify ?

    Thank you

  31. Right Winger
    14 December 2015 at 1:57 pm #

    Hello Teng,

    That is a very valid question and I am glad you have asked it.

    The historical data we use is carefully sifted from Oddsportal. We take the 20 or so bookmakers they provide as their fixed pool, and then add from their optional bookmakers another 10 of the best to make a sample size of 30.

    However, you must always bear in mind that with any of these odds data sites (including Betbrain), they obtain their figures by ‘scraping’ data from the bookmakers’ own websites. It is an impossible task to maintain up-to-the-second accuracy with every single bookmaker. Even an up-to-the-minute service is unlikely. Most of the time the odds you see will already be out of date by the time you visit the bookmaker website. Odds, especially on the more popular games, and particularly the closer you get to kick off, have a habit of changing quickly as the bookmaker balances his book.

    At least with Oddsportal (which is the only site to our knowledge that does this), you can see the times when the historical odds were scraped. Often or not, you can also see from the overround details whether the average and highest odds are accurate, but more often than not there is always one or two odds that skew these results. For example, odds that have not updated since they opened and which then appear so out of kilter with the rest of the market that they are obviously wrong. These have to be taken out of the equation manually.

    I have undertaken many manual exercises to check how quickly odds data sites stay in touch with the bookmakers’ sites by having many open at the same time and checking that the ante post odds showing in Oddsportal, Betbrain, etc., match them. You should not be surprised at how many occasions the figures do not match.

    It is therefore an extremely painful exercise collecting accurate data – every match has to be scrutinised carefully and the errors taken out. You have to have a benchmark to make any kind of assumptions about the market. The close of ante post is the one we choose, and the highest odds at this point are the ones we take. Of course, even higher odds are often available at some point in the ante post market, so using the highest odds in our simulations is more of a mark of ‘average’ than using the average odds themselves.

    The moral of this story is never to trust any website that provides an historical odds data service for free. They cannot possibly ensure it is accurate. It is always better to collect your own data – that which you have checked for accuracy and can rely on. Believe me, taking Oddsportal.com or football-data.co.uk odds data at face value and using them as the basis for your strategies is a recipe for disaster. There are even sites charging for data, which has never been checked for accuracy. “Caveat emptor” – let the buyer beware.

    Always look at the overround figures for clues about the accuracy of historical stats. 1×2 FT results will invariably be 98-104%; 1×2 HT results will almost always be over 100% and up to as high as 108%. (These are benchmarks for the majority of games – the minority of games will be either side of these parameters).

    With any mathematical calculation there is always a margin of error. As a guide, use whatever benchmark you set yourself and build in a margin of +/-5% to cope with data fluctuations. Remember, no statistical calculation is ever 100% accurate, which is why you can never win 100% of your bets.

    A good question and thanks again for your attention to detail.

  32. Rajul
    16 December 2015 at 4:24 pm #

    Dear SW,

    Thank you for this powerful product. I’m finding it tricky to get to grips with it but making progress as I’m particularly keen to develop opportunities and methodologies in the HT market. Based on the English Premiership HT data, doesn’t it appear to make a clear case to do a blanket lay (all matches) of the HT 0-0 correct score, or am I being too simplistic in interpreting this?

    Also, for my next purchase, would you advise buying the Premiership FT data or go for another HT data table and if so which one? I hope to eventually purchase all but for budget reasons at the moment would value your suggestion on the next logical purchase.

    Kind regards,
    Rajul

  33. Right Winger
    16 December 2015 at 4:34 pm #

    Hi Rajul,

    Thanks for your valued custom and taking the trouble to provide feedback.

    Yes, at first glance the HDAFU tables can be slightly overwhelming because they contain so much relevant information, but once you are able to sort the information in the data tab to filter out unprofitable segments of your preferred strategies then they do become very powerful indeed.

    The half-time market is not so popular amongst punters and you can see this in the odds which bookmakers provide. Invariably, HT 1×2 odds carry a higher overround than the FT market. This is because the bookies take less money on HT markets and need to apply a larger margin in order to balance their book.

    However, we do find great ‘value’ in the HT markets ourselves and many of the patterns in a lot of summer and winter leagues are more clear-cut than in the FT markets.

    So far as recommending other tables, I can say for certain that every table contains something remarkable. You’ll see trends and patterns that simply cannot be seen in any other way. It is simply essential to combine historical odds with past results in order to see where the bookies make their money and, of course, where they are vulnerable.

    Regarding your other query surrounding the HT 0-0 EPL market, I will email you privately.

    Thanks again for your interest in Soccerwidow.

  34. Sören
    25 January 2016 at 12:16 am #

    Hello SW,

    do you think a weighting of the different seasons seems to be useful?
    For example multiply the P/L of the latest season with 1 and older ones with less than 1.

    Regards Sören

    • Soccerwidow
      25 January 2016 at 9:51 am #

      Hi Sören, the HDAFU tables are simulations to show “what would have happened when…”, for example the bettor would have bet on Manchester Utd to win through a whole season, or 5 years. Or what would have happened if the bettor would only have bet on odds in the region of 1.8 to 2.5, and so on.

      Weighting the different seasons doesn’t make sense for simulations of this kind.

      • Sören
        25 January 2016 at 1:35 pm #

        Thank you for the explanation Soccerwidow.
        I just thought maybe it would be good to weighting the seasons, because there are changes made over the last 5 seasons (manager, player changed,…) and so the latest seasons should be more dominant than a 5 year old one if I want to estimate the outcome for the next season?!

  35. jo
    5 March 2016 at 10:32 pm #

    let’s assume I want to back by Ratios: Backing the Favourite to win, using Away odds divided by Home odds cluster group. I’m not quite sure where do I need to take Home odds from? What I think is I take the highest odds for Away team available for me, and where do I take odds for Home team from? Is it the same bookmaker that gives the highest odds for Away team regardless are these odds the highest available for me or not?

  36. Right Winger
    6 March 2016 at 3:13 pm #

    Hi Jo,

    Wherever you select your odds from, the key is to be consistent. Get the home and away odds from the same sources.

    Stick to one bookmaker if it’s easier for you, or pick the highest odds from a selection of bookmakers. But don’t mix the two approaches.

    As you are always looking to place bets at the highest prices available to you, then it is probably better to choose all the bookmakers you have accounts with. This will provide you with a more realistic picture.

    Of course, the fewer games you analyse, the more margin for statistical error there is. If you are analysing five seasons’ worth in any league, then choosing just one bookmaker will usually suffice. If it’s a smaller sample size, say just one season, then a bigger pool of available data would be better – i.e. data from several bookmakers.

    I hope this helps and good luck!

  37. Kevin Kapenda
    14 April 2016 at 10:35 pm #

    Hi,

    Let me get this straight. If I buy a table, I look at the profitable odds, and the less profitable odds. I bet on the odds that tend to show a profit?

    Kevin

    • Soccerwidow
      22 April 2016 at 11:29 am #

      Hi Kevin, in a nutshell, yes. But only in a nutshell. 🙂

      You find the profitable odds clusters, and then develop a strategy out of this. However, it’s about system betting. This requires to take every round, not just a single game.

  38. Frank
    13 May 2016 at 1:34 am #

    hi
    Im from South Africa and bookmakers from here give the English Championship nice odds. Is there anyway i can get Championship table

    • Soccerwidow
      23 May 2016 at 7:35 am #

      Hi Frank, we have not yet made a decision which tables to offer for the new season. However as the season doesn’t start before August, there’s plenty of time…

  39. John
    12 June 2016 at 2:20 am #

    Hi,

    Do you know when we can expect the “Winter Leagues – Full time” tables updated for the 2015/2016 season to become available for purchase?

    Best regards
    John

    • Soccerwidow
      15 June 2016 at 8:34 am #

      Hi John, the updated HDA tables will be available 1-2 weeks before the new season starts.

  40. Karsten
    31 July 2016 at 8:11 pm #

    Strange: I do not see any tables for the 2016/17 seasons to buy as in the headline announced. Thanks for Information.

    • Right Winger
      31 July 2016 at 8:36 pm #

      Hello Karsten – sorry, some issues with the site today, which are now resolved. Please refresh your screen or clear your cache to see the 2016-17 article and HDAFU tables.

  41. jo
    17 February 2017 at 10:19 am #

    Hi,

    I was waiting for 2012-2016 summer tables to buy, regular chart didn’t and don’t show any updates, nor I got an e-mail notification about them available. i thought why it takes so long to wait since the new summer season is 7 just days away. Today, i opened basic version of the chart and found that 2012-2016 summer tables are available. Don’t forget to e-mail about new tables since the earlier you get them, the more time you have to analyse them.

    • Soccerwidow
      18 February 2017 at 10:21 am #

      Hi Jo, as far I’m aware you have been already in touch via email with Rob and purchased your tables. Thank you and all the best for the forthcoming season!

  42. Daniel
    13 June 2017 at 5:05 am #

    Hi Right Winger and Soccer Widow!

    Just want to ask you, why do you compile France Ligue 2 tables along with all others? Didn’t you say that it’s best to use only first tier leagues for this type of betting strategy? What is so special about Ligue 2?

    Thanks,
    Daniel

    • Right Winger
      13 June 2017 at 12:47 pm #

      Hi Daniel,

      Good question.

      Yes, France Ligue 2 is the only second tier league we consider including in any portfolio.

      And yes, it is a special league and very different from any other lower league we have ever analysed in detail.

      We include it because one bet type within Ligue 2 always stands head and shoulders above the rest. And the high frequency of the match result in question always reaps dividends.

      I would say that all other lesser leagues (i.e. not top tier) tend to suffer from a lot of statistical noise due to the fact that the stability of the number of teams playing in the league is affected by teams leaving either by promotion or relegation.

      Indeed, some of the lesser leagues have a 40% turnover of teams each season – in other words, potentially eight out of 20 teams will not be playing in that league the following season.

      France Ligue 2 is no exception to the disruption caused by promotion and relegation. Only 35% of the 20 teams were ever-present in all five seasons 2012-17 (and also during 2011-16). This is pretty typical of a lower league, whereas with a premier league, this percentage is usually 60-70%, with only relegation affecting the number of clubs present.

      With France Ligue 2, it doesn’t seem to matter what the make-up of the league is in terms of the teams represented in any single season, the results always remain remarkable.

      It’s always the same bet type that makes money, whichever season you look at. I can’t tell you why this phenomenon exists in Ligue 2, but it is a peculiarity we regularly take advantage of.

      I hope this helps!

  43. jo
    13 June 2017 at 9:41 pm #

    Hi Right Winger,

    are you going to publish results of winter 2016-2017 season leagues?

    • Right Winger
      14 June 2017 at 1:59 pm #

      Hi Jo,

      This is in the final throes of completion and will be published in the next 2-3 days…

      • Daniel
        20 June 2017 at 10:28 am #

        Hey Right Winger,

        any news on the release of the winter seasons results? I am really dying to see it!

        Thanks!

        • Right Winger
          21 June 2017 at 5:17 pm #

          Hi Daniel,

          Yes, it’s all become a little hectic here, although I am hoping to finish and publish the article tomorrow.

          But don’t worry, I can assure you and everyone else who is waiting in anticipation that it will be worth waiting for!

  44. Simon
    15 June 2017 at 3:04 pm #

    Could I get your opinion on a system I found within the Belgian Whole season analysis please?

    It’s relating to the AWAY WIN inflection graph. There is a point between odds of 8 to 8.35 where is a very sharp increase in the graph curve for a lot of profit.

    On analysis of this I found the following:

    Number of bets in 5 seasons: 21
    Number of seasons in profit: 5
    Profit: 5955
    Hit Rate: 47.62
    Win streak: 4
    Losing streak: 3
    Yield: 283%

    The profit and yield figures seem extremely good for such a small number of bets, as well as the system being in profit for all 5 seasons. The actual yearly profits (most recent first) are: 500, 500, 2020, 1100 and 1835.

    It seems on the face of it a very efficient use of resources to use a system like this.

    In your opinion would a system with so few bets, most likely 4-5 in this upcoming season be a viable one to include in a portfolio?

    Thanks.

  45. Right Winger
    15 June 2017 at 3:53 pm #

    Hi Simon,

    The system you have described is obviously very high risk as it involves potentially very few bets in a season.

    In your overall portfolio, you’ll need a blend of low, medium and high risk systems running parallel with each other to support taking a risk on something like your Belgian example.

    We would probably include only one such system in our portfolio, subject to it being a part of a minimum of 15 systems running concurrently. But personally, I would prefer something providing a minimum of perhaps 10-15 bets a season.

    And, you really cannot afford to miss a single betting opportunity playing such small numbers.

    At the end of the day, it’s all about personal taste and building a sound portfolio according to your acceptance of risk. Go with it as part of a well-balanced portfolio, but not in isolation.

    Hope this helps.

  46. acepoint
    19 June 2017 at 7:07 am #

    In your 10k in 178 days article you announced a a stop-loss mechanism and a ratchet system for upcoming HDAFU-tables. Is this implemented in the new 2017/18 tables? And are the any other improvements compared to the summer 2017 leagues? Thanks in advance and congrats to your great work. I’m using the summer leagues for two months now and like them very much.

    • Right Winger
      21 June 2017 at 5:14 pm #

      Hi Acepoint,

      The 2016-17 Campaign review will be ready in the next day or so. The free Excel download with that article will contain an example of a ratchet system and should be self-explanatory.

      The HDAFU tables do not contain a ratchet or stop-loss mechanism themselves. They are purely tools for compiling a balanced portfolio of bets. How you manage your money as you bet on your portfolio is a separate issue to finding systems that work in the first place.

      The 2017-18 Winter League tables are essentially the same as the 2017 Summer League tables. Just a couple of cosmetic changes, including moving the favourite and underdog odds next to the 1×2 odds to make it easier to sort.

      Lastly, thank you for your kind words – always good to hear that the products work for our customers as well as they do for ourselves!

      Good luck!

  47. jo
    19 August 2017 at 10:53 pm #

    Hi Right Winger,

    why the HDAFU tables no longer contain Home Fav/Dog and Away Fav/Dog simulations?

    • Right Winger
      21 August 2017 at 3:14 pm #

      Hello Jo,

      There are a number of reasons:

      a) When we included in the past the additional four analyses you have mentioned (both in the data tab and the backing by teams, odds and ratios tabs), obviously the size of the Excel workbooks was a lot larger (some were 12 MB!) than the slimmed-down versions we present today (maximum 2 MB).

      This meant that for people with slower processors in their computers, simple commands such as sorting the match list were painfully slow.

      b) With continued use of the tables for our own systems and, when writing the User Guide to help everyone understand how to use them, it became more and more apparent that we didn’t actually need the extra level of depth in the favourite/underdog analyses.

      When looking at the inflection points graphs to decide what to analyse, and then sorting the data to find the best systems, it is obvious that if you are looking at favourites in your profit/loss curve, then the vast majority of those games will be home favourites.

      Vice versa for underdogs – most of them will be the away teams.

      Of course, looking at the favourite or underdog from any perspective can be achieved simply by sorting the data tab and hiding what you don’t want to see.

      Analysing the away favourites and home underdogs therefore became more and more superfluous, which led to the decision to abandon them altogether in favour of reducing the size of the files for faster analyses.

      So, the decision was therefore nothing sinister or groundbreaking/revolutionary.

      I guess it is just another example of the law of diminishing returns in action – the further you go with an analysis, the less worthwhile the time spent is, compared to the results achieved.

      I hope this all makes sense!

  48. Rado
    1 September 2017 at 11:25 pm #

    Hi, I plan on buying 10-12 tables and using them right away. There is, however, one question that is bothering me. You say that these tables are compiled using the highest bookmaker odds for all the games. However, I want to bet using only one bookmaker. Are the tables going to work that way? I mean, for example, let’s say I discover that according to your tables, in EPL all home games with odds between 2,10 and 2,50 will produce a profit, and then find and bet every single game where the home team is priced between 2,10 and 2,50 in Pinnacle ONLY. Is this going to produce the expected results?

    • Right Winger
      2 September 2017 at 12:01 am #

      Hi Rado,

      Should be no problem using one bookmaker to bet with, especially if you intend to use Pinnacle.

      However, in order to identify the bets to place at Pinnacle, you will still need to check Oddsportal for the highest odds available in the market near to the close of the ante post period.

      Ignore Marathonbet, 1Xbet and Tempobet, as these tend to be misleading outliers.

      As the tables are based on highest closing odds, go with the majority view excluding these three problematic bookmakers. If the highest odds excluding these three are within your inflection points, then go ahead and place the bet with Pinnacle.

      Also, read the comments sections in the other HDAFU Table articles, especially the User Guide, and the Winter and Summer League Campaign reports, which all contain further tips on how to identify the bets.

      I hope this helps!

      All the best for now.

  49. Rado
    2 September 2017 at 6:56 am #

    Thanks for the fast reply.

    So, to sum it up, I must check the odds in oddsportal, and then place the bets according to the odds there, regardless if the odds in Pinnacle match them?

    For example, lets say my found system contains matches between 2,10 and 2,50. Then I find a match in oddsportal which is at 2,11 (which is in my odds interval), but in Pinnacle the odds are at 2,06. Should I bet on it then? I mean, should I identify the matches based only on the odds in oddsportal, regardless of which odds Pinnacle offers?

    And one last question, must I check the odds and place the bets always ON THE DAY of the matches and not earlier?

    • Right Winger
      2 September 2017 at 12:49 pm #

      Hi Rado,

      Yes, check the odds in Oddsportal first and decide to place the bet in Pinnacle depending on what the market majority in Oddsportal indicates.

      As Pinnacle is one of the sharper books around (low margin, high turnover), the odds you will receive will always be there or thereabouts in line with best market price available.

      The only issue you may come across using just a single bookmaker to place bets is when Oddsportal indicates one of the teams as a favourite but in Pinnacle they are the underdog (or vice versa).

      For example, if your system is for favourites and Oddsportal indicates that the bet should be placed, you should place the bet on the team in question even if Pinnacle designates that team as the underdog – I hope this is clear. This only ever materialises on games where the home and away odds are very close to each other.

      I’ve mentioned in other comments throughout the blog that we place the majority of our bets during the final hour before kick-off. However, because we know how the market is likely to move, it is possible to place bets sometimes days in advance, especially with home teams or favourites, where prices are likely to drift in (become smaller).

      The contingency for these bets is that if they drift too far and settle outside the smaller of your two inflection points, they can always be laid back at an exchange for an arbitrage. Placing draws or underdog bets in advance is more problematic as some will have a tendency to drift outside the higher inflection point – you’ll then have to lay these for a loss or take a chance and let them run (of course, some will win, some will lose).

      Placing bets early means tying-up money, so you can only consider early placements if your bank can withstand the long term liability and provide enough liquidity needed for bets nearer to their kick-off times. Therefore, you’ll need total control over your game schedule.

      Understanding how the market moves is an interesting, albeit time-consuming exercise. You will eventually suss that bookmakers employ several different strategies in order to gain market share. Some will start out offering best price on the favourites, whilst others fill their books with underdog money first. Some sit in the middle and adopt a more conservative approach throughout.

      They must all keep an eye on each other so that no one book offers odds that stand out like a sore thumb for any length of time, otherwise a flood of money would arrive on that outcome as punters seek best prices. This would make it harder for the bookmaker to balance its books, leaving it no option but to place bets itself with other bookmakers in an attempt to seek parity. (The other solution of extreme odds movements to try and regain balance would unsteady the ship even more).

      So, opening odds get the ball rolling, and depending on the amount of money staked, odds from every bookmaker move constantly throughout the ante post period. Some favourite prices remain pretty static throughout, others drift in the closer to kick-off the match gets. It is the same with underdog and draw prices too, although these are intrinsically linked to movements in the favourite odds, where most of the money will be expected.

      Choose a number of high profile games and check the time stamps in Oddsportal for a whole ante post period. Hover your mouse pointer over the odds of bookmakers you are interested in to activate the pop-out odds list and then take a screenshot (separate ones needed for home, draw and away odds as they will only open independently of each other), sometimes several times per day. Slowly but surely you will build-up quite a clear and revealing picture of how the market mechanisms operate.

      You can only do this for games that haven’t yet been played, as the time stamps list is only large enough to show aound 20 odds changes at a time. Because odds move so frequently, you may find it necessary to take several screenshots per day to provide a single day’s picture, and you’ll need to do it every day until the ante post market closes. Remember also that a fortnight after the result is determined, Oddsportal curtails the odds list on each game to show just the opening and highest odds reached by the bookmaker on the outcome in question – all that important odds movement information then becomes lost.

      Carrying out the odds review exercise on several leagues will make you realise that each league is different and governed purely by its popularity (liquidity, or the weight of money staked).

      Getting to know how and why the market moves is probably the most important waste of time you can carry out during your gambling career! It will enable you to anticipate what is going to happen with prices, which is the most vital piece of information for any trader or punter in any market, anywhere.

      Ultimately, it’s all about basic economics – the simple principles of demand and supply.

      Rado, I hope this sheds more light on everything for you and thanks for the questions.

  50. Scott
    25 September 2017 at 12:30 pm #

    Is anyone else having an absolutely dismal campaign? I’m not calling the product or the concept into question btw, but this has been a tough couple of months so far..!

    • Michael
      25 September 2017 at 1:31 pm #

      Yeah. Been struggling as well. When does everyone place their bet? I read that you should be placing your bet one hour before match starts but that is hard due to life.

    • Simon
      25 September 2017 at 1:54 pm #

      Scott,

      Yes, I have struggled with results for the last 6 weeks. I’ve posted in more detail about my experience in “How we made £20k” article comments section.

      It seems for me that I have 4 systems showing heavy losses, 1 showing good profits, and the rest making a little profit or around break even. The overall result being the portfolio is in loss and just under 20% of the bank has been lost. Reluctantly I am going to have to reduce my stake amount and press on as would hate to stop betting and then see results turn around.

      Hopefully us guys that are struggling right now will see a change in fortunes sometime soon!

  51. AM0751
    25 September 2017 at 7:04 pm #

    Hi,

    Last 6 weeks have been indeed bad, so we’re all in the same boat there.

    In addition, I am struggling to find a “blanket” rule when it comes to treating the questionable bookies like Marathonbet for instance.

    Take for instance the game that is about to end right now; Cracovia-Wisla Plock.

    In the info on this site there are two rules that I can’t seem to reconcile with each other,

    My low treshold is at 3.4 for Poland underdog. Can’t be too surprising really,

    So, Odds of over 3.4 were obtainable with 3 bookies; Marathonbet, 1XBET and AsianOdds.

    I have seen that AsianOdds should be discarded, right winger, helpful as ever, pointed this out.

    So that leaves two bookies. However, it also has been stated that when in doubt, go with the market majority, and apart from the 3 bookies mentioned, all others were under the lowest inflection point, so the majority of the market would dictate I’d skip this game.

    I skipped this bet going with this rule. I could however also have gone with the other option, as the Marathonbet odds were timestamped just before kickoff, which is also a valid indicator/approach according to other comments on this site.

    I find myself doubting every time, but I think from now on I am going to go with valid timestamps (odds updated at most half an hour ago) for all bookies except AsianOdds and TempoBet. I guess the doubt right winger speaks about is when odds are updated longer than half an hour ago.

    I have re-analyzed all my systems, and I am convinced of the validity of my analysis, which as such is no guarantee at all of course, but at least my decisions have been well informed.

    However, using flat stakes, and starting from the beginning of the season, one third of the bank would have been lost right now. But there is a LOT of football still to be played.

  52. Right Winger
    25 September 2017 at 8:49 pm #

    Just a quick line or two on the Marathonbet/Tempobet/1xBet/AsianOdds issue.

    Firstly, AsianOdds are a multi-bookmaker platform, which includes Pinnacle and a few other sharp Asian books. The odds here are always going to be in line with Pinnacle as AsianOdds can’t offer higher Pinnacle odds than Pinnacle do themselves.

    If some of the other books on the AsianOdds platform are going to quote higher odds, then they will be marginally better than Pinnacle – no more than one or two ticks – rather than completely out of kilter.

    For these reasons, you can safely ignore AsianOdds when making your bet placement decisions and rely on Pinnacle instead. The time stamps on Oddsportal for AsianOdds are also likely to be less accurate than they are for Pinnacle.

    From all of the comments I have read, some people are including Marathonbet when making their decisions whilst others are avoiding them altogether. Personally speaking, if you are going to include Marathonbet, then it is always worth looking at their website for confirmation of where their odds are in relation to Oddsportal’s current reflection of those odds. Too often I have seen that the odds showing on Oddsportal are nowhere near available on Marathonbet’s site.

    Using the majority view to form bet placement decisions is definitely the route to follow. If the majority says yes, you can still place the bet with Marathonbet even if their odds are higher than your upper inflection point. If the majority says no, then avoid placing with Marathonbet or any other outlier bookie.

    This issue will be eradicated when the 2018 Summer League tables begin appearing for sale in October. The odds in all the leagues will have been individually checked and audited and will exclude all the outlier odds from Marathonbet, Tempobet, 1xBet and AsianOdds, whatever their time stamps. Hopefully this will resolve any confusion going forwards.

    I will also be publishing an article in the next few days on the checks you can perform to ensure that your systems remain viable in relation to the odds you are achieving. It will feature a piece on the Odds Toggle function within the HDAFU Tables. I will run through how to calculate the odds toggle figure and inputting it into the tables to show a simulation of what effect the strength of the odds you are buying has on the historical simulation for your chosen systems. Of course, this will provide you with a like-for-like comparison on prices, but not on hit rate.

    It has been an unusual start to the season in many leagues, but I am sure things will settle down. The chances of all leagues suffering anomolous seasons all at the same time are too small to worry about.

    I urge people to think seriously about their money management and to advise using a stop-loss trigger when things are lean. Even taking a brief pause from placing the bets and paper testing instead until things begin to pick up again is not admitting defeat.

    There may be many people running similar portfolios, but I can guarantee that no two portfolios will be exactly alike. I know from several campaigners that their systems are currently in healthy profits; others are profitable but perhaps not to the same extent. Therefore, it is maybe easy to seek consolation in numbers when things don’t go so well. I know all too well from my own experiences that doubts creep in and you become desperate for confirmation that you are doing the right thing.

    The bottom line is that if you have a healthy balance of risk throughout your portfolio, can guarantee at least 500 bets during your campaign (the more, the better), and have a set plan about bet placement and complete control over your staking plan, the overall result should be positive.

    Putting things into perspective, if a portfolio comprises ten systems, the straight chances of all ten systems having their worst performance for six seasons (the five seasons of historical results in the HDAFU table plus the current season) is 16.67% (one in six) to the power of 10 = 0.00000166%. This equates to one in 60.3 million.

    Winning the UK National Lottery by pulling six numbers from 49 carries a straight one in 13,983,816 chance. You are more than four times likelier to win the lottery than seeing ten out of ten systems record their worst performance for six seasons.

    Another example, if you ran only three systems and they all recorded their worst performance for six seasons, the chance would be 0.46324%, or one in 215.

    I’m sorry for everyone who is suffering at the moment. Things will get better. The odds of total failure are too small to worry about. To those of you who are currently enjoying success, I am very happy for you. But as they say, you can’t please all of the people all of the time.

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