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Frequently Asked Questions – Make the Most of Your HDAFU Tables


Here are the most frequently asked support questions from our customers about using the HDAFU Tables for 1X2, favourite and underdog betting.

Below you will find many answers about utilising them to the maximum of their powers to help you develop your own successful 1X2 betting system.

If you can’t find an answer to your particular question, please feel free to ask us directly using the comments section at the bottom of this page. We usually reply within 24 hours.

These FAQs are primarily for HDAFU Table owners. The questions refer to 1X2 System Betting in connection with our HDAFU Tables.

For beginners looking for a taste of the HDAFU Tables before buying or with questions such as how to check-out in the online store, then please refer to our Frequently Asked Questions – HDAFU Tables – PRE SALES.

Click on the arrows to reveal the answers.

Popular Questions

Is there a time restriction on the usefulness of the HDAFU tables?

The tables simulate the profits and losses by betting type for the last five complete seasons if choosing the same bet type for every game of the season. Therefore, the ‘natural’ cut-off point is the end of the following season when the tables have to be re-calibrated.

Simulating the profit/losses when betting on the same outcome over the last five seasons, the tables show a picture of the likely (expected) distribution for the forthcoming season.

If the bettor chooses a distribution which is equally spread over the year (e.g. underdogs in the German Bundesliga with odds between 4.0 and 17.0), then it doesn’t really matter when the systematic betting starts.

The HDAFU tables are a great help at any time throughout the season to provide focus upon profitable areas within your chosen league and allow you to refine your final bet selections.

Further reading:
Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage: Explained
Avoid Placing Bets at the Start of Season

What is the relationship between the HDAFU tables and the Value Bet Detector?

The HDAFU tables simulate profit/losses when betting systematically on one specific bet type, e.g. backing the home win, the draw, the away win, the favourite or the underdog. The Value Bet Detector is an odds and probability calculation tool for individual/particular matches of interest.

Both tools originate from the time Soccerwidow wrote match previews for Betfair and needed to identify games containing value bets for analysis. Here is a summary of those predictions.

The HDAFU tables were initially developed as a tool to recognise clusters of matches that were far more likely to contain value bets, and thus provide filtered sets of matches to preview.

We often receive questions such as, “Can the HDAFU tables and the Value Calculator support each other?” or, “What is the relevance of the HDAFU tables?” or, “Which methodology is better?”

Ultimately, both products are tools for odds calculation and understanding the betting market. The Value Bet detector is an analysis tool for individual matches; the HDAFU simulation tables is better for systematic betting in larger numbers.

The main purposes of the HDAFU tables is to identify value in bets in the long run. If you have doubts about a system or you like more accuracy, then you can use the Value Calculator to test out individual bets in your portfolio which have already been selected on the basis of the HDAFU tables. If a bet has value, both tools will discern that the bet has value.

One tool (Value Calculator) is simply more precise (but laborious to use) than the other (HDAFU Tables) but they can be used in tandem to some extent in order to sharpen the edge that you get.

For example, pick all your bets using the HDAFU tables. Then, if a particular system is doing very poorly (e.g. favourites), cross-check the bets you’ve chosen with the value calculator before placing them.

Further reading:
How do Bookmakers Tick? How & Why do they Set Their Odds as they do?
How Bookmakers’ Odds Match Public Opinion

How do I structure a portfolio and what is the best size for it?

“A portfolio is a package of bets where extensive analysis has determined the choices (picks)… This is an essential part of the whole betting strategy in order to reduce the risks of losing by diversifying.”

Now focus on the main expressions: extensive analysis… determined choices… whole betting strategy… reduce risks… and lastly… diversifying.

Actually, there is nothing more to say. Just spend some quality thinking time on it.

It totally depends on personal preferences, on the availability of betting markets to you, on your risk awareness, your understanding of probabilities and statistics, and finally, using all of this combined knowledge to make your best personal judgement, never losing sight of the fact that the bottom line is making profits.

Further reading:
Calculating Odds for League Newcomers is Unpredictable
1×2 Football Betting – How to Compile a Winning Portfolio

Are the HDAFU tables for both, back betting and lay betting?

Yes. Although the HDAFU tables directly simulate what happened from a backing perspective over the last five seasons, they are obviously reversible and provide a sound benchmark for formulating lay betting strategies.

Large positive figures and rising curves within the tables indicate promising back betting opportunities, whilst large negative falling curves point to potential lay strategies.

For example, if favourites in a particular league are vastly under-priced, then you can lay them. The underdogs in that particular league will then be over-priced, which would present a back bet strategy.

However, these two strategies cannot be mixed because in effect, you would be gambling on the same outcome, i.e., the favourite not to win.

Another thing to take into consideration when deciding whether laying or backing is that laying can only be done via exchanges and they charge commission, whilst backing can be done via a huge range of bookmakers without any commission fee. Of course, this only works if you have access to the bookmakers that regularly offer the highest prices, especially for underdogs.

Quite a bit of homework will be required in that direction before you’ll be able to make informed decisions.

The HDAFU tables come with an odds toggle as well as an exchange commission toggle so that the user can adjust the base figures where necessary – This is of great importance to those wishing to accurately analyse lay strategies.

Further reading:
1×2 Betting System: Analysis of HDA Data and Strategy Development – LAY THE DRAW
1X2 Betting System – Staking the Underdog

Why is concentrating on bet types more profitable than betting on teams?

The answer to this question is simple psychology, which often defeats the average punter.

There are millions of people who follow one or another team. They read all the news available, discuss form, players and managers, and everything else there is to think about when a match involving their team is coming up.

There are plenty of “must win” situations, and even if the odds seem a little short, bets are still placed on the team they support to win the game. Both reliance on luck and a lot of hope goes into each game.

Unfortunately, gut feelings are very often a false friend and team news also has no relevance to the ‘true odds’ of a game; little wonder that there are more losing punters than winners.

The HDAFU tables help the gambler to disconnect all emotions from betting. The figures show very plainly where to concentrate when compiling a betting system portfolio for profit.

Further reading:
Finding Betting Odds Inflection Points
Half-time Results are more Predictable than Full-time

What do you recommend to read for better understanding of the HDAFU tables?

HDAFU Tables Knowledge Base

1X2 Betting System – Staking the Underdog
How to Compile a Winning Portfolio
Finding Betting Odds Inflection Points
Odds Toggle Function

How do I get support?

You can always ask any questions via the comment functions at the bottom of any article in this blog. However, please try first to find an answer to your question using the search function on the top right. There are hundreds of articles to read and knowledge to acquire from.

If you cannot find a satisfying answer to your question, then post it in the closest corresponding article on the topic. This is free of charge for you. You will receive our answer submitted directly to your inbox, with no need for continuous checking.

In addition, if you subscribe to a post which interests you, then you will also receive questions and replies other readers have posted on the same article, and of course, our replies too.

Can I e-mail you with any questions? I would like you to check if I have chosen the right portfolio.

Please understand that we cannot provide free e-mail support. There are millions of punters in this world, all working hard to find the golden egg. The low price for the tables simply doesn’t allow us to establish a support center and employ support staff.

Therefore, please first try to find an answer to your question on our website and if you can’t, then ask your questions in the comments section at the foot of the most relevant HDAFU article you can find on the Soccerwidow site. We aim to reply within 24 hours. This service is, of course, free of charge.

However, you may prefer individual coaching; this can be done via email, Skype or even in person. Should you be interested in personalised tuition then please outline exactly what you are trying to achieve and email us for a quote: sales[at]soccerwidow[dot]com. Note that we are currently based in Tenerife.

>>> 1×2 hdafu tables user guide <<<

Trouble-shooting

I tried to post a comment on your blog yesterday and today also (several times), but every time it shows some kind of error (time out).

The problem lies with the caching of the site to speed it up for visitors. Unfortunately, this means that the Captcha is occasionally also cached and therefore it shows a “time out” message if not refreshed. The solution for that error message is to click the “refresh” button: This generates a new Captcha and the troublesome ‘Time Out’ message will then disappear.

I purchased some tables but I have not received the download link for the item.

Please check your Spam folder; sometimes our automated emails from GetDPD appear there. If you can’t find it please email to support[at]soccerwidow[dot]com, and we will get it sorted.

My download link has expired. Is a reactivation possible?

The download time limit is set to two weeks from the moment you purchase. The reason being that customers have a cancellation period of 14 days with the right of a full return as long as they haven’t downloaded the product within this period.

Therefore, if you have not downloaded your product, after a period of two weeks has expired you can either apply for a refund or send an email to support[at]soccerwidow[dot]com for a link reactivation.

However, we sometimes get reports that the download link was received straight away but after opening it, a message appears stating that the download is ‘expired’. This is usually a problem associated with your browser. Please clean your cache and press the F5 button to refresh the screen.

Another request we occasionally receive is from buyers who have lost their original product or forgotten to download it, and then many months later wish to reactivate the download link. We are really sorry, but our grace period is 6 months only. After this time a fee of £10 will be charged for us to trace you in the system and manually reactivate the purchase.

I just downloaded the tables but there seems to be a problem with opening the spreadsheets. Is there a trick?

The tables are in Excel.xlsx format and can be opened without problems by all versions of Excel from 2010 onwards, plus any open source software (e.g. Open Office) capable of handling the same requirements.


>>> case study: underdog betting <<<

Questions about the Timing of Bets

I am wondering about the season split in the leagues. When does the second half start? For example, Finland league has 12 teams and they play 33 rounds; USA has their own system with play-offs; Sweden has 30 games per team, and so on…

To answer this in full we have produced a League Calendar detailing when each league starts, when each stops (for its winter break where applicable), when each league begins its 2nd half, and when each league finishes.

In addition, you will find detailed advice as to which leagues include play-offs and which don’t.

The usual rule is if a league involves all of its teams in a play-off round where every team plays an equal number of games (i.e. without knock-out rounds) then these games are included in the system. Leagues such as the M.L.S., which has a knock-out system of play-offs, finishes so far as the HDAFU Tables are concerned at the end of the final round of league games.

The analysis on the HDAFU tables is based on the best closing odds. When is the best time to place the bets? Just before the game starts and then make a bet with the bookie who offers the highest odds?

Yes, the HDAFU data set comprises the highest odds available at the close of the ante post market, just before each of the matches started.

The optimum time to place bets is therefore in the final hour before kick-off, after team news has been released.

For a detailed summary of bet placement criteria, refer to page 5 of the HDAFU Tables User Guide article.

You advise to place bets always within the last hour before kick-off. How can that be done, especially when you also bet on MLS, Brazil, and Japan? Whole round of matches can be kicking off all night long, every 1 or 2 hours over there; and when the next day breaks it’s time for Europe… Is it ok to bet earlier than 1 hour before kick-off? Did you try to run an analysis what happens when you bet earlier than 1 hour before kick-off? For example, on the evening before the match?

Of course, if a match falls comfortably between your two inflection points, it will not matter how the odds move in the run up to kick-off, so many bets can be placed well in advance of the start of games.

Again, refer to page 5 of the HDAFU Tables User Guide article for more detailed advice.

For UK/ European Clients: Realistically I’m not going to be awake when the MLS matches are kicking off (and possibly not for the frequent 5am kick-offs in the J-League) and I’m wondering how essential it is that bets are placed close to kick-off? Would I be giving myself a problem placing MLS and some J-League bets before I went to bed (I’m UK based, so MLS bets would be going on 3 to 4 hours in advance of kick off, with J-League 5ams more like 8 hours)?

Please refer to page 5 of the HDAFU Tables User Guide article for more detailed advice on these situations.


Miscellaneous Questions

Would it help to add in more seasons to the analysis?

No, five seasons’ data are plenty. Any less, the population size becomes less significant. Any more, historical results become less relevant to today’s teams. Five seasons’ data are usually an optimum amount for any analysis.

Would it help to weight the seasons in any way?

With just five seasons’ data in use, it makes more sense to compare apples with apples rather than dilute the results with some form of weighting mechanism.

Ideally, it is preferable to see if there has been an anomalous season during the last five, because there is always the likelihood of repetition.

If the seasons analysed have been ‘smoothed’ by any weighting criteria it is likely that the worst case scenario will no longer be evident, or at least shown only in a watered down form.

What do you recommend as the starting bank for a cycle with £100 per bet?

This really depends upon the longest losing streak you expect to endure over the course of your campaign.

We have operated with just £2,000 as a starting bank for £100 stakes, during a season where the portfolio was almost constantly in profit. But we cannot provide recommendations as everyone’s portfolio of bets (and expected winning/losing streaks) will be different.

Do you think this would work using only an exchange – Betfair – for placing bets?

Yes, of course. But to simulate the effects of betting exchange commission on the expected results, you will need to enter a commission rate percentage at the top of each bet type in the data tab of the HDAFU Tables when carrying out your analyses. This type of system betting would also be ideal for betting bots and other automated bet placing software.

When you really start to make some money, I read on the Internet that the gambling offices limit your bets or start to do difficult. Is that true?

Yes, this is unfortunately sometimes the case, but sharp bookmakers such as Pinnacle, and betting exchanges such as Betfair, Smarkets and Matchbook, will never limit or close your accounts.

I have a tricky question: what happens if “a lot of users” start to use these methods at the same time, finding the same spots for an eventual profit? Wouldn’t these strategies start to become obsolete?

Because the choice is yours and because there are usually several different strategies to opt for in many of the leagues, it is unlikely that any two people will have exactly the same portfolios. It is also unlikely that people will be using the same stakes.

Therefore, irregular betting patterns really shouldn’t be an issue as far as the bookmakers are concerned.


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Last Update: 20 April 2018

Categories:1x2 Betting Betting Systems



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