HT/FT – Betting on Equally Matched Teams – Theory

Here is the final selection of 10 fixtures:

System X1 Table of final selections

Now to carry out the task of computing and calculating the weighted stakes which are necessary to guarantee the same profit/loss regardless of which bets win or lose.

You should always keep your betting bank in mind and stakes should ideally be weighted for equal risk/return whichever ‘system’ you decide to play. If the same amount (e.g. £10 GBP) is placed on each game (a fixed stake/variable win staking plan) then it becomes harder to recoup the stakes of the lost bets if only the bets with the lowest odds win (i.e. the ones most likely to win).

The following table shows the calculation of the individual weighted stakes engineered to return the same amount whichever bet wins:

System X1 Table showing weighted stake calculations for each selection

The results of the weighted stakes shown above will be as follows:

  1. No bet wins = loss: -£100.00 (total loss of the whole stake)
  2. Only one of the 10 bets wins = loss: -£46.65
  3. Two bets win = profit: +£6.70
  4. Three bets win = profit: +£60.05

For the mathematicians amongst you, here are the formulas for calculating the weighting:

Formula for Weighting:

∑ Odds / Odds = Ratio (Weighting)

Formula for Calculating the Stakes:

Total Bank for betting on this event / ∑ Ratios (Weighting) 
x Odds = Stake


This system can surely be varied, for example, by selecting the correct half-time score of 0-0 and combining it with the home win. There is also another, very similar system described in the Internet, called “System 11” which is based on the home/home HT/FT combination.

However, it is important to stick to one system for a while. Jumping from one to another leads to not having enough data for observation and thorough analysis. In my opinion, discipline is the main requirement to succeed in betting. If all gamblers were disciplined, bookmakers would have less of an easy ride and many more than the estimate of just 1% of all regular gamblers would actually make a full-time living from betting.

Go Forwards To:

learn to think like a bookmaker!
deciphering bookmaker mathematics

Last Update: 15 January 2011

Categories:Case Studies

8 Responses to “HT/FT – Betting on Equally Matched Teams – Theory”

  1. Antonio
    3 December 2012 at 5:47 am #

    Interesting stuff.i wasn’t aware of this,I must say.On another thread I mention a friend who is very successful betting on overs .He also manages to profit from betting on HT-FT markets at the very high 1 2 or 2 1 prices.

    I hate him.

  2. lukas
    31 January 2013 at 2:46 pm #

    Thanx its a great idea ..will try it out

  3. Marco
    18 April 2016 at 6:36 pm #

    Can you show me how did you calculate the stakes distibution using this formula:
    Total Bank for betting on this event / ∑ Ratios (Weighting)
    x Odds = Stake

    • Soccerwidow
      22 April 2016 at 11:34 am #

      Hi Marco, I’m going to address your question (and others) within a series of articles about maths. You are not the only one who asks. These questions pop up all the time, other people even asking what a ∑-Symbol means.

      Unfortunately, I cannot promise how quick, but it’s on my current to-do-list. 🙂

  4. Onesimus
    23 November 2016 at 9:42 pm #

    Calculating price difference?

    • Soccerwidow
      24 November 2016 at 7:33 am #

      What do you mean? Please can you rephrase your question?

  5. André
    6 January 2017 at 11:21 pm #

    This is very interesting indeed! I just want to ask you how to you calculate the stakes using the formula , because im not finding the value that its presented

    • Soccerwidow
      8 January 2017 at 8:41 pm #

      Formula for Weighting:

      ∑ Odds / Odds = Ratio (Weighting)

      Formula for Calculating the Stakes:

      Total Bank for betting on this event / ∑ Ratios (Weighting) x Odds = Stake

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