To select the final 10 fixtures I first looked at the individual odds in each game for the draw/home HT/FT result. The following is an example screenshot from the Ladbrokes site:
These data are now collated in tabular form:
Next, I needed to select my final 10 matches and here are my reasons for omitting the four surplus games:
- Tottenham vs. Manchester United: since United are one of the top teams in Europe and there is always a good chance they will avoid defeat away from home (especially against Tottenham in recent years), I decided to take them out.
This left three games to discard. The Premier League, Championship, League One and League Two looked fairly evenly populated to me. However in the FA Trophy there were five fixtures. As cup football is more unpredictable than league football I decided to remove the three fixtures with the lowest odds:
- Droylsden vs. Ebbsfleet
- Alfreton Town vs. Cambridge
- Mansfield vs. Newport