Something Fishy in Germany Again!
If the prognosis of scientists from the International School of Management (ISM) in Frankfurt and the German Sport University Cologne is to be believed, then Euro 2012 will be nothing more than a re-run of the 2008 finals, with few surprises along the way.
According to the results of their statistical analyses, co-hosts Poland will make it to the semi-finals, but Netherlands will fail in the group phase. England’s chances rely on victory over Sweden to reach the quarter-finals on goal difference.
Of course, without any bias whatsoever the German scientists have predicted their countrymen to reach the final and beat Spain to claim the title.
Prediction: Germany will beat Spain in the Euro 2012 final
Of the 24 group games, there are only 7 matches with big favorites, and 17 matches between more well-matched teams. Of these 17 games, the underdogs will prevail in 7.
Among the 17 more balanced encounters there are three key matches:
Poland against Russia (victory Poland)
Portugal against Netherlands (victory Portugal)
France against England (victory France)
There will be a surprise in the match between England and Ukraine (only a draw), but England will qualify for the quarter-finals due to a better goal difference.
The top two in each group from the simulation are Poland & Russia, Germany & Portugal, Spain & Italy, and France & England.
The quarter-finals are less spectacular:
Germany knock-out Russia and Spain beat England. France get lucky and narrowly defeat Italy.
Brave Poland finally meet their match against Spain. Germany beat France, but this match will probably be the tightest game of the tournament.
Final heartbreak for holders:
Germany get lucky and beat Spain.
What Value this Prognosis?
This is a statistical simulation, and as with all such predictions, pretty clear statements of the likely outcome are often produced, but particular events (i.e. individual matches) do not necessarily comply with the bigger picture.
Unfortunately the report does not specify the expected probabilities (expectations) for each individual event and only presents the final findings. Of course, there is the chance that the scientists will get lucky and every match will enter the history books exactly as predicted in the simulation, but this is probably just wishful thinking!
How do the betting odds compare? It can certainly be expected that some of the predictions from Cologne and Frankfurt will happen exactly as predicted, but not all. Also, do the market odds contain enough value to make it worthwhile following the forecast? Again, this is left up to the reader.
It is however interesting to follow such predictions, which must have been time-consuming to compile. We have therefore added a little to the analysis by checking the odds and bets on the forecasts. The 1st July will be the day of reckoning!
You’ll need a good staking plan if you wish to follow the German scientists’ predictions and it is also important to follow through with all their forecasts rather than cherry-picking (this is always important when betting on statistical predictions).
Good luck with your Euro 2012 betting, and don’t forget that your family may not care so much for football as you do. Please find some time for your loved ones in between the excitement of what is considered to be the best quality international football tournament in the world…