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2018 Summer League HDAFU Tables


Please note that this is an archived post. We decided not to remove it from the site because of the many questions and answers in the comments section. For those of you with curious minds it may also be quite interesting to see how our HDAFU Tables have developed over the years.

Here’s the link to the new sales page: HDAFU Inflection Points Tables


The 6th Generation of HDAFU Tables

We had a breakthrough in our thinking last year so we experimented with the idea.

Knowing from experience that the first and second halves of a football match are usually played in very different circumstances, we extended the idea to leagues as a whole.

Analysing a season’s results (or a set of them together) naturally gives only a blend of what has happened during the whole season. Splitting the analysis into halves makes far more sense. After all, so many leagues have winter breaks, or mid season intervals, and many of those leagues without a recognised break have a natural break in their programmes. The break is so long in certain leagues (e.g. Russia) that their season might just as well be two separate seasons.

We therefore decided to split the HDAFU tables (Home-Draw-Away-Favourites-Underdogs) into three separate tables per league. One showing the five season whole season picture, the next showing the first half season results (before the break), and the last showing the second half season results (after the break).

The results were staggering and showed quite clearly the distinctive trends of each half season as opposed to the whole season blend. We decided to put our theory to the test and embarked on what turned out to be a hugely successful betting campaign.

2018 Summer League Standard Deviation Adjustment Figures

For more accuracy with this year’s tables, we have introduced standard deviation adjustments together with an instruction manual. These adjustments will be automatic in the next round of tables.

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What You Now Get for Your Money

Instead of the usual one HDAFU table per league, you now get three.

However, the price per league is still sensible at £35.00 each. (Effectively £11.67 per table).

The new style tables presented here are also optimised for filtering.

Our recommendation is for a set of systems in several leagues, enough to provide you with a portfolio of at least 500 bets in a season. You’ll then have a chance of emulating our 2016 campaign.

HDA Betting: Profit/Loss Simulation Tables
PRODUCT SUMMARY

  • Format: Excel .XLSX (compatible with Excel 2007 and higher, LibreOffice, Google Sheets, OpenOffice, etc.)
  • File Size: between 1.70 MB and 3.17 MB each
  • Publisher: Soccerwidow Ltd; 6th revised edition
  • Simulations within each Workbook: Home Win, Draw, Away Win, Favourite & Underdog, plus a breakdown of individual teams’ performance in each bet type from both a home and away perspective.
  • Language: ENGLISH

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Customer Comment

I have recently purchased some HDA tables which I have to say are simply excellent.
They have certainly opened my eyes to areas I had never considered before.

Studying them fully will take me a while but I used some insights gained from them on a few
games at the weekend and again, I have to say that I am very impressed with the product.

Hector


Last Update: 25 December 2017

Categories:1x2 Betting Betting Systems



45 Responses to “2018 Summer League HDAFU Tables”

  1. jo
    15 June 2018 at 1:33 pm #

    Hi Simon,

    for some reason I don’t have “Reply” button and can’t reply directly to your 10 June 2018 at 7:02 pm comment, so I will reply here.

    Yesterday I finished my 15th betting week and I didn’t ever have more disastrous week as this one: 21 bets and just 1 win. My stakes were already reduced quite a lot since portfolio is losing, another big reduction will be made if I don’t stop doing this at all. 3 more weeks like this and I will be “betting” 0 unit stakes. I’m -3900 down, last 3 weeks were very bad, lost 2000 and with already significantly reduced stakes.
    We were all losing with winter portfolios, it seems we are all losing again and I don’t see any mistakes to blame. I placed every bet I had to, and everything is going down. It’s the volatility this system seems to have little resistance against. And compared with winter, this summer is performing significantly worse. Summer’s highest profit (+650) was 5 times lower so far compared to poor winter season (+3600) and to get this low (-3900) “required” 280 bets compared to winters 380 bets.

    • Soccerwidow
      15 June 2018 at 2:16 pm #

      Hi Jo and everybody else,

      can you please share the number of systems you are playing at the same time with the expected Hit Rate, expected Yield and number of bets each round.

      Some list like this example:
      (1) expected hit rate: 18%; expected yield: 38%; expected number of bets each week: 5
      (2) expected hit rate: 52%; expected yield: 24%; expected number of bets each week: 3
      and so on…

      I’m currently in the process of preparing an article about the variation of winning and losing streaks when playing systems with too many systems that contain low hit rates (probabilities of winning) and it would be very nice to have a few real life examples to base the article upon. No need to give away the system, or the league.

      It’s all about risk diversification and as I’m also currently substantially upgrading the HDAFU tables to get them ready for sale before the Winter Leagues kick off again, it would be also very useful to know on what I should concentrate on to help you guys to find more reliable systems in the future that are less nerve wracking. Therefore feel free to make suggestions what you would like to see in the upgraded tables.

      Best wishes,
      Soccerwidow

      • Simon
        15 June 2018 at 10:42 pm #

        Jo,

        My experience is much like yours. Now the world cup is upon us and the summer leagues are for the most part on a break, I think I am going to accept the losses incurred and cease with the summer campaign. I have to be honest the kick off times are pretty hard to work around and I really don’t want to continue with it. My plan is to really focus on taking my experience of the past 2 campaigns and put that knowledge to use in compiling a good 2018-19 winter leagues campaign. Waking up mega early for asian leagues, or staying up little later for MLS is no good, especially when its lose, lose lose. So I live and learn as they say.

        • Soccerwidow
          16 June 2018 at 6:38 am #

          Hi Simon,

          to get around of having to place the bets to unmanly hours the upgraded HDAFU Tables will introduce the HO/AO quotient to chose bets; this will allow to compile a portfolio by quotient (perceived strength of the teams) instead by highest odds and thus, allow to place bets the evening before the match without having to sit in front of the screen in the hour before kick off. Another option is of course, using a bot but this requires quite a bit of programming and getting your head round bots.

      • simon
        15 June 2018 at 10:59 pm #

        Hi Soccerwidow,

        Thanks for getting back to us.

        My summer league campaign was based on using all 9 tables on sale. So through my analysis I chose 1 whole season system, 8 1st half systems, and 8 2nd half systems.

        I will list the systems as you described for the current ones in operation.:

        1) Underdog 40.38%, 23.55%, 2.26
        2) Underdog 41.88% 32.26%, 1.88
        3) Underdog 40.91% 98.18%, 1
        4) Away Win: 44.73%, 15.88%, 2.6
        5) Away Win: 48.09%, 24.43%, 4
        6) Home Win: 55.40%, 17.25%, 1.9
        7) Draw: 45.95%, 45.68%, 1
        8) Favourite: 55.14%, 24.70%, 1
        9) Home Win: 46.4%, 17.59%, 4

        As you can see, average hit rate across the 9 leagues is 46.5%. The actual hit rate to date is approx 34%.

        If it helps, I can send you by email the spreadsheet I use to keep a record. It’s basically the spreadsheet you gave out for free in the summer league article a while back. That way you can see exactly what systems I chose, and all the details for each one. Let me know.

        • Soccerwidow
          17 June 2018 at 7:28 am #

          Hi Simon,

          thanks for sharing your figures. According to the data you provided your system has an average expected hit rate of 46.41% with an expected Yield of 26.71%.

          I emailed to you a spreadsheet that simulates all kind of probable outcomes. In that you’ll see that the sequence changes every time you press the F9 button, sometimes with a very good start but unfortunately also often with a painfully long losing sequence at the start. That should help you hopefully to sit through losing sequences better and not abandon a sound system too early.

          I’m in the process of writing an article about that topic in due course explaining a little bit more random sequences.

      • jo
        15 June 2018 at 11:42 pm #

        Hi Soccerwidow,

        1. Expected hit rate: 25.24%; expected yield: 50.07%; expected number of bets each week: 1.61
        2. Expected hit rate: 41.88%; expected yield: 32.26%; expected number of bets each week: 2
        3. Expected hit rate: 30.93%; expected yield: 54.02%; expected number of bets each week: 1.72
        4. Expected hit rate: 26.14%; expected yield: 77.99%; expected number of bets each week: 0.51
        5. Expected hit rate: 55.4%; expected yield: 17.25%; expected number of bets each week: 1.67
        6. Expected hit rate: 42.51%; expected yield: 34.73%; expected number of bets each week: 1.1
        7. Expected hit rate: 31.53%; expected yield: 37.17%; expected number of bets each week: 1.32
        8. Expected hit rate: 45.47%; expected yield: 15.45%; expected number of bets each week: 3.66

        Average number of bets per week adds up to 13.59, but usually it’s around 20 bets per week.

        HDAFU tables needs more accuracy and less volatility. Systems that looked perfect – even number of bets, stable hit rate etc. fail badly out of the blue. Is it possible to foresee that? Based on my current summer and former winter HDAFU experience it’s hard to say that low odds systems are less risky than high odds systems. If they win anything, the amount they win provides very little support for the whole portfolio, and if they perform poorly, they recover very slowly due to low odds range. I doubt if they are worth the risk. Currently, I have no support whatsoever form low odds systems, their combined result is a loss. My current hit rate is 26%, predicted average is 42%. I would break even with hit rate of 31%. Just 5% makes a massive difference. Can you improve HDAFU accuracy by 10%? Because I want to win something…

        Let us know how your summer systems are going?

        • Soccerwidow
          17 June 2018 at 7:42 am #

          Hi Jo,

          Thanks you for sharing your figures. According to the data you provided your system has an average expected hit rate of 39.61% with an expected Yield of 33.15%.

          If you compare your system with Simon’s figures you’ll see that you have an higher expected yield but a lower expected hit rate. A higher yield means higher risk. Unfortunately, results of bets don’t line up in a nice, easy on the nerves, order and for you that means that you are more likely than Simon to have to sit through longer losing sequences.

          What staking plan are you using? Are you betting with flat stakes or do you distinguish between your most volatile system that has an expected hit rate of 25.24% and your less volatile system that has an expected hit rate of 55.4% within your portfolio of bets?

          • jo
            19 June 2018 at 6:03 pm #

            Hi Soccerwidow,

            I use ratchet-stop loss staking plan for the whole portfolio. Currently I have only 1 system in profit and that is not a low risk system. Everything else is a loss and overall result is a really heavy loss. The problem is lower risk systems are performing badly all together like in winter and since I do this for the 3rd season I start doubting if they are really worth the trouble…

  2. Simon
    27 May 2018 at 6:21 pm #

    Hi Guys,

    Haven’t heard any feedback from those of you who are involved in a summer league campaign. How are you guys faring?

    My story is much the same as the start of the winter league campaign in which it was week after week after week of losing until the point where I gave up for paper testing – at which point it actually started winning money (just my luck – I always seem to lose when real money is at stake!)

    As it stands my portfolio is running at a loss of 15 units of profit. The hit rate is again the main and sole factor for the losses. It’s a good 10% below the average forecast hit rate. In fact, with 9 systems running this first half, only 2 are in profit, and that profit is about equal to the stake size.

    14 weeks into the campaign and I am seeing time and time again that any time a little forward progress is made, its immediately followed by a regression that sees me slip even further into the hole. 3 weeks ago I was 16 units of profit down and had a great week and half following that which reduced the deficit to just 1 unit of profit. The last week and a half has seen the hit rate completely nose dive and send me right back into to major losses.

    As I say, just cannot get any traction and keep slipping back and back and back and back……

    • jo
      27 May 2018 at 11:18 pm #

      Hi Simon,

      my portfolio has no better news than yours. winning strategies are just about the size of the stake. 3 winning weeks out of 12, hit rate is just 28% out of 42% forecast. At this time a year ago I was about to jump from negative balance to positive and had stable climb up since then all the way to the end of the season, this time it’s nothing like that and I’m stably going down from 98th bet. I have placed 232 bets in total. Highest balance was +656 units, now I’m -2300 units. And I have a strategy that is -1700 units down, its longest losing streak over 5 years was 11 bets, at the moment it has 19 and still counting… Its hit rate was pretty stable over 5 last seasons, all of them in profit, 4 out of 5 in 4 figures and this kind of performance deterioration is literally out of the blue. Had I chosen something else, maybe it wouldn’t be so bad, one single strategy ruined my situation really badly. I’m in this kind of situation for a while again: should i stop this strategy? but what if the next bet wins? So, I keep placing bets on it, and what I get is another loss…
      This weekend is almost 500 units loss, and this week is almost certainly a loss.

      • Simon
        28 May 2018 at 12:58 pm #

        Jo,

        Sorry to hear your campaign isn’t faring too well either.

        I know with my just concluded winter campaign that in hindsight the decision to stop betting and instead paper test was the wrong decision – because even after 11 straight losing weeks and a maximum deficit of 35 units (£3500), it bounced back to end up with a profit of £5800. So I know that I left a LOT of money on the table and for that I’m kicking myself. The point being if one can just shut off emotion and not be affected by seeing money disappear, in theory they can ride out losing streaks and come out the other side with a profit.

        Here, with the summer league, with that experience in hand, I’m seeing a similar scenario unfold, in which I’m steadily sliding further and further back into losses. The last 2 weeks have been so bad and at this point my losses are 19 units/£1900. This is after 36% of the forecasted number of bets have been placed. The hit rate is actually 12% lower than the forecast. 2 of the nine 1st half systems have already concluded and are losers. The remaining 1st half systems that are losing have almost run their course too, so I’m potentially facing having almost all my 1st half systems end up losing. That leaves me needing all the 2nd half systems of which their are 9 also, to win to claw back the losses.

        I remember RW pointing out that for a system to record its worst result in its 6th season, the percentage chance is 16%. Now on the basis that most of my systems were 5 out of 5 seasons with profit, if all my 9 systems do end up losing, then they will record their worst season in the last 6…we are talking lottery winning percentages here. Surely all 9 of my 1st systems will not lose. If they do, I’m one unlucky guy!

        I’m in the quandary again of saying “Well, this is heading south real quick with no glimmer of hope, do I just pull the plug?”

        Or, “Do I hang in there, write off the 1st half of the season and hope that the 2nd half salvages some losses?”

        Logic tells me….I paper tested through to the end of a 1300 bet portfolio and it won £5800. Yes it was volatile, and yes it was a rollercoaster ride, but it did settle down, and it did end up making a profit. I guess I just need to continue placing the bets and try to put aside the worry and negativity that stems from long time losing streaks.

        • jo
          28 May 2018 at 4:22 pm #

          Simon,

          pretty much same story regarding my winter campaign. Instead of making 2700 profit, I ended with 2000 deficit and can only blame myself. Volatile performance broke my nerves and I started doing mistakes that were very costly. it appears this summer will be no easy going, but I think I will run everything as I’m supposed to no matter what, it’s hard to accept that I failed winter portfolio, but not portfolio failed me and I don’t want to repeat that again. Last winter looked very bad, I had no hopes for any profit, but it made it. Thats a reason not to worry about this summer too much, it must be fine in the end.

          • Simon
            10 June 2018 at 7:02 pm #

            Jo

            Update on my progress.

            Hit rate has plummeted over the last 3 round; of the last 49 bets, just 11 have won. 1 bet out of the last 15 has won – that pretty disastrous.

            Prior to the 49 bet stretch I had got back to breaking even, but this brutal stretch has left me running at a loss of £2700 based on £100 per bet.

            Suffice to say I’m pretty despondent about the situation and very frustrated that yet again – as per my winter campaign – the hit rates across the board is much much lower than the forecasted amount. The hit rate is 13% lower than forecast.

            I’ve looked at everything to see if there are places where I’m making mistakes. I can’t see any. I’m not missing any betting opportunities, and am placing bets within 5 to 10 minutes prior to kick off, so I’m not getting bets included that shouldn’t be. I’m using pinnacle and marathon bet for my bets, so I’m getting the best odds on the market in most cases.

            I wonder if there is some error I’m making in constructing my portfolio that results in this crazy volatility where the hit rate just drops to ridiculously low levels. All the systems I chose made good profits, win at least 4 of 5 seasons, show consistent hit rates, good number of betting opportunities e.t.c.

            Is it just a case of bad luck that all my systems are losing at the same time? Is it just a case of me having to stick to my money management plan and hope that with a properly allocated bankroll that I can recover from this? It always seems that when you get a disaster like this occurring that the whole venture is doomed to fail.

            Ironically as mentioned, while putting real money on the winter campaign games, I lost every week for 11 weeks. As soon as I stopped betting real money, the systems began recovering and started winning again. That experience makes me loathe to drop out again, but obviously I’m not happy with losing a lot of money in a short space of time. Seems I lose when real money is on the line, but paper testing produces amazing results….go figure!

  3. Scott
    14 February 2018 at 11:52 am #

    I had wondered about this myself but I wasn’t a dedicated enough detective to properly look into it. Fair play to Jo for doing so and to RW for the comprehensive response!

  4. jo
    13 February 2018 at 9:35 pm #

    Having erratic winter season at its best, I was not sure if I will go for 2018 summer season. With its start right on the nose, I decided to give it a try. Today, while doing data filtering I discovered one thing that appears to me a serious flaw of how historical odds are collected for HDAFU. The league in concern is Swedish Allsvenskan, but I’m sure it’s gonna be the same with any other league. I expected odds are collected this way: once the 6th season is over, data of the oldest season is deleted and the data of the last season is added to the remaining 4 seasons. Nothing changes in those 4 older seasons that are still relevant for the next season.

    Right Winger, why HDAFU tables are completely redone for all 5 seasons every year with significant changes instead of deleting data of last, no longer relevant season and adding data of last fresh season? How do these changes in odds and number of matches come up? The odds range of 5.29-6.25 dog was profitable in 2012-2016 and fine to bet in 2017, but for 2018 season this strategy “failed” because different data was taken into analysis, not because dog teams failed to win often enough. Relying on 2012-2016 and performance of 2017 season strategy was profitable 6 seasons in a row, relying on 2013-2017 HDAFU just 3 recent seasons were profitable. Quite a difference!

    I sincerely hope I missed something and I’m wrong, but I’m afraid I missed nothing!

    • Simon
      14 February 2018 at 12:24 am #

      Jo,

      I read all of your post, and theres definitely a lot of information to digest. It’s a very interesting discovery you have made and hopefully RW can clear this up.

      If I understand you correctly, you are saying that in the 2017 summer league tables, the 5 season data set is comprised of data from seasons 2012-2016. Then in the 2018 tables, the 2012 data is dropped and we now have data from seasons 2013-17. However, looking at say the 2013 data set in both the 2017 and 2018 tables, the data differs, and that applies to the other seasons too, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017. So, for example, in any given year, the same game is showing up with different odds depending on the table you are looking at, and this is happening multiple times with other games. Am I following you correctly?

      From all the reading I had done on the website articles and the blog I was of the understanding that prior to compiling the latest HDAFU tables, the “most recent” seasons odds were scraped from odds portal, verified and checked for accuracy before being used in said tables. I assumed it would only be done for the latest season as why would it need to be done for prior seasons if the checking and verifying had already been done. It seems to me to be unnecessary to repeat what has already been done. But then how can odds data differ for specific identical matches across different editions of the tables?

      If one seasons odds are dropped and then the latest 5 seasons taken into account, why would all 5 of those seasons matches and odds need to be re-scraped, checked and verified again? Why not just add the latest seasons odds to the other 4 seasons that are already in existence. Surely this would be the most consistent way?

      So if what Jo has highlighted is correct, as I can’t check this myself as I don’t have last seasons summer league tables to compare to, what would be the reason for obtaining a whole new 5 season data set? Also, as JO is suggesting, the same matches in one table are showing different odds than in another, why are they different? Does odds portal change the historical odds? I recall at one point there being mention of odds portal dropping bookmakers from the panel as time goes on, so comparing odds obtained a few years ago with odds obtained now for the same matches, may indeed show different highest odds. This would of course affect whether a strategy looks viable now as compared to back then.

      So I’m confused as to the validity of JO’s discovery and whether this is going to negatively affect us going forward.

      I would really appreciate this issue being cleared up.

      Thanks.

      • jo
        14 February 2018 at 3:01 am #

        Hi Simon,

        regarding odds, yes, you follow me correctly. But that does not repeat with every match, in my example I provided with 2013 season there are 4 identical matches (same dates, same teams) in both tables that have slightly different odds.
        Also, slightly different odds for the same match can mean match from 12-16 table, lets say, 2014 season, which is still relevant for 13-17 table, dissappears in 13-17 table in same specific odds range. And another match of 2014 season that is present in 13-17 table may not be present in 12-16 table in that same odds range, because its odds are a bit different, it “moved” out to another odds range. This kind of match “traveling” can and will affect results from little to serious.

        You said: “I assumed it would only be done for the latest season as why would it need to be done for prior seasons if the checking and verifying had already been done. It seems to me to be unnecessary to repeat what has already been done. But then how can odds data differ for specific identical matches across different editions of the tables?”

        That’s what I’m asking Right Winger’s, why to waste your time to scrape odds from 0 for all 5 seasons, check them and etc. instead of deleting the oldest season and adding the newest one? The source of problem lies here in my opinion: since the odds and number of matches differ in both tables, it could be something wrong with oddsportal, the odds maybe change in its database over time. Or, the problem is with checking and verifying odds – their decisions and opinion what are correct odds for particular match may be slightly different after 2, 3 or 5 years. And that “slightly” different can make a huge difference as it is with Allsvenskan underdog in my case. Or maybe issue lies in both of them?

        After this discovery I finished filtering Allsvenskan odds I was interested in and moved on Veikkausliiga. And guess what? You’re right – I made identical discovery. This time discrepancies did not make strategy to fail, although there are significant differences in strategies performance, but both discoveries have same issues in common.

        This flaw should affect our results, in the first case it ruined valid odds range, valid system, in the second case, it didn’t. I spent several hours to recheck Allsvenskan discovery in disbelief and to explain in my comment everything. So, just short example for Veikkausliiga: profit in 2012-2016 hdafu of 2016 season was 1139. Profit of 2016 season in 2013-2017 hdafu is 2736 units. This is massive. Overall profit of 5 seasons is 5451 units in 12-16 table and 5518 units in 13-17 table.

        Such differences will definitely affect us. Tables worked for me last summer season with this flaw, but in the long run we will probably win less with it than without it. If we win at all (knock knock)!

        I don’t promise anything, since I can’t wait to see how Right Winger will explain this, but I will probably email relevant excel sheets to anyone interested so you can check on your own, since this is really serious in my opinion. It will either be amended HDAFU copies left with relevant data only and unusable so no one gets usable table for free. In case amendments will corrupt relevant data I will compile fresh excel sheets with data needed. I hope Right Winger is fine with that?

        I’m pretty sure I will find something like this in other leagues too.

    • Right Winger
      14 February 2018 at 3:23 am #

      Hi Jo and Simon,

      Yes, you will find that I have been through every set of odds on Oddsportal for every single game in each league offered for sale and corrected everything manually for all five seasons.

      Previously, we were indentifying definite errors by looking at overround figures and adjusting where we could see was necessary.

      There are so many problems with Oddsportal now that I have had no choice but to wipe the slate clean and look at every game individually.

      For example, Asian Odds, a newcomer to the Oddsportal compulsory list has whole tranches of odds the wrong way round, which throws out wildly Oddsportal’s statements of what are the highest and what are the average odds. The away odds were shown as the draw odds and vice versa. An absolute total mess and a hugely time consuming job to correct everything according to time stamps.

      The problem with Oddsportal is that they are the only free resource offering time-stamped odds, but they are only interested in affiliate sign-ups to their bookmaker portfolio, rather than providing any worthwhile resource for punters.

      However, I suspect that the majority of punters using Oddsportal for historical odds do not even realise there are problems, let alone possess the experience to identify the different types of problems before correcting them.

      Once the extent of the job in hand became apparent I was able to correct at the rate of 60-85 matches per hour, so you can work out for yourselves just how long this took for the nine leagues on offer.

      The 2018 tables, including the standard deviation adjustments, should therefore be the most accurate we’ve ever produced. When I saw each season’s final overround figures so much closer together, season after season, I knew that it was a good job well done, and very worthwhile.

      Personally, I’m excited to see what happens with the summer leagues this season. It was good last year, so let’s cross our fingers and hope for an even better performance this year.

      Sorry you’ve spent so much time writing these comments. I still owe a couple of articles and an upgrade to the User Guide to incorporate the new features in the tables, but this should be done before the end of the week.

      And sorry Jo, I’ve had to cut some of your comment above as it is giving too much away to other people for free. I hope you will understand. (I have copied and saved the rest of your script if there is anything you wish to discuss for reinclusion – don’t worry, I haven’t deleted it totally!).

      All the best for now.

      • Simon
        14 February 2018 at 10:07 am #

        RW,

        Thanks for clearing this issue up. It did seem to me upon reading Jo’s comments that the most likely reason for his discovery was that all the odds for 5 seasons had been checked again. But of course due to the time involvements in doing so I thought maybe it could be something else at play. But as it turns out you did indeed re-check all the odds, a very painstaking and laborious task indeed.

        I have to say it’s commendable and very reassuring to me that you go to great lengths to provide such a quality and accurate product here, that improves each year.

        Thanks for all you do to help us out.

      • jo
        14 February 2018 at 2:22 pm #

        Hi RW,

        sorry for revealing too much than you can accept, but I honestly thought I have to do it to make things clear. It seems I was lucky with Swedish underdog as it was not so trustworthy to bet on as it appeared.

        What season from did you start to check and verify odds for every match individually both for winter and summer leagues?

        And don’t forget you owe me a response by email on other request, it’s not urgent case, so do it when you have time. Thank you.

        • Right Winger
          14 February 2018 at 8:59 pm #

          Hi Jo,

          For the summer leagues, you now know that the five seasons studied in the simulations, 2013-2017, are the first with 100% checked odds.

          Once 2018 is over, I shall add the odds to the list – 2013 will drop out – and the 2019 simulation will comprise the five seasons, 2014-2018.

          The data for 2014-2017 will remain unchanged for the 2019 summer league tables. I hope this is clear.

          The current winter league odds will also see a total overhaul at the end of the season so that they are on a par with how the summer league odds are collected.

          However, here, several leagues already benefit from having had all their odds checked: EPL, Australia, Greece, and a few others – I would have to check and come back to you.

          Regarding your private mail, I’ll reply later this evening.

          • jo
            19 May 2018 at 5:24 pm #

            Hi Right Winger,

            can you let me know which leagues of winter 2017-2018 season had their odds collected individually for each match?? Season is about to end, I’m checking results and I think it may be useful to know this. Thanks

          • Right Winger
            22 May 2018 at 10:02 pm #

            Jo,

            Regarding your question of 19 May 2018, sorry, but no time right now to check back and find out what was what last year – GDPR compliance has overwhelmed everything we are doing right now.

            I’ll come back to you next week, but feel free to remind me if I’m later than another seven days.

            Sorry, we have to comply with GDPR or face shutting down the sites temporarily until we are compliant, which is more of an issue with our German sister site, Fussballwitwe. German lawyers are just great at trawling the net to see if they can make a few easy bucks…

  5. Vlad Balanescu
    26 December 2017 at 3:08 pm #

    Hello. I was considering testing a few of these tables. My problem is I can only use Betfair exchange and not bookmakers. From what I read in the comments the odds mentioned in the tables are takes 15 minutes or just before kick-off. I wanted to ask what bookmaker these odds have been taken from. Thank you very much.

    • Right Winger
      26 December 2017 at 11:07 pm #

      Hello Vlad,

      The odds are taken from a range of bookmakers, but the ones that feature most often with the highest recorded odds are: Pinnacle, 5Dimes, Betvictor, Bet365, 188Bet, Dafabet, SBOBET.

      The tables have a feature included in them to set toggle figures for exchange commission and also to enhance the odds by as much as you want to replicate the experience you have with Betfair.

      Generally speaking, it is only necessary to raise the odds by one or two ticks across the board. The ‘Notes’ tab of each HDAFU table carries instructions on how to do this.

      I hope this helps and thanks for your comment.

  6. Scott
    16 December 2017 at 9:42 am #

    Hi Robert

    Thanks again for the sheets, I’m enjoying getting back into the analysis. I had a few questions, if you don’t mind:

    1. For one of the leagues, I’ve been looking at home wins as a clear winner in terms of strategy. However, I noticed that there’s actually a more profitable approach to be taken if you look at home wins on a H1/H2 basis, rather than as a whole season – i.e. the most profitable odds range shifts from one half season to the next. Is there any reason not to adopt this half on half approach in place of trying to create a one size fits all whole season approach, even though the overall strategy (back home team) doesn’t change.

    2. The addition of the harmonic mean table is interesting as it gives a better indication as to the level of risk taken on by the strategy. If I was to land on a portfolio of strategies across the 9 leagues, could I take all of the matches selected, drop them into one sheet and apply the same analysis to come up with a harmonic mean for the entire portfolio – i.e. to give me the risk profile of the entire portfolio? Obviously if I just took a simple average of the harmonic means across each strategy it wouldn’t be weighted correctly as it wouldn’t take into account the different number of bets per strategy, but it seems that if I had everything in one sheet then that weighting issue would be removed.

    3. Now the hard question – should the answer to 2 be “yes”, is there a particular implied probability to aim for? I guess the lower the figure, the more risky the portfolio, so maybe trying to shoot for something in the 45-50% range..?

    Thanks again for all of your help.

    • Scott
      16 December 2017 at 9:43 am #

      Sorry – one last thing. Were there specific bookies that were disregarded in arriving at the best odds at kick off? Just so I can apply the same approach in oddsportal.

      • Right Winger
        17 December 2017 at 11:33 am #

        Hi Scott,

        In answer to your questions:

        1. The H1/H2 basis you have suggested is absolutely fine. We regularly entertain systems of the same bet type in the same league where the inflection points parameters change from the first half to the second half of the season.

        2. No. If we start combining the systems in search of an overall harmonic mean ‘average’, then we are effectively comparing apples with pears, which would produce a meaningless result. Stick to looking at each system individually and try to achieve a well-balanced portfolio. You may not find a perfect solution here, but give yourself an even spread in terms of numbers of systems falling into low, medium and high categories.

        3. Regarding the bookmakers, I shall be updating the User Guide within the next 24 hours to include this information, so please stay tuned.

        All the best for now.

        • Scott
          18 December 2017 at 2:47 pm #

          Thanks again! Appreciate the response and all understood.

        • acepoint
          22 December 2017 at 10:17 pm #

          Hi Right Winger,

          not updated yet?

          • Right Winger
            24 December 2017 at 9:10 pm #

            Hi Acepoint,

            The article above is not updated yet (I’ll have some quiet time between Xmas & New Year to attend to that), but the tables for sale in the article are the new ones for next year’s Summer League seasons.

            I’ll be sending out a customer email around 1st January, which will also inform everyone that the current Winter League tables will drop down to half price (now that we are halfway through most of the leagues).

            I hope this answers your question and that I understood it correctly.

            All the best.

        • Scott
          3 January 2018 at 11:49 am #

          Hi – has the user guide been updated yet? I keep clicking through the link in your post above, but it seems to be the older version. I’m just wondering if it’s been put up at a separate location.

          Thanks.

  7. jo
    11 June 2017 at 4:01 pm #

    Hi Right Winger,

    do you have rules about odds ranges, for instance, difference no less than 0.3 between inflection points or 2 – 2.3, and even if odds range of 2 – 2.2 would be more promising, you won’t choose it, because the range is too narrow? Of course, odds range of 2-2.3 is different compared to 8-8.3 regarding steps they tend to move up and down. If i have odds of 2.32 it’s unlikely odds will drop below 2 in a single drop, but it’s much more likely for odds to drop from 8.32 to less than 8 and below my odds range.

    • Right Winger
      13 June 2017 at 1:21 pm #

      Hi Jo,

      We don’t have any hard and fast rule about the distance between the inflection points, but we rarely (if ever) come across a situation where the two odds are as close together as your examples above.

      Have a look at the Summer League Campaign spreadsheet and check out each individual system tab. In cells L15 and L16, you will see the range of the odds we were targeting in each league. The narrowest range was in Iceland’s 1st Half season system (tab ICE1A), where there were only 34 ticks between the lower (2.05) and higher (2.39) thresholds.

      Also, try and get your head around how the market moves from its opening odds all the way through to the close of the ante post market. The EPL is an isolated example, and moves differently to other leagues. This is because it is the most popular league in the world for punters and probably accounts for the sum of all the other leagues put together in terms of turnover.

      Therefore, look at other leagues too such as the German Bundesliga or France Ligue 1. Look at Oddsportal and see how the odds of particular bookmakers change up and down during ante post. For example, choose a bookmaker and hover over the odds of any game not yet played to reveal the time stamps and odds movements during the last 24 hours or so. Compare different bookmakers for the same match. You should begin to see patterns, especially how the favourite and underdog prices behave.

      For example, in the EPL, the favourites tend to start at their highest price in the market and steadily reduce towards kick-off. Underdogs tend to go in the other direction. It’s all to do with the weight of money the bookmakers have at their disposal and their primary task of balancing the book. In Germany, you might see the opposite trends, with favourites drifting out the nearer to kick-off you get. Here, the games are not so popular with punters, and the bookmakers need to continually adjust odds in both directions (up and down) to achieve parity.

      Once you have a basic understanding of how the market moves you can begin to predict how the odds are likely to move, and this will be a huge advantage to you.

      So, in answer to your question, look for wider ranges of inflection point odds, but if you decide upon narrower ranges, then a good understanding of market movements will help you to better judge whether a bet is in or out of your target ranges.

      Jo, I hope I’ve understood the question correctly and thanks again for your contribution.

  8. jo
    8 June 2017 at 9:52 pm #

    Hi Right Winger,

    is there a minimum number of bets per system in a season that you would not advise to bet any less than that minimum? In your Summer 2016 campaign there is a system with just 10 bets and some other systems had less than 10 bets in one or two of their 5 previous seasons. I have an option to try a system that varies from 1 to 6 bets a season, is it a good idea?

    • Right Winger
      9 June 2017 at 1:50 pm #

      Hi Jo,

      No, we don’t have any rules about minimum numbers of bets in an individual system.

      So long as you have a portfolio of at least 500 bets, and a mixture of high, medium and low risk systems all contributing during a season, then there is no reason not to look at including a high risk/low number if bets system as mentioned in your comment.

      The decision is yours to make. You should feel comfortable with the potential losing streaks of each system, and you should never rely on any one system to be successful. Paper test everything before committing money to any strategy.

      Good luck!

  9. Right Winger
    23 May 2017 at 9:33 pm #

    Hi Jo,

    To make two HDAFU tables as one-off jobs would cost £50 each based on an estimated 5 hours to collect data and then compile the tables themselves.

    In reply to your comment, we have hardly any visitors to Soccerwidow from China or South Korea – on the other hand, we have many more from Singapore – there seem to be more English speakers/readers in Singapore, which is only natural as it was a British colony for 150 years until 1963.

    Please don’t trust what you see at Oddsportal without checking the time stamps of each set of odds.

    Oddsportal is notorious for inaccurate figures – we don’t even know what their pay out figures mean as they are not based on either the harmonic mean or arithmetical average formulas. We simply don’t know how they come up these figures.

    We have to check each set of Oddsportal odds for accuracy as their API’s (the programs which lock in to the bookmakers’ platforms to record figures), do not update with all bookmakers at the same time. This means that you will often see a bookmaker’s opening odds recorded incorrectly as the highest odds at close of the ante post market. Such errors stick out like a sore thumb from the rest of the odds, and we have to correct these errors manually.

    Singapore is always in our portfolio, and usually for underdogs – It’s a good league.

    Because we filter out our systems, there is no need to pay any attention to pay out figures – they have no relevance to the system betting approach whatsoever.

    We are filtering for value, but the 90% figure you mentioned is a gross figure, including all the mistakes in Oddsportal’s odds, and without any allowance for value.

    And pay out figures have nothing to do with risk. It just shows you the over round the bookmakers have to apply in order to make a profit on the league in question. Lower pay out means higher over round, which is a sign that the league is not so popular with punters. In other words, there is less money available to the bookmakers (because less bets are made on that league) and as a result, they must carry higher over rounds in order to balance their books.

    You will notice with experience that many of the smaller leagues like Singapore contain higher amounts of value. And don’t forget that bookmakers do not try to predict the outcomes of matches – they are only interested in making arbitrage with every match they sell odds for.

    I hope this helps!

  10. Jo
    23 May 2017 at 9:31 pm #

    Hi,

    I’m probably not going to place a custom order for these two leagues this time since they have already started, but if it’s not a difficult task for you to tell me, what approximate price would be for each of them I would like to know. I’d have a better idea how to plan the next year’s summer season.

    Before I bought this year’s summer HDAFU tables I thought about Singapore also, but when I checked payouts at oddsportal.com they were about 90% at the most of the bookies. I assume it makes this league more risky than the others because of it?

    That was the reason I did not buy it and as far as I checked it’s the only league from your HDAFU leagues with significantly lower payouts? Maybe Pinnacle or Marathonbet are a bit better, but Singapore and its lower payouts really stood out to me.

    Of course, I saw Singapore results from your 2016 campaign and of its 5 previous seasons, but still… Maybe you have a comment about this league I could rely on before the 2018 season.

    Why such a small league has more demand from your customers than China or South Korea?

    Best regards,
    Jo

  11. jo
    19 May 2017 at 10:57 pm #

    Hi Right Winger,

    do you plan to add more leagues to summer league HDAFU tables? I’m quite interested in China’s and South Korea’s premier leagues and since Japan is on offer I wonder why China and South Korea aren’t?

    • Right Winger
      20 May 2017 at 2:08 pm #

      Just a question of supply and demand, Jo – there is not a lot of demand from our customers for either China or South Korea.

      However, you are always welcome to contact us and discuss products you wish to buy.

      We do perform bespoke jobs for our clients, and the prices of such jobs are based on the time it takes to perform them.

      If you would like us to make something special for you, then just drop us a line at sales [at] soccerwidow [dot] com

  12. Right Winger
    19 May 2017 at 4:16 pm #

    Thanks for the kind words, LL.

    Yes, Japan is always a good league for positive results.

    I am no fortune teller, but I’ve also seen results begin to outstrip expectations from very early on in a league and then watch it just keep growing, well beyond the 100% yield mark.

    Those are the league seasons you never want to end – they’re just endless summers!

    But for every one of those, there is a portfolio behind it of some systems that will fail, those that will be profitable but below expectations, others that reach expectations, and a few that exceed them.

    And you have to manage each situation with the same mental balance. When something like Japan crops up and starts spiralling upwards, I counter the euphoria with thoughts of how many failing or struggling systems will be supported by my pacemaker, and whether the second best system will also be needed in whole or part to cover the losses, and/or the third, and so on.

    After cancelling out the losses in this way, everything else that struggles over the line just in profit or beyond, is where my eventual yield will be. How big purely depends on how much of my most successful systems’ profits will have gone to make good the losses from the systems in deficit.

    In this way, the portfolio of leagues I have all running consecutively just become a big statistical bell curve in my mind – Every bet is a value bet and my profit is always going to be somewhere in the fattest section of that graph.

    The two ends where results have been more extreme will balance out somewhere along my profit line.

    Of course, it’s numbers that matter. The more systems you can employ which are optimised for results, the better. We’ve often said it but 500 bets in a portfolio is just about the minimum you need to really see the benefits of portfolio betting.

    Our 2016 Campaign article details 825 bets in 178 match days (286 total days). A portfolio of that size was always in with a good chance of succeeding, and it did, for a profit of just over £10,000 using flat stakes of £100 on each bet.

    You’ll see from the free workbook download that the highest point we reached was £11,073, which eventually settled at £10,038 at the end of those seasons.

    You have to see everything you have planned through to a conclusion; even if you abandon it financially at some stage, you should still keep paper-testing the system through its remaining fixtures. You need to know how things work in order to improve them.

    And, observing how each individual league is performing should be on an impersonal level only. You should always view things as a total package rather than measuring individuals too closely. It’s the synergy of the whole mix that counts – just ask any manager or team.

  13. LL
    19 May 2017 at 3:26 pm #

    After buying the table late, I backtested this season’s Japan J-League first 11 rounds and the results are very, very impressive. I’m just thinking if the average yield is predicted to be 15%, and after 11 rounds its 39%, maybe the best run has passed now and I will enter a kind of losing run … 😀

    We’ll see. Be it as it may, I’m very thankful to you guys for running the blog and selling these courses and sheets – this has totally changed my view on betting and I’m sure with diciplined bankroll management and staking plans, and correct calculations with the help of your spreadsheets/courses, everybody taking this seriously will earn long term profit 🙂

    Best regards and thanks again for being so responsive.

  14. James
    28 March 2017 at 7:16 am #

    Hi – I have a couple of questions that I’m hoping you can answer please…

    I’m looking to buy 5 of your HDAFU tables today (specifically Norway, Sweden, Brazil, Japan and MLS) but have a question about the timing of bets. Realistically I’m not going to be awake when the MLS matches are kicking off (and possibly not for the odd 5am kick off in the J-League) and I’m wondering how essential it is that bets are placed close to kick-off. Would I be giving myself a problem with placing MLS and some J-League bets before I went to bed (I’m UK based, so MLS bets would be going on 3 to 4 hours in advance of kick off, J-League 5ams more like 8 hours)?

    And final question, am I committing a cardinal sin by buying the J-League and MLS tables after the seasons have started? Will that disadvantage me at all?

    Thanks in advance for the help.

    • Right Winger
      28 March 2017 at 1:42 pm #

      Hello James,

      Many thanks for your interest in and kind words about Soccerwidow.

      The timing of the Summer League matches are not so important as the odds don’t tend to move wildly in the last hour or so of the ante post market (as they are not as popular with punters as Winter League matches such as the EPL, for example).

      However, if you are concerned then do a little homework of your own and record prices in Oddsportal.com at your last moment of convenience before the games, and then check after the games to see where the prices eventually settled for your chosen strategies at the point of kick-off.

      I’m sure with the MLS and Japan in particular you won’t see much of a significant difference.

      So far as buying the leagues midway through the season, I can only reiterate that for every league you purchase you will receive three tables, one showing the first half season analysis only, one showing the second half, and one for the whole.

      Perhaps paper test the remainder of the first half of the 2017 season in each league and then concentrate your strategies on the second half of each season.

      Or, if you perform a whole season analysis and choose a single strategy applying to the whole of the season, you can certainly get your feet wet straight away.

      It really doesn’t matter where you start so long as you keep the momentum going by running a number of supporting strategies at the same time.

      The five leagues you have in mind are a great launch platform, but I think you’ll need a couple of extra leagues in addition to generate the numbers of bets you need to reach a level of statistical significance.

      You’ll need a minimum of around 500 bets to achieve the synergy we constantly talk about. Perhaps think about Ireland and Finland too.

      And don’t forget the multiple purchases codes at checkout. You’ll see a coupon box before you enter your account details – just enter the 20% discount code SW20 to receive your saving.

      James, I hope this is all clear but please do not hesitate to contact me again should you require clarification on any further matter.

      Good luck and best wishes.

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