In many betting forums there are regular discussions and queries about value betting. However, it seems that there are a good number of bettors who believe in myths and indulge false concepts.
Here are some of the most popular misconceptions…
(1) Betting on low odds is not worth the effort because winnings are very little
This is absolute nonsense. Successful betting is not about the pay-out of a bet, but the main goal is to make a profit. Very often, especially in the small odds markets excellent value can be found.
In addition, low odds have the huge advantage that they stand for high probabilities and therefore losses are considerably fewer in number than with higher priced, lower probability events. Also, small odds experience shorter losing streaks and the patience of the gambler is never stretched too far.
However, what really matters is the price of the bet.
If, for example, the calculations for a match throw up an 85% chance that there will be under 3.5 goals (corresponding betting odds: 1.18), and the market is offering odds of 1.25 then this is a fantastically good value back bet opportunity.
(2) Betting on higher odds is more profitable
Again this is a very common misconception. Higher odds do not automatically hold more value and are therefore more profitable than lower odds.
Many punters believe that better returns can be achieved in the long run if playing at odds between 2.5 to 3.0. Of course, it is understandable that these bets are quite popular as the potential winnings are 1.5 to 2.0 times the stake.
However, what most gamblers do not consider (or perhaps simply do not know!) is that these betting odds represent chances of 33% to 40% of winning, meaning that on average six to seven out of 10 bets in this group will lose.
Since winning and losing bets are never evenly distributed it may well happen that, with a little luck, a few bets in a row may be won but, much more likely is that many, many consecutive bets will lose until the betting bank is depleted beyond recovery or is drained altogether.
(3) If odds are very low it’s a good idea to combine bets
Accumulator bets are the bedfellow of every bookmaker. Full stop! So far as the bookies are concerned the more people combining their betting choices, the better. It is an absolutely nailed on profit for the bookmaker, and only long-term misery for the punters.
We have already mentioned that bets at very low odds have a pretty high chance to win. There is no question about this. Nevertheless, even a bet with a 90% chance of winning still has a 10% probability of losing. Multiples of bets greatly increase the chances of losing. Only one bet needs to go wrong for a busted flush.
In addition, there is of course the overround of the bookmakers. When combining your bets, you usually have to pick one bookmaker limiting you to accepting their fixed prices. You can be sure that somewhere in the accumulator package you have bought will be bets priced well below their true value. No bookmaker offers best price on every event – if they did they would soon be out of business.
With accumulators you are invariably buying negative value and we have seen throughout this blog that the only way of making consistent profits through gambling is by having value on your side, constantly.
This sermon is therefore to encourage you to avoid multiple, accumulator or parlay bets. You can be sure that the bookmaker is god in this particular arena and the gambler always loses in the long run, guaranteed.