# 1×2 HDAFU Tables User Guide: 6 Easy Steps to Find the most Lucrative Betting Systems

## Step 3 – Adjusting the Filtered Five Season Analysis Box

As mentioned before, we have fixed most of the figures in the summary box at the bottom of the draw bet type. (The box entitled ‘Full Five-Season Analysis Backing Draw in Every Match). These will provide you with a benchmark for comparing with our filtered analysis.

HDAFU Table Data Tab: Adding Data Field Aide-Memoir

What we are going to do now is adjust the formulas in the box entitled ‘Filtered Five-Season Analysis’.

To make this easier, we type in the parameters of our new list as an aide-memoir.

All we need to remember is the start of the list on row 111 at 3.33, and the end on row 666 at 3.63.

The image on the left below shows where we have used a spare part of this box just to type in our parameters (where we have highlighted in orange).

The cells we now need to attend to are colour-coded, green and blue.

Firstly, the green cells: Total P/L; Longest Winning & Losing Streaks (LWS & LLS); # Times Recurring (for both); Pld (total number of bets); W (total number of winning bets). There are seven green cells in total.

Secondly, the blue cells showing the five season breakdown of matches played, bets won, and resulting profit. There are fifteen blue cells in total.

We will do the green cells first.

Click on the first green cell, the Total P/L figure. In this example, cell AO1354, showing (835.00).

HDAFU Table Data Tab: Formula Field Location

Look at the formula bar above it. (In this case above columns AO and AP). The formula looks like this:

=SUM(AN10:AN1329)

All you need to do is click inside this formula and change the numbers. Change the 10 to 111, and the 1329 to 666.

Check that all is okay before clicking on the tick to the left of the formula box.

Just change these two numbers in each formula every time.

Do these simple number substitutions in the remaining six green cells and repeat them for the blue cells.

Some of the blue cell formulas contain two sets of numbers. For example:

=SUMIFS(AN10:AN1329,F10:F1329,”2012″)

In these cases, you will need to change both 10’s to 111 and both 1329’s to 666.

For the more Excel experienced among you, the replace function may provide a small time saving (although you will have to unprotect the Data Tab before attempting this).

The very last step is to check each of the green and blue cells to ensure you have the correct numbers showing.

## Step 4 – The Final Analysis

Having successfully performed the first three steps, our spreadsheet summary boxes should now look like this:

Wow! What a difference!

Having filtered out the sweet spot in this league, we are left with a very promising system.

The profit/loss figure has improved by over 9,500 units (8,822 + 835) simply by concentrating on where the inflection points graph told us to look.

We have increased the hit-rate from 26.29% to 33.27%, which has improved the zero odds for the draw from 3.804 to just 3.006.

If we are targeting draws between 3.33 and 3.63, every bet we make in the new season will therefore be a value bet!

This is another vital contributory factor towards the synergy of our portfolio.

The longest losing streak has been cut in half (16; down from 30), whilst the winning streak is now two separate occurrences of four rather than one set of five previously.

Yield looks pretty good too. With betting in general, anything around 5-6% is a good yield. With the HDAFU systems we employ, our minimum yield requirement is 10%. 15.87% is therefore very tasty indeed.

Some of the analyses we have carried out in the past have produced yield values in excess of 100%.

But despite all of this, does this analysis prove that this system is worthwhile pursuing?

### Checklist for Betting System Acceptance

These are our personal criteria for making a betting system selection decision:

• Before accepting any system into our portfolio, we require that it has been in profit in at least four of the previous five seasons.
• The number of betting opportunities and the hit-rate should both show fairly consistent figures throughout the five seasons.
• Zero odds must preferably be below the filtered system’s first (lower) inflection point value. (This is of more importance to medium and high risk systems such as backing the draw, the away win, or the underdog).
• Yield must ideally be 10% or more.
• The maximum expected losing streak should preferably be no more than 20 matches, although higher risk systems will indicate longer streaks. It is up to you to find an acceptable balance depending on your own acceptance or aversion to risk.
• Average Profit/Loss Per Season should preferably be in four figures (when analysing with a 100 unit flat stake).

Last Update: 6 May 2018

### 86 Responses to “1×2 HDAFU Tables User Guide: 6 Easy Steps to Find the most Lucrative Betting Systems”

1. Bruce
4 May 2018 at 9:47 am #

Hi – Just bought one of your tables to have a look at – looks great but I have a couple of questions about laying using these tables.

Looking at the inflection point charts there’s often area’s that look like they’d be great for laying so my questions are
– Would you ever have a backing and laying strategy in the same league (assuming the odds ranges were different for each).
– Have you ever found a laying strategy that was the best strategy in a given league? Perhaps my real question is – is it worth looking or would you stick to backing strategies

Many thanks

Bruce

• Soccerwidow
4 May 2018 at 10:19 am #

Hi Bruce, you can do both: laying and/or backing.

Say, if the favorites in the particular league you’re looking at are vastly under-priced, then lay them. However, then the underdogs in that particular league will be over-priced… that would be a back bet strategy.

However, you cannot mix exactly these two together because in effect, you would be gambling on the same outcome… the favourite not to win.

Another thing to take into consideration is when deciding whether laying or backing that laying can only be done via exchanges and they charge a 5% commission whilst backing can be done via a huge range of bookmakers without any commission fee. Of course, that only works if you have access to the bookmakers that offer regular the highest prices, especially for underdogs.

You’ll need to do quite a bit of home work in that direction before you’ll be able to make an informed decision.

• Bruce
4 May 2018 at 3:43 pm #

From what you say there’s no reason not to run laying and backing strategies in the same league – so long as they don’t directly conflict.

Some of what I was wondering about was that if one laid with a liability of 100 units then your returns would be lower and so backing strategies might always win out, while simply staking 100 units per lay might put pressure on one’s bank. Intuitively, and from the little homework I’ve done thus far, it seems for the same liability per bet a laying strategy would probably want more bets to generate a good return.

• Soccerwidow
5 May 2018 at 5:29 am #

Hi Bruce,

regarding the best staking you’ll have to do some more homework and run some retroperspective simulations yourself. For that, identify the systems (strategies) you’d like to follow and then calculate various scenarios such as laying/backing with the same stakes or with the same liability or make the stakes dependant on the odds, and so on.

I personally prefer “Marias Staking Plan”. I don’t know if you ever heard of her. This was a thread, now over a decade ago, in which she published lay picks on horses and increased her original starting bank from £3000 within only one year to £100.000. Her stakes (risk) were interlinked with odds clusters. Here’s the original thread in the Webarchive: Marias Laying System. You can learn a lot from that thread.

Hope that helps and good luck!

• Bruce
5 May 2018 at 5:11 pm #

Thanks for the reply – lots of work for me – I had heard of Maria but hadn’t paid much attention but now you’ve recomended her I’ll take a look.
Thanks again
Bruce

• Bruce
6 May 2018 at 7:46 pm #

Many thanks for putting me onto this – looking at it, reading some more of your articles and playing around with excel it looks like it’s based on minimising the impact of longest losing streaks – I like this because I’m know I’m not good with drawdown – although I get better as I better understand the math.

So I have couple of things I’d like to ask – Maria was betting a single system on horses – so do you think her figures are too conservative if one is playing a few systems across a few leagues and can you point me to anything that would allow me to better quantify that – I realise that this could get very detailed and I’m not sure how detailed it needs to be but I can’t help being curious.

• Soccerwidow
6 May 2018 at 9:41 pm #

Hi Bruce,

I don’t really understand your question but I will try my best…

If you would like to replicate with football betting what Maria did with horse racing then you’ll have to search the inflection point graphs in the HDAFU Tables for curves that go permanently down and that have odds below 11.00. For example, betting on away wins in the German Bundesliga within the odds range from 1.67 to 3.00.

The next step is to look closer at this group (in the Data tab) and try to figure out a pattern with a promise of a positive return when laid. For that, split the bets into subsets and try to find for each subset, groups that have a lower hit rate than the odds suggest. These are your lay candidates.

This will reduce the number of available bets that are going to fit your criteria during the next season – in the German Bundesliga in this particular group to 25/30 matches each season.

In total you will need approximately 500 bets over the course of a full season. That means that you’ll have to identify this type of lay bet across perhaps 15 different leagues.

Say, in the Bundesliga the group you found had an average 55% hit rate for lay bets. To balance that low hit rate out you’ll need to find somewhere else a similar big group with a 95% prospective hit rate, and so on. In other words, try to balance the risk within your portfolio.

Once you have drawn up a list of candidates, then run a simulation using the previous season only (not 5 years) and see if you would have actually achieved the desired hit rate of 85% (like Maria achieved) and how your bank would have moved up and down. Remove the leagues that didn’t work or add more leagues/ groups for further diversification.

Really, this is a huge topic and as you say this could get very detailed.

The HDAFU Simulations are just a starting point to look into the right direction but they are really only the very first step.

You are right that the main purpose of Maria’s staking plan was to minimise the impact of long losing streaks.

By the way, all of her bets were value bets with an average mathematical advantage (yield) of 7%. This number may sound very low but she showed the betting community that it is better to concentrate on steady growth than on a high yield.

A high yield is a ‘synonym’ for high risk; the higher the yield you hope to achieve the higher the risk of a long losing streak, frayed nerves, desire to pull the plug on the system, etc. etc.

Just as a side note, could you please wait with any further questions until end of May? We are currently immensely busy in implementing the GDPR (European data protection law), which has to be in place by 25th May. Thanks for understanding! 😉

• Bruce
7 May 2018 at 10:57 am #

Many thanks for all your help – no more questions now – sorry if my last question was a bit vague – your answer gave me what I wanted to know – many thanks.

Bruce

2. Sam
29 January 2018 at 5:39 am #

Hi guys.

I just thought I’d go over a previous question just to make sure the information keeps up to date.

Regarding which bookies to tick at Oddsportal. This seems like a reasonably important point as we’d like to mirror the exact conditions you guys use when determining qualifying bets

Regarding Right Winger’s response to Tony on 10 May 2017 at 12:35 am

The bookmakers you guys tick at Oddsportal:

“188bet; 888Sport; Betclic; Betfred; BetVictor; Betway; BoyleSports; Comeon; Coral; Expekt; Island Casino; Ladbrokes; SBOBET; Sportingbet; Tipico; Titanbet”

I would’ve thought this info might’ve been a condition of the HDAFU tables themselves. Wouldn’t this info be of some importance in the pursuit of accuracy using your system (or maybe it has a marginal impact)?

Anyway I would just like to know if this info is still current and also why those particular bookmakers?

Keep up the great work you evil geniuses.

Sam.

• Right Winger
15 February 2018 at 10:20 pm #

Hi Sam,

The complete answer to your question can now be found in our article “Understanding the Settings in Oddsportal“.

You’ll find the bookmaker list on page 2.

Hope this helps!

3. Mark
6 October 2017 at 5:50 am #

Hi I’ve finally been able to go through your new table and explanation on Paraguay but I have 2 questions and I can’t seem to find the answers above. Firstly you mentioned that you should only choose the best option in each league. i.e. Away win has 2 odds clusters and you mentioned you should only choose one and not both. What about if say you had Draw and Underdog both meeting all parameters, would you include both or choose the best of the 2 so you’re only following one option per league?

Secondly, you have many tables available now. If you purchase all the leagues, what bank would you recommend? Above I noticed some people mention they’re betting 5% which converts to a 20-unit bank while you mentioned your study was with 2500 euros and betting 100 euro fixed bets (or a 25-unit bank). However you mentioned that you should look for an ELS of less than 20 in the historical results. That means you would blow your bank if you had a run of 20 losses and were betting 5% of your bank. I recall reading somewhere on your blog some time back that you should bet ELS x 5 which means in this case you should have a 100-unit bank. I think you actually showed it in a formula.

4. Right Winger
14 September 2017 at 3:27 pm #

I am glad you seem to have hit a rich vein of results at the very beginning of your campaign.

In contrary to your last paragraph, the HDAFU Tables are based on odds as near to the close of the ante post market as possible. In other words, within the last hour before kick-off, but mostly within the last five minutes before kick-off.

The optimum betting time is therefore within the last hour before the commencement of any match. Try and get it closer if you can (preferably within the last 15 minutes).

If you read the comments sections in all the HDAFU Tables’ articles, you will see that we do advocate the placement of some bets far longer in advance of the kick-off time, but only on games where we have a good idea of how the market is likely to move.

This is particularly the case with odds that are buried in the middle of the two inflection points, and are likely to remain so for the duration of the ante post period.

We can also take a chance with home teams/favourites that are likely to drift in (i.e. reduce in price). If they drift too far and outside the lower inflection point, we can always lay these situations with an exchange and achieve a second revenue stream in the form of arbitrage.

Attaining these special skills is all about knowing how and why the market prices move. To teach yourself this, you will need to observe price fluctuations in games over the whole of the ante post period.

With time, you will begin to see patterns – each league is slightly different according to its popularity and the weight of money placed by punters. Each bookmaker will follow one of three basic strategies in order to achieve its desired market share, and so on.

What I am saying is that it is possible to anticipate price movements in the market, and this is true of any ‘enclosed’ market with indentifiable boundaries such as football betting. It’s a small pond affected purely by supply and demand based around either two (e.g. yes or no) or three (e.g. 1-X-2) outcomes.

With bookmakers controlling the prices based on demand and their ability to supply, things are far easier to predict than something like the stock market where prices are determined by what people are prepared to pay for something at any given point in time.

Another big difference that makes bookmakers more predictable is the fact that the market is time limited (unlike stocks and shares, where only the IPO, the initial public offering of shares, has a limit – i.e. the length of time taken to fill the IPO).

The bookmaking industry is therefore more similar to the way insurance is transacted than to the vast ocean of unpredictable stocks and shares trading, which, I would also say, carries far greater risks and uncertainties.

Regarding your comment about odds jumping in extreme amounts, I would say that things tend to settle down more in the last 15 minutes before kick-off. Any bookmaker jumping around by 10 ticks or more (using your example), is likely to be desperate for market share in an attempt to address an imbalance in its book. Ignore these outliers as they are usually not representative of the market opinion at the time.

Whatever you decide to do, make sure you enforce the decision entirely. In other words, make a plan and stick to it. You are more likely to succeed doing this than treating every situation on its own merits.

The word ‘luck’ only comes into the equation when the end result turns out better (or worse!) than that to be expected from our own extensive set of skills.

When this happens, we can say that in spite of our skills-set and all the hard work and time that went into creating our understanding of the job, the end-result was better than expected – this is definitely ‘good luck’ in operation. However, you still need the cake in place before you can receive any icing that is likely to come your way…

Successful betting is all about hard work. It’s an evolutionary process, and if you are prepared never to give up learning, then you will become better and better at it. Learning is the key to life on earth. Once you give up learning and adpating to your situation, you become extinct.

Rado, I hope all of this helps in some small way! Thanks for your time and trouble in commenting again.

14 September 2017 at 2:11 pm #

Time to report the results after my first week of betting 😀

It was an exceptionally good run of winning bets, probably it’s beginner’s luck, I don’t know, but the fact is that in only a week, I increased my starting bank by more than 50%! Let’s hope it continues like this from now on.

Probably I’m getting annoying, but can you please give me a piece of advice about betting times. All right, I now agree that placing ALL the bets on the previous evening is probably not a good idea, so I do my best to track the odds and place the bets in the last hour before kickoff (usually 40-50 mins before match start time).

Is it okay if I do that for all matches, because sometimes in the last hour before kickoff the odds are a true rollercoaster and can jump up or down by more than 10 hundreths in a matter of minutes? Well, I guess the effects will cancel each other out – sometimes I will bet and then the odds will become higher the next minute, but other times I will have luck and the odds will fall after I bet. So that’s probably not a problem. My worry is if the bet gets outside the inflection points. Then I guess I will simply leave it be.

Besides, the intro to your tables says something like “the odds in the HDAFU tables are based on the odds on the evening before kickoff of all matches”. So why then must we wait until the last hour before the game to place our bet, when all our data and inflection points are based on odds 24 hours earlier?

6. Daniel
9 September 2017 at 2:01 pm #

Hi Right Winger,

did you notice the inclusion of Asian Odds website in the list of compulsory bookmakers on Oddsportal? What do you think about that? Is kinda strange because Asian Odds is not a bookmaker but more like a odds comparison website like Oddsportal.

• Right Winger
10 September 2017 at 1:13 pm #

Hi Daniel,

Yes, I saw Asian Odds appear on Oddsportal’s compulsory list of bookmakers around a week ago.

They are a multi-bookmaker platform like Vodds, Premium Tradings or Sport Market and, like the others, provide access to Pinnacle for customers living in territories where Pinnacle does not have a trading licence.

I am not sure of the legalities involved, but I would imagine that as access to Pinnacle is via a surrogate, so long as the surrogate has a licence to trade in your geographical zone, then all should be good and well.

They also include access to five other sharp Asian books, with bets being accepted on an aggregate basis. In other words, you place one bet, but the odds you buy are split into perhaps several lines, with the possibility of all six bookmakers accepting a portion of the risk.

In other words, your stake is divided between the bookmakers willing to match the odds you require but, to all intents and purposes, your bet is settled as just one transaction via the Asian Odds platform. Asian Odds probably operates on a commission basis, taking miniscule percentages of turnover sent to the bookmakers on its panel. (But no commission is charged to the punter).

This type of arrangment is how insurance portfolios are mainly arranged for complex risks in the Lloyd’s of London market, with multiple insurance companies underwriting proportions of the risk until it is 100% filled (covered). In this way, we see once again that insurance and gambling are intrinsically linked.

For the sake of the HDAFU Tables, ignore Asian Odds for the time being as the time stamps of their odds seem to be unreliable at present. Besides, their odds should be no better than Pinnacle’s own.

Let me know if you have any further observations on Asian Odds. The prevalence of multi-bookmaker platforms is something that I believe will become more common.

Essentially operating as a cooperative, they undoubtedly offer greater liquidity and, as they are low margin, high turnover businesses, your account with any multi-bookmaker platform should never be limited, compromised or banned: That’s good news for us all!

8 September 2017 at 10:31 am #

It’s me again. I have found myself in a very interesting situation. A system of mine has a range of 2.95 to 3.15. In oddsportal, nearly all the bookies show odds between 3.05 and 3.10, which is well inside my range. HOWEVER, only my bookie Pinnacle has odds of 3.25! What should I do now? The market as a whole shows that the best must be made, but only because of one or two bookmakers, the bet doesnt fit in the system, because the highest odds are outside the range. And its not Marathon or Tempo, its my bookie of choosing. Should I bet?

• Right Winger
8 September 2017 at 12:19 pm #

In general, you will need to make a decision if you are using just one bookmaker to place bets if and when you encounter the situation you have described above.

Either place all bets where the criteria you have described is apparent, or decline all bets. Don’t place some and not others.

Pinnacle’s historical odds are utilised in the data set for each HDAFU Table. Therefore, if Pinnacle’s odds are outside of your inflection points odds range, then technically the bet should not be placed.

However, if the rest of the market says the bet is inside your inflection points and just Pinnacle are offering odds slightly above the market benchmark, then the extra value you will gain from taking the higher odds will probably mean you will make a profit from these bets in the long run. The lower implied probability of entertaining higher odds should not make too much of a difference as some of these bets will win and some of them will lose.

I suggest if you are going to place these bets then set yourself a margin of error either side of the two inflection points – say no more than 5% difference between the benefit on offer of the higher odds (or -5% difference on the lower inflection point odds). The example you mentioned comparing the odds of your upper inflection point of 3.15 with Pinnacle’s 3.25 produces an increment of 4.65%. (225 divided by 215). Stick with whatever you decide to do and follow it through consistently.

Rado, I hope this is self-explanatory and helps in some small way.

6 September 2017 at 3:54 pm #

And one more:
5. How accurate/recent are the odds in oddsportal. I mean, how often are they refreshed? If I decide to try and place bets on the last hour before kickoff and enter oddsportal, will the odds be accurate enough to just read them and place the bet immediately?

• Right Winger
6 September 2017 at 5:06 pm #

1. It should be possible to place bets the evening before kick-off so long as you understand how the market moves. As per my reply to you of 2 September 2017 at 12:49 pm (comments section of the Winter League Tables Sales’ Page), home wins and favourites are easier to place longer term.

However, as the HDAFU Tables are all configured based on highest odds at/near the close of the ante post market, you will experience more consistent results the nearer to kick-off you can place your bets.

2. Missing the beginning of a season should not affect you in any way. I have written about the ‘conveyor belt’ analogy in my comment dated 21 August 2017 at 3:58 pm (comments section of the Winter League Campaign article).

3. If you are firm about full-season analyses only, then yes, you will have 12 systems. Please refer to pages 1 and 4 of the Winter League Campaign article for full information on how you can assess the risk composition of your chosen portfolio of systems and why a healthy balance of risk is essential.

4. 5% of your starting bank is a fair stake size – I have no problem with this suggestion. And do not forget to use the stop loss and ratchet mechanisms for intelligent use of your bank, both from the perspective of protecting it (stop loss) and speculating to accumulate (ratchet).

5. Oddsportal is unfortunately a can of worms and relies on API scrapers with each individual bookmaker. These scrapers should be updating on a minute-by-minute basis, but reliability is a huge issue.

Some bookmakers’ odds are never updated from their opening offerings, whilst some stall further down the line. In order to tell if the highest bookmaker odds are still relevant at the time you are looking to place the bet, you will need to hover your mouse cursor over the odds figures of the best bookmakers to reveal the time stamps and list of recent updates.

Any results showing within the previous 30 minutes should be okay to facilitate your betting decision, but the nearer to the real time the better, is the best advice I can offer. As mentioned before, we tend to remove Tempobet, Marathonbet and 1Xbet from the equation and base decisions on the remainder.

6 September 2017 at 10:24 am #

Hi again, I’ve finally decided to purchase 12 tables and I have some final questions before I start betting this Friday. I am very proficient with maths and Excel and have completely understood your formulae and betting mechanics, so they are not an issue. However, I am not so proficient with the market mechanics themselves, so there are my final qustions:

1. I am pretty busy and dont have the time to follow all the matches, especially on weekdays, so if I always bet all matches on the evening before kickoff, will that impact my results so much and will it be okay with the HDAFU tables statistics.

2. I have missed 3-4 rounds from the seasons already, hope this will also not be so bad?

3. So 12 bought tables mean 12 systems, right? I have chosen to stick only with full-season systems and have found 5 favorite/home systems, 3 draws and 3 underdogs. Do you think this is a well balanced portfolio and will it have issues with covering the losses? My three underdog systems are with max odds of around 7.00, as I prefer not to venture into the highest odds teritory.

4. As said, I will bet in Pinnacle only, with a starting bank 20 times larger than my flatbet. What’s your opinion on this?

10. Amy
9 August 2017 at 7:37 pm #

Is there anywhere where it describes what the R-total is ? that’s really throwing me off.

Thanks

• Right Winger
9 August 2017 at 8:23 pm #

Hi Amy,

R-Total is just an abbreviation for running-total.

In other words, whatever the total profit/loss is up to and including the result of the previous/last bet.

I hope this helps.

11. timmyp
16 July 2017 at 11:12 pm #

ignore my last comment, I have missed a step…..

apologies

12. timmyp
16 July 2017 at 11:05 pm #

not sure about the LWS and LLS stats. When the tables are amended to show system stats, the LWS and LLS show the streaks in relation to the odds sequence. Would it be better to show the streaks in a chronological sequence?

13. Gabriel
5 July 2017 at 6:20 pm #

Just curious: why not inclued South Korea and China in the summer leagues for sale?

🙂

• Right Winger
5 July 2017 at 6:51 pm #

Gabriel,

You’re the second to ask that question on the blog – same answer I’m afraid – pure demand and supply as no-one has been interested in those leagues in the past.

We may however bend to include them in the Summer League portfolio next time around…

…Watch this space!

14. Right Winger
5 July 2017 at 1:02 pm #

Hi Gabriel,

Yes and no is the answer.

The more bets you place further in advance, the more chance there is of those closer to the outliers eventually falling outside the inflection points.

This is no problem with dropping favourite prices, as we can lay the bets off with an exchange and make arbitrage. With the underdogs, we either have to let them run or lay them off at a loss.

Laying off rising underdog prices does mean that the losses can be greater than the profits we can make with laying off the favourites (larger price fluctuations possible).

The other problem of early betting is that you have to tie-up more of your money for longer periods in advance of the final hour before kick-off.

For some of us, this is okay because the bank is large enough to withstand this, but if you are on a smaller budget, you could encounter problems with money tied-up in games that won’t take place for a few days, when the money is required more immediately for games that are taking place now.

Taking advantage of odds movements is all good and well, but the profits from arbitrage are small. It’s a lot harder work to make anything like the money we can make by placing the value bets and letting them run.

I hope this explains!

15. Gabriel
5 July 2017 at 2:50 am #

Hi, Rw.

“Yes, many of our bets are placed during the last 30 minutes before kick-off. There are days which are more hectic than others, but we do ease any anticipated congestion by placing some bets hours or days before kick-off (for bets comfortably in the middle of our inflection points), because we understand how the market odds move throughout the ante post market in many of the leagues.”

My question: if odds movement is known, why not place bets like in-play betting, but during the ante-post period. For example: if backing home is 1.9 and by experience, it is known that during ante post period it will lower to 1.7, why not place bets only then to secure a nice profit using odds movement?

Wouldn’t that also be a winner?

16. jo
26 June 2017 at 3:58 pm #

hi Right Winger,

if the last hour before kick off times with matches in question is not overloaded with potential matches to bet on and everything can be done with no hurry during last 15 minutes or less before kick off time is it better to wait for those last 15 minutes, maybe odds during last 15 minutes or even less would have less statistical noise, than odds for instance 60-50 minutes before k.o.? Since HDAFU simulations are based on odds at k.o. times. And there are some matches that are just in or out of inflection points 60-50min before the match and vice versa 15 minutes or less.

• Right Winger
26 June 2017 at 4:35 pm #

Hello again Jo,

I can understand your concerns in wanting to be as exact as possible regarding the placement of bets, and what the rules are.

Yes, many of our bets are placed during the last 30 minutes before kick-off. There are days which are more hectic than others, but we do ease any anticipated congestion by placing some bets hours or days before kick-off (for bets comfortably in the middle of our inflection points), because we understand how the market odds move throughout the ante post market in many of the leagues.

It is therefore possible to achieve much greater prices for a bet than the eventual odds at kick-off, AND still maintain that bet within the inflection points. (Especially with home wins and favourites). These bets not only increase the bottom line, they also make up for any bets that go wrong within your margin of error (i.e. bets drifting outside the inflection points).

If you put things into perspective, even if you place a bet at odds within your inflection points, and those odds move to an area slightly outside your calculated parameters by the end of the ante post market, some of those ‘rogue’ bets will still win and some will lose. It should not affect your overall performance to any significant extent, so long as the vast majority of your bets (say a minimum of 95%) fall within the desired inflection points.

The inflection points are not a rigid science. As we have written many times throughout the blog, statistical analysis is an estimate of the future based on what has happened in the past. It can never be expressed in exact terms.

Acceptable error is therefore part and parcel of any exercise such as this. If your analysis is sound in the first instance, you will find results at both ends of your target odds (i.e. those bets placed slightly outside your two inflection points), will have a tendency to balance themselves out across your portfolio.

I hope this helps.

17. Right Winger
23 June 2017 at 12:59 pm #

Hi Gabriel,

Just to iron out the whole Marathonbet issue once and for all.

When collecting and correcting odds at the end of each season, almost all of the Marathonbet and 1xBet odds are downgraded or discarded in our search for odds which are more realistic and/or closest to those at the end of the ante post market.

In your example, the historical odds would have been recorded by us at 2.05 and not 2.25.

This is why we tell you to rely on the majority of bookmakers rather than using Marathonbet’s prices as a guideline.

Use Marathonbet to place a bet only when the rest of the market indicates the match in question is inside your inflection points.

I hope this is clear! 🙂

18. Gabriel
22 June 2017 at 5:03 am #

RW, thanks for the answers. No problem about the delay. I’ve been studying a lot and finding so many more questions. 😉

Ok. I understood everything that was said. But just one thing wasn’t clear. You said:

“We use Marathonbet but do experience occasions where we wish to place a bet at odds advertised on comparison sites only to find that when logging-in to our account, the odds on offer are drastically different.”

My point is: you did consider Marathon in the HDAFU historic tables, right? And because of that, your range for a certain strategy would be 2.20 to 2.50, for example. When applying the strategy in the following season in a certain game, Marathon shows 2.25, and you say we should not place the bet because most bookies show 2.05, for example, or because these odds aren’t true when you login to Marathon and check the odds. Alright, understood!

But, when this new season ends and goes to HDAFU table for building the new strategy for next year, this match will show the highest odds as being 2.25 and not 2.05. Isn’t that a flaw of this system?

Couldn’t we use odds toggle and reduce the highest odds to correct that? In my strategies a see marathon as highest odds many times and I keep asking myself if I am doing the right thing.

19. Gabriel
18 June 2017 at 10:58 am #

Hi. I saw myself in the following situation: my range for betting the draw is 3.5 and 3.7. One hour before the match begins most bookmakers showed 3.4 average and Pinnacle (yes, Pinnacle – not one of the bookies with errors) showed 3.75.

What to do? Thanks.

• Right Winger
21 June 2017 at 5:46 pm #

Hello again Gabriel,

The answer is to ensure you can get the odds with Pinnacle before committing to placing the bet.

They are usually very accurate (rarely out of kilter with their advertised prices), so if Pinnacle say 3.75 and your cut-off point is 3.7, then don’t place the bet.

I hope this is self-explanatory.

20. Gabriel
17 June 2017 at 8:48 pm #

Hi, Right Winger! I have a question which sound the same one I’ve read here, but it is not.

Let’s say my range to bet is 2.40 to 3.00 and the majority of bookmakers show 2.90 odds before kick off, except one, Marathon, for example, that shows 3.05. In your answer before, you say in this particular case to trust the majority of bookmakers and place the bet, and if possible, at 3.05 odds.

First question: if you used historical highest odds (including Marathon), then that must have included these situations in the data to create the systems and therefore, in the analysis, this bet should not have been placed. Why did you say the bet should have been placed? Is that because you corrected all situations like these, excluding outliers one by one, like marathon or 5Dimes?

Second question: what if the situation is a little bit different, let’s say the majority of bookmakers are showing 2.30, but Marathon shows 2.45. Should I place the bet?

Thanks a lot!

• Right Winger
21 June 2017 at 5:39 pm #

Hi Gabriel,

Sorry for the delay in replying to you.

Yes, you make a good point about Marathonbet, and this also applies to the other Russian based bookmaker, 1xBet.

Because they are both low margin, high volume bookies, their odds tend to move faster than most other bookmakers, but what you see on comparison sites is not always the case when it comes to trying to place a bet at the odds you have seen elsewhere.

We use Marathonbet but do experience occasions where we wish to place a bet at odds advertised on comparison sites only to find that when logging-in to our account, the odds on offer are drastically different.

Our general rule for these two bookies is that if you can place the bet with them at higher odds than the rest of the market, then do so. But exclude their odds when making the judgment to place the bet in the first place – rely on what the rest of the market tells you instead.

This should answer part two of your question. In the case you described, I would not place the bet with Marathonbet if the rest of the market tells me their odds are outside the parameters of the system.

Hope this is useful, and thanks for you questions.

21. Right Winger
17 June 2017 at 1:24 pm #

Hello Gabriel,

We are not fans of ante post lay betting for a number of reasons. Firstly, you have to use a betting exchange, which charges commission, and therefore robs you of a good chunk of your profits. Add the fact that the lay prices have to be above the backing odds, which surrenders even more of the value. Lastly, the psychology is different because each losing lay bet sends your betting bank backwards perhaps two or three steps at a time, whilst each winning bet provides smaller increases as it is effectively the same as backing on the double chance market. (where odds are typically less than 1.35).

At least with backing, the losses are manageable and known (fixed stakes), whilst the wins can advance the bank further than the losses can erode it. There is less stress on the bank, especially if you hit a streak of losing bets.

In our opinion, lay betting is best in an in-play environment, but if you’re still keen on ante post lay betting, just remember that this is effectively what the bookmakers do themselves when offering any bet for sale. And their profit margins are typically 5% or less. Bear in mind also that they don’t have commission to pay on their winnings or need to take a price over and above the price of backing.

We have tried so many lay betting systems in the past, but they are time-consuming (more bets to place as you have mentioned), produce more jagged profit curves (exaggerated peaks and troughs – more statistical noise, not less), and are particularly disheartening when the losing streaks arrive, knowing how many winning bets you then need to climb back to where you were before and begin building again.

It’s just a personal choice for us, but straightforward-backing-only does provide a much more controllable position and a more stress-free ride.

Have a look at my answer to JVR dated 6 May 2017 in the comments above. This will give you a rough guide on how to simulate exchange odds using the HDAFU tables.

In answer to your second point, yes, in some leagues the home win curves can resemble the favourite curves (as the home team is more often the favourite), whilst the away win curves can resemble the underdog curves (as the away team is more often the underdog).

However, some leagues are different, and splitting the analysis into season halves can also produce stark differences in these curves – the curves are therefore not always similar. I am constantly surprised with how much detail this sort of analysis can reveal.

22. Gabriel
16 June 2017 at 11:00 pm #

Hi. I’m very excited to start using the knowledge kindly posted in soccerwidow. My approach towards soccerbetting changed dramatically after reading the many posts here.

Here are my questions: is it worthy to add, in addition to HDAFU, lay bets? I added 3 more bet types to my analysis: lay home, lay away and lay the draw. Sometimes, it is the best way to go and since it covers 2 results instead of 1, the noise is reduced drastically. The downside is that one has to place so many bets sometimes and also, one has to calculate these odds manually, since oddsportal do not place these odds directly like 1×2 odds. What do you think about this?

Another related question: sometimes, the curves look alike each other. In other words, they show high linear correlation between each other. Back away and underdog look alike a lot when we analyse though leagues, such as Brazil or South Korea. Is that part of the job or is there a way to eliminate these sometimes unnecessary steps?

Thanks a lot and congrats!

23. Gabriel
16 June 2017 at 2:41 pm #

Hi.

When you say, in the Checklist that “Average Profit/Loss Per Season should preferably be in four figures (when analysing with a 100 unit flat stake).”, I understand that it means for a full season analysis, right? So, in other word, it means for 1st half analysis, four figures divided by two, right? Or, 500, in the case of half season.

Thanks!

• Right Winger
16 June 2017 at 3:58 pm #

Hello Gabriel,

No, we like to see our average profit/loss per season figure in four figures (with 100 unit stakes) for any of the three types of analysis, whether it be on the whole season, 1st half, or 2nd half table.

It’s not a rule that is set in stone but, for us, it is a personal benchmark for deciding whether to include a system.

24. Right Winger
9 June 2017 at 3:49 pm #

Hello Simon,

The Winter Leagues (20 in total this year) will be ready and available to buy sometime during this weekend.

To achieve a portfolio of 500 bets is easier to do with the Winter Leagues as many more of them tend to be larger in terms of numbers of games than most of the Summer Leagues. This means perhaps greater numbers of betting opportunities per system chosen. (But this of course relies on your attitude towards risk).

It is difficult to answer the question of how many leagues to buy. We use all of them – the larger the portfolio the better as far as we are concerned. But each user’s decision-making process regarding losing streaks and acceptable risk differs.

I would say purchasing a minimum of five leagues is a start, and then add-on additional systems until you have a portfolio with a nice balance of risk and acceptable losing streaks.

Simon, more than that I cannot say – everyone is different. Everyone will balance their portfolios differently. Some will choose low risk systems with greater numbers of bets; others will opt for higher risk systems with fewer bets; others still will blend low, medium and high risk systems into optimum numbers of bets to suit their own personal tastes.

I hope this helps! All the best.

25. Simon
9 June 2017 at 3:19 pm #

Hi,

I’ve downloaded the example spreadsheet and followed through with the guide. You have done a top notch job explaining the general method to go through to find a profitable system in a given league. When all the steps are broken down, and things pointed out to look for, it all is nice and easy to follow.

I’m very much looking forward to the release of the 2017-18 winter league tables in order to analyse and find good systems to take into the portfolio.

In order to get to the point where you have 500 bets in total for a season, how many leagues would you need to be looking at realistically?

Also, just planning ahead here, when would you be in a position to make these tables available for sale?