Betting System Concepts For Successful Football Betting

Imagine a trawler boat casting its net into the depths of a vast lake. Although we know the fish are down there, ultimately, the only question that can ever be answered with any certainty is, “How many fish were caught?”

We cannot say in advance with accuracy how many fish there are to catch or, after the event, how many fish were not caught.

Puppy counting goldfish jumping into a bowl from a laptopImage: tobkatrina (Shutterstock)

The Mindset Required for Successful System Betting

System betting is similar to fishing with a net.

Whilst it is possible to say how many bets were won over the course of a full season (how many fish were caught), it is equally easy to see how many opportunities to win were missed (bets not placed; fish not caught), and how many winning opportunities there were in total (how many fish there were to catch).

With this much control over the available information we assure you that it is possible to identify, formulate, refine, test, and finally employ a successful betting system.

The ultimate goal of system betting is to create a strategy which becomes just a numbers exercise, where obtaining the highest price for the desired outcome becomes the primary objective to achieve ‘value’ and to gain maximum reward.

Betting is an Approximate Science

The equatorial circumference of the Earth is widely accepted as 40,075 km. However, the circumference from pole to pole is slightly less as the Earth is not exactly spherical.

Furthermore, if you were to bring into the equation all the geographical features in the path of the measuring tape and calculate the circumference including every peak and trough of every mountain and valley, then this would provide yet another different value. Which is the correct measurement?

Motor car producers test their vehicles and provide guarantees but occasionally they get it wrong and mass returns are ordered to rectify a common fault.

Of course, a vehicle’s longevity also depends where in the world and on which terrain it is used, how it is driven and maintained, plus a host of other immeasurable factors.

If you were to ask a vehicle manufacturer how long a particular model will last it will be impossible for him to say with any degree of accuracy although he can predict that a rough percentage of vehicles will still be on the road in one year from now, less in two-years’ time, fewer in three-years’ time, and so on.

What we are trying to say is that too many extraneous factors prevent total accuracy with any mathematical calculation and scholars of math will readily agree that theirs is not an exact science; some allowance for error has to be accepted in any equation or calculation.

Likewise, successful betting can never be 100% accurate.

It is impossible to predict for sure the outcome of any one single event but it is much easier to say, for example, that between 40 and 50% of the 380 matches in league ‘X’ will be home wins next season based on the historical trend for that league.

This is where system betting or ‘blanket betting’ becomes interesting: Is it possible to create a system to catch as many of the 40-50% home wins as possible using the fewest number of wagers?

Understanding Bookmakers and Odds

Bookmakers publish their odds sometimes weeks ahead of the events in question.

These odds are based purely on historical events and pay no attention to future weather conditions, size of the crowd, team news, the appointed match officials, or the form of both teams affected by any interim matches.

The bookmaker’s art is in juggling historical statistics and odds only.

No-one has a crystal ball and you can be assured that the bookmaker’s main objective is to balance his books, not to accurately predict the outcome of each event.

Only by thinking like a bookmaker will you be able to compete on a level playing field with him.

Successful betting is all about grasping the relationship between events which have already happened and the bet prices of similar events about to happen.

Maintaining your own database of statistics is vital to identify events which occur with enough regularity to be considered as potential candidates for a betting system.

Only by logging the outcomes of different bets together with the odds offered for them at a known time can you ever hope to calculate the possible viability of a system and begin to think about filtering the results to obtain the best reward possible.

Finding a Betting System

For example, the statistics we keep reveal that just three scorelines account for around 70% of all half-time scores. It does not matter which top-flight league you look at, the same three scores just keep repeating themselves in more or less the same quantities per league, every season.

Can you guess what these three scorelines are? (Use the comments section below).

Regular patterns such as this are ideal for planning a betting system; in fact anything you can find which happens often enough and regularly enough to warrant continual betting on the same desired outcome for consistent profits.

It goes without saying that bookmakers are not stupid and it is rare to find a result over the course of time uniformly priced in your favour.

In other words, it is difficult to find an event which will be profitable when staking or risking the same amount on the same desired outcome in every match in a league during the course of an entire season. But this does sometimes happen, we can assure you.

learn to think like a bookmaker!

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Last Update: 15 July 2015

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5 Responses to “Betting System Concepts For Successful Football Betting”

  1. Stanley
    13 December 2016 at 4:10 pm #

    Hi friends
    Please I need information where I can get 3 odds daily,either from any website or from any individual.


  2. Manfred
    12 December 2016 at 7:02 pm #

    Hi mate,
    do you know a source where I can get historical over 2,5 goals final odds for major leagues?

    • Right Winger
      12 December 2016 at 8:16 pm #

      Hi Manfred,

      http://www.football-data.co.uk is the easiest resource = downloadable Excel sheets with Over/Under 2.5 odds. The average and maximum odds are shown under the columns located towards the far right of each sheet and entitled: BbMx>2.5; BbAv>2.5; BbMx<2.5; BbAv<2.5.

      http://www.oddsportal.com provides these odds for far more leagues, but the data is far harder to collate – each price must be manually scraped from their pages.

      Hope this helps!

  3. Soccerwidow's Bloke
    8 December 2014 at 8:57 pm #

    Yes, well done Denis. The most frequent half-time scores in any league are always 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1.

  4. Denis Manbode
    8 December 2014 at 2:00 pm #

    I guess the 3 scores are 0-0,1-0,0-1

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