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Utilising Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Spreadsheets: Lay in-play if the underdog scores first




There is a plethora of ways of utilising Soccerwidow’s Value Bet calculations to suit your personal strategy and interests. Here is another one of them…

A Trader’s Point Of View – Day 3: 3 October, 2012

On 3rd October the Widow posted the following bets on the German Betfair blog:

Value bet recommendations:
Back FT: Manchester City (odds: 1.97; ‘true’ odds: 1.88, probability: 53.3%)
Back FT: Under 3.5 goals (odds: 1.55; ‘true’ odds: 1.52, probability: 65.8%)

…but she also posted some stats to back these recommendations up

Man City’s last 30 home games (all competitions)
Man City wins: 24 (80%), Draws: 4 (13.3%), Away Wins: 2 (6.7%)

The early goal didn’t come so there was no value for me in backing under 3.5 goals. So, when the German side took the lead on 60 minutes, I saw my opportunity to lay them cheaply @ 1.50, giving me 30+ minutes for Man City to draw level or go on to win.

As a trader I’m more inclined to lay a team rather than back one, but only if the price is right. My reasoning behind this is that if I lay a team, it keeps the draw on my side and I then have two chances of a winning trade. But I’m not adverse to backing a team either.

On the 89th minute the Widow’s stats, showing only 6.7% of recent games lost at home by Man City didn’t disappoint, as the blue side of Manchester were awarded a penalty and ultimately drew the game.

My patience was rewarded and I closed the trade out for a profit:


Until next time.
Keep it green!


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Last Update: 6 October 2012

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