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HDAFU Tables: £20k in 214 days with the Winter Leagues


Following up the successful 2016 Summer League Campaign, here is our complete report on the 2016-17 Winter League Campaign, based on 18 different top flight leagues.

300x300 Illustration: 2016-17 Winter League Profit Curve2016-17 Winter League Profit Curve



We will try to avoid repeating what was said in the summer league article so that it is all new information for you here.

For the sake of completeness, you should still read and digest both reports for a full idea of our strategies and thought processes.

And you will find the current stock of available HDAFU tables via this link.



2016-17 Campaign Report

Measures of Risk

Before beginning to plan any portfolio or placing bets, you will need to review your analyses and rank the systems you have found according to risk exposure based on the values of the upper inflection point odds.

This will allow you to compile a portfolio with a healthy balance of risk, which is essential to the success of any investment plan.

Here is our rough guide:

  • Low Risk (Probability 45.00% or more; upper inflection point maximum odds of 2.22)
  • Low-medium Risk (Probability 44.99%-35.00%; upper inflection point maximum odds of 2.85)
  • Medium Risk (Probability 34.99%-22.50%; upper inflection point maximum odds of 4.44)
  • Medium-high Risk (Probability 22.99%-16.00%; upper inflection point maximum odds of 6.25)
  • High Risk (Probability 15.99% or less; upper inflection point odds above 6.25)

Discretion is used if a system does not fit these parameters or crosses two or more classifications – In these cases, the harmonic mean odds of all the games in the set is used as the benchmark to guage risk. The Excel formula for a range of odds in cells A1 to A100 would be: =HARMEAN(A1:A100)

Measures of Success

You will also need a definitive framework to be able to judge the final results.

For us, the final results of any league fall into four distinct categories:

  • Systems that achieve a six-season-high (i.e. profits larger than any of the previous five seasons). (Over-Achievers).
  • Those that make a profit over and above the size of the initial stake (£100 in our case), but fall short of six-season-high results. (Achievers).
  • Strategies that break-even or, record a tiny profit or loss up to the size of the initial stake (£100 in our case). (Zero-Sum).
  • Leagues that make a loss over and above the size of the initial stake. (Losers).

You can already see that two of these outcomes are favourable, one is neutral, and only one is detrimental.

2016-17 League-by-League Review

Let’s have a brief look at each league to see how our 22 systems fared. (Alphabetically according to the tab codes in the workbook):

1. AUS1 – Austria Bundesliga – Whole Season System

Risk: Medium-high

Only eight of 28 bets won, but this was enough to see a profit of £882.00. Hit rate and yield were both below the calculated averages and the resultant profit figure was lower than any of the five previous seasons’ figures.

Result: Achiever

2. BEL1 – Belgium Jupiler League – Whole Season System
Up to, but not including Europa League and Championship Group splits

Risk: Medium

Both the estimated hit rate (33 out of 97 bets won) and yield figures were surpassed by wide margins, leading to a six-season-high profit figure of £3,108.00.

Result: Over-Achiever

3. CZE1A – Czech Republic 1. Liga – First Half Season System
Up to the 04/12/2016 winter break

Risk: Medium

Nine out of 22 bets won, and whilst the hit rate and yield both outstripped expectations, the profit figure settled at £1,247.00, the fourth largest in the last six seasons.

Result: Achiever

4. CZE1B – Czech Republic 1. Liga – Second Half Season System
From 18/02/2017 start of the second half of the season

Risk: Low

This one suffered its worst result in the last six seasons, but the resultant loss was minimal at -£310.00.

Result: Loser

5. DEN1A – Denmark Superligaen – First Half Season System

Risk: Medium

This was the only system employed in this league purely because the format of the second half of the 2016-17 season was to change from previous seasons.

Although hit rate and yield were both below estimates, the system still recorded its third highest total for six seasons at £1,238.00.

There were twice as many bets than expected (largely due to the fact that around 40% more games than usual were played in the first half of the season to accommodate the new second half season format).

Result: Achiever

6. ENG1 – England Premier League – Whole Season System

Risk: High

This system suffered the longest losing streak we have ever encountered, almost 14% worse than expected, for a very painful 36 straight losses. (A six-season-low).

However, the situation was mostly recovered by three big winners all carrying odds of over 12.00, for a final loss of just -£32.00.

The last six bets of the season lost, but had only one of these been a winner, this system would have returned a profit. Small margins.

Result: Zero-Sum

7. FRA1 – France Ligue 1 – Whole Season System

Risk: Low-medium

Hit rate and yield were both below par, but the league turned in a steady performance for a profit of £1,634.00, ranked fifth largest in the last six seasons.

Result: Achiever

8. FRA2 – France Ligue 2 – Whole Season System

Risk: Low-medium

The same story as France Ligue 1, but with a profit of £2,801.00, for its third largest profit figure in six seasons.

This one was unusual for a much higher number of bets than expected. (215 vs. 119 estimate – Profit was at £2,523.00 after 119 bets).

Result: Achiever

9. GER1A – Germany Bundesliga 1 – First Half Season System
Up to 21/12/2016 winter break

Risk: Medium-high

Another below par system, but one that still achieved a profit of £1,098.00. (Fourth largest in six seasons).

Result: Achiever

10. GER1B – Germany Bundesliga 1 – Second Half Season System
From 20/01/2017 start of the second half of the season

Risk: Medium

The very rare inclusion of a system with two non-profitable seasons (the oldest two) in the previous five.

It featured one more bet than expected, which won, to total one more winner than expected. Hit rate and yield both exceeded estimates for a profit of £1,294.00. (Fourth largest in six seasons).

Result: Achiever

11. GRE1 – Greece Super League – Whole Season System

Risk: Low-medium

The hit rate here was almost 8% below estimate and resulted in the worst performance for six seasons, and a loss of -£819.00.

Result: Loser



Last Update: 2 August 2017

Categories:1x2 Betting Betting Advice Betting Systems Case Studies



223 Responses to “HDAFU Tables: £20k in 214 days with the Winter Leagues”

  1. Scott
    23 October 2017 at 2:39 pm #

    I hope things have turned around for people on here btw. I’ve been profitable the last two weekends (+5 points last weekend, +3 so far this weekend with the possibility of one bet to go on this evening).

    42.9% strike rate this weekend, which again is broadly in line with expectations.

    Obviously a long way to go to turn things around, but it at least feels like things have started to settle down. There was even a draw in Ligue 2 ffs….! Serie A and Ligue 1 look to finally be pulling their weight too from a low risk strategy perspective, although Turkey is still all over the shop.

    Anyway, hopefully others are starting to see an improvement too.

    • Simon
      24 October 2017 at 11:35 am #

      Scott,

      Last week for me was a good week, registering like you, about 5 units of profit. Unfortunately this week has seen a loss of 1 point so far, although I have a few remaining bets for the Serie A and Jupiler league to go. The last 2 weeks have been more stable it seems, although the La Liga Underdog system, Eridivisie draw system and Turkey Super Lig favorite system are still the main culprits in that it’s just lose, lose, lose with those systems.

      Anyway, its encouraging that things have stabilized over the last 2 weeks. Hope this continues for everyone involved.

      In terms of the Value Calculator vs the HDAFU tables, for me they do different things – look at value in different ways. The HDAFU tables really focus in on long term historical profitable strategies, picking out odds ranges where money can be made. So everything in that strategy needs to be bet on.

      The value calculator looks at individual teams and recent performance across home/away games, with the head to head factor important. So it takes into consideration things the HDAFU tables do not do so specifically.

      For me, validating the HDAFU system selections with the VC would bring into play too much conflict. I haven’t tried it out myself to validate each HDAFU system selection with the VC, so I couldn’t say if they would line up perfectly and both would confirm value bets on the same selection. If they did, that would be great, but where they were in conflict, how do you decide what to be on?

      I wouldn’t be comfortable with mixing two strategies founded on different selection criteria. I would only want to use one or the other. The HDAFU tables prove what is profitable or not, and I’m not sure it is necessary to use outside means based on different methodology to improve the profitability or mitigate losing streaks.

      I do have the value calculator, but personally found it too time consuming to use to generate enough bets. HDAFU tables for me take a lot of time out of the day to day analysis. So other than the initial studying required to compile the portfolio, all I need to do is place my bets.

      Either way, whichever method someone uses, I hope it is profitable!

      • Scott
        24 October 2017 at 11:49 am #

        Hi Simon – I managed to automate the value calculator to a certain extent. I still need to put in last week’s results, but once I do that if I select the home and away teams on the main VC page it’s formula-driven to pull back the last 25 home and away fixtures and the last 10 H2H matches for the 2 team. So it populates the Home, Away and H2H sheets automatically and by extension the main value calculator page gets auto-populated too.

        It has a warning system in place too, so it tells you on the face of the calculator if there aren’t enough consecutive games or enough H2H match-ups in the last 10 years.

        Took a while to do but it certainly shaves some time off the work required to get an answer out of the VC. I’ve got different VCs set up for each different league.

        Anyway, back to the HDAFU stuff – you’re probably loath to make any changes at this point, but rather than underdogs in La Liga, I went with Away teams as a strategy and it’s proving to be one of my most profitable strategies. Like I say, you might not want to make any changes, but thought I’d mention it just in case.

        Netherlands and Turkey have been a shitshow for me too, although I’ve managed to stop a lot of the bleeding on the former by eliminating a couple of teams from the strategy and refining the odds range slightly. It’s still losing though – I’m planning to swap strategies for the second half of the season in Netherlands….it can’t come quick enough! Turkey…I mean last Friday when Goztepe were 3-1 up with 10 minutes to go, I thought surely this one is in the bank. 3-3. Unreal haha!

      • Audiendi
        24 October 2017 at 12:29 pm #

        Hey Simon,

        Very good point. Great if it works but if there’s conflict then what to do?

        Maybe just go with whichever options appear to be the least worst within the system.

  2. Scott
    23 October 2017 at 2:08 pm #

    I’ve got both the VC and the HDAFU tables. My interpretation is that the HDAFU tables allow you to identify a particular strategy with inherent value – for this odds range, the bookmakers have been systematically mis-pricing over the course of the past 5 seasons as the strike rate achieved exceeds that implied by the odds.

    However, in order for the HDAFU approach to work, once you have identified a strategy you need to place a bet on every single match that falls within the odds ranges defined by that strategy. Only then will you give yourself a chance of repeating the success that you’ve identified from past 5 seasons history.

    Introducing the value calculator as an overlay would mean intentionally skipping certain matches, but these might be the very matches that end up making that strategy a success in the current season.

    Remember, you’ve identified your HDAFU strategies as being successful without the use of the VC. If you then introduce the VC in your live season, you’re no longer following the strategy that you’ve identified.

    It’s an interesting idea though.

    • Audiendi
      24 October 2017 at 11:02 am #

      Hey Scott,

      Thanks for the reply.

      I agree that if the use of the value calculator forces you to deviate from the strategy prescribed by the HDAFU tables, then that simply defeats the purpose of that tool. And I agree the HDAFU tables are profitable The general premise is very sound.

      But within the systems you use, based on those HDAFU tables, are there not ample instances where you have to choose between multiple bets?

      So, for example, suppose one of the systems you use is the Germany – Underdogs, as our fellow contributor to this blog Simon uses. Suppose, each round the bettor places two bets in this system as part of their portfolio. There will only be certain number of bets which are suitable (as per the guidance of the HDAFU tables) each round for this system. But is it uncommon to find only two bets suitable?

      Or would the HDAFU help you identify more than two bets which might be suitable and you simply have to choose two? As I haven’t started using the tables, I can’t say.

      If you’ve only got two bets out of two bets to choose from, then fat lot of good the value calculator does.

      But if the HDAFU tables suggest you have a reasonable choice of, say, 4 bets… well that’s where the value calculator might be useful.

      Does that make sense?

  3. Audiendi
    16 October 2017 at 1:06 pm #

    Hey Rado, Simon and Jo,

    I’m sorry to hear that the betting isn’t going well.

    May I ask if you use the value calculator to calculate the odds of each bet (in your portfolio) before you placing the bet?

    • jo
      16 October 2017 at 4:45 pm #

      Hi Audiendi,

      No. Someone asked your question before in some article and answer from Right Winger was HDAFU tables and value calculator have different approaches of what to bet on. As far as I remember Soccerwidow is going to release 1X2 betting course, like O/U course. Before that and before you learn everything in it I don’t think it’s a good idea to use them both. If you read O/U course, there is a chapter under this name: “Everything that glitters is not gold” i.e. not every bet marked as “value” bet by the calculator is truly a value bet. I doubt if it will be a good idea to use them both anyway. It’s probably better to filter out teams that perform too bad consistently in any system and this should be value in the long run.

      • Audiendi
        17 October 2017 at 3:54 am #

        Hi Jo,

        I saw that response. What I’m getting at is…

        If things aren’t going well with the portfolio, why not use the value calculator now and then just as an extra precaution.

        It may be a bit arduous to use it on the entire portfolio. But, for instance, why not use it for the high risk bets? Might be able to improve the hit rate.

        • acepoint
          22 October 2017 at 12:20 pm #

          Hi Audiendi,

          VC and HDAFU are totally different attempts. VC is used for a single match and is based on short-term home and away team history plus H2H results. HDAFU is based on league odds and only works in a long-term strategy.

          You can’t compare both strategies and you also can’t use VC to confirm or deny a single game in the HDAFU.

          • Audiendi
            23 October 2017 at 1:20 pm #

            Hi acepoint,

            But isn’t one of the main purposes of the HDAFU tables to identify value in bets in the long run?

            I might be completely wrong about this. I have purchased the value calculator, which I test on random matches now and then, but I haven’t bought the HDAFU tables yet. So if I’m missing the point completely, I apologise.

            From what I have learnt, I would be rather surprised if you can’t use the value calculator INDEPENDENTLY to test out individual bets in your portfolio which have already been selected on the basis of the HDAFU tables.

            If a bet has value, wouldn’t both tools discern that the bet has value?

            As I understand it, one tool is simply more precise (but laborious to use) than the other. Can they not be used in tandem to some extent in order to sharpen the edge that you get?

            Why not try this. Provisionally, pick all your bets with the HDAFU tables. Then, if a particular system is doing very poorly (e.g. favourites), why not cross-check the bets you’ve chosen with the value calculator before placing them?

            I’m no scientist. My understanding of scientific practice is, however, that it is built upon testing hypotheses (e.g. bets) with multiple tools to gain an idea of if there is a large amount of corroborating evidence or conflicting evidence.

  4. Scott
    16 October 2017 at 10:14 am #

    I had a winning weekend, 5 points up with 12 winning bets from 27 placed, which is more or less in line with the expected strike rate. 2 more bets likely today – one favourite, one underdog, so not yet certain what the end point for the weekend will be.

    Obviously it’s way too early to be talking about a corner having been turned, but certainly the most enjoyable weekend I’ve had on this for a while. The fact that I’ve dropped stakes significantly means that the recovery in terms of £ value hasn’t been great, but I’ll take any win at this stage.

    The adjustments that I’ve made to France Ligue 2 and Netherlands, in terms of chopping out teams that don’t work with the strategies has definitely helped stop the bleeding too.

    • Right Winger
      16 October 2017 at 2:40 pm #

      Hi Scott,

      Your results sound similar to ours, and like Jo above, several of our systems currently out of sync, are only a win or two away from being profitable.

      Now that the international breaks are over, I fully expect things to settle down. For me, the acid test is the next 4-5 weeks. If the expected uniformity to proceedings does not return during this period, then I will have to make decisions on the dysfunctional systems.

      I wonder whether it might be the early start to most of the winter leagues (for WC 2018), which has caused the stuttering start to this season? It will certainly be something I will look at once the end of the season arrives.

  5. Rado
    16 October 2017 at 9:18 am #

    Saturday was a glimpse of fresh hope with a few high odd bets winning, but Sunday ate up most of the profit again. So I am back to status quo. The favorites in Italy and France are a complete disaster.

  6. Kevin Howe
    15 October 2017 at 10:56 pm #

    Hi guys , i purchased 2 or 3 HDAFU tables at the start of the season and have been paper trading out of interest , i have also been following all of your progress this winter season , after studying and thinking about this way of betting for months , i am afraid i have no long term faith in the profitability , alot of the inflection points we are betting on fall below the sharp Asian lines ie Pinnicle and Sbo these are the most liquid markets and therefore the most accurate odds unless you are beating there odds at kick off you will not make any money. I may be missing something and i hope that i am wrong .

    • Right Winger
      16 October 2017 at 2:30 pm #

      Hi Kevin,

      I’m not quite sure what you mean by “the inflection points we are betting on fall below the sharp Asian lines”.

      Pinnacle and SBOBET are both in the pool of bookmakers we have used to formulate the HDAFU Tables, and both are at or near the top of the Asian contingent when it comes to offering best odds/low margins.

      But usually, these type of bookmakers are only top dogs on one or two of the 1X2 lines at a time, and very, very rarely best on all three odds at the same time.

      Of course, the odds captured for use in the tables are a benchmark only. If you wish to lower the benchmark to match more closely a ‘middle range’ of bookmakers, then use the Odds Toggle function to reset results/expectations.

      On the betting side, everyone naturally seeks to obtain the best odds they can buy.

      Only by comparing the odds bought with the highest legitimate odds available at the time can you then say that a system is hampered by the list of bookmakers at your disposal.

      Again, using the Odds Toggle function will help you decide whether you do have the ammunition with which to hit the targets created by your chosen inflection points.

      Lastly, whilst agreeing with you about the great liquidity at places like Pinnacle and SBOBET, there is no connection between liquidity and ‘most accurate odds’. No single bookmaker can provide best price on any market (home, draw or away) all of the time. Each has to balance their portfolio, and prices for every betting option change constantly throughout the day with all bookmakers, especially quickly on more popular events.

      Ultimately, we are dealing with a fluid market articulated by demand and supply, with necessary competition between bookmakers for market share. The likes of Pinnacle and SBOBET may turn over far greater amounts of money to gain the same net outcome as a middle-of-the-road bookie such as Ladbrokes – the same business model, just with different strategies.

      In short, you don’t need to constantly beat Pinnacle or SBOBET odds – you will do it naturally anyway because bookies such as this are never best price on any one line all of the time.

      I hope this helps.

  7. Simon
    15 October 2017 at 10:27 pm #

    Rado, Jo,

    Similar experience for me this weekend. Friday resulted in 1 win from 7 and cost me about 5 points of profit. Saturday was a great day and actually hit 60% of my bets to gain about 15 points. Today was horrible and I won 3 of 12, giving back most of Saturdays profits.

    The hit rates from day to day are quite volatile, as in we can’t seem to string a few good days together. I can’t recall back to back winning days. And from week to week recently, the hit rates are way under what we have all projected.

    Totting up my results this week I came out with a few units profit, but am still around 30 points in deficit.

    Had today been a bit better, this week would have been exactly what I needed to get back on track, but it wasn’t to be.

    Jo, as you probably read in my previous post, I had modified my expectation in as much as I will be happy to simply right the ship and cover my expenses. Anything above that will be a pleasant surprise.

    I just look at it his way. We all purchased good information, and have been provided with a lot of help here in getting our portfolios up and running. I appreciate that a lot. Understandably those us of us having a worse than expected time of things are disappointed and upset. I’m trying to just detach from the results and wait for the hit rates to improve.

    Saturday for me was a glimpse of what can happen when things go right. I just need a few of those days in a row to happen to get me back to even.

    This week for me is pretty much done as there may be just 2 more bets to make tomorrow.

    One thing to point out about right wingers campaign, was yes, it got off to a brilliant start, then slowed down during the middle, to then experience 30 points of loss in the last 4 weeks of the campaign. I don’t suppose for a minute any campaign will show the same pattern as the last one. So whilst we have seen a good start, followed by a really bad period that has put us at overall loss, perhaps with patience we will see an upswing in results.

    At this point patience is all there really is left to employ.

    • jo
      16 October 2017 at 12:58 am #

      Hi Simon,

      when I check how much extra wins I need to be in profit on each losing weekend usually it’s really not a lot, depending on odds 3 extra wins would be just enough with actual hit rate being still quite far away from projected 41%. It’s really crazy how differently the next year portfolio can perform compared to the previous year. On Saturday I won 7 bets out of 13, 3 wins produced profits less than 100 units each and the day was still in profit. Success is not so far away most of the time except that horrible weekend 2 weeks ago, but moving back and forth for prolonged period of time is really tough.

  8. jo
    15 October 2017 at 8:37 pm #

    Another bad weekend. Not as bad as 2 weeks ago, but in the best case scenario after 2 estimated bets left tomorrow I will have a loss of -500. In case remaining bets lose, I will be -1400 this weekend. Currently I have won 9 bets out of 30, 30% hit rate. None of the high odds won, except one bet I decided to skip. Last 2 rounds were really poor, this Friday was loss, Saturday profit, Sunday ruined everything again. My portfolio did not perform as bad as Rado’s since I had winning days and weekends during the last month, but I don’t think it will be any easier to recover from losses. Exactly this day 1 year ago Right Winger had 12600 in his balance, if I get back to 0 before Christmas, it will be fantastic result.

  9. Rado
    13 October 2017 at 9:19 pm #

    Again, a disastrous day. I hoped that after the big international break things will pick up, but today all 5 of my bets lost! I can’t believe this is happening – currently I sit at 15% less hitrate than the projected one! IMPOSSIBLE!

    • Simon
      13 October 2017 at 11:49 pm #

      Rado,

      I made 7 bets today, only 1 bet won, which was a 2.12 favorite. So another day ending in a heavy loss. My portfolio hit rate is 14-15% less than the projected hit rate, which as you say is nothing short of a disaster when it comes to looking at the bankroll being depleted. My stakes have been reduced priorate this round of games in an attempt to stop the bleeding.

      I really don’t know what to expect with the hit rate in the short term – they really are in a prolonged slump right now. I have multiple systems performing to the level where they have already exceeded the longest experienced losing streak. I fear that unless the hit rates start to improve soon, some of the systems will be doomed to fail, with big losses incurred, and it will also be harder for the bankroll to recover, when its most historically profitable systems have failed.

      It’s why I have abandoned the notion of making a lot of money from this venture, but instead will be happy to recoup my losses and cover the outlay on the tables. Then I can decide whether I want to do this type of betting method again next year.

      • Rado
        14 October 2017 at 4:41 pm #

        Don’t bother. I am dropping this nightmare as soon as the end of this weekend. After the 5 out of 5 lost bets yesterday, today I started with another 5 out of 5 lost, which totals to 10 straight losses across all systems! I hate to admit it, but it seems to me the cause is lost beyond all hope. I spent a tremendous amount of time trying to understand the tables, researching, reading and waiting for the final minutes before kickoff to place the bets. I’ve been committed to this endeavor with all I’ve got and in the end not only did I not win a penny, but accumulated horrendous losses, with not a single week, not even a single DAY in the last month producing any profit. It’s been only losses, losses, losses. I know betting has bad periods, but not to have a single winning day in an entire month, a hitrate almost 20% below the projected one, and only waiting and hoping for the “next high odd lucky win” doesn’t cut it for me anymore. I am completely sure that even if I continue till the end of the season, it will be impossible to bring back the enormous losses the systems have suffered so far. It is simply not possible to bring back 30 units negative back. Rightwinger didn’t at any single point sit at -3000 pounds of balance, nor did he have a month with such a loss. That brings me to the conclusion that either the results of his campaign are forged, or that we are having such a unprecedentedly bad year that the losses are already beyond repair.

  10. LeBo
    12 October 2017 at 5:06 pm #

    Hey

    My campaign did comparatively well when I see the results you mentioned in your comments. I did not split the leagues in two halves. I always analyzed the whole season of each league. If you want to follow my campaign, just visit http://betlist.atwebpages.com .

    • Right Winger
      16 October 2017 at 2:50 pm #

      Hi LeBo,

      Very interesting results – thanks for sharing them with us. I shall certainly be keeping an eye on your campaign as it unfolds and would also recommend it to others on this thread.

      Thanks again.

  11. Alex
    11 October 2017 at 10:16 pm #

    Well, unfortunately for me it seems like that’s the end of the road as far as real money goes for the moment. The last two weekends, as they have for everybody else, have decimated my bankroll and I actually can’t afford to get another full round of bets on.

    I only ended up picking seven systems due to lack of funds so always knew I was taking a risk in terms of balance of my portfolio, but I never truly expected to see four of my seven systems equal or better their longest losing streak at the same time! So for me it’s time to paper trade and keep an eye on it, build up my bankroll via other means, and then possibly return for a second half of the season portfolio. Good luck to everybody continuing!

    • Simon
      12 October 2017 at 2:48 pm #

      Alex,

      The run of luck, where underdog and favourite systems across the majority of top leagues are failing has been what has cost us. The underlying premise of the portfolio is that systems support each other, and we just aren’t seeing that support.

      I skipped betting on any games on the Sunday of the last round of games, but tallying things up to include those games, my portfolio is down 34 points, which is 34% of my bankroll.

      I allotted a bankroll of 100 points to this venture. I have decided to play the percentages and hope that a hit rate of 17% (last weeks results) will get better. So I will press on and alter my stakes to reflect each stake still being 1% of bankroll. I will just have to accept winnings per bet will be less until I experience a good run of higher hit rates.

      At this point I will be happy to dig myself out of this hole, break even for the campaign and cover the cost of the tables purchased.

      Wishing us all the best of luck!

      • Alex
        12 October 2017 at 9:30 pm #

        Good luck to you Simon! You seem to have done the sensible thing and erred on the side of caution regarding bankroll management. I went for a more aggressive approach, and whilst I knew I was taking a bit of a risk I never expected such an overwhelming failure to all my systems at the same time.

        You’re correct, that lack of support from the low risk systems is just compounding the problems with the higher risk systems. In fact, the only one of my systems performing well is my Portuguese one, but bets in that one are very limited due to the small odds range so it’s barely even scratched the sides of the losses from the other systems.

        Hopefully your perseverance will pay off. I’m heading back to other pursuits to rebuild my bankroll, and then hopefully I can put together a promising second half season portfolio and be a bit more cautious with my bankroll.

  12. Audiendi
    5 October 2017 at 1:01 pm #

    Hey guys,

    I’m sorry to hear that your portfolios aren’t going too well right now. I hope things get better.

    Should you read this post, may I ask, are all your systems based on the 1 x 2 full-time market?

    Because if things are horrendously volatile in that market, maybe try the half-time market? I’ve heard tell that it’s stabler and easier to make predictions for. Although I’m not sure if the HDAFU tables cater for it (I’m yet to purchase those, I’m still doing the Fundamentals of Sports Betting).

    And, of course there’s over/under markets. Maybe they’re steadier?

    I’m not sure how lucrative the odds for those respective markets tend to be. But maybe they enhance the chances of a steady profit?

    If the ‘favourites’ aspect of your system isn’t getting far, why not swap it for one of those systems?

    Anyway, I still have a lot to learn and this might run contrary to the portfolio idea. But I thought I’d throw it out there for you to consider in the hope it might help.

    Happy hunting!

  13. Olly
    4 October 2017 at 2:32 pm #

    I’m having a similarly tough time of it, my running totals as follows:

    Holland: – 6.2 points
    Ligue 1: -6.5 points
    Ligue 2: -25.5 points
    Turkey: +4 points
    Italy: -1.5 points
    Germany: +9 points
    Belgium: -3 points.

    29.7 points down after 6 weeks of betting. I joined late and have only a small portfolio as was reluctant to shell out for alot of spreadsheets as my first time doing this.

    I am loathe to paper trade going forward as feel that if I do that will guarantee an upturn in results. But am finding waking up to check results more stressful than it should be! I have been reducing stakes and will continue to do this I think. I’m based in Australia so difficult for me to place bets within the hour prior to kick off and normally place between 1 and 5 hours before.

    I have no issues with this really, as was my decision to sign up for it and my choice to put my money at risk. It’s clear though that a decent bank is required and I’m sure I read that a 20 point bank would be sufficient. I don’t think that is enough and would advise a 50 point bank minimum.

    I don’t normally like International breaks but will enjoy this one and will be a chance to reflect and evaluate.

    Good luck all!

  14. jo
    3 October 2017 at 5:36 pm #

    Hi Scott,

    how suddenly leagues and results began to deteriorate, so suddenly they can start performing perfectly for some time, beyond any expectations. No one knows what next rounds will bring. I lost 27 bets out of 30 last weekend and to win 27 out of 30 in the next round is also possible. Of course it’s not very realistic, but 20 wins still would be fantastic, making 66% hit rate. I did hit 64% in my summer league once and it happened exactly when I came back to 0 balance from my 3.5 months struggle. After such a long frustrating period I did not expect such a good hit rate, but it it did happen and balance curve rocketed to the sky. With brief struggles the curve kept rising until now. Bad results in winter leagues urges me to make a pause, because I naturally expect the next round to perform badly as well, but based on my summer experience I can’t stop thinking, if I make a pause, I may regret it as well. Statistics does not care what happened and can offset horrible performance and losses in a stormy way right after them. I’m not sure what I’m going to do.

    • Simon
      3 October 2017 at 9:56 pm #

      Jo,

      I’ve been continuing to read peoples comments on their situations with the portfolio approach. The ones sharing their experiences are all exactly in the same boat more or less. If anyone reading the comments here is indeed making a healthy profit, please do share with us the constituent elements of your portfolio, as I’m extremely intrigued to know what leagues and systems are turning a good profit. Perhaps there are a few leagues other than the 12 I analyzed where profits are being made.

      I’m like you in my view that switching over to paper testing could end up leaving you feeling burned, as what happens if the hit rate spikes next round and you end up leaving profits on the table. That would be immensely infuriating.

      Whether right or wrong, I think if a method of betting or system approach is viable, then it would be successful with flat staking without the need to alter stakes, and certainly without the need to stop betting to wait for better times. A lot of us are loathe to see another week or 2 of very low hit rates, which would further decimate our bankrolls, hence are considering or have already decided to paper test, or suspend betting entirely.

      I don’t know if this method of betting is always prone to such volatility in terms of hit rates dipping so significantly across all systems at once. Perhaps it is, or perhaps this early season is just a one off disaster, that won’t repeat again. I suppose paper testing would save us money this season and allow us to decide if a portfolio approach is viable.

      I know RW had a great campaign as illustrated. But that is one example. All the real life anecdotal evidence we have seen here so far suggests it is tough going – and that worries me. As mentioned, I really would be interested to hear about successes thus far, so as to perhaps encourage me to plug away with my own portfolio rather than ditch it entirely.

      On the note of the stop loss. I had been comparing flat staking alongside a stop loss, and for my own portfolio, it didn’t take much difference to the bottom line. Of course, the flat staking lost more than it would have done had I lowered stakes last week. But if I were now to lower my stakes based on 7 straight losing weeks, my stake would be halved. Looking forward that makes it incredibly tough to make back 25 points of losses, where in effect that 25 points is now 50 points at half stakes. Recovery of the bank to break even seems optimistic. Which for me is why I feel really turned off from carrying on as it seems I have a mountain to climb to come back from these losses just to break even.

      Tough decisions indeed!

      • jo
        4 October 2017 at 7:35 pm #

        Hi Simon,

        if you still decide to continue with real money and if I were you, I would probably halve my stakes. In case the next round performs well, I would still make some money and would not become infuriated, because some piece of the cake would be in my plate. In case the next round brings loss again, it won’t look too much for you, hopefully. Or just reduce the stakes to the amount you don’t care to lose in case horrible round like this happens twice in a row.

        I think stop-loss & ratchet mechanism may not make a big difference compared to flat stakes if system is losing at the time, but it should be quite a difference in case portfolio is in profit from the start and pretty much in a constant rise. You can check the numbers in Soccerwidow’s winter campaign. And you probably compared flat stakes with stop-loss with your current results, not so far away from from the start of the season. Major European leagues played about 7 rounds so far. They have about 34-38 rounds. At the end of a season it should be quite a difference. Also numerical difference may not look big, but in percentages it may look much more. Difference between 1 and 2 is just 1, not a lot, but in percentages it’s 50%. And it’s really a lot.

        Simon, whatever you decide to do, I hope it’s gonna be right decision.

        • Simon
          4 October 2017 at 9:46 pm #

          Jo,

          As far as I can tell, the ratchet only comes in to play to make use of profits accrued. I.e if the bank is increased you put it to work more by putting more of it into play. And assuming hit rates stay consistent you would reap benefits of it. And if hit rates start to drop, you cut back stakes to protect profits.

          The issue for me with the stop loss is that when you reduce stakes as your bankroll is decreasing and going into loss, it becomes ever harder to make profits. The reduction of stakes does help you “stay in the game”, but when you are winning a pittance with each winning bet its harder for the bank to recover to break even. A prolonged winning run would enable one to increase stakes, but at present having just one winning week seems far away.

          If stakes are reducing week by week over an extended time, then that for me is an indication of a failing system.

          My thinking at present is not to quit though. I must admit over the weekend I simply laughed to myself as my two final bets went from wins to losses due to injury time goals, and at that point I chose to take Sunday off. Frustration was at a high and those final results were a real kick in the proverbials. So my position is that the bank I had set aside for the portfolio is down by 30%, but, if I can claw back and break even, or even cover the cost of the tables I purchased, then we get out of this situation unscathed and look to next season.

          I’m not a reckless guy, at the moment the bankroll is intact and sitting there safe and sound. No chasing losses, no trying to get it back quick. The international break is a great time to clear the mind, get rid of any annoyance from this bad run, and hope things even out.

          The money I have set aside for this campaign is part of a larger amount I have available for betting with, completely separate from personal money….so if it loses it loses. I’m more upset that the system I spent so long trying to perfect is failing….I’d be equally frustrated if just paper testing and seeing these results believe me. Because I really do believe this concept.

          My stakes at the start of the campaign were 1% of bankroll. So I will just rest and make stakes 1% of the current bankroll, and roll with that and hope I see a surge in hit rates, as right now it seem to have bottomed out and is due for a rebound.

          Let’s see!

  15. tp
    3 October 2017 at 5:21 pm #

    hi all

    I gave up staking on real money 4 weeks ago. even with the stop loss in place, you lose a larger amount and with reduced stakes after, it will take a tremendous turnaround to achieve parity after these results.
    I understand RW pointing towards the odds etc but in my experience it is the strike rate, especially france 2…….. it honestly looks like the French league has said we will have a result and play on till someone wins!!!!

    the short odds systems let me down badly to and I’m not touching this again unless I see a marked improvement.

  16. Scott
    3 October 2017 at 2:46 pm #

    For my part, I’m still desperately clinging on to the idea that the whole thing might start to right itself. There’s the odd glimmer:

    – favourites in Turkey have started to improve
    – draws in Belgium, the same

    But these are being more than offset by a terrible run in Ligue 2 (draws) and the Netherlands (draws). Honestly though, if I cut these two systems out I would be more or less break even.

    I’ve made amendments to both of the above for the last weekend of results, removing a couple of teams and revisiting the odds range for the Netherlands, which has certainly stemmed the tide of losses in Holland -there seems to be an absolute refusal to draw games for the most part in the Eredivisie so far this season. It was still 4 bets, 4 losses from those two systems at the weekend, but early days for this new changed setup.

    Anyway, I’m not a million miles away from moving to just paper testing, and I might actually use the international break to revisit the original spreadsheets and see how other strategies would have performed to date (ones I haven’t selected), particularly for those two leagues. If there’s anything particularly compelling, I might switch, although I’m inclined to stick with plan.

    Completely understand people stepping back though, it has been a very rough start to the season. I do sympathise with RW’s position too though – I was inputting results a couple of weeks back and noticed that the Dutch league was only in Round 5 or something, and thought to myself how early in the season it was to be despairing. Don’t get me wrong, I’m despairing….I’m just aware how early it is to be doing it!

    RW, any thoughts on the idea of considering switching strategy at this stage of the season? Is it too early, and best to stick it out. Of course another option is to move to paper testing on just the two most problematic strategies and continue to place bets on the others…? Any thoughts appreciated.

  17. Daniel
    2 October 2017 at 12:53 pm #

    Hey guys,

    it is now obvious that everyone is having a bad time with the current state of the majority of systems chosen for this season winter portfolio. I suggest to everyone to continue their current campaign on paper without committing further money to it until it becomes clear that things are going in a different direction. Save your main asset (your bankroll) and wait until the systems starts to show more consistent profits over the near future, and start to bet again when the storm seems over. I guess this is the safest and smartest course of action until we can be confident about our portfolios making money. The principle of the tables is very sound and logic, so eventually i am sure things will change, but for now it is better to sit on the bench and wait for a better time to start betting again. I also really would like to know Right Winger’ s thoughts on the matter and his advices to what is the best course of action to take right now.

    • Right Winger
      2 October 2017 at 9:14 pm #

      Hi Daniel,

      I think I was writing my reply to the others whilst you were sending this. Please refer to mine above of 2.58pm today for further thoughts.

  18. jo
    2 October 2017 at 9:30 am #

    Hi Right Winger,

    in your 10 August 2017 at 5:07 pm reply to Dennis’ question isn’t it too optimistic to place bets 5% size of the bank, you said it’s not an unreasonable sum. My experience of this weekend and I think for many others is that it’s way too much and leads to disaster. Had I placed 5% stakes of my bank, I would’ve lost 77% of the bank from 0 balance.

    In another reply to AM0751 on 25 September 2017 at 8:49 pm in the article “2017-18 Winter League HDAFU Tables – For Sale!” you said :

    “Putting things into perspective, if a portfolio comprises ten systems, the straight chances of all ten systems having their worst performance for six seasons (the five seasons of historical results in the HDAFU table plus the current season) is 16.67% (one in six) to the power of 10 = 0.00000166%. This equates to one in 60.3 million.”

    What is the chance all 10, or 9 out of 10 systems produce loss in 1 weekend? I have 9 systems failed out of 12 I had to bet this weekend, assuming I did bet on 2 teams I decided to exclude from 2 different leagues. The real result is 11 systems failed out of 12 and 6.3% of the bank is gone. I think it’s way bigger chance than 0.00000166% and real percentage would really help to decide reasonable stakes for everyone. Since it can last not only 1 weekend as it goes now. And I have not a 10 systems, I have 17 of them in 1st half. Even that does not help.

    It’s tough thing to do, I knew it will be and probably no one wants to do it to win cents, however, it’s not easy to find golden mean regarding the stakes size.

    • Right Winger
      2 October 2017 at 2:58 pm #

      Hi Rado, Jo & Simon,

      I do understand your frustrations – believe me, I have been in the same situation many times in the past.

      At this stage, all I can advise is the following:

      1. Paper test your strategies from now on without committing money to them.

      2. Learn the full extent of what is going wrong:

      – Is it solely down to the hit rate?
      – Is the stake size too large, or too small?
      – Are you placing all of the relevant bets, or are some missed, or selected by accident?
      – Are you getting high enough odds on the bets that win?
      – Is the stop-loss mechanism working?
      – Do you need to reconsider the stop-loss thresholds?
      – Can the balance of risk within your portfolio be bettered?

      Regarding the last point, read the Odds Toggle article for how you can back-test the odds you have bought with each bet against the highest available at the time in order to see how this affects the simulation.

      Perhaps the bookmakers and exchanges you are using are too far adrift of the highest market odds? Work out what your odds toggle adjustment should be and enter it into your HDAFU table to see how the difference affects your strategy simulation. Does the affect of the toggle figure still make the system in question viable?

      Admittedly, a losing streak of any nature is hard to take in any walk of life, although I always advocate being a good loser in order to be a good winner.

      Keeping a cool head under pressure is vital in situations such as these and, although it may be hard to reflect honestly upon one’s own character, the question of whether you really have what it takes to be a gambler is something you should be seriously considering.

      If you really have analysed in detail exactly what is happening and can pinpoint exactly what is going wrong, then there is always a chance to fix the problem.

      Standing back and surveying the wreckage of a crash is definitely an emotive thing to do, but you must approach this task as objectively as possible and remain level headed about it in order to decide what to do next, and how to avoid a similar situation in the future.

      However, as a few have already mentioned, no-one who has bought into the HDAFU system betting approach is likely to have an identical portfolio of strategies or available bookmakers/exchanges with the next person.

      For those of you who are suffering right now, there are definitely others enjoying a more profitable run, but of course, many people prefer to keep their successes to themselves.

      For me, it is obviously disappointing to read negative comments and also to see people losing faith after just a few rounds of the season. Again, I do sympathise with you, and I also accept that deciding to drop the whole thing is a good idea if you have reached that conclusion. There is absolutely no shame in admitting that gambling is not for you.

      But please be aware that risk is with us all, everyday of our lives. Every time we cross the road, we are risking our safety. And many people don’t take crossing the road too seriously – it is taken for granted that all will be well.

      However, when it comes to financial risk, people are definitely more emotive by nature, purely because an element of greed, or anticipation of becoming richer, is included in the bargain.

      To summarise, take stock of the situation and realign your priorities, even if this means dropping gambling altogether. As we have said throughout this blog, there are easier ways of making money, and far better ways to spend our time.

      • jo
        2 October 2017 at 8:54 pm #

        Hi Right Winger,

        It’s solely down to the hit rate and there is nothing you can do. If your hit rate of the weekend is 10-16% compared to 40% predicted average there is no way even to brake even. I estimate there should be enough to hit 25-30% to be at zero result, of course it depends what odds you bet on and what odds win. But if you win just 3 bets out of 30, only high odds win can push you forward. However, you don’t bet them every week, nor every of them wins. When I struggled with my summer campaign for 3.5 months, only 4 out of 8 systems were spoiling results and the lowest hit rate of the week was 17%. In winter campaign 9 out of 16 currently running systems are failing badly and hit rate of this week is even lower with the double amount of systems in play compared to summer leagues. I need 7 more wins at low/middle range odds to be in slight profits and 30% average hit rate. Even after such a bad weekend. It looks so little compared to 335 bets I made so far and so little missing wins can have such a devastating effect. But with balance going back and forth like this with absolutely horrible last weekend, with no support from low odds systems it is really demoralising.

        Btw, one question: in your reply to Daniel 24 September 2017 at 8:33 pm above you said: “Yes, excluding individual teams is an option we occasionally exercise.”

        Why occasionally and not every time? I checked all of my systems and there some teams that are really asking to be excluded from betting.

        • Right Winger
          2 October 2017 at 9:12 pm #

          Hi Jo,

          Yes, we occasionally exclude a team from the results, but it depends on the size of the league.

          For example, if we were to take one or two outlier teams away from a 10 or 12 team league, it would deduct a larger percentage of games from a potential system than excluding teams from a 20 team league.

          Regarding your portfolio, I would really urge you to look also at the other points I mentioned above in mine of 2.58pm today. If you are absolutely sure that none of the other points are a factor, and that the performance is solely due to hit rate, then weather the storm by paper testing for the time being and only commit money again once you are back in complete control.

  19. Simon
    1 October 2017 at 7:37 pm #

    Rado,

    I feel your pain on this. If you had read my posts, you will know I had endured 6 straight losing weeks after accruing 24 units of profit in a month. This weekend has again been an unmitigated disaster. I entered the week being down 14 units of profit, and after a terrible Friday and Saturday I finished with being down 24 units of profit.

    Friday and Saturday were horrendous with 3 bets won out of 24 bets placed. At this point for the systems I have chosen, which I will add, are extremely profitable over the past 5 years, with most showing in a profit in ALL 5 seasons, they are just flat out not performing. As mentioned too, I modeled my portfolio balance on the extremely successful campaign fro RW, so I know i have no made mistakes in portfolio composition or balance of risk.

    I actually pulled the plug on real money bets at the end of Saturday, because I cannot any longer justify betting when the results in reality are showing me this venture is going to fail. In real terms I have seen a swing of 50 points of profit lost in 7 weeks. That is without doubt the worst results I have ever experienced in betting.

    The concept is sound, but reality here is anther thing. I can accept that underdogs and draws will show a lower hit rate, but for me and most others commenting, that is not being supported by the lower risk systems, as at present favorite systems showing high historic profits are performing awfully right now.

    Today has been another disaster for all the systems that I had running, but I have fortunately not incurred losses. But the picture would have been bleaker had I not terminated the venture. Even a stop loss is of no use when a selection of bets wins at rate of 3 in 24. Thats a devastating blow to any bank.

    The key for me here is past results do not guarantee future success. And as great as the hdafu tables are in principle for what they show, they can’t tell you if all the systems are going to line up losers at the same time, which seems to be happening now for most of us. And if the systems do recover, which is in major doubt, our banks will have likely been destroyed by this extremely unfortunate distribution of results.

    As for the conveyor belt analogy, well most of us definitely got on at the wrong time, and have paid the price for it. I’m stepping off the belt now and will enjoy not having the weekly headache of this thing gradually dying a death.

  20. Rado
    1 October 2017 at 3:26 pm #

    Another DISASTROUS week! I don’t know how your “campaigns” are going, but I am desperate beyond all belief. Out of my last 15 bets, only 2 won and I am another 10 stakes down this week! My bank is almost depleted, all systems with the exception of one are in ruins, performing not only way below expectations, but also NOT WINNING a single bet in the last two weeks! Not a single favourite wins their matches, there isn’t a single draw in France2 or The Netherlands, underdogs in Germany are losing heavily in every game. Everything is falling apart and I am 99% confident that there is no way the systems are going to recover from this annihilating string of losses. Any update on your campaigns will be appreciated.

    • jo
      1 October 2017 at 7:37 pm #

      Hi Rado,

      same fate with my campaign. 3 bets won out of 28. However 2 extra teams won I decided to exclude from betting and it was the reason leagues of those 2 teams produced loss this week. Had I won 5 bets out of 30, it would’ve not changed the whole picture a lot. 1708 units actual loss, would’ve been -1319 had I bet on those 2 excluded teams. Only 1 league produced profit, everything else was a straight way down to the bottom. The worst week so far, with estimated 2 bets left today and 1 tomorrow. So, very bad can even get worse. I will still place those bets, although I’m sceptical about any improvement this round.

  21. Daniele
    27 September 2017 at 1:48 pm #

    Hi all,

    After paper testing my second portfolio I can see more balanced results so far. The losing streaks have improved significantly, and although the portfolio is still about 5 or 6 units negative, it have coped much better with the last disastrous couple of weeks. Many system are underperforming but this is something we can’t do nothing about. I hope that things will change in the upcoming weeks. I will keep paper testing until I see there is a change of pace in the overall campaign, before committing again money to it. It is obvious that we entered a very bad run on almost all leagues, and I believe this has to adjust accordingly to the forecasts eventually. I guess the strength of a good portfolio is to endure this kind of pain as well, so we will see how things will turn in the future

  22. jo
    26 September 2017 at 12:01 am #

    For some reason I don’t have reply button to answer below to Simon’s 24 September 2017 at 10:43 pm comment so, I will reply here at the bottom:

    Simon, when I was going through that bumpy ride in my Summer campaign, I was also asking myself, does it really work? And so on. At the very start of campaign the curve went down and I thought, maybe something is wrong. Then I had brief success and thought, yes, this is working! During that 3.5 months struggle, I was in doubt and good mood multiple times. This is natural thinking of human kind, when matters go well, we think everything is fine, once something starts going against us, we may become mentally shaky. Currently my summer campaign is at record high. This week I made little profits at winter campaign as well and now my balance is at 0. As I found out in Soccerwidow’s campaigns, results of some leagues may be decided in the last games whether they are profitable or not and it can be big money either way. High odds systems can recover very quickly if you hit a winning streak. In my Netherlands strategy I would need only 3 straight wins at odds of 5 or even lower to be in profit. And the hit rate would still be 21.7% instead predicted average of 27.5%. This kind of recovery can happen in 1 round and a single day. Getting to this bottom with Netherlands where I am now took me 1.5 months. Of course, there may be no recovery and system will fail. Netherlands is my 3rd worst performing system at the time. My low/low medium risk strategies that are in my portfolio to help me survive losses are not working either: only 1 of 5 is profitable with overall -70 balance. If I would consider to reduce my stake size in case I’m not comfortable with the situation, I think I would do it only if my balance was somewhere around 0, how far around it’s up to each of us. What if you reduce it when it’s at -3000 after losing rounds and then winning rounds follow straight away? Like my own experience with one summer strategy I mentioned earlier and 6 winning bets in a row right after I decided to quit it. Then I thought with each winning simulation bet: if the system ends up in a profit, let this be a fee for the lesson!
    Put emotions aside before you change anything, think over what good and bad those changes would bring you when strategy is having bad and good times, also, changes or no changes can turn back against or go along with you at any time. As some of us found out it’s a good idea to exclude betting draw when Feyenoord and Ajax play home, however they can have “anomalous” year at any time. Eventually, if you have an edge against bookmakers and “right” portfolio, in the long run winning systems will recoup all the losing systems. So, if you want to reduce your stakes to feel more comfortable and your balance is somewhere around 0, reduce it.
    It remains to say what we endure now, we are doomed to face these kind of situations, unfortunately. Just be persistent and work to the end, there is no other way to be a winner in the long run.

    Best of luck to everyone!

    And it would be interesting to hear from Right Winger, how his winter campaign is performing?

    • Right Winger
      27 September 2017 at 2:52 pm #

      Hi Jo,

      I think it is best to say that our Winter League Campaign has largely been supported by the concurrent Summer League portfolio up to this point.

      Our situation is therefore probably not so bad as those embarking on their first set of systems, relying only on results from them.

      But we should also mention that some leagues have only played 4-5 games up to today’s date. It is still far too early to judge how the Winter Leagues will eventually perform, but suffice to say, I am not worried at this moment.

      The start of a season is notoriously difficult to forecast, but results will begin settling down, with teams assuming their natural place in the pecking order as either they become favoured in future matches for a good start to the season, or become heavier and heavier underdogs as the season progresses. Some will sit between these two extremities.

      League position in the EPL, for example, is slowly sorting itself out with the usual suspects beginning to rise to the top. And after only a handful of games, there are teams which have already earmarked themselves for a struggle during this campaign.

      Odds apportionment will also become more and more accurate as the season progresses. In other words, the bookmakers start off the season with a blank page in terms of how teams will perform, and can only begin to correct their initial odds estimates as each team shows its form.

      Whatever happens, the distribution curve of results should eventually resemble those of previous seasons.

      Hang on tight – it may be a bumpy ride to begin with, but with value on our side with almost every bet we place, the long-term outlook should be a profit of one size or another.

  23. SImon
    25 September 2017 at 9:46 am #

    Daniel,

    I couldn’t seem to reply to your note above, so will do so here at the bottom.

    It’s a very good point about the balance of the portfolio possibly being the cause of the problem. I’m not too sure though that is the case. When compiling my portfolio, I used the example campaign from RW as the benchmark for my own, and paid particular attention to the notes about defining the risk of a system. So a lot of my time was picking out the best systems from each league and arranging them into what I felt at the time was balanced. I think I did a pretty good job of mirroring what was a successful campaign that was presented to us here.

    To give a clear example of my portfolio. As mentioned in my last post, I have 13 systems currently active. I will list them by risk classification. I won’t mention odds or anything so as not to give away the tables content – but if you were to look at harmonic mean, the mean of the odds is low in the low risk and gets higher by risk classification.

    Russia – Favourite (Low risk)
    Italy Serie A – Favourite (Low risk)

    France Ligue 1 – Favourite (Low medium risk)
    France Ligue 2 – Draw (Low medium risk)
    Turkey – Favourite (Low medium risk)
    Belgium – Home win (Low medium risk)

    EPL – Draw (medium risk)
    Czech Liga – Draw (medium risk)
    Portugal underdog (Medium risk)

    Germany – underdog (medium high risk)
    Netherlands – Draw (medium high risk)
    Poland – underdog (medium high risk)
    Spain – underdog (medium high risk)

    So from that you can see that I have 6 systems that are on the lower end of risk and 6 systems that are medium risk and medium high. So I feel I have the balance right here. Not too much of one and not too much of the other. The overall hit rate expected for the portfolio is 44%, which is higher than that of the portfolio illustrated by RW here.

    The big problem for me is that the low risk systems are NOT supporting the higher risk ones. Russia is losing. Italy is break even, Turkey is losing, Belgium is showing a small profit. Ligue 2 is in freefall. So, my low risk systems are not doing the job they were intended to do. And, of course, because the higher risk systems in general are not doing so great, the overall portfolio is suffering.

    I honestly don’t know how to combat this. In fact, there is very little I can do in reality. I have performed the analysis and poured hours into that, modelled my own portfolio on 2 highly successful ones run by RW, and diligently place the bets as the system dictates. So, preparation has been spot on. I can’t influence results unfortunately.

    My worst fear before getting started on this was, ”What happens if prolonged losing streaks strike on multiple systems at the same time?” I think I am seeing the answer to that to a degree as to me it seems results for the system are front loaded with losses, as evidenced by the 30% average hit rate for the last 6 weeks, which dipped to 25% over the last 2 weeks. The average hit rate projected for the portfolio as a whole is 44%. So, results so far are way way way below what I expect them to be.

    My thinking now is to stem the tide and try to get through this losing streak. The way to do that I’m unsure about, simply just proceed with level stakes, 1% of initial bankroll? Or recalculate based on the current bankroll?

    Any money management advice would be most welcome here. Thanks 🙂

  24. Right Winger
    24 September 2017 at 8:33 pm #

    Hello Daniel,

    Yes, excluding individual teams is an option we occasionally exercise. Indeed, I mentioned it in my comment above dated 11 August 2017 at 12:55 am.

    Once you have your system, resort the data tab by team name and also chronologically by game number to see if there is one or two teams that constantly let the system down.

    Hide them and then reprogram your formulas to see what differences there are.

    I hope this helps.

  25. Daniel
    23 September 2017 at 10:33 pm #

    Hi Right Winger,

    when creating a portfolio, what do you think about analyzing the systems we chose for every league with the team analysis tab, to eventually exclude some teams that do not look promising despite the overall aspect of the system. Would this be a good fine tuning option, or could it alter the final outcome of the system in a bad way?

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