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HDAFU Tables: £20k in 214 days with the Winter Leagues


Following up the successful 2016 Summer League Campaign, here is our complete report on the 2016-17 Winter League Campaign, based on 18 different top flight leagues.

300x300 Illustration: 2016-17 Winter League Profit Curve2016-17 Winter League Profit Curve



We will try to avoid repeating what was said in the summer league article so that it is all new information for you here.

For the sake of completeness, you should still read and digest both reports for a full idea of our strategies and thought processes.

And you will find the current stock of available HDAFU tables via this link.



2016-17 Campaign Report

Measures of Risk

Before beginning to plan any portfolio or placing bets, you will need to review your analyses and rank the systems you have found according to risk exposure based on the values of the upper inflection point odds.

This will allow you to compile a portfolio with a healthy balance of risk, which is essential to the success of any investment plan.

Here is our rough guide:

  • Low Risk (Probability 45.00% or more; upper inflection point maximum odds of 2.22)
  • Low-medium Risk (Probability 44.99%-35.00%; upper inflection point maximum odds of 2.85)
  • Medium Risk (Probability 34.99%-22.50%; upper inflection point maximum odds of 4.44)
  • Medium-high Risk (Probability 22.99%-16.00%; upper inflection point maximum odds of 6.25)
  • High Risk (Probability 15.99% or less; upper inflection point odds above 6.25)

Discretion is used if a system does not fit these parameters or crosses two or more classifications – In these cases, the harmonic mean odds of all the games in the set is used as the benchmark to guage risk. The Excel formula for a range of odds in cells A1 to A100 would be: =HARMEAN(A1:A100)

Measures of Success

You will also need a definitive framework to be able to judge the final results.

For us, the final results of any league fall into four distinct categories:

  • Systems that achieve a six-season-high (i.e. profits larger than any of the previous five seasons). (Over-Achievers).
  • Those that make a profit over and above the size of the initial stake (£100 in our case), but fall short of six-season-high results. (Achievers).
  • Strategies that break-even or, record a tiny profit or loss up to the size of the initial stake (£100 in our case). (Zero-Sum).
  • Leagues that make a loss over and above the size of the initial stake. (Losers).

You can already see that two of these outcomes are favourable, one is neutral, and only one is detrimental.

2016-17 League-by-League Review

Let’s have a brief look at each league to see how our 22 systems fared. (Alphabetically according to the tab codes in the workbook):

1. AUS1 – Austria Bundesliga – Whole Season System

Risk: Medium-high

Only eight of 28 bets won, but this was enough to see a profit of £882.00. Hit rate and yield were both below the calculated averages and the resultant profit figure was lower than any of the five previous seasons’ figures.

Result: Achiever

2. BEL1 – Belgium Jupiler League – Whole Season System
Up to, but not including Europa League and Championship Group splits

Risk: Medium

Both the estimated hit rate (33 out of 97 bets won) and yield figures were surpassed by wide margins, leading to a six-season-high profit figure of £3,108.00.

Result: Over-Achiever

3. CZE1A – Czech Republic 1. Liga – First Half Season System
Up to the 04/12/2016 winter break

Risk: Medium

Nine out of 22 bets won, and whilst the hit rate and yield both outstripped expectations, the profit figure settled at £1,247.00, the fourth largest in the last six seasons.

Result: Achiever

4. CZE1B – Czech Republic 1. Liga – Second Half Season System
From 18/02/2017 start of the second half of the season

Risk: Low

This one suffered its worst result in the last six seasons, but the resultant loss was minimal at -£310.00.

Result: Loser

5. DEN1A – Denmark Superligaen – First Half Season System

Risk: Medium

This was the only system employed in this league purely because the format of the second half of the 2016-17 season was to change from previous seasons.

Although hit rate and yield were both below estimates, the system still recorded its third highest total for six seasons at £1,238.00.

There were twice as many bets than expected (largely due to the fact that around 40% more games than usual were played in the first half of the season to accommodate the new second half season format).

Result: Achiever

6. ENG1 – England Premier League – Whole Season System

Risk: High

This system suffered the longest losing streak we have ever encountered, almost 14% worse than expected, for a very painful 36 straight losses. (A six-season-low).

However, the situation was mostly recovered by three big winners all carrying odds of over 12.00, for a final loss of just -£32.00.

The last six bets of the season lost, but had only one of these been a winner, this system would have returned a profit. Small margins.

Result: Zero-Sum

7. FRA1 – France Ligue 1 – Whole Season System

Risk: Low-medium

Hit rate and yield were both below par, but the league turned in a steady performance for a profit of £1,634.00, ranked fifth largest in the last six seasons.

Result: Achiever

8. FRA2 – France Ligue 2 – Whole Season System

Risk: Low-medium

The same story as France Ligue 1, but with a profit of £2,801.00, for its third largest profit figure in six seasons.

This one was unusual for a much higher number of bets than expected. (215 vs. 119 estimate – Profit was at £2,523.00 after 119 bets).

Result: Achiever

9. GER1A – Germany Bundesliga 1 – First Half Season System
Up to 21/12/2016 winter break

Risk: Medium-high

Another below par system, but one that still achieved a profit of £1,098.00. (Fourth largest in six seasons).

Result: Achiever

10. GER1B – Germany Bundesliga 1 – Second Half Season System
From 20/01/2017 start of the second half of the season

Risk: Medium

The very rare inclusion of a system with two non-profitable seasons (the oldest two) in the previous five.

It featured one more bet than expected, which won, to total one more winner than expected. Hit rate and yield both exceeded estimates for a profit of £1,294.00. (Fourth largest in six seasons).

Result: Achiever

11. GRE1 – Greece Super League – Whole Season System

Risk: Low-medium

The hit rate here was almost 8% below estimate and resulted in the worst performance for six seasons, and a loss of -£819.00.

Result: Loser



Last Update: 2 August 2017

Categories:1x2 Betting Betting Advice Betting Systems Case Studies



223 Responses to “HDAFU Tables: £20k in 214 days with the Winter Leagues”

  1. AM0751
    22 September 2017 at 2:23 pm #

    Hi rightwinger, quick question here.

    Oddsportal added Asian Odds to their list of “required” bookmakers.

    As far as I can tell, they offer odds from various bookies, including Pinnacle, SboBet and some other asian bookies,

    Do you discard this bookie in your line of thinking as well?

    • Right Winger
      22 September 2017 at 3:10 pm #

      Hello again AM0751,

      I answered this question a few days ago on the User Guide article. (10 September 2017 at 1:13 pm).

      Hopefully, everything there should be self-explanatory.

      All the best.

  2. Gabriel
    17 September 2017 at 9:00 pm #

    Hi.

    Simples question about the Stake Ratchet & Stop-loss Mechanisms: it is suggested that if you are winning, you should increase +5% after 1000 units won. And if you are loosing, you should decrease -5%, but right after 500 units lost. Is that just to have a more conservative approach towards bankroll management?

    Here in soccerwidow, there is another article that indicates a different approach: http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/money-management/how-to-calculate-losing-streaks-optimal-bankroll-sport-betting/

    Thanks!

    • Right Winger
      17 September 2017 at 10:20 pm #

      Hello Gabriel,

      The staking plans we suggest are not set in stone – they are merely examples of the direction you should be thinking in when understanding the importance of having a double-ended (front and back) system.

      The ratchet is there to take advantage of runs of accumulated profits and also acts to increase the value of your bets further, assuming you have value on your side in the first instance.

      But the more important consideration is protecting what you have, which is why the stop-loss is suggested at a lower threshold (i.e. 500 instead of 1,000 units) than the ratchet.

      Therefore, I wouldn’t say this approach is conservative – we described the staking plan in this article as medium-aggressive – we are not acting totally gung-ho when increasing the stakes, nor are we crying over a little spilt milk when bad runs happen.

      The reality is that the stop-loss in this example first activated once a loss of five times the initial 100 unit stake affected results. For the ratchet, the stakes were increased when ten times the initial stake had been won.

      Ultimately, the decision is yours as to how ‘conservative’ or adventurous you wish to be with the staking plan, but whatever combination you choose, bear in mind that once profits are in the bank, the first consideration is to get what is effectively ‘free money’ working as hard as possible for you.

      If you are going to ratchet the stakes, you must also operate a stop-loss at the same time – never trade on one without the other.

      I hope this is of some assistance and thanks for your question.

  3. AM0751
    11 September 2017 at 10:33 pm #

    Jo,

    Check out the conveyor belt comment from rightwinger: http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/20k-in-214-days-winter-league-hdafu-tables/#comment-18844

  4. jo
    11 September 2017 at 8:20 pm #

    Hi AM075111,

    I think Ajax is also the “wrong” team to bet on draw when Ajax is home team. However, once I found it out, I had both teams 3 bets already lost in total. I don’t know again, is it a good idea to quit betting them if I already started. I’m like thinking what if they draw suddenly?
    AZ playing away is almost zero sum game, Vitesse is really worth consideration, but again, both teams have little data set as away teams in my opinion. My strategy is 1 half.
    Maybe Right Winger has some advice?

  5. AM0751
    11 September 2017 at 6:58 pm #

    Hi guys,

    Musing here. In the dutch draw system, you might want to have a look at the individual results for some teams the last 5 seasons.

    Check out Feyenoord playing at home and AZ and Vitesse playing away.

    Cheers.

    • Alex
      14 September 2017 at 3:11 pm #

      I have done this with all my systems, although have only excluded the single most unprofitable team in any given system. Feyenoord at home are an absolute no-go for me, and I’ve also taken Bayern Munich out of my Bundesliga system and Bordeaux away from my Ligue 1.

  6. Olly
    11 September 2017 at 1:30 pm #

    Hi all,

    I arrived a little late to the party and have just completed my third week. The first 2 weeks were tough – 5 points lost in the first week and then 10 points lost in the second. Week 3 has seen me claw back 8 points so feeling more optimistic. For me Ligue 2 has been a disaster thus far. Just 2 wins from 17 bets and 10 points down. Germany and Italy have both given me 6 points profit and are the stand out performers so far.

    This is my first season doing this and the whole concept appears sound and I’m enjoying the ride, despite a difficult start. Onwards and Upwards (I hope!).

  7. Simon
    11 September 2017 at 1:08 pm #

    Jo,

    Thanks for the response.

    You are right with your comments. It is a shame to see profits dwindle away, but for me its just 230 bets approx. into a 1300 projected bets campaign. So plenty of time for results to swing my way.

    I had a look at how the picture would be different if just a couple of draws in the Netherlands system had hit, and the picture is so much better. If an extra win in each of the other underperforming systems had hit, things would be looking very healthy indeed.

    So after 4 weeks of poor results, I’m hoping this week sees a change in the pattern and some good results come in and things really start to take off.

    I noticed through reading the £20k campaign of RW/SW that they got off to a flying start and then from halfway through to the end, it was a lot of treading water. By halfway through their campaign they had made more than £20k.

    So perhaps for us we will have a volatile start that gets better in the middle phase of the campaign. Time will tell.

    But for me, it really is a test of patience and nerve, and trust the stats for the long term!

  8. jo
    11 September 2017 at 1:04 am #

    Hi Simon,

    if you bought winter league campaign you can see that the last 4 weeks were losing weeks. And they can happen at any time, right from the start. Nothing uncommon with your campaign:). In Eredivisie I won 1 bet out of 18 and have similar results to yours. But a high odds win is just a matter of time, just make sure not to miss any bet.
    To me it’s also sad, since sometimes I found myself thinking, these 8 and now 9 weeks were waste of time because profits dropped to almost 0, but there is not much we can do. Just keep going and as Right Winger said, statistics will not line up in a nice pattern.
    In my Summer league campaign I decided to quit betting 1st half of one league since the strategy also performed poorly – 27% actual hit rate vs 59% predicted average and unpleasantly negative balance after 22 bets. I read about it here that you must continue to the end, however, I decided to quit. I kept simulation betting from 23rd bet and I had a winning streak of 6 bets right after that! I didn’t like to see the strategy failing with real money and then I was getting increasingly frustrated with each winning simulation bet! In the end, the system failed anyway, with a little bit smaller loss than I stopped, so, I didn’t care, but I don’t think I will ever quit any strategy before its finish date. It was a good lesson and emotional roller-coaster.

  9. Simon
    10 September 2017 at 10:35 pm #

    Hi All,

    Some feedback on my experience thus far. My portfolio consists of 22 systems; 4 of which are whole season, and 18 1st half/2nd half. This means I have 13 systems currently in play.

    The campaign started well enough and after 4 complete game weeks my profit sat at 23.72 points. Since then it has declined such that it now sits at 3.22 points. There may be another couple of games to bet tomorrow, so that figure may change slightly up or down.

    Looking at the systems:

    Whole Season: Expected/Actual Hit rate (%) Profit/Loss (points)

    Belgium – Home win: 54.97/42.86 -0.46
    France Ligue 2: Draw: 39.42/29.43 -5.51
    Portugal – Underdog 28.85/42.86 +2.68
    Turkey – Favourite: 49.16/35.29 -3.91

    1st Half:

    England – Draw: 41.13/33.33 +0.55
    Czech Republic – Draw: 39.57/30 +1.49
    France Ligue 1 – Favourite: 53.46/48 +1.325
    Germany – Underdog: 30.71/35 +10.59
    Italy – Favourite: 61.67/63.64 +1.66
    Netherlands – Draw: 27.51/5.56 -13.45
    Poland – Underdog: 29.35/25 +10.35
    Russia – Favourite: 61.9/54.55 +0.375
    Spain – Underdog: 27.66/20 -2.47

    Well, as you can see from the above I have some good performers, some break even performers, small and medium losers (France Ligue 2, Turkey)….and then…..one system that is single handedly wrecking the joint….Netherlands draw system, clicking at just over 5.5% and making a monumental dent in my profits. Part of me wants to just drop that system and move on, but….it’s early days and I’m telling myself, “Surely it must recover from such a low hit rate?!”. In other words, I will trust the analysis and hope for a recovery from that system in the coming weeks. It seems like the top 6-8 teams in the Eridivisie have come out on fire to start the season and are winning every game resulting in very few draws in my odds range.

    The expected hit rate for the portfolio as a whole is 44.17%, while the actual hit rate is 34.75%. So 9% under expectations. The last 4 weeks has seen a hit rate of just 30.42%. So really I feel like being in a slump at the moment.

    I have flat bet everything for 1 point to date. But also have run the same results through the ratchet/stop loss comparison, and the difference between the profit and loss figures is very small – so wouldn’t have helped me out much. Although next week I may actually lower stakes in line with the comparison just in case another bad week is ahead!

    So overall, I am disappointed to have seen my profits pretty much set back to zero, but, after such a poor 4 weeks (which have been pretty horrendous), and to still not have lost any of my initial bankroll, I like to feel that an upturn is not far away and things shall improve….optimism…..we shall see.

    Good luck everyone!

  10. timmyp
    28 August 2017 at 2:07 pm #

    hi

    Points H/R % Exp H/R %
    Austria -1.55 21.43% 27.08%
    Belgium -0.56 40.00% 53.05%
    Czech -2.50 20.00% 32.79%
    Denmark -7.64 18.75% 38.95%
    England -6.00 0.00% 17.83%
    France 1 5.36 57.14% 49.01%
    France 2 -10.82 15.00% 37.00%
    Germany 4.85 36.36% 27.02%
    Greece -2.24 40.00% 62.53%
    Italy -3.00 0.00% 51.40%
    Netherlands -4.40 11.11% 28.35%
    Poland 4.00 21.05% 27.32%
    Russia 0.33 55.56% 61.88%
    Scotland 2.71 58.33% 53.10%
    Spain 3.25 40.00% 32.84%
    Switzerland -4.00 33.33% 53.17%
    Turkey 1.29 50.00% 48.48%

    (H/R=Hit rate)

    As shown above, Denmark, England and France 2 are letting me down badly which account for just over 24 points down.Only 7 out of 17 in credit at the moment and I’m 21 points down in total. Most systems are just 1 or 2 results away from being in profit in these early days.

    I know everyone will have different inflection points but I would imagine the systems chosen will be mostly similar. Anyone having similar issues with a some of their choices?

    • Daniel
      28 August 2017 at 7:58 pm #

      Hi timmyp,

      the last two weeks have been quite disappointing in almost everything, with most of the best looking systems having long series of losses. Ligue 2 was very bad with draws (only one draw in two weeks), same as Netherlands, a very promising system with a very bad start that hopefully will recover on the way. Austria, same story, very promising yet disappointing so far. Poland, started with huge profits, now facing a very long negative streak. England bad start as well, with my underdogs struggling greatly, with 1 on 12 bets won. Bad first week in Italy as well, with many favourites losing their games. Slightly recovered on the last week. So far i have been on a loss for this and the last week, losing a chunk of the profits i made previously. On the 18th of August my profits touched the 14,000 euro mark. I am now sitting on little more than 9,000 profit after this very bad betting weeks. Thanks to the stop loss strategy i saved a portion of my profit and i could still endure more weeks of bad “luck” (i hope it will not be the case though). Yesterday 7 out of 10 of my last bets won, showing maybe an end to this catastrophic negative period.
      My confidence in the system i chose never wavered not even for one second, even on the thoughest losing streaks. I did my homeworks before investing the money, i fully understood the concept behind it and i am now fully prepared to enjoy the final outcome tham i am sure will be worth all the emotional rollercoaster. I am sure that if you chose the right system with the right balance, and invested a sufficient amount of money in the strategy, nothing can go wrong. In the long run, the math will take over, so don’t worry.
      By the way, my current hit rate is 31.79% versus a forecasted hit rate of 38.48%. Not amazing, but the sinergy is doing a perfect job on keep the system strong.
      Stay positive and confident, and good luck for your season!

    • ace
      21 September 2017 at 8:09 am #

      Similar experiences here, plus another three weeks where one round broke even and two lost heavily. I’m starting to bother a little bit though I know a lot about variances from playing poker and backgammon, My summer leagues portfolio went pretty well until summer but is also going down slightly for the last four weeks.

      I made some stats with the odds, just comparing expected nominell hit rate (converting odds into probability) with current hit rate. It looks like all bets from 1.6 – 2.2 are running as expected, 2.21 – 2.4 is way below average, 2.61 – 3.00 is avg., 3.01 – 3.60 again ways below avg. 3.61 – 5.00 is avg. again, and all above 5.01 is running badly.

      This fits to the current statistics of several leagues, France 2 probably with a historical low draw rate and some other leagues also with a very bumpy start in the first 5 to 8 rounds.

      In the summer league portfolio I’m suffering from Norway and Brasil which is not unexpected if you carefully read the article from Right Winger regarding last years results.

      • Simon
        21 September 2017 at 12:28 pm #

        For me, after a cracking start, and very healthy profits (23 points) after 4 weeks, I have had 5 straight losing weeks, where almost every betting day has been losing or break even at best. So, to not have had a winning day in 5 weeks is very tough on the patience and morale….and now I’m running at a loss of about 6 points of profit, with 2 games pending this evening.

        The France Ligue 2 draw system is performing terribly right now, with 13 straight losses in the odds range I have chosen. That losing streak is higher than the longest losing streak occurring over the last 5 years.

        In addition to that, the Netherlands draw system has seen 2 draws for me in 17 games.

        Those 2 systems added together account for where most of my losses have come from.

        To date I hadn’t been increasing stakes when winning, or reducing them whilst in the losing streaks. The reason being this is the first time that I have run a portfolio and wanted to keep things simple, plus a flat staking strategy should be fine given the evidence at hand to show the betting strategy is sound and profitable.

        I think now after these 5 losing weeks, it would be stupid not to cut back the stakes a little at least until this method shows me it can win again. So I think I will just use Zero profit/loss as my trigger point and then reduce stakes by the 5% chunks based on what I actually am in deficit this week, then proceed from there.

        This is certainly a test of discipline, patience and resolve…but I will plug away and see what happens!

        • jo
          21 September 2017 at 3:59 pm #

          Hi Simon,

          I checked my Summer campaign and it was not an easy ride either. It was a bumpy ride from the start. Balance was in little profit and loss twice for about 2 weeks each period, 2 months in total. And then the “fifth” period had negative balance for 6 weeks – I was going down for 3 weeks and it took next 3 weeks to return from -1000 to positive balance again. Since then the curve rose pretty steeply with brief struggles and I didn’t have negative balance since the start of June. Before that, my strategy struggled for 3,5 months. The portfolio balance is not the best – most of strategies are medium risk, but there is not much of a season left and it should still make some money.
          My Winter league campaign has a better risk balance, but its obvious, me and some of us will need patience again. My highest balance was 3660 units. I lost 4000 units since. But when I think about frustrating time with winter leagues, I ask myself one question: had my balance been 10000, 20000 before i lost those 4000, would I worry about it? And the answer is no. So I’m not worried there is something wrong with my strategy, because there isn’t, the only thing that is annoying is those 2 months so far were a waste of time regarding profitability, but from the other side, I gained some experience and this is good.

          • Simon
            24 September 2017 at 10:43 pm #

            Jo,

            Just following up on your last reply now that this round of games is almost over. I have to say that right now I’m feeling very disheartened with the way things are going – bearing in mind this is the first time I have run something as detailed and complex as a portfolio style of betting – and not for the want of trying. I have been diligent with bet placement and making sure I take only bets that fit that system, and that qualifying bets are not missed. So at my end I am doing everything in my power to make this a success. Sadly, results are not just going my way.

            At the end of week 4, I had accrued 23.72 points of profit. But from that point on I have suffered 6 straight losing weeks and now am running at a loss of 17.63 points. That’s a swing of just over 40 points – pretty hefty and crushing loss.

            So yes, at this point I am feeling quite soul destroyed, as what started out so promisingly has fast become something to be concerned about in terms of its actual profitability. Will it actually make a profit?!

            As mentioned previously I have 23 systems overall, 13 systems running now; 4 of which are whole season, and 9 half season. 5 of the 13 are making a small profit. 1 is making a very good profit – Poland underdog system. Yet the remaining 6 are losing, and losing heavily.

            Netherlands draw system is running at 2 wins out of 22 (9% hit rate) for a loss of 11 points. Projected hit rate is 27.5%

            Spain underdog system is running at 4 wins from 27 (14.8% hit rate) for a loss of 10.5 points. Projected hit rate is 27.66%

            France Ligue 2 draw system is running at 7 wins from 32 (21.88% hit rate for a loss of 10.5 points. Projected hit rate is 39.42%

            Turkey favourite system is also running at a loss, 7 wins from 21 for 33.33%, and a loss of 6 points. Projected hit rate is 49.16%

            Another couple are running at minor losses.

            So, all in all, I am seeing 3 systems that have raked in profits over the last 5 years that are all failing big time early on, which is decimating the overall picture.

            Initially, my view was to just bet 1% (1 point) which to me is £50, and not adjust it up or down. The reason being that a solid betting strategy should succeed by betting flat stakes and not become a loser if a stop loss or ratchet isn’t employed. I understand that by not using a ratchet I may not make as much profit, but for this being my first time at this, I want to just keep everything as simple as possible.

            The thing is though, the option is there to throw in the towel and cut my losses. The determined part of me wants to plug away at it. It would be awful if I threw in the towel only to go on a winning streak over many weeks. However, I’m confused as to whether I should now cut back on the stakes a bit, or stick at the current level. If I recalculated on 1% of bankroll for each stake I would be betting £40 (rounded down a touch) rather than £50. I did run a simulation (on a sheet I made myself) to see where my stakes would be had I employed a stop loss, and although it makes little difference to the amount lost in total, the stakes should now be around £40.

            The thing is, I think to myself, 6 losing weeks in a row, surely a winning week is around the corner?! Can things get any worse than the measly 25% hit rate for the portfolio over the last 2 weeks?! It could of course be the case that the losing streak continues, and betting smaller stakes would keep me in the game longer. But….and it’s a big but, the longer the losing streak goes on for, the less time each system has to recover, as time is ticking away in terms of the winter break being the cut off for the 1st half systems. And also, if I cut back stakes, then it takes me longer to make back the losses.

            Anyway, sorry for rambling on, but my conviction with staying the course is wavering a little and as such am in a quandary as how to best proceed!

            Any advice on moving forward would be greatly appreciated! Thanks

          • Daniel
            25 September 2017 at 6:35 am #

            Hi Simon,

            i am in a position similar to yours. I had an amazing profit in the first month of the system, after which everything started to collapse, and i went negative. I stopped the system at a 10 unit loss, and i will tell you why. I tried to analyze what was going bad with the actual system. Infact, it was not a matter of “waiting the next good run” anymore because the swings caused by this negative weeks were far too big to be considered healty and normal. So from my point of view, the system have already failed. One thing i know is i cant doubt of the attendibility of the tables. And i can blame the leagues for showing an incredible amount of deviation from the mean. But then i realized one important thing. The balance of my portfolio was off. I was realizing all my losses are coming from medium and higher systems. I realized that i don’t have enough low risk systems to fight the losing streaks that are killing me. I have to depend on this kind of odds to survive and that is just not healty. So i took a step back, unplugged the faulty system and i am currently working on my 2.0 portfolio, implementing all that i have already experienced on my skin. Now i am building my portfoliolio around the best low risk system i can find, and not the other way around. I understand the concept of balancing the portfolio a bit better and now i can really feel the imbalance from the systems. When i will finish my new portfolio (hopefully before the start of the next betting week) i will take it from there. All this to say, sometimes is good to take a step back and try to improve what is causing you problems. If a portfolio is suffering from medium/high odds negative streaks, counter-balancing it with more low risk system can save your profits.
            Good luck and stay positive!

          • Rado
            25 September 2017 at 10:17 am #

            Sad to report same here… I had an incredibly, incredibly disappointing week, with absolutely all of my 12 systems accumulating heavy losses. All in all, I lost more than 20 stakes (points) last week! All my winnings from the previous two successful weeks are out of the window. This is very dishearting and perhaps someone can shed some light on why this can be happening. I have almost 10% lower overall hitrate than the projected one (29 vs 38 percent) and cannot endure another destructive week like the last one. How is it even possible that all of the systems enter prolonged losing streaks at the same time???

  11. AM0751
    27 August 2017 at 8:41 am #

    Hi right winger,
    ;-
    I am indeed employing a stop loss. And I guess I am learning as I go along, hence the following:

    I have been reading all articles and your comments to find if my question was already asked, but it does not seem so.

    My question is as follows: you have mentioned several times that there are some problematic bookies, namely Marathonbet, 1XBET and Tempobet.

    You mentioned that as they are high turnover, low margin bookies, and that their odds tend to change fast. But this goes for more bookies, like Island Casino or 5Dimes (or Pinnacle of course!), yet you never mentioned you excluded these from your analysis when collecting highest odds.

    Can you explain to me what the difference is?

    Reason I am asking is in your winter campaign spreadsheet, I see sometimes you *do* include Marathonbet pricing (with both winning and losing games, so this is not some thinly veiled accusation, just an observation).

    Is it purely a timestamp issue that makes you adjust for the highest odds in your HDAFU tables?

    • Right Winger
      27 August 2017 at 1:39 pm #

      Hi AM0751,

      Thanks for your comment.

      Yes, Oddsportal’s API’s are unreliable and/or slow in updating where Marathonbet, 1xbet and Tempobet are concerned.

      Tempobet, for example, will show best odds on many occasions, usually on the home team, but these odds will sometimes be days old; occasionally they are as little as 45 minutes old, but never close to being ante post market closing odds.

      Consequently, being so far above the rest of the market, these odds stick out like a sore thumb and are an unreliable benchmark. If they were true, everyone would be betting on them (especially traders and arbitrageurs), and they would have a hard job balancing their accounts. I’ve checked Tempobet’s sites (they have several in different languages) against Oddsportal’s odds prior to kick-off, and there are sometimes marked differences between the different Tempobet sites at the same moment in time.

      So, in answer to your question, it is most definitely a time stamp issue, which is why you will sometimes find Marathonbet’s odds included in the analyses. Their odds are sometimes best in the market (just slightly ahead of their rivals and obtainable), within a minute or so of kick-off.

      As I’ve mentioned before, use the majority opinion (i.e. what the rest of the bookmakers indicate), rather than the guidance of one or two outliers, in order to form your bet placement decisions.

      I agree that the process may seem a little awkward at first, and it would certainly not be an issue if we could select/deselect bookmakers from Oddsportal’s compulsory list, but with time you will get used to it.

    • simon
      27 August 2017 at 1:41 pm #

      AM0751,

      I may be able to answer your question. It was my understanding at the time, and have since seen this consistently myself at odds portal, that with Marathonbet, they are in nearly all cases, especially with underdog bets, offering considerably higher odds than the rest of the market. On that note I remember RW saying for that reason, Marathonbet odds had been discarded/downgraded. That would then give a set of highest odds that were reflective of the market.

      So this in turn has a bearing on the actual bet placement itself. For example if you have inflection points of 3.5 and 4.5 and every single book maker is within that range apart from marathon bet, then it is a valid selection, since the market agrees. So place the bet. Of course, for the purposes of taking the best odds, the bet can be placed with marathon bet. That would explain why you see marathon bet prices in the winter campaign sheet.

      On the other hand, again with inflection point of 3.5 and 4.5, if all the bookmakers are say at 3.3 or lower and marathon bet is at 3.6, this is not a valid selection and should not be bet on.

      Thats how I understand it with marathon bet specifically – its an issue with there odds being higher in lots of cases than the general market and so not a reflection of that market. I didn’t think it to be due to an issue with time stamps for marathon bet.

      I have seen many instances, however, where books on odds portal have odds that seem very high in relation to the market average. And when I check these odds for accuracy at the bookmaker website itself, I find the odds do not exist anymore. I find this to be the case a LOT with Tempobet. Other books I have seen this happen with are Betolimp. There are other cases with other bookmakers but less frequently so.

      What I do in these cases, where the odds seem so out to step from the rest of the market is check the website itself to see what the current odds are. I would suspect, and RW could confirm this, those odds that are out of step with reality, such as Templet odds, are the ones corrected by looking at timestamps. With Marathon bet, I’m sure thats not a timestamp issue.

      Hope thats helpful. And RW will correct me if I’m wrong!

    • Daniel
      28 August 2017 at 8:12 pm #

      Hi AM0751,

      i will share with you my experiences with Oddsportal and the APIs so far.

      I have encountered many times unreliable odds in my selections (old timestamps). Usually what i do is open the website and check the real odds for that particular event. If i cannot do so (because of geographic or IP restrictions) i generally tend to discard them from the analysis and move to the second best, as long as they are reliable. I don’t discard any bookmaker solely based on the name. For example, i never ignore Marathonbet odds if the timestamp is recent and the odds are accurate. Honestly it is a very simple and straight forward process for me. If the top odds fit in, and are authentic, i bet. If not, i don’t. Regardless of which bookmakers are they from (from the list of bookmakers shared by Right Winger), if the timestamp is recent and the odd is accurate i use that value. I also never place a bet more than 15 minutes before kick off, except if i notice that a particular odd is falling constantly but still in the range by far.

      Hope this helps!

  12. Timmyp
    25 August 2017 at 9:21 pm #

    @simon

    I am doing the same as you as well as other leagues too. I was up 3 points in week 1 and it has been downhill since. Up until tonight I was about 7 points down on a rollercoaster and tonight has been terrible with another 7 points lost. I started with a 30 point bank and could go below 50% with a bad day tomorrow.
    The graphs look good with the inflection points chosen and I am wondering if anyone is actually up so far in what seems a horrible start to the winter leagues.

    • Right Winger
      25 August 2017 at 10:19 pm #

      AM0751 & Timmyp,

      I hope you are both employing a stop loss mechanism suitable to your levels of stakes as per the explanation on page 4 of this article?

      Remember, you must protect what you have when the troughs arrive.

      Just a thought.

    • Daniel
      26 August 2017 at 2:34 pm #

      Hello Timmy,

      just want to share with you my results so far.

      I started with a 11000 euro bank and 300 stakes. I am 9685 euro in profit at the end of week 6 with week 7 in progress as we speak.

      Week 1: 9 bets, 15 euro profit
      Week 2: 21 bets, 2865 euro profit
      Week 3: 23 bets, 3579 euro profit
      Week 4: 36 bets, 3571 euro profit
      Week 5: 50 bets, 2491 euro profit
      Week 6: 68 bets, -2836 euro loss

      Week 6 was a very bad and unlucky week with many games lost in the final minutes, but that is part of the game so no complains so far for a system that is giving me huge profits in little more than a month.

      I am also using the stop-loss strategy explained by Right Winger and my current bet size is 330 euro for Week 7.

      Good luck with your system!

      And a big thanks to Right Winger and Soccerwidow for the invaluable knowledge they have taught me through this website.

  13. AM0751
    21 August 2017 at 4:33 pm #

    Hi right winger, Michael and Simon,

    Thank you for your feedback, your words acknowledge that I am indeed not crazy, I am just experiencing a dip. I iwll keep plugging away.

    Right winger, just adding, because I think you missed point 3 in my previous post, did I handle this case correctly>

    Cheers!

  14. Simon
    21 August 2017 at 1:47 pm #

    AM0571

    I am happy to share my feedback and experience of how the last 6 Gameweeks have gone for me.

    To simplify things, whatever I bet per game I will call 1 unit. My unit amount is £50. So after 4 Gameweeks, with 8 systems in flow at that point, things were going great, with 23.72 units of profit/£1186 in the bank. Weeks 5 and 6 have been awful for me, losing approx. 6 units in week 5 and approx. 12 units in week 5. I’m now sitting back at 6 units of profit/£300.

    The systems I started out with initially, Poland Underdog, Russian Favourite, French Ligue 1 favourite, French Ligue 2 Draw, Czech republic Draw, Portugal Underdog, all started out winning. Last weekend Netherlands Draw joined the fray and has been poor performing on both weeks 5 and 6. Turkey Favourite started poorly on week 5. Both Spain and Germany started out poorly this weekend, as did Italy Favourite. Some other systems have suffered small losses or breaking even.

    So, the latest systems joining the action all have started poorly and thus combined to bring down the profits gained by the other systems.

    It certainly was a humbling experience to see such a big profit reduction so quickly. So I can relate to your experience to a degree. On the plus side I haven’t lost money yet, but can confirm that the last 2 weeks have not been great for me personally. However, I’m looking at things from the point of view that these slow starting systems can recover, and that will lead to a spike in the profits.

    I never thought that all the systems would have performed brilliantly right off the bat – that would be unrealistice. I was hoping that after getting up to just under 24 units of profit there would be a period of consolidation where I was breaking even, but I had a good period immediately followed by a bad one. None of us know how the results will line up or what the future holds. So for me it is a case of trusting the data, trusting my analysis of it, and hoping in the long run, with sound money management and patience profits will build up again!

    • Right Winger
      21 August 2017 at 3:58 pm #

      In response to Michael, AM0751 and Simon (all 21/08/2017 above),

      Firstly, because we (Soccerwidow.com) are running Summer and Winter League portfolios concurrently, our overall results have not been hugely curtailed by the start to the 2017-18 Winter League seasons, although I agree with some of the detrimental experiences you have highlighted above.

      I think the ‘new starters’ dilemma can be summed up with an analogy. The football betting calendar year is like a fast-moving conveyor belt. Once you are on it, you are swept away until you decide you’ve had enough. Getting off is easy enough – you just stop betting.

      But like anything continuously in motion, if you’ve never been on the ride before (i.e. portfolio betting), it is likely that you will stumble getting on it at first. You have to get on somewhere, but there are no hints with statistics to tell you when the best moment arrives.

      Calculating winning streaks and losing streaks is all good and well, but there is no way of knowing when they will arrive. If you get on the conveyor in the middle of a losing streak, then I’m afraid it is hard lines, but if your portfolio is large enough and has a balanced risk profile, you will recover over time and begin to pick up.

      The unpredictable starts to some seasons is a subject already covered in the blog. You may wish to refresh your memories for a little reassurance that things will settle down and follow statistical patterns eventually. Read also the Goal Distribution article, if you haven’t already done so.

      The key to portfolio betting is to keep the rhythm going – try and bet all year round so that there is no time gap in your portfolio. The numbers will eventually support themselves as you begin to mix Summer and Winter Leagues in the same round of matches.

      A larger portfolio will also provide you with better financial control – Employ the ratchet and stop loss mechanisms to the portfolio as a whole.

      Alternatively, get on the conveyor belt with a set target in mind. Stop betting when you have achieved it. Start afresh when you are ready. Treat every new target as a separate ‘campaign’, but expect the possibility of stumbling at the beginning of each. Building anything up from nothing is never plain sailing at the start. (I can’t begin to tell you how hard it was for me to build-up an insurance brokerage from scratch, single-handedly in the 1990’s).

      And don’t worry about a rocky ride to the start of a season in some leagues. The statistics will even themselves out. As per the Winter League Campaign article above, the final result should resemble a Poisson distribution curve – the two extremities of the curve will contain a few systems which fail (at the negative end), some that will surpass expectations (at the positive end), whilst the rest (the majority) will be in the big bulge in the middle.

      Both patience and nerve are virtues in gambling. If you have ‘value’ on your side (i.e. betting above the zero odds every time), then you will make money in the long run. It’s obvious.

  15. AM0751
    21 August 2017 at 10:47 am #

    Hi right winger,

    I still have a couple of questions, I hope you can shed some light on them.

    1. I started some first half seasons when they were already in play. I left some profit on the table (I calculated back), but I also calculated the projected profit and there was enough still on the table to make it worth my while. So I went ahead and started placing bets on these leagues. Was this a mistake?

    2. Reason I am asking this is because well, I am executing operation nosedive over the last two weekends. Don’ get me wrong,this is all 100% my own choice, so I am not having a dig, but maybe you could acknowledge the last two weekends were not the greatest? I have reason to believe I am not far off the systems that you yourself use. Any perceptive person could reach this conclusion, and I am sure you know what I mean by that comment. It would help me to have my soul a bit less destroyed maybe. And if you have a totally different experience, well, that would mean I am doing something completely wrong.

    3. Now to something more concrete. I have read and appplied your comments about the two russian bookies. However, I had a situation yesterday where the Roma away game was between my two inflection points with every bookie except one, Tempobet.
    I checked their website and indeed Odds Portal was showing the right info. So I didn;t play this game due to the fact that one bookie offered this game outside my inflecton points. Was I right in doing that?

    I hope you can take the time to address this post, I would very much appreciate it!

    • Right Winger
      21 August 2017 at 5:34 pm #

      Hello again AM0751,

      I think I’ve gone some way to answering your questions in mine below (21/08/2017 3.58pm) and above (21/08/2017 5.13pm and 5.21pm).

      Tempobet is a funny one. Difficult to get an account with and sometimes offering odds well above anyone else. Sometimes, you find the odds shown on Oddsportal are available, and sometimes they most definitely are not. The API connection Oddsportal has with Tempobet is definitely unreliable.

      We do not have an account with Tempobet and tend to discard their results from our thinking. From what you have said, I think the answer from our perspective would have been to ignore Tempobet and place the bet.

      As I have said before in reply to other contributors, if in doubt, go with the majority viewpoint. Outlier prices are usually offered to gain market share and don’t necessarily reflect what is going on with the market in general.

  16. Michael
    21 August 2017 at 8:36 am #

    Are Belgian draws killing anyone else?

    • Corner
      22 August 2017 at 11:39 pm #

      The loosing streak is painful indeed. Only 15,6 % draws so far. 24,6% was the average in the last five years.

  17. Alex
    18 August 2017 at 12:39 pm #

    Hi again Right Winger,

    Just a question regarding the timing of bets. Obviously it’s important to wait until the hour before kickoff for those bets that are close to the inflection points, but how important is it to keep this timing for the bets that are obviously going to land between our points. For example, if I have inflection points of 1.6-2.5 and there’s a bet tomorrow priced at 2.1 is it okay to place your bets early on that?

    Thanks!

    • Right Winger
      21 August 2017 at 5:21 pm #

      Hi Alex,

      We regularly do place some bets well in advance if we have an inkling that the price is going to drop the nearer to kick-off it gets (usually favourites or home wins).

      However, if the price drifts beyond the lower inflection point, we will lay it back for an arbitrage profit.

      As I’ve said to others before in these comments sections, start looking at odds movements in Oddsportal from the opening of the market right up until the close (check the time stamps). You will then hopefully get a good idea how the market operates (leagues differ according to their popularity/liquidity), and identify the different strategies employed by the bookmakers to obtain their share of the market on an event.

      Once you have that knowledge, you can anticipate with a deal of accuracy how the market is going to move, and make your bet decision based on the best/most profitable times to place bets.

      Remember, the HDAFU tables provide a benchmark for the close of the ante post market. You only need this one reliable benchmark during ante post to make the most profitable bet placement decisions if you can afford to put the work/time in observing and teaching yourself about the market dynamics.

      I hope this helps.

  18. Corner
    17 August 2017 at 9:10 pm #

    Hello Right Winger,

    i did a lot of research and paper trading to get familiar with the HDAFU Tables.
    My biggest problem at the moment is to identify false odds at oddsportal.
    If you have a big gap between the upper and lower inflection point there is no problem.

    But if there is a small gap, two things can happen.

    You bet on the wrong games or you miss the right ones.

    I give you two examples:

    Russian Premier League:
    09.08.2017 FK Rostov – Dynamo Moscow 1:0

    Highest odds for home win: 2.2 (Tipico). The payout is 104 %. The timestamp shows (opening odds)

    If the upper inflection point would be at 2.16 you don´t bet on the game when you trust oddsportal. The majority of all bookmakers are under 2.0 for the home win.
    My interpretation: False odds.The right decision is to bet on the game. Pinnacle is at 1.98. It was a winner.

    Czech 1.Liga:
    13. August 2017 16:00 Teplice – Jablonec 1:1
    Highest odds for a draw: 3.75 (bet365). The payout is 100,8%. The majority of all bookmakers are under 3.6 for a draw.

    If your lower inflection point is above 3.65 you would bet on this game. I use a multibookmaker platform like vodds. The highest odds for a draw at kickoff was 3.59.

    My interpretation: False odds. I guess i was wrong here. The Payout is 100,8 %, looks Ok and the time stamp from bet365 shows the last change 15 minutes before the kick off. The price was not available on my multibookmaker platform with Pinnacle and Betfair. I thought this game has false odds. I missed a game which was a winner ?

    You wrote an article “How to find false odds at oddsportal”. The examples are very obivious. A Game with a payout above 140 % payout.
    I bought the the english premier league HDAFU Table. I found no payout above 101 %.
    When i check the odds at oddsportal i find games with higher payout for the english premier league. It must take you hours to correct all the odds above 101 % payout.

    My questions:
    Is a game with more than 101 % payout a game with potential false odds?
    Can Betfair without commission be an indicator to check if the highest oddsportal odds are Ok ?
    Can you give me some hints what you do to check if the game has false odds when it´s not so obvious?

    Thanks for your tremendous work

    • Right Winger
      21 August 2017 at 5:13 pm #

      Hi Corner,

      Wow! Just a few questions there – you’ll have to forgive me if my answers are short and sweet…

      1) Yes, it does take hours to manually correct odds in connection with our products. We have to do it simply because there is no reliable benchmark source of odds available (free or paid) anywhere in the Net.

      2) You will find it difficult to find arbitrage on any 1X2 set of odds (i.e. payout above 100%) in the final few minutes before kick-off, but don’t confuse positive payout (underround) with overround – they are exact opposites.

      3) The vast majority of games in the final moments before kick-off will therefore have a payout less than 100%. You should check anything with 100% payout or over before committing to the bet. This should be quite obvious on Oddsportal by looking at the time stamps of the offending prices.

      4) Don’t forget that the vast majority of your bets will probably be safely inside the inflection points. It is probably better not to worry about boderline decisions as they will only cost you time.

      If you are still unsure then make a rule for yourself. If it’s a favourite or a home win and the price is questionable (i.e. is it in or outside the lower inflection point), make a decision to treat all such imposters in the same fashion. In other words, include them all, or exclude them all. It won’t make much difference to your bottom line. It’s only when you include some and exclude others that you create an imbalance not only in the possible results, but also in your own mind as to whether you are doing the right thing or not.

      If it’s a draw, an underdog or an away win, I would probably err on the side of caution and decide not to include them if they are on the upper inflection point.

      5) Regarding small gaps between the inflection points, I’m not sure how small the gaps are you are referring to, but have a look at the Summer and Winter League campaign workbooks to see the gaps we had in each system we chose.

      6) Don’t forget that the results of both campaigns, although pretty good, were not always based on best price in the market at the time of bet placement. In fact, the majority of bets were placed at prices below the peak price, simply because we didn’t have access to the best price.

      If you are in further doubt, use the best price available to you as the benchmark. Again, in the majority of cases, it will fall comfortably between your two inflection points. Just make a rule and stick to it for the borderline cases. Concentrate on the big picture first, and attend to the details if you have the time.

      7) In your Oddsportal account settings, you can set a commission rate for Betfair and also choose whether or not to show Betfair odds net of the commission payable. This may provide you with the indicator you are looking for. Otherwise, it’s a case of checking the bookmaker odds for accuracy.

      I hope this answers your questions and thanks for your contribution.

  19. AM0751
    12 August 2017 at 9:35 am #

    Hi Right Winger,

    I have been reading the comments earlier in these threads about applying ratchet/stop-loss systems to individual systems in the portfolio.

    Of course, the same numbers can’t be applied as for the whole portfolio when it comes to trigger points, as the numbers will be effectively split in

    Is there any way to determine an individual ratchet/stop-loss system for each system in the portfolio, or could you give me some suggestions?

    Maybe a relation with LLS, or average expected bets per round?

    I am very keen to hear your thoughts on this.

    • Right Winger
      13 August 2017 at 10:19 am #

      Hello AM0751,

      Of course it is possible to run each system separately within the portfolio, but our leaning now is probably towards ratchet and stop-loss triggers applied to the portfolio as a whole. (Contrary to my thoughts in the comment above to Jo on 27th June, 7.45pm).

      The synergy of the whole is what makes things happen, and this is what you should trade on to maximise profits.

      It starts to become quite complicated managing each system according to its own merits; it will certainly cost more time calculating what the situation is after each round of matches, and also when having to think about and place bets with different stakes.

      If the money is already in the bank, then increase stakes across the board. Micro-managing interferes with the synergy of the portfolio approach.

      Looking more in-depth at the 2016 and 2016-17 campaigns, expanding upon the calculations, and thinking the thing through, we have decided that keeping it simple is the better approach. Manage the portfolio as a whole. The detrimental effect of losing rounds (stop loss incidence) will be tempered more by the benefits of greater leaps forward if ratchet triggers are based on total profits.

      I hope this is clear and thanks for your valuable contribution.

  20. Alex
    10 August 2017 at 5:11 pm #

    Hi,

    Firstly I just want to say congratulations and thank you on publishing such great work! I’ve just started looking through my chosen leagues and have a few questions:

    1. First things first – I don’t have the funds to purchase a significant amount of your workbooks just yet but from the few I have purchased I’ve chosen systems with either 4/5 or 5/5 profitable seasons. Until I can afford more how many systems would you say is the minimum to create a balanced portfolio?

    2. In one of my systems (I won’t name which one) I’ve done some analysis and found a system that almost seems too good to be true. It’s a Back the Draw system in the first half of the season, and according to the Inflection Points graph the best system looks to be backing a draw in literally every single game in that league. Now, there is a little statistical noise in the middle but the profit at either end of that breakeven stretch looks to outweigh that small negative. Is backing the same result in every single match actually a viable strategy or should I try to hone it down (reducing the amount of bets but almost certainly reducing profitability?)

    • Right Winger
      10 August 2017 at 6:44 pm #

      Hello Alex,

      Yes, we have certainly used systems in the past that have employed all matches in a league during a season, but I would suggest analysing both halves of your profitable inflection points curve separately to find out if one is substantially better than the other.

      Look separately at the five seasons’ results for both profitable portions of your curve. You may find one section is supported by an anomalous season, or is perhaps not in profit in a couple of seasons? Maybe both portions combine to give a good overall result, but with more depth to your analysis, you may see that one is actually supporting the other.

      If there still isn’t much difference between the two after filtering our the statistical noice in-between, then perhaps it is worth going with all games.

      But, we are looking for the synergy of the best individual systems we can find in each league rather than having competing systems in the same league. Taking all games will certainly cost you more time (to place the bets) and will ultimately reduce yield (as the final profit on the portfolio will be spread thinner over more bets). Pay attention to the estimated yield of your entire portfolio when making this decision. How is this figure affected by taking one of the profitable systems and not the other?

      Your losing streaks may also be stretched a little in the wrong direction with more bets.

      My advice would be to take the best portion of the curve only. It’s like saying in general that we like eating chicken, but instead of trying to eat a whole one and giving yourself indigestion, stick to the bit you enjoy most (the breast in my case, the legs in Soccerwidow’s case!).

      Our usual advice applies to the size of portfolio: you’ll need one large enough to project an estimated minimum of 500 bets during the duration of your campaign. (The law of large numbers). But don’t use this as an excuse to extend a system to a whole league; you’ll get better results across the board by playing only the best portion of the curve in each league you run.

      I hope this helps your thinking and thanks for the good questions!

      • Alex
        10 August 2017 at 10:46 pm #

        Thank you for the detailed answer. I’ll definitely delve into that further tonight and come up with hopefully the best system.

        Just one more quick question – Do you use the Backing By Team section to further refine your system? Sticking with my “Backing the Draw” example from above I can see that if I bet on a draw in every game over the last five seasons I’d be massively in profit, but delving into the team section I can see that certain teams aren’t profitable.

        For example, let’s call them “Team A”. If we had backed a draw in every match in which Team A were the visiting side we would have lost over £1,000, with only one of the five seasons resulting in a profit. Do you further increase the ROI of your systems by excluding these proven unprofitable teams from the system?

        • Alex
          11 August 2017 at 12:53 am #

          And one more question (sorry)

          I remember you mentioning about clearly unprofitable systems representing good lay opportunities which obviously makes sense. My question is how you construct these Lay systems?

          For example if you’re laying an outcome between inflection points of 1.45 and 1.68 do you alter your lay stake so that your liability is always constant. So a higher stake would be used on 1.45 odds than 1.68 to keep the liability constant?

          • Right Winger
            11 August 2017 at 1:10 am #

            Alex,

            Firstly, we don’t like ante post lay systems purely because with exchanges, the lay odds have to be above the back odds, and of course exchanges also charge commission.

            Both of these elements combine to remove a lot of the value or ‘edge’ and make lay systems rather painful exercises.

            You must also realise that laying is the bookmaker model when they offer back bets for sale.

            When you understand that overrounds (the bookmakers’ profit margins) are relatively small (perhaps just 2% with the sharpest books such as Pinnacle), you will then realise that the profits to be had from ante post laying also have to be relative to these small percentages.

            In our experience, ante post lay betting is only beneficial from an arbitrage perspective where profits are again very small, or to take advantage of bigger odds movements in-play.

            We have tried many ante post lay systems over the years and it is soul-destroying when you hit a losing patch. It then takes many more winning bets to recover and get back into a stride. It’s usually a case of three steps forward and then two and-three-quarters back, sometimes more.

            Matching the way the backing stakes are placed by having fixed-win/liability lay bets is a guarantee of a roller-coaster ride. It is also a real pain trying to apply ratchets and stop loss mechanisms to lay systems.

            However, if this still hasn’t dissuaded you from looking at lay opportunities then just read the HDAFU tables’ results in reverse. Follow the instructions in the Notes Tab to set Odds Toggle and Commission Rate figures, and then look at the largest negative figures (treating them in your mind as positive ones). Reverse in your mind the winning and losing streaks too.

            You may be able to find something too good to miss out on, but personally speaking, we stick to backing as it’s a far more consistent profit curve. Lay curves are more jagged with more pronounced statistical noise.

            We’ve long battled with ourselves as to whether to show lay betting in the tables (we once did include them), but we have finally decided that if we’re not comfortable with it ourselves, then we won’t actively promote it to our customers.

            I hope this explains.

        • Right Winger
          11 August 2017 at 12:55 am #

          Hello again Alex,

          The ‘Backing by Team’ tab is an old favourite of many people and we keep it in the tables for those who want to investigate portfolios of teams, rather than betting solely on odds.

          But for the purposes of this article, yes, we do sometimes filter the data tab by teams (home and away) to see if there are any ‘usual suspects’ that constantly let the system down.

          This is more likely in leagues that are dominated by just one or two teams, season in, season out.

          Just filter out the teams and hide the relevant rows, before re-sorting back into chronological order and amending the formulas (as per the User Guide).

          Another good point! You’re on the right track.

          • Alex
            11 August 2017 at 1:46 am #

            Hi Right Winger,

            Thanks for that, I’ll take your laying advice on board and stick to back bets for now at least!

            Good idea on the filtering out teams on the Data tab, I was just thinking of using the Team tab and excluding those teams out of my bets but your way means I can directly compare the Yield and ROI for systems with and without said teams. Seems I’ve got a lot of research to do tomorrow!

            By the way, regarding my earlier post about the system betting on every match – You were right. I filtered and compared the two sides of the statistical noise and found one system that smashes the other out of the water! A yield of almost 50% (compared to 30% for the system before the noise and 25% for backing a draw in all games.) Not to mention the fact that 5/5 seasons are profitable. Overall, the system I have chosen to go for yields an average £3000 profit per season in just 61 average bets, compared to £3900 profit on average over 156 bets if betting on every game!

  21. Dennis
    10 August 2017 at 4:00 pm #

    You had a 2000 € bankroll at a bet size of 100 playing 18 leagues/systems? So 5% stake per bet? Isn’t that to optimistic?

    • Right Winger
      10 August 2017 at 5:07 pm #

      Hello Dennis,

      I think the 2,000 unit starting bank figure you are referring to is from the staking plan simulation, which is part of the Winter League Campaign spreadsheet.

      Please note that this part of the spreadsheet is only a simulation, and the 2,000 unit starting bank shown there is an arbitrary figure just to demonstrate the ratchet and stop-loss trigger points, and to introduce people to the subject of managing effective staking plans.

      But, in any case, with our experience of running these systems and seeing losing streaks tempered by the ‘portfolio effect’, 5% is not an unreasonable sum, especially if you are prepared to reduce it or manage it with a stop loss mechanism if things do not go well initially.

      If you do implement a stop loss strategy, then you must also use a ratchet when things are going well.

      Our actual bank balance was in fact different to the simulation (it was whatever we had in our accounts at the time), but we would still use a virtual figure, in this case 2,000 units, on which to base our triggers. In other words, a benchmark for performance going forwards.

      I hope this makes sense and thanks for your question.

  22. Simon
    5 August 2017 at 11:38 pm #

    TimmyP,

    Just wanted to reply to you and give you a snipped of the experience I had had with the portfolio style of betting. Perhaps like yourself, this is my first time running this kind of thing, but so far results have been good for.

    The first thing I would say is that I modelled my portfolio closely on the one that the article/workbook on this website described – as i wanted to get the balance right.

    Of all the systems that I had selected, betting began with just 2 systems to begin with, Russian premier league (favorite) and Poland Ekstraklasa (Underdog). Then in the last 2 weeks Belgium, France ligue 1/2, Czech Liga and Portugal Primeira liga have joined in. There will be more systems coming live for me in the next 2 weeks also.

    Out of respect for RW and soccer widow I won’t say exactly what the systems are so as to not give away content of the tables, but results for me have been positive. I’m only betting £50 per game since this my first time doing this.

    In total since betting commenced I have placed 44 bets; 21 wins and 23 losses, 47.73% hit rate and £839.60 in profit. Yield is 38.16%

    So for me, I feel I have done better than expected and things may slow down for me sometime soon.

    For you, TimmyP, I hope things pick up as more leagues come in to play. I don’t suppose any of our portfolios will be the same, so it’s hard to directly compare results at any stage.

    Anyway the point of this reply is to say that it seems possible to emulate RW and Soccerwidow’s very successful campaigns. Keep faith in your method and all the very best to you for the rest of the football season.

    • Right Winger
      5 August 2017 at 11:49 pm #

      Simon,

      That’s very kind of you to make the effort and spend your time encouraging Tim and others like him, no doubt.

      Glad to hear things are going well for you. Don’t forget to put the brakes on with a stop loss when you hit the doldrums, and accelerate with a ratchet when you have a following wind!

      All the best for now.

  23. Right Winger
    5 August 2017 at 10:54 pm #

    Hello again Tim,

    Yes, sometimes the start of a campaign is a little slow going until all the leagues have commenced and the number of bets per week rises, especially if you are starting off your first campaign and don’t yet have the optimum level of synergy to benefit from.

    But I would say that it is way too early to make a judgment on the Winter Leagues yet bearing in mind that most of them haven’t started. If you are worried at this stage of the season, I would suggest cutting back your stakes with a stop loss mechanism (as explained in this article) until things pick up again.

    Or stopping altogether until all the big leagues join in next week. Paper test in the meantime.

    I can’t comment on your personal situation as I am sure no two portfolios are alike, but from our perspective, we are running a large portfolio containing concurrent Summer and Winter Leagues, which is doing fine.

    As I have said so many times before, portfolio betting is a numbers game – the larger your number of value bets in a round, the better the performance will be.

    Tim, I hope this gives you the reassurance you were looking for. Keep reading all of the HDAFU Tables articles until you are totally sure you are doing the right thing. Keep an eye especially on the comments sections as these contain a lot of detail and tips not necessarily included in the articles.

    Fingers crossed for you.

  24. timmyp
    5 August 2017 at 5:07 pm #

    hi RW

    how are you doing at the start of this winter league? I’m struggling with results so far, and was just wondering if its the same for you.

  25. Right Winger
    5 August 2017 at 2:36 am #

    Hello again Tony,

    Well, we had no problem flying under the radar at stakes of this level, and none of the bets were placed with Betfair.

    We are fans of multi-bookmaker platforms such as Vodds, which give access to Pinnacle, SBOBET, and other sharp Asian bookies, where turnover is appreciated and accounts are never closed or limited. We also utilise individual accounts with 5Dimes, BetVictor, Bet365, Smarkets, and a few others.

    The hit rate is usually around 35% on the mixed portfolios we employ, so the bookmakers do see the benefit from us of a lot of losing bets during the course of the year. And not all of the profits get booked against any single account – the final tally is spread around nicely, with the minimum of withdrawals (if any) made from the bookmaker accounts.

    The exchange and the multi-platforms are where the withdrawals happen.

    No, we didn’t get involved in the match you mention, but then again, the only second division league we cover is France 2. Too much statistical noise in the lower divisions with higher turnovers of teams.

    Hope all is well with you and thanks once again for your contribution.

    • Simon
      8 August 2017 at 12:36 pm #

      RW,

      In preparation for the winter leagues campaign I set myself up with accounts at places like smarkets and vodds, in addition to other existing accounts I had already.

      One thing I certainly don’t want to happen is to be restricted at the traditional bookmakers if winnings build up. As if that happens, it puts a spanner in the works so to speak.

      So I’m very interested to learn a little about the movement of money from a traditional book to the exchange for withdrawal purposes.

      In your opinion what would be the most effective/efficient way to move the money?

      I get the principle that you just want to look like a casual punter to the bookmaker and thus fly under the radar. I’m not experienced at all with “matched betting” and would hate to lose hard earned winnings by making a mistake!

      Are there any simple methods you use to get your winnings from bookmaker to exchange that you could share please?

      Thanks in advance.

      • Right Winger
        8 August 2017 at 2:50 pm #

        Hi Simon,

        Firstly, as you have Smarkets and Vodds, I would imagine the majority of your bets are likely to be with these accounts, with less activity on your other accounts.

        Sadly, the only effective and realistic way of transferring money from bookmaker to exchange/multi-platform is via matched betting. It’s a fairly easy procedure once you get your head around it, but like everything worthwhile having, it is a skill that needs to be learned.

        I appreciate your apprehension, but can only say that you should never be afraid of learning new skills. There are plenty of sites on the Net which teach this skill. As ever, paper test it until you thoroughly understand the concept.

        With matched betting, the trick is to understand how the market moves and to be able to anticipate odds movements. The aim is to make enough of an arbitrage to cover the exchange commission rate, so that no money is lost in the transaction. If using a multi-bookmaker platform such as Vodds, this is not an issue.

        Of course, if you’re not fussy, or don’t have the time for precision, you can always decide to surrender a little profit, whichever side of the bet comes in.

        Look for bets that have uneven chances – e.g. 40% (2.50 odds) – 60% (1.67 odds) and aim to place the smaller percentage bet with the bookmaker. Of course, not every bet will go your way – some back bets will ultimately win, and therefore increase your bookmaker balance rather than reducing it. But if you always aim to back the smaller percentage bet (not the smaller odds) with the bookie, then in the long-run you will end up transferring your balances.

        If you aim to make arbitrage on every transaction through shrewd use of odds movements, then this pays for your time in performing the transactions.

        For me, it’s a nice challenge – I enjoy doing it because at the end of the day it is purely a housekeeping exercise, which I receive a reward (the arbs) for performing. The frustration of seeing bookmaker balances build-up unintentionally is tempered by the fact that the bottom line is still increasing.

        Do your matched betting in small chunks. Choose even-figured stakes with the bookie (i.e. a flat figure of say £100, rather than say £101.23). Do it only on the premier leagues in different countries. If you start using obscure fixtures for this exercise, you’ll get picked up quicker.

        Lastly, try and get both sides of the bet placed before the event goes live. You really don’t want to be exposed in-play waiting for a price to drop before you place the second bet – Sod’s law always seems to operate when the game goes against you, and the price you are looking for slides further and further out of reach.

        My advice is to attend to the matched betting side of the book-keeping once your campaign has finished. You’ll then hopefully have sufficient funds in exchange or multi-platform accounts to lever out the bookmaker account money. You don’t want to leave yourself short of funds during the campaign with money tied-up in non-portfolio bets.

        I hope this all helps!

        • simon
          9 August 2017 at 12:26 pm #

          RW,

          Thanks for the reply and advice.

          Interestingly enough, although I do find Pinnacles odds to be streets ahead of most other bookmakers, they only seem to be bettered by one book – that’s Marathonbet when underdogs are concerned. So I find myself with most of my winnings now sitting in marathonbet, with vodds a close 2nd.

          I think I will paper test the matched betting side of things and perhaps try and get a little bit out of marathon bet and into smarkets/vodds as I go along.

          • Right Winger
            9 August 2017 at 1:53 pm #

            Hello again Simon,

            I am assuming that you are accessing Pinnacle through Vodds?

            Yes, both Pinnacle and Marathonbet are low margin bookmakers. In other words, they carry less overround than most bookies, a consequence of which, is higher prices to the customer (and higher popularity).

            Their idea is to increase turnover in this fashion, which offsets the fact that their profit margins are smaller than most bookies.

            Because they have to work harder for their money, their prices adjust far more often than other, higher overround bookies. The juggling act they have to perform to maintain a balanced portfolio is therefore more precise than others – it has to be.

            But their strategy has to cap the prices on the underdogs – because of the reduced overround they don’t want a huge influx of money on the favourites. This is why you will often see Pinnacle and Marathonbet offering better prices than most on the underdog and the draw – they effectively lead with these prices and then dip in and out of the market with occasional best price on the favourites to maintain balance.

            Good luck with the matched betting. I remember my first ever effort years ago. Instead of making a profit out of a free bet, I ended up with no profit at all on either side of the bet – a zero sum game! Sometimes, you have to learn the hard way! 🙂

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