# How we made £20k in 214 days with the Winter League HDAFU Tables

## Summary

Looks good so far, doesn’t it?

But now it’s time for a stern reality check.

Looking objectively at the results it is clear to see the extent to which the portfolio underperformed:

• Hit Rate

At face value, the actual hit rate of 37.31% does not seem far adrift of the average hit rate mooted for the portfolio, which was 38.87%. However, the reality of this small difference is 28.5 fewer winning bets: 1,828 bets @ 38.87% hit rate = 710.5 winners versus the actual number of 682 winning bets.

The financial effects can be fairly estimated using a control, the most appropriate of which, is the harmonic mean odds. These were recorded at 2.98. (See Chrono tab, cell L1838).

28.5 winning bets all at odds of 2.98 would have equated to an additional profit of £5,643 (28.5 x 198), which in turn would have pushed the total profit for the portfolio to a figure of £25,246.

So, due to just a small hit rate deviation (1.56%), our actual profit figure of £19,603 was only 77.6% of the notional £25,246.

The small difference is therefore not so small at all: likely, it deprived us of more than a fifth (22.4%) of what should have been ours.

• Accumulative Ratios: Winning & Losing Streaks

In the Summary tab, you will find the benchmark for the winning and losing streaks in columns P and Q, whilst the results are in Y and Z. The accumulative highs recorded for 2011-16 were 134 for the winning streaks and 260 for the losing streaks. These figures represent the sum of the highest values experienced in each system over five full seasons.

Albeit not scientific, this does allow us to produce a ratio, which we have called the win-to-lose ratio.

The win-to-lose ratio provides us with a notional measure only of the power and accumulative effects of the losing streaks over the winning streaks.

Although in 2016-17, the damage caused by the losing streaks was less than the worst case scenario (215 vs. 260 = 82.69%), the power of the winning streaks to counter was also reduced (85 vs. 134 = 63.43%).

The maximum losing streaks were therefore less than 18% away from being at their predicted worst, whilst the winning streaks were over 36% away from being at their best.

The net effect was that the balance tipped further towards the losing streaks as they increased their ‘detrimental effect’ from 65.99% in the cold analysis (Summary tab cell Q40) to 71.67% in the field (cell Z40).

Although the numbers arguably mean nothing, they do allow us to feel how the portfolio was under more stress than had been expected. The maximum winning streaks were down further than the maximum losing streaks, and therefore the overall balance of power held by the losing streaks increased and caused more damage than anticipated.

• Reduced Yield

The combination of the two factors above had a detrimental effect on yield, which at 10.72%, was less than the 12.17% profited by the smaller 2016 Summer League programme (only 825 bets = 45% of the size of the Winter League Campaign).

• Zero Odds Increase

In the Summary tab, cells L1839-40 show that the break-even odds for the portfolio increased from 2.57 expected, to 2.68 actual, another sign that the portfolio performed worse than anticipated.

• Despite all of these failings, the bottom line was that this portfolio still made almost £20,000
• Add the concurrent Summer League Campaign results, and the total is just shy of £30,000
• Factor in a similar increase suggested by our ratchet and stop-loss staking plan, and the total becomes a few pounds over £42,000
• And all with relatively small stakes…

## Final Words

This campaign has proved once again that profit size is directly influenced by both portfolio size and staking plan.

In simple terms, the larger the number of targeted value bets, the bigger the profits.

Even at a relatively modest yield of 10.72%, the higher number of bets (turnover) created almost double the profits of the 2016 Summer League Campaign, which finished with a higher yield of 12.17%.

The Summer League Campaign was therefore more efficient in converting turnover to profits, whilst the Winter League Campaign was more of a brute-force success, relying on the sheer numbers of bets.

Portfolio size is therefore a huge part of successful betting: the bookmaker business model is based around this very fact.

The 2016-17 analysis suggested a final profit figure of anywhere between £1,361 and £39,280. (Summary tab cells L35 & M35). At £19,603, it finished not far away from the equidistant point of £20,320.

The 2016 Summer League analysis suggested a profit of somewhere between £1,338 and £20,257. At £10,038, it was again not far from the equidistant point of £10,797.

If you are new to staking plans, hopefully the stake ratchet and stop-loss simulation will introduce new ways of tactical thinking and effective money management in a betting arena.

Money begets money, and it is a no-brainer to raise the ante with incremental ratchets in order to increase turnover. In any line of business, larger turnover means larger profits. The ratchet focuses on working the profits already banked in order to inflate the bottom line.

By contrast, the stop-loss mechanism is a ratchet in reverse, and acts like a tourniquet to stem a tide of losses. It prevents your bank (and your confidence) from being pummelled by the full effects of any bad run of results you may encounter.

Use a ratchet mechanism for adventure, and a stop-loss provision for insurance. Hoist up the stakes when all is fair and good, and don’t be afraid to haul them back in again during a storm.

Plan out the whole campaign, stay in control of it, and don’t waiver from the plan unless you’ve won more than is satisfactory…

…There is never any shame in quitting whilst ahead.

And talking of quitting, this will perhaps be the last review of a portfolio campaign we do for a while.

We are so sorry, but they are just so time-consuming to prepare and publish (apologies to all of you who have been let down by the continually postponed publication date of this article in the last three weeks). And besides, we think we have already done enough to explain how to compile a portfolio and how to run one.

We have now written one review of a Summer League Campaign, and this one for a Winter League Campaign. Together, both reports should provide you with the tools to go off and do this for yourself. And besides, we feel that any future reviews would end up repeating a lot of what we have already reported. Just think of it as the law of diminishing returns in action…

Oh, and one last thing of great importance. Please do not use old analyses like this one, or out of date HDAFU tables, to base your bets upon in a future season. Everything has to be recalibrated at the end of a season, and things definitely do change according to the revised pool of historical statistics. Either the inflection points of a bet type will radically alter, or the bet type itself will become redundant to a better alternative.

And here’s another opportunity to obtain the 2016-17 Campaign Excel workbook:

>>> 2016-17 winter league campaign <<<

Last Update: 2 August 2017

### 194 Responses to “How we made £20k in 214 days with the Winter League HDAFU Tables”

1. Simon Brooker
25 June 2017 at 2:46 pm #

Hi Soccerwidow,

At first glance, the results of your 2016-17 campaign are fantastic. I’m going to go through your campaign in detail and learn what I can about how and why you put it together, and then hopefully go some way towards achieving what you guys did in that season.

One other thing I wanted to say about what you offer at Soccerwidow….the material – free and paid for – is so valuable and really does teach people what they need to know in order to understand the betting market and what is profitable and what is not, the pitfalls and the best way forward.

I’m very much like you in that I don’t see the value in blindly following another person’s picks, but when someone doesn’t know the betting market or how to go about it themselves, blind faith is what a lot of people gravitate towards.

With your products they really do teach people and empower them to be able to make their own decisions and do things the right way. I feel I have learned a tremendous amount since I found your website and am very much looking forward to putting it into practice in this upcoming football season.

Great job on what you guys do at Soccerwidow!

Simon.

• Right Winger
25 June 2017 at 3:58 pm #

Thanks for your very kind words, Simon.

Yes, the results were good, even with a below par set of results in many of the leagues.

We think the achievement is further glossed by the fact that the stakes used were all relatively small. Replicating our success should therefore be within the financial reach of many people.

Keep in touch and let us know how you get on with your own campaigns!

All the best for now.

2. acepoint
25 June 2017 at 6:23 pm #

Hi again,

first of all thx a lot for your valuable insights. Today I have studied the article and the excel sheet a little bit, and two or three questions/remarks are nagging at me:

1) I would have expected more 1A/1B splits in the winter league, especially for leagues with a true winter break like Switzerland and Poland.

2) You also offer Scotland and Croatia in your HDAFU panel, but I’m missing them in the 2011-16 example. On the other side you don’t offer Countries/leagues like Israel, Northern Ireland and Wales or some East European leagues (maybe there is a reason for excluding the latter, but I don’t see any for the first three).

3) Regarding the ratchet/stop-loss scenario: Is there a direct (maybe negative) correlation between the steps (here 1000 units and 5%) and the longest expected win or loss series?

3. Right Winger
25 June 2017 at 6:46 pm #

Hello Acepoint,

1) It was all just a question of time in preparing the analysis – we were so short on time. The Summer League campaign was already in full flow, there was so much work to do on the website, and in the end, we had to go with the whole season analyses in many of the leagues. Indeed, the current stock of Summer and Winter League tables is the first we have offered for sale with the A/B splits.

2) Scotland and Croatia are newcomers to the fold, so the tables for these weren’t in existence at the start of the 2016-17 seasons. A few seasons ago, we offered Wales and Northern Ireland, but not a single person bought one. What we offer now is simply based on the question of demand and supply.

We try and use the larger, more popular leagues, which tend to be less under-priced than a lot of the fringe leagues.

Remember, the less popular a league is in terms of money wagered by punters, the harder it is for the bookmakers to balance their books, hence their need to under-price far more in, say Wales, than they would in the EPL.

Also, the eastern-European leagues are dogged by match-fixing problems, either criminally, or by mutual consent of the teams involved. You can see this to less of an extent in leagues like Greece or Italy Serie B, where the last few rounds of a season always create strange prices. For example, when a draw is good for both teams, it suddenly becomes the shortest of the 1×2 prices because the bookies know that both teams are likely to play for the draw. Turkey’s last scandal was in 2011.

Hungary, Bulgaria and Serbia may make future appearances in the complement of tables, but Ukraine is in a mess, and personally I wouldn’t wager a penny on the Romanian Liga 1, as sources there tell me it is corrupt to the core, but then again, that’s pretty much public knowledge…

3) No. There didn’t need to be. We knew the portfolio was going to make money, so we have simulated a sensible approach to the staking plan purely as an example to expand readers’ thinking in this direction.

I hope this helps!

Best regards.

4. Gabriel
27 June 2017 at 2:55 pm #

Hi! I am just writing to congratulate you on the excellent analysis on both summer and winter leagues. These material in soccerwidow is mandatory for any serious ante-post bettor. Being a statistician, I value these posts in a way you cannot imagine. Thanks again!

Best regards and profits to us all!

Gabriel

• Right Winger
27 June 2017 at 3:28 pm #

Blush!

Thanks for your kind words, Gabriel!

We shall continue to remain humble servants to our valued readers! 🙂

5. jo
27 June 2017 at 5:53 pm #

hi Right Winger,

1. how did you calculate starting bank? I used your free excel sheet “winning losing streaks” to calculate starting bank based on your forecast number of 1838 bets and hit rate of 38.87%. With hit rate rounded to 40%, risk coefficient of 3 and 100 units stakes starting bank should be 4500 units. Yours was only 2000 units. Of course, it depends on chosen risk coefficient, but if to take each strategy separately to calculate its starting bank just 3 strategies could easily require larger starting bank than 4500 units. And starting bank for those 22 systems would require quite an amount of money. I’m confused?
2. Why Stake Ratchet & Stop-loss Mechanism was used for the whole portfolio instead of using it for each league separately? This type of approach mean stakes are also increased or reduced for systems that are performing well or failing.

6. Right Winger
27 June 2017 at 7:45 pm #

Hello again Jo,

I did mention at the end of the ratchet and stop-loss section on page 4 of this article that the staking plan example was a simulation only.

The vast majority of punters don’t even know what a staking plan is or how to calculate a starting bank, let alone deal with a portfolio of multiple systems all running parallel, or calculate the systems in the first place.

I have therefore kept this section of the article as simple as possible just to switch the majority of people on to thinking about proper money management.

Yes, I remember saying in the Summer League Campaign report that we would apply the ratchet and stop-loss simulation separately to each league and show the results, but I just did not have the time to do this – I had not allowed for the early start to some of the 2017-18 leagues this year (due to the World Cup next year), which only became apparent when putting together the Winter League Tables for sale. It was therefore more important to give people as much time to analyse the tables by getting them published as early as possible.

I’m sorry if you’re disappointed, but my advice is to concentrate on the big picture. Sometimes the small details are just not consequential enough to worry about.

If you want to simulate the ratchet and stop-loss applied to each league individually, then I would be happy to publish your findings on the blog. I am sure this approach would have produced even higher profits, but in practise, it is very complicated to manage and more time-consuming to perform. Probably better to stick to the overall approach mentioned, especially as each system is part of a team anyway.

And you must remember that a portfolio approach is all about synergy. The longest losing streak of any one system is always going to be absorbed by the other systems around it. In the case of our portfolio, the EPL suggested the longest individual streak at 31 losses. As it panned out, the portfolio produced a longest run of just 12 consecutive losses.

Don’t worry, it is a good thing to be curious and to want to form your own opinions of things. Nothing is gospel and there is certainly no bible about betting in existence. We write about our own experiences based on our own level of statistical knowledge and maths. Perhaps there are others out there with even higher standards than us, but this is the only website I am aware of prepared to help people increase their levels of knowledge and understanding.

And at the end of the day, we can teach, but we can’t make decisions or place bets on your behalf.

For the sake of good order, I will add a link to the winning and losing streaks article on page 4, and thank you once again for your valuable contribution.

7. Gabriel
27 June 2017 at 11:12 pm #

Hi again, RW!

Are HDAFU tables and methods to build a system also appliable to group stage competitions, such as Libertadores, Champions League and Europa League? Or even to Europe or South América World Cup Qualifiers?

I understand that playoffs are off the table, but I see these competitions mentioned above as a middle ground between the regular legues and the playoffs.

• Right Winger
28 June 2017 at 12:06 am #

Hello again Gabriel,

The competitions you mention do have group stages (i.e. a mini league format), but there are simply not enough of those games to form any level of statistical significance over a relevant period of time (say five seasons).

All qualifying-round and knock-out-stage games in those competitions would effectively be cup games, and therefore off the agenda as being too volatile to predict.

In the Champions League, for example, I think there are only 96 group-stage games per season. The smallest league we analyse for the HDAFU tables is Iceland with 132 games per season.

Also, league-games-only is a far more predictable science as each season contains a similar number of the same teams. In other words, over five seasons, the turnover of different teams is likely to be a lot lower in a league than it is in the Champions League.

A lower turnover of teams means a lot more games between the same teams in five seasons and therefore a more standardised data set. You might have some of the same teams represented in the Champions League, such as Real Madrid, Man Utd, Juventus, etc., but they might not ever play each other in five seasons of group games (more statistical noise created).

Keep it simple – stick to top-flight leagues – there are plenty of matches to bet on there!

I hope this helps your thinking and thanks again for writing!

8. Daniel
28 June 2017 at 12:39 pm #

Hi Right Winger,

As always, excellent job, and congratulations on the results achieved!
I noticed two systems in the portfolio with high expected losing streak, England Premier League (31), and Netherlands Eredivisie (29). Both surpasses your previous recommendations of trying to stay below 20, by far. I know in the end it’s all a matter of personal preference and attitude toward risk, i’m just curious to know your thought process that led to the selection of this two particular systems. What made you close an eye on the losing streak figure?

Thanks!

• Right Winger
28 June 2017 at 3:04 pm #

Hello again Daniel,

I’m afraid to say that the decisions made on those two leagues were not scientific.

You will see in a couple of my replies above (see 25/06/17 to Acepoint), that we were simply rushed for time and I was faced with a “take it or leave it” decision.

But with the EPL and Eredivisie being two of the top six most popular leagues, I couldn’t really leave them out of the campaign, even with their 31 and 29 estimated streaks respectively.

This time last year was such a hectic period that I couldn’t finish the analyses in time – some of the leagues did receive the benefit of all three analyses (whole season basis, 1st half season, 2nd half season), whilst with others, I was only able to carry out one analysis (the whole season).

Ordinarily I would say to everyone to stick with the maximum of 20 losing streak as a rule of thumb, with perhaps a little leeway.

At the time, and with my experience of running these campaigns, I didn’t think it would make a huge difference to the results. Perhaps things could have been improved in the EPL, but I was more than happy with the Eredivisie outcome.

Again, I think it shows the power of a portfolio approach based on inflection points that a healthy profit can be made, even if the most optimal systems are not chosen, although I would always recommend taking the time to perform the job properly.

If I had had time to do a perfect job on the analysis, results may have been even better, but ultimately, there was no spilt milk to cry over.

Thanks for your question – it was a good point to bring up.

9. Gabriel
29 June 2017 at 4:23 pm #

Hi, about splitting system into 1st and 2nd half, what would you do if a smooth rising line would show up in a whole season analysis but by splitting them it would show more profit?

For example: analysing a whole season, the inflection points I decided to use were from 3.1 to 3.9. But, if I split it in 2 half seasons, I would have better results by using 2.9 to 3.4 in 1st half and 3.2 to 3.9 in 2nd half.

Resuming: what is the main variable to be analysed in cases (there are many) like this? The stability? The bigger profit? The clear half cut in the season during winter, for example?

Thanks!

• Right Winger
29 June 2017 at 5:09 pm #

Hello again Gabriel,

The main decision-making factor has to be a combination of personal choice and risk acceptance.

Although I was pressed for time in making the analyses for the article above, I made sure, from the results I had at my disposal, to compile a portfolio containing an even balance of low, medium and high risk.

So, yes, find the systems with the highest profit and incorporate them into a team of systems.

Once you have your best team of systems planned out on paper, you may have to do some rearranging (i.e. substituting a split analysis in one league, for the whole season analysis instead, or vice versa), to ensure the portfolio is balanced from a risk perspective.

It’s stability in the whole portfolio you are looking for, not necessarily within individual leagues, but if your inflection points show odds clusters above the zero odds in each system (remember page 3 of the User Guide), you will certainly make money in the long run.

10. jo
30 June 2017 at 11:47 am #

hi Right Winger,

my current portfolio with 30 strategies has uneven balance of risk. 40% low risk, 16% low-medium risk, 33% medium risk and 10% medium-hight risk strategies. Majority, 67% of them, have no losing season out of 5 and substituting them to balance the risk more evenly would mean to incorporate strategies that have 1 losing season out of 5 instead of none and (or) less balanced hit rate and (or) less balanced number of matches and (or) lower profits over 5 seasons. Of course, you won’t see exact numbers to judge, but in order to balance the risk more evenly, would it be a better trade in your eyes?
And what is better to you: a strategy that has zero odds below first infection point, but 1 losing season over 5 years, or zero odds above first inflection point, but profit in all 5 previous seasons?

• Right Winger
30 June 2017 at 1:45 pm #

Hi Jo,

The portfolio you have suggested is a little bottom heavy. In other words, you are going to see a larger percentage of games at lower odds, which will tend to produce a more jagged profit curve (you may not see your portfolio constantly in profit from the start).

The main purpose of the lower odds games is to fill-in the gaps between the losing bets at higher odds. If you remember the inflection point graph in the 2016 Summer League Campaign spreadsheet, it was a zero-sum game up to odds of around 2.28. Because you have a higher proportion of lower risk strategies, you may see this figure pushed upwards (e.g. a zero sum game up to odds of 2.50?).

Your profit curve will look more like the Summer League Campaign than the more efficient Winter League strategy. Your profits will be lower because you are playing a lower risk strategy. It will also be harder to recover losses if your wins are relatively small at that end of the spectrum. You might find it frustrating as the going will be slow – three steps forwards and two back. If it were me, I would find a better balance.

It is always better to have the zero odds below the lower inflection point as every bet you make will be a value bet, which is a strategy that will guarantee long-term profits. If you start surrendering value, you will hamstring yourself. I would rather have value on my side than an analysis with all five seasons in profit.

I hope this assists!

• acepoint
1 July 2017 at 10:42 am #

An additional question: Isn’t the number of (possible) games in each league also important for the risk strategy? I would assume that for judging the portfolio’s risk you have to weight the risk in each league.

A simple example:

Two leagues, one with a low risk strategy (e.g. home wins between 1.8 – 2.2 and 200 games), combined with a medium-high to high risk strategy in another league (e.g. underdog wins between 4.5 and 7.5 and 30 games).

• Right Winger
2 July 2017 at 2:16 pm #

Hello again Acepoint,

Your example is a good one, dealing with two opposite strategies in two different leagues.

With a lower risk strategy, you will always be faced with a higher number of bets than with a higher risk strategy, and vice versa.

In other words, with lower odds, you need a higher number of winning bets to create the profit, and vice versa with higher odds.

The risk of each strategy never changes – every bet within the inflection points chosen carries the implied probabilities of those odds. It is not affected by what happens in a different strategy bearing different implied probabilities.

Combining the strategies or weighting them in accordance with each other to obtain some sort of overall measure of risk is therefore going to distort the picture.

Therefore, what we don’t want to do is dilute the extremes of our risk spectrum (i.e. the lowest and highest ends). We therefore take each system in each league on its own merits and line them up alongside each other.

I hope I have understood your question correctly.

11. Gabriel
30 June 2017 at 11:57 pm #

Hi again, RW. I am very excited to the upcoming season in applying all the knowledge learned here in the last few months.

A couple more questions:

1) I found very healthy inflection points in 2nd divison leagues of England, Italy, France and Germany. You held to France only. Is there a specific reason? Also, these other 3 have very good liquidity. Why not them? Aren’t they better and more liquid than Croatian, for example?

2) About odds movement: would it be correct to collect data from footballdata (friday 18h) and oddsportal (closing odds) to compares odds movement per league and per bet type (HDAFU) to try to antecipate betting movements? That would help, in my point of view, to place bets before the one hour ante post. Does that make any sense or it is impossible to antecipate those movements due to news about the teams at the last hour or so? Does this enormous effort compensate? Also, oddsportal collects opening odds x closing odds. Now, that would be enormous work because one cant copy paste these data. Please, some kind words about this topic.

Best regards!

• Right Winger
2 July 2017 at 2:38 pm #

Hi Gabriel,

Your question is worthy of a series of articles, so I will try and be brief!

We tend to look at only the top-tier leagues in each country because they are far more stable in their composition than any of the leagues below (and therefore give more reliable results).

For example, in France Ligue 1, 65% of teams have been ‘ever-present’ in the five seasons from 2012-17 (and also in the five seasons from 2011-16). Compare this with Ligue 2, and you will see that the latter has only a 35% rate of ever-present teams during those same periods.

The fact that the composition of lower leagues is so greatly affected by teams leaving/joining as a result of relegation/promotion creates a good deal of statistical noise. Results just aren’t as reliable because there are fewer games involving the same ‘established’ teams each season.

Ligue 2 is the only second tier we look at purely because of the prevalance of one particular bet type, which is almost unique to this league.

In reply to point 2, unfortunately, Football-data.co.uk collects its data at two separate times during a week. Fridays for weekend games and Mondays (I believe) for midweek games, which is why we need a more reliable benchmark for odds.

Oddsportal includes time stamps for when the odds were recorded and also red/green arrows indicating which way the odds have moved (from the opening odds of each bookmaker to the odds currently displayed).

If you study Oddsportal from the opening of the market in any particular round of games not yet played and watch/record the odds as they change during the ante post period, then you will have a good idea of how the market moves. I can say that with a lot of experience watching odds movements, the trends are fairly predictable, and help us judge when we can place bets at optimum prices.

This also helps us avoid congestion on days where we can see there may be a glut of bets all needing to be placed within a short space of time – we can place them further in advance and still get prices within the inflection points, sometimes a lot better than the closing odds.

Therefore, there is no need to collect data from more than one point during the ante post period for the inflection points analysis.

I hope this helps.

12. Simon
4 July 2017 at 11:06 pm #

I won’t mention the particular league this question relates to so as not to give away any specific content, but was wondering if I could get an opinion on something please.

It’s a first half workbook, and of particular interest to me is the draw bet type, which gives a reasonably profitable medium risk (I think) system. The profit curve increases smoothly from odds of 3.22 up until 3.38 and then levels off briefly before dropping off and then increasing again smoothly.

So it seems there is sweet spot in the lower odds range, followed by a brief period of statistical noise and then another decent profit increase. So I looked at 3 things in detail here; the first rising portion of the curve, the second rising portion, and then the entire curve.

I found the following:

Odds 3.22 – 3.38: Profit 5072, zero odds 2.43, hit rate 41.13%, yield 35.97, 28 total bets, losing streak 8.

Odds 3.5 – 3.68: Profit 4659, zero odds 2.73, hit rate 36.6%, yield 30.45, 31 total bets, losing streak 9

Both of those sets of odds ranges were in profit 4 out of 5 seasons. The gap between the 2 systems is the statistical noise you mentioned in the article.

Then I looked at Odds 3.22 – 3.68 to see what effect the statistical noise had on the outcome, and found this….Profit 7536, zero odds 2.93, hit rate 34.17, yield 17.28, 87 total bets, losing streak 9. Interestingly it was in profit 5 out of 5 seasons.

My first option would be simply to go with the system with inflection points 3.22 -3.68, which to me looks good. I could also go with the entire odds range of 3.22 – 3.68 to access the higher profit at the expense of hit rate, yield, and having to place more bets.

Then I thought to myself, well why not just run both systems for the first half? They don’t conflict with each other, they are the same bet type in the same league, all I’m doing is cutting out an unprofitable section between 2 very steady portions of the curve. And by doing so I would increase the 5 season profit by 4659 and only need to place 30 extra bets, taking the total estimated bets for this first half system to 59.

Does this sound feasible to you given the figures I have found? Or would I be better served here by just going with the 3.22 – 3.38 system?

Thanks.

• Right Winger
5 July 2017 at 12:31 pm #

Hi Simon,

For us, the decision is not to run split systems in the same league.

As mentioned in Page 1 of the User Guide, we have found that the synergy effect gained of running only the best single system from a league is detrimentally affected if you begin running competing systems in the same league.

Therefore, we would suggest choosing just one of the three options you have outlined. Either go with the longer 3.22-3.68 cluster (more bets but higher potential profit), or choose one of the two segments within this cluster, i.e. the 3.22-3.38 or 3.50-3.68.

Of the two smaller segments, the first is better (higher profit, fewer bets).

Ultimately, the choice is yours and is probably easier to make once you have a rough idea what the risk profile of your portfolio is after you have highlighted the best systems in each league.

Remember, try to keep the portfolio as a whole as balanced as you can. Choose whichever system adds or maintains balance to the portfolio as a whole.

I hope this is clear!

13. simon
5 July 2017 at 1:25 pm #

Thanks for the reply, that makes sense. Focus on the best only.

At present the 3.22 – 3.68 odds cluster is the one I had chosen for that league for the 1st half, and would be one of the medium risk systems. Then for the 2nd half in that league there is a solid favourite system that I had chosen as a low risk.

I think I’m almost there really when it comes to the portfolio – but am just tinkering to see where I can make things better, if that’s possible.

There are 20 systems I have assembled in total; 4 low risk, 5 low-medium risk, 6 medium risk and 5 medium-high/High risks. In fairness I have modelled it in large part on the successful one you illustrated, to get a similar balance.

I’m not a high risk type of person though, preferring moderate risk with a tinge of something higher risk included. Some of the underdog systems I have analysed with big profits but come with between 20-30 game losing streaks are something I’d rather stear clear of! With what I have now, 6 of the systems have double figure losing streaks, but all under 20. That’s palatable for me especially as the lower risk systems balance that out with the longer winning streaks.

I know I won’t make the portfolio perfect (doubt that is possible anyway) since this is my first attempt, but overall I’m happy with the way it looks so far. All that remains is to see how it fares in a couple of weeks when the first games start.

• Right Winger
5 July 2017 at 1:51 pm #

Hello again Simon,

Don’t worry, there is no such thing as the ‘perfect portfolio’ but I’m afraid you will need to get used to the ‘high risk’ element as it is a vital constituent of the whole mix, especially if you are going to achieve profits worthy of the time you’ll need to run the operation.

Bookmakers rely to a certain extent on the psychology of the majority of punters to make their profits. People tend to back lower priced favourites (usually under-priced) because they think they are more likely to win, and also because they are scared of backing a rank outsider.

Running a mixed risk portfolio allows you to gamble on the higher prices (and reap the higher rewards), because the lower priced bets provide a safety net.

It sounds like you have a good understanding of the concepts we have outlined, so, good luck – hope it all goes well for you!

14. jo
6 July 2017 at 12:56 am #

Hi Right Winger,

can you explain more in detail how do you compile Inflection Points graph? Odds are ranked from 1 to 200 in both summer and winter leagues campaigns. In Summer league campaign every number is repeated 4 times 7 times in a row, and every 8th number is repeated 5 times in a row (8, 16, 24 and so on). As I understand it’s because you get round cluster size number for odds rank no. 8 – 33.000, then for 16 – 66.000 and so on. Or, whenever you get closest to round number, for instance in winter league it’s odds rank 7 and cluster size of 63.980. Regarding my own portfolio, to make my own inflection points graph with data taken from HDAFU tables of the 2016-2017 winter leagues season, there are 1452 bets. 1452 divided by 200 equals 7.26. I tried to calculate the right sequence how to spread and repeat odds rank numbers evenly across those 200 and it didn’t work out. I finally finished with 202. But numbers of odds rank in some cases are repeated for 7 times and every 8th number for 8 times and then I have intervals where same odds rank numbers are repeated for 7 times 15 times in a row. A bit chaotic, but just to finish “ranking” around 200 because I struggle to calculate the right sequence. It was not the easiest thing to explain, but I hope you understand what I mean.

• Right Winger
6 July 2017 at 1:44 am #

Hello Jo,

Yes, I know exactly what you mean and I think you have described it rather eloquently.

And I’m afraid my answer is going to disappoint you.

I’m sorry but this is one of our ‘trade secrets’, and we are not prepared to divulge or give away for free this part of our intellectual property.

The clustering sequence is just a small part of the HDAFU table compilation process. There are other bits of the jigsaw you haven’t mentioned, which are also essential to know and get right when putting the tables together.

And some of the formulas needed to calculate vital areas of the tables will not be found in the actual tables themselves.

Of course, from a personal perspective, I am 100% proficient in putting the tables together. I’m very fast as I know exactly what I’m doing, and even have the raw data set-out in an optimum design to copy and paste nicely into the template.

But even at a lightning pace, it still takes me at least 20 minutes to put a single table together (more than an hour for one league), and then more time to review that everything is okay and cross-checking nicely.

Today’s product is the culmination of several years of work. We allow people to buy the tables but I’m afraid we will never reveal the recipe for making them.

And I would strongly advise against anyone trying to copy them as, if you don’t have the various formulas for certain parts of the table, you will not even know if the information you receive from your end product is correct or not.

The probable knock-on effect would then be reliance on a totally false picture, which will only lead to disappointment (at the very least) when it comes to investing money on it.

This is therefore our health warning – put together your own tables at your own peril!

There are over 100 steps involved, many of them requiring to be performed in a certain order – cracking the exact code and sequence is probably akin to the old statistical theory of countless monkeys on countless typewriters. (The Infinite Monkey Theorem). Good luck to anyone who can do it!

Sorry again Jo!

• jo
6 July 2017 at 6:28 pm #

No problem Right Winger, I understand.

Regarding my portfolio, after your previous comment I made a lot of changes and now instead of low risk strategies, medium risk strategies makes it unbalanced: 19% low risk, 25% low-medium risk, 51% medium risk and 3% medium-high risk strategies. 31 strategy in total. I checked everything thoroughly and making any better balance would mean to exclude some strategies or leagues from betting. What can you say about portfolio when higher risk strategies, in this case medium risk, are dominant over the others? Is it a good idea to exclude some of them to make the portfolio more evenly balanced? Just two of all strategies have zero odds higher than first inflection point, but no more than 0.04.

• Right Winger
6 July 2017 at 8:56 pm #

Hi Jo,

I think I would be a little uncomfortable with a portfolio biased towards medium risk strategies.

You have a fair enough representation of low/low-medium risk systems, but the higher end, in other words, medium-high and high risk strategies is hardly represented at all.

With the portfolio you have suggested I imagine that you may see a profit, but it won’t come close to the type of figures we achieved in the 2016-17 Winter League Campaign.

You need the higher odds bets to make the money. The smaller odds bets create the safety net to allow you to speculate on the higher risk bets. This is a key element of the portfolio approach.

The old adage ‘speculate to accumulate’ applies to any form of investment – life is one big gamble in general. If you don’t include room to speculate in your portfolio, then I imagine you will perform a lot of work placing many bets, with perhaps a less than satisfactory outcome at the end.

You could be looking at a yield far less than 10%. Too many small odds bets will make it harder to recover losses. See also my answer to Simon from yesterday at 1.51pm.

In summary, I think your suggestion has the potential to make money, but you’ll have to have an exceptional season to see a profit size that will make all the work worthwhile. If your season is as bad as the reality check on page 5 of this article, you may even lose money.

But if you’re looking for an introduction to gain a little experience running a multi-risk portfolio, then go with it. If it is going to lose, I think it will lose slowly, giving you the option to cut and run if you get fed up with it.

I hope this is useful.

15. Daniele
7 July 2017 at 2:59 pm #

Hello Right Winger,

i am in the final stages of the analysis and i wanted to ask you for an opinion about the spread of risk of my portfolio. I have just selected the best systems (as far as i can tell) from each Championship, 39 systems in total. I have selected 4 low risk, 8 low-medium, 11 medium, 3 medium-high and 13 high risk systems. The ratio in % is: low 10%, low-medium 21%, medium 28%, medium-high 8% and high 33%. Looking at the spread on your campaigns i notice that i have slightly more systems at the upper and lower end and less in the medium range. So i want an opinion from you.. what do you think about my spread? Do you find it balanced or should i fine tune it to balance it more?

Thanks, i’m really looking forward to the beginning of this season (in a week or so for the early championships)!

• Right Winger
7 July 2017 at 3:08 pm #

Hello Daniele,

I would be happier with a more even spread across the board.

With fewer bets at the lower odds range, your portfolio will find it difficult to make-up for the losing streaks at the higher odds range.

Whilst Jo’s portfolio (see 6th July above), has a chance of making money (as it is biased towards lower risk), I think your current arrangement will struggle more.

Increase the low risk and medium-high risk bets and reduce the high risk bets for a better balance.

Good luck!

• Daniele
8 July 2017 at 5:38 am #

I noticed though that in this article you stated that you chose a spread of 4 low, 6 low-medium, 6 medium and 6 high-medium/high, for a total of 22 systems. Looking at the spreadsheet of the campaign I see that the inflection points guidance as per Page 1 of this article does not exactly match what is stated above, and if we analyze the maximum inflection points of each system we count 3 low (max inflection point of 2.22), 2 low-medium (max inflection point of 2.85), 8 medium (max inflection point of 4.44), and 9 medium-high/high systems. Could you please clarify on this matter?

For example, a system in your campaign have odds from 2.13 to 7.40. Don’t you classify it as high risk system? Or another system has odds from 4.25 to 5.25. Don’t you classify this as a medium-high system?

I understand that the first system spread across all 5 categories, and the second have a spread between medium and medium-high. So how do we decide in which category they should fit in?

Thanks!

16. Right Winger
8 July 2017 at 10:41 am #

Hi Daniel,

As mentioned in the article, the odds splits for the risk analysis are a ‘rough guide’ to get readers thinking about the composition of their portfolios, and to encourage people to balance their portfolios with an even spread of risk.

The classifications stated for our 2016-17 portfolio are based to some degree on discretion (also mentioned as an adjustment factor above), and you will see from the 2016-17 Campaign workbook that some of our systems did indeed cross the thresholds of several odds’ bands.

When this happens, we can never be truly exact but we can say from the start that the majority of the bets will fall into one or another of the odds brackets.

Using the example you mentioned, in a system covering a range as wide as Greece between odds of 2.13-7.40, we know from the outset that there will be more bets at the lower end because it is a home win system. Indeed, the analysis showed the harmonic mean odds for the matches between these inflection points as 2.97, which further validated our decision to classify this system with low-medium status.

The harmonic mean for the 110 bets placed was just over 3.00.

As a reminder, the harmonic mean formula in Excel is =harmean(a1:a10), if the range of odds you are looking at encompasses cells A1 to A10.

Perhaps our readers will come up with better ways of gauging the risk content of their portfolios, but the overarching message we are putting across in this article is that a healthy balance should always be sought.

It’s not an exact science, maths never is, but hopefully we have guided you in the right direction.

Another great question – thanks again!

• Simon
10 July 2017 at 12:32 pm #

RW,

I think you did a great job with explaining how you gauge the risk of the system within the context of a portfolio of systems.

When getting the balance in mine as even as I could I relied to an extent on the workbook of your previous campaign to see how you yourself classified a system, taking into account things like the odds range, hit rates, yield, number of bets e.t.c. So it was interesting to see based on these things how you rated your own systems. I then looked at my own systems to see how they looked in terms of risk.

I found the low risk and low-medium risk the easy ones to classify. I look for those systems to have a good length of winning streaks, low length of losing streaks, 50-60%+ hit rates, and of course meeting the 4 of 5 seasons in profit and 10%+ yield. Most of these systems have relatively small odds ranges.

The ones I found a little more difficult to classify were those that had odds range more spread out, like the Greek example you gave. So applying the harmonic mean to it, gives that extra view point that I found helpful to see how risky a system is based on odds the majority of bets placed will be at.

What I had done was analyse each league to identify the systems and then make a spreadsheet that listed each system for whole, 1st half, 2nd half, and show each of the systems features i.e hit rate, zero odds, yield e.t.c

From that I selected those that I felt gave a balance and listed them in order from low risk to high. Applying the harmonic mean odds to each system then showed that the odds increased from low to high, which I think validated that I have my systems in the right sections of the risk profile and have a decent balance.

That’s something I found useful in getting something I was finally happy with.

Now, very much looking forward to the weekend to take things “live”.

Good luck everyone and I wish you all the best for the upcoming season!

17. Scott
9 July 2017 at 7:05 am #

Hi RW – sorry, but I’ve got a question you’ve probably been asked a million times about placement of bets.

I’m currently sorting out getting some money onto Vodds in preparation for the winter season starting, and obviously anticipate being able to access the upper end of the odds range as a result.

My questions are:

1. In terms of bet selection, should I only be placing the bet if the max odds on oddsportal are within my strategy range? I’ve got a summer league campaign running at the minute and I tend to use the upper range as a guide but I always check if the top price looks anomalous – if it does, and if I can access odds within my range, I’ll place the bet. However, I’m never sure if I’m “breaking protocol” here and should be using the top price as the decision point, anomalous or not….I’m conscious there might not be a right answer to this but could you please expand a bit on how you weight your decision on selection.

2. TIming is the other question. I’ve tended to look at the odds an hour or so before K-O and made my decision at that point. However, on occasion I’ll have a cheeky look just before K-O and can sometimes see that the odds have shifted markedly and I’m now in a position where I should be placing a bet. Should I ignore this and not place the bet, or is this now deemed an appropriate selection based on the late odds movement?

Thanks again!

• Right Winger
10 July 2017 at 11:52 am #

Hello Scott,

1) Yes, place the bet in accordance with the highest odds shown in Oddsportal, and yes, it is always a good thing to check for and preclude anomalous odds that haven’t updated for a while.

As previously mentioned, we try and iron out the anomalous odds when putting together the analyses, and for the sake of good order, you should try and do the same when judging whether to place the bet if it is close to the outliers of your odds range.

2) The HDAFU analyses are based on odds as close to the end of the ante post market as we can get them. If towards kick-off you realise that the odds have shifted a bet to within your inflection points then, yes, it is a valid bet to place.

I hope this clarifies.

• Scott
21 July 2017 at 2:37 pm #

Hi – thanks for your reply, and apologies for my delayed response to it. All makes perfect sense, thanks again for taking the time and for your excellent website.

18. Michael
10 July 2017 at 10:01 am #

Hi Soccerwidow

Please could you explain why you went with a system in Denmark despite the 2016/2017 season being the first season after major structural changes?

I would have thought that that was risky in the sense that historical data is now not directly comparable to the new format.

Asking because there’s other leagues with the same problem for the upcoming season, eg Bulgaria / Ukraine.

Been having some good success with a summer leagues system thanks to your work, with roughly £1,200 profit since March.

Thanks

19. Right Winger
10 July 2017 at 11:46 am #

Hi Michael,

I think I have answered this one before to some degree. (Page 2 of this article I believe?).

We were aware that the Danish league format was changing in the second half of the season, hence why we chose to include just a first half season system.

The new first half up to the winter break included straight-forward league matches, just as any other season before. The only difference likely was that there would be more matches encapsulated by our inflection points.

Therefore, for all intents and purposes, the league was no different up to the break than before – just league games during the same part of the year in accordance with the analysis.

Thanks for sharing your Summer League success story – keep in touch and let us know where you end up!

All the best.

• jo
10 July 2017 at 1:41 pm #

Hi Right Winger,

since Danish league had only 1 season in new format, would it be better to skip the 2nd/whole season strategies from betting in the upcoming season?

20. Right Winger
10 July 2017 at 3:51 pm #

Hi Jo,

Personally, I don’t think it matters a great deal.

The only important thing with the new format in Denmark is not to include any Relegation or Europa League play-off games in your strategy.

Also, expect fewer numbers of games entering your inflection points in the second half of the season as there are fewer ‘league’ games after the winter break now.

Check out our Summer & Winter League Calendar for a full summary of what to include and what not to bet on in each league.

21. jo
10 July 2017 at 5:17 pm #

What can you say about my new portfolio, I have 28 strategies left, numbers and percentages are:

5 or 17% low, 5 or 17% low-medium, 5 or 17% medium risk, 8 or 28% medium-high risk and 5 or 17% high risk strategies.

• Right Winger
10 July 2017 at 6:15 pm #

Hi Jo,

Looks like a much better balance than your initial effort.

On face value, I would be happy with these numbers.

Happy hunting!

22. jo
16 July 2017 at 11:39 pm #

Hi Right Winger,

regarding Ratchet & Stop-loss Simulation I don’t completely understand how ratchet system works. The first trigger +5% is when profits are 1947.00 (cell K1850). The second trigger is +15%, from 105% to 120% at cell I1854 although the profit increase from the last trigger is just 2631.3 units (4578.3-1947). And the next increase at cell I1855 is 15% although profit increase from the last trigger is just 2619 units. As far as I understand in these both cases increase should’ve been 10%, so why it’s 15%?

• Right Winger
17 July 2017 at 8:55 pm #

Hello Jo,

Sorry for the delay in replying – we are currently on holiday for the first time in over four years 🙂

As per the article, the 5% increments are based on whole 000’s profit. There are four whole 000’s in 4,578.30, hence why it is 4 x 5% = 20% increment.

The ratchet triggers are when the profit figure exceeds by at least 1,000 the previous highest profit point.

The first trigger was at 1,947 (containing one whole thousand = +5% increment on original stake). The next trigger was activated at 4,578, the first time 1,947 was exceeded by 1,000 or more. (4,578 contains four whole thousands = +20% increment on original stake).

I hope this is now clear!

23. Andrei
28 July 2017 at 7:23 am #

Hello Soccerwidow!

Firstly, I’d like to thank you sincere for the great job you are making. All the forecasting is really based on fundamental thinking and statistics, and not on enthusiasm, which gives us (the punters) the opportunity to earn money for the long term. I’ve managed to understand the logic base of your system and I would say it’s a quite impressive job.

In the same manner, I would like to ask you some questions regarding the odds that you use for statistics and betting:

1. What odds do you use for historical statistics? Example: football-data.co.uk there is a paragraph that offers statistical information for several leagues. They have odds as: averages of the bookmakers, for different bookmakers apart and closing odds of Pinnacle. What are the best odds to use for identifying the inflection points? Personally I chose the average odds, as I intend to make the bet 1 day before the matches (Please correct me if I’m wrong 🙂 ).

2. When is the best time to place the bets? As I said, for me is optimal to place bets one day before the match starts. But as you know, the odds are moving and sometimes some matches that has been picked up (the odds are in the established range) can go out of the range till the start of the match. In result what is the best time to place the bet and what historical odds should be the base for identifying the inflection points?

As I understand these to elements should have some correlation between them.

Thank you for your support and the great job you are making!!! It really is something interesting and totally different from the information existing on the web.

• Right Winger
28 July 2017 at 9:49 pm #

Hi Andrei,

We do not use football-data.co.uk for odds in connection with the HDAFU system betting tables.

The odds they use are taken at different points in time and do not provide a reliable benchmark (Joseph at Football-data.co.uk has advised me that odds are collected around 6pm on a Friday in advance of weekend/Monday games, and around the same time on a Tuesday for midweek games).

To state what is actually said on their site: “Fixtures and betting odds for upcoming games are made available, collected Friday afternoons for weekend fixtures, and on Tuesday afternoons for midweek games”.

We use the highest odds as near to the close of the ante post market as we can find, and Oddsportal is the only site currently providing this.

Many people have asked the same question on the best time to place bets. To save myself from repeating anything, please read the comments above, and also the comments on the Summer League summary. You should find all the answers you are looking for.

Thank you for your kind words and best wishes.

24. Scott
31 July 2017 at 9:28 am #

Hi again

Just something that occurred to me when placing bets over the weekend, and I wondered if it was something you had ever looked into…

When using a back the draw system, I feel much more comfortable backing the draw when the two teams are relatively well matched than I do when there is a strong favourite at home. Even though both matches might fall into the odds range, it would seem likely that the former would have more chance of actually ending in a draw than the latter – I often wonder if the odds for the draw aren’t just a balancing figure?

Anyway, this led me to wondering whether you had ever given any consideration to HO/AO quotients when considering systems that back the draw? Its something I was thinking about looking into with my current systems to see if there’s anything in it…

• Right Winger
31 July 2017 at 10:58 am #

Hello Scott,

Bookmakers rely to a huge extent on the psychology of punters who (wrongly) believe that lower priced favourites have a better chance of winning all the time. As a result, favourites are usually under-priced because the majority of punters want to bet on them. People are by very nature risk-averse. Give someone the choice of a 1.20 favourite or an underdog at 8.00, and nine-out-of-ten punters will opt for the favourite.

The weight of money therefore received by the bookmakers on big favourites drives their prices (odds) even further down as they attempt to balance their books. You must therefore appreciate that in order to achieve as much parity as possible, the bookmakers will reduce prices on the favourites to manage/control the extent of risk (liability), and raise prices on the draw and/or the underdog to attract money on these outcomes. Only by performing this juggling act can they achieve as close a balance as possible between the three outcomes. And of course, heavy favourites do not always win. In fact, they win less often than their (often under-priced) odds imply. This is how bookmakers make their margins.

All I can say is don’t fall into the trap of this false-belief system about a shorter price having a better chance than a longer one. Odds prices are purely a measurement of the popularity of the event (odds are driven by public opinion), and often bear no resemblance to the probabilities of the outcomes.

Just about the only time when prices are set according to historical results and statistics, plus some anticipation of what the public will think, is at the very start of the market when bookmakers publish their initial prices.

Stand back and look at the situation from a distance. There are three outcomes: home win, draw, away win. The prize is behind one of these doors. Which door are you going to open? The chance is a basic one-in-three before you begin to take into consideration any extraneous factors affecting the fixture in question.

In answer to your question, both the draw odds and the underdog prices are balancing factors. The economics of the situation in response to human nature says that they have to be. But think again. The home odds are also a balancing factor. Only one of the three outcomes can happen – the money riding on the other two needs to offset the payout on the winning outcome, and hopefully provide a small margin of profit at the same time. The bookmakers can never achieve this on every single match, which is why they employ a huge portfolio of games to bet on each week. An overround of 5% on their entire book of matches per week is enough to create handsome profits during the course of a season, even if they don’t make a profit every week.

The profits to be made from gambling, from either side of the fence (bookie or punter), are a pure numbers game. The larger the portfolio of bets with overround/value on your side, the more exponential the profits are.

Regarding Home Odds/Away Odds quotients, this is something we explain in great detail in our Odds Calculation Course (using the Over/Under ‘X’ Goals market as the example).

There are many ways to skin a cat. Using inflection points and using quotients are just two of them. My advice is to get used to one system and stick with it until you master it. Don’t try and become a ‘Jack of all trades’.

Believe me, the time it takes to try and juggle too many different approaches and get them all finely-tuned at the same time is not worth the effort.

I hope this helps and thanks for the interesting questions!

25. Tony
5 August 2017 at 1:15 am #

First of all,well done!
And I know you are now expecting a but.
But I’m going to be slightly negative.
Isn’t it quite unlikely that most people would be able to bet £100 stakes 1000 times a year without either not getting the price on betfair or getting restricted or even banned by bookies?
I dont know if that’s the case because I dont bet on 90 minute markets but going by what I’ve read online I suspect that it isn’t easy to make £20,000 from betting such markets without problems.
Also,may I ask whether you had Frej to draw or win at Sirius in late October 2016?

26. Right Winger
5 August 2017 at 2:36 am #

Hello again Tony,

Well, we had no problem flying under the radar at stakes of this level, and none of the bets were placed with Betfair.

We are fans of multi-bookmaker platforms such as Vodds, which give access to Pinnacle, SBOBET, and other sharp Asian bookies, where turnover is appreciated and accounts are never closed or limited. We also utilise individual accounts with 5Dimes, BetVictor, Bet365, Smarkets, and a few others.

The hit rate is usually around 35% on the mixed portfolios we employ, so the bookmakers do see the benefit from us of a lot of losing bets during the course of the year. And not all of the profits get booked against any single account – the final tally is spread around nicely, with the minimum of withdrawals (if any) made from the bookmaker accounts.

The exchange and the multi-platforms are where the withdrawals happen.

No, we didn’t get involved in the match you mention, but then again, the only second division league we cover is France 2. Too much statistical noise in the lower divisions with higher turnovers of teams.

Hope all is well with you and thanks once again for your contribution.

• Simon
8 August 2017 at 12:36 pm #

RW,

In preparation for the winter leagues campaign I set myself up with accounts at places like smarkets and vodds, in addition to other existing accounts I had already.

One thing I certainly don’t want to happen is to be restricted at the traditional bookmakers if winnings build up. As if that happens, it puts a spanner in the works so to speak.

So I’m very interested to learn a little about the movement of money from a traditional book to the exchange for withdrawal purposes.

In your opinion what would be the most effective/efficient way to move the money?

I get the principle that you just want to look like a casual punter to the bookmaker and thus fly under the radar. I’m not experienced at all with “matched betting” and would hate to lose hard earned winnings by making a mistake!

Are there any simple methods you use to get your winnings from bookmaker to exchange that you could share please?

• Right Winger
8 August 2017 at 2:50 pm #

Hi Simon,

Firstly, as you have Smarkets and Vodds, I would imagine the majority of your bets are likely to be with these accounts, with less activity on your other accounts.

Sadly, the only effective and realistic way of transferring money from bookmaker to exchange/multi-platform is via matched betting. It’s a fairly easy procedure once you get your head around it, but like everything worthwhile having, it is a skill that needs to be learned.

I appreciate your apprehension, but can only say that you should never be afraid of learning new skills. There are plenty of sites on the Net which teach this skill. As ever, paper test it until you thoroughly understand the concept.

With matched betting, the trick is to understand how the market moves and to be able to anticipate odds movements. The aim is to make enough of an arbitrage to cover the exchange commission rate, so that no money is lost in the transaction. If using a multi-bookmaker platform such as Vodds, this is not an issue.

Of course, if you’re not fussy, or don’t have the time for precision, you can always decide to surrender a little profit, whichever side of the bet comes in.

Look for bets that have uneven chances – e.g. 40% (2.50 odds) – 60% (1.67 odds) and aim to place the smaller percentage bet with the bookmaker. Of course, not every bet will go your way – some back bets will ultimately win, and therefore increase your bookmaker balance rather than reducing it. But if you always aim to back the smaller percentage bet (not the smaller odds) with the bookie, then in the long-run you will end up transferring your balances.

If you aim to make arbitrage on every transaction through shrewd use of odds movements, then this pays for your time in performing the transactions.

For me, it’s a nice challenge – I enjoy doing it because at the end of the day it is purely a housekeeping exercise, which I receive a reward (the arbs) for performing. The frustration of seeing bookmaker balances build-up unintentionally is tempered by the fact that the bottom line is still increasing.

Do your matched betting in small chunks. Choose even-figured stakes with the bookie (i.e. a flat figure of say £100, rather than say £101.23). Do it only on the premier leagues in different countries. If you start using obscure fixtures for this exercise, you’ll get picked up quicker.

Lastly, try and get both sides of the bet placed before the event goes live. You really don’t want to be exposed in-play waiting for a price to drop before you place the second bet – Sod’s law always seems to operate when the game goes against you, and the price you are looking for slides further and further out of reach.

My advice is to attend to the matched betting side of the book-keeping once your campaign has finished. You’ll then hopefully have sufficient funds in exchange or multi-platform accounts to lever out the bookmaker account money. You don’t want to leave yourself short of funds during the campaign with money tied-up in non-portfolio bets.

I hope this all helps!

• simon
9 August 2017 at 12:26 pm #

RW,

Interestingly enough, although I do find Pinnacles odds to be streets ahead of most other bookmakers, they only seem to be bettered by one book – that’s Marathonbet when underdogs are concerned. So I find myself with most of my winnings now sitting in marathonbet, with vodds a close 2nd.

I think I will paper test the matched betting side of things and perhaps try and get a little bit out of marathon bet and into smarkets/vodds as I go along.

• Right Winger
9 August 2017 at 1:53 pm #

Hello again Simon,

I am assuming that you are accessing Pinnacle through Vodds?

Yes, both Pinnacle and Marathonbet are low margin bookmakers. In other words, they carry less overround than most bookies, a consequence of which, is higher prices to the customer (and higher popularity).

Their idea is to increase turnover in this fashion, which offsets the fact that their profit margins are smaller than most bookies.

Because they have to work harder for their money, their prices adjust far more often than other, higher overround bookies. The juggling act they have to perform to maintain a balanced portfolio is therefore more precise than others – it has to be.

But their strategy has to cap the prices on the underdogs – because of the reduced overround they don’t want a huge influx of money on the favourites. This is why you will often see Pinnacle and Marathonbet offering better prices than most on the underdog and the draw – they effectively lead with these prices and then dip in and out of the market with occasional best price on the favourites to maintain balance.

Good luck with the matched betting. I remember my first ever effort years ago. Instead of making a profit out of a free bet, I ended up with no profit at all on either side of the bet – a zero sum game! Sometimes, you have to learn the hard way! 🙂

27. timmyp
5 August 2017 at 5:07 pm #

hi RW

how are you doing at the start of this winter league? I’m struggling with results so far, and was just wondering if its the same for you.

28. Right Winger
5 August 2017 at 10:54 pm #

Hello again Tim,

Yes, sometimes the start of a campaign is a little slow going until all the leagues have commenced and the number of bets per week rises, especially if you are starting off your first campaign and don’t yet have the optimum level of synergy to benefit from.

But I would say that it is way too early to make a judgment on the Winter Leagues yet bearing in mind that most of them haven’t started. If you are worried at this stage of the season, I would suggest cutting back your stakes with a stop loss mechanism (as explained in this article) until things pick up again.

Or stopping altogether until all the big leagues join in next week. Paper test in the meantime.

I can’t comment on your personal situation as I am sure no two portfolios are alike, but from our perspective, we are running a large portfolio containing concurrent Summer and Winter Leagues, which is doing fine.

As I have said so many times before, portfolio betting is a numbers game – the larger your number of value bets in a round, the better the performance will be.

Tim, I hope this gives you the reassurance you were looking for. Keep reading all of the HDAFU Tables articles until you are totally sure you are doing the right thing. Keep an eye especially on the comments sections as these contain a lot of detail and tips not necessarily included in the articles.

Fingers crossed for you.

29. Simon
5 August 2017 at 11:38 pm #

TimmyP,

Just wanted to reply to you and give you a snipped of the experience I had had with the portfolio style of betting. Perhaps like yourself, this is my first time running this kind of thing, but so far results have been good for.

The first thing I would say is that I modelled my portfolio closely on the one that the article/workbook on this website described – as i wanted to get the balance right.

Of all the systems that I had selected, betting began with just 2 systems to begin with, Russian premier league (favorite) and Poland Ekstraklasa (Underdog). Then in the last 2 weeks Belgium, France ligue 1/2, Czech Liga and Portugal Primeira liga have joined in. There will be more systems coming live for me in the next 2 weeks also.

Out of respect for RW and soccer widow I won’t say exactly what the systems are so as to not give away content of the tables, but results for me have been positive. I’m only betting £50 per game since this my first time doing this.

In total since betting commenced I have placed 44 bets; 21 wins and 23 losses, 47.73% hit rate and £839.60 in profit. Yield is 38.16%

So for me, I feel I have done better than expected and things may slow down for me sometime soon.

For you, TimmyP, I hope things pick up as more leagues come in to play. I don’t suppose any of our portfolios will be the same, so it’s hard to directly compare results at any stage.

Anyway the point of this reply is to say that it seems possible to emulate RW and Soccerwidow’s very successful campaigns. Keep faith in your method and all the very best to you for the rest of the football season.

• Right Winger
5 August 2017 at 11:49 pm #

Simon,

That’s very kind of you to make the effort and spend your time encouraging Tim and others like him, no doubt.

Glad to hear things are going well for you. Don’t forget to put the brakes on with a stop loss when you hit the doldrums, and accelerate with a ratchet when you have a following wind!

All the best for now.

30. Dennis
10 August 2017 at 4:00 pm #

You had a 2000 € bankroll at a bet size of 100 playing 18 leagues/systems? So 5% stake per bet? Isn’t that to optimistic?

• Right Winger
10 August 2017 at 5:07 pm #

Hello Dennis,

I think the 2,000 unit starting bank figure you are referring to is from the staking plan simulation, which is part of the Winter League Campaign spreadsheet.

Please note that this part of the spreadsheet is only a simulation, and the 2,000 unit starting bank shown there is an arbitrary figure just to demonstrate the ratchet and stop-loss trigger points, and to introduce people to the subject of managing effective staking plans.

But, in any case, with our experience of running these systems and seeing losing streaks tempered by the ‘portfolio effect’, 5% is not an unreasonable sum, especially if you are prepared to reduce it or manage it with a stop loss mechanism if things do not go well initially.

If you do implement a stop loss strategy, then you must also use a ratchet when things are going well.

Our actual bank balance was in fact different to the simulation (it was whatever we had in our accounts at the time), but we would still use a virtual figure, in this case 2,000 units, on which to base our triggers. In other words, a benchmark for performance going forwards.

I hope this makes sense and thanks for your question.

31. Alex
10 August 2017 at 5:11 pm #

Hi,

Firstly I just want to say congratulations and thank you on publishing such great work! I’ve just started looking through my chosen leagues and have a few questions:

1. First things first – I don’t have the funds to purchase a significant amount of your workbooks just yet but from the few I have purchased I’ve chosen systems with either 4/5 or 5/5 profitable seasons. Until I can afford more how many systems would you say is the minimum to create a balanced portfolio?

2. In one of my systems (I won’t name which one) I’ve done some analysis and found a system that almost seems too good to be true. It’s a Back the Draw system in the first half of the season, and according to the Inflection Points graph the best system looks to be backing a draw in literally every single game in that league. Now, there is a little statistical noise in the middle but the profit at either end of that breakeven stretch looks to outweigh that small negative. Is backing the same result in every single match actually a viable strategy or should I try to hone it down (reducing the amount of bets but almost certainly reducing profitability?)

• Right Winger
10 August 2017 at 6:44 pm #

Hello Alex,

Yes, we have certainly used systems in the past that have employed all matches in a league during a season, but I would suggest analysing both halves of your profitable inflection points curve separately to find out if one is substantially better than the other.

Look separately at the five seasons’ results for both profitable portions of your curve. You may find one section is supported by an anomalous season, or is perhaps not in profit in a couple of seasons? Maybe both portions combine to give a good overall result, but with more depth to your analysis, you may see that one is actually supporting the other.

If there still isn’t much difference between the two after filtering our the statistical noice in-between, then perhaps it is worth going with all games.

But, we are looking for the synergy of the best individual systems we can find in each league rather than having competing systems in the same league. Taking all games will certainly cost you more time (to place the bets) and will ultimately reduce yield (as the final profit on the portfolio will be spread thinner over more bets). Pay attention to the estimated yield of your entire portfolio when making this decision. How is this figure affected by taking one of the profitable systems and not the other?

Your losing streaks may also be stretched a little in the wrong direction with more bets.

My advice would be to take the best portion of the curve only. It’s like saying in general that we like eating chicken, but instead of trying to eat a whole one and giving yourself indigestion, stick to the bit you enjoy most (the breast in my case, the legs in Soccerwidow’s case!).

Our usual advice applies to the size of portfolio: you’ll need one large enough to project an estimated minimum of 500 bets during the duration of your campaign. (The law of large numbers). But don’t use this as an excuse to extend a system to a whole league; you’ll get better results across the board by playing only the best portion of the curve in each league you run.

I hope this helps your thinking and thanks for the good questions!

• Alex
10 August 2017 at 10:46 pm #

Thank you for the detailed answer. I’ll definitely delve into that further tonight and come up with hopefully the best system.

Just one more quick question – Do you use the Backing By Team section to further refine your system? Sticking with my “Backing the Draw” example from above I can see that if I bet on a draw in every game over the last five seasons I’d be massively in profit, but delving into the team section I can see that certain teams aren’t profitable.

For example, let’s call them “Team A”. If we had backed a draw in every match in which Team A were the visiting side we would have lost over £1,000, with only one of the five seasons resulting in a profit. Do you further increase the ROI of your systems by excluding these proven unprofitable teams from the system?

• Alex
11 August 2017 at 12:53 am #

And one more question (sorry)

I remember you mentioning about clearly unprofitable systems representing good lay opportunities which obviously makes sense. My question is how you construct these Lay systems?

For example if you’re laying an outcome between inflection points of 1.45 and 1.68 do you alter your lay stake so that your liability is always constant. So a higher stake would be used on 1.45 odds than 1.68 to keep the liability constant?

• Right Winger
11 August 2017 at 1:10 am #

Alex,

Firstly, we don’t like ante post lay systems purely because with exchanges, the lay odds have to be above the back odds, and of course exchanges also charge commission.

Both of these elements combine to remove a lot of the value or ‘edge’ and make lay systems rather painful exercises.

You must also realise that laying is the bookmaker model when they offer back bets for sale.

When you understand that overrounds (the bookmakers’ profit margins) are relatively small (perhaps just 2% with the sharpest books such as Pinnacle), you will then realise that the profits to be had from ante post laying also have to be relative to these small percentages.

In our experience, ante post lay betting is only beneficial from an arbitrage perspective where profits are again very small, or to take advantage of bigger odds movements in-play.

We have tried many ante post lay systems over the years and it is soul-destroying when you hit a losing patch. It then takes many more winning bets to recover and get back into a stride. It’s usually a case of three steps forward and then two and-three-quarters back, sometimes more.

Matching the way the backing stakes are placed by having fixed-win/liability lay bets is a guarantee of a roller-coaster ride. It is also a real pain trying to apply ratchets and stop loss mechanisms to lay systems.

However, if this still hasn’t dissuaded you from looking at lay opportunities then just read the HDAFU tables’ results in reverse. Follow the instructions in the Notes Tab to set Odds Toggle and Commission Rate figures, and then look at the largest negative figures (treating them in your mind as positive ones). Reverse in your mind the winning and losing streaks too.

You may be able to find something too good to miss out on, but personally speaking, we stick to backing as it’s a far more consistent profit curve. Lay curves are more jagged with more pronounced statistical noise.

We’ve long battled with ourselves as to whether to show lay betting in the tables (we once did include them), but we have finally decided that if we’re not comfortable with it ourselves, then we won’t actively promote it to our customers.

I hope this explains.

• Right Winger
11 August 2017 at 12:55 am #

Hello again Alex,

The ‘Backing by Team’ tab is an old favourite of many people and we keep it in the tables for those who want to investigate portfolios of teams, rather than betting solely on odds.

But for the purposes of this article, yes, we do sometimes filter the data tab by teams (home and away) to see if there are any ‘usual suspects’ that constantly let the system down.

This is more likely in leagues that are dominated by just one or two teams, season in, season out.

Just filter out the teams and hide the relevant rows, before re-sorting back into chronological order and amending the formulas (as per the User Guide).

Another good point! You’re on the right track.

• Alex
11 August 2017 at 1:46 am #

Hi Right Winger,

Thanks for that, I’ll take your laying advice on board and stick to back bets for now at least!

Good idea on the filtering out teams on the Data tab, I was just thinking of using the Team tab and excluding those teams out of my bets but your way means I can directly compare the Yield and ROI for systems with and without said teams. Seems I’ve got a lot of research to do tomorrow!

By the way, regarding my earlier post about the system betting on every match – You were right. I filtered and compared the two sides of the statistical noise and found one system that smashes the other out of the water! A yield of almost 50% (compared to 30% for the system before the noise and 25% for backing a draw in all games.) Not to mention the fact that 5/5 seasons are profitable. Overall, the system I have chosen to go for yields an average £3000 profit per season in just 61 average bets, compared to £3900 profit on average over 156 bets if betting on every game!

32. AM0751
12 August 2017 at 9:35 am #

Hi Right Winger,

Of course, the same numbers can’t be applied as for the whole portfolio when it comes to trigger points, as the numbers will be effectively split in

Is there any way to determine an individual ratchet/stop-loss system for each system in the portfolio, or could you give me some suggestions?

Maybe a relation with LLS, or average expected bets per round?

I am very keen to hear your thoughts on this.

• Right Winger
13 August 2017 at 10:19 am #

Hello AM0751,

Of course it is possible to run each system separately within the portfolio, but our leaning now is probably towards ratchet and stop-loss triggers applied to the portfolio as a whole. (Contrary to my thoughts in the comment above to Jo on 27th June, 7.45pm).

The synergy of the whole is what makes things happen, and this is what you should trade on to maximise profits.

It starts to become quite complicated managing each system according to its own merits; it will certainly cost more time calculating what the situation is after each round of matches, and also when having to think about and place bets with different stakes.

If the money is already in the bank, then increase stakes across the board. Micro-managing interferes with the synergy of the portfolio approach.

Looking more in-depth at the 2016 and 2016-17 campaigns, expanding upon the calculations, and thinking the thing through, we have decided that keeping it simple is the better approach. Manage the portfolio as a whole. The detrimental effect of losing rounds (stop loss incidence) will be tempered more by the benefits of greater leaps forward if ratchet triggers are based on total profits.

I hope this is clear and thanks for your valuable contribution.

33. Corner
17 August 2017 at 9:10 pm #

Hello Right Winger,

i did a lot of research and paper trading to get familiar with the HDAFU Tables.
My biggest problem at the moment is to identify false odds at oddsportal.
If you have a big gap between the upper and lower inflection point there is no problem.

But if there is a small gap, two things can happen.

You bet on the wrong games or you miss the right ones.

I give you two examples:

Russian Premier League:
09.08.2017 FK Rostov – Dynamo Moscow 1:0

Highest odds for home win: 2.2 (Tipico). The payout is 104 %. The timestamp shows (opening odds)

If the upper inflection point would be at 2.16 you don´t bet on the game when you trust oddsportal. The majority of all bookmakers are under 2.0 for the home win.
My interpretation: False odds.The right decision is to bet on the game. Pinnacle is at 1.98. It was a winner.

Czech 1.Liga:
13. August 2017 16:00 Teplice – Jablonec 1:1
Highest odds for a draw: 3.75 (bet365). The payout is 100,8%. The majority of all bookmakers are under 3.6 for a draw.

If your lower inflection point is above 3.65 you would bet on this game. I use a multibookmaker platform like vodds. The highest odds for a draw at kickoff was 3.59.

My interpretation: False odds. I guess i was wrong here. The Payout is 100,8 %, looks Ok and the time stamp from bet365 shows the last change 15 minutes before the kick off. The price was not available on my multibookmaker platform with Pinnacle and Betfair. I thought this game has false odds. I missed a game which was a winner ?

You wrote an article “How to find false odds at oddsportal”. The examples are very obivious. A Game with a payout above 140 % payout.
I bought the the english premier league HDAFU Table. I found no payout above 101 %.
When i check the odds at oddsportal i find games with higher payout for the english premier league. It must take you hours to correct all the odds above 101 % payout.

My questions:
Is a game with more than 101 % payout a game with potential false odds?
Can Betfair without commission be an indicator to check if the highest oddsportal odds are Ok ?
Can you give me some hints what you do to check if the game has false odds when it´s not so obvious?

• Right Winger
21 August 2017 at 5:13 pm #

Hi Corner,

Wow! Just a few questions there – you’ll have to forgive me if my answers are short and sweet…

1) Yes, it does take hours to manually correct odds in connection with our products. We have to do it simply because there is no reliable benchmark source of odds available (free or paid) anywhere in the Net.

2) You will find it difficult to find arbitrage on any 1X2 set of odds (i.e. payout above 100%) in the final few minutes before kick-off, but don’t confuse positive payout (underround) with overround – they are exact opposites.

3) The vast majority of games in the final moments before kick-off will therefore have a payout less than 100%. You should check anything with 100% payout or over before committing to the bet. This should be quite obvious on Oddsportal by looking at the time stamps of the offending prices.

4) Don’t forget that the vast majority of your bets will probably be safely inside the inflection points. It is probably better not to worry about boderline decisions as they will only cost you time.

If you are still unsure then make a rule for yourself. If it’s a favourite or a home win and the price is questionable (i.e. is it in or outside the lower inflection point), make a decision to treat all such imposters in the same fashion. In other words, include them all, or exclude them all. It won’t make much difference to your bottom line. It’s only when you include some and exclude others that you create an imbalance not only in the possible results, but also in your own mind as to whether you are doing the right thing or not.

If it’s a draw, an underdog or an away win, I would probably err on the side of caution and decide not to include them if they are on the upper inflection point.

5) Regarding small gaps between the inflection points, I’m not sure how small the gaps are you are referring to, but have a look at the Summer and Winter League campaign workbooks to see the gaps we had in each system we chose.

6) Don’t forget that the results of both campaigns, although pretty good, were not always based on best price in the market at the time of bet placement. In fact, the majority of bets were placed at prices below the peak price, simply because we didn’t have access to the best price.

If you are in further doubt, use the best price available to you as the benchmark. Again, in the majority of cases, it will fall comfortably between your two inflection points. Just make a rule and stick to it for the borderline cases. Concentrate on the big picture first, and attend to the details if you have the time.

7) In your Oddsportal account settings, you can set a commission rate for Betfair and also choose whether or not to show Betfair odds net of the commission payable. This may provide you with the indicator you are looking for. Otherwise, it’s a case of checking the bookmaker odds for accuracy.

34. Alex
18 August 2017 at 12:39 pm #

Hi again Right Winger,

Just a question regarding the timing of bets. Obviously it’s important to wait until the hour before kickoff for those bets that are close to the inflection points, but how important is it to keep this timing for the bets that are obviously going to land between our points. For example, if I have inflection points of 1.6-2.5 and there’s a bet tomorrow priced at 2.1 is it okay to place your bets early on that?

Thanks!

• Right Winger
21 August 2017 at 5:21 pm #

Hi Alex,

We regularly do place some bets well in advance if we have an inkling that the price is going to drop the nearer to kick-off it gets (usually favourites or home wins).

However, if the price drifts beyond the lower inflection point, we will lay it back for an arbitrage profit.

As I’ve said to others before in these comments sections, start looking at odds movements in Oddsportal from the opening of the market right up until the close (check the time stamps). You will then hopefully get a good idea how the market operates (leagues differ according to their popularity/liquidity), and identify the different strategies employed by the bookmakers to obtain their share of the market on an event.

Once you have that knowledge, you can anticipate with a deal of accuracy how the market is going to move, and make your bet decision based on the best/most profitable times to place bets.

Remember, the HDAFU tables provide a benchmark for the close of the ante post market. You only need this one reliable benchmark during ante post to make the most profitable bet placement decisions if you can afford to put the work/time in observing and teaching yourself about the market dynamics.

I hope this helps.

35. Michael
21 August 2017 at 8:36 am #

Are Belgian draws killing anyone else?

• Corner
22 August 2017 at 11:39 pm #

The loosing streak is painful indeed. Only 15,6 % draws so far. 24,6% was the average in the last five years.

36. AM0751
21 August 2017 at 10:47 am #

Hi right winger,

I still have a couple of questions, I hope you can shed some light on them.

1. I started some first half seasons when they were already in play. I left some profit on the table (I calculated back), but I also calculated the projected profit and there was enough still on the table to make it worth my while. So I went ahead and started placing bets on these leagues. Was this a mistake?

2. Reason I am asking this is because well, I am executing operation nosedive over the last two weekends. Don’ get me wrong,this is all 100% my own choice, so I am not having a dig, but maybe you could acknowledge the last two weekends were not the greatest? I have reason to believe I am not far off the systems that you yourself use. Any perceptive person could reach this conclusion, and I am sure you know what I mean by that comment. It would help me to have my soul a bit less destroyed maybe. And if you have a totally different experience, well, that would mean I am doing something completely wrong.

3. Now to something more concrete. I have read and appplied your comments about the two russian bookies. However, I had a situation yesterday where the Roma away game was between my two inflection points with every bookie except one, Tempobet.
I checked their website and indeed Odds Portal was showing the right info. So I didn;t play this game due to the fact that one bookie offered this game outside my inflecton points. Was I right in doing that?

I hope you can take the time to address this post, I would very much appreciate it!

• Right Winger
21 August 2017 at 5:34 pm #

Hello again AM0751,

I think I’ve gone some way to answering your questions in mine below (21/08/2017 3.58pm) and above (21/08/2017 5.13pm and 5.21pm).

Tempobet is a funny one. Difficult to get an account with and sometimes offering odds well above anyone else. Sometimes, you find the odds shown on Oddsportal are available, and sometimes they most definitely are not. The API connection Oddsportal has with Tempobet is definitely unreliable.

We do not have an account with Tempobet and tend to discard their results from our thinking. From what you have said, I think the answer from our perspective would have been to ignore Tempobet and place the bet.

As I have said before in reply to other contributors, if in doubt, go with the majority viewpoint. Outlier prices are usually offered to gain market share and don’t necessarily reflect what is going on with the market in general.

37. Simon
21 August 2017 at 1:47 pm #

AM0571

I am happy to share my feedback and experience of how the last 6 Gameweeks have gone for me.

To simplify things, whatever I bet per game I will call 1 unit. My unit amount is £50. So after 4 Gameweeks, with 8 systems in flow at that point, things were going great, with 23.72 units of profit/£1186 in the bank. Weeks 5 and 6 have been awful for me, losing approx. 6 units in week 5 and approx. 12 units in week 5. I’m now sitting back at 6 units of profit/£300.

The systems I started out with initially, Poland Underdog, Russian Favourite, French Ligue 1 favourite, French Ligue 2 Draw, Czech republic Draw, Portugal Underdog, all started out winning. Last weekend Netherlands Draw joined the fray and has been poor performing on both weeks 5 and 6. Turkey Favourite started poorly on week 5. Both Spain and Germany started out poorly this weekend, as did Italy Favourite. Some other systems have suffered small losses or breaking even.

So, the latest systems joining the action all have started poorly and thus combined to bring down the profits gained by the other systems.

It certainly was a humbling experience to see such a big profit reduction so quickly. So I can relate to your experience to a degree. On the plus side I haven’t lost money yet, but can confirm that the last 2 weeks have not been great for me personally. However, I’m looking at things from the point of view that these slow starting systems can recover, and that will lead to a spike in the profits.

I never thought that all the systems would have performed brilliantly right off the bat – that would be unrealistice. I was hoping that after getting up to just under 24 units of profit there would be a period of consolidation where I was breaking even, but I had a good period immediately followed by a bad one. None of us know how the results will line up or what the future holds. So for me it is a case of trusting the data, trusting my analysis of it, and hoping in the long run, with sound money management and patience profits will build up again!

• Right Winger
21 August 2017 at 3:58 pm #

In response to Michael, AM0751 and Simon (all 21/08/2017 above),

Firstly, because we (Soccerwidow.com) are running Summer and Winter League portfolios concurrently, our overall results have not been hugely curtailed by the start to the 2017-18 Winter League seasons, although I agree with some of the detrimental experiences you have highlighted above.

I think the ‘new starters’ dilemma can be summed up with an analogy. The football betting calendar year is like a fast-moving conveyor belt. Once you are on it, you are swept away until you decide you’ve had enough. Getting off is easy enough – you just stop betting.

But like anything continuously in motion, if you’ve never been on the ride before (i.e. portfolio betting), it is likely that you will stumble getting on it at first. You have to get on somewhere, but there are no hints with statistics to tell you when the best moment arrives.

Calculating winning streaks and losing streaks is all good and well, but there is no way of knowing when they will arrive. If you get on the conveyor in the middle of a losing streak, then I’m afraid it is hard lines, but if your portfolio is large enough and has a balanced risk profile, you will recover over time and begin to pick up.

The unpredictable starts to some seasons is a subject already covered in the blog. You may wish to refresh your memories for a little reassurance that things will settle down and follow statistical patterns eventually. Read also the Goal Distribution article, if you haven’t already done so.

The key to portfolio betting is to keep the rhythm going – try and bet all year round so that there is no time gap in your portfolio. The numbers will eventually support themselves as you begin to mix Summer and Winter Leagues in the same round of matches.

A larger portfolio will also provide you with better financial control – Employ the ratchet and stop loss mechanisms to the portfolio as a whole.

Alternatively, get on the conveyor belt with a set target in mind. Stop betting when you have achieved it. Start afresh when you are ready. Treat every new target as a separate ‘campaign’, but expect the possibility of stumbling at the beginning of each. Building anything up from nothing is never plain sailing at the start. (I can’t begin to tell you how hard it was for me to build-up an insurance brokerage from scratch, single-handedly in the 1990’s).

And don’t worry about a rocky ride to the start of a season in some leagues. The statistics will even themselves out. As per the Winter League Campaign article above, the final result should resemble a Poisson distribution curve – the two extremities of the curve will contain a few systems which fail (at the negative end), some that will surpass expectations (at the positive end), whilst the rest (the majority) will be in the big bulge in the middle.

Both patience and nerve are virtues in gambling. If you have ‘value’ on your side (i.e. betting above the zero odds every time), then you will make money in the long run. It’s obvious.

38. AM0751
21 August 2017 at 4:33 pm #

Hi right winger, Michael and Simon,

Thank you for your feedback, your words acknowledge that I am indeed not crazy, I am just experiencing a dip. I iwll keep plugging away.

Right winger, just adding, because I think you missed point 3 in my previous post, did I handle this case correctly>

Cheers!

39. Timmyp
25 August 2017 at 9:21 pm #

@simon

I am doing the same as you as well as other leagues too. I was up 3 points in week 1 and it has been downhill since. Up until tonight I was about 7 points down on a rollercoaster and tonight has been terrible with another 7 points lost. I started with a 30 point bank and could go below 50% with a bad day tomorrow.
The graphs look good with the inflection points chosen and I am wondering if anyone is actually up so far in what seems a horrible start to the winter leagues.

• Right Winger
25 August 2017 at 10:19 pm #

AM0751 & Timmyp,

I hope you are both employing a stop loss mechanism suitable to your levels of stakes as per the explanation on page 4 of this article?

Remember, you must protect what you have when the troughs arrive.

Just a thought.

• Daniel
26 August 2017 at 2:34 pm #

Hello Timmy,

just want to share with you my results so far.

I started with a 11000 euro bank and 300 stakes. I am 9685 euro in profit at the end of week 6 with week 7 in progress as we speak.

Week 1: 9 bets, 15 euro profit
Week 2: 21 bets, 2865 euro profit
Week 3: 23 bets, 3579 euro profit
Week 4: 36 bets, 3571 euro profit
Week 5: 50 bets, 2491 euro profit
Week 6: 68 bets, -2836 euro loss

Week 6 was a very bad and unlucky week with many games lost in the final minutes, but that is part of the game so no complains so far for a system that is giving me huge profits in little more than a month.

I am also using the stop-loss strategy explained by Right Winger and my current bet size is 330 euro for Week 7.

And a big thanks to Right Winger and Soccerwidow for the invaluable knowledge they have taught me through this website.

40. AM0751
27 August 2017 at 8:41 am #

Hi right winger,
;-
I am indeed employing a stop loss. And I guess I am learning as I go along, hence the following:

My question is as follows: you have mentioned several times that there are some problematic bookies, namely Marathonbet, 1XBET and Tempobet.

You mentioned that as they are high turnover, low margin bookies, and that their odds tend to change fast. But this goes for more bookies, like Island Casino or 5Dimes (or Pinnacle of course!), yet you never mentioned you excluded these from your analysis when collecting highest odds.

Can you explain to me what the difference is?

Reason I am asking is in your winter campaign spreadsheet, I see sometimes you *do* include Marathonbet pricing (with both winning and losing games, so this is not some thinly veiled accusation, just an observation).

Is it purely a timestamp issue that makes you adjust for the highest odds in your HDAFU tables?

• Right Winger
27 August 2017 at 1:39 pm #

Hi AM0751,

Yes, Oddsportal’s API’s are unreliable and/or slow in updating where Marathonbet, 1xbet and Tempobet are concerned.

Tempobet, for example, will show best odds on many occasions, usually on the home team, but these odds will sometimes be days old; occasionally they are as little as 45 minutes old, but never close to being ante post market closing odds.

Consequently, being so far above the rest of the market, these odds stick out like a sore thumb and are an unreliable benchmark. If they were true, everyone would be betting on them (especially traders and arbitrageurs), and they would have a hard job balancing their accounts. I’ve checked Tempobet’s sites (they have several in different languages) against Oddsportal’s odds prior to kick-off, and there are sometimes marked differences between the different Tempobet sites at the same moment in time.

So, in answer to your question, it is most definitely a time stamp issue, which is why you will sometimes find Marathonbet’s odds included in the analyses. Their odds are sometimes best in the market (just slightly ahead of their rivals and obtainable), within a minute or so of kick-off.

As I’ve mentioned before, use the majority opinion (i.e. what the rest of the bookmakers indicate), rather than the guidance of one or two outliers, in order to form your bet placement decisions.

I agree that the process may seem a little awkward at first, and it would certainly not be an issue if we could select/deselect bookmakers from Oddsportal’s compulsory list, but with time you will get used to it.

• simon
27 August 2017 at 1:41 pm #

AM0751,

I may be able to answer your question. It was my understanding at the time, and have since seen this consistently myself at odds portal, that with Marathonbet, they are in nearly all cases, especially with underdog bets, offering considerably higher odds than the rest of the market. On that note I remember RW saying for that reason, Marathonbet odds had been discarded/downgraded. That would then give a set of highest odds that were reflective of the market.

So this in turn has a bearing on the actual bet placement itself. For example if you have inflection points of 3.5 and 4.5 and every single book maker is within that range apart from marathon bet, then it is a valid selection, since the market agrees. So place the bet. Of course, for the purposes of taking the best odds, the bet can be placed with marathon bet. That would explain why you see marathon bet prices in the winter campaign sheet.

On the other hand, again with inflection point of 3.5 and 4.5, if all the bookmakers are say at 3.3 or lower and marathon bet is at 3.6, this is not a valid selection and should not be bet on.

Thats how I understand it with marathon bet specifically – its an issue with there odds being higher in lots of cases than the general market and so not a reflection of that market. I didn’t think it to be due to an issue with time stamps for marathon bet.

I have seen many instances, however, where books on odds portal have odds that seem very high in relation to the market average. And when I check these odds for accuracy at the bookmaker website itself, I find the odds do not exist anymore. I find this to be the case a LOT with Tempobet. Other books I have seen this happen with are Betolimp. There are other cases with other bookmakers but less frequently so.

What I do in these cases, where the odds seem so out to step from the rest of the market is check the website itself to see what the current odds are. I would suspect, and RW could confirm this, those odds that are out of step with reality, such as Templet odds, are the ones corrected by looking at timestamps. With Marathon bet, I’m sure thats not a timestamp issue.

Hope thats helpful. And RW will correct me if I’m wrong!

• Daniel
28 August 2017 at 8:12 pm #

Hi AM0751,

i will share with you my experiences with Oddsportal and the APIs so far.

I have encountered many times unreliable odds in my selections (old timestamps). Usually what i do is open the website and check the real odds for that particular event. If i cannot do so (because of geographic or IP restrictions) i generally tend to discard them from the analysis and move to the second best, as long as they are reliable. I don’t discard any bookmaker solely based on the name. For example, i never ignore Marathonbet odds if the timestamp is recent and the odds are accurate. Honestly it is a very simple and straight forward process for me. If the top odds fit in, and are authentic, i bet. If not, i don’t. Regardless of which bookmakers are they from (from the list of bookmakers shared by Right Winger), if the timestamp is recent and the odd is accurate i use that value. I also never place a bet more than 15 minutes before kick off, except if i notice that a particular odd is falling constantly but still in the range by far.

Hope this helps!

41. timmyp
28 August 2017 at 2:07 pm #

hi

Points H/R % Exp H/R %
Austria -1.55 21.43% 27.08%
Belgium -0.56 40.00% 53.05%
Czech -2.50 20.00% 32.79%
Denmark -7.64 18.75% 38.95%
England -6.00 0.00% 17.83%
France 1 5.36 57.14% 49.01%
France 2 -10.82 15.00% 37.00%
Germany 4.85 36.36% 27.02%
Greece -2.24 40.00% 62.53%
Italy -3.00 0.00% 51.40%
Netherlands -4.40 11.11% 28.35%
Poland 4.00 21.05% 27.32%
Russia 0.33 55.56% 61.88%
Scotland 2.71 58.33% 53.10%
Spain 3.25 40.00% 32.84%
Switzerland -4.00 33.33% 53.17%
Turkey 1.29 50.00% 48.48%

(H/R=Hit rate)

As shown above, Denmark, England and France 2 are letting me down badly which account for just over 24 points down.Only 7 out of 17 in credit at the moment and I’m 21 points down in total. Most systems are just 1 or 2 results away from being in profit in these early days.

I know everyone will have different inflection points but I would imagine the systems chosen will be mostly similar. Anyone having similar issues with a some of their choices?

• Daniel
28 August 2017 at 7:58 pm #

Hi timmyp,

the last two weeks have been quite disappointing in almost everything, with most of the best looking systems having long series of losses. Ligue 2 was very bad with draws (only one draw in two weeks), same as Netherlands, a very promising system with a very bad start that hopefully will recover on the way. Austria, same story, very promising yet disappointing so far. Poland, started with huge profits, now facing a very long negative streak. England bad start as well, with my underdogs struggling greatly, with 1 on 12 bets won. Bad first week in Italy as well, with many favourites losing their games. Slightly recovered on the last week. So far i have been on a loss for this and the last week, losing a chunk of the profits i made previously. On the 18th of August my profits touched the 14,000 euro mark. I am now sitting on little more than 9,000 profit after this very bad betting weeks. Thanks to the stop loss strategy i saved a portion of my profit and i could still endure more weeks of bad “luck” (i hope it will not be the case though). Yesterday 7 out of 10 of my last bets won, showing maybe an end to this catastrophic negative period.
My confidence in the system i chose never wavered not even for one second, even on the thoughest losing streaks. I did my homeworks before investing the money, i fully understood the concept behind it and i am now fully prepared to enjoy the final outcome tham i am sure will be worth all the emotional rollercoaster. I am sure that if you chose the right system with the right balance, and invested a sufficient amount of money in the strategy, nothing can go wrong. In the long run, the math will take over, so don’t worry.
By the way, my current hit rate is 31.79% versus a forecasted hit rate of 38.48%. Not amazing, but the sinergy is doing a perfect job on keep the system strong.
Stay positive and confident, and good luck for your season!

• ace
21 September 2017 at 8:09 am #

Similar experiences here, plus another three weeks where one round broke even and two lost heavily. I’m starting to bother a little bit though I know a lot about variances from playing poker and backgammon, My summer leagues portfolio went pretty well until summer but is also going down slightly for the last four weeks.

I made some stats with the odds, just comparing expected nominell hit rate (converting odds into probability) with current hit rate. It looks like all bets from 1.6 – 2.2 are running as expected, 2.21 – 2.4 is way below average, 2.61 – 3.00 is avg., 3.01 – 3.60 again ways below avg. 3.61 – 5.00 is avg. again, and all above 5.01 is running badly.

This fits to the current statistics of several leagues, France 2 probably with a historical low draw rate and some other leagues also with a very bumpy start in the first 5 to 8 rounds.

In the summer league portfolio I’m suffering from Norway and Brasil which is not unexpected if you carefully read the article from Right Winger regarding last years results.

• Simon
21 September 2017 at 12:28 pm #

For me, after a cracking start, and very healthy profits (23 points) after 4 weeks, I have had 5 straight losing weeks, where almost every betting day has been losing or break even at best. So, to not have had a winning day in 5 weeks is very tough on the patience and morale….and now I’m running at a loss of about 6 points of profit, with 2 games pending this evening.

The France Ligue 2 draw system is performing terribly right now, with 13 straight losses in the odds range I have chosen. That losing streak is higher than the longest losing streak occurring over the last 5 years.

In addition to that, the Netherlands draw system has seen 2 draws for me in 17 games.

Those 2 systems added together account for where most of my losses have come from.

To date I hadn’t been increasing stakes when winning, or reducing them whilst in the losing streaks. The reason being this is the first time that I have run a portfolio and wanted to keep things simple, plus a flat staking strategy should be fine given the evidence at hand to show the betting strategy is sound and profitable.

I think now after these 5 losing weeks, it would be stupid not to cut back the stakes a little at least until this method shows me it can win again. So I think I will just use Zero profit/loss as my trigger point and then reduce stakes by the 5% chunks based on what I actually am in deficit this week, then proceed from there.

This is certainly a test of discipline, patience and resolve…but I will plug away and see what happens!

• jo
21 September 2017 at 3:59 pm #

Hi Simon,

I checked my Summer campaign and it was not an easy ride either. It was a bumpy ride from the start. Balance was in little profit and loss twice for about 2 weeks each period, 2 months in total. And then the “fifth” period had negative balance for 6 weeks – I was going down for 3 weeks and it took next 3 weeks to return from -1000 to positive balance again. Since then the curve rose pretty steeply with brief struggles and I didn’t have negative balance since the start of June. Before that, my strategy struggled for 3,5 months. The portfolio balance is not the best – most of strategies are medium risk, but there is not much of a season left and it should still make some money.
My Winter league campaign has a better risk balance, but its obvious, me and some of us will need patience again. My highest balance was 3660 units. I lost 4000 units since. But when I think about frustrating time with winter leagues, I ask myself one question: had my balance been 10000, 20000 before i lost those 4000, would I worry about it? And the answer is no. So I’m not worried there is something wrong with my strategy, because there isn’t, the only thing that is annoying is those 2 months so far were a waste of time regarding profitability, but from the other side, I gained some experience and this is good.

• Simon
24 September 2017 at 10:43 pm #

Jo,

Just following up on your last reply now that this round of games is almost over. I have to say that right now I’m feeling very disheartened with the way things are going – bearing in mind this is the first time I have run something as detailed and complex as a portfolio style of betting – and not for the want of trying. I have been diligent with bet placement and making sure I take only bets that fit that system, and that qualifying bets are not missed. So at my end I am doing everything in my power to make this a success. Sadly, results are not just going my way.

At the end of week 4, I had accrued 23.72 points of profit. But from that point on I have suffered 6 straight losing weeks and now am running at a loss of 17.63 points. That’s a swing of just over 40 points – pretty hefty and crushing loss.

So yes, at this point I am feeling quite soul destroyed, as what started out so promisingly has fast become something to be concerned about in terms of its actual profitability. Will it actually make a profit?!

As mentioned previously I have 23 systems overall, 13 systems running now; 4 of which are whole season, and 9 half season. 5 of the 13 are making a small profit. 1 is making a very good profit – Poland underdog system. Yet the remaining 6 are losing, and losing heavily.

Netherlands draw system is running at 2 wins out of 22 (9% hit rate) for a loss of 11 points. Projected hit rate is 27.5%

Spain underdog system is running at 4 wins from 27 (14.8% hit rate) for a loss of 10.5 points. Projected hit rate is 27.66%

France Ligue 2 draw system is running at 7 wins from 32 (21.88% hit rate for a loss of 10.5 points. Projected hit rate is 39.42%

Turkey favourite system is also running at a loss, 7 wins from 21 for 33.33%, and a loss of 6 points. Projected hit rate is 49.16%

Another couple are running at minor losses.

So, all in all, I am seeing 3 systems that have raked in profits over the last 5 years that are all failing big time early on, which is decimating the overall picture.

Initially, my view was to just bet 1% (1 point) which to me is £50, and not adjust it up or down. The reason being that a solid betting strategy should succeed by betting flat stakes and not become a loser if a stop loss or ratchet isn’t employed. I understand that by not using a ratchet I may not make as much profit, but for this being my first time at this, I want to just keep everything as simple as possible.

The thing is though, the option is there to throw in the towel and cut my losses. The determined part of me wants to plug away at it. It would be awful if I threw in the towel only to go on a winning streak over many weeks. However, I’m confused as to whether I should now cut back on the stakes a bit, or stick at the current level. If I recalculated on 1% of bankroll for each stake I would be betting £40 (rounded down a touch) rather than £50. I did run a simulation (on a sheet I made myself) to see where my stakes would be had I employed a stop loss, and although it makes little difference to the amount lost in total, the stakes should now be around £40.

The thing is, I think to myself, 6 losing weeks in a row, surely a winning week is around the corner?! Can things get any worse than the measly 25% hit rate for the portfolio over the last 2 weeks?! It could of course be the case that the losing streak continues, and betting smaller stakes would keep me in the game longer. But….and it’s a big but, the longer the losing streak goes on for, the less time each system has to recover, as time is ticking away in terms of the winter break being the cut off for the 1st half systems. And also, if I cut back stakes, then it takes me longer to make back the losses.

Anyway, sorry for rambling on, but my conviction with staying the course is wavering a little and as such am in a quandary as how to best proceed!

Any advice on moving forward would be greatly appreciated! Thanks

• Daniel
25 September 2017 at 6:35 am #

Hi Simon,

i am in a position similar to yours. I had an amazing profit in the first month of the system, after which everything started to collapse, and i went negative. I stopped the system at a 10 unit loss, and i will tell you why. I tried to analyze what was going bad with the actual system. Infact, it was not a matter of “waiting the next good run” anymore because the swings caused by this negative weeks were far too big to be considered healty and normal. So from my point of view, the system have already failed. One thing i know is i cant doubt of the attendibility of the tables. And i can blame the leagues for showing an incredible amount of deviation from the mean. But then i realized one important thing. The balance of my portfolio was off. I was realizing all my losses are coming from medium and higher systems. I realized that i don’t have enough low risk systems to fight the losing streaks that are killing me. I have to depend on this kind of odds to survive and that is just not healty. So i took a step back, unplugged the faulty system and i am currently working on my 2.0 portfolio, implementing all that i have already experienced on my skin. Now i am building my portfoliolio around the best low risk system i can find, and not the other way around. I understand the concept of balancing the portfolio a bit better and now i can really feel the imbalance from the systems. When i will finish my new portfolio (hopefully before the start of the next betting week) i will take it from there. All this to say, sometimes is good to take a step back and try to improve what is causing you problems. If a portfolio is suffering from medium/high odds negative streaks, counter-balancing it with more low risk system can save your profits.
Good luck and stay positive!

25 September 2017 at 10:17 am #

Sad to report same here… I had an incredibly, incredibly disappointing week, with absolutely all of my 12 systems accumulating heavy losses. All in all, I lost more than 20 stakes (points) last week! All my winnings from the previous two successful weeks are out of the window. This is very dishearting and perhaps someone can shed some light on why this can be happening. I have almost 10% lower overall hitrate than the projected one (29 vs 38 percent) and cannot endure another destructive week like the last one. How is it even possible that all of the systems enter prolonged losing streaks at the same time???

42. Simon
10 September 2017 at 10:35 pm #

Hi All,

Some feedback on my experience thus far. My portfolio consists of 22 systems; 4 of which are whole season, and 18 1st half/2nd half. This means I have 13 systems currently in play.

The campaign started well enough and after 4 complete game weeks my profit sat at 23.72 points. Since then it has declined such that it now sits at 3.22 points. There may be another couple of games to bet tomorrow, so that figure may change slightly up or down.

Looking at the systems:

Whole Season: Expected/Actual Hit rate (%) Profit/Loss (points)

Belgium – Home win: 54.97/42.86 -0.46
France Ligue 2: Draw: 39.42/29.43 -5.51
Portugal – Underdog 28.85/42.86 +2.68
Turkey – Favourite: 49.16/35.29 -3.91

1st Half:

England – Draw: 41.13/33.33 +0.55
Czech Republic – Draw: 39.57/30 +1.49
France Ligue 1 – Favourite: 53.46/48 +1.325
Germany – Underdog: 30.71/35 +10.59
Italy – Favourite: 61.67/63.64 +1.66
Netherlands – Draw: 27.51/5.56 -13.45
Poland – Underdog: 29.35/25 +10.35
Russia – Favourite: 61.9/54.55 +0.375
Spain – Underdog: 27.66/20 -2.47

Well, as you can see from the above I have some good performers, some break even performers, small and medium losers (France Ligue 2, Turkey)….and then…..one system that is single handedly wrecking the joint….Netherlands draw system, clicking at just over 5.5% and making a monumental dent in my profits. Part of me wants to just drop that system and move on, but….it’s early days and I’m telling myself, “Surely it must recover from such a low hit rate?!”. In other words, I will trust the analysis and hope for a recovery from that system in the coming weeks. It seems like the top 6-8 teams in the Eridivisie have come out on fire to start the season and are winning every game resulting in very few draws in my odds range.

The expected hit rate for the portfolio as a whole is 44.17%, while the actual hit rate is 34.75%. So 9% under expectations. The last 4 weeks has seen a hit rate of just 30.42%. So really I feel like being in a slump at the moment.

I have flat bet everything for 1 point to date. But also have run the same results through the ratchet/stop loss comparison, and the difference between the profit and loss figures is very small – so wouldn’t have helped me out much. Although next week I may actually lower stakes in line with the comparison just in case another bad week is ahead!

So overall, I am disappointed to have seen my profits pretty much set back to zero, but, after such a poor 4 weeks (which have been pretty horrendous), and to still not have lost any of my initial bankroll, I like to feel that an upturn is not far away and things shall improve….optimism…..we shall see.

Good luck everyone!

43. jo
11 September 2017 at 1:04 am #

Hi Simon,

if you bought winter league campaign you can see that the last 4 weeks were losing weeks. And they can happen at any time, right from the start. Nothing uncommon with your campaign:). In Eredivisie I won 1 bet out of 18 and have similar results to yours. But a high odds win is just a matter of time, just make sure not to miss any bet.
To me it’s also sad, since sometimes I found myself thinking, these 8 and now 9 weeks were waste of time because profits dropped to almost 0, but there is not much we can do. Just keep going and as Right Winger said, statistics will not line up in a nice pattern.
In my Summer league campaign I decided to quit betting 1st half of one league since the strategy also performed poorly – 27% actual hit rate vs 59% predicted average and unpleasantly negative balance after 22 bets. I read about it here that you must continue to the end, however, I decided to quit. I kept simulation betting from 23rd bet and I had a winning streak of 6 bets right after that! I didn’t like to see the strategy failing with real money and then I was getting increasingly frustrated with each winning simulation bet! In the end, the system failed anyway, with a little bit smaller loss than I stopped, so, I didn’t care, but I don’t think I will ever quit any strategy before its finish date. It was a good lesson and emotional roller-coaster.

44. Simon
11 September 2017 at 1:08 pm #

Jo,

Thanks for the response.

You are right with your comments. It is a shame to see profits dwindle away, but for me its just 230 bets approx. into a 1300 projected bets campaign. So plenty of time for results to swing my way.

I had a look at how the picture would be different if just a couple of draws in the Netherlands system had hit, and the picture is so much better. If an extra win in each of the other underperforming systems had hit, things would be looking very healthy indeed.

So after 4 weeks of poor results, I’m hoping this week sees a change in the pattern and some good results come in and things really start to take off.

I noticed through reading the £20k campaign of RW/SW that they got off to a flying start and then from halfway through to the end, it was a lot of treading water. By halfway through their campaign they had made more than £20k.

So perhaps for us we will have a volatile start that gets better in the middle phase of the campaign. Time will tell.

But for me, it really is a test of patience and nerve, and trust the stats for the long term!

45. Olly
11 September 2017 at 1:30 pm #

Hi all,

I arrived a little late to the party and have just completed my third week. The first 2 weeks were tough – 5 points lost in the first week and then 10 points lost in the second. Week 3 has seen me claw back 8 points so feeling more optimistic. For me Ligue 2 has been a disaster thus far. Just 2 wins from 17 bets and 10 points down. Germany and Italy have both given me 6 points profit and are the stand out performers so far.

This is my first season doing this and the whole concept appears sound and I’m enjoying the ride, despite a difficult start. Onwards and Upwards (I hope!).

46. AM0751
11 September 2017 at 6:58 pm #

Hi guys,

Musing here. In the dutch draw system, you might want to have a look at the individual results for some teams the last 5 seasons.

Check out Feyenoord playing at home and AZ and Vitesse playing away.

Cheers.

• Alex
14 September 2017 at 3:11 pm #

I have done this with all my systems, although have only excluded the single most unprofitable team in any given system. Feyenoord at home are an absolute no-go for me, and I’ve also taken Bayern Munich out of my Bundesliga system and Bordeaux away from my Ligue 1.

47. jo
11 September 2017 at 8:20 pm #

Hi AM075111,

I think Ajax is also the “wrong” team to bet on draw when Ajax is home team. However, once I found it out, I had both teams 3 bets already lost in total. I don’t know again, is it a good idea to quit betting them if I already started. I’m like thinking what if they draw suddenly?
AZ playing away is almost zero sum game, Vitesse is really worth consideration, but again, both teams have little data set as away teams in my opinion. My strategy is 1 half.
Maybe Right Winger has some advice?

48. AM0751
11 September 2017 at 10:33 pm #

Jo,

Check out the conveyor belt comment from rightwinger: http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/20k-in-214-days-winter-league-hdafu-tables/#comment-18844

49. Gabriel
17 September 2017 at 9:00 pm #

Hi.

Simples question about the Stake Ratchet & Stop-loss Mechanisms: it is suggested that if you are winning, you should increase +5% after 1000 units won. And if you are loosing, you should decrease -5%, but right after 500 units lost. Is that just to have a more conservative approach towards bankroll management?

Here in soccerwidow, there is another article that indicates a different approach: http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/money-management/how-to-calculate-losing-streaks-optimal-bankroll-sport-betting/

Thanks!

• Right Winger
17 September 2017 at 10:20 pm #

Hello Gabriel,

The staking plans we suggest are not set in stone – they are merely examples of the direction you should be thinking in when understanding the importance of having a double-ended (front and back) system.

The ratchet is there to take advantage of runs of accumulated profits and also acts to increase the value of your bets further, assuming you have value on your side in the first instance.

But the more important consideration is protecting what you have, which is why the stop-loss is suggested at a lower threshold (i.e. 500 instead of 1,000 units) than the ratchet.

Therefore, I wouldn’t say this approach is conservative – we described the staking plan in this article as medium-aggressive – we are not acting totally gung-ho when increasing the stakes, nor are we crying over a little spilt milk when bad runs happen.

The reality is that the stop-loss in this example first activated once a loss of five times the initial 100 unit stake affected results. For the ratchet, the stakes were increased when ten times the initial stake had been won.

Ultimately, the decision is yours as to how ‘conservative’ or adventurous you wish to be with the staking plan, but whatever combination you choose, bear in mind that once profits are in the bank, the first consideration is to get what is effectively ‘free money’ working as hard as possible for you.

If you are going to ratchet the stakes, you must also operate a stop-loss at the same time – never trade on one without the other.

I hope this is of some assistance and thanks for your question.

50. AM0751
22 September 2017 at 2:23 pm #

Hi rightwinger, quick question here.

Oddsportal added Asian Odds to their list of “required” bookmakers.

As far as I can tell, they offer odds from various bookies, including Pinnacle, SboBet and some other asian bookies,

Do you discard this bookie in your line of thinking as well?

• Right Winger
22 September 2017 at 3:10 pm #

Hello again AM0751,

I answered this question a few days ago on the User Guide article. (10 September 2017 at 1:13 pm).

Hopefully, everything there should be self-explanatory.

All the best.

51. Daniel
23 September 2017 at 10:33 pm #

Hi Right Winger,

when creating a portfolio, what do you think about analyzing the systems we chose for every league with the team analysis tab, to eventually exclude some teams that do not look promising despite the overall aspect of the system. Would this be a good fine tuning option, or could it alter the final outcome of the system in a bad way?

52. Right Winger
24 September 2017 at 8:33 pm #

Hello Daniel,

Yes, excluding individual teams is an option we occasionally exercise. Indeed, I mentioned it in my comment above dated 11 August 2017 at 12:55 am.

Once you have your system, resort the data tab by team name and also chronologically by game number to see if there is one or two teams that constantly let the system down.

Hide them and then reprogram your formulas to see what differences there are.

I hope this helps.

53. SImon
25 September 2017 at 9:46 am #

Daniel,

I couldn’t seem to reply to your note above, so will do so here at the bottom.

It’s a very good point about the balance of the portfolio possibly being the cause of the problem. I’m not too sure though that is the case. When compiling my portfolio, I used the example campaign from RW as the benchmark for my own, and paid particular attention to the notes about defining the risk of a system. So a lot of my time was picking out the best systems from each league and arranging them into what I felt at the time was balanced. I think I did a pretty good job of mirroring what was a successful campaign that was presented to us here.

To give a clear example of my portfolio. As mentioned in my last post, I have 13 systems currently active. I will list them by risk classification. I won’t mention odds or anything so as not to give away the tables content – but if you were to look at harmonic mean, the mean of the odds is low in the low risk and gets higher by risk classification.

Russia – Favourite (Low risk)
Italy Serie A – Favourite (Low risk)

France Ligue 1 – Favourite (Low medium risk)
France Ligue 2 – Draw (Low medium risk)
Turkey – Favourite (Low medium risk)
Belgium – Home win (Low medium risk)

EPL – Draw (medium risk)
Czech Liga – Draw (medium risk)
Portugal underdog (Medium risk)

Germany – underdog (medium high risk)
Netherlands – Draw (medium high risk)
Poland – underdog (medium high risk)
Spain – underdog (medium high risk)

So from that you can see that I have 6 systems that are on the lower end of risk and 6 systems that are medium risk and medium high. So I feel I have the balance right here. Not too much of one and not too much of the other. The overall hit rate expected for the portfolio is 44%, which is higher than that of the portfolio illustrated by RW here.

The big problem for me is that the low risk systems are NOT supporting the higher risk ones. Russia is losing. Italy is break even, Turkey is losing, Belgium is showing a small profit. Ligue 2 is in freefall. So, my low risk systems are not doing the job they were intended to do. And, of course, because the higher risk systems in general are not doing so great, the overall portfolio is suffering.

I honestly don’t know how to combat this. In fact, there is very little I can do in reality. I have performed the analysis and poured hours into that, modelled my own portfolio on 2 highly successful ones run by RW, and diligently place the bets as the system dictates. So, preparation has been spot on. I can’t influence results unfortunately.

My worst fear before getting started on this was, ”What happens if prolonged losing streaks strike on multiple systems at the same time?” I think I am seeing the answer to that to a degree as to me it seems results for the system are front loaded with losses, as evidenced by the 30% average hit rate for the last 6 weeks, which dipped to 25% over the last 2 weeks. The average hit rate projected for the portfolio as a whole is 44%. So, results so far are way way way below what I expect them to be.

My thinking now is to stem the tide and try to get through this losing streak. The way to do that I’m unsure about, simply just proceed with level stakes, 1% of initial bankroll? Or recalculate based on the current bankroll?

Any money management advice would be most welcome here. Thanks 🙂

54. jo
26 September 2017 at 12:01 am #

For some reason I don’t have reply button to answer below to Simon’s 24 September 2017 at 10:43 pm comment so, I will reply here at the bottom:

Simon, when I was going through that bumpy ride in my Summer campaign, I was also asking myself, does it really work? And so on. At the very start of campaign the curve went down and I thought, maybe something is wrong. Then I had brief success and thought, yes, this is working! During that 3.5 months struggle, I was in doubt and good mood multiple times. This is natural thinking of human kind, when matters go well, we think everything is fine, once something starts going against us, we may become mentally shaky. Currently my summer campaign is at record high. This week I made little profits at winter campaign as well and now my balance is at 0. As I found out in Soccerwidow’s campaigns, results of some leagues may be decided in the last games whether they are profitable or not and it can be big money either way. High odds systems can recover very quickly if you hit a winning streak. In my Netherlands strategy I would need only 3 straight wins at odds of 5 or even lower to be in profit. And the hit rate would still be 21.7% instead predicted average of 27.5%. This kind of recovery can happen in 1 round and a single day. Getting to this bottom with Netherlands where I am now took me 1.5 months. Of course, there may be no recovery and system will fail. Netherlands is my 3rd worst performing system at the time. My low/low medium risk strategies that are in my portfolio to help me survive losses are not working either: only 1 of 5 is profitable with overall -70 balance. If I would consider to reduce my stake size in case I’m not comfortable with the situation, I think I would do it only if my balance was somewhere around 0, how far around it’s up to each of us. What if you reduce it when it’s at -3000 after losing rounds and then winning rounds follow straight away? Like my own experience with one summer strategy I mentioned earlier and 6 winning bets in a row right after I decided to quit it. Then I thought with each winning simulation bet: if the system ends up in a profit, let this be a fee for the lesson!
Put emotions aside before you change anything, think over what good and bad those changes would bring you when strategy is having bad and good times, also, changes or no changes can turn back against or go along with you at any time. As some of us found out it’s a good idea to exclude betting draw when Feyenoord and Ajax play home, however they can have “anomalous” year at any time. Eventually, if you have an edge against bookmakers and “right” portfolio, in the long run winning systems will recoup all the losing systems. So, if you want to reduce your stakes to feel more comfortable and your balance is somewhere around 0, reduce it.
It remains to say what we endure now, we are doomed to face these kind of situations, unfortunately. Just be persistent and work to the end, there is no other way to be a winner in the long run.

Best of luck to everyone!

And it would be interesting to hear from Right Winger, how his winter campaign is performing?

• Right Winger
27 September 2017 at 2:52 pm #

Hi Jo,

I think it is best to say that our Winter League Campaign has largely been supported by the concurrent Summer League portfolio up to this point.

Our situation is therefore probably not so bad as those embarking on their first set of systems, relying only on results from them.

But we should also mention that some leagues have only played 4-5 games up to today’s date. It is still far too early to judge how the Winter Leagues will eventually perform, but suffice to say, I am not worried at this moment.

The start of a season is notoriously difficult to forecast, but results will begin settling down, with teams assuming their natural place in the pecking order as either they become favoured in future matches for a good start to the season, or become heavier and heavier underdogs as the season progresses. Some will sit between these two extremities.

League position in the EPL, for example, is slowly sorting itself out with the usual suspects beginning to rise to the top. And after only a handful of games, there are teams which have already earmarked themselves for a struggle during this campaign.

Odds apportionment will also become more and more accurate as the season progresses. In other words, the bookmakers start off the season with a blank page in terms of how teams will perform, and can only begin to correct their initial odds estimates as each team shows its form.

Whatever happens, the distribution curve of results should eventually resemble those of previous seasons.

Hang on tight – it may be a bumpy ride to begin with, but with value on our side with almost every bet we place, the long-term outlook should be a profit of one size or another.

55. Daniele
27 September 2017 at 1:48 pm #

Hi all,

After paper testing my second portfolio I can see more balanced results so far. The losing streaks have improved significantly, and although the portfolio is still about 5 or 6 units negative, it have coped much better with the last disastrous couple of weeks. Many system are underperforming but this is something we can’t do nothing about. I hope that things will change in the upcoming weeks. I will keep paper testing until I see there is a change of pace in the overall campaign, before committing again money to it. It is obvious that we entered a very bad run on almost all leagues, and I believe this has to adjust accordingly to the forecasts eventually. I guess the strength of a good portfolio is to endure this kind of pain as well, so we will see how things will turn in the future

1 October 2017 at 3:26 pm #

Another DISASTROUS week! I don’t know how your “campaigns” are going, but I am desperate beyond all belief. Out of my last 15 bets, only 2 won and I am another 10 stakes down this week! My bank is almost depleted, all systems with the exception of one are in ruins, performing not only way below expectations, but also NOT WINNING a single bet in the last two weeks! Not a single favourite wins their matches, there isn’t a single draw in France2 or The Netherlands, underdogs in Germany are losing heavily in every game. Everything is falling apart and I am 99% confident that there is no way the systems are going to recover from this annihilating string of losses. Any update on your campaigns will be appreciated.

• jo
1 October 2017 at 7:37 pm #

same fate with my campaign. 3 bets won out of 28. However 2 extra teams won I decided to exclude from betting and it was the reason leagues of those 2 teams produced loss this week. Had I won 5 bets out of 30, it would’ve not changed the whole picture a lot. 1708 units actual loss, would’ve been -1319 had I bet on those 2 excluded teams. Only 1 league produced profit, everything else was a straight way down to the bottom. The worst week so far, with estimated 2 bets left today and 1 tomorrow. So, very bad can even get worse. I will still place those bets, although I’m sceptical about any improvement this round.

57. Simon
1 October 2017 at 7:37 pm #

I feel your pain on this. If you had read my posts, you will know I had endured 6 straight losing weeks after accruing 24 units of profit in a month. This weekend has again been an unmitigated disaster. I entered the week being down 14 units of profit, and after a terrible Friday and Saturday I finished with being down 24 units of profit.

Friday and Saturday were horrendous with 3 bets won out of 24 bets placed. At this point for the systems I have chosen, which I will add, are extremely profitable over the past 5 years, with most showing in a profit in ALL 5 seasons, they are just flat out not performing. As mentioned too, I modeled my portfolio balance on the extremely successful campaign fro RW, so I know i have no made mistakes in portfolio composition or balance of risk.

I actually pulled the plug on real money bets at the end of Saturday, because I cannot any longer justify betting when the results in reality are showing me this venture is going to fail. In real terms I have seen a swing of 50 points of profit lost in 7 weeks. That is without doubt the worst results I have ever experienced in betting.

The concept is sound, but reality here is anther thing. I can accept that underdogs and draws will show a lower hit rate, but for me and most others commenting, that is not being supported by the lower risk systems, as at present favorite systems showing high historic profits are performing awfully right now.

Today has been another disaster for all the systems that I had running, but I have fortunately not incurred losses. But the picture would have been bleaker had I not terminated the venture. Even a stop loss is of no use when a selection of bets wins at rate of 3 in 24. Thats a devastating blow to any bank.

The key for me here is past results do not guarantee future success. And as great as the hdafu tables are in principle for what they show, they can’t tell you if all the systems are going to line up losers at the same time, which seems to be happening now for most of us. And if the systems do recover, which is in major doubt, our banks will have likely been destroyed by this extremely unfortunate distribution of results.

As for the conveyor belt analogy, well most of us definitely got on at the wrong time, and have paid the price for it. I’m stepping off the belt now and will enjoy not having the weekly headache of this thing gradually dying a death.

58. jo
2 October 2017 at 9:30 am #

Hi Right Winger,

in your 10 August 2017 at 5:07 pm reply to Dennis’ question isn’t it too optimistic to place bets 5% size of the bank, you said it’s not an unreasonable sum. My experience of this weekend and I think for many others is that it’s way too much and leads to disaster. Had I placed 5% stakes of my bank, I would’ve lost 77% of the bank from 0 balance.

In another reply to AM0751 on 25 September 2017 at 8:49 pm in the article “2017-18 Winter League HDAFU Tables – For Sale!” you said :

“Putting things into perspective, if a portfolio comprises ten systems, the straight chances of all ten systems having their worst performance for six seasons (the five seasons of historical results in the HDAFU table plus the current season) is 16.67% (one in six) to the power of 10 = 0.00000166%. This equates to one in 60.3 million.”

What is the chance all 10, or 9 out of 10 systems produce loss in 1 weekend? I have 9 systems failed out of 12 I had to bet this weekend, assuming I did bet on 2 teams I decided to exclude from 2 different leagues. The real result is 11 systems failed out of 12 and 6.3% of the bank is gone. I think it’s way bigger chance than 0.00000166% and real percentage would really help to decide reasonable stakes for everyone. Since it can last not only 1 weekend as it goes now. And I have not a 10 systems, I have 17 of them in 1st half. Even that does not help.

It’s tough thing to do, I knew it will be and probably no one wants to do it to win cents, however, it’s not easy to find golden mean regarding the stakes size.

• Right Winger
2 October 2017 at 2:58 pm #

I do understand your frustrations – believe me, I have been in the same situation many times in the past.

At this stage, all I can advise is the following:

1. Paper test your strategies from now on without committing money to them.

2. Learn the full extent of what is going wrong:

– Is it solely down to the hit rate?
– Is the stake size too large, or too small?
– Are you placing all of the relevant bets, or are some missed, or selected by accident?
– Are you getting high enough odds on the bets that win?
– Is the stop-loss mechanism working?
– Do you need to reconsider the stop-loss thresholds?
– Can the balance of risk within your portfolio be bettered?

Regarding the last point, read the Odds Toggle article for how you can back-test the odds you have bought with each bet against the highest available at the time in order to see how this affects the simulation.

Perhaps the bookmakers and exchanges you are using are too far adrift of the highest market odds? Work out what your odds toggle adjustment should be and enter it into your HDAFU table to see how the difference affects your strategy simulation. Does the affect of the toggle figure still make the system in question viable?

Admittedly, a losing streak of any nature is hard to take in any walk of life, although I always advocate being a good loser in order to be a good winner.

Keeping a cool head under pressure is vital in situations such as these and, although it may be hard to reflect honestly upon one’s own character, the question of whether you really have what it takes to be a gambler is something you should be seriously considering.

If you really have analysed in detail exactly what is happening and can pinpoint exactly what is going wrong, then there is always a chance to fix the problem.

Standing back and surveying the wreckage of a crash is definitely an emotive thing to do, but you must approach this task as objectively as possible and remain level headed about it in order to decide what to do next, and how to avoid a similar situation in the future.

However, as a few have already mentioned, no-one who has bought into the HDAFU system betting approach is likely to have an identical portfolio of strategies or available bookmakers/exchanges with the next person.

For those of you who are suffering right now, there are definitely others enjoying a more profitable run, but of course, many people prefer to keep their successes to themselves.

For me, it is obviously disappointing to read negative comments and also to see people losing faith after just a few rounds of the season. Again, I do sympathise with you, and I also accept that deciding to drop the whole thing is a good idea if you have reached that conclusion. There is absolutely no shame in admitting that gambling is not for you.

But please be aware that risk is with us all, everyday of our lives. Every time we cross the road, we are risking our safety. And many people don’t take crossing the road too seriously – it is taken for granted that all will be well.

However, when it comes to financial risk, people are definitely more emotive by nature, purely because an element of greed, or anticipation of becoming richer, is included in the bargain.

To summarise, take stock of the situation and realign your priorities, even if this means dropping gambling altogether. As we have said throughout this blog, there are easier ways of making money, and far better ways to spend our time.

• jo
2 October 2017 at 8:54 pm #

Hi Right Winger,

It’s solely down to the hit rate and there is nothing you can do. If your hit rate of the weekend is 10-16% compared to 40% predicted average there is no way even to brake even. I estimate there should be enough to hit 25-30% to be at zero result, of course it depends what odds you bet on and what odds win. But if you win just 3 bets out of 30, only high odds win can push you forward. However, you don’t bet them every week, nor every of them wins. When I struggled with my summer campaign for 3.5 months, only 4 out of 8 systems were spoiling results and the lowest hit rate of the week was 17%. In winter campaign 9 out of 16 currently running systems are failing badly and hit rate of this week is even lower with the double amount of systems in play compared to summer leagues. I need 7 more wins at low/middle range odds to be in slight profits and 30% average hit rate. Even after such a bad weekend. It looks so little compared to 335 bets I made so far and so little missing wins can have such a devastating effect. But with balance going back and forth like this with absolutely horrible last weekend, with no support from low odds systems it is really demoralising.

Btw, one question: in your reply to Daniel 24 September 2017 at 8:33 pm above you said: “Yes, excluding individual teams is an option we occasionally exercise.”

Why occasionally and not every time? I checked all of my systems and there some teams that are really asking to be excluded from betting.

• Right Winger
2 October 2017 at 9:12 pm #

Hi Jo,

Yes, we occasionally exclude a team from the results, but it depends on the size of the league.

For example, if we were to take one or two outlier teams away from a 10 or 12 team league, it would deduct a larger percentage of games from a potential system than excluding teams from a 20 team league.

Regarding your portfolio, I would really urge you to look also at the other points I mentioned above in mine of 2.58pm today. If you are absolutely sure that none of the other points are a factor, and that the performance is solely due to hit rate, then weather the storm by paper testing for the time being and only commit money again once you are back in complete control.

59. Daniel
2 October 2017 at 12:53 pm #

Hey guys,

it is now obvious that everyone is having a bad time with the current state of the majority of systems chosen for this season winter portfolio. I suggest to everyone to continue their current campaign on paper without committing further money to it until it becomes clear that things are going in a different direction. Save your main asset (your bankroll) and wait until the systems starts to show more consistent profits over the near future, and start to bet again when the storm seems over. I guess this is the safest and smartest course of action until we can be confident about our portfolios making money. The principle of the tables is very sound and logic, so eventually i am sure things will change, but for now it is better to sit on the bench and wait for a better time to start betting again. I also really would like to know Right Winger’ s thoughts on the matter and his advices to what is the best course of action to take right now.

• Right Winger
2 October 2017 at 9:14 pm #

Hi Daniel,

I think I was writing my reply to the others whilst you were sending this. Please refer to mine above of 2.58pm today for further thoughts.

60. Scott
3 October 2017 at 2:46 pm #

For my part, I’m still desperately clinging on to the idea that the whole thing might start to right itself. There’s the odd glimmer:

– favourites in Turkey have started to improve
– draws in Belgium, the same

But these are being more than offset by a terrible run in Ligue 2 (draws) and the Netherlands (draws). Honestly though, if I cut these two systems out I would be more or less break even.

I’ve made amendments to both of the above for the last weekend of results, removing a couple of teams and revisiting the odds range for the Netherlands, which has certainly stemmed the tide of losses in Holland -there seems to be an absolute refusal to draw games for the most part in the Eredivisie so far this season. It was still 4 bets, 4 losses from those two systems at the weekend, but early days for this new changed setup.

Anyway, I’m not a million miles away from moving to just paper testing, and I might actually use the international break to revisit the original spreadsheets and see how other strategies would have performed to date (ones I haven’t selected), particularly for those two leagues. If there’s anything particularly compelling, I might switch, although I’m inclined to stick with plan.

Completely understand people stepping back though, it has been a very rough start to the season. I do sympathise with RW’s position too though – I was inputting results a couple of weeks back and noticed that the Dutch league was only in Round 5 or something, and thought to myself how early in the season it was to be despairing. Don’t get me wrong, I’m despairing….I’m just aware how early it is to be doing it!

RW, any thoughts on the idea of considering switching strategy at this stage of the season? Is it too early, and best to stick it out. Of course another option is to move to paper testing on just the two most problematic strategies and continue to place bets on the others…? Any thoughts appreciated.

61. tp
3 October 2017 at 5:21 pm #

hi all

I gave up staking on real money 4 weeks ago. even with the stop loss in place, you lose a larger amount and with reduced stakes after, it will take a tremendous turnaround to achieve parity after these results.
I understand RW pointing towards the odds etc but in my experience it is the strike rate, especially france 2…….. it honestly looks like the French league has said we will have a result and play on till someone wins!!!!

the short odds systems let me down badly to and I’m not touching this again unless I see a marked improvement.

62. jo
3 October 2017 at 5:36 pm #

Hi Scott,

how suddenly leagues and results began to deteriorate, so suddenly they can start performing perfectly for some time, beyond any expectations. No one knows what next rounds will bring. I lost 27 bets out of 30 last weekend and to win 27 out of 30 in the next round is also possible. Of course it’s not very realistic, but 20 wins still would be fantastic, making 66% hit rate. I did hit 64% in my summer league once and it happened exactly when I came back to 0 balance from my 3.5 months struggle. After such a long frustrating period I did not expect such a good hit rate, but it it did happen and balance curve rocketed to the sky. With brief struggles the curve kept rising until now. Bad results in winter leagues urges me to make a pause, because I naturally expect the next round to perform badly as well, but based on my summer experience I can’t stop thinking, if I make a pause, I may regret it as well. Statistics does not care what happened and can offset horrible performance and losses in a stormy way right after them. I’m not sure what I’m going to do.

• Simon
3 October 2017 at 9:56 pm #

Jo,

I’ve been continuing to read peoples comments on their situations with the portfolio approach. The ones sharing their experiences are all exactly in the same boat more or less. If anyone reading the comments here is indeed making a healthy profit, please do share with us the constituent elements of your portfolio, as I’m extremely intrigued to know what leagues and systems are turning a good profit. Perhaps there are a few leagues other than the 12 I analyzed where profits are being made.

I’m like you in my view that switching over to paper testing could end up leaving you feeling burned, as what happens if the hit rate spikes next round and you end up leaving profits on the table. That would be immensely infuriating.

Whether right or wrong, I think if a method of betting or system approach is viable, then it would be successful with flat staking without the need to alter stakes, and certainly without the need to stop betting to wait for better times. A lot of us are loathe to see another week or 2 of very low hit rates, which would further decimate our bankrolls, hence are considering or have already decided to paper test, or suspend betting entirely.

I don’t know if this method of betting is always prone to such volatility in terms of hit rates dipping so significantly across all systems at once. Perhaps it is, or perhaps this early season is just a one off disaster, that won’t repeat again. I suppose paper testing would save us money this season and allow us to decide if a portfolio approach is viable.

I know RW had a great campaign as illustrated. But that is one example. All the real life anecdotal evidence we have seen here so far suggests it is tough going – and that worries me. As mentioned, I really would be interested to hear about successes thus far, so as to perhaps encourage me to plug away with my own portfolio rather than ditch it entirely.

On the note of the stop loss. I had been comparing flat staking alongside a stop loss, and for my own portfolio, it didn’t take much difference to the bottom line. Of course, the flat staking lost more than it would have done had I lowered stakes last week. But if I were now to lower my stakes based on 7 straight losing weeks, my stake would be halved. Looking forward that makes it incredibly tough to make back 25 points of losses, where in effect that 25 points is now 50 points at half stakes. Recovery of the bank to break even seems optimistic. Which for me is why I feel really turned off from carrying on as it seems I have a mountain to climb to come back from these losses just to break even.

Tough decisions indeed!

• jo
4 October 2017 at 7:35 pm #

Hi Simon,

if you still decide to continue with real money and if I were you, I would probably halve my stakes. In case the next round performs well, I would still make some money and would not become infuriated, because some piece of the cake would be in my plate. In case the next round brings loss again, it won’t look too much for you, hopefully. Or just reduce the stakes to the amount you don’t care to lose in case horrible round like this happens twice in a row.

I think stop-loss & ratchet mechanism may not make a big difference compared to flat stakes if system is losing at the time, but it should be quite a difference in case portfolio is in profit from the start and pretty much in a constant rise. You can check the numbers in Soccerwidow’s winter campaign. And you probably compared flat stakes with stop-loss with your current results, not so far away from from the start of the season. Major European leagues played about 7 rounds so far. They have about 34-38 rounds. At the end of a season it should be quite a difference. Also numerical difference may not look big, but in percentages it may look much more. Difference between 1 and 2 is just 1, not a lot, but in percentages it’s 50%. And it’s really a lot.

Simon, whatever you decide to do, I hope it’s gonna be right decision.

• Simon
4 October 2017 at 9:46 pm #

Jo,

As far as I can tell, the ratchet only comes in to play to make use of profits accrued. I.e if the bank is increased you put it to work more by putting more of it into play. And assuming hit rates stay consistent you would reap benefits of it. And if hit rates start to drop, you cut back stakes to protect profits.

The issue for me with the stop loss is that when you reduce stakes as your bankroll is decreasing and going into loss, it becomes ever harder to make profits. The reduction of stakes does help you “stay in the game”, but when you are winning a pittance with each winning bet its harder for the bank to recover to break even. A prolonged winning run would enable one to increase stakes, but at present having just one winning week seems far away.

If stakes are reducing week by week over an extended time, then that for me is an indication of a failing system.

My thinking at present is not to quit though. I must admit over the weekend I simply laughed to myself as my two final bets went from wins to losses due to injury time goals, and at that point I chose to take Sunday off. Frustration was at a high and those final results were a real kick in the proverbials. So my position is that the bank I had set aside for the portfolio is down by 30%, but, if I can claw back and break even, or even cover the cost of the tables I purchased, then we get out of this situation unscathed and look to next season.

I’m not a reckless guy, at the moment the bankroll is intact and sitting there safe and sound. No chasing losses, no trying to get it back quick. The international break is a great time to clear the mind, get rid of any annoyance from this bad run, and hope things even out.

The money I have set aside for this campaign is part of a larger amount I have available for betting with, completely separate from personal money….so if it loses it loses. I’m more upset that the system I spent so long trying to perfect is failing….I’d be equally frustrated if just paper testing and seeing these results believe me. Because I really do believe this concept.

My stakes at the start of the campaign were 1% of bankroll. So I will just rest and make stakes 1% of the current bankroll, and roll with that and hope I see a surge in hit rates, as right now it seem to have bottomed out and is due for a rebound.

Let’s see!

63. Olly
4 October 2017 at 2:32 pm #

I’m having a similarly tough time of it, my running totals as follows:

Holland: – 6.2 points
Ligue 1: -6.5 points
Ligue 2: -25.5 points
Turkey: +4 points
Italy: -1.5 points
Germany: +9 points
Belgium: -3 points.

29.7 points down after 6 weeks of betting. I joined late and have only a small portfolio as was reluctant to shell out for alot of spreadsheets as my first time doing this.

I am loathe to paper trade going forward as feel that if I do that will guarantee an upturn in results. But am finding waking up to check results more stressful than it should be! I have been reducing stakes and will continue to do this I think. I’m based in Australia so difficult for me to place bets within the hour prior to kick off and normally place between 1 and 5 hours before.

I have no issues with this really, as was my decision to sign up for it and my choice to put my money at risk. It’s clear though that a decent bank is required and I’m sure I read that a 20 point bank would be sufficient. I don’t think that is enough and would advise a 50 point bank minimum.

I don’t normally like International breaks but will enjoy this one and will be a chance to reflect and evaluate.

Good luck all!

64. Audiendi
5 October 2017 at 1:01 pm #

Hey guys,

I’m sorry to hear that your portfolios aren’t going too well right now. I hope things get better.

Should you read this post, may I ask, are all your systems based on the 1 x 2 full-time market?

Because if things are horrendously volatile in that market, maybe try the half-time market? I’ve heard tell that it’s stabler and easier to make predictions for. Although I’m not sure if the HDAFU tables cater for it (I’m yet to purchase those, I’m still doing the Fundamentals of Sports Betting).

And, of course there’s over/under markets. Maybe they’re steadier?

I’m not sure how lucrative the odds for those respective markets tend to be. But maybe they enhance the chances of a steady profit?

If the ‘favourites’ aspect of your system isn’t getting far, why not swap it for one of those systems?

Anyway, I still have a lot to learn and this might run contrary to the portfolio idea. But I thought I’d throw it out there for you to consider in the hope it might help.

Happy hunting!

65. Alex
11 October 2017 at 10:16 pm #

Well, unfortunately for me it seems like that’s the end of the road as far as real money goes for the moment. The last two weekends, as they have for everybody else, have decimated my bankroll and I actually can’t afford to get another full round of bets on.

I only ended up picking seven systems due to lack of funds so always knew I was taking a risk in terms of balance of my portfolio, but I never truly expected to see four of my seven systems equal or better their longest losing streak at the same time! So for me it’s time to paper trade and keep an eye on it, build up my bankroll via other means, and then possibly return for a second half of the season portfolio. Good luck to everybody continuing!

• Simon
12 October 2017 at 2:48 pm #

Alex,

The run of luck, where underdog and favourite systems across the majority of top leagues are failing has been what has cost us. The underlying premise of the portfolio is that systems support each other, and we just aren’t seeing that support.

I skipped betting on any games on the Sunday of the last round of games, but tallying things up to include those games, my portfolio is down 34 points, which is 34% of my bankroll.

I allotted a bankroll of 100 points to this venture. I have decided to play the percentages and hope that a hit rate of 17% (last weeks results) will get better. So I will press on and alter my stakes to reflect each stake still being 1% of bankroll. I will just have to accept winnings per bet will be less until I experience a good run of higher hit rates.

At this point I will be happy to dig myself out of this hole, break even for the campaign and cover the cost of the tables purchased.

Wishing us all the best of luck!

• Alex
12 October 2017 at 9:30 pm #

Good luck to you Simon! You seem to have done the sensible thing and erred on the side of caution regarding bankroll management. I went for a more aggressive approach, and whilst I knew I was taking a bit of a risk I never expected such an overwhelming failure to all my systems at the same time.

You’re correct, that lack of support from the low risk systems is just compounding the problems with the higher risk systems. In fact, the only one of my systems performing well is my Portuguese one, but bets in that one are very limited due to the small odds range so it’s barely even scratched the sides of the losses from the other systems.

Hopefully your perseverance will pay off. I’m heading back to other pursuits to rebuild my bankroll, and then hopefully I can put together a promising second half season portfolio and be a bit more cautious with my bankroll.

66. LeBo
12 October 2017 at 5:06 pm #

Hey

My campaign did comparatively well when I see the results you mentioned in your comments. I did not split the leagues in two halves. I always analyzed the whole season of each league. If you want to follow my campaign, just visit http://betlist.atwebpages.com .

• Right Winger
16 October 2017 at 2:50 pm #

Hi LeBo,

Very interesting results – thanks for sharing them with us. I shall certainly be keeping an eye on your campaign as it unfolds and would also recommend it to others on this thread.

Thanks again.

13 October 2017 at 9:19 pm #

Again, a disastrous day. I hoped that after the big international break things will pick up, but today all 5 of my bets lost! I can’t believe this is happening – currently I sit at 15% less hitrate than the projected one! IMPOSSIBLE!

• Simon
13 October 2017 at 11:49 pm #

I made 7 bets today, only 1 bet won, which was a 2.12 favorite. So another day ending in a heavy loss. My portfolio hit rate is 14-15% less than the projected hit rate, which as you say is nothing short of a disaster when it comes to looking at the bankroll being depleted. My stakes have been reduced priorate this round of games in an attempt to stop the bleeding.

I really don’t know what to expect with the hit rate in the short term – they really are in a prolonged slump right now. I have multiple systems performing to the level where they have already exceeded the longest experienced losing streak. I fear that unless the hit rates start to improve soon, some of the systems will be doomed to fail, with big losses incurred, and it will also be harder for the bankroll to recover, when its most historically profitable systems have failed.

It’s why I have abandoned the notion of making a lot of money from this venture, but instead will be happy to recoup my losses and cover the outlay on the tables. Then I can decide whether I want to do this type of betting method again next year.

14 October 2017 at 4:41 pm #

Don’t bother. I am dropping this nightmare as soon as the end of this weekend. After the 5 out of 5 lost bets yesterday, today I started with another 5 out of 5 lost, which totals to 10 straight losses across all systems! I hate to admit it, but it seems to me the cause is lost beyond all hope. I spent a tremendous amount of time trying to understand the tables, researching, reading and waiting for the final minutes before kickoff to place the bets. I’ve been committed to this endeavor with all I’ve got and in the end not only did I not win a penny, but accumulated horrendous losses, with not a single week, not even a single DAY in the last month producing any profit. It’s been only losses, losses, losses. I know betting has bad periods, but not to have a single winning day in an entire month, a hitrate almost 20% below the projected one, and only waiting and hoping for the “next high odd lucky win” doesn’t cut it for me anymore. I am completely sure that even if I continue till the end of the season, it will be impossible to bring back the enormous losses the systems have suffered so far. It is simply not possible to bring back 30 units negative back. Rightwinger didn’t at any single point sit at -3000 pounds of balance, nor did he have a month with such a loss. That brings me to the conclusion that either the results of his campaign are forged, or that we are having such a unprecedentedly bad year that the losses are already beyond repair.

68. jo
15 October 2017 at 8:37 pm #

Another bad weekend. Not as bad as 2 weeks ago, but in the best case scenario after 2 estimated bets left tomorrow I will have a loss of -500. In case remaining bets lose, I will be -1400 this weekend. Currently I have won 9 bets out of 30, 30% hit rate. None of the high odds won, except one bet I decided to skip. Last 2 rounds were really poor, this Friday was loss, Saturday profit, Sunday ruined everything again. My portfolio did not perform as bad as Rado’s since I had winning days and weekends during the last month, but I don’t think it will be any easier to recover from losses. Exactly this day 1 year ago Right Winger had 12600 in his balance, if I get back to 0 before Christmas, it will be fantastic result.

69. Simon
15 October 2017 at 10:27 pm #

Similar experience for me this weekend. Friday resulted in 1 win from 7 and cost me about 5 points of profit. Saturday was a great day and actually hit 60% of my bets to gain about 15 points. Today was horrible and I won 3 of 12, giving back most of Saturdays profits.

The hit rates from day to day are quite volatile, as in we can’t seem to string a few good days together. I can’t recall back to back winning days. And from week to week recently, the hit rates are way under what we have all projected.

Totting up my results this week I came out with a few units profit, but am still around 30 points in deficit.

Had today been a bit better, this week would have been exactly what I needed to get back on track, but it wasn’t to be.

Jo, as you probably read in my previous post, I had modified my expectation in as much as I will be happy to simply right the ship and cover my expenses. Anything above that will be a pleasant surprise.

I just look at it his way. We all purchased good information, and have been provided with a lot of help here in getting our portfolios up and running. I appreciate that a lot. Understandably those us of us having a worse than expected time of things are disappointed and upset. I’m trying to just detach from the results and wait for the hit rates to improve.

Saturday for me was a glimpse of what can happen when things go right. I just need a few of those days in a row to happen to get me back to even.

This week for me is pretty much done as there may be just 2 more bets to make tomorrow.

One thing to point out about right wingers campaign, was yes, it got off to a brilliant start, then slowed down during the middle, to then experience 30 points of loss in the last 4 weeks of the campaign. I don’t suppose for a minute any campaign will show the same pattern as the last one. So whilst we have seen a good start, followed by a really bad period that has put us at overall loss, perhaps with patience we will see an upswing in results.

At this point patience is all there really is left to employ.

• jo
16 October 2017 at 12:58 am #

Hi Simon,

when I check how much extra wins I need to be in profit on each losing weekend usually it’s really not a lot, depending on odds 3 extra wins would be just enough with actual hit rate being still quite far away from projected 41%. It’s really crazy how differently the next year portfolio can perform compared to the previous year. On Saturday I won 7 bets out of 13, 3 wins produced profits less than 100 units each and the day was still in profit. Success is not so far away most of the time except that horrible weekend 2 weeks ago, but moving back and forth for prolonged period of time is really tough.

70. Kevin Howe
15 October 2017 at 10:56 pm #

Hi guys , i purchased 2 or 3 HDAFU tables at the start of the season and have been paper trading out of interest , i have also been following all of your progress this winter season , after studying and thinking about this way of betting for months , i am afraid i have no long term faith in the profitability , alot of the inflection points we are betting on fall below the sharp Asian lines ie Pinnicle and Sbo these are the most liquid markets and therefore the most accurate odds unless you are beating there odds at kick off you will not make any money. I may be missing something and i hope that i am wrong .

• Right Winger
16 October 2017 at 2:30 pm #

Hi Kevin,

I’m not quite sure what you mean by “the inflection points we are betting on fall below the sharp Asian lines”.

Pinnacle and SBOBET are both in the pool of bookmakers we have used to formulate the HDAFU Tables, and both are at or near the top of the Asian contingent when it comes to offering best odds/low margins.

But usually, these type of bookmakers are only top dogs on one or two of the 1X2 lines at a time, and very, very rarely best on all three odds at the same time.

Of course, the odds captured for use in the tables are a benchmark only. If you wish to lower the benchmark to match more closely a ‘middle range’ of bookmakers, then use the Odds Toggle function to reset results/expectations.

On the betting side, everyone naturally seeks to obtain the best odds they can buy.

Only by comparing the odds bought with the highest legitimate odds available at the time can you then say that a system is hampered by the list of bookmakers at your disposal.

Again, using the Odds Toggle function will help you decide whether you do have the ammunition with which to hit the targets created by your chosen inflection points.

Lastly, whilst agreeing with you about the great liquidity at places like Pinnacle and SBOBET, there is no connection between liquidity and ‘most accurate odds’. No single bookmaker can provide best price on any market (home, draw or away) all of the time. Each has to balance their portfolio, and prices for every betting option change constantly throughout the day with all bookmakers, especially quickly on more popular events.

Ultimately, we are dealing with a fluid market articulated by demand and supply, with necessary competition between bookmakers for market share. The likes of Pinnacle and SBOBET may turn over far greater amounts of money to gain the same net outcome as a middle-of-the-road bookie such as Ladbrokes – the same business model, just with different strategies.

In short, you don’t need to constantly beat Pinnacle or SBOBET odds – you will do it naturally anyway because bookies such as this are never best price on any one line all of the time.

I hope this helps.

16 October 2017 at 9:18 am #

Saturday was a glimpse of fresh hope with a few high odd bets winning, but Sunday ate up most of the profit again. So I am back to status quo. The favorites in Italy and France are a complete disaster.

72. Scott
16 October 2017 at 10:14 am #

I had a winning weekend, 5 points up with 12 winning bets from 27 placed, which is more or less in line with the expected strike rate. 2 more bets likely today – one favourite, one underdog, so not yet certain what the end point for the weekend will be.

Obviously it’s way too early to be talking about a corner having been turned, but certainly the most enjoyable weekend I’ve had on this for a while. The fact that I’ve dropped stakes significantly means that the recovery in terms of £ value hasn’t been great, but I’ll take any win at this stage.

The adjustments that I’ve made to France Ligue 2 and Netherlands, in terms of chopping out teams that don’t work with the strategies has definitely helped stop the bleeding too.

• Right Winger
16 October 2017 at 2:40 pm #

Hi Scott,

Your results sound similar to ours, and like Jo above, several of our systems currently out of sync, are only a win or two away from being profitable.

Now that the international breaks are over, I fully expect things to settle down. For me, the acid test is the next 4-5 weeks. If the expected uniformity to proceedings does not return during this period, then I will have to make decisions on the dysfunctional systems.

I wonder whether it might be the early start to most of the winter leagues (for WC 2018), which has caused the stuttering start to this season? It will certainly be something I will look at once the end of the season arrives.

73. Audiendi
16 October 2017 at 1:06 pm #

I’m sorry to hear that the betting isn’t going well.

May I ask if you use the value calculator to calculate the odds of each bet (in your portfolio) before you placing the bet?

• jo
16 October 2017 at 4:45 pm #

Hi Audiendi,

No. Someone asked your question before in some article and answer from Right Winger was HDAFU tables and value calculator have different approaches of what to bet on. As far as I remember Soccerwidow is going to release 1X2 betting course, like O/U course. Before that and before you learn everything in it I don’t think it’s a good idea to use them both. If you read O/U course, there is a chapter under this name: “Everything that glitters is not gold” i.e. not every bet marked as “value” bet by the calculator is truly a value bet. I doubt if it will be a good idea to use them both anyway. It’s probably better to filter out teams that perform too bad consistently in any system and this should be value in the long run.

• Audiendi
17 October 2017 at 3:54 am #

Hi Jo,

I saw that response. What I’m getting at is…

If things aren’t going well with the portfolio, why not use the value calculator now and then just as an extra precaution.

It may be a bit arduous to use it on the entire portfolio. But, for instance, why not use it for the high risk bets? Might be able to improve the hit rate.

• acepoint
22 October 2017 at 12:20 pm #

Hi Audiendi,

VC and HDAFU are totally different attempts. VC is used for a single match and is based on short-term home and away team history plus H2H results. HDAFU is based on league odds and only works in a long-term strategy.

You can’t compare both strategies and you also can’t use VC to confirm or deny a single game in the HDAFU.

• Audiendi
23 October 2017 at 1:20 pm #

Hi acepoint,

But isn’t one of the main purposes of the HDAFU tables to identify value in bets in the long run?

I might be completely wrong about this. I have purchased the value calculator, which I test on random matches now and then, but I haven’t bought the HDAFU tables yet. So if I’m missing the point completely, I apologise.

From what I have learnt, I would be rather surprised if you can’t use the value calculator INDEPENDENTLY to test out individual bets in your portfolio which have already been selected on the basis of the HDAFU tables.

If a bet has value, wouldn’t both tools discern that the bet has value?

As I understand it, one tool is simply more precise (but laborious to use) than the other. Can they not be used in tandem to some extent in order to sharpen the edge that you get?

Why not try this. Provisionally, pick all your bets with the HDAFU tables. Then, if a particular system is doing very poorly (e.g. favourites), why not cross-check the bets you’ve chosen with the value calculator before placing them?

I’m no scientist. My understanding of scientific practice is, however, that it is built upon testing hypotheses (e.g. bets) with multiple tools to gain an idea of if there is a large amount of corroborating evidence or conflicting evidence.

74. Scott
23 October 2017 at 2:08 pm #

I’ve got both the VC and the HDAFU tables. My interpretation is that the HDAFU tables allow you to identify a particular strategy with inherent value – for this odds range, the bookmakers have been systematically mis-pricing over the course of the past 5 seasons as the strike rate achieved exceeds that implied by the odds.

However, in order for the HDAFU approach to work, once you have identified a strategy you need to place a bet on every single match that falls within the odds ranges defined by that strategy. Only then will you give yourself a chance of repeating the success that you’ve identified from past 5 seasons history.

Introducing the value calculator as an overlay would mean intentionally skipping certain matches, but these might be the very matches that end up making that strategy a success in the current season.

Remember, you’ve identified your HDAFU strategies as being successful without the use of the VC. If you then introduce the VC in your live season, you’re no longer following the strategy that you’ve identified.

It’s an interesting idea though.

• Audiendi
24 October 2017 at 11:02 am #

Hey Scott,

I agree that if the use of the value calculator forces you to deviate from the strategy prescribed by the HDAFU tables, then that simply defeats the purpose of that tool. And I agree the HDAFU tables are profitable The general premise is very sound.

But within the systems you use, based on those HDAFU tables, are there not ample instances where you have to choose between multiple bets?

So, for example, suppose one of the systems you use is the Germany – Underdogs, as our fellow contributor to this blog Simon uses. Suppose, each round the bettor places two bets in this system as part of their portfolio. There will only be certain number of bets which are suitable (as per the guidance of the HDAFU tables) each round for this system. But is it uncommon to find only two bets suitable?

Or would the HDAFU help you identify more than two bets which might be suitable and you simply have to choose two? As I haven’t started using the tables, I can’t say.

If you’ve only got two bets out of two bets to choose from, then fat lot of good the value calculator does.

But if the HDAFU tables suggest you have a reasonable choice of, say, 4 bets… well that’s where the value calculator might be useful.

Does that make sense?

75. Scott
23 October 2017 at 2:39 pm #

I hope things have turned around for people on here btw. I’ve been profitable the last two weekends (+5 points last weekend, +3 so far this weekend with the possibility of one bet to go on this evening).

42.9% strike rate this weekend, which again is broadly in line with expectations.

Obviously a long way to go to turn things around, but it at least feels like things have started to settle down. There was even a draw in Ligue 2 ffs….! Serie A and Ligue 1 look to finally be pulling their weight too from a low risk strategy perspective, although Turkey is still all over the shop.

Anyway, hopefully others are starting to see an improvement too.

• Simon
24 October 2017 at 11:35 am #

Scott,

Last week for me was a good week, registering like you, about 5 units of profit. Unfortunately this week has seen a loss of 1 point so far, although I have a few remaining bets for the Serie A and Jupiler league to go. The last 2 weeks have been more stable it seems, although the La Liga Underdog system, Eridivisie draw system and Turkey Super Lig favorite system are still the main culprits in that it’s just lose, lose, lose with those systems.

Anyway, its encouraging that things have stabilized over the last 2 weeks. Hope this continues for everyone involved.

In terms of the Value Calculator vs the HDAFU tables, for me they do different things – look at value in different ways. The HDAFU tables really focus in on long term historical profitable strategies, picking out odds ranges where money can be made. So everything in that strategy needs to be bet on.

The value calculator looks at individual teams and recent performance across home/away games, with the head to head factor important. So it takes into consideration things the HDAFU tables do not do so specifically.

For me, validating the HDAFU system selections with the VC would bring into play too much conflict. I haven’t tried it out myself to validate each HDAFU system selection with the VC, so I couldn’t say if they would line up perfectly and both would confirm value bets on the same selection. If they did, that would be great, but where they were in conflict, how do you decide what to be on?

I wouldn’t be comfortable with mixing two strategies founded on different selection criteria. I would only want to use one or the other. The HDAFU tables prove what is profitable or not, and I’m not sure it is necessary to use outside means based on different methodology to improve the profitability or mitigate losing streaks.

I do have the value calculator, but personally found it too time consuming to use to generate enough bets. HDAFU tables for me take a lot of time out of the day to day analysis. So other than the initial studying required to compile the portfolio, all I need to do is place my bets.

Either way, whichever method someone uses, I hope it is profitable!

• Scott
24 October 2017 at 11:49 am #

Hi Simon – I managed to automate the value calculator to a certain extent. I still need to put in last week’s results, but once I do that if I select the home and away teams on the main VC page it’s formula-driven to pull back the last 25 home and away fixtures and the last 10 H2H matches for the 2 team. So it populates the Home, Away and H2H sheets automatically and by extension the main value calculator page gets auto-populated too.

It has a warning system in place too, so it tells you on the face of the calculator if there aren’t enough consecutive games or enough H2H match-ups in the last 10 years.

Took a while to do but it certainly shaves some time off the work required to get an answer out of the VC. I’ve got different VCs set up for each different league.

Anyway, back to the HDAFU stuff – you’re probably loath to make any changes at this point, but rather than underdogs in La Liga, I went with Away teams as a strategy and it’s proving to be one of my most profitable strategies. Like I say, you might not want to make any changes, but thought I’d mention it just in case.

Netherlands and Turkey have been a shitshow for me too, although I’ve managed to stop a lot of the bleeding on the former by eliminating a couple of teams from the strategy and refining the odds range slightly. It’s still losing though – I’m planning to swap strategies for the second half of the season in Netherlands….it can’t come quick enough! Turkey…I mean last Friday when Goztepe were 3-1 up with 10 minutes to go, I thought surely this one is in the bank. 3-3. Unreal haha!

• Audiendi
24 October 2017 at 12:29 pm #

Hey Simon,

Very good point. Great if it works but if there’s conflict then what to do?

Maybe just go with whichever options appear to be the least worst within the system.

76. Scott
24 October 2017 at 11:39 am #

Hi there – the “choice” is prescribed by the odds range that you’ve identified as being profitable. I also employ an underdogs system in Germany, but whether or not I place a bet is determined entirely by whether the odds of the underdog at kick off fall into the identified range or not.

If it does, I place the bet. If not, I don’t. There isn’t really a choice to be made beyond that. Some weeks there might be 5 or 6 matches that qualify, other weeks only one or two, it’s driven entirely by that week’s match-ups.

There’s certainly the possibility that there are underdogs elsewhere in that week’s fixtures, outside of the HDAFU strategy, which the value calculator would identify as being value bets, but that’s really a separate issue.

I think there might be a misunderstanding here as to how the HDAFU approach works – you don’t really get a “choice” of bets. You get teams that fall within the odds range that week (in which case you place the bet) and you get teams that don’t (no bet). There’s no further refinement to be made for which the value calculator could be employed.

Hope that makes sense..?

• Audiendi
24 October 2017 at 12:24 pm #

Hey Scott,

Yes, that makes perfect sense.

Your write… ‘I think there might be a misunderstanding here as to how the HDAFU approach works – you don’t really get a “choice” of bets. You get teams that fall within the odds range that week (in which case you place the bet) and you get teams that don’t (no bet).’

I reckon I get the gist of it. What I’m saying is WHERE you have a greater number of options (which, that week, fall within the odds range) THAN the number of bets your system prescribes you place, why not use the value calculator to decide which bets to choose ?

As you say, some weeks/systems, there may be no options. The number of suitable bets may be no greater than the number of bets your system suggests you place for that week. But that won’t always be the case. And that’s where I reckon the value calculator might be useful.

But I take on board the point that Simon made that presumably it will lead to conflict.

E.g. suppose the HDAFU tables suggested that the odds offered for four matches were good to place bets on for a particular system. Then you used the value calculator to work out which two to go with and it showed that none of those possible four bets had value.

• Daniel
25 October 2017 at 11:01 am #

Hi Audiendi,

from what i understand you are suggesting to use the Value Calculator as an additional filtering tool to cherry pick the games to bet on… spot profitable ranges with the HDAFU tables, then using the Value Calculator on the games that falls into said range to perform an individual analysis, and decide if bet or not. Is that correct? That could be a viable road to take… i mean, our goal is to spot value on the bookies pricing. Using two different tools could indeed give us a further edge. Think about fighting a battle where to win we have to make money. I imagine the HDAFU table as the heavy artillery, and the value calculator as the snipers who’s job is to clean the battlefield picking “profitable loner targets”. Did you give this strategy a shot? I would be very interested in hearing further thoughts about it. I guess i will test something myself and let you know on what i can achieve (on paper).

• Audiendi
25 October 2017 at 12:12 pm #

Hey Daniel,

You’ve summed it up perfectly. And I think the military analogy is a good one.

I’m yet to put the combination of HDAFU combined with the value calculator into practice myself. Truth be told, I haven’t started placing bets yet (or bought any HDAFU tables yet). I just try the value calculator here and there and I try to learn as much as I can about the whole thing in general.

But I follow these blogs keenly. It’s great to hear when people do well, but when there are sustained losing streaks, it’s disheartening. So I figured I might as well throw it out there to you guys.

I really do like the idea of the precise knowledge which the value calculator can provide. Imo, there’s no such thing as ‘true’ odds. While it can’t give an exact answer (and while other things such as transfers and injuries have influence), I like to hope that the value calculator can provide the most accurate ‘approximate’ odds as can be compiled.

And I think the HDAFU tables are the brightest way of devising profitable betting systems.

If the two tools can be used to inform one’s knowledge of specific value bets, that surely has to be a good thing.

Please let me know how it goes.

77. jo
24 October 2017 at 8:08 pm #

My portfolio performed poorly again, worse than last week, “better” than disastrous weekend 3 weeks ago. 25% hit rate, 8 wins out of 32, but 7 wins won little. And I did not bet on 2 teams I decided to take out of my portfolio. Both teams lost. No signs of stability with my portfolio so far.

78. Daniel
25 October 2017 at 11:17 am #

Hey Jo,

sorry to hear that. Have you thought about cutting off some of the worst performing systems? I guess if they are showing a totally different trend from what was expected, there’s no point in continuing wasting money on them. Better to focus on the best performing ones, and the ones who you still think, realistically, could put some money in your bank. Analyze them one by one and cut the rotten branches. A perfect example would be ligue 2 draws. That system is doomed. I stopped to bet several weeks ago and it is still performing very bad. Other cases of bad systems in my previous portfolio were Netherlands draw and Austria underdogs. I would have cut them after that bad run we all had, no doubt about it. I know that theoretically they could still deliver some wins and mitigate the losses. But realistically, if a system is going totally out of control, i don’t think that particular strategy it’s reliable anymore.

• jo
25 October 2017 at 8:22 pm #

Hi Daniel,

yes, I did think about it, but it’s a big mental game that haunts me like what if they perform well all of a sudden? And well performing systems enter in a bad streak for a while?
It’s probably not the case with Ligue 2 which is almost certainly doomed to fail and odds range is too low to win losses back in a winning streak of 3-4 bets. Netherlands and Spain are tougher to decide because odds I bet are lower and can recover quickly even in a case of short winning streak. If I decide to cut them off and that streak happens then it would make me absolutely mad. Again I had a case like this in my summer campaign, when I cut off obviously failed system and then it had a winning streak of 6 bets straight away. I have 4 systems that fail badly, I would like to cut them of, especially 2 of them, but thinking “what if things turn around?” makes it very hard to decide. Even if I terminate all failing leagues my bank would be at around +2500, miles away from Right Wingers success at the same time last year. It looks like really unusual year for winter leagues, because my summer campaign is doing better and better. I even managed to run 2 systems concurrently in the 2nd half season of one league, and both systems are doing well, although there is a little bit left to bet, I expect them both ending up in profit.
Returning to winter campaign I consider maybe I pushed my risk too far since I have just 2 strategies that have more than 100 bets a season, lower data sample impose higher risk. Right Winger had 8 of them with more than 100 bets. However the one with more 100 bets per season is doomed Ligue 2, the second one is Ekstraklasa, which is doing well. Although summer campaign also has just 2 strategies with more than 100 bets per season and no problem.

• Daniel
25 October 2017 at 9:05 pm #

Hey Jo,

Glad to hear your summer campaign is going well! I believe this is indeed an unusual (and unfortunate) campaign, at least so far. It was indeed a very demoralizing run for many of us, but i think things are starting to improve all around the leagues. Surely we won’t be able to replicate RW campaign this season, but we could still see decent profits at the end of it. And we still have the second half, that is a complete different game!
Like RW said, maybe this anomaly was caused by the early start of the leagues due to the World Cup. It is also worth mentioning that the introduction of the VAR technology on the Bundesliga, Serie A and Portugal Primeira Liga can affects results as well.

Good luck with your campaign, I am on the verge of stopping the paper testing and resuming betting real money.

I feel (and hope) that the storm is over

• jo
25 October 2017 at 9:18 pm #

I thought about introduction of VAR too and because it’s just the first year of it in those leagues I’m pretty sure might have decent effect to our results. Right Winger, what is your opinion about introduction of VAR and effect to our results?

• acepoint
27 October 2017 at 9:47 am #

@Jo, @Daniel I think VAR has absolutely no impact, the decisions will level out themselves.

But I wonder how long e.g. in the Belgium League teams will score the decisive goal in injury time. I remember at least five games now. 😉

• Right Winger
31 October 2017 at 2:20 pm #

Hi Jo,

VAR is just another variable, like how strong the wind is blowing, or how vociferous the crowd support is.

It’s something that cannot be accounted for in odds setting – only the final result of the matches in question count, not how the result came about.

Personally, I wouldn’t lose any sleep over it – it will not affect anything connected with our use of historical stats in formulating a potentially successful system.

79. Daniel
25 October 2017 at 2:53 pm #

Hi Right Winger,

i have a question for you.
When, in your opinion, should be the right moment to plug off a poorly performing system from the portfolio? It is now clear that this first part of the season saw many systems underperforming, some of them became soon a disaster. I know this could be a matter of personal choice, but i would love if you could provide us a rough guide on the matter. Most of this systems continued to perform badly after most of us noticed it there was some problem with them. Cutting them before they could destroy a portfolio could really save a campaign. For what i see, when a system is doomed, is not hard to notice. Ligue 2 and Netherlands are two popular systems that falls in this category. I know that cutting a system too early could potentially prevent future profits, but as i said, the systems that were performing poorly from the very first weeks, are still performing the same way, none really catching up to what was expected.

I was thinking to use some kind of measurement. For example, capping the losses of a system to 10 units. I know some high risk systems can have longer losing streaks, but usually this systems have a limited number of games, and perhaps they can be an exception. But systems that have hundreds or so games, they can be dangerous if a very bad season happens. To keep it in a real life scenario, i don’t really see how Ligue 2 draws could recover from it’s tragedy. Cutting it weeks ago could have saved much money to many people (me included). And even if a system like this can recover in the future, i still see it a remote possibility. And honestly, i would prefer caution here, and direct my effort (and my money) on those systems who are maintaining their expectations.

So please, your thoughts on this would be really appreciated, by me and all the other users, i’m sure.

• Right Winger
31 October 2017 at 2:40 pm #

Hello Daniel,

There is no hard and fast rule about pulling a system that isn’t performing to expectations.

Personally speaking, I let everything go until the last match. Even if there is no hope of a profit in certain leagues, there is always the chance of some recovery to boost the bottom line. This chance is one that I never discard as it is important to the synergy of the campaign as a whole.

Of course, everyone is free to make decisions based on their own levels of security or adventure, and if a system is hemorraging money it is mentally easy to cut it from the roster.

But, if you are going to cut something, only do so if you have got to the stage that the number of estimated remaining betting opportunities will not provide the required respite, even if every single one of those potential bets were to win.

If you’re going to cut anything, then look more to the middle range of your systems. Cutting high risk or low risk systems will unbalance your portfolio, so always look at the effect that dropping a league will have on your overall risk profile.

Capping wins/losses is never as effective as being bold enough to bet on the nose every time.

Regarding Ligue 2, I am still sure the number of draws will pick up – even if the league does eventually record a six-season low, or a worse anomaly, there will still be draws between now and the end of the season to limit the damage to the portfolio as a whole.

Think in terms of statistics. Look at the draw percentages in the last five seasons. Look at the distribution of draws in each of those seasons. Each season has a similar number of draws but they are distributed randomly throughout the season. It’s just bad luck we’ve stumbled on the barren spell, which just so happens to be at the start of the season.

In summary, cutting the size of your portfolio reduces the synergy effect. Fewer betting opportunities generally means the rest of the portfolio has to work harder to fulfill the same expectations. Think twice before you do this.

80. acepoint
27 October 2017 at 1:02 pm #

A question to Right Winger (and maybe others):

Let’s assume pre-season you identify an odds interval for draw. Let’s also assume in the past five seasons the draw rate within this interval has been more or less steadily over and also within the seasons themselves. In first third of the current season you experience an abnormal low rate of draws.

What happens to the draw odds for future matches? They will probably go up as normal bettors won’t pay for relative low odds anymore. I guess, everybody involved in the inflection point strategy will know now, which league(s) I’m talking about.

But what are people doing, who made an inflection point strategy on a certain draw interval? Can they be more liberal for a while, putting money on matches slightly above their former interval?

• Simon
27 October 2017 at 2:04 pm #

Acepoint,

I know exactly which league you are talking about….our beloved Ligue 2.

To start the season the betting opportunities were plentiful with 4 perhaps 5 bets within the systems odds ranges each week. After a few weeks of the season, the draws as a percentage of the total results took a real nosedive. The draw odds now seem in most games to be way over the upper inflection point of the system. I don’t know if this is down to the fact that teams are just winning and losing, and thus odds are adjusted to reflect that certain teams have better winning records. The knock on of that is the betting opportunities have dried up considerably. Last week there was just 1 bet within the odds range of my system, and this week there looks to be just 1 bet too. That makes it harder and harder to claw back a deficit.

The season is one third complete, and so if we assume that the number of draws may increase as the season progresses to end up somewhere nearer historical averages (not necessarily equalling or bettering them), then perhaps the number of betting opportunities will increase per round too. As of now, with 26 rounds left to play, I’m not yet ready to give up on this system.

As for expanding the upper inflection point range, I don’t know about that. It would certainly increase the betting opportunities. The first thing that occurs to me though is any given season will unfold however it does, and no two seasons will be like for like, therefore odds will be set in some degree as per public perception. So if a particular team is winning every game, they will become shorter and shorter odds as the season progresses. I guess what I’m saying is that odds setting/pricing is dynamic and will change according to more recent form and public perception. I think this dynamism will be seen within the historical stats we use in the HDAFU tables to find our systems. So to tamper with that and expand odds ranges to pull in other games, well, maybe it could backfire.

Honestly, I don’t know….what I do know is that systems in a deficit will struggle to recover where the current number of bets per week will not get us anywhere near the projected number.

• Daniel
27 October 2017 at 7:05 pm #

Same thing happened in Greece. I had a draw system with an incredible hit rate, 8 draws out of 10 matches. The odds started to go down, and the betting opportunities became fewer. So i suppose this kind of odds behavior happened in past seasons too, and so every analysis from the tables will include a similar pattern.

So my suggestion is, whatever happens, stick to your inflection points.

• Right Winger
31 October 2017 at 4:58 pm #

Hi Acepoint (& Simon & Rado),

Yes, I know exactly what you mean.

In the Winter and Summer League Campaign spreadsheets you will also find systems that for varying reasons didn’t produce the estimated number of betting opportunities.

If any result is not happening in the frequency that it was expected, then bookmakers will tend to take advantage of this by increasing prices to entice punters into this black hole.

The inflection points intervals are based on historical statistics, and the stats as a whole may even include a similar trend to the one being experienced right now.

If you have set your inflection points on five seasons’ stats, then straying outside the boundaries is not recommended. Try and be consistent. Once draws begin to happen more often the prices will stabilise once again.

If you decide mid-term to bet outside your original parameters and into an unknown odds range, the time you have spent coming up with the strategy in the first place is a little pointless.

My recommendation would be to sit tight and ride out the lack of betting opportunities. If it’s going to be an anomalous season, you’ll be protected to some extent from the chaos by sticking, not twisting.

There will probably be other leagues in your portfolio where there are more betting opportunities than anticipated. Things will balance themselves out in the long run. Have faith and stick to your game plan.

29 October 2017 at 3:40 am #

The Hannover win and the Feyenoord draw patched things up a little bit today, with me seeing the first truly “good” day in 2 months. These two matches absorbed about 1/3 of the accumulated losses so far. When I look at things, two strategies stand out as the big problem so far: The draws in Ligue 2 (2/17 won), and the home wins in Australia (0/8 won). I think that the draws in Ligue 2 have totally collapsed, with not only the league setting a new record for the lowest number of draws in a season so far, but also this low number leading to a distorting of the odds, lifting them by more than 0.10 points across all bookmakers. This has moved a huge number of matches out of our pre-determined inflection points. My opinion is that Ligue 2 should be dropped, because these odd distortions have destroyed the statistical model. It’s impossible for this system to return any profit this season. The odds are not corresponding, the number of matches to bet will be totally different, etc.

82. Simon
29 October 2017 at 1:24 pm #

Good to hear this round of games has been positive for you so far.

I can’t say the same myself unfortunately – of 21 games bet, I have just 5 wins, so a hit rate just under 25%, totally unacceptable in the sense of what is required to make a profit.

The last 2 weeks were pretty good, allowing me to recover around 9 units of profit (based on my lowered stake amount). However, unless today bails me out, I stand to lose all of that and then some. So its the classic case of treading water here, a lot of effort for zero gain.

The Spanish underdog system I am running just cannot produce a winner and is absolutely my worst performing system. The turkish favourite system is also a terrible performer and is losing me money every week.

Ligue 2 has actually won the last 2 draws I placed bets on. Netherlands will be profitable this week regardless of the 1 bet on the table for that system today.

But the story is the same, there is no consistency with the hit rates. Volatility is high and that sees any recovery wiped out in the blink of an eye. Highly highly frustrating to say the least.

83. LeBo
30 October 2017 at 10:33 am #

Good Weekend…

Hope everything stabilizes from now on. I’m 7.22 point in plus with a yield of 1.5%. This campaign is an up and down…

84. Scott
30 October 2017 at 5:28 pm #

Good weekend here too. 5.33 points of profit. I’m absolutely furious to have missed a a qualifying bet in Russia this afternoon that went on to win.

That would have meant an 8 point weekend. Bah!

85. jo
30 October 2017 at 11:04 pm #

36 bets,13 wins, 36% hit rate, +350 units final result. Had I cut failing Netherlands it would’ve been a different story since it had 2 wins out of 3 and made 820 units profit. Spain keeps failing badly, 6 bets lost this weekend, only 6 bets won out of 51.

31 October 2017 at 7:42 am #

I also had a good week with 8 units profit. I hope this is not just a lucky spark and the good trend continues.

87. Simon
3 November 2017 at 10:50 pm #

Just a vent more than anything……

Another losing day for me. And to cap it off, it ends with another bet losing where the team i have the bet on is 2 goals ahead. The Spanish La liga is seriously frustrating the hell out of me. Haven’t won a bet there in a month, and the last 2 bets have lost where my team is 2 goals ahead…..I just cannot catch a break at all….

I am not kidding when I say that in my portfolio it gets in to double figures where I have suffered a losing bet when my team is ahead by 2 goals or more…add to that the lost bets due to injury time goals and I’m wondering if I’m just the unluckiest bloke alive! Frustrating thing is that I can’t even tell you when I have won a bet from a losing position….it probably has happened, but not often.

Had half the bets won where the team I was backing was 2 goals ahead, I would be in profit.
I’m one frustrated bettor at this moment!

88. jo
3 November 2017 at 11:30 pm #

+43 today and just because I skipped 1 team that lost. 2 bets lost in the last 10 minutes today. Would’ve been a good day.

89. Simon
4 November 2017 at 12:03 am #

Had Getafe won the game after leading by 2 goals at half time, the day for me would have been in profit. But yet again I’m down money on the first day of the game week and looking to claw back a deficit before I can make any progress towards reducing the already existing deficit.

It’s tough to take these bad bad losses when already down a considerable sum of cash. Me moaning and complaining about it won’t help matters or change results, but I really do feel like luck is just not with me at all in this campaign.

Thinking about my game weeks, since the horrendous run started in game week 5 of the campaign, almost EVERY Friday is a total disaster where I am in a hole before the bulk of the weekends games even begin. I would be very confident in saying that if I had simply not bet on Friday games I would be around break even for the campaign – that kinda tells you how bad Friday’s have been for me!

I’m looking at things now in mid November for many systems I have running that are losing badly, and they really need to start to winning NOW, as time for recovery is reducing – with the winter break being the end for these 1st half systems. I get the feeling La Liga is going to continue performing badly and end up losing me a lot of money….but I also worry that if I ditch it, it will start winning. So in a way I’m stuck with it for better or for worse.

Nevermind, I will take another bad day on the chin and plug away with the whole thing.

• Simon
4 November 2017 at 1:59 pm #

Wow, this kind of stuff really can’t be made up!

Kasimpasa leading Bursaspor 2-0 after 90 minutes. I have a bet on Kasimpasa. 2 goals for Bursaspor in injury time and I lose my bet.

Thats 3 times in a row now that has happened to me.

Seriously….I’m exceptionally close to throwing in the towel here…..

• Scott
5 November 2017 at 7:47 am #

I’ve had a similar weekend, Simon. First up, Dynamo Moscow concede in the last minute (3.75), then Getafe do the same (3.92), and then Kasimpasa (2.58).

I was dug out of a giant hole yesterday by Burnley beating Southampton (7.0), but am still down about 5 points for the weekend so far.

To be fair though, I’ve been on the beneficial end of a bunch of last minute equalisers and winners….I just tend to not remember/dwell on those as much as I do the last minute bet-busters!

Let’s just hope for better today, although looking at the day ahead I’m not sure there’s that many bets to be placed for my systems.

90. Simon
5 November 2017 at 2:50 pm #

Scott,

Yesterday was the final day of portfolio betting for me. A 15% hit rate means that the losses I recovered over the last 3 weeks are gone and further losses were incurred. My losses sit at around 40 units of my bankroll. This is after approx 500 bets – the point being, I have given this a very fair crack of the whip and been more than patient with it.

This week was game week 14 of the portfolio: after week 4 my profits were 24 units. From 24 to -40 shows a 64 unit loss in 10 weeks. That’s totally disastrous – especially as it was modeled on the risk profile of the very profitable example portfolio we were presented with.

I had in place good and profitable systems – but what can I do when for 10 weeks or more, the hit rate I see is 15%+ lower than expected. All one can do is watch their bankroll disappear slowly week by week. I put a stop loss in place, and the money is still disappearing.

All the best analysis in the world is no good if the hit rates conspire to kill your bankroll before they right themselves, and thats exactly what is happening here.

It really does seem to be a pipe dream to think we can make fortunes from this endeavour – at least thats what reality is showing me. It seems to me that it is pot luck that you pick the right systems in the first place. Systems can and will fail, and they will fail spectaularly; ligue 2, eridivisie, la liga, turkey to name a few. Like me, if you have a few of these running, they will add up and kill the bankroll.

It boils down to this for me, I spend my weekends checking odds portal, placing bets, checking results…for absolutely no reward. Add to that getting further wound up because being in losing position I’m seeing 2 goal leads being blown and losing me more money…..and its just not worth the time or effort. I could be doing plenty of other fruitful things.

I think when betting begins to impact your real life and become a chore, then its time to knock it on the head. So that’s what I’m doing. This is a complete waste of time. Which I’m surprised to be saying as before the season began I had very high hopes for this endeavour. It wasn’t to be.

Good luck to all for the rest of the season. I hope those that are currently losing get some of that back.

Thanks to Right Winger for the assistance along the way.

Take care guys.

5 November 2017 at 7:11 pm #

I had an absolutely incredible weekend. About 10 units profit and almost all losses erased. The draws in Netherlands have really picked up as of lately. The favorites in Italy are winning. I also had 2 pretty high odd wins in Poland. Burnley’s win also brought big profits. The only systems that continue to be disastrous are the Ligue2 draws, the favorites in Switzerland and the home wins in Australia. The other 10 of my 13 systems are not so bad as of now. To sum it up, that’s a second week in a row with a respectable profit for me. I SINCERELY HOPE it’s not just a coincidence and the good hitrate continues. Right now I am sitting at 31,5% hitrate out of 38,9% projected, which is not incredibly good, but is a huge improvement over the 19% hitrate I was at 3-4 weeks ago. Now I am a little bit below zero balance from when I started 2 months ago. Given the fact I was at one time over 20 units down, that’s also an enormous improvement. Maybe there’s hope.

92. jo
5 November 2017 at 10:05 pm #

14 wins out of 36, 38.88% hit rate, +1224 units profit this weekend. Didn’t have a weekend like this for almost 3 months and it’s 2nd profitable weekend in a row. One of the worst performers Netherlands almost recovered in just 2 weekends. Ligue 2 won 3 bets this weekend out of 4 with 1 estimated bet tomorrow. The biggest pain at the moment remains Spain being at whopping -3052, 11 bets lost in a row and making 65% of my losses. Denmark won 3 bets out of 5 and sliced losses from -1005 to -549.

93. Corner
6 November 2017 at 1:14 am #

First of all thanks to all that you are posting the performance of your winter campaign.

It helped me because i was wondering if do something wrong. We all play different Systems, but the tendency is the same.

I have 17 Systems. I placed 600 bets so far and my hitrate is 30,27 %. The Forecast Hitrate is 39,69 % I am down – 46 points.

The same feeling for me like Simon on Saturday evening. I had the longest loosing streak ever of 15 games in a row. From Friday to Saturday 2 wins out of 21. On Saturday evening i was down to -61 points. I decided a last investement to bring my credit to 75 points.

On Sunday i made a profit of + 15 points. This weekend is +-0.

The last 5 weeks i lost -4 points. The 5 weeks before i lost -42 points. So i can see an improvement.

The problem are the big odds. With odds above 4,0 i have lost -54 points. With odds From 1,5 to 3,99 i have won +8 points.

I place an average of 45 bets on a weekend. When i read your posts i see the most people have around 30 bets. Maybe i have to much Systems at the moment with a tendency that is so far away from the last 5 years.

What worries me the most ?

I checked my systems in the last 5 years. In the worst year in early November there was a profit of + 130 points. I am so far away from that.

94. Scott
6 November 2017 at 11:32 am #

Your weekend sounds a lot like mine, Corner.

Halfway through Saturday, I was staring down the barrel of a weekend that was about to undo all the progress made in the previous few weeks.

By the end of Sunday it had all been recovered and I found myself 1 point up.

95. Thechump
12 November 2017 at 10:20 pm #

Hi,

I’ve been reading the website and wondered whether I have missed the reasoning for the selection of 5 season for the data sample. Having studied some leagues in the past, there is a degree of variation in consistency of results. Would the selection system cope with a 6 season analysis in one league and a 7 season analysis in another? Or would this work against the synergy that is the goal?

• Right Winger
14 November 2017 at 9:35 am #

Hello Thechump,

Five seasons’ data provide enough historical results for a ‘significant’ sample size.

Using more results is unnecessary because:

1) Accuracy is enough with five seasons and adding more only increases the workload (in collecting stats and analysing them), without adding any greater levels of statistical significance. For example, have a look at the Goal Distribution article to see how similar the distribution curves are, season upon season. It’s the law of diminishing returns as, using more and more seasons of data, brings less added benefit to the analysis.

2) The further back in time you look, the less relevant the results become to the current or forthcoming season. Turnover of teams via promotion and relegation creates more and more statistical noise, skewing results of the analysis.

In short, snapshots using five seasons’ data are enough. We don’t need more. Thanks for your question – I hope the answer is self-explanatory.

96. Thechump
14 November 2017 at 9:00 pm #

Thanks for your swift response Right Winger. Yes, your response makes sense. I always believed that the larger the data sample, the more accurate the probability model would be. I can now see that the changes to a league makeup could have an effect. Did you experiment with shorter/longer periods when reaching your conclusion of 5 seasons or was this a gut feeling starting point for you?

• Right Winger
21 November 2017 at 4:02 pm #

Yes, we did experiment with various analyses. Even to the point of recording how many teams would be making at least their sixth consecutive appearance in the forthcoming season; in other words, what percentage of teams’ statistics would be made up of five whole seasons prior (i.e. five season ever-present teams).

Visually, some leagues’ data have a ‘consistency’ percentage in the 70’s or 80’s (e.g. U.S.A. M.L.S. = no relegation), which you might think could be construed as an indicator of a more regular data set. Other leagues of a similar size can drop into the 30’s (e.g. Ligue 2 = promotion and relegation). But, despite this gulf between the team-make-up of the M.L.S. and Ligue 2, results in those leagues are still surprisingly consistent in themselves, if vastly different from each other.

In the M.L.S. over the five seasons 2013-17, home wins averaged 51.71%, draws 25.88%, and away wins 22.41%. The variance of each of these five seasons from the average is less than +/-4% for the home win, less than +/-6% for draws, and less than +/-4% for the away win. In Ligue 2 between 2012-17, the home win variance was just over +/-3%, less than +/-2% for draws, and less than +/-4% for the away win. Maths is not an exact science, but this is close enough.

The M.L.S. figures are probably ‘spikier’ because their league has gradually expanded in numbers during this time whilst the French has retained the consistency of its composition throughout.

Taking the French as an example, if we looked at larger and larger numbers of data, all we would see is a similar pattern to the one we already see using just the last five seasons’ figures. And besides, the relevancy of the results decays the longer back we look in time. Five is therefore enough to form a snapshot significantly accurate enough for our needs. Anything less than five is not enough in our opinion.

I hope this helps in some small way.