S T O R E – Soccerwidow http://www.soccerwidow.com Football Betting Maths, Value Betting Strategies Sun, 26 Feb 2017 11:21:12 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.7.2 2017 Summer League HDAFU Tables – For Sale! http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/2017-summer-league-1x2-tables/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/2017-summer-league-1x2-tables/#respond Mon, 20 Feb 2017 01:14:43 +0000 http://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=5823 more »]]> The 5th Generation of HDAFU Tables is Here!

We had a breakthrough in our thinking last year so we experimented with the idea.

Knowing from experience that the first and second halves of a football match are usually played in very different circumstances, we extended the idea to leagues as a whole.

Analysing a season’s results (or a set of them together) naturally gives only a blend of what has happened during the whole season. Splitting the analysis into halves makes far more sense. After all, so many leagues have winter breaks, or mid season intervals, and many of those leagues without a recognised break have a natural break in their programmes. The break is so long in certain leagues (e.g. Russia) that their season might just as well be two separate seasons.

We therefore decided to split the HDAFU tables (Home-Draw-Away-Favourites-Underdogs) into three separate tables per league. One showing the five season whole season picture, the next showing the first half season results (before the break), and the last showing the second half season results (after the break).

The results were staggering and showed quite clearly the distinctive trends of each half season as opposed to the whole season blend. We decided to put our theory to the test and embarked on what turned out to be a hugely successful betting campaign.

Buy Your Tables Here!

Open the scroll down list and click a league to highlight it.
Click on the Add to Cart button to include the item in your shopping basket.
When you are ready to checkout, add your discount code (coupon code) if applicable (see multiple purchase discounts below), and click on Update Cart to register your discount.
Enter your personal details before clicking Continue Checkout at the bottom of the window.
You will then be given a choice of paying with PayPal or your credit card (via Stripe).
Contact us if you wish to pay via Skrill, Neteller or bank transfer.
Upon payment, download links for the files you have purchased will be automatically sent to your email address.


Summer Leagues 2012-16 – FULL-TIME (FT) – Excel.XLSX:

Buy Now!

PRICE: £33.00 GBP Per League

Prices are net prices ex VAT (Value Added Tax).
EU VAT rates will be added on the checkout page according to your location if in Europe.
If you would like to avoid EU VAT, please read the note below this box.

Soccerwidow Ltd is obliged, in accordance with applicable law, to charge VAT
on sales of digital products and services to customers within the European Union (EU).
Read more: EU VAT Information

The following discounts apply for multiple purchases:
Buy 5, 6, 7, 8 or 9 leagues = 20% Discount (coupon code: SW20)
Buy 10 leagues = 30% Discount (10 for the price of seven) (coupon code: SW30)
Buy 11 or more leagues = 35% Discount (coupon code: SW35)

Please contact us (sales[at]soccerwidow[dot]com) should you have any questions regarding checkout and payment. For further clarification about the HDAFU tables please use the comment function below.

Should any of the above codes not work for any reason (It’s Javascript and some browsers may prevent the lightbox opening) please use the basic version of the cart to purchase your HDAFU Simulation Tables

The tables for sale are in Excel .XLSX format. Should you require a different format,
please feel free to get in touch with us by email.


What You Now Get for Your Money

Instead of the usual one HDAFU table per league, you now get three.

However, the price per league is still sensible at £33.00 each. (Effectively £11.00 per table as opposed to the old style tables at £24.90 each).

The new style tables presented here are also optimised for filtering.

Our recommendation is for a set of systems in several leagues, enough to provide you with a portfolio of at least 500 bets in a season. You’ll then have a chance of emulating our 2016 campaign.

How to Avoid EU VAT:

We are only obliged by law to charge EU VAT if you buy our digital products via our online platform (i.e. through this website).

If you are in Europe and you would like to avoid EU VAT, we can handle your purchase manually. Email us (in English, Spanish, German, French, or Russian) at this email address stating which products you would like to buy and how you would like to pay for them. For manual transactions we accept PayPal, Skrill, Neteller, and bank transfer (EFT).

If you wish to pay by credit card, then the only current method is via the online platform where VAT will be charged.

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Sports Betting Course – Over/Under Goals – Product Specifics http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/sports-betting-course-over-under-product-specifics/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/sports-betting-course-over-under-product-specifics/#comments Sun, 20 Nov 2016 05:41:09 +0000 http://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=5601 more »]]> Fundamentals of Sports Betting (Betting on Over/Under ‘X’ Goals) is unlike any other book you will find elsewhere. It contains insights into how mathematics and statistics are applied to bookmaking, information that is rarely (if at all) found in the public domain.

Have you ever wondered how bookmakers set their odds? They must be pretty good at it to remain trading in a high risk industry built on small margins!

Cartoon: Blindfolded people walk precariously close to the edge of a cliffRemember folks it’s all about finding the “edge”.

Image: Cartoonresource (Shutterstock)

It is common knowledge that the gambling industry as a whole relies to a large extent on the ignorance of its customers and, only by understanding how bookmakers think and act, will you ever be able to compete with them on a level playing field.

The Most Valuable Book About Betting You Will Ever Buy!

This course is designed to give you the essential, fundamental knowledge necessary to understand odds calculation and the bookmaker market.

It deals with relatively simple descriptive statistics and teaches you how to look at data sets, calculate your own probabilities and odds, analyse the market odds on offer, and make informed decisions when predicting football results.

Amongst the topics you will work through are distributions, deviations, graphs and charts, odds calculation, financial terminologies, risk management, and of course, how to identify ‘value’ in the betting market.

You will gain a deep understanding of the many different elements required to understand the bookmaker market and odds calculation. Many false beliefs that the majority of gamblers and fans of football have about betting will be exposed and stripped away.

Readers will also be enlightened to learn about how odds are set in the market, where to find ‘errors’ in market prices, how to evaluate data and graphs, and much, much more.

What Do You Get For The Money?

The course comes in electronic format and the bundle includes the course book (PDF*) and a Bundesliga cluster table (Excel) for studying. This course employs a didactic method of teaching, which is an educational technique. It is a very structured style of learning and as such, each section of the course should be mastered before moving on to the next.

To further encourage you to learn, there is a plethora of exercises to practice what you have learned, and the solutions to the exercises are found at the end of the book, sometimes embellished with further explanations.

All of the course lessons are presented in a pragmatic, easy-to-follow, step-by-step fashion, with no more than passing respect towards the sport of football and the passion of its fans. After all, this book has been written by a lady who loves maths but dislikes football…!

In addition, you will receive the very latest Bundesliga table for the current season, so that you can put into practice what you have learned and within the course, you will find a discount code enabling you to download for free the German Bundesliga sheet in future seasons, meaning that you will always have access to the most current Bundesliga cluster table, forever: it doesn’t matter when you bought the course.

*By the way, the PDF is a professionally formatted document and if you have a double-sided printer you can print your own book for studying.

Fundamentals of Sports Betting
Course with Cluster Tables for the German Bundesliga
Over/Under ‘X’ Goals

PRODUCT SUMMARY

Fundamentals of Sports Betting - book cover
  • Format: PDF & XLS
  • Download Size: Course (PDF): 5.2 MB & Excel file: 782 KB
  • Publisher: Soccerwidow Ltd; 2nd Edition (July 2016)
  • Pages: 169 (almost 38,000 words)
  • Tables and graphs: 70
  • Example tasks: more than 80 (with solutions)
  • Language: ENGLISH

Only £59.00*

* 0% VAT to UK customers, 0% VAT to Non-EU customers     Read more: EU VAT Legislation    


>>> read an excerpt from the book <<<



PDF document professionally styled for easy reading and printing

For traditionalists, the PDF has been professionally formatted for double-sided printing. If you like, you can print your book in full-colour with a cover and add slick spiral binding.

Those who prefer to read the document on their computers will find the chosen font (Myriad Pro) easy to read on the screen. Myriad Pro has a clean sans-serif aesthetic which makes it highly accessible.

The electronic version also contains a plethora of easy-to-navigate links to help the learner find his way around the document.

Contents at a Glance

Section A: Basic Knowledge

Probability, Betting Odds, Value, Yield, Profitability

Basic Statistical Terminology

  • Goal Distribution and Percentage Calculation
  • Deviation from the Mean
  • Standard Deviation – The Main Measure of Variability
  • Precision, Trueness and Accuracy

Betting Odds Calculation

  • Probability and Betting Odds
  • Opening Betting Odds Range
  • Calculation of ‘Zero’ (Fair) Odds

Risk Management Control

  • Financial Terms: Yield, ROI and Profitability
  • Risk Forecasting and Evaluation: Value of a Trade (Bet)
  • Preventative Measures: Setting the Starting Bank

Section B: Developing a Betting Strategy

Market Dynamics, Cluster Groups and Betting Tables

Market Dynamics

  • Betting Odds are Prices of Bets
  • Falling Odds represent Price Increase
  • Bookmakers adjust Betting Odds to Public Opinions

Building of Cluster Groups

  • What are Cluster Groups?
  • Clustering Depending on ‘Strength’ of the Team

Betting Tables: Over/Under ‘X’ Goals

  • Goal Distribution by Team
  • Team Calculation Tables
  • Standard Deviation Tables
  • Using Calculation Tables to Determine Betting Odds

Finding Value Bets

  • Everything that Glitters is not Gold
  • Method I: Value Betting using Cluster Group Tables
  • Method II: Value Betting using the Value Calculator
  • Cluster Groups, Value Calculator and Bets Identification


>>> frequently asked questions <<<


…or ask any questions in the comment section below.

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1×2 Betting: 2016-17 Profit/Loss Simulation Tables http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/hda-1x2-betting-profit-loss-simulation-tables/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/hda-1x2-betting-profit-loss-simulation-tables/#comments Wed, 27 Jul 2016 17:37:32 +0000 http://soccerwidow.com/?p=4891 more »]]>

Buy the 4th Generation of HDAFU Tables – Now only £12.00 each!

Soccerwidow’s Home-Draw-Away-Favourite-Underdog simulation tables are a revolutionary way of looking at a large data set to immediately see profitable 1×2 areas, enabling you to filter the results for precision betting.

The traditional home, draw, away Profit/Loss simulations are supplemented by a complete overview of the favourite and underdog markets, plus separate tables for the favourite playing at home or away and the underdog playing at home or away. The tables also include visualisations of inflection points, a very powerful tool for finding consistently profitable segments.

This unique product also breaks down results into odds clusters and odds ratios. There are more than 100 different simulations per league, providing clear guidance for what to back or lay, and what to avoid.

Buy Your Tables Here!

Open the scroll down list and click a league to highlight it.
Click on the Add to Cart button to include the item in your shopping basket.
When you are ready to checkout, add your discount code (coupon code) if applicable (see multiple purchase discounts below), and click on Update Cart to register your discount.
Enter your personal details before clicking Continue Checkout at the bottom of the window.
You will then be given a choice of paying with PayPal or your credit card (via Stripe).
Contact us if you wish to pay via Skrill, Neteller or bank transfer.
Upon payment, download links for the files you have purchased will be automatically sent to your email address.


Winter Leagues 2011-16 – FULL-TIME (FT) – Excel.XLSX:

Buy Now!

PRICE: Now Only £12.00 GBP Per League

Prices are net prices ex VAT (Value Added Tax).
EU VAT rates will be added on the checkout page according to your location if in Europe.
If you would like to avoid EU VAT, please read the note below this box.

Soccerwidow Ltd is obliged, in accordance with applicable law, to charge VAT
on sales of digital products and services to customers within the European Union (EU).
Read more: EU VAT Information

The following discounts apply for multiple purchases:
Buy 5, 6, 7, 8 or 9 leagues = 20% Discount (coupon code: SW20)
Buy 10 leagues = 30% Discount (10 for the price of seven) (coupon code: SW30)
Buy 11 or more leagues = 35% Discount (coupon code: SW35)

Please contact us (sales[at]soccerwidow[dot]com) should you have any questions regarding checkout and payment. For further clarification about the HDAFU tables please use the comment function below.

Should any of the above codes not work for any reason (It’s Javascript and some browsers may prevent the lightbox opening) please use the basic version of the cart to purchase your HDAFU Simulation Tables

The tables for sale are in Excel .XLSX format. Should you require a different format,
please feel free to get in touch with us by email.


To Avoid EU VAT:

We are only obliged by law to charge EU VAT if you buy our digital products via our online platform (i.e. through this website).

If you are in Europe and you would like to avoid EU VAT, we can handle your purchase manually. Email us (in English, Spanish, German, French, or Russian) at this email address stating which products you would like to buy and how you would like to pay for them. For manual transactions we accept PayPal, Skrill, Neteller, and bank transfer (EFT).

If you wish to pay by credit card, then the only current method is via the online platform where VAT will be charged.


Screenshots from the EPL HDA Simulation Table



The Power of the Home, Draw, Away, Favourite and Underdog Simulation Tables

Each table contains the following Profit/Loss simulations for backing Home wins, Draws, Away wins, Favourite and Underdog betting:

  • from an Individual Team perspective (when playing at home or, playing away)
  • by Odds Clusters (home odds, draw odds, away odds)
  • by carefully selected Odds Ratios (favourites or underdogs at home or away, similarly matched teams, etc.)
  • by Inflection Point Graphs for home, draw, away, favourite and underdog odds

Individual teams or odds clusters, which have been traditionally, intentionally, or accidentally over- or under-priced by the bookmakers will become evident and you will definitely notice patterns and opportunities for adding selections to your existing betting portfolio or when creating a new betting system.

Each workbook is interactive allowing you to insert your own Staking Levels. Tailoring further for individual needs, the tables include an Odds Toggle option for each bet type.

There are also Commission Rate Toggles allowing you to enter the level charged by your favoured betting exchange or broker.

>>> buy your hdafu tables <<<



Frequently Asked Questions

Is there a time restriction on the usefulness of the HDAFU tables?

The tables simulate the profits and losses by betting type for the last five complete seasons if choosing the same bet type for every game of the season. Therefore, the ‘natural’ cut-off point is the end of the following season when the tables have to be re-calibrated.

Simulating the profit/losses when betting on the same outcome over the last five seasons, the tables show a picture of the likely (expected) distribution for the forthcoming season.

If the bettor chooses a distribution which is equally spread over the year (e.g. away underdogs in the German Bundesliga with odds between 4.0 and 17.0), then it doesn’t really matter when the systematic betting starts.

The HDAFU tables are a great help at any time throughout the season to provide focus upon profitable areas within your chosen league and allow you to refine your final bet selections.

Further reading:
Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage: Explained
Avoid Placing Bets at the Start of Season

What is the relationship between the HDAFU tables and the Value Bet Detector?

The HDAFU tables simulate profit/losses when betting systematically on one specific outcome, e.g. backing the favourite playing away. The Value Bet Detector is an odds and probability calculation tool for particular matches of interest.

Both tools originate from the time when I (Soccerwidow) wrote match previews for Betfair and needed to identify games containing value bets so that I could analyse them and publish profitable picks.

The HDAFU tables were developed as a tool to recognise clusters of matches that were far more likely to contain value bets, and thus provide me with filtered sets of matches to preview.

I often receive questions such as, “Can the HDAFU tables and the Value Calculator support each other?” or, “What is the relevance of the HDAFU tables?” or, “Which methodology is better?”

Ultimately, both products are tools for odds calculation and understanding the betting market. The Value Bet detector is an analysis tool for individual matches, the HDAFU simulation tables can also be used for systematic betting in larger numbers.

Further reading:
How do Bookmakers Tick? How & Why do they Set Their Odds as they do?
How Bookmakers’ Odds Match Public Opinion

How to structure a portfolio and what is the best size for it?

“A portfolio is a package of bets where extensive analysis has determined the choices (picks)… This is an essential part of the whole betting strategy in order to reduce the risks of losing by diversifying.”

Now focus on the main expressions: extensive analysis… determined choices… whole betting strategy… reduce risks… and lastly… diversifying.

Actually, there is nothing more to say. Just spend some quality thinking time on it.

It totally depends on personal preferences, on the availability of betting markets to you, on your risk awareness, your understanding of probabilities and statistics, and finally using all of this combined knowledge to make your best personal judgement, never losing sight of the fact that the bottom line is making profits.

Further reading:
Calculating Odds for League Newcomers is Unpredictable
1×2 Football Betting – How to Compile a Winning Portfolio

Are the HDAFU tables for both, back betting and lay betting?

Yes. Although the HDAFU tables directly simulate what happened from a backing perspective over the last five seasons, they are obviously reversible and provide a sound benchmark for formulating lay betting strategies.

Large positive figures and rising curves within the tables indicate promising back betting opportunities, whilst large negative falling curves point to potential lay strategies.

The HDAFU tables come with an odds toggle as well as an exchange commission toggle so that the user can adjust the base figures where necessary – This is of great importance to those wishing to accurately analyse lay strategies.

Don’t forget that betting exchange odds are often ‘higher’ than the highest bookmaker odds and, of course, have a built-in commission surcharge levied by the exchange platform. The effects of these variables can be gauged using the toggle functions within each HDAFU table.

Further reading:
1×2 Betting System: Analysis of HDA Data and Strategy Development – LAY THE DRAW
1X2 Betting System – Staking the Underdog

Why is concentrating on bet types more profitable than betting on teams?

The answer to this question is simple psychology, which often defeats the average punter.

There are millions of people who follow one or another team. They read all the news available, discuss form, players and managers, and everything else there is to think about when a match involving “their” team is coming up.

There are plenty of “must win” situations, and even if the odds seem a little short, bets are still placed on the team they support to win the game. Both reliance on luck and a lot of hope goes into each game.

Unfortunately, gut feelings are a very wrong adviser and team news also has no relevance to the ‘true odds’ of a game; little wonder that there are more losing punters than winners.

The HDAFU tables help the gambler to disconnect all emotions from betting. The figures show very plainly where to concentrate when compiling a betting system portfolio for profit.

Perhaps you will prefer certain bet types, or betting within certain odds clusters, or even concentrating on away teams when the match is equally matched – the HDAFU tables reveal all this and more.

Perhaps you wish to concentrate on draws when the home, draw, or away odds (or a combination of them all) meet certain conditions? Again, the tables are sophisticated and refined enough to provide you with such detailed information.

Further reading:
Finding Betting Odds Inflection Points
Half-time Results are more Predictable than Full-time

What do you recommend to read for better understanding of the HDAFU tables?

HDAFU Tables Knowledge Base

1X2 Betting System – Staking the Underdog
How to Compile a Winning Portfolio
Finding Betting Odds Inflection Points
Odds Toggle Function


HDA Betting: Profit/Loss Simulation Tables
PRODUCT SUMMARY

  • Format: Excel .XLSX (compatible with Excel 2007 and higher, LibreOffice, Google Sheets, OpenOffice, etc.)
  • File Size: between 1MB and 3MB each
  • Publisher: Soccerwidow Ltd; 4th revised edition
  • Simulations within each Workbook: over 100
  • Language: ENGLISH

By purchasing this product you agree to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy.

After payment you will be redirected to download your purchased product(s). You will also receive an e-mail with a confirmation of your purchase and download link from DPD (our partner for storing and delivering of digital products) as well as from PayPal (our partner for secure payment processing).

PayPal is an online payment service that is world-wide used for processing secure payments on the Internet. Paypal supports all major payment methods such as direct debit, credit cards and deposits. Should you wish another payment option then we also offer Neteller, Skrill (Moneybookers) or bank transfer. Check here.

Customer Comment

I have recently purchased some HDA tables which I have to say are simply excellent.
They have certainly opened my eyes to areas I had never considered before.

Studying them fully will take me a while but I used some insights gained from them on a few
games at the weekend and again, I have to say that I am very impressed with the product.

Hector

>>> buy your hdafu tables <<<

Customers Who Bought This Item Also Bought:

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Football Betting Odds Calculation Course – How to Calculate Odds – Over / Under ‘X’ Goals http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/soccerwidow-betting-course-betting-on-underover-x-goals/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/soccerwidow-betting-course-betting-on-underover-x-goals/#comments Fri, 21 Nov 2014 14:00:17 +0000 http://soccerwidow.com/?p=919 Please note that this is an archived post. Here, we describe the 1st edition of our Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Course. We decided not to remove this post from the site because of the many questions and answers in the comments section. For those of you with curious minds it may also be quite interesting to see how this product has developed over the years.

Here’s the link to the product specifics of the 2nd edition: Fundamentals of Sports Betting



Soccerwidow’s Over Under Betting Course takes the bettor through probabilities, odds, value, profit and loss calculation, and explains these technical terms in easy language.

There are plenty of exercises to help hone your skills, and you will also learn to download historical data and analyse it using calculation software such as Excel.

The course explains in detail how to evaluate teams and compile your own ‘true’ odds for the Over Under betting market which can then be compared to the market prices.

You will be taught the process of calculating value, clustering data, understanding probabilities, and computing potential profit and loss from anticipated bets.

This book is essential reading for anyone looking to understand odds calculation and take their betting to another level.

Over Under Football Betting Course – How to Calculate Odds, Identify Value Bets and Develop a Successful Betting Strategy


Why do I need to know how to calculate odds?

Enthusiasm for sports betting is good and fine, but there is much more needed to actually become a winner.

The majority of bettors use their hearts, gut feelings, and hunches to place their bets. They then perhaps do a little research and despite getting the best odds available in the markets, and using various bookmaker accounts, they wonder why they lose more than they win in the long run.

The answer is simple; to make a regular profit and keep on winning not only requires a disciplined approach but also a thorough understanding of odds calculation.

Further reading:
Psychology of Gambling and the Importance of a Staking Plan
Value Betting versus Gut Feeling


What knowledge is required to understand this course?

This is a beginner’s course, and aiming at people with little odds calculation knowledge and basic Excel skills.

The course is written on a level which does not require higher maths than O-levels. Still, the course may be quite difficult for those who have always found maths a challenge. Just take your time, read each chapter several times, solve all the exercises before moving on to the next section, and try to understand everything. Ultimately, you will be rewarded with knowledge.

To ensure proper understanding, the course contains no shortcuts. All calculations need to be done manually. There are plenty of exercises to guide the learning process and the aim is that once you master the course, you should be able to develop your own betting system which should hopefully turn you into a winner.

All formulas are given and explained either in the chapter of each exercise, or at the end which contains the solutions to all of the exercises.

You are welcome to ask specific questions via the comment functions in any article on the Soccerwidow website; we usually reply within a few hours and are more than happy to help.

Further reading:
Heart Beats Brain – Is Accurate Forecasting of Specific Results in Football Matches Possible?
Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage: Explained


Are the principles and analysis techniques in this course
transferrable to other football leagues?

Absolutely – although the course uses the German Bundesliga as its example to outline principles and techniques to analyse a league’s goal distribution, the methodology is equally applicable to any world football league and indeed, relevant to all other professional sports.

Furthermore, the Odds Calculation Course uses the Over Under Goals market as its theme and the approaches demonstrated are timeless, using fundamental statistical principles for practical football betting applications. They are also usable for odds calculation in other betting markets (e.g. both teams to score, clean sheets, etc.).

Anything with historical data available and which is countable can be statistically analysed. Once the distributions are known, forecasts and projections for the future are possible.

Further reading:
Goal Distribution Comparison – EPL, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie
How Bookmakers’ Odds Match Public Opinion


Contents of the Odds Calculation Course:

Section A: Basic Knowledge

Probabilities, Odds, Value, Profit and Loss Calculation:

1. Calculation of Expected Market Prices

  • Goals in the German Bundesliga
  • Exercises in calculating percentages
  • Expected odds for the Bundesliga
  • Exercises in calculating probability and odds

2. Evaluation of Individual Teams

  • Exercises in interpreting graphs
  • Computing the ‘zero’ (fair/ true) odds
  • How is ‘value’ calculated?
  • Exercises in calculating probabilities, odds, value, profit and loss

Section B: Cluster Groups and Betting Tables

Developing a Betting Strategy:

3. Building Cluster Groups

  • What are cluster groups?
  • Cluster grouping according to the relative strength of opposing teams
  • Exercises in cluster group building

4. Betting Tables: Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Market

  • How to read and understand the betting tables
  • Exercises in calculating and forecasting market odds
  • Finding potential value bets in the betting tables
  • Exercises with cluster groups and identifying bets


Football Betting Odds Calculation Course
How to Calculate Odds – Over / Under ‘X’ Goals
PRODUCT SUMMARY (1st EDITION)

E-book - The Soccerwidow Odds Calculation Course
  • Format: PDF
  • Download Size: 1.29 MB
  • Publisher: Soccerwidow Ltd; 1st edition (February 2012)
  • Pages: 69
  • Example Tables: 44
  • Practise Exercises and Questions: Over 40 (Answers provided)
  • Language: ENGLISH


Sorry, but the first edition is not offered for sale anymore. It helped many, many people see gambling in a different light. It was praised as presenting facts in an unemotional manner, stripping away the myths and false beliefs hampering the majority of punters.

But there is a new, revised version of the course packing an extra 100 pages of invaluable information: Fundamentals of Sports Betting

The book has undergone a transformation to become a complete guide to betting for long-term profit, including everything customers of the first edition asked, either by commenting here on this page (see below), or by contacting us directly by email.

Customer Comment
My advice would be to purchase Soccerwidow’s ‘How to calculate Odds’ workbook.
It’s extremely comprehensive and anything I didn’t understand I googled, and googled again,
and still google. It will probably be a few months before I understand it fully
but as I bet on both soccer & Australian Rules Football I found it invaluable.
I can’t wait for your next article.
Mark


Customers Who Bought This Item Also Bought:

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Betting Odds Converter – Fractional, Decimal, Moneyline, Hong Kong, Indonesian, and Malay http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/bookmakers/betting-odds-converter-fractional-decimal-moneyline-hong-kong-indonesian-malay/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/bookmakers/betting-odds-converter-fractional-decimal-moneyline-hong-kong-indonesian-malay/#respond Sun, 01 Dec 2013 18:48:47 +0000 http://soccerwidow.com/?p=3405 more »]]> Quick Odds Converter to switch odds between US, decimal, fractional, percentage, Hong Kong, Indonesian, and Malay formats – converts odds into their implied probabilities and net returns, and vice versa – converts probabilities and net returns into their corresponding odds.

Betting Odds Converter – Fractional, Decimal, Moneyline, Hong Kong, Indonesian, and Malay


Fractional, Decimal,
Moneyline, Hong Kong,
Indonesian, and Malay

Betting Odds Converter

Price: £14.50
(ex VAT; see below)
Add to Cart

0% VAT to UK customers
0% VAT to Non-EU customers
Read more: EU VAT Legislation


e-shop: Product Overview
View Your Shopping Cart

What does the Betting Odds Convertor do?

Automatically converts odds into their implied probabilities

Automatically switches odds between US, decimal, fractional, percentage, Hong Kong, Indonesian, and Malay formats

Automatically converts probabilities into their corresponding odds

Automatically displays the net return for each odd type

What Additional Information is included in the Spreadsheet?

Excel formulas, explanations and toggle facilities for the following conversions: –

Probabilities into Odds

Net returns into Odds

Odds into their Implied Probability

Odds into Net return

Why do I need to know how to convert betting odds
into probabilities and net returns, and vice versa?

In order to compare odds, you need to be able to convert them into implied probabilities and their net returns, because this is the foundation of all odds in the market. Only when you convert odds into their probabilities can you compare them.

Otherwise, how would you possibly know that 6/5 fractional odds, 1.2 HK odds, 2.2 decimal odds, +120 US moneyline, 1.2 Indonesian odds, or -0.83 Malay odds , all stand for a 45.45% chance of success and 120% net return?

Further reading:
Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage: Explained
Understanding Betting Odds – Moneyline, Fractional Odds, Decimal Odds, Hong Kong Odds, IN Odds, MA Odds


What is the advantage of being able to switch between different betting odds formats?

As you compare prices and look for the best odds available in the market, you limit yourself if you are only at ease with one or two types of betting odds.

For example, you may wish to find the best price for a tennis match, and if you are only comfortable with European style odds, then you probably won’t even consider checking the US market or Asian bookmakers.

However, they may have far better prices on offer; you just simply don’t know because you don’t know how to convert them into probabilities and net returns.

You will never become a winner if you buy your bet at the most conveniently available price, without searching for the best price offered by the market.

Further reading:
Football Betting Odds: Study Comparison Bookmaker vs. Exchanges Odds
Why A Pinnacle Account Is Essential


Why is it important to know the formulas behind odds calculation?

If you calculate your own probabilities and need to check them against the odds offered by bookmakers to find value bets, how on earth would you work this out if you don’t know the formulas behind the odds?

The Internet is full of advice and explanations, but unfortunately the vast majority of information is either wrong or intended to lure you into betting. It is rare to find reliable information on the implied probabilities for odds offered in the markets, or the net returns from the odds.

Furthermore, only people who understand the probabilities behind the odds on offer are able to assess the potential value of a bet.

If you are not skilled in converting betting odds into probabilities you will, without exception, lose money in the long run. Keep reminding yourself: odds stand for probabilities. Bookmakers earn money from gambling, but they do NOT gamble themselves. Neither do they rely on luck. They know how to calculate probabilities and convert them into odds and vice versa. It’s as simple as this.

Therefore, if you want to become a winner, you need to start thinking like a bookmaker, and this means that you simply have to understand probabilities and odds. There is no alternative.

Further reading:
How do Bookmakers Tick? How & Why do they Set Their Odds as they do?
Calculation of Odds: Probability and Deviation


What impact does the knowledge of implied probabilities
and odds conversion have on my betting decisions?

There are two types of gamblers: successful and unsuccessful. The majority of bettors belong to the latter.

If you lose more money than you win, maybe you are basing your betting decisions more on gut feeling than mathematics. Perhaps you place your hard-earned money on a favourite team believing they are in a ‘must win’ match, thinking that they surely cannot lose against the underdog.

You may not even be aware that bookmakers adjust their odds to public opinion, and that odds offered in the market often do not represent their true value.

If your betting decisions are more gambling than anything else, relying on luck, without understanding underlying probabilities of the odds offered, then it is not really surprising that you lose more money than you win.

True understanding and lasting success is based on knowledge, not on ignorance, beliefs, or public opinion.

Only if you develop knowledge of implied probabilities from bookmaker odds, will you be able to check them against your own calculations. Then your betting decisions will be not gambling any more but a planned investment with the goal of a structured and organised increase of your bank.

Further reading:
Heart Beats Brain – Is Accurate Forecasting of Specific Results in Football Matches Possible?
How Bookmakers’ Odds Match Public Opinion


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1×2 Full-Time Table of Records – Value Bet Detector with H2H history http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/statistics-historical-data/1x2-full-time-table-of-records-value-betting/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/statistics-historical-data/1x2-full-time-table-of-records-value-betting/#comments Mon, 07 Oct 2013 18:50:07 +0000 http://soccerwidow.com/?p=3307 more »]]> The 1×2 Full-Time table of records is a compilation of HDA data from 417 completed Value Bet Detector spreadsheets from 24 countries around the world. (League games with H2H history).

1x2 FT Table of Records - Value Bet Detector with H2H history


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The data set represents a statistically significant number of matches.

Each tab will improve your knowledge and understanding of odds calculation. Sorting the data into probability clusters will clarify your own observations.

Using the plethora of data included in this Excel download, winning and losing streaks in different 1×2 probability groups will be evident and distinguishable.

Advanced Excel users can utilise the tables to identify bookmaker trends and false odds patterns.

The knowledge gained from our records table will support you in customising your True Odds & Value Detector.

Whichever football betting strategy you follow, deeper analysis always improves hit rates.

XLS file for download:

Size: 977.5 KB


To purchase the Value Bet Detector itself please visit THIS LINK.

Watch the explanatory video below:




Spreadsheet Table of Contents:

1. Record tab with 417 sets of data
2. Tab: HOME True odds – probability clusters
3. Tab: HOME Bookmaker odds – probability clusters
4. Tab: DRAW True odds – probability clusters
5. Tab: DRAW 25-29.99% True odds probability cluster
.   [split into country clusters]
6. Tab: DRAW Bookmaker odds – probability clusters
7. Tab: DRAW 25-29.99% Bookmaker odds probability cluster
.   [split into country clusters]
8. Tab: AWAY True odds – probability clusters
9. Tab: AWAY Bookmaker odds – probability clusters

1×2 FT Table of Records Synopsis

Please remember that the Value Bet Detector is not an automated betting tool; it is a sophisticated mathematical instrument to calculate statistical likelihoods of events occurring, and to identify whether the odds for those events hold value.

The 1×2 table of records is a supporting spreadsheet of data captured by the Value Bet Detector over a period of 18 months and is a valuable addition enabling the user to better target probability and odds clusters.

It goes without saying that the more knowledge and understanding of odds calculation you have, the more useful this ancillary spreadsheet will be.

By purchasing this product you agree to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy.

After payment you will be redirected to download your purchased product(s). You will also receive an e-mail with a confirmation of your purchase and download link from DPD (our partner for storing and delivering of digital products) as well as from PayPal (our partner for secure payment processing).

PayPal is an online payment service that is world-wide used for processing secure payments on the Internet. Paypal supports all major payment methods such as direct debit, credit cards and deposits. Should you wish another payment option then we also offer Neteller, Skrill (Moneybookers) or bank transfer.


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Correct Assignment of Football Data to Levels of Measurement http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/correct-assignment-football-data-levels-of-measurement/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/correct-assignment-football-data-levels-of-measurement/#respond Wed, 24 Apr 2013 20:21:38 +0000 http://www.fussballwitwe.com/?p=2734 more »]]> In statistics, information is collected using qualitative or quantitative data. The collected data is then organised using scales or levels in order to classify the data correctly because not every set of data is of equal value and can be analysed further.

Correct Assignment of Football Data to Levels of Measurement


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For example, whilst the total number of goals in a match can be counted easily allowing various arithmetical interpretations, the inclusion of a certain team in the league cannot be expressed as a meaningful number and may only be used for categorising the respective data set.

It is very important to be aware of the scales of measurement and to assign the correct levels as they not only express how quantitative a response is, but also to what extent meaningful computations can be applied.


Table of Contents:

1. Nominal Scale
2. Ordinal Scale
3. Interval Scale
4. Ratio Scale
5. Scaling issues of variables
6. Think Before You Calculate
7. Synopsis & Summary Table

PDF file for download:

Extent: 7 pages
Size: 122.6 KB

Think Before You Calculate

Given a list of shirt numbers of players, it is certainly possible to perform all sorts of calculations but none will provide any meaningful results. What is one shirt number divided by another one? A complete waste of your time as this data belongs to the nominal scale.

Unfortunately, it is not always as obvious which data will lead to meaningful results and which not. Therefore, when you are collecting data, think before you calculate. The level of measurement you are working with will determine what makes sense to do and what to leave well alone.

Probably the most prominent misleading data set is the order of teams in the form table. This data is ordinal scaled and exists purely to put teams in an order. However, in practice, punters pay a lot of attention to the form tables (often even just the last six results!), but unfortunately these data are pretty useless in terms of meaningful analysis and drawing conclusions for betting.

By purchasing this product you agree to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy.

After payment you will be redirected to download your purchased product(s). You will also receive an e-mail with a confirmation of your purchase and download link from DPD (our partner for storing and delivering of digital products) as well as from PayPal (our partner for secure payment processing).

PayPal is an online payment service that is world-wide used for processing secure payments on the Internet. Paypal supports all major payment methods such as direct debit, credit cards and deposits. Should you wish another payment option then we also offer Neteller, Skrill (Moneybookers) or bank transfer.

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True Odds & Value Detector: International Club Competitions (with no head-to-head history) http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/true-odds-value-detector-international-club-competitions-with-no-head-to-head-history/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/true-odds-value-detector-international-club-competitions-with-no-head-to-head-history/#comments Wed, 19 Sep 2012 05:09:03 +0000 http://soccerwidow.com/?p=2299 This spreadsheet contains the calculations for international club tournaments between teams with no head-to-head history, applicable for competitions such as the UEFA Champions League, Europa League, or even the South American Copa Libertadores.

True Odds Calculator & Value Bets Detector

International Club Competitions

Price: £29.90
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(ex VAT; see below)Add to Cart


Price: £19.90
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The instructional video below concentrates on the 1×2 odds section explaining the calculation of expected odds, and comparing them to market prices.

We also show you where to find records of the opening bookmaker odds and their changes over time, and how to interpret this information.

Later in the video we identify a method of easily identifying matches to analyse with the spreadsheet, those with possible strong discrepancies in their odds, by looking at the money matched and waiting to be matched for bets in the betting exchanges.

This is an educational video, aimed at those who wish to further understand odds calculation, and would like to know how market prices are set.


This video is about: Calculation of 1×2 (Home-Draw-Away) True Odds in UEFA Champions League games & How Market Prices are set

The examples used in the video are the UEFA Champions League matches Real Madrid vs. Manchester City, Dortmund vs. Ajax and Manchester United vs. Galatasaray.

The spreadsheet can be used to calculate the ‘true’ odds for any match of your choice for international tournaments between individual clubs. The accuracy of the calculations improves if the teams in question have a similar recent history in the tournament under analysis (for example, both team’s last 10 international club competition games have all been in the Champions League).

All you need to do is fill-in basic data:

  1. the best odds you can find for the various betting options dealt with by the spreadsheet
  2. the home team’s last 30 home game half-time and full-time scores in their domestic league and all other competitions (no friendlies)
  3. the away team’s last 30 away game half-time and full-time scores in their domestic league and all other competitions (no friendlies)
  4. the home team’s last 10 international club tournament home game half-time and full-time scores (or if not 10, as many within the last 5 years as can be gathered)
  5. the away team’s last 10 international club tournament away game half-time and full-time scores (or if not 10, as many within the last 5 years as can be gathered)

The team stats can easily be found in sites such as www.soccerway.com or www.oddsportal.com.

Use a combination of an exchange site such as www.betfair.com and www.oddschecker.com for the best odds.

For each of the following events, the expected mathematical ‘value’ is automatically flagged up together with the expected probability (statistical mean) of winning the bet:

  • Match Result (home-draw-away) at both half-time and full-time
  • Draw No Bet
  • Win to Nil
  • Clean Sheet
  • Both Teams to Score
  • Over/Under ‘X’ Goals
  • Half-time/Full-time
  • Half-time and Full-time Correct Scores
  • The full realm of Asian Handicap options including all the half and quarter point thresholds

The spreadsheet calculates ‘true’ odds (expected probabilities), and compares market prices with the statistical probability of winning the bet to show you whether there is any ‘value’ in the bet and therefore whether it is financially worthwhile undertaking.

It should be noted that the spreadsheet is not a tool for automated betting. Although the tables provide vital information to improve the accuracy of predictions, the figures do not substitute for reading salient news and applying good judgment in addition.

Required Acumen

Ideally, you should already possess a basic understanding of odds and how they are calculated. The spreadsheet is a tool to identify potential bet candidates.

However, you need to understand what is meant by the term ‘value’ and also have a good idea how to spread risk with a well-structured betting portfolio. The spreadsheet is intermediate level and you should become entirely familiar with its mechanics before committing money to any bet recommendations suggested by it.

Good Excel skills would also be an advantage.

For beginners we offer a comprehensive course: Fundamentals of Sports Betting: Betting on Over/Under ‘X’ Goals, which is a step-by-step guide including exercises and tutorials on how to understand odds calculation. Although the example used is the popular over/under ‘X’ goals market, the principles can be just as easily applied to any market of your choosing.

Full support for all of Soccerwidow’s products is always provided should you require pre- or after-sales assistance or clarification. Feel free to ask any question via the Comment section below.

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True Odds & Value Detector: League Games with H2H History http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/odds-calculation-en/true-odds-value-detector-league-games-h2h-history/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/odds-calculation-en/true-odds-value-detector-league-games-h2h-history/#comments Wed, 29 Aug 2012 12:35:47 +0000 http://www.fussballwitwe.com/?p=2235 In conjunction with our regular match previews published in the German Betfair blog we are pleased to present our league match with head-to-head history ‘Value’ bet detector spreadsheet.

True Odds Calculator & Value Bets Detector


League Games
with H2H History


Price: £29.90
WITH Asian Handicap

(ex VAT; see below)
Add to Cart


Price: £19.90
WITHOUT Asian Handicap

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Our bet selections are always based on true odds calculations identifying mathematical ‘value’ in the markets. Of course, not every bet can win, but ‘value’ betting is the only reliable method of ensuring long-term betting profits.

‘VALUE’ bet detector: The Excel spreadsheet calculates the ‘true’ odds (= expected probabilities based on historical statistics) and then displays each ‘value’ bet recommendation. For every event included the expected values are calculated, compared to market prices, and finally the statistical probability of winning the bet is shown.

Soccerwidow follows the philosophy that only through identifying bets containing mathematical ‘value’ in the prices offered by bookmakers or exchanges is it possible to make consistent profits.

It should be noted that the spreadsheet is not a tool for automated betting. The tables provide vital information to improve the accuracy of your own predictions, and the figures do not substitute for reading salient news and applying good judgement.

The Excel spreadsheet offered for sale comes pre-filled with data from the Premier League game Liverpool v. Manchester City on 26/8/2012. Just delete or over-type this to analyse any match of your choosing.

Read a few sample match previews which apply ‘League Games with H2H History’ calculations:




Supporting Videos

Data Sourcing: Learn where to find historical match data and download it from www.football-data.co.uk to make your own Excel store of statistics.

Data Input: Historical match results and head-to-head data input to populate the Value Bet Detector ready for input of the best odds you can find.

Frequently asked questions:

Can I use the spreadsheet in other leagues?

Yes, the calculations apply for any league in the world. The only parameters are that the game in question must be between two teams which have played at least their last 25 home or away games in the same league. The calculations are based on the home team’s last 25 home games and the away team’s last 25 away games, in the same league. Also, both teams must have played the corresponding fixture at least 6 times in the last 10 years (in other words, the home team has hosted the away team at least 6 times in all competitions (not friendlies) in the last 10 years).

How long does it take to enter historical data into the spreadsheet?

This is a manual procedure and you will quickly find which sources are best for the full-time and half-time results of both teams in the 25 matches to be analysed, plus the head-to-head encounters. We recommend Football-Data, Betexplorer, Oddsportal and Soccerway, although there are a host of other sites specialising in historical statistics.

At the start, you will find data collection will take about 30 minutes per match including entering the best bookmaker odds you can find (try Betfair and Oddschecker).

Are the formulas for the spreadsheet calculations visible?

Yes, we have hidden none of the formulas.

Exactly which historical records do I have to input?

The full-time and half-time scores for both team’s last 25 matches (home games only for the home team, away games only for the away team), plus the same for the head-to-head encounters over the last 10 years.

What knowledge is required?

You should already have a understanding of odds and how they are calculated. The spreadsheet is just a tool to identify potential bet candidates. You will need to understand what is meant by the term ‘value’ and also have a good idea how to spread risk with a well-structured betting portfolio. The spreadsheet is intermediate level, and you should be become entirely familiar with its mechanics before committing money to any bet recommendations suggested by the spreadsheet.


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