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Wizard with glowing magical orb / Zauberer mit glühender magischer Kugel

Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 159 Bets, from 07/12/2011 to 30/04/2012

After five months of writing match previews and bet recommendations both in the English and German language versions of Betfair’s blog, it is time to review the results and ultimately compare them with Betfair’s own odds (i.e. predicted...
Goal full of soccer balls / Tor voller Fußbälle

Goal Distribution Comparison – EPL, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie

Judging purely from statistics, watching French league games must be rather boring as there are never many goals. Image: koya979 (Shutterstock) The Dutch, on the other hand, tend to have at least five goals in nearly 10% of their matches. From...
Wizard with glowing magical orb / Zauberer mit glühender magischer Kugel

Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 109 bets, from 07/12/2011 to 31/03/2012

Patience and persistence is paying off. Since December 2011, Soccerwidow has published regular match previews and betting recommendations mostly for English Premier League and German Bundesliga 1 games in the German language Betfair blog. For...
Golden piggy bank standing out from the others / Goldenes Sparschwein zwischen vielen anderen

Sharp Betting: Sports Betting as a Permanent Source of Income

Fortune Favours the Educated: There are only three guaranteed ways of making regular, long-term profits from betting: Arbitrage Trading (Both requiring large numbers of transactions for a steady drip-feed) ‘Sharp’ or ‘Value’...
Wizard with glowing magical orb / Zauberer mit glühender magischer Kugel

Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 56 Bets, from 07/12/2011 to 29/02/2012

It is tricky to prove mathematically that betting success is not connected with luck because ‘luck’ is impossible to quantify or express in a formulaic manner. However, it is possible to show empirically that betting selections chosen entirely...
Female fortune teller holding a crystal ball to her eye / Wahrsagerin hält eine Kristallkugel am Auge

What Does ‘Form’ Mean in Football?

Please Discuss… Now and again Soccerwidow receives enquiries as to whether we consider ‘form’ in our match analyses and value bet recommendations. The reader will have to excuse our increasing ignorance of the concept of ‘form’...
Hand flipping a coin / Hand wirft eine Münze

What is a Bet? How to Calculate Mathematical Advantage?

It is difficult to believe but, there are plenty of people around who have little idea exactly what a bet is or what is meant whenever I mention being interested in betting or the fact that I run a Web site about online football betting. Obviously...
Computer mouse attached to football bearing 1X2 symbols / Computemaus befestigt an einem Fußball mit 1X2 Symbolen

Value Bet Test Evaluation – Three Months – 65% Bank Increase

In August 2011, Soccerwidow began a portfolio football betting exercise involving the backing of over-priced odds and the laying of under-priced odds, subject to certain calculated probability parameters. The picks were originally only published...
Man with 4 arms and juggling with calculator, abacus, note pad and pen / Mann mit vier Armen jongliert mit Taschenrechner, Rechentafel, Notizblock und Stift

Calculation of Odds: Probability and Deviation

Calculating odds is a science, and statisticians/analysts, who can do the job competently, receive good annual salaries (GBP 50k-80k; €60k-95k: Quantitative Analyst). These jobs are paid so well because the results form the backbone of each...
Countries football-data

Historical Data: Fixture Results and Bookmaker Odds

Whoever wishes to become a serious gambler and start winning money, or even dreams of making a living from betting, needs to analyse some historical data. A source in the Internet which is simply a gold mine is www.Football-Data.co.uk. Here...