Match Previews – Soccerwidow http://www.soccerwidow.com Football Betting Maths, Value Betting Strategies Sun, 26 Feb 2017 11:21:12 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.7.2 Soccerwidow Match Preview Pause in Betfair German Blog http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/football-soccer-lifestyle/entertainment/news/match-preview-pause-betfair-german-blog/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/football-soccer-lifestyle/entertainment/news/match-preview-pause-betfair-german-blog/#respond Wed, 17 Oct 2012 11:47:25 +0000 http://www.fussballwitwe.com/?p=2362 Unfortunately, this announcement is not good news for those of you who like to follow Soccerwidow’s regular match previews published in the German Betfair blog: With immediate effect, there will be a pause until further notice.

Justice blindfolded with money on a scaleImage: kanvag (Shutterstock)

Due to continued regulatory challenges, Betfair have taken the decision to suspend their marketing programmes in Germany.

They are currently undertaking a licensing process in Germany for Sports, Games and Poker and have already been granted a Sports betting licence in the state of Schleswig-Holstein, one of 16 German states.

As it stands, they are in a promising position to become a fully licensed operator countrywide but, in order not to jeopardise their remaining applications, they have decided to pause marketing activities for new customer acquisition across all channels and products in Germany for the time being.

This affects Soccerwidow fundamentally as Betfair Germany has also suspended orders for blog articles, which includes our match previews.

Of course, “Why not continue publishing them in the Soccerwidow blog?” Unfortunately, this is easier said than done.

To write and publish a carefully researched and analysed match preview requires approximately three to four working hours; four pieces a week adds up to a considerable amount of time.

In anticipation of just such a situation, we tried a few months ago to publish match previews in Soccerwidow.com (May to July this year). These articles were immensely popular and sometimes attracted more than 1,000 readers each, but the majority came to the site purely for the picks. The increased traffic slowed down the site for genuine readers and contributed nothing in terms of additional sales (Soccerwidow’s course and spreadsheets) or numbers of clicks on ads.

We are sorry to disappoint any regular and loyal readers and we hope you understand our decision not to substitute the previously paid articles in Betfair with free match previews in Soccerwidow is purely about time and money. We wish we could, but we can’t.

Occasionally, readers suggest that we sell our value bet picks and recommendations as they are so successful, or at least introduce a premium service, offering match previews for a monthly subscription fee.

However, this has never been and never will be the goal of this Web site. Soccerwidow wants only to encourage anyone who wishes to bet to use their own intelligence and to fully understand odds calculation and the markets. The site is set up primarily for educational purposes.

Our main aim is education and training, not to provide an easy-to-use picks service for the public. The few match previews we published on Soccerwidow in the past were detailed analyses intending to guide readers into learning how to identify value bets for themselves. If the information we provide persuades some readers to give up betting altogether when they see how difficult it is to make money from gambling, then this is part of our ambit too.

Moreover, if we did start a premium service this would require an increased number of match previews and bet recommendations in order to diversify the betting portfolio sufficiently to ensure its long-term success. Consequently, this would generate a need to employ additional contributors, train them, add quality assurance procedures, and so on. Quite simply, this is not the direction we wish to follow.

We can only cross our fingers and hope that Betfair’s licensing procedure does not take too long. If and when the situation resolves itself, Soccerwidow’s match previews will immediately recommence.

Of course, another possibility is that an alternative solution may come up in the meantime, for example, a different publisher who needs professionally analysed, statistically based match previews.



To avoid confusion: This is about Betfair’s new customer marketing budget in Germany, not their existing German customer accounts.

Betfair states that there will be no impact on existing customers and on Betfair’s product offering. All products and Web sites, particularly www.betfair.com, will remain live and accessible for German customers without any restrictions.

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EPL: Liverpool v. Man. City – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Tips http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/match-previews/26-8-2012-liverpool-manchester-city-football-betting-predictions/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/match-previews/26-8-2012-liverpool-manchester-city-football-betting-predictions/#comments Sat, 25 Aug 2012 13:32:49 +0000 http://soccerwidow.com/?p=2227 more »]]>

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option.

Gambling without emotion and with ‘value’ on your side is the only way to approach betting for profit. The Soccerwidow spreadsheet combines historical statistics with current betting odds to determine whether a bet carries value, and also shows the percentage likelihood of winning the bet.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 25th August, 2012…


EPL 26.8.2012 – Liverpool v Man City

This week’s Opta fact-sheet states that “Liverpool have won just once in their last 7 Premier League games against Manchester City; of the remaining 6 meetings, 4 ended in a draw”. Of course, they could so easily have written, “Manchester City have won only 2 of their last 7 Premier League games against Liverpool, losing 1 and drawing 4”. It all seems a little biased as from 20 Premier League games in the last 10 years, Liverpool won 9 times (45%), 7 games ended drawn (35%), and Manchester City won only 4 times (20%). The two teams also met recently in the Carling Cup, which if you remember, ended 2-2 in the first leg followed by a tight Liverpool victory, 1-0.

Partly due to reputation and also to supply and demand, Manchester City’s odds to win this game are currently 2.48, which are almost 60% below value. They should be nearer 4.64 to win. They may well be English champions, but based on historical performances their chances of beating Liverpool at Anfield are only 21.5%.

Liverpool’s chance of beating Man City is almost twice as great at 46.3% but their odds are well over-priced at 3.2 – they should be closer to 2.16. Last week Liverpool lost 3-0 to West Brom, whilst City narrowly defeated newly promoted Southampton. These facts need to be arranged in context. This was not Liverpool’s first defeat against West Brom. The Baggies beat them at Anfield as recently as 22/04/2012, and in the season before, Liverpool succumbed 2-1 at the Hawthorns.

City didn’t really find their best form against Southampton and conceding 2 goals against a newly promoted team at home will have been a slight embarrassment for them. They will count themselves fortunate to have come away with 3 points from that fixture.

Which bets has Soccerwidow identified?

Salient statistics for the football betting predictions

Head-to-Head (Liverpool hosts, Man City visitors, 11 matches in all competitions since 3.5.2003):
Man City Clean Sheet: none (0%)
Half-time/Full-time Result: Draw/Draw (4 times = 36.4%); Draw/Home (2 times = 18.2%)
Full-time Result: Liverpool 6 wins (54.5%); 4 Draws (36.4%); Man City 1 win (9.1%)
Half-time Result: Liverpool 3 wins (27.3%); 7 Draws (63.6%); Man City 1 win (9.1%)
Both Teams Scoring: 7 times (63.6%)
Full-time Under 3.5 Goals: 9 times (81.8%)

Liverpool’s last 25 Premier League home games since 12.2.2011:
Opposition Clean Sheet: 6 times (24%)
Half-time/Full-time Result: Draw/Draw (5 times = 20%); Draw/Home (2 times = 8%)
Full-time Result: Liverpool 10 wins (40%); 10 Draws (40%); 5 Defeats (20%)
Half-time Result: Liverpool 11 wins (44%); 9 Draws (36%); 5 Defeats (20%)
Both Teams Scoring: 14 times (56%)
Full-time Under 3.5 Goals: 20 times (80%)

Man City’s last 25 Premier League away games since 12.2.2011:
Man City Clean Sheet: 8 times (32%)
Half-time/Full-time Result: Draw/Draw (3 times = 12%); Draw/Home (6 times = 24%)
Full-time Result: Man City 12 wins (48%); 4 Draws (16%); 9 Defeats (36%)
Half-time Result: Man City 9 wins (36%); 14 Draws (56%); 2 Defeats (8%)
Both Teams Scoring: 11 times (44%)
Full-time Under 3.5 Goals: 18 times (72%)

Identified Value Bets:

  • Value Betting Tip 1: Man City are vastly under-priced for this game at 2.48, whereas the statistics imply they should be nearer 4.64 to beat Liverpool. Laying Man City therefore carries 87.2% ‘value’ in your favour, with a 78.5% chance of winning the bet.
  • Bet WON

  • Value Betting Tip 2: Laying Man City at half-time provides a greater probability of success at 81.5%. The ‘value’ quotient in this case is 68.5% based on lay odds of 3.2. City to lead at the break should more accurately be priced around 5.39.
  • Bet WON

  • Value Betting Tip 3: There is a tiny bit of value (2.3%) backing both teams to score at a price of 1.8. The odds should be 1.76. Chances of succeeding with this wager are 56.8%.

    Bet WON

  • Value Betting Tip 4: Backing FT under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.36 gives ‘value’ of 7.3% based on ‘true’ odds of 1.27. This bet carries a 78.9% chance of success.
  • Bet LOST

  • Value Betting Tip 5: Back Man City Clean Sheet = “NO” (Odds: 1.38; ‘true’ odds: 1.16; Probability of winning the bet: 86%; Value: 135.5%).
  • Bet WON

  • Value Betting Tip 6: “Dutch” Back Half-time/Full-time Results: Draw/Draw (Odds: 5.8); Draw/Home (Odds: 8.4) (with weighted stakes for equal risk/return). Combined odds: 3.43; ‘true’ odds: 2.33; Probability: 43%; Value: 47.6%.
  • Bet LOST

MATCH RESULT:
FT – Liverpool 2-2 Man City
HT – Liverpool 1-0 Man City

  • Back to previous match analysis: 6th August 2012 – Norwegian Tippeligaen – Stabæk v SK Brann
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    German Bundesliga 2012-2013: Bottom 2 Automatic Relegation Betting Statistics http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/german-bundesliga-relegation-betting/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/german-bundesliga-relegation-betting/#respond Thu, 23 Aug 2012 14:58:17 +0000 http://soccerwidow.com/?p=2217

    In our recent article “Who’s going to win the 50th German Bundesliga title?” we analysed the Meisterschale winning chances of each team taking into consideration the previous 49 seasons’ data.

    We now switch attention to the other end of the table and run the rule especially over teams who are already under the spectre of relegation purely because of what has happened to predecessors sharing similar circumstances in the past.

    Remember, the bottom two teams at the end of the season are automatically demoted to Bundesliga 2, whilst the 16th placed team enters a play-off with the 3rd placed Bundesliga 2 team to decide which will play in the top tier the following season…

    Stressed-out man being interviewedImage: Carlos Yudica (Shutterstock)

    Many seasoned followers of top-flight German football will have developed a feeling over the years that the likelihood is pretty high that newly promoted teams do not tend to survive their first season in the Bundesliga 1.

    However, the exact probabilities are probably something that not many bettors can quickly produce and Soccerwidow has therefore looked at the statistics in detail to provide answers.

    Last Season’s Top 5 Automatic Relegation Outlook

    It may be a slight surprise to learn that the probability of automatic relegation (bottom 2 finish) for a team having finished in the top 5 of Bundesliga 1 during the previous season is not zero; in fact it has happened 3 times in the last 49 seasons:

    • In 1967-68, FC Nuremberg won the Bundesliga 1 title only to be relegated the following season.
    • During 1968-69, Alemannia Aachen battled to a 2nd place finish but found themselves a year later playing in the second tier.
    • The last memorable slide to oblivion of this nature was not so long ago: In 2008-09 Hertha BSC gained a creditable 4th place, the reward for which was Europa League football in 2009-10, but in the latter season they were demoted to Bundesliga 2, having finished 18th out of 18 in the top-flight.

    Therefore, statistically speaking, the probability that any one of last season’s top 5, Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Schalke 04, Borussia Mönchengladbach or Bayer Leverkusen, are automatically relegated at the end of the 50th Bundesliga 1 season is 6.1%.

    The statistics suggest that on average in Bundesliga 1, surprises such as this happen once every 16 years.

    Newcomers’ Automatic Relegation Perspective

    The probability is as high as 39.8% that a newly promoted team will not survive their first season in Bundesliga 1, but there is no guarantee that the automatic relegation positions at the end of the season will contain any of these teams.

    Eintracht Frankfurt, Fortuna Düsseldorf and Greuther Fürth share a 37.5% chance that none of them will finish either 17th or 18th at the end of this season.

    In 49 seasons, all of the newly promoted teams have avoided the bottom 2 positions on 18 occasions.

    Last season FC Cologne (10th in 2010-11) and FC Kaiserslautern (7th in 2010-11) ended the season in the automatic relegation spots, 17th and 18th respectively, rather than either of the newly promoted teams FC Augsburg or Hertha BSC (although Hertha eventually succumbed in a play-off to Fortuna Düsseldorf).

    Only 7 times in the history of Bundesliga 1 have newly promoted teams been automatically relegated in both the bottom 2 positions the following season. Last time this happened was 2007-08 when both Hansa Rostock and MSV Duisburg, finished 17th and 18th respectively after just a single season in the league.

    The statistical chance of 2 of the 3 newly promoted teams (Fortuna Düsseldorf, Eintracht Frankfurt or Greuther Fürth) filling the bottom 2 positions at the end of 2012-13 is 14.6%.

    The chance that just 1 of the 3 finishes in the bottom 2 spots is however fairly high at 47.9%.

    So, the probability that 1 or 2 of the new arrivals do not survive longer than the 50th Bundesliga 1 season is 62.5% (47.9% plus 14.6%). The corresponding odds for this statistical probability are 1.6.

    Conclusion

    The market is currently offering the following odds for relegation:

    • Fortuna Düsseldorf = 3.0 (33.3%)
    • Eintracht Frankfurt = 5.0 (20%)
    • Greuther Fürth = 2.8 (35.7%)

    A “Dutch” back bet (weighted stakes for equal risk/return) on all 3 teams calculates to 89% (“Dutch” combined odds: 1.12)

    The acid question is therefore whether it is better to “Dutch” back or “Dutch” lay all 3 of the newly promoted teams, Fortuna Düsseldorf, Eintracht Frankfurt and Greuther Fürth, in this the “Golden Jubilee” Bundesliga 1 season?

    For a change we’ll let you decide…

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    Who’s Going to Win the 50th German Bundesliga Title? http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/bundesliga-2012-2013-winners/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/bundesliga-2012-2013-winners/#comments Mon, 06 Aug 2012 20:44:22 +0000 http://soccerwidow.com/?p=2174

    With just under 3 weeks to go until the start of the “Golden Jubilee” Bundesliga season we take a look at the 18 teams in contention for the title and statistically assess their chances of winning the Meisterschale next May.

    Defending champions, Borussia Dortmund, will be bidding for their 3rd championship on the bounce but defending a title is never easy in Germany, attested to by 5 different teams having won Bundesliga 1 in the last 10 seasons…

    Cheerful soccer fan girl devoted to GermanyImage: Fingerhut (Shutterstock)

    Meat & No Veg: Hamburger SV

    Hamburger SV are the league’s longest servants, ever-present since its formation in 1963. Their record of 3 title wins, 5 runners-up finishes, and twice 3rd in 49 years hasn’t really troubled the statisticians, and 15th place last season was a narrow escape from possible relegation.

    Never in the history of Bundesliga 1 has a team finished so lowly in a preceding season and then gone on to win the title. This fact is perhaps reflected in the bookmaker odds with Stan James currently offering best price at 201.00! This might be worth taking in the hope that Hamburg start the season well enough to trade out for a profit.

    Not A Sausage: Kaiserslautern

    Looking more at the stats, it can be further surmised that the likelihood of a team finishing 11th or lower improving enough to win the championship the following season is extremely low, although not absolutely zero, as are the chances of a team arriving from Bundesliga 2 and then immediately winning the top-flight division.

    1. FC Kaiserslautern are the one team who have most recently defied this rule of thumb, winning the title in 1990-91 after a 12th placed finish the previous season, and more impressively triumphing in 1997-98, when they became German champions having spent the previous season in Bundesliga 2. Many commentators still attribute the latter success to the inspired leadership of Otto Rehhagel, one of Germany’s most famous and successful managers who took on the challenge of turning an unfashionable team into championship winners.

    However, when all is said and done, Kaiserslautern will not have a chance for glory this time around due to their relegation last season…

    Sauerkrauts: Hoffenheim, Mainz, Freiburg, Augsburg, Fortuna Düsseldorf, Eintracht Frankfurt and Greuther Fürth

    So, back to the theory of teams unlikely to win the league having finished 11th or lower last season or who spent last season in Bundesliga 2. This would rule out the following teams:

    • Hoffenheim currently best priced at 201.00, with Stan James.
    • Mainz are 380.00 with Betfair.
    • Freiburg at 1,001.00, again with Stan James.
    • Augsburg seemingly have no chance at a price of 1,501.00, once more through Stan James. As they say, Augsburg have 2 hopes of winning the league: Bob Hope and no hope.
    • The 3 newly promoted teams are likewise given little chance by the bookies and you can get odds of 1,001.00 on Fortuna Düsseldorf, Eintracht Frankfurt and Greuther Fürth from both Paddy Power and Blue Square.


    Wurst Not First: Stuttgart, Hannover, Wolfsburg, Werder Bremen and Nuremberg

    There is a 16.7% statistical chance based on the previous 49 seasons that a team finishing in 6th-10th place last season will win this season’s title. It has happened on 8 occasions since 1963.

    This means that Stuttgart, Hannover, Wolfsburg, Werder Bremen and Nuremberg should all have improved chances of claiming the prize than any of the aforementioned teams.

    16.7% means that on average, Germany heralds an unexpected champion every 6 years. In 2006-07 Stuttgart came from 9th the previous year to win the top-flight; in 2003-04 Werder Bremen won the league after placing 6th the previous season.

    • Odds of 62.00 are available via Betfair for Stuttgart to claim this season’s crown.
    • Wolfsburg can be backed with Betfred at a price of 81.00.
    • The odds for Werder Bremen are best with Stan James at 151.00.
    • Hannover are 171.00 with Betfair.
    • Nuremberg are the rank outsiders of this group at a best price of 501.00 with Stan James.


    Top Beer: Schalke, Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen

    The statistical likelihood that a team finishing in 3rd to 5th position in the previous season wins the next is as high as 29.2%. The clubs in this bracket are Schalke, Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen.

    If we had a soft spot for any of them it would be for Schalke to finally claim their maiden Meisterschale at only their 45th attempt.

    • Schalke are the favourites from this group priced at a modest 26.00 with Betfair.
    • Bayer Leverkusen can be backed at 67.00, also with Betfair.
    • Borussia Mönchengladbach are 81.00 with Stan James.

    This group of 3 can certainly be considered for a “Dutch” back bet and we will tell you why below…

    Über alles: Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich

    Top of the shop are of course defending champions Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich.

    On 15 occasions, the defending champions have successfully defended their title, however 9 of these triumphs are firmly lodged in the record books of Bayern. Disregarding this for a moment, the pure statistical chance of Dortmund winning in 2012-13 is as high as 31.25%, but in 45 seasons they have managed a ‘double’ only twice, and have never won the title 3 times in a row.

    German Bundesliga 1 - Football Betting Predictions - Meisterschale Winner 2012-2013

    Photo: Florian K. (Wikimedia Commons)

    Bayern have accumulated 21 titles in their 47-year league history and their success rate is therefore a massive 44.7%; roughly speaking they win the Bundesliga once every 2 years.

    To calculate the exact mathematical odds there are several approaches but these are beyond the scope of a short article such as this. Nevertheless, the fact is that no matter how the calculation is performed, Bayern and Dortmund have a statistical likelihood combined of around 50% of winning the 50th Bundesliga title, which of course means 50% any other team.

    For those of you seriously considering a season-long investment on the Bundesliga winner, we advise to avoid backing Bayern or Dortmund as their odds carry hefty negative values. Bayern’s best odds are currently around 1.87 and Dortmund’s are at 2.90. However, realistically speaking, both should be somewhere in the region of 4.0.

    Combining the market’s prices of these two teams produces a whopping 87% chance that one of the two will win the Deutsche Meisterchale in 2012-13. This is more than 40% below the long-term value, and therefore in the long-run more bets of this nature will be lost than won.

    A nice alternative would be a “Dutch” lay bet on Dortmund/Bayern, risking 1.50 units to win 10 units with a 50/50 chance of success. Now that’s what we call a true ‘value’ bet!

    Conclusion

    The group probabilities for winning the 2012-13 Bundesliga season:

    • Dortmund and Bayern – 50% combined
    • Schalke, Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen – 29.2% combined
    • Stuttgart, Hannover, Wolfsburg, Werder Bremen and Nuremberg – 16.7% combined
    • The other 8 teams – 4.1% combined

    It’s certainly going to be an exciting season ahead and a battle royale for the “Jubilee” title. If you are wagering money on the final outcome then please be aware that the findings above are purely based on statistics and not on any major changes in team personnel over the close season.

    Never bet more than you can afford to lose and thanks once again for reading!

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    Norwegian Tippeligaen: Stabæk v. SK Brann – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Tips http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/match-previews/6-8-2012-stabaek-brann-football-betting-predictions/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/match-previews/6-8-2012-stabaek-brann-football-betting-predictions/#respond Sun, 05 Aug 2012 18:52:08 +0000 http://soccerwidow.com/?p=2169 more »]]>

    All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option.

    Gambling without emotion and with ‘value’ on your side is the only way to approach betting for profit. The Soccerwidow spreadsheet combines historical statistics with current betting odds to determine whether a bet carries value, and also shows the percentage likelihood of winning the bet.

    Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 5th August, 2012…


    You Can’t Win Anything With Kids…

    Stabæk are in desperate trouble and marooned at the bottom of the Tippeligaen, 10 points adrift of even a relegation play-off place with just under half of the season remaining. It’s all a bleak contrast to the heady days of winning the Tippeligaen just four years ago. Since then, financial troubles have blighted the club who started this season with just three players aged over 23. All the star names have departed and the youthful line-up that has mustered just two wins from 17 games this season already looks doomed.

    SK Brann are 16 points better off than their opponents but floating in mid-table obscurity exactly 16 points adrift of the league leaders. A concerted effort between now and the end of the season might bring Europa League qualification but the push has to start now to make up 10 points on the third placed team, Rosenborg, which does seem unlikely.

    In nine league encounters and one cup match over the last 10 years, Stabæk have won six and drawn two, yet they are rank outsiders for this game based purely on their perceived change of circumstances. You can get odds of 4.0 for them winning this game, when in reality the stats suggest 1.85. Go the other way and SK Brann’s current price of 1.96 should be around 3.45.

    Indeed, everything on the home-draw-away front is back-to-front as the draw is priced at 4.0, whilst the ‘true’ odds are closer to 5.88. However muddled the HDA market may be, one thing is certain: there will be goals in this game. Stabæk’s last 25 home league matches have averaged exactly three goals a game, and SK Brann’s equivalent away games have produced 99 goals at an average of 3.96 per game.

    Another telling stat is that in their respective 25 matches, both teams have been outscored by exactly the same margin, 42% of the respective goals for, and 58% against. Leaky defence versus leaky defence = goals a plenty…

    Salient statistics for the football betting predictions

    Head-to-Head (Stabæk hosts, SK Brann visitors, 10 matches in all competitions since 18.8.2002):
    Half-time Scores: 0-0 (none); Stabæk 0-2 SK Brann (none)
    Full-time: Over 1.5 Goals = 8 times (80%)
    Half-time Draws: one (10%)

    Stabæk’s last 25 Tippeligaen home games since 3.10.2010:
    Half-time Scores: 0-0 (5 times = 20%); Losing 0-2 (once = 4%)
    Full-time: Over 1.5 Goals = 21 times (84%)
    Half-time Draws: six (24%)

    SK Brann’s last 25 Tippeligaen away games since 17.10.2010:
    Half-time Scores: 0-0 (once = 4%); Winning 0-2 (once = 4%)
    Full-time: Over 1.5 Goals = 23 times (92%)
    Half-time Draws: five (20%)

    Identified Value Bets:

    • Value Betting Tip 1: Lay the draw at half-time carries significant value of 150% at odds of 2.5 (‘true’ odds 6.25), with an 84% chance of success.
    • Bet WON

    • Value Betting Tip 2: Back Full-time: Over 1.5 Goals (Odds: 1.23; ‘true’ odds: 1.19; Probability of winning the bet: 84%; Value: 20.39%).
    • Bet WON

    • Value Betting Tip 3: “Dutch” Lay Half-time Correct Scores: 0-0 (odds 3.5); Stabæk 0-2 SK Brann (odds 11.0) (with weighted stakes for equal risk/return). Combined lay odds: 2.66; combined ‘true’ lay odds: 12.5; Probability: 92%; Value: 370.8%.
    • Bet WON

    MATCH RESULT:
    FT – Stabæk 0-4 Brann
    HT – Stabæk 0-1 Brann

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    Belgian Jupiler League: Zulte-Waregem v. Gent – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Tips http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/match-previews/5-8-2012-zulte-waregm-gent-football-betting-predictions/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/match-previews/5-8-2012-zulte-waregm-gent-football-betting-predictions/#respond Sat, 04 Aug 2012 21:23:59 +0000 http://soccerwidow.com/?p=2166 more »]]>

    All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option.

    Gambling without emotion and with ‘value’ on your side is the only way to approach betting for profit. The Soccerwidow spreadsheet combines historical statistics with current betting odds to determine whether a bet carries value, and also shows the percentage likelihood of winning the bet.

    Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 4th August, 2012…


    Dirtying Clean Sheets

    Both teams are looking to build on their opening day wins and a victory for either will see one 100% record maintained and the other dashed. It is of course too early to say which team is ‘in form’ but both kept clean sheets in their openers and will certainly look to shutout their opponents again come Sunday’s match.

    In the analysed head-to-heads between these two adversaries the average goals per game is currently 3.5, which is quite a number bearing in mind the fairly small sample size (eight fixtures at this ground in the last 10 years). The goals have been fairly evenly distributed too with 12 in the first halves of games and 16 in the second halves (the average goals per game by half-time is exactly 1.5).

    Zulte-Waregem’s last 25 home games in the Jupiler League have witnessed 68 goals at an average of 2.72 per game (1.0 at half-time). They outscored their opponents 36-32 in these games.

    Gent’s last 25 away games in the league have seen 77 goals at an average of 3.08 (1.4 at half-time). They outscored their opponents 43-34 in these games.

    Salient statistics for the football betting predictions

    Head-to-Head (Zulte-Waregem hosts, Gent visitors, 8 matches in all competitions since 18.12.2005):
    Full-time: Both Teams Scoring = 7 times (87.5%)
    Full-time: Over 3.5 Goals = 4 times (50%)
    Half-time: Gent victorious only twice (25%)

    Zulte-Waregem’s last 25 Jupiler League home games since 15.10.2010:
    Full-time: Both Teams Scoring = 18 times (72%)
    Full-time: Over 3.5 Goals = 7 times (28%)
    Half-time: Away team victorious = 5 times (20%)

    Gent’s last 25 Jupiler League away games since 24.10.2010:
    Full-time: Both Teams Scoring = 17 times (68%)
    Full-time: Over 3.5 Goals = 11 times (44%)
    Half-time: Gent victorious = 7 times (28%)

    Identified Value Bets:

    • Value Betting Tip 1: Back Full-time: Over 2.5 Goals (Odds: 1.8; ‘true’ odds: 1.43; Probability of winning the bet: 50.9%; Value: 83.33%).
    • Bet WON

    • Value Betting Tip 2: Lay Half-time Result: Gent (Odds: 3.35; ‘true’ odds: 4.08; Probability: 75.5%; Value: 21.8%).
    • Bet WON

    • Value Betting Tip 3: Back Full-time: Both Teams To Score = “YES” (Odds: 1.66; ‘true’ odds: 1.27; Probability: 78.8%; Value: 31.5%).
    • Bet WON

    • Value Betting Tip 4: Back Full-time: Over 3.5 Goals (Odds: 3.0; ‘true’ odds: 2.33; Probability: 43%; Value: 50.88%).
    • Bet WON

    MATCH RESULT:
    FT – Zulte-Waregem 3-1 Gent
    HT – Zulte-Waregem 2-0 Gent

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    Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 274 Bets, from 07/12/2011 to 30/06/2012 http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/match-previews/soccerwidows-match-preview-results-7-months-274-bets-dec-2011-june-2012/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/match-previews/soccerwidows-match-preview-results-7-months-274-bets-dec-2011-june-2012/#comments Sun, 01 Jul 2012 21:52:57 +0000 http://soccerwidow.com/?p=1853 more »]]> The end of the month has arrived once again and following 29 match analyses encompassing 67 more value bet recommendations, it is time for our usual reckoning.

    June was indeed an exceptional month realising a yield of 16.4%. The formulas and spreadsheets we rely upon for league club games were modified for the neutral venue environment (for most teams) of Euro 2012 with an unprecedented level of success, which led to continuing bank growth:

    Line graph showing bank growth from 7th Dec 2011 to 30th Jun 2012

    Profit & Loss Development of Soccerwidow's Betting Prediction Results up to 30th June 2012

    From this graph, it can clearly be seen that football betting in general is a very volatile venture. The jagged curve tells continual stories of success and failure, but the direction of the curve indicates that the portfolio system of ‘value’ betting tends to play according to statistical expectations, although an individual match may sometimes hold surprises.

    The mathematical advantage or edge (i.e. ‘value’) achieved in June was 55.8% meaning that for every 1 unit lost 1.558 units were recovered. The average winnings per bet were 1.47 units making June from this perspective the best performing month so far.

    Our entire experiment is based on a fixed win/risk staking plan (equal win, equal risk). This staking plan takes probabilities into account, meaning that there is a higher stake (i.e. risk) for bets with a higher chance of winning, and a proportionately reduced stake the lower the chance of winning a bet becomes (i.e. providing for more attempts to get a ‘hit’ at higher odds).

    In essence this means the stakes employed depend upon the odds, but the risk and attainable profit remain constant. Our wagers in this public experiment have therefore always been limited to a maximum risk per bet of 10 units, or to a maximum win of 10 units.

    Fixed Win/Risk Strategy Examples:

    • Back Bets at odds of up to 2.0: Example 1.69; the stake (risk) is 10 units; if the bet wins, the winnings are 6.90 units; if bet loses, then 10 units are lost.
    • Lay Bets at odds of up to 2.0: Example 1.69; winnings are capped at 10 units; if bet wins, the winnings are 10 units; if bet loses, the loss is 6.90 units.
    • Back Bets at odds over 2.0: Example 3.5; winnings are capped at 10 units; if bet wins, the winnings are 10 units; if bet loses, the loss is 4 units.
    • Lay Bets at odds over 2.0: Example 3.5; loss is capped at 10 units; if bet wins, winnings are 4 units; if bet loses, then 10 units are lost.

    The next illustration (click to enlarge, opens in a new tab) shows computations of “Yield”, “ROI” (return on investment), and “Value” (mathematical advantage or “edge”):

    Table summarising overall performance of recommended bets including yield, return on investment, and value achieved

    Evaluation of Recommended Bets up to 30th June 2012 - Bank Growth, Yield, ROI, Mathematical Edge (Value)

    From bet number one on 7th December 2011 to the close of play on 30th June 2012, a total of 274 bets have produced a net profit of 252.81 units from a starting bank of 50 units. The starting bank has been recycled several times with total turnover reaching 2,166.77 units at the end of June.

    The average “Yield” is 11.67% (profit divided by total turnover), equating to an average of 0.93 units won per bet transaction.

    The proportional increase of the 50 units starting bank comes to 505.63% (ROI 1) over 7 months, simply meaning that the bank has ‘quintupled’ in size. The average rate of return per month (ROI 2) calculates to 29.91%.

    In 7 months a total of 694.66 units were lost and 947.47 units won, corresponding to a profit of 252.81 units. The achieved mathematical advantage or ‘value’ therefore equals 36.39% (252.81 units net profit divided by 694.66 units lost in achieving it).

    Evaluation of the Cluster Groups

    Sorting the 274 bets into their respective probability cluster groups shows the corresponding hit-rates have still not always achieved the exact calculated expectations (those highlighted in pink), purely because the sample sizes remain relatively small.

    Nevertheless, the deviations are not huge, except in the ‘90% and above’ cluster group. We mentioned last month that this may be an indication of error in the probability calculations. Unfortunately, time has not permitted us to investigate this anomaly and we have therefore decided to suspend betting in this cluster group and paper-test some adjustments before reintroducing these bets into our recommendations.

    Table showing performance of all bets up to 30th June 2012 banded into probability cluster groups

    All Bets up to 30th June 2012 Banded in Probability Cluster Groups

    The best performing groups were the 70-80% and the 80-90% probability clusters, which contain primarily “Dutch” lay bets, Over 1.5 goals bets, and Under 3.5 goals bet recommendations. Low odds, but high profits.

    Final Proclamation

    Overall, we can say that everything ran as expected.

    There were no real nasty surprises and the games played out more or less statistically correct. Of course, appreciating that not every recommended bet can win helped us construct a betting strategy to make money in spite of this truism.

    As explained in the article Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage it is unrealistic to hope that every bet wins. For example, a 64.6% probability means precisely a 64.6% expected hit-rate; no more and no less! The VALUE lies in the odds (price), not in the hit-rate.

    In the whole seven months since we started publishing match previews, not a single month has finished in the red and, as we have mentioned on several occasions throughout this website, successful value betting is purely a numbers game.

    Although value betting on statistics is one of the most reliable approaches to football betting (and pretty much the same strategy the bookmakers employ), individual events have a habit of producing erratic results from time to time. Therefore you must never drift away from your staking plan and never chase losses.

    Well, that’s the end of our public experiment for now. The time it takes to analyse each game, pick out bet recommendations, publish each article, and follow up with monthly summaries is, we can assure you, a huge burden on our time. However, we have proved a point over the last seven months that with the right tools and the right application it is definitely possible to make money with value betting.

    Go back one month to May’s summary

    If you you are not already aware, Soccerwidow has developed a sophisticated Excel spreadsheet which automatically calculates the probability of bet success and whether the odds for the bet carry positive or negative ‘value’. All of our football betting predictions are based on this tool:

    TRUE ODDS AND VALUE BET DETECTOR SPREADSHEET

    The spreadsheet relies on inputting historical results for the game you are analysing in order to see how accurate the odds are being offered by the market. The formulas do the rest and display the value bets available for more than 100 betting options (including Asian Handicap HT and FT), leaving you to decide which ones to include in your portfolio.
    ]]>
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    Euro 2012 Final: Spain v Italy – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Tips http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/match-previews/euro-2012-final-spain-v-italy-1-7-2012-statistical-match-preview-value-bet-recommendations/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/match-previews/euro-2012-final-spain-v-italy-1-7-2012-statistical-match-preview-value-bet-recommendations/#respond Sat, 30 Jun 2012 14:31:01 +0000 http://soccerwidow.com/?p=1834 more »]]>

    All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option. For this match we used a modified version of the spreadsheet for international tournament games with little or no head-to-head history.

    Gambling without emotion and with ‘value’ on your side is the only way to approach betting for profit. The Soccerwidow spreadsheet combines historical statistics with current betting odds to determine whether a bet carries value, and also shows the percentage likelihood of winning the bet.

    Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 30th June, 2012…


    The ‘Valueless’ Final:

    Barring the FIFA World Cup final itself, the final of the UEFA European Championship is the highest profile match in football and some would argue the tournament as a whole is usually of better quality than the World Cup. Everyone knows that Spain are just one win away from entering the history books by becoming the first team to win three major tournaments in a row, but it is still a fact that no national team has ever achieved this.

    This game is a similar proposition to the one Italy faced against Germany, with a seemingly invincible foe on current form to be overcome, but like Germany, Spain have never beaten Italy in either regulation or extra time in six previous tournament meetings (4 Draws, 2 Italian wins), although they did triumph 4-2 on penalties in the Euro 2008 quarter-finals.

    Looking at the betting odds for this game, many people will have made good profits already from Italy’s price having seen it start at around 5.0 when the market opened, and traded down to a point where it can be laid today (29 hours before kick-off) for 4.0. Not bad work if you can get it! It looks like trading may well be the safest form of making money from this game as understandably, due to its high profile and plenty of accompanying statistical data, the markets have been analysed to the point where there is negative ‘value’ available on most of the reasonably high probability betting options.

    We must therefore advise that ‘value’ betting on this game will be like finding safe passage through a minefield of unattractive options, where not even a coin toss will be weighted in your favour. If we have put you off then fine, we don’t blame you for wanting to keep your powder dry for more advantageous opportunities. If you feel you must gamble with this match, then read on, we do have something for you…

    Salient statistics for the bet recommendations:

    Spain’s last 30 competitive matches abroad (since 18.6.2008):

    • Full-time Over 1.5 Goals: 20 times (66.7%)
    • Last 6 Full-time Scores (most recent first): 0-0; 2-0 (win); 1-0 (win); 4-0 (win); 1-1; 2-0 (win)
    • Average Goals Per Game: 2.43

    Spain’s games on neutral turf within their last 30 competitive matches abroad (19 matches since 18.6.2008):

    • Full-time Over 1.5 Goals: 9 times (47.4%)
    • Last 6 Full-time Scores (most recent first): 0-0; 2-0 (win); 1-0 (win); 4-0 (win); 1-1; 0-0
    • Average Goals Per Game: 1.74

    Italy’s last 30 competitive matches abroad (since 6.9.2006):

    • Full-time Over 1.5 Goals: 24 times (80%)
    • Last 6 Full-time Scores (most recent first): 2-1 (win); 0-0; 2-0 (win); 1-1; 1-1; 1-1
    • Average Goals Per Game: 2.33

    Italy’s games on neutral turf within their last 30 competitive matches abroad (15 matches since 6.9.2006):

    • Full-time Over 1.5 Goals: 10 times (66.7%)
    • Last 6 Full-time Scores (most recent first): 2-1 (win); 0-0; 2-0 (win); 1-1; 1-1; 2-3 (loss)
    • Average Goals Per Game: 2.20


    Identified Value Bets:

    • Value Betting Tip 1: Back Full-time Over 1.5 Goals (Odds: 1.65; Zero or ‘true’ back odds: 1.46; Probability: 68.5%).
    • Bet WON

    • Value Betting Tip 2: Backing Spain at full-time carries ‘value’ at the current price of 2.26, although the ‘zero’ or ‘true’ odds are 2.12 equating to less than 7% value. The chance of success is 47.1%.
    • Bet WON

    • Value Betting Tip 3: Backing both teams to score: “No” carries a little value at odds of 1.72, and the ‘zero’ odds here are 1.66. The value on offer is therefore less than 4% but the probability is 60.2%.
    • Bet WON

    • Value Betting Tip 4: If you fancy a 99% probability bet then backing full-time under 5.5 goals at odds of just 1.02 might appeal, and it even carries value, but just 1%…
    • Bet WON

    MATCH RESULT:
    FT – Spain 4-0 Italy
    HT – Spain 2-0 Italy



    We understand that not all bets will win. Our strategy therefore revolves around the principle of ‘value’ betting (mathematical advantage based on statistical probability) – read the detailed review of our Betting Prediction Results: Dec 2011 – Jun 2012.

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    http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/match-previews/euro-2012-final-spain-v-italy-1-7-2012-statistical-match-preview-value-bet-recommendations/feed/ 0
    Euro 2012: Germany v Italy – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Tips http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/match-previews/euro-2012-germany-v-italy-28-6-2012-statistical-match-preview-value-bet-recommendations/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/match-previews/euro-2012-germany-v-italy-28-6-2012-statistical-match-preview-value-bet-recommendations/#respond Wed, 27 Jun 2012 22:52:01 +0000 http://soccerwidow.com/?p=1813 more »]]>

    All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option. For this match we used a modified version of the spreadsheet for international tournament games with little or no head-to-head history.

    Gambling without emotion and with ‘value’ on your side is the only way to approach betting for profit. The Soccerwidow spreadsheet combines historical statistics with current betting odds to determine whether a bet carries value, and also shows the percentage likelihood of winning the bet.

    Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 27th June, 2012…


    Polished Performance Required:

    Italy aren’t a bad team, it’s just that they haven’t really had a ‘brilliant’ game all tournament but they do have a winning mentality, probably dating back to when they were all ‘Romans’. The Germans on the other hand are also a warrior race and know just as well as their opponents that it will be team work that wins this semi final. What is assured is that both teams will trade blows and try to dominate this game which has all the hallmarks of being the best of the competition to date. According to the stats, Germany are rightly flagged as favourites with their current odds floating around their ‘true’ price of 1.97, so absolutely no value in backing them until their price begins to rise.

    Italy are more than 30% over-priced but statistically have just a 26.3% chance of winning the game, whilst the draw is the least likely outcome at 24.2% probability. Effectively, this means Italy have a 50.5% chance of avoiding defeat in normal time.

    Amazingly, Germany won both halves in 10 (33.3%) of their last 30 competitive matches abroad although they kept a clean sheet in less than half: 14 (46.7%) of the 30 games. On neutral turf the latter figure drops to five (31.3%) clean sheets from 16, meaning their opponents scored in 11 (68.7%) of those games. Italy have allowed only six (20%) clean sheets against them in their equivalent last 30 competitive games abroad, meaning they scored in 24 (80%) of those fixtures. On neutral ground they scored in 10 (66.7%) of their last 15 games.

    Italy have a great record against the Germans who have never beaten the Azzurri in seven European Championship or World Cup games from their first competition meeting in 1962. We said earlier in the tournament that the longer Germany’s winning streak continues (10 games in a row now) the greater are the chances of it ending; it is impossible for them to continue winning every game and at some stage they will fail.

    Salient statistics for the bet recommendations:

    Germany’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 24.3.2007):

    • Full-time Result: Germany wins: 24 (80%); Draws 2 (6.7%); Defeats: 4 (13.3%)
    • Last 6 Results (most recent first): W-W-W-W-W-W
    • Both teams scoring: Yes = 13 times (43.3%)

    Germany’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 24.3.2007):

    • Full-time Result: Germany wins: 12 (75%); Draws 0 (0%); Defeats: 4 (25%)
    • Last 6 Results (most recent first): W-W-W-W-W-L
    • Both teams scoring: Yes = 8 times (50%)

    Italy’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 9.7.2006):

    • Full-time Result: Italy wins: 14 (46.7%); Draws 11 (36.7%); Defeats: 5 (16.7%)
    • Last 6 Results (most recent first): D-W-D-D-D-W
    • Both teams scoring: Yes = 17 times (56.7%)

    Italy’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 9.7.2006):

    • Full-time Result: Italy wins: 3 (20%); Draws 6 (40%); Defeats: 6 (40%)
    • Last 6 Results (most recent first): D-W-D-D-L-D
    • Both teams scoring: Yes = 8 times (53.3%)


    Identified Value Bets:

    • Value Betting Tip 1: Back Draw No Bet: Italy (Odds: 3.45; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 2.77; Probability: 36.1%). Whilst the probability of success may put a few people off, Germany have not drawn a game on neutral ground in over five years (stretching back further than our statistical analysis); either they win or they lose.
    • Bet WON

    • Value Betting Tip 2: Back Both Teams To Score: “Yes” (Odds: 2.14; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 1.97; Probability: 50.8%).
    • Bet WON

    • Value Betting Tip 3: The price for backing the correct score 2-1 to Italy is as high as 19.5 as we write, and holds 120% value with a probability just below 11%. The 1-1 draw is not quite so attractive at 7.6, but the value is still positive at 24% and with almost a 16% chance of coming in. Dutch backing these two correct scores provides combined odds of 5.47, a combined value of 69%, and a 26.5% chance of winning.
    • Bet WON

    MATCH RESULT:
    FT – Germany 1-2 Italy
    HT – Germany 0-2 Italy



    We understand that not all bets will win. Our strategy therefore revolves around the principle of ‘value’ betting (mathematical advantage based on statistical probability) – read the detailed review of our Betting Prediction Results: Dec 2011 – Jun 2012.

    ]]>
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    Euro 2012: Portugal v Spain – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Tips http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/match-previews/euro-2012-portugal-v-spain-27-6-2012-statistical-match-preview-value-bet-recommendations/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/match-previews/euro-2012-portugal-v-spain-27-6-2012-statistical-match-preview-value-bet-recommendations/#respond Tue, 26 Jun 2012 14:34:26 +0000 http://soccerwidow.com/?p=1774 more »]]>

    All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option. For this match we used a modified version of the spreadsheet for international tournament games with little or no head-to-head history.

    Gambling without emotion and with ‘value’ on your side is the only way to approach betting for profit. The Soccerwidow spreadsheet combines historical statistics with current betting odds to determine whether a bet carries value, and also shows the percentage likelihood of winning the bet.

    Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 26th June, 2012…


    Fight to the Death in the Arena:

    Whilst Portugal’s recent competition record on neutral ground is impressive with six wins (54.5%) and two draws (18.2%) from 11 games since the start of Euro 2008, Spain’s stats in the same time period are simply stunning with 14 wins (73.7%) and three draws (15.8%) from their last 19 competitive neutral matches.

    Looking at the scoring stats from these games the teams are closer, especially considering Spain have played almost twice as many games. Portugal have notched 20 and conceded nine (average 2.64 goals per match) (albeit skewed by a 7-0 thumping of North Korea during WC 2010), whilst Spain have racked up 29 and conceded seven (average 1.89 goals per match).

    Spain have kept clean sheets in 17 (56.7%) of their last 30 competitive matches abroad, 13 of these on neutral ground. Portugal can only boast of 12 shutouts (40%) in their equivalent 30 games, with only five of these on neutral turf.

    At half-time, Portugal’s last 30 competitive games abroad have seen 17 draws (56.7%); eight of these (72.7%) were on neutral ground (and six were by a 0-0 scoreline). Spain’s equivalent half-time record is 14 draws (46.7%); 11 of these (57.9%) on neutral territory (and 10 of these by a 0-0 scoreline). Therefore, in competitive games at neutral venues both teams seem to save their performances for the second halves of games.

    Salient statistics for the bet recommendations:

    Portugal’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 6.9.2006):

    • Half-time Result – Portugal wins: 8 (26.7%); Draws: 17 (56.7%); Defeats: 5 (16.7%)
    • Last 6 Half-time Results (most recent first): D-D-W-D-D-L
    • Both teams scoring: No = 16 times (53.3%)

    Portugal’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 6.9.2006):

    • Half-time Result – Portugal wins: 2 (18.2%); Draws: 8 (72.7%); Defeats: 1 (9.1%)
    • Last 6 Half-time Results (most recent first): D-D-L-D-D-D
    • Both teams scoring: No = 7 times (63.6%)

    Spain’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 14.6.2008):

    • Half-time Result – Spain wins: 13 (43.3%); Draws: 14 (46.7%); Defeats: 2 (10%)
    • Last 6 Half-time Results (most recent first): W-D-W-D-W-W
    • Both teams scoring: No = 19 times (63.3%)

    Spain’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 14.6.2008):

    • Half-time Result – Spain wins: 6 (31.6%); Draws: 11 (57.9%); Defeats: 2 (10.5%)
    • Last 6 Half-time Results (most recent first): W-D-W-D-D-D
    • Both teams scoring: No = 15 times (78.9%)


    Identified Value Bets:

    This is another big game that has been analysed by the masses to such an extent that there is little ‘value’ to be exploited in any of the markets.

    • Value Betting Tip 1: Laying the draw at full-time is a good wager to consider at 3.4. The draw ‘back’ price should be 5.41 and the value to be gained is therefore 59% with a probability of winning the lay bet at 81.5%.
    • Bet LOST

    • Value Betting Tip 2: Back Half-time Result = Draw (Odds: 2.1; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 1.71; Probability: 58.5%). Both team’s stats suggest they are ‘2nd half’ teams so we are taking advantage of the market’s pricing ‘error’ here.
    • Bet WON

    • Value Betting Tip 3: Back Both Teams To Score: “No” (Odds: 1.78; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 1.54; Probability: 64.8%). A slightly higher probability bet reflecting how close this game will probably be.
    • Bet WON

    MATCH RESULT:
    FT – Portugal 0-0 Spain
    HT – Portugal 0-0 Spain
    (Spain won 4-2 on penalties, after extra time)



    We understand that not all bets will win. Our strategy therefore revolves around the principle of ‘value’ betting (mathematical advantage based on statistical probability) – read the detailed review of our Betting Prediction Results: Dec 2011 – Jun 2012.

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