1×2 Betting – Soccerwidow http://www.soccerwidow.com Football Betting Maths, Value Betting Strategies Sat, 09 Jun 2018 15:37:56 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.8.6 1×2 HDAFU Tables User Guide: 6 Easy Steps to Find the most Lucrative Betting Systems http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/hdafu-tables-user-guide/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/hdafu-tables-user-guide/#comments Sun, 06 May 2018 01:29:59 +0000 http://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=5826 more »]]> Our HDAFU tables have evolved tremendously over the years. They are a complete statistical analysis of historical performance over the previous five seasons of the Home win, Draw, Away win, Favourite win and Underdog win (H-D-A-F-U). They serve to identify the most profitable odds ranges in each bet type.

To help you understand why we value this product so highly, here is our Definitive Guide for using the 6th Generation tables to their maximum potential.

In order to help you contextualise the screenshots in our examples below, you can download a dummy version of the 2018 Brazil Série A Whole Season Table FOR FREE here.

Please note that this is a full example only, and the mass of formulas which run the complex mechanisms of the calculations have been disabled.

The size of this Excel .XLSX workbook is 989 KB.

>>> free hdafu table download <<<



It’s difficult for us to put into words how important the HDAFU tables are to us and our own betting adventures. But what we can say is that we have complete confidence in them to do their job. And from testing them in a live setting, we know that they are an extremely reliable method of building lucrative betting portfolios.

Quite simply, they are the best and most user-friendly tools available for nailing down value betting systems in every league you apply them to.

They reveal the DNA of a league, and provide a hidden level of detail that makes finding and exploiting the sweet spots so easy and so rewarding.

The next six steps will probably change the way you think about betting…

Step 1 – Observation

By default, the HDAFU tables open on the Data Tab showing the financial summary of each bet type. Here are the figures from an example league.

(Click on the image below to enlarge it in a new tab):

HDAFU Table Data Tab: Whole Season Results Summaries

HDAFU Table Data Tab: Whole Season Results Summaries


The totals along the top row show the effects of betting on every match over five seasons. In our example league the totals are (from left to right) Home win (-7,329), Draw (-835), Away win (+8,236), Favourites (-2,594), and Underdogs (+3,501).

You can see from this graphic that away wins look the most promising backing system with a profit of 8,236 units from 100 unit stakes.

To customise the stake amount enter what you want in the Fixed Stake box at the top of each bet type in the Data Tab.

The image above shows the full five season cold analysis. If you enter a different stake amount the financial values will change, but the percentages will always remain the same. This being the case, we have fixed these percentages as a benchmark to better gauge the improvements we will make with our filtering exercise later.

The Odds Toggle is for testing the effects of the odds you are getting when playing the systems for real – you can ignore it during your analysis.

You can also leave the betting exchange commission rate at zero. Again, use it for backing system monitoring purposes when you start betting on or paper testing your systems of choice.

Okay, we fancy away wins in this particular league but let’s now have a look at the Inflection Points Tab to see if this backs-up our observation.

(Click on the image below to enlarge it in a new tab):

HDAFU Table Inflection Points Tab: Inflection Points Overview

HDAFU Table Inflection Points Tab: Inflection Points Overview


Away wins are certainly financially the most profitable bet type but the profit curve doesn’t really begin rising until odds of 3.30 are reached. Overall profit at this point is 463 units and this rises to a peak of 13,502 units around odds of 8.60.

These two points on the graph would therefore be our two inflection points: Odds of 3.30 where the curve begins to rise; Odds of 8.60 at the pinnacle, the point at which profits begin to fall again.

However, notice there is a big portion of the away wins curve which is a zero-sum game. This ‘hole’ in our profit curve begins around odds of 3.75 (6,653 units). At this point, the curve falls away again, encounters what we call ‘statistical noise’, and only recovers at odds of around 6.52, when the profit figure surmounts its previous high at 7,184.

HDAFU Table Inflection Points Tab: Inflection Points Odds Intervals 3.75 - 6.52

HDAFU Table Inflection Points Tab: Inflection Points Odds Intervals 3.75 – 6.52

In between these two points is the potential for a lot of wasted effort and not a lot of gain.

We can see the extent of this by scrolling down and looking at the inflection point intervals.

(Click on the right-hand image to enlarge it in a new tab):

This image shows the start of the 3.75 odds sector at the top and the end of the 6.52 odds sector at the bottom.

The yellow column indicates the running total of matches up to each cluster of matches.

We can see that our two odds of 3.75 and 6.52 encompass roughly 330 matches – the difference between 1,115 indicated at the 6.52 break-off point and 785 at the starting point of the 3.75 cluster.

That’s 330 bets over a five season period that are simply not worth making; or 66 bets in a season.

HDAFU Table Inflection Points Tab: Inflection Points Odds Intervals 3.30 - 8.60

HDAFU Table Inflection Points Tab: Inflection Points Odds Intervals 3.30 – 8.60

We can see this clearer by looking at the same snapshot between our original inflection points of 3.30 and 8.60.

:(Click on the left-hand image to enlarge it in a new tab)

In this odds range, we have roughly 587 bets (1,221 minus 634). We now know that more than 56% of these (330 bets) are not worthwhile making.

This leaves only 257 bets but the away win profit sectors between the inflection points seem to be split into two areas of the curve: from odds of 3.30 to 3.75 (medium risk system, accounting for around 160 bets), and then from odds of 6.52 to 8.60 (high risk system; around 100 bets).

If we were to continue our analysis of away wins we would eventually see that the three elements (the medium risk sweet spot, the high risk sweet spot, and the statistical noise in-between) combine to give us a bumpy ride.

Our expected hit-rate will be tempered by that area of noise, and yield will be lower because of the size of the zero-sum area and the number of pointless bets within it.

This means a lot of unpaid work to perform, placing many bets that maintain the status quo and not much else. On top of this, the losing streaks will be greater.

Therefore, why not split into two systems in this league?

The synergy we have mentioned before about many systems supporting each other is what makes the HDAFU betting systems so viable.

However, we also mentioned that you should find the single best system in a league to play alongside the other best systems in the other leagues within your portfolio.

In our away win example, we would need to choose the better of the two systems we have identified. Either backing away wins at odds between 3.30 and 3.75, or between 6.52 and 8.60. Choose one or the other, not both.

We recommend never to play multiple systems in the same bet type. The synergy effect is diminished as ultimately, one of the two systems is not the best we can find.

Ideally, we are looking for synergy between the absolute single best systems in each league within our portfolio, without creating a situation where one system supports another within an individual league.

With different bet types in the same league (e.g. 1×2 market and over/under goals market) this is not an issue, but we would go as far as avoiding the conflict of interest between HT and FT 1×2 systems in the same league, for example.

Away wins initially looked great but is there something better?

Have a look once again at the Inflection Points graphs to try and see what it is.

As is typical of an underdog backing profile, the high risk/high return nature of this bet type produces a noisy curve, one full of jagged peaks and troughs. There are only small rising areas to analyse. Anything you can analyse into promising profits will contain few betting opportunities in a season, with long runs of losing bets to cope with.

Backing the favourite has one area between odds of 1.90 and 2.10 but we can see at these odds not a huge profit is created over five seasons (less than 3,500 units).

The home win is a misery for backing. Again, the sweet spot is between 1.90 and 2.10 but the profit is less than 2,000 units.

That leaves us with backing the draw. There is a large, rising area in the curve beginning at draw odds of 3.32 (-2,008 units), and peaking at 3.65 (7,170 units). It represents a potential profit chunk of 9,178 units over five seasons.

This is better illustrated by superimposing our inflection points onto our graph – We are interested in only the portion of the curve in-between the red arrows:

HDAFU Tables: Inflection Points Graphic

The shape of this curve is what you should be looking for when identifying the first system to analyse in your leagues of choice.

It is the classic, gently rising curve from bottom left to top right. It is relatively smooth, with a far smaller amount of statistical noise.

Therefore, this is the bet type we will analyse as our example.

Next Page: Step 2 – Hiding, Sorting & Filtering

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Frequently Asked Questions – HDAFU Tables http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/faqs-hda-1x2-betting-profit-loss-simulation-tables-pre-sales/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/faqs-hda-1x2-betting-profit-loss-simulation-tables-pre-sales/#respond Sat, 05 May 2018 04:57:36 +0000 http://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=6245 more »]]> Here are our readers’ most frequently asked pre-sales questions about the HDAFU Tables for precision 1X2, favourite and underdog betting. Enquiries such as ‘What is the use of the HDAFU Tables?’ or ‘How to buy them and check-out if I don’t have a PayPal account?’, plus many more…

If you can’t find an answer to your particular question, please feel free to ask us directly using the comments section at the bottom of this page. We usually reply within 24 hours.

These FAQ’s refer to the: HDAFU Tables.

However, if you already own HDAFU Tables then you are probably more interested in our SUPPORT FAQs, as they contain a lot of tips and tricks on utilising the tables to build a successful portfolio of bets.

Click on the arrows to reveal the answers.

Popular Questions

What are the HDAFU Tables?

HDAFU stands for Home~Draw~Away~Favourite~Underdog

The tables are powerful Excel spreadsheets presenting a retrospective analysis of the previous five seasons’ betting results, and showing the long-term effects of backing each of the home, draw, away, favourite and underdog bet types.

Unique inflection point graphs make it possible to identify the odds clusters that were/are perennially profitable.

This enables the user to select a ‘sweet spot’ in the odds range to target for betting in the following season.

Producing a whole spread of targeted bets over a number of different leagues is an ideal way of compiling a diversified betting portfolio, effectively emulating the bookmakers’ own method. 😉

Have you tried this method before producing the tables for sale and do you think someone can succeed with this method in the long-term?

Yes, and yes you can!

The HDAFU simulation tables have undergone a series of expert developments since they were first launched in 2012 following our article: Home – Draw – Away: Systematic Betting.

Today’s tables are focused on inflection point graphs to visualise profit and loss results trends, making it easy to spot the odds clusters to concentrate betting strategies upon, and also identifying those to avoid.

Here’s a video article where Soccerwidow explains Inflection Points and employing them to find a strategy for producing long-term and consistent profits.

Soccerwidow’s approach is very much an holistic one (based on the synergy of the whole rather than the performance of individual bets), which is strongly evidenced by our flagship product, The Fundamentals of Sports Betting Course explaining the art of odds calculation and the dynamics of the bookmaker market.

Understanding the bookmaker business model is key to optimising any portfolio of bets and we explain in detail how to use our HDAFU simulation tables for recognising and building profitable 1X2 betting strategies from a selection of major European leagues in our article, How to Compile a Winning Portfolio.

The HDAFU tables are a product of more than six years’ development and, for the seasoned punter wishing to progress to a more scientific and professional level, are an invaluable tool to help select what is worth betting on and what to avoid.

Go here for a range of explanatory articles full of tips and tricks to aid your understanding of the concept behind targeted 1X2 betting.

Is it really true that past statistics can be used to develop a winning strategy?

Yes, this is not only true but actually the only way to develop a winning strategy.

Strictly speaking, without knowledge of prior events, it is virtually impossible to predict with any degree of accuracy what is likely to happen in the future. Predicting something is already pretty difficult using just historical data (i.e. past experience) but without it, what else can a judgement be based on?

The whole bookmaker business model is based around statistics and the only way of ensuring a level playing field is to use statistics too.

How much do you earn based on your theories? Do you have any statistics for your betting history?

For an idea of the potential of these tables please refer to the Summer League and Winter League simulations based on £100 flat stakes. The statistics for both successful campaigns are available for download in their respective articles.

Why are you publishing these tables and don’t keep the secret to yourself?

When Elena Schaelike founded Soccerwidow back in 2011, her aim was (and still is) to teach gamblers about bookmaker maths and market dynamics to reveal how bookmakers make money and why most most gamblers don’t.

Educating gamblers to understand financial markets, training their emotions to stay in control, and teaching how to approach betting as a business and not as a casual activity are the main pillars of Soccerwidow’s ethos.

The knowledge Soccerwidow provides might well be considered within betting circles as being ‘secret’, but honestly speaking, mathematical formulas and the practical use of statistics are not classified information.

The cloak and dagger image of bookmakers is therefore a total myth: the mystery is nothing more than the more mathematically educated bookies making money from a mass of less educated punters.

Isn’t there a risk that the system will cease to work one day?

No, not really.

Firstly, the HDAFU Tables are not a ‘system’ per se, but they are a source of very useful information that each person will use differently.

Secondly, there are many different leagues, each containing several ‘sweet’ spots (different opportunities to take advantage of).

Thirdly, the tables reflect three different ‘positions’ to choose from in each league: whole of season analysis; first half of season analysis; second half of season analysis.

Lastly, there are many HDAFU Table users, each employing their own favoured strategy.

Combining these factors together means that there are countless variations possible.

Therefore, the chances of two people selecting exactly the same leagues and then selecting exactly the same systems from those leagues is highly unlikely. The chances of each then placing exactly the same set of bets at exactly the same prices is negligible.

Every individual user is different. Everyone’s attitude towards risk is different, and everyone’s tastes, preferences and choices are different.

Therefore it is safe to say that every user’s ‘system’ will be different from the next.

>>> £20k in 214 days: case study <<<

Product-Related Questions

May I ask if the HDAFU Tables are so called ‘value betting’ or ‘system betting’?

The HDAFU Tables have been developed to allow the user to develop a system. Therefore, strictly speaking, they fall into the category of ‘system betting’.

System betting is a predetermined selection of bets that, when combined, represent a profitable betting portfolio. Systems allow the gambler to have an ‘edge’ or an ‘advantage’. Of course, any system that works well contains ‘value’, otherwise it wouldn’t work at all.

System betting requires follow-through from the start to the finish of a campaign (or to a suitable closure point in profit), preferably without missing bets on any matches included in the system. For example, if the system requires the placement of 19 bets through the whole season based on a certain selection criterion (e.g. all home games of a particular EPL team), then all 19 bets really should be placed for best results!

However, ‘system betting’ must not be confused with ‘value betting’.

Value Betting is a totally different approach. A value bet is one where the ‘true’ chances of the individual bet winning are greater than the odds suggest. Identifying bets as ‘value bets’ involves comparing the market odds against own calculations. This approach relies on perennially choosing over-priced or under-priced bets to back or lay respectively.

Contrary to system betting, value betting doesn’t require follow-through from the start to the finish of a campaign but it requires calculation of each individual match to compile a portfolio of bets for each round. With system betting, once you identify your selection criteria (= system) you simply stick to it religiously.

What is the use of the inflection points?

The HDAFU Tables contain inflection points graphs and these are the most powerful tools the tables have to offer. In short, they pinpoint profitable patterns.

Inflection points are the points at which the curvature or concavity on a curve changes from plus to minus or, from minus to plus: Translated into layman’s language, the turning points on the profit/loss graph where profits turn to losses and where losses turn to profits.

In the profit zones, it is therefore possible to identify the odds at which profits start and where they end.

Bookmakers have to reduce their prices in certain odds ranges to maximise their profits. This is mainly due to a high demand from punters on certain results allowing the bookies to sell under-priced bets on a wide scale.

However, as punters expect close to 100% probability when all three bets (1X2) are summed up, bookmakers have to increase their odds on the other side of the bet.

For example, a bet that should have been priced for the favourite to win at odds of 1.50 (66.7%) is sold for 1.40 (71.3%): this is an ‘undervalued’ bet and guarantees the bookmaker a long-term profit and the punter a long-term loss.

To ‘balance’ this discrepancy out, the bet on the underdog that should normally be priced at odds of 3.50 (28.6%) is levered up to 3.75 (26.7%): as a result this bet becomes a ‘value bet’, producing a long-term profit to the gambler.

The inflection point graphs shows these turning points visually and you must remember that they are different for each bet type. Every league is also different, as is the market pressure (demand for bets) in each. For example, punters concentrating on the EPL prefer different odds clusters than those betting on the Bundesliga, and so on.

Are HDAFU tables and methods to build a system also applicable to group stage competitions, such as Libertadores, Champions League and Europa League? Or even to European or World Cup Qualifiers?

Sadly not.

It should be understood that tournament or cup betting of this nature is a hugely volatile undertaking, with teams from different leagues playing each other, or club teams or national sides that have never faced each other before suddenly thrust into competition.

Betting on domestic leagues is a far more stable environment, with a data set made up of plenty of teams having played each other on a perennial basis. System betting is far more suited to leagues than any other form of competition.

You are showing in your articles ‘League Campaigns’ complete reports for past seasons. Can you provide me with your picks for the forthcoming and/or current next season or do I need to create a portfolio myself?

Sorry, we are not a picks site and never will be. We provide all of the tools you’ll need to create your own portfolios, judge the expected returns and spread of risk, and then to select your own bets. In this way, you are in complete control of your personal campaign rather than blindly following someone else’s ‘system’.

Just wondering what would happen next season in terms of updates, do you provide instructions on how to update the tables or would I be required to buy new updated tables?

The HDAFU Tables do require updating on an annual basis. The oldest season’s data set is dropped and figures from the season just finished get added to retain a data set comprising the last five consecutive season’s results. Furthermore, we upgrade the tables each season, adding new tools and findings, with a constant eye on making them as straightforward and easy to use as possible.

If you are an Excel wizard, then you may be able to compile your own tables, but you will not find all the information and formulas we use when compiling them in any of our completed tables. (Would you even be able to tell if your own tables were providing false results?).

And of course, we know what we are doing and check everything religiously before publishing the tables for sale. We therefore recommend you buy new tables every season, or use your own at your own peril!

Lastly, when buying any products from us you contribute to the further development of Soccerwidow. Any income received is used for example, to pay writers, add well-researched explanatory articles to the website, provide customer support and reply in depth to readers’ questions.

So, are you ready to support your favorite betting advisory website? The best way to support Soccerwidow is to get involved. Tailgating us (bookmark and share with your friends), cheering if you find something useful (leave a comment) and making financial donations (purchase at least one product) are all great ways to help us spend more time helping you.


Purchase Questions

I am keen to get some tables. Could you please advise which three would be the best ones to start with?

There is no straight answer to that question because each bettor has personal preferences or limitations regarding his/her use of different bookmakers and/or choice of leagues. To decide which leagues to buy, you’ll have to do your own homework and check that your range of accessible bookmakers/exchanges is compatible with the leagues you choose.

And there really aren’t any ‘good’ or ‘bad’ choices – each league contains something of interest.

Ideally, your portfolio of bets over the course of a season should be at least 500 in number in order to obtain an effective level of diversification. Depending on the leagues you have in your portfolio of bets there will be 30 to 40 betting rounds per annum, which would require on average approximately 15 bets per round.

If the system is chosen properly you should be able to finish each round with a positive return but, in order to reach the 500 bets threshold, you will need several different leagues and we recommend a minimum of five leagues to begin with.

But the choice is yours, dependent on your time zones, access to liquidity in your chosen leagues, and even personal experiences/taste. What is sure is that you will find a selection criteria worthwhile pursuing in every league. Sometimes there are several systems to choose from in a single league.

You say that many of the smaller leagues contain the higher amount of value. Which are the best candidates to bet on?

Bookmakers and punters alike tend to analyse the most popular leagues in the most depth (those with the greatest liquidity), so that markets odds are the most accurate in leagues such as the EPL and often contain little value for the bettor.

Another big challenge with system betting is, that at some point the bookmakers will have adjusted for systems (if they recognise them, of course) to make them no longer profitable. This means that a formerly well-performing system may cease to be profitable in the future, which happens more often in popular leagues than in less popular ones.

The less popular leagues have a tendency to contain better value not because they are improperly calculated by the bookmakers, but because there is less competition between value bettors and system bettors, and therefore less reason for bookmakers to adjust their odds.

In effect, it really depends on which leagues you have access to and in which ones you would like to specialise. It’s all about diversification and we encourage you not only to focus on popular leagues like the EPL but to diversify your portfolio of bets with smaller leagues as well.

Am I committing a cardinal sin by buying tables after the seasons have started? Will that disadvantage me at all?

We have written an article on why it is a good decision to analyse each half of a season separately, and indeed, each HDAFU league for sale comes with three tables: Whole of season; 1st half of season; 2nd half of season.

Of course, buying tables before a season starts or right at its beginning provides access to systems that can be run as whole-of-season vehicles, or 1st half of season systems. But you will find plenty of systems that are lucrative in the 2nd half of a season too.

For purchasers wishing to buy tables at or after the midway point in a league’s season, although you will effectively be paying full price for half a season, our online store will automatically send you, free of charge, the full and updated (and usually upgraded) tables for the following season just as soon as they are published. This will provide you with one and-a-half seasons’ opportunities for the price of one full season.

The ideal times to begin betting are at the starts of both halves of the season, but buying a table midway through the 1st half provides plenty of time to analyse for 2nd half systems, and buying during the 2nd half of a season gives plenty of time to get used to using them.

Since all leagues are more or less half way through the season, I was wondering if you are selling only 1/3 of the spreadsheets as well? Let’s say I want to buy only 2nd half analysis of one of the summer leagues (with more or less 1/3 of the overall price), would that be possible?

Timing your purchase is not critical as we email to all clients who bought Tables in the second half of a season the updated and usually upgraded tables for the following season free of charge just as soon as they are published.

Please bear in mind that it is always helpful to see all three analyses when forming your final judgments.

>>> £10k in 178 days: case study <<<

Ordering & Delivery

Do you offer discounts?

Of course, we do!

Following discount codes apply for multiple purchases:
Buy 5, 6, 7, 8 or 9 leagues = 20% Discount (coupon code: SW20)
Buy 10 leagues = 30% Discount (coupon code: SW30)
Buy 11 or more leagues = 35% Discount (coupon code: SW35)

Please email us direct at sales[at]Soccerwidow[dot]com for quotations on all bulk order enquiries if you wish to ourchase more than 15 tables.

How can I pay for the tables? I have neither a PayPal account nor a credit card.

Details of alternative payment options can be found here: Payment Options. They include Skrill (Moneybookers), Neteller and bank transfer (EFT).

When filling out my address details in the shopping cart order form, the field ‘State/Province’ is mandatory. I cannot see states or provinces from my country.

Try pressing the F5 button to refresh your screen. Failing that, clear your cache and refresh again. If the problem persists, please contact us.

What is the price equivalence in USD?

To find out the exchange rate please follow this link to Google, which gives you the exchange rate of the day.

I live in Italy; if I understand you correctly, the purchase price for the EPL table is therefore £35.00 * 1.22 = £42.70. Is that right?

Yes, this is correct. Soccerwidow Ltd is obliged in accordance with applicable law to charge Value Added Tax (VAT) on sales of digital products and services to customers within the European Union (EU).

The VAT rate applied to these products and services is based on the location of the customer (point of sale). See the current EU VAT Rates.

Help with the Checkout

Open the scroll down list and click a league to highlight it.

Click on the Add to Cart button to include the item in your shopping basket.

Click Continue Shopping to add more items to your cart.

When you are ready to checkout, add your discount code (coupon code) if applicable (see multiple purchase discounts below), and click on Update Cart to register your discount.

Enter your personal details before clicking Continue Checkout at the bottom of the window.

You will then be given a choice of paying with PayPal or your credit card (via Stripe).

Contact us if you wish to pay via Skrill, Neteller or bank transfer.

Upon payment, download links for the files you have purchased will be automatically sent to your email address.

When will my credit card be charged?

Your credit card will be charged at the time your order is placed.

Is it safe to use my credit card on your site?

Yes, it is safe.

For processing orders we use the services of GetDPD which is a fully PCI Compliant Service Provider. During the checkout process you will be offered to choose payment by Paypal or credit card.

If you choose credit card, then the platform integrated with GetDPD is Stripe; here is their security documentation.

Can I cancel my order?

As long as you have not paid there is no order. You can always return to your shopping cart and simply delete any items you don’t wish to see in your shopping cart.

However, once you have paid you will get the product download link delivered immediately to your inbox. As long as you don’t download the product(s) you have a cancellation period of 14 days and the right of a full return. Otherwise, once downloaded, there are no returns for digital content.

If you have made a genuine mistake, it’s worth contacting us to see if you can get a refund. Normally, we will offer an exchange for another product or supply a discount code for future purchases.

How long will it take my order to arrive?

As soon as you have paid you will get the product download link delivered immediately to your inbox.

You will receive an email from GetDPD, our digital delivery partner.

Should your download link not arrive within 10 minutes after purchasing, please check your spam folder. We do sometimes receive reports from our clients that GetDPD emails land there occasionally. You can play it safe and allow within your email program emails with the endings: digitalproductdelivery.com (GetDPD) and soccerwidow.com (us).

‘Allowing’ communications from digitalproductdelivery.com and soccerwidow.com is actually quite important because we do upgrade products from time to time and you certainly don’t want to miss the free download link we will send out to buyers.

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Frequently Asked Questions – Make the Most of Your HDAFU Tables http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/faqs-hdafu-tables-support-after-sales/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/faqs-hdafu-tables-support-after-sales/#respond Fri, 20 Apr 2018 05:12:45 +0000 http://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=6259 more »]]> Here are the most frequently asked support questions from our customers about using the HDAFU Tables for 1X2, favourite and underdog betting.

Below you will find many answers about utilising them to the maximum of their powers to help you develop your own successful 1X2 betting system.

If you can’t find an answer to your particular question, please feel free to ask us directly using the comments section at the bottom of this page. We usually reply within 24 hours.

These FAQs are primarily for HDAFU Table owners. The questions refer to 1X2 System Betting in connection with our HDAFU Tables.

For beginners looking for a taste of the HDAFU Tables before buying or with questions such as how to check-out in the online store, then please refer to our Frequently Asked Questions – HDAFU Tables – PRE SALES.

Click on the arrows to reveal the answers.

Popular Questions

Is there a time restriction on the usefulness of the HDAFU tables?

The tables simulate the profits and losses by betting type for the last five complete seasons if choosing the same bet type for every game of the season. Therefore, the ‘natural’ cut-off point is the end of the following season when the tables have to be re-calibrated.

Simulating the profit/losses when betting on the same outcome over the last five seasons, the tables show a picture of the likely (expected) distribution for the forthcoming season.

If the bettor chooses a distribution which is equally spread over the year (e.g. underdogs in the German Bundesliga with odds between 4.0 and 17.0), then it doesn’t really matter when the systematic betting starts.

The HDAFU tables are a great help at any time throughout the season to provide focus upon profitable areas within your chosen league and allow you to refine your final bet selections.

Further reading:
Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage: Explained
Avoid Placing Bets at the Start of Season

What is the relationship between the HDAFU tables and the Value Bet Detector?

The HDAFU tables simulate profit/losses when betting systematically on one specific bet type, e.g. backing the home win, the draw, the away win, the favourite or the underdog. The Value Bet Detector is an odds and probability calculation tool for individual/particular matches of interest.

Both tools originate from the time Soccerwidow wrote match previews for Betfair and needed to identify games containing value bets for analysis. Here is a summary of those predictions.

The HDAFU tables were initially developed as a tool to recognise clusters of matches that were far more likely to contain value bets, and thus provide filtered sets of matches to preview.

We often receive questions such as, “Can the HDAFU tables and the Value Calculator support each other?” or, “What is the relevance of the HDAFU tables?” or, “Which methodology is better?”

Ultimately, both products are tools for odds calculation and understanding the betting market. The Value Bet detector is an analysis tool for individual matches; the HDAFU simulation tables is better for systematic betting in larger numbers.

The main purposes of the HDAFU tables is to identify value in bets in the long run. If you have doubts about a system or you like more accuracy, then you can use the Value Calculator to test out individual bets in your portfolio which have already been selected on the basis of the HDAFU tables. If a bet has value, both tools will discern that the bet has value.

One tool (Value Calculator) is simply more precise (but laborious to use) than the other (HDAFU Tables) but they can be used in tandem to some extent in order to sharpen the edge that you get.

For example, pick all your bets using the HDAFU tables. Then, if a particular system is doing very poorly (e.g. favourites), cross-check the bets you’ve chosen with the value calculator before placing them.

Further reading:
How do Bookmakers Tick? How & Why do they Set Their Odds as they do?
How Bookmakers’ Odds Match Public Opinion

How do I structure a portfolio and what is the best size for it?

“A portfolio is a package of bets where extensive analysis has determined the choices (picks)… This is an essential part of the whole betting strategy in order to reduce the risks of losing by diversifying.”

Now focus on the main expressions: extensive analysis… determined choices… whole betting strategy… reduce risks… and lastly… diversifying.

Actually, there is nothing more to say. Just spend some quality thinking time on it.

It totally depends on personal preferences, on the availability of betting markets to you, on your risk awareness, your understanding of probabilities and statistics, and finally, using all of this combined knowledge to make your best personal judgement, never losing sight of the fact that the bottom line is making profits.

Further reading:
Calculating Odds for League Newcomers is Unpredictable
1×2 Football Betting – How to Compile a Winning Portfolio

Are the HDAFU tables for both, back betting and lay betting?

Yes. Although the HDAFU tables directly simulate what happened from a backing perspective over the last five seasons, they are obviously reversible and provide a sound benchmark for formulating lay betting strategies.

Large positive figures and rising curves within the tables indicate promising back betting opportunities, whilst large negative falling curves point to potential lay strategies.

For example, if favourites in a particular league are vastly under-priced, then you can lay them. The underdogs in that particular league will then be over-priced, which would present a back bet strategy.

However, these two strategies cannot be mixed because in effect, you would be gambling on the same outcome, i.e., the favourite not to win.

Another thing to take into consideration when deciding whether laying or backing is that laying can only be done via exchanges and they charge commission, whilst backing can be done via a huge range of bookmakers without any commission fee. Of course, this only works if you have access to the bookmakers that regularly offer the highest prices, especially for underdogs.

Quite a bit of homework will be required in that direction before you’ll be able to make informed decisions.

The HDAFU tables come with an odds toggle as well as an exchange commission toggle so that the user can adjust the base figures where necessary – This is of great importance to those wishing to accurately analyse lay strategies.

Further reading:
1×2 Betting System: Analysis of HDA Data and Strategy Development – LAY THE DRAW
1X2 Betting System – Staking the Underdog

Why is concentrating on bet types more profitable than betting on teams?

The answer to this question is simple psychology, which often defeats the average punter.

There are millions of people who follow one or another team. They read all the news available, discuss form, players and managers, and everything else there is to think about when a match involving their team is coming up.

There are plenty of “must win” situations, and even if the odds seem a little short, bets are still placed on the team they support to win the game. Both reliance on luck and a lot of hope goes into each game.

Unfortunately, gut feelings are very often a false friend and team news also has no relevance to the ‘true odds’ of a game; little wonder that there are more losing punters than winners.

The HDAFU tables help the gambler to disconnect all emotions from betting. The figures show very plainly where to concentrate when compiling a betting system portfolio for profit.

Further reading:
Finding Betting Odds Inflection Points
Half-time Results are more Predictable than Full-time

What do you recommend to read for better understanding of the HDAFU tables?

HDAFU Tables Knowledge Base

1X2 Betting System – Staking the Underdog
How to Compile a Winning Portfolio
Finding Betting Odds Inflection Points
Odds Toggle Function

How do I get support?

You can always ask any questions via the comment functions at the bottom of any article in this blog. However, please try first to find an answer to your question using the search function on the top right. There are hundreds of articles to read and knowledge to acquire from.

If you cannot find a satisfying answer to your question, then post it in the closest corresponding article on the topic. This is free of charge for you. You will receive our answer submitted directly to your inbox, with no need for continuous checking.

In addition, if you subscribe to a post which interests you, then you will also receive questions and replies other readers have posted on the same article, and of course, our replies too.

Can I e-mail you with any questions? I would like you to check if I have chosen the right portfolio.

Please understand that we cannot provide free e-mail support. There are millions of punters in this world, all working hard to find the golden egg. The low price for the tables simply doesn’t allow us to establish a support center and employ support staff.

Therefore, please first try to find an answer to your question on our website and if you can’t, then ask your questions in the comments section at the foot of the most relevant HDAFU article you can find on the Soccerwidow site. We aim to reply within 24 hours. This service is, of course, free of charge.

However, you may prefer individual coaching; this can be done via email, Skype or even in person. Should you be interested in personalised tuition then please outline exactly what you are trying to achieve and email us for a quote: sales[at]soccerwidow[dot]com. Note that we are currently based in Tenerife.

>>> 1×2 hdafu tables user guide <<<

Trouble-shooting

I tried to post a comment on your blog yesterday and today also (several times), but every time it shows some kind of error (time out).

The problem lies with the caching of the site to speed it up for visitors. Unfortunately, this means that the Captcha is occasionally also cached and therefore it shows a “time out” message if not refreshed. The solution for that error message is to click the “refresh” button: This generates a new Captcha and the troublesome ‘Time Out’ message will then disappear.

I purchased some tables but I have not received the download link for the item.

Please check your Spam folder; sometimes our automated emails from GetDPD appear there. If you can’t find it please email to support[at]soccerwidow[dot]com, and we will get it sorted.

My download link has expired. Is a reactivation possible?

The download time limit is set to two weeks from the moment you purchase. The reason being that customers have a cancellation period of 14 days with the right of a full return as long as they haven’t downloaded the product within this period.

Therefore, if you have not downloaded your product, after a period of two weeks has expired you can either apply for a refund or send an email to support[at]soccerwidow[dot]com for a link reactivation.

However, we sometimes get reports that the download link was received straight away but after opening it, a message appears stating that the download is ‘expired’. This is usually a problem associated with your browser. Please clean your cache and press the F5 button to refresh the screen.

Another request we occasionally receive is from buyers who have lost their original product or forgotten to download it, and then many months later wish to reactivate the download link. We are really sorry, but our grace period is 6 months only. After this time a fee of £10 will be charged for us to trace you in the system and manually reactivate the purchase.

I just downloaded the tables but there seems to be a problem with opening the spreadsheets. Is there a trick?

The tables are in Excel.xlsx format and can be opened without problems by all versions of Excel from 2010 onwards, plus any open source software (e.g. Open Office) capable of handling the same requirements.


>>> case study: underdog betting <<<

Questions about the Timing of Bets

I am wondering about the season split in the leagues. When does the second half start? For example, Finland league has 12 teams and they play 33 rounds; USA has their own system with play-offs; Sweden has 30 games per team, and so on…

To answer this in full we have produced a League Calendar detailing when each league starts, when each stops (for its winter break where applicable), when each league begins its 2nd half, and when each league finishes.

In addition, you will find detailed advice as to which leagues include play-offs and which don’t.

The usual rule is if a league involves all of its teams in a play-off round where every team plays an equal number of games (i.e. without knock-out rounds) then these games are included in the system. Leagues such as the M.L.S., which has a knock-out system of play-offs, finishes so far as the HDAFU Tables are concerned at the end of the final round of league games.

The analysis on the HDAFU tables is based on the best closing odds. When is the best time to place the bets? Just before the game starts and then make a bet with the bookie who offers the highest odds?

Yes, the HDAFU data set comprises the highest odds available at the close of the ante post market, just before each of the matches started.

The optimum time to place bets is therefore in the final hour before kick-off, after team news has been released.

For a detailed summary of bet placement criteria, refer to page 5 of the HDAFU Tables User Guide article.

You advise to place bets always within the last hour before kick-off. How can that be done, especially when you also bet on MLS, Brazil, and Japan? Whole round of matches can be kicking off all night long, every 1 or 2 hours over there; and when the next day breaks it’s time for Europe… Is it ok to bet earlier than 1 hour before kick-off? Did you try to run an analysis what happens when you bet earlier than 1 hour before kick-off? For example, on the evening before the match?

Of course, if a match falls comfortably between your two inflection points, it will not matter how the odds move in the run up to kick-off, so many bets can be placed well in advance of the start of games.

Again, refer to page 5 of the HDAFU Tables User Guide article for more detailed advice.

For UK/ European Clients: Realistically I’m not going to be awake when the MLS matches are kicking off (and possibly not for the frequent 5am kick-offs in the J-League) and I’m wondering how essential it is that bets are placed close to kick-off? Would I be giving myself a problem placing MLS and some J-League bets before I went to bed (I’m UK based, so MLS bets would be going on 3 to 4 hours in advance of kick off, with J-League 5ams more like 8 hours)?

Please refer to page 5 of the HDAFU Tables User Guide article for more detailed advice on these situations.


Miscellaneous Questions

Would it help to add in more seasons to the analysis?

No, five seasons’ data are plenty. Any less, the population size becomes less significant. Any more, historical results become less relevant to today’s teams. Five seasons’ data are usually an optimum amount for any analysis.

Would it help to weight the seasons in any way?

With just five seasons’ data in use, it makes more sense to compare apples with apples rather than dilute the results with some form of weighting mechanism.

Ideally, it is preferable to see if there has been an anomalous season during the last five, because there is always the likelihood of repetition.

If the seasons analysed have been ‘smoothed’ by any weighting criteria it is likely that the worst case scenario will no longer be evident, or at least shown only in a watered down form.

What do you recommend as the starting bank for a cycle with £100 per bet?

This really depends upon the longest losing streak you expect to endure over the course of your campaign.

We have operated with just £2,000 as a starting bank for £100 stakes, during a season where the portfolio was almost constantly in profit. But we cannot provide recommendations as everyone’s portfolio of bets (and expected winning/losing streaks) will be different.

Do you think this would work using only an exchange – Betfair – for placing bets?

Yes, of course. But to simulate the effects of betting exchange commission on the expected results, you will need to enter a commission rate percentage at the top of each bet type in the data tab of the HDAFU Tables when carrying out your analyses. This type of system betting would also be ideal for betting bots and other automated bet placing software.

When you really start to make some money, I read on the Internet that the gambling offices limit your bets or start to do difficult. Is that true?

Yes, this is unfortunately sometimes the case, but sharp bookmakers such as Pinnacle, and betting exchanges such as Betfair, Smarkets and Matchbook, will never limit or close your accounts.

I have a tricky question: what happens if “a lot of users” start to use these methods at the same time, finding the same spots for an eventual profit? Wouldn’t these strategies start to become obsolete?

Because the choice is yours and because there are usually several different strategies to opt for in many of the leagues, it is unlikely that any two people will have exactly the same portfolios. It is also unlikely that people will be using the same stakes.

Therefore, irregular betting patterns really shouldn’t be an issue as far as the bookmakers are concerned.

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Understanding the Settings in Oddsportal http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/understanding-oddsportal-settings/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/understanding-oddsportal-settings/#comments Thu, 15 Feb 2018 21:16:08 +0000 http://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=6151 more »]]> The only free source of historical, time-stamped odds available for a range of sports (not just soccer), comes courtesy of www.oddsportal.com.

From a football perspective, although we personally limit ourselves to analysing only the previous five seasons’ data with the Soccerwidow HDAFU Tables, or the previous 10 calendar years’ match results with the Soccerwidow Value Calculator, data on Oddsportal is in fact available for the last 20 seasons or more in leagues with enough popularity and longevity, such as the English Premier League.

Registering with Oddsportal

Signing-up is simple and places no obligation on you whatsoever. Our own account was set up many years ago and in all that time we have received no emails of any kind from Oddsportal, its partners, or any associated spam, a rarity following sign-ups of any nature these days.

Oddsportal’s priority is to achieve sign-ups via their site to the bookmakers they feature in order to earn affiliate commission from those customers. You don’t have to sign-up with any bookmakers, but you can continue to use all of Oddsportal’s features as a registered member.

However, if you choose not to register for an account, you will be restricted to seeing and exploring the odds of just a small selection (usually 14-16 in number) of the 80+ bookmakers Oddsportal features at any one time.

As an aside, Soccerwidow is not affiliated in any way with Oddsportal but owing to their importance in the grand scheme of things, we are always happy to recommend them.

Oddsportal Settings

Once you have registered and signed-in to your account, you will need to customise your Oddsportal layout. In the top right hand corner of the home page you will see the settings button illustrated with a small cog symbol ⚙ (next to the “logout” button).

You will then see the various settings options. Here is a screenshot showing Soccerwidow’s settings, which we use to facilitate our own data scraping and odds checking:

Oddsportal Settings ScreenshotOddsportal Settings Screenshot

Notes:

  • The “Primary Type of Odds” setting refers to what you see when you open any individual game. If you choose the AH (Asian Handicap) O/U (Over/Under), or any of the other options, then that bet type tab will be the first you see. However, it will always be the 1X2 odds displayed when initially opening a league.
  • It is usually quicker to see which bookmaker is offering the best odds if you “Sort bookmakers by” bookmaker payout. The bookmaker list of the matches you open will then appear roughly in descending odds order. The highest 1X2 odds time-stamped most recently will usually be in the top half of the list. (But of course, usually no one bookmaker will be offering best price on all three outcomes, so you will have to hunt for them). Here’s a quick example of bookmaker payout order:


Oddsportal Bookmaker Payout Order ScreenshotOddsportal Bookmaker Payout Order Screenshot

Next Page: My Bookmakers Tab; Problem Bookmakers; Manage My Leagues

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2018 Summer League HDAFU Tables: Standard Deviation Adjustments http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/2018-summer-league-hdafu-tables-standard-deviation-adjustments/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/2018-summer-league-hdafu-tables-standard-deviation-adjustments/#comments Tue, 23 Jan 2018 20:53:18 +0000 http://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=6140 more »]]> In the quest for further accuracy using the HDAFU Tables to compile successful portfolios, the forthcoming 2018 Summer League campaign now features Inflection Point adjustments using Standard Deviation technique.

What is Standard Deviation and how does it help?

Standard deviation is a measure used to quantify the amount of variation within a set of data values. It measures how far a set of numbers are spread out around the mean, or average value. In this case, five seasons’ odds data.

Calculating the standard deviation values takes into consideration larger deviations from the mean. In other words, the ‘outlier’ values; those that are furthest away from the mean.

Thus, standard deviation provides us with a ‘margin for error’ allowance and also a more rounded perspective of the statistical conclusions to be formed. In short, standard deviation provides us with a wider safety net for predicting future results.

2018 Summer League Standard Deviation Adjustment Figures

Once you have calculated the two inflection points (see User Guide), use the standard deviation tables below to adjust these figures to provide a wider, more accurate scope for your predictions:

Summer League Inflection Points Standard Deviation Adjustment FiguresSummer League Inflection Points Standard Deviation Adjustment Figures

Random Example Calculations

Example 1: Brazil Home Wins – 2nd Half Season Analysis.

Let’s say your chosen system is home wins in Brazil for the second half of the Série A season. Your two inflection points are 1.98 to 2.56.

  1. Divide both figures by 1 to find the implied probabilities of the odds:
    1/1.98 = 0.50505, or 50.505%
    1/2.56 = 0.39062, or 39.062%
  2. Lose the percentage signs for the time being from the implied probability figures:
    Lower odds/higher probability threshold becomes: 50.505
    Higher odds/lower probability threshold becomes: 39.062
  3. Look up the adjustment value in the table above. The middle table shows the second halves of each Summer League season. The home win value for Brazil is 0.677
  4. ADD the home win value of 0.677 to the lower odds’ threshold: 50.505 + 0.677 = 51.182
  5. SUBTRACT the home win value of 0.677 from the higher odds’ threshold: 39.062 – 0.677 = 38.385
  6. Add the percentage sign back on and convert both figures back into odds values. Round-up or down during this step only:
    1/51.182% = 1.953, which rounds-down to 1.95
    1/38.385% = 2.605, which rounds-up to 2.61

The new inflection point range adjusted for standard deviation is therefore 1.95 to 2.61.


Example 2: Sweden Underdogs – Whole Season Analysis.

Inflection points: 4.16 and 7.20

  1. 1/4.16 = 0.24038, or 24.038%
    1/7.20 = 0.13888, or 13.888%
  2. 24.038 and 13.888
  3. The bottom table shows the Whole Season adjustment values for each league. In this case, Sweden’s standard deviation adjustment is 0.420
  4. 24.038 + 0.420 = 24.458
  5. 13.888 – 0.420 = 13.468
  6. 1/24.458% = 4.088, which rounds-up to 4.09
    1/13.468% = 7.425, which rounds-up to 7.43

The new inflection point range adjusted for standard deviation is therefore 4.09 to 7.43.

Conclusion

The 2018 Summer League seasons will be the only time you will have to carry out these calculations manually.

In future, the standard deviation calculations will be incorporated into the HDAFU tables themselves and will calculate automatically.

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2017-18 Summer and Winter League Calendar http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/summer-winter-league-calendar/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/summer-winter-league-calendar/#comments Thu, 11 Jan 2018 14:09:16 +0000 http://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=5909 more »]]> Whilst some leagues have still not confirmed their schedules for 2017-18*, here is our guide to the start/finish dates and mid-season breaks of all leagues represented in our HDAFU Table portfolio.

*Updates will be performed when information becomes available.

We begin with the more popular Winter Leagues; the Summer Leagues are detailed on Page 2.

2017-18 Winter Leagues

01. Australia A-League

As the A-League has no recognisable mid-season break, and the programme is so short (currently 135 matches per season), just the Whole Season Analysis is offered (single HDAFU table only).

Start Date: 6th October, 2017

Finish Date: 15th April, 2018

02. Austria Bundsliga

The Austrian Bundesliga has an official winter break every season (approximately six weeks) beginning in mid-December.

Start Date: 22nd July, 2017

1st Half Ends: 16th December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 3rd February, 2018

Finish Date: 20th May, 2018

03. Belgium Jupiler League

The Jupiler League has a three/four week break beginning after the last round of matches in December each year.

The second half of the season is shorter than the first and for the sake of the HDAFU tables, finishes with the last round of matches before the league splits into Championship* and Europa League Play-off* groups.

(*These latter matches are not included in our analyses and should not form part of any HDAFU portfolio strategy).

Start Date: 28th July, 2017

1st Half Ends: 24th December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 18th January, 2018

Finish Date: 9th March, 2018

04. Croatia 1. HNL

The Croatian 1. HNL has an official winter break every season (approximately seven/eight weeks) beginning in mid-December.

Start Date: 14th July, 2017

1st Half Ends: 16th December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 10th February, 2018

Finish Date: 19th May, 2018

05. Czech Republic 1. Liga

The Czech 1. Liga has an official winter break every season (approximately seven/eight weeks) beginning during the first week of December.

Start Date: 28th July, 2017

1st Half Ends: 1st December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 16th February, 2018

Finish Date: 25th May, 2018

06. Denmark Superligaen

The Superligaen has a seven/eight week break beginning after the last round of matches in December each year.

The second half of the season splits into a Championship Group, a Relegation Group* and includes Europa League play-off games*.

(*The Relegation Group and Europa League play-off games are not included in our analyses and should not form part of any HDAFU portfolio strategy).

Start Date: 14th July, 2017

1st Half Ends: 9th December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 10th February, 2018

Finish Date: Late May, 2018

07. England Premier League

The Premier League has no mid-season or winter break, but the season breaks naturally at the end of the calendar year.

Start Date: 11th August, 2017

1st Half Ends: 30th December, 2017 (Round 19)

2nd Half Starts: 1st January, 2018 (Round 20)

Finish Date: 13th May, 2018

08. France Ligue 1

Ligue 1 breaks for around three weeks just before Christmas each year.

Start Date: 4th August, 2017

1st Half Ends: 20th December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 13th January, 2018

Finish Date: 19th May, 2018

09. France Ligue 2

Ligue 2 breaks for around four weeks just before Christmas each year.

Start Date: 28th July, 2017

1st Half Ends: 15th December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 12th January, 2018

Finish Date: 11th May, 2018

10. Germany Bundesliga

The Bundesliga has a break of four/five weeks each year beginning in mid-December.

Start Date: 18th August, 2017

1st Half Ends: 16th December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 20th January, 2018

Finish Date: 12th May, 2018

11. Greece Super League

The Super League has a break of around three weeks usually beginning during the third week of December.

Start Date: 19th August, 2017

1st Half Ends: Third week of December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: First week of January, 2018

Finish Date: 6th May, 2018

12. Italy Serie A

Serie A usually has a break of around two weeks beginning after the last round of games immediately before/after Christmas, with the re-start during the first or second week of January each year.

Start Date: 19th August, 2017

1st Half Ends: 30th December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 6th January, 2018

Finish Date: 20th May, 2018

13. Netherlands Eredivisie

The Eredivisie has a four week break beginning after the last round of games immediately before Christmas.

Start Date: 11th August, 2017

1st Half Ends: 24th December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 19th January, 2018

Finish Date: 6th May, 2018

14. Poland Ekstraklasa

The Ekstraklasa has a seven/eight week break beginning after the last round of matches in mid-December each year.

The second half of the season splits into a Championship and Relegation Group, and all matches are included in our analyses for inclusion in any strategy.

Start Date: 14th July, 2017

1st Half Ends: 15th December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 9th February, 2018

Finish Date: end of May/beginning of June, 2018

15. Portugal Primeira Liga

The Primeira Liga has a two week break beginning after the last round of matches immediately before Christmas each year.

Start Date: 6th August, 2017

1st Half Ends: 19th December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 5th January, 2018

Finish Date: 12th May, 2018

16. Russia Premier League

The Russian Premier League needs an extended break to cope with the winter weather. The break usually begins in mid-December, with the re-start not until early March each year.

Start Date: 15th July, 2017

1st Half Ends: 10th December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 4th March, 2018

Finish Date: 13th May, 2018

17. Scotland Premiership

The Premiership breaks for around three weeks each season after the last round of matches in the calendar year.

Start Date: 5th August, 2017

1st Half Ends: 30th December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 24th January, 2018

Finish Date: Variable – The last five seasons have all differed – anywhere between the second and fourth week in May.

18. Spain La Liga Primera

La Liga Primera has a break of up to two weeks after the games immediately before Christmas.

Start Date: 11th August, 2017

1st Half Ends: 19th December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 6th January, 2018

Finish Date: 13th May, 2018

19. Switzerland Super League

The Super League breaks for six/seven weeks in mid-December each year.

Start Date: 22nd July, 2017

1st Half Ends: 15th December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 2nd February, 2018

Finish Date: 18th May, 2018

20. Turkey Süper Lig

The Süper Lig breaks for around two weeks at the end of each calendar year.

Start Date: 11th August, 2017

1st Half Ends: 23rd December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 20th January, 2018

Finish Date: 19th May, 2018

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2018 Summer League HDAFU Tables http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/2017-summer-league-1x2-tables/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/2017-summer-league-1x2-tables/#comments Mon, 25 Dec 2017 13:30:43 +0000 http://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=5823 more »]]> Please note that this is an archived post. We decided not to remove it from the site because of the many questions and answers in the comments section. For those of you with curious minds it may also be quite interesting to see how our HDAFU Tables have developed over the years.

Here’s the link to the new sales page: HDAFU Inflection Points Tables


The 6th Generation of HDAFU Tables

We had a breakthrough in our thinking last year so we experimented with the idea.

Knowing from experience that the first and second halves of a football match are usually played in very different circumstances, we extended the idea to leagues as a whole.

Analysing a season’s results (or a set of them together) naturally gives only a blend of what has happened during the whole season. Splitting the analysis into halves makes far more sense. After all, so many leagues have winter breaks, or mid season intervals, and many of those leagues without a recognised break have a natural break in their programmes. The break is so long in certain leagues (e.g. Russia) that their season might just as well be two separate seasons.

We therefore decided to split the HDAFU tables (Home-Draw-Away-Favourites-Underdogs) into three separate tables per league. One showing the five season whole season picture, the next showing the first half season results (before the break), and the last showing the second half season results (after the break).

The results were staggering and showed quite clearly the distinctive trends of each half season as opposed to the whole season blend. We decided to put our theory to the test and embarked on what turned out to be a hugely successful betting campaign.

2018 Summer League Standard Deviation Adjustment Figures

For more accuracy with this year’s tables, we have introduced standard deviation adjustments together with an instruction manual. These adjustments will be automatic in the next round of tables.

Buy Your Tables Here!

PRICE(*): £35.00 GBP Per League

The following discounts apply for multiple purchases (you can also mix Winter & Summer League tables in the same cart):
Buy 5, 6, 7, 8 or 9 leagues = 20% Discount (coupon code: SW20)
Buy 10 leagues = 30% Discount (10 for the price of seven) (coupon code: SW30)
Buy 11 or more leagues = 35% Discount (coupon code: SW35)

Please contact us (sales[at]soccerwidow[dot]com) should you have any questions regarding checkout and payment. For further clarification about the HDAFU tables please use the comment function below.

Should any of the above codes not work for any reason (It’s Javascript and some browsers may prevent the lightbox opening) please use the basic version of the cart to purchase your HDAFU Simulation Tables

The tables for sale are in Excel .XLSX format. Should you require a different format,
please feel free to get in touch with us by email.

(*)Prices are net prices ex VAT (Value Added Tax).

EU VAT rates will be added on the checkout page according to your location if in Europe.
Customers from the United Kingdom currently are not charged any VAT

Read more: EU VAT Information


Help with the Checkout

Open the scroll down list and click a league to highlight it.

Click on the Add to Cart button to include the item in your shopping basket.

Click Continue Shopping to add more items to your cart.

When you are ready to checkout, add your discount code (coupon code) if applicable (see multiple purchase discounts below), and click on Update Cart to register your discount.

Enter your personal details before clicking Continue Checkout at the bottom of the window.

You will then be given a choice of paying with PayPal or your credit card (via Stripe).

Contact us if you wish to pay via Skrill, Neteller or bank transfer.

Upon payment, download links for the files you have purchased will be automatically sent to your email address.


What You Now Get for Your Money

Instead of the usual one HDAFU table per league, you now get three.

However, the price per league is still sensible at £35.00 each. (Effectively £11.67 per table).

The new style tables presented here are also optimised for filtering.

Our recommendation is for a set of systems in several leagues, enough to provide you with a portfolio of at least 500 bets in a season. You’ll then have a chance of emulating our 2016 campaign.

HDA Betting: Profit/Loss Simulation Tables
PRODUCT SUMMARY

  • Format: Excel .XLSX (compatible with Excel 2007 and higher, LibreOffice, Google Sheets, OpenOffice, etc.)
  • File Size: between 1.70 MB and 3.17 MB each
  • Publisher: Soccerwidow Ltd; 6th revised edition
  • Simulations within each Workbook: Home Win, Draw, Away Win, Favourite & Underdog, plus a breakdown of individual teams’ performance in each bet type from both a home and away perspective.
  • Language: ENGLISH

By purchasing this product you agree to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy.

After payment you will be redirected to download your purchased product(s). You will also receive an e-mail with a confirmation of your purchase and download link from DPD (our partner for storing and delivering of digital products) as well as from PayPal (our partner for secure payment processing).

PayPal is an online payment service that is world-wide used for processing secure payments on the Internet. Paypal supports all major payment methods such as direct debit, credit cards and deposits. Should you wish another payment option then we also offer Neteller, Skrill (Moneybookers) or bank transfer. Check here.

Customer Comment

I have recently purchased some HDA tables which I have to say are simply excellent.
They have certainly opened my eyes to areas I had never considered before.

Studying them fully will take me a while but I used some insights gained from them on a few
games at the weekend and again, I have to say that I am very impressed with the product.

Hector

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HDAFU Tables: £20k in 214 days with the Winter Leagues http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/20k-in-214-days-winter-league-hdafu-tables/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/20k-in-214-days-winter-league-hdafu-tables/#comments Wed, 02 Aug 2017 00:38:12 +0000 http://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=5904 more »]]> Following up the successful 2016 Summer League Campaign, here is our complete report on the 2016-17 Winter League Campaign, based on 18 different top flight leagues.

300x300 Illustration: 2016-17 Winter League Profit Curve2016-17 Winter League Profit Curve



We will try to avoid repeating what was said in the summer league article so that it is all new information for you here.

For the sake of completeness, you should still read and digest both reports for a full idea of our strategies and thought processes.

And you will find the current stock of available HDAFU tables via this link.



2016-17 Campaign Report

Measures of Risk

Before beginning to plan any portfolio or placing bets, you will need to review your analyses and rank the systems you have found according to risk exposure based on the values of the upper inflection point odds.

This will allow you to compile a portfolio with a healthy balance of risk, which is essential to the success of any investment plan.

Here is our rough guide:

  • Low Risk (Probability 45.00% or more; upper inflection point maximum odds of 2.22)
  • Low-medium Risk (Probability 44.99%-35.00%; upper inflection point maximum odds of 2.85)
  • Medium Risk (Probability 34.99%-22.50%; upper inflection point maximum odds of 4.44)
  • Medium-high Risk (Probability 22.99%-16.00%; upper inflection point maximum odds of 6.25)
  • High Risk (Probability 15.99% or less; upper inflection point odds above 6.25)

Discretion is used if a system does not fit these parameters or crosses two or more classifications – In these cases, the harmonic mean odds of all the games in the set is used as the benchmark to guage risk. The Excel formula for a range of odds in cells A1 to A100 would be: =HARMEAN(A1:A100)

Measures of Success

You will also need a definitive framework to be able to judge the final results.

For us, the final results of any league fall into four distinct categories:

  • Systems that achieve a six-season-high (i.e. profits larger than any of the previous five seasons). (Over-Achievers).
  • Those that make a profit over and above the size of the initial stake (£100 in our case), but fall short of six-season-high results. (Achievers).
  • Strategies that break-even or, record a tiny profit or loss up to the size of the initial stake (£100 in our case). (Zero-Sum).
  • Leagues that make a loss over and above the size of the initial stake. (Losers).

You can already see that two of these outcomes are favourable, one is neutral, and only one is detrimental.

2016-17 League-by-League Review

Let’s have a brief look at each league to see how our 22 systems fared. (Alphabetically according to the tab codes in the workbook):

1. AUS1 – Austria Bundesliga – Whole Season System

Risk: Medium-high

Only eight of 28 bets won, but this was enough to see a profit of £882.00. Hit rate and yield were both below the calculated averages and the resultant profit figure was lower than any of the five previous seasons’ figures.

Result: Achiever

2. BEL1 – Belgium Jupiler League – Whole Season System
Up to, but not including Europa League and Championship Group splits

Risk: Medium

Both the estimated hit rate (33 out of 97 bets won) and yield figures were surpassed by wide margins, leading to a six-season-high profit figure of £3,108.00.

Result: Over-Achiever

3. CZE1A – Czech Republic 1. Liga – First Half Season System
Up to the 04/12/2016 winter break

Risk: Medium

Nine out of 22 bets won, and whilst the hit rate and yield both outstripped expectations, the profit figure settled at £1,247.00, the fourth largest in the last six seasons.

Result: Achiever

4. CZE1B – Czech Republic 1. Liga – Second Half Season System
From 18/02/2017 start of the second half of the season

Risk: Low

This one suffered its worst result in the last six seasons, but the resultant loss was minimal at -£310.00.

Result: Loser

5. DEN1A – Denmark Superligaen – First Half Season System

Risk: Medium

This was the only system employed in this league purely because the format of the second half of the 2016-17 season was to change from previous seasons.

Although hit rate and yield were both below estimates, the system still recorded its third highest total for six seasons at £1,238.00.

There were twice as many bets than expected (largely due to the fact that around 40% more games than usual were played in the first half of the season to accommodate the new second half season format).

Result: Achiever

6. ENG1 – England Premier League – Whole Season System

Risk: High

This system suffered the longest losing streak we have ever encountered, almost 14% worse than expected, for a very painful 36 straight losses. (A six-season-low).

However, the situation was mostly recovered by three big winners all carrying odds of over 12.00, for a final loss of just -£32.00.

The last six bets of the season lost, but had only one of these been a winner, this system would have returned a profit. Small margins.

Result: Zero-Sum

7. FRA1 – France Ligue 1 – Whole Season System

Risk: Low-medium

Hit rate and yield were both below par, but the league turned in a steady performance for a profit of £1,634.00, ranked fifth largest in the last six seasons.

Result: Achiever

8. FRA2 – France Ligue 2 – Whole Season System

Risk: Low-medium

The same story as France Ligue 1, but with a profit of £2,801.00, for its third largest profit figure in six seasons.

This one was unusual for a much higher number of bets than expected. (215 vs. 119 estimate – Profit was at £2,523.00 after 119 bets).

Result: Achiever

9. GER1A – Germany Bundesliga 1 – First Half Season System
Up to 21/12/2016 winter break

Risk: Medium-high

Another below par system, but one that still achieved a profit of £1,098.00. (Fourth largest in six seasons).

Result: Achiever

10. GER1B – Germany Bundesliga 1 – Second Half Season System
From 20/01/2017 start of the second half of the season

Risk: Medium

The very rare inclusion of a system with two non-profitable seasons (the oldest two) in the previous five.

It featured one more bet than expected, which won, to total one more winner than expected. Hit rate and yield both exceeded estimates for a profit of £1,294.00. (Fourth largest in six seasons).

Result: Achiever

11. GRE1 – Greece Super League – Whole Season System

Risk: Low-medium

The hit rate here was almost 8% below estimate and resulted in the worst performance for six seasons, and a loss of -£819.00.

Result: Loser


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2017-18 Winter League HDAFU Tables http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/hda-1x2-betting-profit-loss-simulation-tables/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/hda-1x2-betting-profit-loss-simulation-tables/#comments Mon, 31 Jul 2017 01:10:32 +0000 http://soccerwidow.com/?p=4891 more »]]> Please note that this is an archived post. We decided not to remove it from the site because of the many questions and answers in the comments section. For those of you with curious minds it may also be quite interesting to see how our HDAFU Tables have developed over the years.

Here’s the link to the new sales page: HDAFU Inflection Points Tables


As you may already know from our 2017 Summer League tables, you now receive three separate tables for each league purchased. (Except Australia, see below).

Why? Well, we had an idea in early 2016 and experimented with it. Read about that brainwave here.

Why should I buy them?

Because they are the most effective and successful method we know of building a lucrative portfolio of bets targeting the sweet spots in the odds range. Read about our successful Summer League campaign here and our successful Winter League campaign here.

How do I use them?

Full instructions plus a free HDAFU table download is available here.

You can mix Winter and Summer League tables in your order, and don’t forget to apply the discount codes for multiple purchases. (See green box immediately below).

Buy Your Tables Here!

PRICE(*): £35.00 GBP Per League

The following discounts apply for multiple purchases:
Buy 5, 6, 7, 8 or 9 leagues = 20% Discount (coupon code: SW20)
Buy 10 leagues = 30% Discount (10 for the price of seven) (coupon code: SW30)
Buy 11 or more leagues = 35% Discount (coupon code: SW35)

Please contact us (sales[at]soccerwidow[dot]com) should you have any questions regarding checkout and payment. For further clarification about the HDAFU tables please use the comment function below.

Should any of the above codes not work for any reason (It’s Javascript and some browsers may prevent the lightbox opening) please use the basic version of the cart to purchase your HDAFU Simulation Tables

The tables for sale are in Excel .XLSX format. Should you require a different format,
please feel free to get in touch with us by email.

(*)Prices are net prices ex VAT (Value Added Tax).

EU VAT rates will be added on the checkout page according to your location if in Europe.
Customers from the United Kingdom currently are not charged any VAT

Read more: EU VAT Information


Help with the Checkout

Open the scroll down list and click a league to highlight it.

Click on the Add to Cart button to include the item in your shopping basket.

Click Continue Shopping to add more items to your cart.

When you are ready to checkout, add your discount code (coupon code) if applicable (see multiple purchase discounts below), and click on Update Cart to register your discount.

Enter your personal details before clicking Continue Checkout at the bottom of the window.

You will then be given a choice of paying with PayPal or your credit card (via Stripe).

Contact us if you wish to pay via Skrill, Neteller or bank transfer.

Upon payment, download links for the files you have purchased will be automatically sent to your email address.


What You Get for Your Money

Instead of the usual one HDAFU table per league, you now get three. (Except Australia A-League, which is a whole season analysis only due to its size and lack of any recognisable mid-season break. The price of this table is now reduced to £10.00 GBP).

The new style tables presented here are also optimised for easy filtering.

Our recommendation is for a set of systems in several leagues, enough to provide you with a portfolio of at least 500 bets in a season. You’ll then have a chance of emulating our 2016 campaign.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is there a time restriction on the usefulness of the HDAFU tables?

The tables simulate the profits and losses by betting type for the last five complete seasons if choosing the same bet type for every game of the season. Therefore, the ‘natural’ cut-off point is the end of the following season when the tables have to be re-calibrated.

Simulating the profit/losses when betting on the same outcome over the last five seasons, the tables show a picture of the likely (expected) distribution for the forthcoming season.

If the bettor chooses a distribution which is equally spread over the year (e.g. underdogs in the German Bundesliga with odds between 4.0 and 17.0), then it doesn’t really matter when the systematic betting starts.

The HDAFU tables are a great help at any time throughout the season to provide focus upon profitable areas within your chosen league and allow you to refine your final bet selections.

Further reading:
Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage: Explained
Avoid Placing Bets at the Start of Season

What is the relationship between the HDAFU tables and the Value Bet Detector?

The HDAFU tables simulate profit/losses when betting systematically on one specific bet type, e.g. backing the home win, the draw, the away win, the favourite or the underdog. The Value Bet Detector is an odds and probability calculation tool for individual/particular matches of interest.

Both tools originate from the time Soccerwidow wrote match previews for Betfair and needed to identify games containing value bets for analysis. Here is a summary of those predictions.

The HDAFU tables were initially developed as a tool to recognise clusters of matches that were far more likely to contain value bets, and thus provide filtered sets of matches to preview.

We often receive questions such as, “Can the HDAFU tables and the Value Calculator support each other?” or, “What is the relevance of the HDAFU tables?” or, “Which methodology is better?”

Ultimately, both products are tools for odds calculation and understanding the betting market. The Value Bet detector is an analysis tool for individual matches; the HDAFU simulation tables is better for systematic betting in larger numbers.

Further reading:
How do Bookmakers Tick? How & Why do they Set Their Odds as they do?
How Bookmakers’ Odds Match Public Opinion

How do I structure a portfolio and what is the best size for it?

“A portfolio is a package of bets where extensive analysis has determined the choices (picks)… This is an essential part of the whole betting strategy in order to reduce the risks of losing by diversifying.”

Now focus on the main expressions: extensive analysis… determined choices… whole betting strategy… reduce risks… and lastly… diversifying.

Actually, there is nothing more to say. Just spend some quality thinking time on it.

It totally depends on personal preferences, on the availability of betting markets to you, on your risk awareness, your understanding of probabilities and statistics, and finally, using all of this combined knowledge to make your best personal judgement, never losing sight of the fact that the bottom line is making profits.

Further reading:
Calculating Odds for League Newcomers is Unpredictable
1×2 Football Betting – How to Compile a Winning Portfolio

Are the HDAFU tables for both, back betting and lay betting?

Yes. Although the HDAFU tables directly simulate what happened from a backing perspective over the last five seasons, they are obviously reversible and provide a sound benchmark for formulating lay betting strategies.

Large positive figures and rising curves within the tables indicate promising back betting opportunities, whilst large negative falling curves point to potential lay strategies.

The HDAFU tables come with an odds toggle as well as an exchange commission toggle so that the user can adjust the base figures where necessary – This is of great importance to those wishing to accurately analyse lay strategies.

Don’t forget that betting exchange odds are often ‘higher’ than the highest bookmaker odds and, of course, have a built-in commission surcharge levied by the exchange platform. The effects of these variables can be gauged using the toggle functions within each HDAFU table.

Further reading:
1×2 Betting System: Analysis of HDA Data and Strategy Development – LAY THE DRAW
1X2 Betting System – Staking the Underdog

Why is concentrating on bet types more profitable than betting on teams?

The answer to this question is simple psychology, which often defeats the average punter.

There are millions of people who follow one or another team. They read all the news available, discuss form, players and managers, and everything else there is to think about when a match involving “their” team is coming up.

There are plenty of “must win” situations, and even if the odds seem a little short, bets are still placed on the team they support to win the game. Both reliance on luck and a lot of hope goes into each game.

Unfortunately, gut feelings are very often a false friend and team news also has no relevance to the ‘true odds’ of a game; little wonder that there are more losing punters than winners.

The HDAFU tables help the gambler to disconnect all emotions from betting. The figures show very plainly where to concentrate when compiling a betting system portfolio for profit.

Further reading:
Finding Betting Odds Inflection Points
Half-time Results are more Predictable than Full-time

What do you recommend to read for better understanding of the HDAFU tables?

HDAFU Tables Knowledge Base

1X2 Betting System – Staking the Underdog
How to Compile a Winning Portfolio
Finding Betting Odds Inflection Points
Odds Toggle Function


HDA Betting: Profit/Loss Simulation Tables
PRODUCT SUMMARY

  • Format: Excel .XLSX (compatible with Excel 2007 and higher, LibreOffice, Google Sheets, OpenOffice, etc.)
  • File Size: between 623 KB and 2.85 MB each
  • Publisher: Hertis Services Ltd (former Soccerwidow Ltd); 5th revised edition
  • Simulations within each Workbook: Home Win, Draw, Away Win, Favourite & Underdog, plus a breakdown of individual teams’ performance in each bet type from both a home and away perspective.
  • Language: ENGLISH

By purchasing this product you agree to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy.

After payment you will be redirected to download your purchased product(s). You will also receive an e-mail with a confirmation of your purchase and download link from DPD (our partner for storing and delivering of digital products) as well as from PayPal (our partner for secure payment processing).

PayPal is an online payment service that is world-wide used for processing secure payments on the Internet. Paypal supports all major payment methods such as direct debit, credit cards and deposits. Should you wish another payment option then we also offer Neteller, Skrill (Moneybookers) or bank transfer. Check here.

Customer Comment

The results of your 2016-17 campaign are fantastic. I’m going to go through your campaign in detail and learn what I can about how and why you put it together and then hopefully go some way toward achieving what you guys did in that season.

One other thing I wanted to say about what you offer at Soccerwidow….the material – free and paid for – is so valuable and really does teach people what they need to know in order to understand the betting market and what is profitable and what is not, the pitfalls and the best way forward.

I’m very much like you in that I don’t see the value in blindly following someone else picks, but when someone doesn’t know the betting market or how to go about it themselves, blind following is what a lot of people gravitate towards.

With your products they really do teach people and empower them to be able to make their own decisions and do things the right way. I feel I have learned a tremendous amount since I found your website and am very much looking forward to putting it into practice in this upcoming football season.

Great job on what you guys do at Soccerwidow!

Simon

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HDAFU Tables: £10k in 178 days with the Summer Leagues http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/10k-in-178-days-summer-league-hdafu-tables/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/10k-in-178-days-summer-league-hdafu-tables/#comments Thu, 06 Jul 2017 21:27:49 +0000 http://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=5821 more »]]> They say that the proof of the pudding is always in the eating.

Here is how a straightforward backing system made up of a portfolio of nine leagues from our Summer League HDAFU tables made over £10,000 in 178 match days from £100 level stakes during 2016.

2016 Campaign Odds Range

FREE Download!
2016 Summer League Campaign Workbook:

Full details of the 2016 Summer League portfolio are included in a dedicated Excel workbook, which you can download here for free. This workbook details every bet placed in all nine leagues, together with a chronological summary, the winning and losing streaks, and the parameters of each system employed.

It’s a must-have simply as a monitoring sheet template, and you will need it to understand much of what we talk about below.

Click on the following link to receive your free download via email:

>>> 2016 summer league campaign <<<


Just click on the button above and then on “Continue Checkout” in the pop-up box. Enter your name and e-mail address and our store will then deliver the file to you via e-mail, free of charge. The size of the Excel file is 278KB. (Warning: Please do not apply these systems to future seasons – the parameters will certainly have changed, with each league requiring a complete re-analysis).


Note: When downloading this spreadsheet you will also receive a coupon code offering a discount of £5.00 GBP, redeemable against the purchase of any individual HDAFU Table. This allows you the opportunity to experiment and explore your first HDAFU Table without paying the full price for it and before you commit to buying more. Test drive and formulate strategies for any current season ‘on the cheap’!

Overview of the Monitoring Workbook

Summary Tab

Here you will see the 15 separate systems derived from the HDAFU tables that were pooled together as a single campaign; a well-balanced mixture of backing home wins and favourites (six systems: low risk/low return) and away wins and underdogs (nine systems: higher risk/higher return).

At the time of analysis, although there were viable systems for the draw apparent, other systems took preference. (However, several draw systems were employed in the subsequent Winter League portfolio).

You will also see that in certain leagues, we different systems were run in the first and second halves of their seasons. In other leagues, the system chosen was a better fit for the whole of the season (U.S.A., Finland and Japan).

Analysing the HDAFU tables is now a much faster exercise than ever before despite the fact that each league now comes with three separate workbooks: one to demonstrate the five full seasons approach; one limited to games in the first half of each season; one limited to games in the second half of each season.

As frequently happens, there is more than one opportunity to analyse in each of the three workbooks, but only the most promising system per league is considered for inclusion, or two if the league is split into half seasons. Read more about this approach here.

Running more than one system per league in the same market (in this case, the 1×2 market) causes confusion with conflicting betting decisions. It also means relying on something that is not the most promising in that league to help support the portfolio as a whole. With portfolio betting it is essential to field the strongest team from the start without involving any also-rans.

To mix the best performing systems with lesser ones would be like mixing apples with pears. The sweet tasting apple pie we hoped to bake would be contaminated. Always better to compare and match apples with apples.

On the whole, the time taken to analyse and then decide upon which system to support was no more than a couple of hours per league, sometimes a little more, sometimes less.

For the nine leagues represented, less than 20 hours was spent coming up with the 15 systems.

(1) Expectations Prior to 2016 Season

In columns F-P, you will see a complete breakdown of the figures the 15 systems forecasted for the 2016 season in each league.

You will also see a box entitled Possible Yield Range (Row 30). The Average Yield and Lowest Yield expected are highlighted: between 23.86% and 1.58%. This is the more realistic threshold the final result was expected to occupy.

The Highest Yield expected of 46.05% is an arbitrary figure. It is virtually impossible to achieve for the following reasons:

  • It represents a cherry-picking exercise because the 46.05% figure is a synthesis of each league’s single highest profit season from the five analysed. Which season is the ‘best’ is also unlikely to be the same one in different leagues. For example, it might be the 2015 season in Japan and 2016 in Sweden.

    Although there is a tiny possibility that all nine of our leagues simultaneously experience their best season in the last six in the bet types we are targeting, the statistical chance is negligible.

  • The HDAFU tables are based on highest market odds at the close of the ante post market and it is extremely unlikely that you will obtain the highest odds available with every bet you place. The more realistic expectation is therefore always going to be less than the Highest Yield forecast.
  • Some of the 15 systems were bound to fail although guessing which ones would was impossible to answer. This was known before the campaign began. There are several reasons for this:
  1. Systems were chosen which showed a historical profit in at least four of the five seasons analysed. Even with a system based on five seasons’ profit, there would still be chance of it failing in the sixth season.
  2. The league may experience a lower than average hit-rate in the new season. In fact, the coming season may be an anomalous one altogether. For example, it records the worst hit-rate for home wins in the last 10 seasons. Without the need for a complicated mathematical calculation it can be said right away that there is a basic one in 10 chance of this occurring, and 10% is 10%, not zero.

    The more leagues and systems used, the more times this chance is faced and 10-year record highs and lows have to be set sometime. Of course, if we narrow things down and say that the league records its worst set of home wins in the next season (the sixth: the one after our five seasons’ analysis), the chance of the new season being the worst of the last six is a basic one in six (16.67%).

    Likewise, for a bet type to record its best results for 10 seasons, the chance is again 10%, and 16.67% in the last six seasons.

    Of course, the reality of the overall performance is likely to be somewhere in the middle (a standard distribution bell curve). Not all systems will fail and not all will over-achieve but by picking the sweet spots in the historical results, the chances of overall success are enhanced.

  3. Bookmaker odds across the board may be slightly lower than usual in response to repeating trends in the match results. There are definitely some seasons where the odds setting for a particular bet type is markedly different from previous seasons. It’s not often, but it does happen. This may not influence whether a profit is made, but it will affect the size of it.

  4. (2) Results of 2016 Season

    The forecasts and the results achieved were very close.

    The average forecast suggested a scenario of 849 bets with a hit-rate of 44.99%. The total eventually recorded was 825 bets (without missing a single betting opportunity) at a hit-rate of 43.52%.

    But even with these fractional shortfalls, a yield of 12.17% (cell V28) equated to a profit of £10,038, with all four bet types in profit – The higher risk/higher return away wins were the star performers with a profit of £7,097 (cell Y25).

    A yield of more than 12% is an excellent return. Anything over 5-6% is good. There are no savings plans that we are aware of that deliver such a large return in such a short space of time.

    And if you need reminding, the money in betting is not in perennially backing home wins and favourites.

    Only four of the 15 systems achieved yields in excess of their average expectations (V column cells filled in green). Three of these (plus another two) achieved hit-rates in excess of the five season average (T column cells filled in green).

    Overall, it was not an exceptional performance (it didn’t need to be), but it was a carefully planned one. It flew the mission, hit the objective and came back in one piece. The system avoided the bookmakers’ radars with a relatively small stake of £100 per bet. (Limited by the size of our initial bankroll).

    A 10k return and a bankroll which was luckily in profit from bet number 1 (and remained so until the end – see Chrono tab), was immensely satisfying, and when all was totted-up the earnings came to around £70 tax-free per hour of time invested in the project. Everything will be quicker and slicker next time…

    Aftermath – Why did Some Systems Fail?

    Going back and trying to figure out why things went wrong is an integral part of any betting system. It helps allay fears that perhaps you did something wrong – if you did, hopefully you’ll find the error. It’s not about creating excuses for failure; it’s more about peace of mind and learning lessons for the future. Life is all about continuing to learn.

    Getting the calculations correct when formulating the systems is fundamental. If theories are based on misleading information to begin with, you are sunk before you start betting.

    Here is the post-mortem:

    Brazil – Série A

    It was a strange season in Brazil.

    The crowd plays a hugely important role in football matches. We’ve all heard of ‘partisan atmospheres’, especially during local derbies.

    Following the undoubted rise in popularity in the game caused by hosting the World Cup in 2014, average attendances rose to a six year high of 17,160 per match in 2015 and then instantly fell by almost 10% to 15,809 in 2016. Increasing crowd violence and rising admission prices were held to blame.

    It is difficult to say how much of an influence the crowd effect has on a season, but it was certainly an anomaly in 2016.

    On top of this, results were also skew-whiff. The 2016 season saw 53.30% home wins. During 2011-13, this figure was around 48%; 2014 = 51.84%; 2015 = 52.63%. The differences between these figures do not seem great, but in 2016 there were 202 home wins, almost 20 more than in any of the seasons 2011-13.

    Whilst the first half season system based on home wins brought a profit, the home win anomaly detrimentally affected the underdog system in the second half of the season. The away win percentage (mostly underdogs) only hit 21.9% in the second half of the season, a six season low.

    However, the fact remains that the second half season underdog system was only one win away from turning a profit. If any one of the 21 lost bets had come in, there would have been profits across the board in Brazil.

    Instead, it was just a case of bad luck. The majority of expected home wins were in the second half of the season, when the preference was for the other way around.

    Norway – Tippeligaen

    The second half of the season was miserable. It was tempting to pull the plug on this system at one stage, especially when it became obvious that this system would fail.

    But, the point of all of these systems is to hold firm and play them through to the end. Compare what happened in Norway with the last round of games in Japan where all five bets won. This is another example of synergy – the Norway losses were recovered elsewhere in the grand scheme of things.

    Norway recorded its lowest home win rate for six seasons and by more than 2%. This equates to six wins short of the lowest total in any of the previous five seasons, which in a 240 game season, is a big deviation.

    In the first half of the season, the incidence of home wins was 50.51%, with only 26.26% away wins. In the second half, when home wins were targeted, the rate dropped to a miserly 41.13%, whilst away wins were 31.21%. Like Brazil’s two systems, Norway’s results were precisely the wrong way around again.

    Norway was certainly anomalous as it produced the lowest home win rate in 2016 of any season since 2004. That 10% chance mentioned earlier came in here.

    You’ll see from the HDAFU tables (if you buy them!) that the Norwegian mid-season break (like Sweden) is around a third of the way into each season. The fact is that the season halves are disproportionate. Most of our bets were in the larger second half programme.

    Perhaps in future it will be a better idea to use a whole season analysis (i.e. dispense with the split season approach) in all leagues where the season halves are disproportionate.

    Singapore – S-League

    This was a lesson in gut-feeling. This system was taken on board largely due to previous successes in this league.

    The 2015 S-League had turned-in a yield of 37% and profits of £4,659. It was almost in homage to this result that underdogs were chosen again in both halves of the 2016 season.

    The league format in Singapore has changed dramatically recently. 2015 saw only 9 teams take part in the league, which was repeated in 2016. There were 13 teams in 2013.

    The statistics used to formulate the systems here were therefore disparate. In splitting the league into halves for the first time, a mixture of apples and pears was unwittingly analysed.

    The tiny loss incurred across the board was therefore a matter of luck. Okay, it was only 26 bets in total during 2016, but a small negative result wasted time that could easily have been avoided. Greed probably got in the way of the decision-making process as did the feel-good factor of winning well in previous seasons.

    2017 will probably see a return to the whole season approach in this league too.

    Next Page: Other Workbook Tabs and Conclusion

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