1×2 Betting – Soccerwidow http://www.soccerwidow.com Sports Betting Knowledge Fri, 20 Jan 2017 11:35:20 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6.2 1×2 Betting: 2016-17 Profit/Loss Simulation Tables http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/hda-1x2-betting-profit-loss-simulation-tables/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/hda-1x2-betting-profit-loss-simulation-tables/#comments Wed, 27 Jul 2016 17:37:32 +0000 http://soccerwidow.com/?p=4891 more »]]>

Buy the 4th Generation of HDAFU Tables

Soccerwidow’s Home-Draw-Away-Favourite-Underdog simulation tables are a revolutionary way of looking at a large data set to immediately see profitable 1×2 areas, enabling you to filter the results for precision betting.

The traditional home, draw, away Profit/Loss simulations are supplemented by a complete overview of the favourite and underdog markets, plus separate tables for the favourite playing at home or away and the underdog playing at home or away. The tables also include visualisations of inflection points, a very powerful tool for finding consistently profitable segments.

This unique product also breaks down results into odds clusters and odds ratios. There are more than 100 different simulations per league, providing clear guidance for what to back or lay, and what to avoid.

Winter Leagues 2011-16 – FULL-TIME (FT) – Excel.XLSX:

Summer Leagues 2011-15 – FULL-TIME (FT) – Excel.XLSX:

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PRICE: £ 24.90 PER HDAFU SIMULATION TABLE

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Screenshots from the EPL HDA Simulation Table



The Power of the Home, Draw, Away, Favourite and Underdog Simulation Tables

Each table contains the following Profit/Loss simulations for backing Home wins, Draws, Away wins, Favourite and Underdog betting:

  • from an Individual Team perspective (when playing at home or, playing away)
  • by Odds Clusters (home odds, draw odds, away odds)
  • by carefully selected Odds Ratios (favourites or underdogs at home or away, similarly matched teams, etc.)
  • by Inflection Point Graphs for home, draw, away, favourite and underdog odds

Individual teams or odds clusters, which have been traditionally, intentionally, or accidentally over- or under-priced by the bookmakers will become evident and you will definitely notice patterns and opportunities for adding selections to your existing betting portfolio or when creating a new betting system.

Each workbook is interactive allowing you to insert your own Staking Levels. Tailoring further for individual needs, the tables include an Odds Toggle option for each bet type.

There are also Commission Rate Toggles allowing you to enter the level charged by your favoured betting exchange or broker.

>>> buy your hdafu tables <<<



Frequently Asked Questions

Is there a time restriction on the usefulness of the HDAFU tables?

The tables simulate the profits and losses by betting type for the last five complete seasons if choosing the same bet type for every game of the season. Therefore, the ‘natural’ cut-off point is the end of the following season when the tables have to be re-calibrated.

Simulating the profit/losses when betting on the same outcome over the last five seasons, the tables show a picture of the likely (expected) distribution for the forthcoming season.

If the bettor chooses a distribution which is equally spread over the year (e.g. away underdogs in the German Bundesliga with odds between 4.0 and 17.0), then it doesn’t really matter when the systematic betting starts.

The HDAFU tables are a great help at any time throughout the season to provide focus upon profitable areas within your chosen league and allow you to refine your final bet selections.

Further reading:
Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage: Explained
Avoid Placing Bets at the Start of Season

What is the relationship between the HDAFU tables and the Value Bet Detector?

The HDAFU tables simulate profit/losses when betting systematically on one specific outcome, e.g. backing the favourite playing away. The Value Bet Detector is an odds and probability calculation tool for particular matches of interest.

Both tools originate from the time when I (Soccerwidow) wrote match previews for Betfair and needed to identify games containing value bets so that I could analyse them and publish profitable picks.

The HDAFU tables were developed as a tool to recognise clusters of matches that were far more likely to contain value bets, and thus provide me with filtered sets of matches to preview.

I often receive questions such as, “Can the HDAFU tables and the Value Calculator support each other?” or, “What is the relevance of the HDAFU tables?” or, “Which methodology is better?”

Ultimately, both products are tools for odds calculation and understanding the betting market. The Value Bet detector is an analysis tool for individual matches, the HDAFU simulation tables can also be used for systematic betting in larger numbers.

Further reading:
How do Bookmakers Tick? How & Why do they Set Their Odds as they do?
How Bookmakers’ Odds Match Public Opinion

How to structure a portfolio and what is the best size for it?

“A portfolio is a package of bets where extensive analysis has determined the choices (picks)… This is an essential part of the whole betting strategy in order to reduce the risks of losing by diversifying.”

Now focus on the main expressions: extensive analysis… determined choices… whole betting strategy… reduce risks… and lastly… diversifying.

Actually, there is nothing more to say. Just spend some quality thinking time on it.

It totally depends on personal preferences, on the availability of betting markets to you, on your risk awareness, your understanding of probabilities and statistics, and finally using all of this combined knowledge to make your best personal judgement, never losing sight of the fact that the bottom line is making profits.

Further reading:
Calculating Odds for League Newcomers is Unpredictable
1×2 Football Betting – How to Compile a Winning Portfolio

Are the HDAFU tables for both, back betting and lay betting?

Yes. Although the HDAFU tables directly simulate what happened from a backing perspective over the last five seasons, they are obviously reversible and provide a sound benchmark for formulating lay betting strategies.

Large positive figures and rising curves within the tables indicate promising back betting opportunities, whilst large negative falling curves point to potential lay strategies.

The HDAFU tables come with an odds toggle as well as an exchange commission toggle so that the user can adjust the base figures where necessary – This is of great importance to those wishing to accurately analyse lay strategies.

Don’t forget that betting exchange odds are often ‘higher’ than the highest bookmaker odds and, of course, have a built-in commission surcharge levied by the exchange platform. The effects of these variables can be gauged using the toggle functions within each HDAFU table.

Further reading:
1×2 Betting System: Analysis of HDA Data and Strategy Development – LAY THE DRAW
1X2 Betting System – Staking the Underdog

Why is concentrating on bet types more profitable than betting on teams?

The answer to this question is simple psychology, which often defeats the average punter.

There are millions of people who follow one or another team. They read all the news available, discuss form, players and managers, and everything else there is to think about when a match involving “their” team is coming up.

There are plenty of “must win” situations, and even if the odds seem a little short, bets are still placed on the team they support to win the game. Both reliance on luck and a lot of hope goes into each game.

Unfortunately, gut feelings are a very wrong adviser and team news also has no relevance to the ‘true odds’ of a game; little wonder that there are more losing punters than winners.

The HDAFU tables help the gambler to disconnect all emotions from betting. The figures show very plainly where to concentrate when compiling a betting system portfolio for profit.

Perhaps you will prefer certain bet types, or betting within certain odds clusters, or even concentrating on away teams when the match is equally matched – the HDAFU tables reveal all this and more.

Perhaps you wish to concentrate on draws when the home, draw, or away odds (or a combination of them all) meet certain conditions? Again, the tables are sophisticated and refined enough to provide you with such detailed information.

Further reading:
Finding Betting Odds Inflection Points
Half-time Results are more Predictable than Full-time

What do you recommend to read for better understanding of the HDAFU tables?

HDAFU Tables Knowledge Base

1X2 Betting System – Staking the Underdog
How to Compile a Winning Portfolio
Finding Betting Odds Inflection Points
Odds Toggle Function



HDA Betting: Profit/Loss Simulation Tables
PRODUCT SUMMARY

  • Format: Excel .XLSX (compatible with Excel 2007 and higher, LibreOffice, Google Sheets, OpenOffice, etc.)
  • File Size: between 1MB and 3MB each
  • Publisher: Soccerwidow Ltd; 4th revised edition
  • Simulations within each Workbook: over 100
  • Language: ENGLISH

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Customer Comment

I have recently purchased some HDA tables which I have to say are simply excellent.
They have certainly opened my eyes to areas I had never considered before.

Studying them fully will take me a while but I used some insights gained from them on a few
games at the weekend and again, I have to say that I am very impressed with the product.

Hector

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Odds to Use for Ante Post Football Betting Systems http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/football-odds-ante-post-betting-systems/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/football-odds-ante-post-betting-systems/#respond Wed, 02 Sep 2015 11:59:15 +0000 http://soccerwidow.com/?p=5231 more »]]> Bookmakers’ Motives in the Ante Post Market:

Towards the end of the ante post market many smaller bookmakers will already have reached their financial liability threshold for a particular match outcome and drop out of the race to be best price.

Others will not have time to re-balance their books if they were to take ‘new money’ on a particular outcome.

The larger, more sophisticated bookmakers will attempt to achieve arbitrage during the in-play market if their book is unbalanced at kick-off, and every firm will consider striking bets with other bookmakers or betting exchanges to ensure a profit whatever the match result.

Ante Post: Definition

‘Ante post’ is a term borrowed from horseracing and means ‘before the event’.

In the online football betting arena, the ante post market for any match exists between the time of the very first postings of odds up until the moment of kick-off, when the ante post odds are suspended and replaced by live, in-play odds.


Unreliability of Average Odds

Because of the time factor and the necessity for financial parity, the average odds across the board for each outcome fall as the market gets closer and closer to kick-off.

Sometimes, the beginning of this fall is noticeable even further back than 24-hours prior to kick-off.

This is especially the case in less popular events where the stream of bets placed is much smaller and more intermittent. With less money arriving at unpredictable intervals it is a harder task to balance the book. This is the main reason why prices are mostly under-valued across the board outside the more popular top-flight leagues.

Therefore, with average odds, the picture at the close of the ante post is usually false. It bears little or no resemblance to what has been happening throughout the entire ante post period.

Stability of Highest Odds

In contrast, the ‘highest’ market odds generally experience much smaller fluctuations throughout the ante post period; there is always a bookmaker willing to offer best price until they can no longer afford to do so or, are replaced at the top by a competitor looking to increase its own market share on a particular outcome.

And of course, there is always at least one bookmaker offering best price on an outcome at any given time. (You will never see every bookmaker offering the same price at the same time).

In the huge majority of games, even higher prices are available at various points during ante post than the highest bookmaker odds that settle as the market closes.

It sounds like a paradox but using highest bookmaker odds to work out a strategy provides a more reliable and accurate benchmark of ‘average’ than using the actual average odds, and also imparts a more realistic picture of what is achievable when seeking to place bets which satisfy your selection criteria.

If you source your historical data from www.oddsportal.com (free), www.football-data.co.uk (free), or www.football-bet-data.com (at a small cost), then always use the highest bookmaker odds in any of your analyses.

NB. With third party data it is essential to know when it has been captured. Football-Bet-Data and OddsPortal are the only ones to our knowledge providing historical odds from a range of bookmakers taken consistently at the point the ante post market closes.

FREE Download!
Average Vs. Highest Odds: Excel .xlsx Comparison Spreadsheet

View an annotated 14-day ante post analysis of one full round of matches in the English Premier League showing the differences between average and highest bookmaker odds.

The spreadsheet also concentrates on the final 48-hours of the ante post market, providing perfect examples to support the hypotheses outlined in this article:

>>> Average Vs. Highest Odds <<<


Click on the above button – in the new tab click on the ‘Continue Checkout’ button. Enter your name and email address to allow our automatic shopping cart to deliver the file by email to you, free of charge. The .xlsx file size is 112 KB. When you receive your confirmation email, just click on ‘View Purchase Online’ (in the email text) to download the file.

Compile Your Football Betting Systems Using Highest Odds!

Ultimately, even the least discerning of online punters will never look to place bets at average odds. Every punter worth his salt will always look to place bets at the best prices possible for maximum returns.

If you are playing the highest odds you can find, then your strategy analyses should also be based on highest market odds.

We go one step further with our strategies and utilise an ‘Odds Toggle Mechanism’ so that we can compare actual results with the data set used to compile the strategy. Read why here.

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1X2 Betting System – Staking the Underdog http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/case-studies/1x2-betting-system-underdog/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/case-studies/1x2-betting-system-underdog/#comments Wed, 12 Aug 2015 03:11:03 +0000 http://soccerwidow.com/?p=5208 more »]]> Every year we publish HDAFU simulation tables (Home, Draw, Away, Favourites, Underdogs), which model profit & losses for five seasons in each featured league for developing profitable betting systems.

Today’s article discusses the question what would have happened when backing the underdog playing away from home in the German Bundesliga?

Such a match was played in this league on 23/05/2015 between Moenchengladbach and Augsburg. The best bookmaker odds for the full-time 1×2 market at kick-off were: 1.57 Home; 5.00 Draw; 7.30 Away.

Moenchengladbach were the clear favourites at 1.57; Augsburg the rank outsiders. However, the men of Augsburg won the game, 1-3, defying their long odds.

How regular do such things occur? Is it profitable to bet on outsiders?

Here’s a screenshot from the ‘Backing by Odds’ tab in the simulation table for this league:

BL1 Simulation Table – Betting on Away Win 2010-11 to 2014-15German Bundesliga – ‘Backing by Odds’ tab – Five Seasons 2010-15

In the table above you can see that from a total of 306 matches during 2014-15, the away team won 79 times. (Click on the table to enlarge it in a new browser tab).

79 of 306 is 25.8%, and this percentage shows that the away team won, on average, slightly better than once every four matches.

Profit and Loss Sectors when Betting on the Away Team

Looking at the profit/loss (P/L) summaries in the ‘Totals’ column, adding together the first six rows of odds clusters produces a loss of -2,564 units, based on a flat stake of 100 units per bet.

Essentially this means if the away team was priced as a clear favourite or close to the home team’s prices, they won less frequently than the probabilities indicated by their odds. The last of these first six cluster groups closes at away odds of 2.90.

Look at the second row of the table. The odds cluster between 1.66 (implied probability 60.2%) and 2.00 (implied probability 50%) contains 83 matches and, if the odds had been ‘fair’, 55.1% (60.2% + 50% / 2) of the away teams priced in this group should have won.

As you can see, this was not the case! Of 83 games in five seasons only 43 were away wins (51.8%).

Therefore, punters who regularly backed away favourites in the Bundesliga during 2010-15 surrendered ‘value’ in their bets to the bookmakers. When this happens, only one side of the deal wins in the long-run; invariably it isn’t the bettors!

Okay, let’s take a look at the away underdogs…

BL1 Betting on Away Win - 2010-11 to 2014-15German Bundesliga – ‘Inflection Points’ tab – Five Seasons 2010-15

This screenshot shows a steep rising curve starting at odds of 4.40 and continuing until odds of 17.0.

Over five seasons, 462 matches fell into this group (Moenchengladbach vs. Augsburg being one of them). The away underdog won 88 times = 19% hit rate!

In these odds clusters the away team won, on average, once in every five matches. The average betting odds were 6.40, representing a probability of 15.6%.

The curve shows, as well as the calculations (19%/15.6% = 121.7%), that the mathematical advantage was on the side of the gambler!

The P/L curve registered 653 units profit at the start of our selected segment and finished at 13,727 units. This is a difference of 13,074 units of profit located solely within the away odds cluster group from 4.40 to 17.0.

Why does this advantage exist? How does it happen?

Backing Low Odds Favourites – Downfall of any Betting System

Most bettors prefer betting on the more popular and ‘emotionally safer’ shorter-priced favourites, but please ask yourself the following two questions:

  • How does a profit-oriented company (i.e. bookmaker) set its prices?
  • Should the prices (odds) for favourites rise or drop?

Both common sense and business acumen prevail in this situation:

Many customers = High demand = Higher ‘prices’ for the product!

The market dynamics are the following: The more bets expected to be placed on a particular outcome, the more bookmakers reduce their odds. Reducing odds mean that the bettor must risk more money (stake more) to achieve the same financial outcome. The punter therefore pays a ‘higher price’ (gets lower odds) for the same product:

Odds 2.0 → stake 50 = win 50
Odds 1.5 → stake 100 = win 50
Odds 1.25 → stake 200 = win 50

Falling odds means:

⇒ Rising stakes
⇒ Potential to lose more money
⇒ Lower percentage returns should the bet win!

Although this relationship may seem paradoxical, falling odds means rising prices!

Bookies adjust Favourite & Underdog Odds to Public Expectations

To reiterate: Falling odds for an outcome is a clear indicator that this is a favourite. Warning! Dropping odds do not indicate that the statistical probability for the favourite winning the game is improving; purely the fact that the outcome is becoming more and more favoured by bettors. This is a betting fundamental, which many gamblers are totally unaware of.

Falling odds mean bookmakers are effectively raising the price for the product! The product itself does not change in the slightest (i.e. betting on the favourite), but it becomes more expensive to buy. The bettor has to risk more money in order to win the same amount. In this case, you do not get ‘more for your money’, but considerably less!

Let’s use a different example. A confectionery company launches a new chocolate bar, which becomes an instant success. Demand increases; the company naturally takes advantage of the situation by raising the price. You can certainly make the statement that if the price of the chocolate increases it is a ‘favourite’, but the product itself never changes – it’s still a 100g chocolate bar!

The last word here is that since the books have to be ‘balanced’ (i.e. the payout of all three 1×2 bets combined needs to add up to around 100%), whilst the ‘prices’ for favourites are lowered to take advantage of the demand, on the opposite side, the odds for the underdogs rise.

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1×2 HDAFU Tables: Odds Toggle Function http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/odds-toggle-1x2-hdafu-tables/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/odds-toggle-1x2-hdafu-tables/#respond Sat, 04 Jul 2015 05:18:29 +0000 http://soccerwidow.com/?p=4866 more »]]> All of our 1×2 HDAFU simulation tables (Home-Draw-Away-Favourite-Underdog) are based on highest bookmaker odds at the close of the ante post betting market (i.e. match kick-off time, when the market switches to ‘in-play’).

All may seem well but how do you check for certain whether you are on track using the bookmaker and/or exchange odds you have access to?

Your Odds vs. Highest Odds

For precision betting our 1×2 simulations include a powerful adjustment tool enabling you to gauge whether or not your promising system on paper is performing in line with the historical data you based it upon.

We call it the Odds Toggle mechanism.

The Odds Toggle will help determine the potential of your chosen strategy or, indicate that it is doomed to fail at the level of odds you are buying (i.e. you are not achieving high enough odds on a consistent enough basis).

How to Calculate the Odds Toggle

The example below shows the 1×2 odds toggle calculations for a single round of matches.

Click on the image below to enlarge it in a new tab:

Table showing the calculation of odds toggle figures

Table showing the calculation of odds toggle figures


Three Simple Steps to Calculate Odds Toggle Figures:

Step 1
The odds bought and the highest available in the market at the time are converted into percentages. In Excel this is a short, easy formula: =sum(1/odds) or =1/odds, with the result converted into a percentage.

Note: The three bold black positive figures in the three right-hand columns of the table above show where odds bought were higher than the eventual starting price but, overall in this example, the odds bought were mainly lower than the highest price available at kick-off (the negative differences shown in bold red).

Step 2
The percentages for the odds bought are deducted from the percentages for the highest market odds available.

Step 3
The differences are added together and then averaged to arrive at the final odds toggle figures.

Odds Monitoring is Essential for Reverse Engineering

The percentage difference between the best prices you achieve in the ante post period (with the bookmakers and exchanges in your portfolio) and the highest odds available at kick-off (in the market as a whole) can be used to ‘reverse engineer’ your simulation and view what effect the same experience would have had on the historical results.

Why is this so important?

  • If you are regularly achieving better ante post prices than the highest on offer at kick-off, your odds toggle calculations will return more positive values. This will improve the outlook and long-term viability of your chosen betting system.
  • Conversely, finding out how far adrift your odds are from the market at kick-off will determine whether it is worth continuing with a strategy or, whether to abort it and save valuable time and money.
  • In both cases, you will have precise information available to formulate the most effective staking plan and take best advantage from the situation.

Note: You should use the archived odds and results section in www.oddsportal.com as the benchmark to find the highest bookmaker odds available at kick-off. Odds are updated in real time and the final pre-match odds are usually shown just a few minutes after kick-off.

Our article about Betting Systems Concepts describes how to set-up an Oddsportal account and include their entire complement of bookmakers in your display, whilst our article on Oddsportal Archived Odds helps you get accustomed to the layout of their site.

Precision Odds Monitoring

For precision monitoring you will need to recalculate the values applicable to your strategy after each betting round.

The final odds toggle figure you use should always be the accumulated averages of all the games up to that point, which you have paper tested or bet upon. Do not include any matches which formed part of your historical analysis.

If you are serious about betting then you will want to review your performance every step of the way. An odds monitoring feature like this is a necessary ingredient of any successful betting strategy.

Without it you will have no exact comparison between the system you have spent hours calculating and your real betting results (or paper tests). And believe me, with such small accumulating margins sometimes making huge differences to final results, attention to detail at this level is absolutely essential.

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Half-time Results are more Predictable than Full-time http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/betting-guidance/half-time-results-more-predictable/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/betting-guidance/half-time-results-more-predictable/#comments Mon, 12 Jan 2015 17:29:41 +0000 http://soccerwidow.com/?p=4838 more »]]> It makes sense, doesn’t it? Predicting the result of a full 90-minute match has to be harder than predicting the outcome of just the first half.

Logically speaking, any full-time (FT) football betting strategy must be riskier than betting on the half-time (HT) market as there is more time for a result to go against you.

On the contrary, you can of course say there is more time for the result to go in your direction, but the old cliché, ‘It’s a game of two halves’, is never more appropriate than when looking at the stark differences between HT and FT betting.

Major Differences between HT and FT Statistics

1. Goal Distribution

Compared to FT goals totals there are naturally fewer goals in the first halves of games in every league you can possibly analyse.

The HT goals data set produces higher concentrations of correct score frequencies within a tighter range of outcomes than the FT market. Fewer goals also mean higher and tighter under/over ‘X’ goals frequencies, and indeed, every other HT goal related market.

FT scores are far less predictable due to a wider variety of actual outcomes and the significance of the FT data set is more diluted as even the most populated correct score clusters contain fewer results than the most populated HT score clusters.

Thus, a larger pool of statistics is needed for FT analyses before the cluster groups can be considered as being significantly populated.

2. HT and FT 1×2 Results

First Half Mentality:

It is a hard fact that no game can be won in the first half. For many teams the first half is all about containment and reserving energy for the more decisive second period of play.

The first halves of so many matches see teams cancelling each other – underlying fitness is more evenly matched between the teams at the beginning of a game.

It is undeniable that players are physiologically fresher at the start of the first half than they are at the beginning of the second period.

Mentality may also be affected knowing that there is always the second half in which to make up for mistakes and/or missed opportunities in the first.

Whatever the reasons for first half deadlock it is a fact that the draw is the most common HT 1×2 result in every league and in every season.

Second Half Mentality:

The second half will always be played under different circumstances to the first.

Rarely do you see teams ‘throwing the kitchen sink’ in the first half. Typically, this is a second half ploy seen towards the end of games when, if it reaps rewards, there is little time for the other team to hit back.

The bigger, richer clubs can afford better training and medical facilities, which means fitter players. Player fitness levels tend to be more of a factor the longer the game goes on.

Tactical substitutions are normally performed in the second halves of matches when fresh legs versus tiring ones can make all the difference.

Fitness can have even more of an effect on the FT outcome if a team is playing within three days of their last match (as it is medically acknowledged that players need at least three days to recover between games).

An example of this fatigue syndrome is the ‘European hangover’ seemingly suffered by teams playing midweek European competition games. No matter how large their squads are, there are always a noticeable number of below par domestic performances from these teams the following weekend.

And of course, successful teams tend to play more games per season than not so successful ones.

The most common FT 1×2 result is the home win but not in every league in every season (i.e. more volatile).

3. Favourites and Underdogs

The majority of bettors are usually driven by a desire to back the nailed-on favourites, especially when looking at less popular or more obscure leagues.

But greater value is more often found in the underdog market, predominantly so in less popular leagues where favourites tend to be perennially under-priced (appearing to be heavier favourites than they really are). In response, underdog prices are over-priced (indicating a smaller chance of winning the game than they actually have).

Underdogs tend to perform better in the first halves of games. Usually their mentality is to ‘have a go’ from the start rather than sit back and wait to be beaten by a better team on paper. They have nothing to lose.

Unfortunately for them, underdogs don’t often see the job through to the end. The FT underdog market does perform well in some leagues but often not as well as it does at HT in those same leagues.

The draw is usually the shortest priced event at HT except when overwhelming favourites play rank outsiders; the draw then becomes the second shortest price. The 0-0 draw is the most common HT result in every league and in every season.

In the FT market, the favourite is always either the home team or the away team, never the draw, although we will see from our example on the next page that the 1-1 draw is the most common FT score in almost every league.

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1×2 Football Betting – How to Compile a Winning Portfolio http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/case-studies/1x2-hda-football-betting-portfolio/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/case-studies/1x2-hda-football-betting-portfolio/#comments Fri, 05 Dec 2014 14:00:34 +0000 http://soccerwidow.com/?p=4632 more »]]> This article moves away from betting on individual teams, and pushes strategic thinking further up the knowledge ladder.

The method described below explains how to use our HDA simulation tables for recognising profitable 1×2 betting strategies and building a portfolio from a selection of major European leagues.

Conceptual image of 1x2 football bettingImage: archideaphoto (Shutterstock)

Profitable betting on football is about compiling successful portfolios and understanding the underlying market economics.

The following analysis portrays just one successful scheme in detail – Have fun learning about market behaviour and deriving a betting system from it! 🙂

Understanding the Betting Market

It is impossible to predict with total accuracy the outcome of one particular match; however, it is possible to identify and use historical distributions of data to judge the future in general.

If you do not know what the term ‘distribution’ means, check out this article for an introduction:
Goal Distribution Comparison – EPL, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie

However, understanding distributions, odds calculation and probabilities is only the first step.

The next step is to understand the market economics. Just in case you missed them here are two articles describing how the bookmaker market works:-

How do Bookmakers Tick? How & Why do They Set Their Odds as They do?
How Bookmakers’ Odds Match Public Opinion

The main message of these two articles:

  1. Bookmakers set odds based on a mixture of statistical probabilities and public opinion. Effectively, their odds match public opinion.
  2. Bookmakers do not speculate (gamble). Their priority is balancing the books.


Comprehending Market Economics to Elect a Strategy to Investigate Further

Remember your basic economics lessons in school or college which were about supply and demand.

Adapt this to the football betting market: In which situations will bookmakers reduce their prices (odds), and which prices will increase as a result? Which bets are traditionally the most popular?

The fact is the majority of punters prefer betting on favourites up to odds of 2.5. Just look at online odds comparison sites which show the percentage distribution of bets on a certain outcome. It is frequently above 60% on the favourite (independent from the offered odds), if not higher.

On the other hand, consumer demand for bets on the underdog is often much lower than the actual chance of it winning.

Bookmakers are aware of this market behaviour and try their best to predict trends, time the market, and choose the best outlets for their odds. Customer behaviour is well analysed and used to generate various marketing strategies aimed at balancing the books and boosting sales.

Therefore, for the bettor, it is safe to assume that many favourites will be under-priced to win, and draws and/or away wins will be over-priced to “make up and balance the book”.

For example, a traditionally strong team like Bayern Munich playing away will, of course, attract a good deal of punters betting on them to win rather than any weaker opponent playing at home. However, most punters are normally ignorant of the fact that even teams such as the mighty Bayern Munich win approximately just 50% of their away games.

In these game constellations bookmakers, simply by following market economics, have to reduce their prices for the (away) favourites massively and balance this by increasing the price of the less fancied home team.

Investigating Distributions: Profit/Loss Inflection Points

From what has been explained in the previous chapter it should now be obvious that favourites are often under-priced to win, and draws and/or away are frequently over-priced. Therefore, it should be possible to find a workable strategy using this knowledge.

Now comes some maths… hang in there! 🙂

In the last five seasons, a total of 1,900 matches were played in the English Premier League (EPL), of which, 46.74% finished in a home win:

Table showing EPL Full-time 1x2 distribution - Five seasons 2009-14EPL: Full-time 1×2 distribution – Five seasons 2009-14

The home team was priced the favourite in 1,351 of these matches (home odds lower than the away odds), and a total of 763 games did indeed end in a home win, equating to 56.48%.

Table showing EPL: Favourite home wins - Five seasons 2009-14EPL: Favourite home wins – Five seasons 2009-14

The balance of 549 matches saw the home team priced as the underdog (home odds higher than the away odds). From these games, 125 finished in a home win for the underdog, equating to 22.77%.

Table showing EPL: Underdog home wins - Five seasons 2009-14EPL: Underdog home wins – Five seasons 2009-14

Now convert these favourite and underdog win percentages into odds:

Home wins (Favourite): 56.48% = 1.77 [European odds]
Home wins (Underdog): 22.77% = 4.40 [European odds]

The above two odds are “inflection points”, the points on a curve at which the curvature or concavity changes from plus to minus or, from minus to plus. Translated into layman’s language… the pivot points along the profit/loss curve where profits turn to losses or, where losses turn to profits.

However, these are purely the mathematical inflection points and do not take market forces into consideration.

Therefore, please do not start betting on every favourite at home priced below 1.77 in the EPL, or on every underdog playing at home priced above 4.40. (Although following this simple strategy would have produced quite a profit!).

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Finding Betting Odds Inflection Points – Bet and Win http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/odds-calculation-en/inflection-points-football-betting-odds/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/odds-calculation-en/inflection-points-football-betting-odds/#comments Wed, 16 Jul 2014 14:22:17 +0000 http://soccerwidow.com/?p=4654 more »]]> Inflection points are the points at which the curvature or concavity on a curve changes from plus to minus or, from minus to plus. Translated into layman’s language – the turning points on the profit/loss graph where profits turn to losses or, where losses turn to profits.

Inflection Points in Football Betting

If you have ever calculated your own odds you will certainly have noticed that bookmaker prices often do not show the ‘true’ picture.

Sexy female teacher with abacusImage: FXQuadro (Shutterstock)

In other words, their odds seldom adhere to ‘true’ mathematically calculated values (the statistically expected values).

In the majority of games, odds are either higher than mathematically expected or lower…

Why Is This So?

A bookmaker’s aim is to make a profit and they price their odds to ensure that sufficient action is taking place on both sides of a bet, with enough profit retained whatever the outcome.

In addition, bookmaker betting odds are often aligned to public opinion to guard against a disproportionately large amount of money being placed on just one side of a bet.

Thinking this through with a mathematical mind, it seems very plausible that there must be certain odds clusters which are regularly under-priced, whilst other odds clusters are habitually over-priced.

The evidence to support this ‘theory’ can be easily spotted in the HDA Simulation Tables using visualisations (see example below) in the form of Profit/Loss curves based on the data within these tables.

For example, the EPL: Between 2009-2014, if you had gambled unemotionally and systematically on all English Premier League matches to be home wins (at average bookmaker odds) and placed a constant stake of 100 units per fixture, then at the end of the fifth season, your losses would have accumulated to -3,157 units.

Even higher losses would have been incurred backing all home teams to win if you would have limited your betting to the zone of odds between 1.49 and 6.53. Within this zone your losses would have totalled -7,711 units (198 plus 7,513).

However, if your strategy had been based on home wins at odds below 1.49 and above 6.53, after five seasons your profit would have been 4,554 units (7,513 minus 3,157 plus 198).

Inflection Points for Home Wins for the EPL

EPL 2009-14 - PL home odds inflection pointsEnglish Premier League – Profit/Loss curve for 2009-10 to 2013-14 seasons

The above screenshot shows the Profit/Loss curve for the EPL if back bets (at average bookmaker odds) were placed on all 1,900 matches between 15/08/2009 and 11/05/2014 (at 100 unit stakes).

You can see from the graph that the first real turning point is at home odds of 1.49. The P/L curve reaches a peak of 198 units profit before starting to fall. The erosion of profits continues until home odds of 3.49 are reached (P/L value: -7,084 units), where the curve turns for a spell before dropping again and reaching its final inflection point at odds of 6.53.

This type of graph is of great help in visualising profits and losses and in this case, the curve shows that in this odds group (60% of the matches), bookmakers under-price home team wins. Bookmakers make a long-term profit, whilst bettors lose more than they win.

The interpretation is that ‘home win’ bets must be quite popular on EPL matches at odds between 1.5 and 3.5, and bookmakers react to this high demand by reducing prices. Of course, this also means that the odds on other sides of the bet (draw and/or away win) must then be increased.

Working Out Inflection Points using the HDA Tables

Here’s a handy little tutorial:



How to Use the Knowledge of Inflection Points

(1) check your own betting pattern

Do you recognise your own betting patterns within the most common odds clusters; those which show a falling Profit/Loss curve? (For example, backing the home team to win at odds between 1.50 and 3.50 in the EPL).

If so, perhaps reconsider your strategy and avoid the tranches of odds used by the bookmakers to make their profits. Of course, no matter how hard you try, betting in the zones where bookmakers habitually reduce prices (odds) is asking for long-term losses.

It is very rare that people succeed in any walk of life by swimming against a strong current and you can safely assume that the bookmakers know their job and have made a living from manipulating figures for centuries.

(2) don’t even try to “beat” the bookies

Swim along with them. ‘Play’ the market the same way as they do. Start looking at strategies which are not in conflict with the market, but in rhythm with it.

(3) be aware that each league has different inflection points

Customs and habits of people vary from country to country. Every nation has different cultural settings, and everybody has certainly noticed regional differences expressed in tangible goods such as food or housing.

Unfortunately, differences in betting patterns and the subsequent reaction of bookmakers when setting their odds cannot be spotted without some mathematical calculations. Customer habits, especially in the betting market, remain well hidden from the bettor.

Whichever league you prefer betting on, identify the odds clusters which are utilised by the bookmakers to make their profits – and then work around them.

(4) use the market inflection points for your own benefit

Concentrate on developing your personal betting strategy by taking the market rules into consideration.
For example, in the EPL, you may wish to look at a ‘back the home team’ strategy which embraces home odds under 1.50 or, alternatively, over 3.50, or even better, over 6.50.

(5) find a strategy and identify matches for producing long-term profits

Using the HDA simulation tables and finding the various inflection points will provide you with knowledge of odds clusters which produce a long-term profit or loss when backing.

If you already use our Value Bet Detector for calculating odds for individual matches then the knowledge of profitable odds clusters will help you to pick matches which are worthwhile re-calculating.

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1×2 Betting System: Analysis of HDA Data and Strategy Development – LAY THE DRAW http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/odds-calculation-en/1x2-betting-system-strategy-lay-the-draw/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/odds-calculation-en/1x2-betting-system-strategy-lay-the-draw/#comments Fri, 23 Aug 2013 21:50:46 +0000 http://soccerwidow.com/?p=3100 more »]]> Numerous Web sites and forums pay homage to the Lay The Draw strategy with prolific threads from supporters claiming to have found extremely lucrative 1×2 betting systems. Therefore, I have decided to explore lay the draw betting in detail using our HDA Simulation Tables and the popular betting odds Value Bet Calculator.

Firstly, I will say that it is certainly possible to find a winning Lay The Draw system. However, it requires not only an excellent feel for the 1×2 betting odds market but also, knowledge of exactly what to look for and how to filter out a promising football betting system from a jumble of data.

In this article you will learn the most common approaches bookmakers use to set their 1×2 betting odds, focusing on the draw odds. I will explore examples from the EPL and compare market prices with the ‘true’ odds. Using this knowledge together with findings from the HDA Simulation Tables, I will identify one team which looks very promising to lay the draw in each of its home league matches for the forthcoming season.

Lay the Draw – English Premier League 2008-09 to 2012-13

Here is a screenshot from our HDAFU simulation table for the English Premier League (just one of 20 tables in the fixed win – fixed risk staking plan tab):

Lay The Draw Betting Results - EPL 2008-09 to 2011-12

Lay The Draw Betting Simulation Results – EPL 2008-09 to 2012-13

In the last five seasons, if a bettor decided to lay the draw in every EPL match for a fixed risk of 10 units (fixed risk = limiting each bet to lose the same set amount; profit therefore fluctuates with each bet), a loss of 380.42 units would have been observed. The many red numbers in this table are difficult to ignore.

Only by specialising in laying the draw consistently for the two Manchester clubs (City and United) when both (or either) were playing at home, would the bettor have seen a profit after five seasons (118.04 units for City; 143.85 units for United).

A profit would have been rather unlikely if he had chosen a combination of any of the other teams. Including teams such as Fulham, West Brom, and West Ham when playing at home may have improved the chances of a profit but, their positive results after five seasons are not as promising as the two Manchester teams.

For all the other teams scheduled to be playing in the 2013-14 EPL season (all those with a yellow background to their name in the table will be playing in the new season), there are only red numbers including Arsenal, Chelsea, and Tottenham, although their negative results are not quite so bad as the others.

Why do Some Teams Bring Lay The Draw Profits and Others Not?

To understand why some home teams bring a profit when laying the draw and others not requires a deeper understanding of football betting odds calculation.

It is a hard fact, but true: There is no universal formula for successful football or sports betting in general. There is no rule that applies to every team and every market without exception which is always profitable to use. It is not possible to automate sports betting picks. You must look at each team individually and attempt to understand the bookmakers’ approach when they are setting odds.

It is crucial to remember and bear in mind that bookmakers live from offering sports bets. They need to ensure long term solvency despite advanced computer technology, the availability of more and more raw statistical data, and the increasing mathematical awareness of their customers.

The main business objective of bookmakers is ensuring profit, paying the bills and employees’ wages, and attempting to keep gamblers happy and entertained.


Understand Betting Odds Calculation

Bookmakers’ football betting odds are mainly based on historical statistics and also on public opinion. Bookmakers need to balance their books so they are not exposed to losing considerable sums on any particular outcome.

However, some teams neither obey their previous seasons’ statistical trends, nor comply to opposing teams’ statistics, or even to league averages. Some teams have a huge and unique home-field advantage; others just do not travel well. Whatever the set of factors involved in individual games the formulas which govern calculations of draw odds sometimes don’t reflect satisfactory market expectations.

Of course, you cannot fully eliminate the chances that now and again a match finishes in a draw, but this is observed far less frequently than mathematical formulas predict or as indicated by the bookmakers’ odds. Sometimes, betting odds offered in the market are repetitively too low for some teams and therefore great value can be gained if one succeeds to identify them and choose to lay the draw whenever they play at home.

The following table is a comparison of the average distribution of the draw in the English Premier League with the observed distribution of three selected teams: Arsenal, Manchester United, Tottenham:

1x2 Betting System - Lay The Draw EPL Screenshot

EPL Draw Distribution 2008-09 to 2012-13

You can see that Arsenal are a good example of a team that “more or less” sticks to the average distribution season after season. There were no major deviations except in the 2009-2010 season. This means that positive betting results for Arsenal draw lays are fairly unlikely. If you can remember the table on the previous page, Arsenal’s red figures now seem justified.

Bookmakers therefore succeed quite well in pricing Arsenal’s home games and they are able to set the odds in a manner which, at the end of a season, show no great variations and the expected distribution matches quite reasonably the observed results.

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2011-2012 1X2 Betting System Review http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/1x2-betting/1x2-betting-system-hda-portfolio/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/1x2-betting/1x2-betting-system-hda-portfolio/#comments Sun, 29 Jul 2012 11:00:37 +0000 http://soccerwidow.com/?p=2036

Almost exactly a year ago Soccerwidow published the article Home–Draw–Away: HDA Systematic Betting and provided the following betting tips for the 2011-2012 English Premier League season:

  • Back Fulham at home
  • Back the Draw: Fulham away
  • Back Manchester City at home
  • Back Manchester United at home
  • Back the Draw: Aston Villa at home

If you followed these tips (and some people did: see comments section at the bottom of last year’s article) then you achieved a yield of between 20-30%, depending upon the type of staking plan used and the value of the obtained odds.

Here’s a summary table of the individual results (selection clashes and how they were dealt with are explained in more detail in the free spreadsheet available to download further down this page):

1X2 Betting System: 2011-12 Results

1X2 Betting System: 2011-12 Results

There were 5 recommended bets for 2011-12. The initial starting bank was calculated at 10 units x 5 bets = 50 units.

Employing a fixed win/fixed risk staking plan of 10 units per bet the initial bank was recycled 12.6 times (632.35 divided by 50). (Read also here why we consider this type of staking plan to be the most efficient).

So, the profit from this little venture amounted to 172.84 units, almost 3.5 times the initial bank. The yield achieved was 27.3% (profit divided by total stakes).

The graph below shows the development of the bank over the season:

1X2 Betting System: 2012-2012 Bank Growth

HDA Betting System: 2011-2012 Performance Graph

Free Spreadsheet Download – Should you wish to fully understand the calculations in this article and learn the Excel formulas for the staking plan:

DOWNLOAD: 1X2 RESULTS 2011-2012
(Excel .XLS Spreadsheet 158 KB)

In return for this freebie we would appreciate if you could share this article via your social network or give us a ‘thumbs-up’ with a ‘love’ or ‘like’ via Twitter or Facebook 🙂

Easy Money?

Naturally, professional betting is never as “easy” as it may seem at first glance. Indeed, in order to achieve this level of profit, 92 bet transactions were required together with relevant monitoring sheet entries.

Taking a generous estimate of 15 minutes per bet (finding best odds, log-in to relevant bookmaker account, find the match, calculate the stake, enter figures into a monitoring spreadsheet) the total time taken for these transactions would have been 23 hours.

On the basis of 10 units fixed win/fixed risk per bet a profit of 172.84 units was made translating into an hourly rate of 7.51 units. As our calculations are all based around a standard 10 units, you can factor the figures by any amount to calculate different profit/hourly rates for any stake of your choice.

For example, instead of 10 units = £10, use a factor of 5 to increase to 10 units = £50. The initial starting bank required would then have been £250 (5 bets x 10 units x factor 5), and the profit after one year of systematic betting would have added up to £864.20 (£172.84 x 5), equating to an hourly rate of £37.57 (7.51 units x 5).

However, these calculations of course only apply when the betting is approached without emotions and in an entirely professional manner.

Take a more enthusiastic approach and you could find yourself reading team news for every match, watching some of the games, experimenting with in-play betting, or procrastinating in other ways. It is easy to imagine spending an average of two to three hours either directly or indirectly involved on each bet. With our sample of 92 bets, this quickly adds-up to between 184 and 276 hours, thereby reducing the effectiveness of the system and its profits respectively to just 0.63 and 0.94 units per hour.

In arriving at the system, our calculations are based on the average odds in the bookmaker market which are then increased by a flat 10% rate to reflect the higher market odds usually available in the betting exchanges.

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VALUE Betting Example – Stuttgart Playing at Home http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/case-studies/value-betting-example-stuttgart-playing-at-home/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/case-studies/value-betting-example-stuttgart-playing-at-home/#comments Sat, 06 Aug 2011 09:29:01 +0000 http://soccerwidow.com/?p=547 As this weekend sees the start of the 2011-12 German football season and many of my readers are from Germany, I am in the process of finishing my statistical evaluation of Bundesliga 1, and to give you an idea of the direction I’m taking here’s an example for today’s fixture Stuttgart vs. Schalke (Saturday, 6.8.2011).

Relative Strength of the Home & Away Team:

German Bundesliga Match Betting - Stuttgart vs. Schalke

Ladbrokes Odds Around 24 Hours Prior To Kick-off


Quotient to indicate the relative ‘strength’ of the home and away teams: Ladbrokes Home odds (LBH) 2.37 divided by Ladbrokes Away odds (LBA) 2.80 = a quotient of 0.8464.

Historical Results:

German Bundesliga Betting - Stuttgart Home Games 2006-2011

Stuttgart Home Games: 5 Seasons’ Backing & Laying Results


The table above shows the results of the last 5 seasons covering all of Stuttgart’s home games and backing or laying all the possible outcomes (back home, back draw, lay away, etc.). The figures are based on the historical odds of Ladbrokes multiplied by a factor of 1.1 (as the market odds in betting exchange sites such as Betfair and Betdaq tend to be approximately 10% higher than traditional back-bet-only bookmakers).

For example, if you had backed the draw with 10 € in all of Stuttgart’s home fixtures between 2006-2011, then the accumulated loss would have been 270.85 €, despite the 10% increased odds. Backing Stuttgart at home would have brought a nice profit overall, but not in the last two years.

Since the table shows relatively steady profits for only one outcome, laying the draw if Stuttgart plays at home, I will concentrate upon it for this article.

Stuttgart at Home: Lay The Draw

German Bundesliga Betting - Stuttgart Home Games - Draw Frequency

Ladbrokes LBH/LBA Quotient Divisions & Frequency of Draws: Stuttgart at Home


This table shows the various LBH/LBA quotient clusters for laying the draw in Stuttgart’s home matches.

Before I continue, please read this refresher:

  • Odds are computed using the following formula: 1 divided by the probability
  • VALUE is calculated by comparing the ‘fair’ odds (own computation) with the ‘market’ odds.

The first line of the table shows games with an LBH/LBA quotient under 0.2. Mathematically speaking, this means the tranche of games where Stuttgart is marked down to win at odds as low as 1.33 whilst the away team’s odds to win are much higher and up to 8.5. In the whole 5 season history there were only 7 such games, 2 of which finished in draws. The average odds for draws in these 7 games were around 4.4 but with hindsight the ‘fair’ odds calculate to 3.5 (2 draws divided by 7 games = 28.6%; 1 divided by 28.6% = 3.5). This means that this group of matches has historically had negative VALUE, and indicates long-term losses for the future when laying the draw. Naturally, our aim is to avoid this and my advice is therefore to leave laying the draw well alone for now when Stuttgart are a heavy favourite on their own ground in league matches.

The next group (LBH/LBA quotient up to 0.3) offers very little VALUE (18.4%) and therefore this group can also be omitted.

However, the following group (between LBH/LBA quotients 0.3 and 1.5) is very interesting. The ‘fair’ odds after 5 seasons of statistics should be 7.86, but the odds in the market are on average offered at only 3.35. This group contains 55 fixtures, and in it there were only 7 draws (12.7%). If this trend continues then the possibility of an 87.3% hit rate exists together with mathematical VALUE of more than 100%. This looks enormously promising!

Head-to-Head Performance

(click on table to enlarge: opens in a new tab)

German Bundesliga Betting - Stuttgart vs. Schalke Historical Results

Stuttgart vs. Schalke - 2006-2011 Results


This match is a good example to analyse as both teams have enjoyed a long and continuous existence in Bundesliga 1 and so there is an unbroken sequence of head-to-head meetings to look at.

Of the last 5 league meetings at Stuttgart’s ground there was only a single draw (=20%), which is within the statistical deviation.

Prophecy for 2011-2012 Season:

Lay the Draw
if Stuttgart plays at home and
the LBH/LBA quotient is between 0.3 and 1.5

In order to validate this rule and check if it also applies to our Stuttgart Vs Schalke game, or perhaps to find an alternative VALUE bet we now turn our attention to Schalke playing away:


German Bundesliga Betting - Schalke Away Games 2006-2011

Schalke Away Games: 5 Seasons’ Backing & Laying Results


When Schalke plays away the results do not look as “regular” as they looked for Stuttgart playing at home. At first sight no general rule or pattern can be seen, the results in all 5 seasons seem to be irregular.

However, as we are looking at laying the draw, I did the same analysis with Schalke as with Stuttgart:


German Bundesliga Betting - Schalke Away Games - Draw Frequency

Ladbrokes LBH/LBA Quotient Divisions & Frequency of Draws: Schalke Away


The table above shows an enormously interesting result. Can you work out what it is before reading on?


When Schalke play away and the LBH/LBA quotient is under 0.4, it is better to back the draw as 4 out of 6 games in this cluster group finished drawn (home team odds: around 1.5, and Schalke away odds: over 5.0).

Magnifying glass over many words highlighting EducationImage: Login (Shutterstock)

Schalke didn’t win any of the games in this group but did return home with a draw in 66.7% of these matches. The ‘fair’ odds for backing the draw would therefore be somewhere in the region of 1.5 but the market offers odds around 4.0 in this group. Going forwards, clearly this is a VALUE bet but for backing rather than laying the draw.

Most of Schalke’s other lay-the-draw prospects cannot really be considered VALUE bets except for a very small group with LBH/LBA quotient over 0.8 but only when the draw odds are over 3.4 at Ladbrokes. This cluster group had 14 games in 5 seasons, of which, none finished in a draw.

Fortunately, Stuttgart vs Schalke on 6.8.2011 belongs to this group because as we have seen the LBH/LBA quotient is 0.8464 and therefore there are statistically good chances that this fixture will not finish in a draw. This of course means we are looking at a genuine VALUE bet.

Please be reminded that my statistical evaluation does not guarantee that Stuttgart vs. Schalke will not finish in a draw, although the probability is as low as 12.7%. Of course, 12.7% is not zero. All I have done is identify a bet which holds a very high mathematical VALUE for the bettor and a good statistical chance of succeeding.

Conclusion

Please don’t gamble your entire bank on this one bet but feel free to include it in your portfolio. Making money from betting is only possible if you regard it as a long-term and very speculative financial investment. There is never a guarantee that a certain bet will ‘come in’. However, statistically speaking, there is a kind of security that if one calculates correctly, X% of all bets will be successful during the course of a season. The secret of a successful gambler is to have a strict staking plan combined with a well thought through system filled solely with VALUE bets and then to rely on repetition, putting money on them, over and over again.

As always, I wish you good luck and success!

N.B.

P.S. The Ladbrokes screenshot at the beginning of this article shows odds of 8.0 for the correct full-time score of 1-0 to Stuttgart. They have won 9 times (10.6%) by this scoreline in the last 5 seasons, whilst Schalke have lost by the same scoreline 7 times (8.2%) in their away games over the same period. The ‘fair’ odds should therefore be somewhere between 9.4 and 12.1. If you fancy backing this scoreline then I would advise finding odds higher than 12.1 before you can consider it a VALUE bet.

Also, in the 5 seasons analysed, the half-time/full-time result of home/home was recorded in 31 of Stuttgart’s 85 home fixtures (36.47%). The ‘fair’ odds should therefore be 2.74, which at first glance makes Ladbrokes’ offer of 3.75 seem like a good value bet. However, Schalke’s away games saw this combination happen only 19 times in 85 matches (22.35%), which would mean ‘fair’ odds of 4.47. Calculating the average of 2.74 and 4.47 is 3.6 meaning that 3.75 holds very little value (4%).

Addendum

The match on 6.8.2011 between Stuttgart and Schalke ended in a 3-0 victory for the home team (half-time: 1-0).

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