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Man and woman heads shown as percent sign / Köpfe von Mann und Frau dargestellt als Prozentzeichen

Are Odds at Betting Exchanges Always Better than with Bookmakers?

The answer to this question is unequivocally YES and only in rare or extenuating circumstances are odds in betting exchanges priced less than with a bookmaker. The reason is simple: If the ‘back’ price for an event with a bookmaker...
Gentleman sits cross legged in a chair with eyes closed and palms raised in a summoning pose / Mann sitzt im Schneidersitz auf einem Stuhl mit geschlossenen Augen in einer Beschwörungsstellung

The Challenge of Predicting Individual Events

Why is it so awfully difficult to predict single events accurately, when the synergy of multiple events aggregated together seems far easier to guess? Many people are able to predict how things will develop in their personal lives over a period...
Wizard with glowing magical orb / Zauberer mit glühender magischer Kugel

Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 207 Bets, 07/12/2011 – 31/05/2012

The end of the month has arrived again and after 17 match analyses and 48 more value bet recommendations, it is time for our summary. May was the first month we published our value bet articles and predictions in both Betfair’s German...
Wizard with glowing magical orb / Zauberer mit glühender magischer Kugel

Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 159 Bets, from 07/12/2011 to 30/04/2012

After five months of writing match previews and bet recommendations both in the English and German language versions of Betfair’s blog, it is time to review the results and ultimately compare them with Betfair’s own odds (i.e. predicted...
Handcuffed businessman with bank notes / Mit Handschellen am Rücken gefesselter Geschäftsmann mit Banknoten in den Händen

Betfair Premium Charge Part 2

Death Of The Dream: So, my case scenario revolves around the fact that you are statistically more likely to belong to the 99.5% majority of Betfair customers who have a tendency to lose more bets than you win. If so, you can rest assured that...
G-cramp squeezing oil from coins

Betfair Premium Charge Part 1

The Naked Truth: I had always believed that if I found one good strategy (or hopefully more), I could sit back and earn an easy, tax-free living from betting, whilst at the same time having fun operating this blog and explaining to other people...
Wizard with glowing magical orb / Zauberer mit glühender magischer Kugel

Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 109 bets, from 07/12/2011 to 31/03/2012

Patience and persistence is paying off. Since December 2011, Soccerwidow has published regular match previews and betting recommendations mostly for English Premier League and German Bundesliga 1 games in the German language Betfair blog. For...
Detail shot of wooden stakes in lake / Nahaufnahme von Holzpfählen im See

Introduction To Staking Plans

Planning for Success: Having spent many long hours perfecting a reliable bet selection system, it would be a shame not to see its full potential realised. Soccerwidow’s recent articles offering predictions in the English and German Betfair...
Wizard with glowing magical orb / Zauberer mit glühender magischer Kugel

Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 56 Bets, from 07/12/2011 to 29/02/2012

It is tricky to prove mathematically that betting success is not connected with luck because ‘luck’ is impossible to quantify or express in a formulaic manner. However, it is possible to show empirically that betting selections chosen entirely...
Female fortune teller holding a crystal ball to her eye / Wahrsagerin hält eine Kristallkugel am Auge

What Does ‘Form’ Mean in Football?

Please Discuss… Now and again Soccerwidow receives enquiries as to whether we consider ‘form’ in our match analyses and value bet recommendations. The reader will have to excuse our increasing ignorance of the concept of ‘form’...