Betting Advice – Soccerwidow http://www.soccerwidow.com Football Betting Maths, Value Betting Strategies Thu, 24 May 2018 00:21:27 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.8.6 1×2 HDAFU Tables User Guide: 6 Easy Steps to Find the most Lucrative Betting Systems http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/hdafu-tables-user-guide/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/hdafu-tables-user-guide/#comments Sun, 06 May 2018 01:29:59 +0000 http://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=5826 more »]]> Our HDAFU tables have evolved tremendously over the years. They are a complete statistical analysis of historical performance over the previous five seasons of the Home win, Draw, Away win, Favourite win and Underdog win (H-D-A-F-U). They serve to identify the most profitable odds ranges in each bet type.

To help you understand why we value this product so highly, here is our Definitive Guide for using the 6th Generation tables to their maximum potential.

In order to help you contextualise the screenshots in our examples below, you can download a dummy version of the 2018 Brazil Série A Whole Season Table FOR FREE here.

Please note that this is a full example only, and the mass of formulas which run the complex mechanisms of the calculations have been disabled.

The size of this Excel .XLSX workbook is 989 KB.

>>> free hdafu table download <<<



It’s difficult for us to put into words how important the HDAFU tables are to us and our own betting adventures. But what we can say is that we have complete confidence in them to do their job. And from testing them in a live setting, we know that they are an extremely reliable method of building lucrative betting portfolios.

Quite simply, they are the best and most user-friendly tools available for nailing down value betting systems in every league you apply them to.

They reveal the DNA of a league, and provide a hidden level of detail that makes finding and exploiting the sweet spots so easy and so rewarding.

The next six steps will probably change the way you think about betting…

Step 1 – Observation

By default, the HDAFU tables open on the Data Tab showing the financial summary of each bet type. Here are the figures from an example league.

(Click on the image below to enlarge it in a new tab):

HDAFU Table Data Tab: Whole Season Results Summaries

HDAFU Table Data Tab: Whole Season Results Summaries


The totals along the top row show the effects of betting on every match over five seasons. In our example league the totals are (from left to right) Home win (-7,329), Draw (-835), Away win (+8,236), Favourites (-2,594), and Underdogs (+3,501).

You can see from this graphic that away wins look the most promising backing system with a profit of 8,236 units from 100 unit stakes.

To customise the stake amount enter what you want in the Fixed Stake box at the top of each bet type in the Data Tab.

The image above shows the full five season cold analysis. If you enter a different stake amount the financial values will change, but the percentages will always remain the same. This being the case, we have fixed these percentages as a benchmark to better gauge the improvements we will make with our filtering exercise later.

The Odds Toggle is for testing the effects of the odds you are getting when playing the systems for real – you can ignore it during your analysis.

You can also leave the betting exchange commission rate at zero. Again, use it for backing system monitoring purposes when you start betting on or paper testing your systems of choice.

Okay, we fancy away wins in this particular league but let’s now have a look at the Inflection Points Tab to see if this backs-up our observation.

(Click on the image below to enlarge it in a new tab):

HDAFU Table Inflection Points Tab: Inflection Points Overview

HDAFU Table Inflection Points Tab: Inflection Points Overview


Away wins are certainly financially the most profitable bet type but the profit curve doesn’t really begin rising until odds of 3.30 are reached. Overall profit at this point is 463 units and this rises to a peak of 13,502 units around odds of 8.60.

These two points on the graph would therefore be our two inflection points: Odds of 3.30 where the curve begins to rise; Odds of 8.60 at the pinnacle, the point at which profits begin to fall again.

However, notice there is a big portion of the away wins curve which is a zero-sum game. This ‘hole’ in our profit curve begins around odds of 3.75 (6,653 units). At this point, the curve falls away again, encounters what we call ‘statistical noise’, and only recovers at odds of around 6.52, when the profit figure surmounts its previous high at 7,184.

HDAFU Table Inflection Points Tab: Inflection Points Odds Intervals 3.75 - 6.52

HDAFU Table Inflection Points Tab: Inflection Points Odds Intervals 3.75 – 6.52

In between these two points is the potential for a lot of wasted effort and not a lot of gain.

We can see the extent of this by scrolling down and looking at the inflection point intervals.

(Click on the right-hand image to enlarge it in a new tab):

This image shows the start of the 3.75 odds sector at the top and the end of the 6.52 odds sector at the bottom.

The yellow column indicates the running total of matches up to each cluster of matches.

We can see that our two odds of 3.75 and 6.52 encompass roughly 330 matches – the difference between 1,115 indicated at the 6.52 break-off point and 785 at the starting point of the 3.75 cluster.

That’s 330 bets over a five season period that are simply not worth making; or 66 bets in a season.

HDAFU Table Inflection Points Tab: Inflection Points Odds Intervals 3.30 - 8.60

HDAFU Table Inflection Points Tab: Inflection Points Odds Intervals 3.30 – 8.60

We can see this clearer by looking at the same snapshot between our original inflection points of 3.30 and 8.60.

:(Click on the left-hand image to enlarge it in a new tab)

In this odds range, we have roughly 587 bets (1,221 minus 634). We now know that more than 56% of these (330 bets) are not worthwhile making.

This leaves only 257 bets but the away win profit sectors between the inflection points seem to be split into two areas of the curve: from odds of 3.30 to 3.75 (medium risk system, accounting for around 160 bets), and then from odds of 6.52 to 8.60 (high risk system; around 100 bets).

If we were to continue our analysis of away wins we would eventually see that the three elements (the medium risk sweet spot, the high risk sweet spot, and the statistical noise in-between) combine to give us a bumpy ride.

Our expected hit-rate will be tempered by that area of noise, and yield will be lower because of the size of the zero-sum area and the number of pointless bets within it.

This means a lot of unpaid work to perform, placing many bets that maintain the status quo and not much else. On top of this, the losing streaks will be greater.

Therefore, why not split into two systems in this league?

The synergy we have mentioned before about many systems supporting each other is what makes the HDAFU betting systems so viable.

However, we also mentioned that you should find the single best system in a league to play alongside the other best systems in the other leagues within your portfolio.

In our away win example, we would need to choose the better of the two systems we have identified. Either backing away wins at odds between 3.30 and 3.75, or between 6.52 and 8.60. Choose one or the other, not both.

We recommend never to play multiple systems in the same bet type. The synergy effect is diminished as ultimately, one of the two systems is not the best we can find.

Ideally, we are looking for synergy between the absolute single best systems in each league within our portfolio, without creating a situation where one system supports another within an individual league.

With different bet types in the same league (e.g. 1×2 market and over/under goals market) this is not an issue, but we would go as far as avoiding the conflict of interest between HT and FT 1×2 systems in the same league, for example.

Away wins initially looked great but is there something better?

Have a look once again at the Inflection Points graphs to try and see what it is.

As is typical of an underdog backing profile, the high risk/high return nature of this bet type produces a noisy curve, one full of jagged peaks and troughs. There are only small rising areas to analyse. Anything you can analyse into promising profits will contain few betting opportunities in a season, with long runs of losing bets to cope with.

Backing the favourite has one area between odds of 1.90 and 2.10 but we can see at these odds not a huge profit is created over five seasons (less than 3,500 units).

The home win is a misery for backing. Again, the sweet spot is between 1.90 and 2.10 but the profit is less than 2,000 units.

That leaves us with backing the draw. There is a large, rising area in the curve beginning at draw odds of 3.32 (-2,008 units), and peaking at 3.65 (7,170 units). It represents a potential profit chunk of 9,178 units over five seasons.

This is better illustrated by superimposing our inflection points onto our graph – We are interested in only the portion of the curve in-between the red arrows:

HDAFU Tables: Inflection Points Graphic

The shape of this curve is what you should be looking for when identifying the first system to analyse in your leagues of choice.

It is the classic, gently rising curve from bottom left to top right. It is relatively smooth, with a far smaller amount of statistical noise.

Therefore, this is the bet type we will analyse as our example.

Next Page: Step 2 – Hiding, Sorting & Filtering

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The Science of Calculating Winning and Losing Streaks http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/science-calculating-winning-losing-streaks/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/science-calculating-winning-losing-streaks/#comments Fri, 20 Apr 2018 20:46:20 +0000 http://soccerwidow.com/?p=5514 more »]]> This article is a short journey to the theme ‘risk management’ as we are often asked…

How high should be a starting bank?
Is 5,000 units enough?

Well, there is no standard answer to this question. It all depends on the individual strategy.

Young woman pointing on a calculatorImage: Sergey Novikov (Shutterstock)

However, what is possible, is to calculate bank fluctuations (i.e. winning and losing sequences).

With the help of knowing the best and worst case scenarios you can determine the ideal starting bank for any betting system of your choice.

At the end of the article you will find a few useful exercises to practise, with the solutions available as a free download to all of you who would like them.

Length of Winning and Losing Streaks

It stands to reason that the smaller the probability of an event occurring (i.e. higher odds), the longer the likely losing streak will be (in between winning bets).

However, the big question is how often and for how long will the losing (and winning) streaks transpire?

It is possible to mathematically calculate many things with statistics, including streaks of luck and bad luck. However, it is important to note that no matter how accurate the results may appear, they are ‘models’ (a formal representation of a theory).

In this article, we are talking about probabilities; what can we ‘predict’ about how things may develop in the future. Please bear in mind that any such hypothesis is always a “could happen” not a “will happen”.

Of course, the larger the sample size (i.e. number of bets), the more likely the prediction is to be correct. But apart from the bookmakers themselves, who else has a betting portfolio comprising thousands of bets every weekend?

Winning and Losing Streaks Formula

The longest expected losing streak (or winning streak) can be calculated using the following formula:

Formula longest losing streak

n = number of trials (i.e. total number of bets)
ln = natural logarithm1
P = probability2
| .. | = absolute value or ‘modulus’

1Suffice to say, explaining what natural logarithm is would be worthy of a series of articles. For the time being, use Excel to calculate this for you.

2For winning streak calculations use the positive value (i.e. the probability of winning). For losing streak calculations use the negative probability value. For example, if the probability to win the bet is 33% then the probability that the bet loses (negative probability) is 67%.

In practice, the formula is best applied to situations where you constantly bet repeatedly on the same probability, for example, on ‘red’ at the roulette wheel: its probability remains exactly the same with every new spin of the wheel.

For football betting the concept is much more difficult to apply as each bet is likely to have a different probability (e.g. one Over 2.5 Goals bet with a 55.3% chance, and the next with a 62.1% chance, etc.).

However, you can group bets in probability clusters – for example, bets with a 55%-60% expected hit rate, bets with a 60%-65% expected hit rate, and so on.

Winning and Losing Streaks TableLongest Winning and Losing Streaks, depending on the number of bets (Examples for 50, 500 and 1,000 bets shown)

The tables above show the calculations of the expected maximum number of winning and losing streaks, depending on the expected hit rate (probability of the bet to win).

To read the tables, let’s explain the 70% line (odds in the region 1.4 and 1.45); in other words, bets with a 7 in 10 chance of winning.

The table on the left calculates the expectations of 50 tries (50 bets in a row, one after the next). You can see that the player will experience at least one streak of three lost bets in a row somewhere in the sequence.

On the other hand, he can expect at least one series of 11 winning bets in a row during the same sequence of 50 bets.

In contrast look at the 30% line (odds in the region of 3.2 to 3.4). In a series of 50 bets the bettor must expect at least one sequence of 11 consecutive losing bets, but will probably see only one set of three consecutive winning bets.

To develop a sense of probabilities and sequences, you can experiment with a dice. It has six faces; in other words, a probability of 16.67% (1 in 6 chance) of successfully landing on a chosen number.

Choose a number and count the number of throws until you succeed to roll it. Count also the number of consecutive successful rolls.

Exercise:

Choose two numbers that you do not want to roll (e.g. 5 and 6).

This means you have a 66.67% chance that one of the remaining four numbers is rolled.

In football betting terms, this equates to wagering on something like the full-time ‘Under 3.5 Goals’ market at odds of 1.50. (This experiment is just a little faster than waiting for 50 games to finish!)

Take a pen and paper and record 100 throws of the dice. If one of your four chosen numbers arrives mark a 1 on your paper; if the 5 or 6 are thrown, mark a 0. Count the number of winning and losing streaks you experience.

What is the maximum number of winning and losing streaks you experience in a sample size of 100 throws (bets)?


Having learned how to calculate the expected length of winning and losing streaks, the next question to ask is:

How many bets is it likely to take before I encounter ‘X’ losses in a row?

Timing of Winning and Losing Streaks

This formula is actually very simple:

Formula for Winning and Losing Sequences

= 1 divided by P, to the power of a

P = probability (expected hit rate or loss rate)
a = number of won or lost bets in a row

In the tables below you can see how many attempts (bets) it needs to experience a specific, expected length of luck or bad luck. Again, the assumption is that the bettor bets all the time on the same probability:

Winning and Losing Sequences CalculationsExpected time of occurrence of winning and losing streaks, depending on the hit rate

Reading the table:

Looking firstly in the right-hand column at the Losing Sequences, if the expected hit rate is 45% (what you should ‘expect’ at odds of around 2.2), then it is likely that you will experience a sequence of three losing bets in a row by the time your sixth bet is settled.

After 20 such bets it is likely that you will have seen a losing streak as long as five bets in a row.

Looking at the Winning Sequences column: you will win three times in a row at some stage during a series of 11 bets.

However, winning five in a row may only be seen once in every 54 bets.

As we mentioned before, in football betting it is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to find bets, all with the same probability of success.

However, you should at least try to understand the theory behind winning and losing streaks, as it will be easier on your nerves when you do encounter the inevitable run of bad fortune.

In particular, a thorough understanding of losing streaks is of enormous importance when setting both the size of your starting bank and stakes per bet.

Example:

A bettor prefers bets within the odds range of 2.0 to 2.5 with a hit rate between 40% and 50%. He plans to place 50 bets (e.g. two bets per round on 25 rounds of matches).

After looking at the tables, he knows that the maximum losing sequence expected is likely to be as long as six to eight lost bets in a row. Therefore, he knows that there may be at least one sequence of three or four consecutive rounds (weekends) when all bets lose.

After every 5th to 8th bet, he is also aware that he is likely to experience a loss of three consecutive lost bets (e.g. one weekend loses both bets, the following weekend only one loses).

He also knows that every 13 to 32 bets there will even be a streak of five losing bets in a row.

The bettor is fully aware that he has to take this into consideration and plan the starting bank accordingly to be able to ‘sit through’ these losing streaks.

Of course, he also knows that winning sequences will arrive too. In his case, with some ‘luck’, he may experience a winning sequence of five bets in a row after 32 bets. Every eight to 16 bets he will have a ‘lucky’ streak of three wins in a row.

This is certainly quite a fluctuation. When these ‘bad luck’ and ‘good luck’ streaks actually happen, nobody knows. However, what we do know is: They will happen!

Starting Bank – Rule of Thumb

A starting bank should be approximately five times the maximum expected losing streak. The reason for this is that a losing streak can happen right at the beginning, immediately followed by another bad run of luck. We are talking statistics here!

So if a bettor wants to stake 10 units per bet, the starting bank must be nine times (expected losing streak) the stake of 10 units multiplied by five = 450 units. Then he can risk 2.2% of his bank each time he bets (10 divided by 450). If losing, the stakes will remain constant at 2.2% and, if winning, raised gradually.

Questions to ask before setting the starting bank:

  1. What hit rate is expected (probability to win the bets)?
  2. How many bets are planned for the season?
  3. How long will the longest losing streak be?
  4. What is the desired stake per bet?

Calculation of the starting bank:

Length of maximum losing streak X planned stake per bet X five


Exercises: Losing & Winning Streaks

  1. A bettor pursues a strategy with a win probability of 60% per bet (e.g. Under 3.5 Goals). He places one bet after the other; in other words, he waits for the outcome of each bet before placing the next. In total he places 50 bets.

    What is the longest ‘losing streak’ (bad luck) that he can expect? How long is the longest ‘winning streak’ (luck) that can be expected?

  2. Same example as in (1): A strategy with a probability of 60% per bet; placing one bet after the other.

    This time our punter is hoping for a ‘winning streak’ (luck) of 5 consecutive wins. How often does that happen?

  3. A gambler pursues a strategy with a probability of 20% per bet (e.g. ‘betting on the underdog’). Again, he places one bet after the other.

    With a total of 500 bets, how long is the longest ‘losing streak’ that he must expect? After how many bets can he expect the longest ‘winning streak’?

  4. Same example as in (3): Strategy with a probability of 20% per bet; placing one bet after another

    The bettor was hoping for a ‘winning streak’ (good luck) of five consecutive wins. How often does that happen? After which bet number should he expect ‘bad luck’ of five consecutive losses?

  5. Following the above two strategies (one with a 60% chance to win, the other with 20%) our bettor stakes 10 units per bet.

    How high should the starting bank be for the 60% strategy, and how much for the 20% strategy?

    Note: The initial bank should be approximately five times the maximum losing streak based on a total of 500 bets placed.


Answers to the Exercises

>>> download answers <<<



Just click on the button above and click on “Proceed to checkout” button in the new tab, then enter your name and e-mail address. Our automatic service will then deliver the file to you via e-mail, free of charge. The size of the PDF file is 320KB.

Optimising Your Bankroll

The factor 5 used in this article to determine the betting bank is a risk variable for risk-averse bettors. It is also the factor advisable for strategies with a 45% to 55% win probability (odds between 1.8 and 2.2).

Here is another article: How to Calculate Losing Streaks & Optimal Bankroll in which we provide a more detailed account of setting the ideal starting bank.

Risk management in sports betting is the foundation stone upon which all of your betting transactions should be built.

Risk management encompasses risk assessment, risk control and capital requirements, all of which cannot be addressed until you understand how winning and losing streaks are likely to impact upon your starting bank.

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Frequently Asked Questions – Fundamentals of Sports Betting Course http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/frequently-asked-questions-fundamentals-of-sports-betting-course-over-under/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/frequently-asked-questions-fundamentals-of-sports-betting-course-over-under/#comments Sun, 15 Apr 2018 06:32:38 +0000 http://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=5602 more »]]> Here are the most frequent questions asked by our readers and customers about the course. If you can’t find an answer to your particular question, then please free to ask us using the comments section at the bottom of this page. We usually reply within 24 hours.

These FAQ’s refer to the: Fundamentals of Sports Betting: Betting on Over Under ‘X’ Goals course.

Click on the arrows to reveal the answers.

Popular Questions

What’s the point of calculating odds yourself?

This is a very, very popular question and is answered in a dedicated article: Are Betting Odds Worthwhile Calculating? Are Betting Odds Always Fair?

Am I correct in assuming that you don’t use the usual criteria that 98% of ‘hobby punters’ employ when forming their opinions? I mean the last 6 games, the H2H stats, team news, etc.

Are your parameters different from the usual bog-standard criteria?

Yes, absolutely. The gambling industry as a whole relies to a large extent on the ignorance of its customers.

This course is designed to give the reader the essential, fundamental knowledge necessary to understand the bookmaker market.

We teach descriptive statistics and the reader learns how to look at data sets, calculate own probabilities and odds, analyse the market odds on offer, and make informed decisions when predicting football results.

Many false beliefs that the majority of gamblers and fans of football have about betting will be exposed and stripped away.

If team news, injuries, suspensions, recent form, etc. would have any relevance to setting odds how would bookmakers, who publish their prices weeks in advance, stay in business?

Will the course help identify value in-play?

With respect to in-play value the course is very helpful as you can apply the knowledge of calculating probabilities to both the half-time and full-time goals market.

Then you can choose, for example, matches with a high probability to score during the first half. These matches you can back, say Over 2.5 goals before kick-off, and lay them as soon as the first goal has been scored.

We are going to address this in more detail in an article to follow.

Can odds be calculated for Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 using this course?

Yes, the odds for all Over and Under options can be calculated using this course including Total Goals.

The course is about the German Bundesliga. Why not the EPL?

Yes, we are fully aware that the majority of our readers are far more interested in the EPL than the Bundesliga, but the problem is that the average punter is very influenced by his/her opinion and ‘knowledge’ about their own supported league.

It was therefore important to choose a more neutral league for the course, one where gut feelings and emotions are less strong. It had to be a league which is also well known, with plenty of bookmakers offering odds, and at the same time one where the majority of our English speaking audience is unlikely to connect emotionally.

Thus, the Bundesliga it is!

Are the principles and analytical techniques in this course transferable to other European football leagues?

Absolutely! The principles and techniques are transferable to any football league worldwide.

>>> read an excerpt from the book <<<

Product-Related Questions

Is it correct to say that the course is exclusively for the Over/Under Goals market or are the skills learned from it transferable to other bet types, such as 1×2 betting or Asian Handicap?

Yes, that is correct. Fundamentals of Sports Betting – Over/Under ‘X’ Goals is the first of a series of books educating the ‘Fundamentals of Sports Betting’.

There are more topics planned such as ‘Betting on Home, Draw, Away’, ‘Asian Handicap’, or ‘Betting In-Play’, and so on. Of course, it will take a while until all of these books have been written and published, but we reassure you that more course books are on their way.

For the first volume we have chosen the Over/Under goal market because this is the easiest betting market to teach statistics and maths without the need to dive any further into much more advanced formulas and concepts. You will need a basic grounding before moving on to more complex calculations for bet types with multiple options such as 1×2, HT/FT and the Correct Score market.

The course explains everything using European odds. Can I get the course with fractional odds?

Sorry, but we don’t offer the course in any other odds format than European odds.

The majority of calculations are carried out using probabilities (percentages) and these can easily be converted into fractional odds, or any other odds format. See our article here: Understanding Betting Odds – Moneyline, Fractional Odds, Decimal Odds, Hong Kong Odds, IN Odds, MA Odds

The automated Excel file sounds particularly interesting. What exactly is automated?

The tables in the Excel file are fully automated. Just select a team from the list in the ‘Betting Tables’ tab (cells B3 to E3) and every calculation in the workbook will update automatically to those of that team’s stats. How this works exactly and what the numbers mean is explained in greater detail in the course.

Is the course only available as a PDF or can I get a printed version like the one shown on the advert?

The PDF has been professionally optimised for double-sided printing. Just print your book in full-colour with a cover and add a binding of your choice.


Purchase Questions

There is a heading “Value Betting using the Value Calculator”. Does that mean that I will receive the Value Calculator (VC) for free when I buy the course?

You don’t need the Value Calculator to understand the course, therefore the VC is not supplied with the course.

When we refer to the ‘Value Calculator’ we explain how it works and what the calculations mean in terms of Over/Under bets. Of course, the VC also contains a wide range of other bet types such as FT and HT 1×2, Correct Scores, HT/FT, and many more. The goal of the course is to enable the learner to create his/her own Excel application which works for him/her. Empowering learners to think for themselves is one of our ethics.

Having worked through the course you should be able to build a Value Calculator yourself, if your Excel skills are good enough.

If I purchase the course, what else do I get?

The course comes in an electronic format and the bundle includes the course book (PDF) and a Bundesliga cluster table (Excel), which the examples are based upon.

In addition, you will receive for free the very latest Bundesliga table for the current season (valued at £27.50).

Within the course you will find a discount code enabling you to download for free the German Bundesliga sheet in future seasons, meaning that you will always have access to the most current Bundesliga cluster table, forever: it doesn’t matter when you bought the course.

Could you tell me where I can buy the Value Calculator if I can’t build one myself?

Here’s a link to the sales page: True Odds & Value Detector: League Games with H2H History

>>> product specifics <<<

Ordering & Delivery

How can I pay for the course? I have neither a PayPal account nor a credit card.

Details of alternative payment options can be found here: Payment Options. They include Skrill (Moneybookers), Neteller and bank transfer (EFT).

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To find out the exchange rate please follow this link to Google, which gives you the exchange rate of the day.

I live in Hungary; if I understand you correctly, the purchase price is therefore £59.00 * 1.27 = £74.93. Is that right?

Yes, this is correct. Soccerwidow Ltd is obliged in accordance with applicable law to charge Value Added Tax (VAT) on sales of digital products and services to customers within the European Union (EU).

The VAT rate applied to these products and services is based on the location of the customer. See the current EU VAT Rates.

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However, once you have paid you will get the product download link delivered immediately to your inbox. As long as you don’t download the course and cluster tables you have a cancellation period of 14 days and the right of a full return. Otherwise, once downloaded, there are no returns for digital content.

If you have made a genuine mistake, it’s worth contacting us to see if you can get a refund. Normally, we will offer an exchange for another product or supply a discount code for future purchases.

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‘Allowing’ communications from digitalproductdelivery.com and soccerwidow.com is actually quite important because we do upgrade products from time to time and you certainly don’t want to miss the free download link we will send out to buyers.


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Please check your Spam folder; sometimes our automated emails from GetDPD appear there. If you can’t find it please email to support[at]soccerwidow[dot]com, and we will get it sorted.

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The download time limit is set to two weeks from the moment you purchase. The reason being that customers have a cancellation period of 14 days with the right of a full return as long as they haven’t downloaded the product within this period.

Therefore, if you have not downloaded your product, after a period of two weeks has expired you can either apply for a refund or send an email to support[at]soccerwidow[dot]com for a link reactivation.

However, we sometimes get reports that the download link was received straight away but after opening it, a message appears stating that the download is ‘expired’. This is usually a problem associated with your browser. Please clean your cache and press the F5 button to refresh the screen.

Another request we occasionally receive is from buyers who have lost their original product or forgotten to download it, and then many months later wish to reactivate the download link. We are really sorry, but our grace period is 6 months only. After this time a fee of £10 will be charged for us to trace you in the system and manually reactivate the purchase.


Support Questions

I am having trouble at the beginning of the course. I don’t know how to calculate answers to some of the exercises.

Although this is a beginner’s course aimed at people with little odds calculation knowledge and basic Excel skills, it may be quite hard for those who have always found maths quite a challenge at school. Just take your time, read each chapter several times, repeat the practice areas, solve all the exercises, try to understand everything. You will be rewarded with knowledge.

To keep it simple, the course contains no shortcuts. All calculations need to be done manually. Once you master the course and understand everything you will certainly develop a method to make it easier for yourself.

All formulas are given in the course either in the chapter of the exercise, or at the end of the book together with the solutions of the exercises.

If you need help, you are welcome to ask specific questions here on this FAQ page.

Regarding the historical odds you’ve used to calculate the Home/Away quotient – Are these the opening odds of the bookmakers or the odds after adjusting to market conditions?

The course uses football-data.co.uk data. These odds are taken on Friday evenings before the weekend games, and on Monday evenings for the midweek games.

Our approach is to have plenty of time to do all the calculations and make decisions, and totally remove the need to sit in front of the computer just before a game starts. There are loved ones to share time with and lots of other nice things to do than spend time in front of a computer on a Saturday or Sunday morning.

Anyway, if you wish to use opening odds then you would have to adjust the tables accordingly. However, even if the clusters move slightly, there really shouldn’t be too much of a movement because odds don’t change so much that they significantly affect the HO/AO quotient. To play it safe, for fast moving odds you can always use two adjoining clusters when calculating odds.

You describe in the course two different methods to find value bets. Is it true that there are only two options to calculate value? The Value Calculator method and the Cluster Table method?

The course explains two different approaches to find value bets:
(1) Value Calculator
(2) Cluster grouping with HO/AO quotient

In reality, there are many more than just these two methods. However, these two are perfectly adequate, and they both work.

There is nothing wrong with admiring complexity, but solutions should be sought in simplicity. The course provides “simple” answers.

Can I e-mail you with any questions I might have about the course?

Please always ask any questions via the comment functions at the bottom of any article in this blog. You will receive our answer submitted directly to your inbox, with no need for continuous checking. Or see our Contact Us page for more information.

How do I get support?

You can ask questions via the comment functions in any articles on this site. We normally reply within a few hours. The answer will be submitted to your inbox.

In addition, if you subscribe to a post which interests you, then you will also receive questions and replies other readers have posted on the same article, and of course, our replies too.


Ethical Questions

How much do you earn based on your theories? Do you have any statistics for your betting history?

We simply don’t have any ‘theories’. We educate the public about bookmaker maths – bookmakers certainly don’t grow their businesses based purely on ‘theories’.

Regarding how much we earn: Sorry to disappoint, but we don’t like to brag about our personal successes – there are far too many websites already blinding their readers with such information. However, we have published results of our past value betting exploits located in our match preview archive. Here you will find plenty of articles with previews, maths and statistics, and this particular article is also worth pointing out:

Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 274 Bets, from 07/12/2011 to 30/06/2012

2011-12 was a time when we were writing match previews for Betfair Germany based on our ‘theories’. Unfortunately for our growing band of followers Betfair withdrew from the German market in October 2012, and our match previews stopped. Why?

Because we lost our client (Betfair) who paid us for match previews.

Why didn’t we just simply continue publishing match previews on Soccerwidow?

Time limitations, mainly. Writing a single match preview, including all the necessary calculations, takes up to 6 hours. People love reading match previews but they are somewhat reluctant to pay for them…

I keep asking myself if your ‘system’ works so well, why don’t you earn your own money with it instead of selling it?

This is a question that probably interests many readers and it appears in the blog every now and then.

Firstly, the course is not a ‘system’. It is a ‘simple’ maths book (at least for us). A little statistics, a little probability theory, a little about standard deviations, etc. This is what odds compilers do in their sleep when they calculate their odds.

Secondly, there are enough people who teach financial analysis without ever trading professionally in shares. If every professionally trained person would trade, then there wouldn’t be any teachers. And if nobody wanted to teach, what then?

Thirdly, a day has only 24 hours and we too sometimes have to sleep. We run two websites (Soccerwidow and Fussballwitwe). Running these blogs takes an enormous amount of time. Everybody has to make a decision what they want to do in life… We run websites, write courses and develop betting tools. When we have time, we occasionally place a bet or two, but that’s our personal business – betting itself is purely a hobby for us.

In the betting business, in order to win, somebody must lose. Do you consider the moral side of betting, or is it just a numbers game?

The moral side is a very good question…

The intention of this blog is to educate people about gambling. Indeed, to teach them everything they need to know about gambling because our strong belief is that the more educated people are, the more informed decisions they will make.

We truly believe that people who buy our products and read our articles will eventually follow one of two paths:

(1) they will become far more successful punters (winners) than they were, or
(2) they will reduce their betting habit or stop it altogether. There are many qualities required to be a successful bettor and unfortunately, not everyone has them or can/will ever attain them.

If we can point you down either road then this is the achievement we are looking for. It’s our own way of fighting gambling addiction; we help people to better themselves and succeed, or to face facts and shed their habit to save money and free time for family and friends.

>>> buy the ebook <<<



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Understanding the Settings in Oddsportal http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/understanding-oddsportal-settings/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/understanding-oddsportal-settings/#comments Thu, 15 Feb 2018 21:16:08 +0000 http://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=6151 more »]]> The only free source of historical, time-stamped odds available for a range of sports (not just soccer), comes courtesy of www.oddsportal.com.

From a football perspective, although we personally limit ourselves to analysing only the previous five seasons’ data with the Soccerwidow HDAFU Tables, or the previous 10 calendar years’ match results with the Soccerwidow Value Calculator, data on Oddsportal is in fact available for the last 20 seasons or more in leagues with enough popularity and longevity, such as the English Premier League.

Registering with Oddsportal

Signing-up is simple and places no obligation on you whatsoever. Our own account was set up many years ago and in all that time we have received no emails of any kind from Oddsportal, its partners, or any associated spam, a rarity following sign-ups of any nature these days.

Oddsportal’s priority is to achieve sign-ups via their site to the bookmakers they feature in order to earn affiliate commission from those customers. You don’t have to sign-up with any bookmakers, but you can continue to use all of Oddsportal’s features as a registered member.

However, if you choose not to register for an account, you will be restricted to seeing and exploring the odds of just a small selection (usually 14-16 in number) of the 80+ bookmakers Oddsportal features at any one time.

As an aside, Soccerwidow is not affiliated in any way with Oddsportal but owing to their importance in the grand scheme of things, we are always happy to recommend them.

Oddsportal Settings

Once you have registered and signed-in to your account, you will need to customise your Oddsportal layout. In the top right hand corner of the home page you will see the settings button illustrated with a small cog symbol ⚙ (next to the “logout” button).

You will then see the various settings options. Here is a screenshot showing Soccerwidow’s settings, which we use to facilitate our own data scraping and odds checking:

Oddsportal Settings ScreenshotOddsportal Settings Screenshot

Notes:

  • The “Primary Type of Odds” setting refers to what you see when you open any individual game. If you choose the AH (Asian Handicap) O/U (Over/Under), or any of the other options, then that bet type tab will be the first you see. However, it will always be the 1X2 odds displayed when initially opening a league.
  • It is usually quicker to see which bookmaker is offering the best odds if you “Sort bookmakers by” bookmaker payout. The bookmaker list of the matches you open will then appear roughly in descending odds order. The highest 1X2 odds time-stamped most recently will usually be in the top half of the list. (But of course, usually no one bookmaker will be offering best price on all three outcomes, so you will have to hunt for them). Here’s a quick example of bookmaker payout order:


Oddsportal Bookmaker Payout Order ScreenshotOddsportal Bookmaker Payout Order Screenshot

Next Page: My Bookmakers Tab; Problem Bookmakers; Manage My Leagues

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Is Arbitrage Worthwhile Pursuing? Is Arbitrage Legal? http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/is-arbitrage-worthwhile-pursuing-is-arbitrage-legal/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/is-arbitrage-worthwhile-pursuing-is-arbitrage-legal/#comments Thu, 01 Feb 2018 12:55:00 +0000 http://soccerwidow.com/?p=1690 Arbitrage is ‘Sure Betting’

In the world of sports betting the art of arbitrage involves wagering on both or all sides of an event with the right combination of odds and stakes in place to make a profit whatever the outcome of that event.

Illustration - successful arbitrage bettingImage: 3Dmask (Shutterstock)

The principle of arbitrage is ‘sure betting‘, supposedly with minimum risk (for the seasoned arbitrageur) and long-term, guaranteed profits.

Surely this is the closest you can come to attaining the “Holy Grail” in betting? Or maybe not?

Despite the apparent rewards on offer the number of worldwide professional sports arbitrageurs is in the low tens of thousands, not more. In comparison, the German stock market employs over 3,200 staff, whilst one of the largest providers of automated arbitrage services, RebelBetting has even fewer subscribers than this number (as we write).

So, why such a relatively small group of customers taking advantage of the so-called ‘guaranteed’ gains averaging between 1.5% and 3.5% per bet (a typical ‘arb‘ provides around 2.5%), with perhaps 15-25% potential profit on the capital employed each month? That’s a far higher reward than any bank, building society, or share dividend offers!

Is Arbitrage legal?

There is no question that arbitrage is legal because the arber is simply exploiting price differences in the market, effectively buying and selling (bets) as any trader does. There is nothing illegal about this.

However, it is understandable that bookmakers are not fond of arbers. Every company has the right (even arbitrarily) to decide who their customers should be and many bookmakers prohibit arbers from their books. As soon as suspicion is aroused bookmaker accounts are quickly limited or even closed.

High Capital Requirement and Personal Characteristics

Successful arbitrage betting ultimately guarantees small returns but the sacrifice is that the process requires large funds. The money is tied-up in the venture for a potentially long period of time.

Pursuing an average 2.5-3.0% profit per betting round and targeting a return of 15-25% of the capital employed per month, the ‘arber’ needs, for example, a starting bank of at least 25,000 € in order to make 5,000 € profit per month.

Wow! A lot of money required at the start to make it worthwhile, and entering the arbitrage arena on these terms will be impossible for many.

Of course, arbitrage betting is a pretty safe investment, but in addition to substantial funds it requires not only great expertise but also some strong personal characteristics to make it possible at all:

  • Many time-consuming calculations must be performed. Ouch, lots of maths!
  • Clear and complete records of every transaction must be kept. How boring!
  • Discipline and consistency has to be maintained at all times. Far too unsocial!

And lastly, a really stable, reliable and fast internet connection is essential, without any limitations to any bookmaker or exchange worldwide.

However, the average punter is perhaps not such a ‘professional’ investor, but bets for fun and/or the excitement of watching an event knowing that money is riding on the outcome. Of course, he hopes to profit from the wager but his are gambles, not investments. Is that the reason why there are so few ‘arbers’ out there and active in the market?

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A Brief Introduction to Over Under Goals Betting http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/introduction-over-under-goals-betting/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/introduction-over-under-goals-betting/#respond Wed, 31 Jan 2018 06:11:18 +0000 http://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=5647 more »]]> Over/Under is a very popular form of football betting and where a lot of new football punters start. But just because it is simple doesn’t mean that it can’t be a good way to make money.

Football and moneyImage: Gts (Shutterstock)

Over/Under is a great way for people new to betting to get their feet wet…

What Does Over/Under Mean?

With over/under betting, the first thing to understand is that you are betting in relation to the number of goals scored in the game. It doesn’t matter which team scores the goals or even who wins.

You just take the number of goals scored by each of the teams and add them together to get the total goals scored during the game.

The simplicity of this bet is what makes it such a common wager.

When you place an over/under bet, you have to choose two things:

  1. What “goal line” you want to bet, and
  2. Whether you bet that the total goals scored in the game will end over or under that goal line.

It doesn’t matter how close the result is to the goal line either, the bet pays the same whether the end result is close to the bet’s goal line or far away.

Why the “Point Five”?

Over/Under bets that end in “.5” have only two outcomes.

You either win the bet and get paid an amount equal to your stake multiplied by the betting odds or you lose the bet and your stake.

Because you can’t score half a goal, every bet is either a win or a loss.

Let’s take the most popular goal line in football: 2.5.

If you think the total goals in the game will be three or more, you would want to bet “Over 2.5”. If you think the total goals in the game will be two or less, you would choose to bet “Under 2.5”.

Over/Under bets without the “.5” or with different fractions (such as 2.25) may return part or all of your stake to you even if you don’t win.

For example, with a Total Goals bet, if you bet “Over 2” and exactly 2 goals are scored, you will not win the wager but you will get your stake refunded.

The graphic below shows which bet (over or under) will win given a certain score in the game for various goal lines.

Over-Under distribution visualisation

Attention Please! Some Goals Don’t Count!

When you are betting in football, the only goals that count towards over/under bets are the ones scored during the regulation 90 minutes of each match.

If the game ends tied after 90 minutes any goals scored in extra-time or a penalty shoot-out do not count towards the over/under goals tally.

The result of the match itself does not matter; drawn matches with scorelines like 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, etc., also contribute to over-under bet results.

Over/Under 2.5: The Most Popular Bet in Football

We are using 2.5 as an example here because although there are many possible over/under bets, 2.5 happens to be the most popular goal line for football bets.

It turns out that when you look at a long history of football games, even across different leagues, the average number of total goals scored per game is very close to 2.5.

As a result, you often have a similar number of punters backing each side of the 2.5 goal line where the odds are similar no matter which choice of over or under is made.

Choose Your Bet Using Statistical Information

Bookmakers set the odds of over and under for each available goal line using statistical information on the teams who are playing each other as well as football games in general.

Demand on each side of the bet can change the bookmaker odds and knowing what the statistics say can help you determine whether a particular bet is a good or bad one to take.

The best bet is not always the bet that is closest to the actual score you expect.

In fact, it is often the bets further away from expectations that offer the greatest difference between the betting odds offered in the markets and the true statistical predictions.

Making Money at Over-Under Betting

Some punters are surprised at how important the underlying mathematics are, but long-term success at over/under betting is much more science than art!

Continue to follow our blog to learn more, or check out our book: Fundamentals of Sports Betting.

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The Gambler’s Worst Enemy: Emotions! http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/the-gamblers-worst-enemy-emotions/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/the-gamblers-worst-enemy-emotions/#comments Fri, 26 Jan 2018 21:45:11 +0000 http://soccerwidow.com/?p=5485 more »]]> It doesn’t matter where you want to succeed in life, emotions are in play with every good or bad decision you make.

In a betting context, emotions are a killer: too many emotive decisions will see long hours of preparatory work wasted and all expectations of success quickly dashed.

It is certainly not easy to lay all emotions aside but, unfortunately, there is no alternative if you wish to achieve long-term success!

The main problem of the gambler if not even his worst enemy is the gambler himself

Let’s look at a dictionary definition of emotion:

  • A strong feeling deriving from one’s circumstances, mood, or relationships with others.
  • Instinctive or intuitive feeling (gut feeling) as distinguished from reasoning or knowledge.


Your worst enemy when gambling is invariably yourself!

If you lack the right mental attitude before entering the betting arena, then you are already a casualty.

You’ll come out of the experience bruised and bloodied, confused as to what went wrong, when all you had to do was follow the black and white rules of your own system.

We see the same pattern, over and over again.

People write to us explaining their good intentions based on really good strategies they have found, formulated over weeks, months, sometimes years’ of statistical analyses.

All starts off well and they proudly report their initial successes until they burst their own bubble:

  • The system is successful and produces profits but not quickly enough. Patience expires and greed takes over.
  • Gut feeling replaces the mathematical predictions and, instead of staying in the statistically ‘hot’ zone, selections are made outside of these very carefully calculated criteria.
  • Discipline becomes erratic and one or more rounds of betting are missed or ignored.
  • Losses are chased.
  • Too many adjustments to the original script are made as the season unfolds in response to undesired results.


A Real Life Example of Betting Emotions

One of our betting friends is in regular contact with us and he is highly skilled at identifying potential lucrative systems. He is representative of thousands of other bettors.

From our 2015-16 German Bundesliga HDAFU Table, which contains the previous five seasons’ statistical data, he was able to filter out a successful and very promising betting strategy.

The strategy:

Betting on all 17 home games of SV Hamburg with 100 unit flat stakes, the system was simple: back the underdog (the team with the highest odds), regardless of whether that be Hamburg at home or the away team.

Just one potential problem: our friend was (and still is!) a huge Hamburg fan.

So, what happened?

On 22/08/2015, Hamburg hosted Stuttgart in their first home game of the season. The underdog was Hamburg at odds of 3.0. With early season excitement, our friend placed his first bet and won when Hamburg recorded a 3-2 victory. His team won and his bet won – double joy!

Next up, on 19/09/2015, was Hamburg’s home game against Frankfurt, the underdog. Emotional problem: back Frankfurt to win, despite supporting Hamburg. Nevertheless, logic prevailed and the bet was placed. The game ended 0-0 and the first 100 unit stake was lost.

On 26/09/2015 Hamburg played Schalke, and this time, the home team was the underdog. Again, sticking to his carefully calculated system the bet was placed, but lost when Schalke won 0-1.
Three rounds and no further forwards.

Three bets placed, one winner with a return of 200 units and two losers with a total loss of 200 units. Square one. In fact, less than square one when factoring in the wasted time so far.

The fourth round was on 17/10/2015, Hamburg against Leverkusen, with the home side again the underdog. The bet was placed, the result was 0-0; the system now recorded an overall loss of 100 units.
Gnawing doubt set in.

In the fifth round, on 01/11/2015, Hamburg played host to Hannover who were priced at the longest underdog odds so far; 4.35. After three consecutive lost bets, our friend abandoned his system and backed the favourite, his own team, at odds slightly over 2.0. Of course, Hannover went on to win the match 1-2.

Five rounds, one win, 200 units lost. Could it get worse?

Heart Rules Head

Hamburg played Dortmund on 20/11/2015, and Hamburg were long odds of 9.0 to secure a win. Knowing his own team inside-out, our friend decided Hamburg had no chance at all and chose not to place the bet. Of course, he had the fans’ consolation when his team overwhelmed the favourites, 3-1!

So, after six rounds, our friend had placed just five bets, with only four of them within his original selection criteria. His losses were 200 units. Had he stuck to the plan and bet on all six underdogs, his profits would have been 1,135 units!

Could it get even worse?

You already know the answer! 😉

Party ‘Til You Drop

He was at a party on 05/12/2015 when Hamburg played Mainz. Already feeling sore about the ‘ones that got away’, he decided to have a good time rather than face the firing squad again and therefore didn’t bother placing the bet.

His philosophy was that his system had already produced a streak of winners and the chances were that this would breakdown at some stage. Mainz were the underdog at 3.3 and duly proceeded to win the match 1-3. Another lost opportunity.

Total apathy now reigned and the decision was made to give up the system altogether.

The next match saw Augsburg, the underdog, win 0-1 at odds of 3.25.

Bringing results up to date at the time of writing, Hamburg’s last match was a home defeat by heavy favourites Bayern Munich.

Summary Execution

Instead of registering a profit of 1,490 units from nine bets, our friend placed just four bets within his strategy (plus the one outside it) and lost 200 units. Does this pattern sound familiar?

And, he is not a stupid man. He is well educated and is currently graduating university with a degree in Economics. His name is Florian and we thank him for his permission to relate this story.

Instructions on How to Guarantee Bankruptcy!

Greed Emotion Shock Good Intentions - Until Bust

Simple: Let greed and emotions rule your bet placements.

Here, emotions include hope, euphoria, disappointment, shock, desperation, apathy, resignation. All of these things combine to make you a totally ineffective gambler.

Unfortunately, Florian ran the whole gamut (and probably more) when test-driving what, on the face of it, was a really promising system.


Next Page: How to Succeed…

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2018 Summer League HDAFU Tables: Standard Deviation Adjustments http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/2018-summer-league-hdafu-tables-standard-deviation-adjustments/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/2018-summer-league-hdafu-tables-standard-deviation-adjustments/#comments Tue, 23 Jan 2018 20:53:18 +0000 http://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=6140 more »]]> In the quest for further accuracy using the HDAFU Tables to compile successful portfolios, the forthcoming 2018 Summer League campaign now features Inflection Point adjustments using Standard Deviation technique.

What is Standard Deviation and how does it help?

Standard deviation is a measure used to quantify the amount of variation within a set of data values. It measures how far a set of numbers are spread out around the mean, or average value. In this case, five seasons’ odds data.

Calculating the standard deviation values takes into consideration larger deviations from the mean. In other words, the ‘outlier’ values; those that are furthest away from the mean.

Thus, standard deviation provides us with a ‘margin for error’ allowance and also a more rounded perspective of the statistical conclusions to be formed. In short, standard deviation provides us with a wider safety net for predicting future results.

2018 Summer League Standard Deviation Adjustment Figures

Once you have calculated the two inflection points (see User Guide), use the standard deviation tables below to adjust these figures to provide a wider, more accurate scope for your predictions:

Summer League Inflection Points Standard Deviation Adjustment FiguresSummer League Inflection Points Standard Deviation Adjustment Figures

Random Example Calculations

Example 1: Brazil Home Wins – 2nd Half Season Analysis.

Let’s say your chosen system is home wins in Brazil for the second half of the Série A season. Your two inflection points are 1.98 to 2.56.

  1. Divide both figures by 1 to find the implied probabilities of the odds:
    1/1.98 = 0.50505, or 50.505%
    1/2.56 = 0.39062, or 39.062%
  2. Lose the percentage signs for the time being from the implied probability figures:
    Lower odds/higher probability threshold becomes: 50.505
    Higher odds/lower probability threshold becomes: 39.062
  3. Look up the adjustment value in the table above. The middle table shows the second halves of each Summer League season. The home win value for Brazil is 0.677
  4. ADD the home win value of 0.677 to the lower odds’ threshold: 50.505 + 0.677 = 51.182
  5. SUBTRACT the home win value of 0.677 from the higher odds’ threshold: 39.062 – 0.677 = 38.385
  6. Add the percentage sign back on and convert both figures back into odds values. Round-up or down during this step only:
    1/51.182% = 1.953, which rounds-down to 1.95
    1/38.385% = 2.605, which rounds-up to 2.61

The new inflection point range adjusted for standard deviation is therefore 1.95 to 2.61.


Example 2: Sweden Underdogs – Whole Season Analysis.

Inflection points: 4.16 and 7.20

  1. 1/4.16 = 0.24038, or 24.038%
    1/7.20 = 0.13888, or 13.888%
  2. 24.038 and 13.888
  3. The bottom table shows the Whole Season adjustment values for each league. In this case, Sweden’s standard deviation adjustment is 0.420
  4. 24.038 + 0.420 = 24.458
  5. 13.888 – 0.420 = 13.468
  6. 1/24.458% = 4.088, which rounds-up to 4.09
    1/13.468% = 7.425, which rounds-up to 7.43

The new inflection point range adjusted for standard deviation is therefore 4.09 to 7.43.

Conclusion

The 2018 Summer League seasons will be the only time you will have to carry out these calculations manually.

In future, the standard deviation calculations will be incorporated into the HDAFU tables themselves and will calculate automatically.

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2017-18 Summer and Winter League Calendar http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/summer-winter-league-calendar/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/summer-winter-league-calendar/#comments Thu, 11 Jan 2018 14:09:16 +0000 http://www.soccerwidow.com/?p=5909 more »]]> Whilst some leagues have still not confirmed their schedules for 2017-18*, here is our guide to the start/finish dates and mid-season breaks of all leagues represented in our HDAFU Table portfolio.

*Updates will be performed when information becomes available.

We begin with the more popular Winter Leagues; the Summer Leagues are detailed on Page 2.

2017-18 Winter Leagues

01. Australia A-League

As the A-League has no recognisable mid-season break, and the programme is so short (currently 135 matches per season), just the Whole Season Analysis is offered (single HDAFU table only).

Start Date: 6th October, 2017

Finish Date: 15th April, 2018

02. Austria Bundsliga

The Austrian Bundesliga has an official winter break every season (approximately six weeks) beginning in mid-December.

Start Date: 22nd July, 2017

1st Half Ends: 16th December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 3rd February, 2018

Finish Date: 20th May, 2018

03. Belgium Jupiler League

The Jupiler League has a three/four week break beginning after the last round of matches in December each year.

The second half of the season is shorter than the first and for the sake of the HDAFU tables, finishes with the last round of matches before the league splits into Championship* and Europa League Play-off* groups.

(*These latter matches are not included in our analyses and should not form part of any HDAFU portfolio strategy).

Start Date: 28th July, 2017

1st Half Ends: 24th December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 18th January, 2018

Finish Date: 9th March, 2018

04. Croatia 1. HNL

The Croatian 1. HNL has an official winter break every season (approximately seven/eight weeks) beginning in mid-December.

Start Date: 14th July, 2017

1st Half Ends: 16th December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 10th February, 2018

Finish Date: 19th May, 2018

05. Czech Republic 1. Liga

The Czech 1. Liga has an official winter break every season (approximately seven/eight weeks) beginning during the first week of December.

Start Date: 28th July, 2017

1st Half Ends: 1st December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 16th February, 2018

Finish Date: 25th May, 2018

06. Denmark Superligaen

The Superligaen has a seven/eight week break beginning after the last round of matches in December each year.

The second half of the season splits into a Championship Group, a Relegation Group* and includes Europa League play-off games*.

(*The Relegation Group and Europa League play-off games are not included in our analyses and should not form part of any HDAFU portfolio strategy).

Start Date: 14th July, 2017

1st Half Ends: 9th December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 10th February, 2018

Finish Date: Late May, 2018

07. England Premier League

The Premier League has no mid-season or winter break, but the season breaks naturally at the end of the calendar year.

Start Date: 11th August, 2017

1st Half Ends: 30th December, 2017 (Round 19)

2nd Half Starts: 1st January, 2018 (Round 20)

Finish Date: 13th May, 2018

08. France Ligue 1

Ligue 1 breaks for around three weeks just before Christmas each year.

Start Date: 4th August, 2017

1st Half Ends: 20th December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 13th January, 2018

Finish Date: 19th May, 2018

09. France Ligue 2

Ligue 2 breaks for around four weeks just before Christmas each year.

Start Date: 28th July, 2017

1st Half Ends: 15th December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 12th January, 2018

Finish Date: 11th May, 2018

10. Germany Bundesliga

The Bundesliga has a break of four/five weeks each year beginning in mid-December.

Start Date: 18th August, 2017

1st Half Ends: 16th December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 20th January, 2018

Finish Date: 12th May, 2018

11. Greece Super League

The Super League has a break of around three weeks usually beginning during the third week of December.

Start Date: 19th August, 2017

1st Half Ends: Third week of December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: First week of January, 2018

Finish Date: 6th May, 2018

12. Italy Serie A

Serie A usually has a break of around two weeks beginning after the last round of games immediately before/after Christmas, with the re-start during the first or second week of January each year.

Start Date: 19th August, 2017

1st Half Ends: 30th December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 6th January, 2018

Finish Date: 20th May, 2018

13. Netherlands Eredivisie

The Eredivisie has a four week break beginning after the last round of games immediately before Christmas.

Start Date: 11th August, 2017

1st Half Ends: 24th December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 19th January, 2018

Finish Date: 6th May, 2018

14. Poland Ekstraklasa

The Ekstraklasa has a seven/eight week break beginning after the last round of matches in mid-December each year.

The second half of the season splits into a Championship and Relegation Group, and all matches are included in our analyses for inclusion in any strategy.

Start Date: 14th July, 2017

1st Half Ends: 15th December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 9th February, 2018

Finish Date: end of May/beginning of June, 2018

15. Portugal Primeira Liga

The Primeira Liga has a two week break beginning after the last round of matches immediately before Christmas each year.

Start Date: 6th August, 2017

1st Half Ends: 19th December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 5th January, 2018

Finish Date: 12th May, 2018

16. Russia Premier League

The Russian Premier League needs an extended break to cope with the winter weather. The break usually begins in mid-December, with the re-start not until early March each year.

Start Date: 15th July, 2017

1st Half Ends: 10th December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 4th March, 2018

Finish Date: 13th May, 2018

17. Scotland Premiership

The Premiership breaks for around three weeks each season after the last round of matches in the calendar year.

Start Date: 5th August, 2017

1st Half Ends: 30th December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 24th January, 2018

Finish Date: Variable – The last five seasons have all differed – anywhere between the second and fourth week in May.

18. Spain La Liga Primera

La Liga Primera has a break of up to two weeks after the games immediately before Christmas.

Start Date: 11th August, 2017

1st Half Ends: 19th December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 6th January, 2018

Finish Date: 13th May, 2018

19. Switzerland Super League

The Super League breaks for six/seven weeks in mid-December each year.

Start Date: 22nd July, 2017

1st Half Ends: 15th December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 2nd February, 2018

Finish Date: 18th May, 2018

20. Turkey Süper Lig

The Süper Lig breaks for around two weeks at the end of each calendar year.

Start Date: 11th August, 2017

1st Half Ends: 23rd December, 2017

2nd Half Starts: 20th January, 2018

Finish Date: 19th May, 2018

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Value Betting – Popular Misconceptions & Common Myths http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/value-betting-popular-misconceptions-common-myths/ http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/betting-advice/value-betting-popular-misconceptions-common-myths/#comments Sat, 06 Jan 2018 09:00:17 +0000 http://www.fussballwitwe.com/?p=2746 In many betting forums there are regular discussions and queries about value betting. However, it seems that there are a good number of bettors who believe in myths and indulge false concepts.

Panning for Gold panning - man finding at least a nugget or twoImage: Jeff Banke (Shutterstock)

Here are some of the most popular misconceptions…

(1) Betting on low odds is not worth the effort because winnings are very little

This is absolute nonsense. Successful betting is not about the pay-out of a bet, but the main goal is to make a profit. Very often, especially in the small odds markets excellent value can be found.

In addition, low odds have the huge advantage that they stand for high probabilities and therefore losses are considerably fewer in number than with higher priced, lower probability events. Also, small odds experience shorter losing streaks and the patience of the gambler is never stretched too far.

However, what really matters is the price of the bet.

If, for example, the calculations for a match throw up an 85% chance that there will be under 3.5 goals (corresponding betting odds: 1.18), and the market is offering odds of 1.25 then this is a fantastically good value back bet opportunity.

(2) Betting on higher odds is more profitable

Again this is a very common misconception. Higher odds do not automatically hold more value and are therefore more profitable than lower odds.

Many punters believe that better returns can be achieved in the long run if playing at odds between 2.5 to 3.0. Of course, it is understandable that these bets are quite popular as the potential winnings are 1.5 to 2.0 times the stake.

However, what most gamblers do not consider (or perhaps simply do not know!) is that these betting odds represent chances of 33% to 40% of winning, meaning that on average six to seven out of 10 bets in this group will lose.

Since winning and losing bets are never evenly distributed it may well happen that, with a little luck, a few bets in a row may be won but, much more likely is that many, many consecutive bets will lose until the betting bank is depleted beyond recovery or is drained altogether.

(3) If odds are very low it’s a good idea to combine bets

Accumulator bets are the bedfellow of every bookmaker. Full stop! So far as the bookies are concerned the more people combining their betting choices, the better. It is an absolutely nailed on profit for the bookmaker, and only long-term misery for the punters.

We have already mentioned that bets at very low odds have a pretty high chance to win. There is no question about this. Nevertheless, even a bet with a 90% chance of winning still has a 10% probability of losing. Multiples of bets greatly increase the chances of losing. Only one bet needs to go wrong for a busted flush.

In addition, there is of course the overround of the bookmakers. When combining your bets, you usually have to pick one bookmaker limiting you to accepting their fixed prices. You can be sure that somewhere in the accumulator package you have bought will be bets priced well below their true value. No bookmaker offers best price on every event – if they did they would soon be out of business.

With accumulators you are invariably buying negative value and we have seen throughout this blog that the only way of making consistent profits through gambling is by having value on your side, constantly.

This sermon is therefore to encourage you to avoid multiple, accumulator or parlay bets. You can be sure that the bookmaker is god in this particular arena and the gambler always loses in the long run, guaranteed.

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