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Combinatorics and Probability Theory in Football Betting
Introduction to Combinatorics and Probability Theory
This article is a step-by-step guide explaining how to compute the probability that, for example, exactly 4 out of 6 picks win, or how to calculate the likelihood that at least 4 of 6 bets...
Correct Assignment of Football Data to Levels of Measurement
In statistics, information is collected using qualitative or quantitative data. The collected data is then organised using scales or levels in order to classify the data correctly because not every set of data is of equal value and can be analysed...
Odds Calculation: International Tournaments on Neutral Grounds
Cherry pick your own ‘value’ bets
For those of you interested in mastering odds calculation we present an opportunity to become independent from us or other picking services by purchasing Soccerwidow’s own Excel spreadsheet...
Goal Distribution: Bundesliga 1, Ligue 1, Eredivisie & Premier League
Goals Galore:
Judging purely from statistics, watching French league games must be rather boring as there are never many goals.
The Dutch, on the other hand, tend to have at least five goals in nearly 10% of their matches.
From a betting perspective...
Soccerwidow’s Football Betting Course – How to Calculate Odds: Betting on Over / Under ‘X’ Goals
So, calculations indicate that the ‘true’ odds for Bayern Munich’s home matches in the ‘under 4.5 goals’ market are 1.31. The best price available via bookmakers and betting exchanges for the next match is 1.23. What...
Backing and Laying Under the Minimum Stake Amount in Betfair
At some stage, after extensive paper exercises and calculations everyone will reach the phase where testing a system or strategy with real money is necessary.
However watertight the system seems on paper, if it includes laying at high odds,...
Heart Beats Brain – Is Accurate Forecasting of Specific Results in Football Matches Possible?
The English Premier League results of 5.2.2011 were simply amazing, at least in the eyes of an enthusiastic football fan like my husband. A record number of goals and not many games finishing with the expected result. The following table shows...
