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Combinatorics and Probability Theory in Football Betting
Introduction to Combinatorics and Probability Theory
This article is a step-by-step guide explaining how to compute the probability that, for example, exactly 4 out of 6 picks win, or how to calculate the likelihood that at least 4 of 6 bets...
How to Calculate Average Odds in Football Betting
Sometimes it is necessary to figure out the average odds from a set of betting odds which can then be used as the basis for further calculations. For example, computing deviation and variance.
When using odds in European format (decimal) you...
Value Betting – Popular Misconceptions & Common Myths
In many betting forums there are regular discussions and queries about value betting. However, it seems that there are a good number of bettors who believe in myths and indulge false concepts.
Here are some of the most popular misconceptions…...
Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage: Explained
Introduction
The terms probability, expectation, likelihood, chance and hit rate are all closely related, and express more or less the same thing. The difference is that before a game one talks about ‘chance’, ‘probability’,...
Stake, Yield, Return on Investment (ROI), Investment – Definitions and Formulas
The terms Yield and ROI (Return on Investment) confuse many bettors and what is worse, there are a good number of publications using these terms incorrectly which, only adds to the confusion!
In this article, Soccerwidow puts the record straight…
Stake...
How do Bookmakers Tick? How & Why do they Set Their Odds as they do?
Becoming a successful bettor requires not only a deep understanding of odds calculation but, it is also necessary to understand how the market works and especially how the bookmakers operate.
Of course, bookmakers are in the business of setting...
How is Overround Calculated and what are the Benefits of Removing it from the Betting Odds?
Simply put, overround is the bookmaker’s profit margin. Overround percentages vary and usually average between 4 and 7%, depending on the bookmaker.
Although bookmaker odds do not always fully represent the ‘true’ (expected)...
When to Back Instead of Lay Betting: Asian Handicap; Double Chance; Dutching…
This article explores the alternatives to laying at the betting exchanges in order to bet against a result.
Every bettor should try to optimise the financial return from his/her risk, which means finding absolutely the best prices available.
Of...
True Odds & Value Detector: International Club Competitions (with no head-to-head history)
This spreadsheet contains the calculations for international club tournaments between teams with no head-to-head history, applicable for competitions such as the UEFA Champions League, Europa League, or even the South American Copa Libertadores.
The...
True Odds & Value Detector: International Qualifiers (with no head-to-head history)
Have you ever wanted to calculate odds to identify bets with mathematical ‘value’ for international qualifiers, such as for the World Cup, European Championships or African Cup of Nations? Well, here’s the recipe:
Take…...
