# Soccerwidow’s Football Betting Course – How to Calculate Odds: Betting on Over / Under ‘X’ Goals

So, calculations indicate that the ‘true’ odds for Bayern Munich’s home matches in the ‘under 4.5 goals’ market are 1.31. The best price available via bookmakers and betting exchanges for the next match is 1.23. What should the prudent betting decision be? Should you ‘back’ or ‘lay’ at the offered price? What is the mathematical ‘value’ of this bet? What is the statistical probability of winning the bet? What are ‘true’ odds and how are they calculated?

If you are already a competent bettor and able to reply to this spectrum of questions without hesitation, then Soccerwidow’s Course is probably too basic for you. However, if you are unsure and need a refresher or, have no idea but would like to learn how to calculate odds professionally and understand how the market arrives at the prices offered to bettors, then this course is ideal.

### Finding an ‘Edge’ over the rest…

Here at Soccerwidow we are pleased to present our most comprehensive betting course yet, which will enable you to calculate the expected betting odds, identify ‘value’ bets and formulate strategies to bet unemotionally and confidently for a long-term profit.

The course will educate you or consolidate your ability in calculating percentages and probabilities, predicting market odds, and computing what the market odds should more realistically be.

You will be guided through a step-by-step process, analysing statistics and raw data to find the pricing ‘edge’ with each bet, being encouraged to ‘master’ each section of the course before moving onto the next with a series of exercises and test questions.

The example used to illustrate each of the principles is the under/over ‘X’ goals market, which is popular amongst betting exchange users, and we go on to explain how the market odds at the opening of a market are formed and how to compare the relative strength of individual teams by cluster grouping the statistical records of each for more accurate predictions.

You will learn the fundamentals of odds calculation and the knowledge acquired can be applied to any market of your choice, not just the under/over ‘X’ goals market.

However, please be aware that this course will not teach you how to get rich quick. Getting rich fast with betting is a false economy and only through the logical progression of hard work and determination can you hope to make long-term, regular profits.

The contents include:

### Section A: Basic Knowledge

Probabilities, odds, value, profit and loss calculation:
1. Calculation of the expected market prices
1.1. Goals in the Bundesliga
1.2. Exercises in calculating percentages
1.3. Expected odds for the Bundesliga
1.4. Exercises in calculating probability and odds

2. Evaluation of individual teams
2.1. Exercises in interpreting graphs
2.2. Computing the ‘zero’ (fair) odds
2.3. How is ‘value’ calculated?
2.4. Exercises in calculating probabilities, odds, value, profit and loss

### Section B: Cluster groups and betting tables

3. Building cluster groups
3.1. What are cluster groups?
3.2. Cluster grouping according to the relative strength of opposing teams
3.3. Exercises in cluster group building

4. Betting tables under/over ‘X’ goals
4.1. How to read and understand the betting tables
4.2. Exercises in calculating and forecasting market odds
4.3. Finding potential value bets in the betting tables
4.4. Exercises with cluster groups and identifying bets

In its entirety (1.29 MB), the course comprises 69 pages, over 11,500 words, 44 example tables in the body of the course, 18 betting tables (home and away for nine Bundesliga 1 teams), plus a whole host of exercises and practice tests to enable a full grasp of the topic.

An example betting table in the body of the course will look as follows:

Probabilities and odds for Wolfsburg home matches

Once you have absorbed the principles of ‘value’ and possess the ability to calculate a mathematical advantage or ‘edge’ over the market odds offered for an event, it naturally follows that betting becomes purely a numbers game in the pursuit of regular profits.

To summarise, this course provides sound advice in an easy to follow step-by-step guide to learning odds calculation, identifying ‘value’ in the market (i.e identifying which bets to place and which to leave alone), and in calculating potential profits and monitoring your performance.

Last Update: 25 February 2012

### 35 Responses to “Soccerwidow’s Football Betting Course – How to Calculate Odds: Betting on Over / Under ‘X’ Goals”

1. Stu
19 November 2012 at 9:28 am #

Hi,

Great blog you have. Stumblet up on it the other day. Lots of great stuff here.

I have a question. As a rockie, where do you recomend me to start? I want to buy one or more of your courses in order to attain more knowlegde about betting.

Please e-mail me for further communication

• Soccerwidow
19 November 2012 at 2:15 pm #

Hi Stu,

This betting course here is certainly a good start for newbies. However, we also have loads of free articles on the blog, so you may just simply dive in a little and read through them.

Regarding your request for email communication, please kindly ask all your questions via the comment functions in the articles. We normally reply within a few hours. If you subscribe to the respective post, then our replies will be also emailed to you.

2. Stu
19 November 2012 at 6:42 pm #

Do I interpret it right that I should recreate the spreadsheet showing in task # 1?
In that case I’m going to have to buy me a excel courses as well.

3. Stu
19 November 2012 at 6:58 pm #

Maybe I was a little fast on the trigger. Turns out that I´m not that bad in excel.

• Soccerwidow
19 November 2012 at 7:13 pm #

4. Antonio
3 December 2012 at 3:53 am #

I have,um,disagreed with some of the things that have been written by soccer widow(and her man!) on this site so,to redress the balance,this seems to be a very worthwhile course which I may well have to purchase myself!!

Funnily enough I have a friend who loves to bet on overs markets-not 2.5 goals,4.5 and,in the right circumstances,6.5 goals and he drives me NUTS by winning very high r.o.i.s doing such bets.

What I don’t understand about his success is the fact that highly-respected Kevin Pullein as well as the author of a popular soccer betting book(i.e. someone else) say that since most people bet on overs what value there is in such markets will usually lie in the unders.

To what extent would you say this is true?

I must say,I don’t know anyone who bets unders!!!!

• Soccerwidow
3 December 2012 at 8:15 am #

Hi Antonio,

you can find value in all kind of markets, but the highest value is found with the outliers. These are in the over/under market the under 6.5 goal bets, and in some circumstances the over 1.5

The course explains, why.

5. Carsten
3 January 2013 at 3:19 pm #

Hi,

Let me begin by expressing my great interest in your work. Keep it up!

I am very interested in buying this product. However, there seems to be a problem with PayPal right now, and I am unable to pay using my credit card. Unfortunately, I need the book very quickly (in fact it is my intention to go through the complete course before the end of the weekend).

Is it possible to make a fast payment without using PayPal so that I can get access to the material quickly – even if the problems with PayPal persist?

• Soccerwidow
3 January 2013 at 5:23 pm #

Hi Carsten, we also accept payments via Moneybookers or Neteller. I emailed the details to you. Sorry for the problems you are experiencing.

6. gari
7 February 2013 at 6:55 pm #

Hi,

May know which page i can get more solid explanations about clustering?

7. Gari
8 February 2013 at 4:00 am #

Hi,

Can you pls explain the details for clustering?

1st :
Hoffenheim vs dortmund
lbh 4.5
lbd 3.75
lba 1.72

This overround is 2.616% or 2.616*100= 2616%?

How do you categorize Row I , II , III, IV in yr excel? for different teams?

• Soccerwidow
8 February 2013 at 8:23 am #

1. Calculation overround

1/4.5+1/3.75+1/1.72 = 1.070284 –> Overround: 7.0284% (1.070284 minus 1)

Please also see following article: How is Overround Calculated and what are the Benefits of Removing it from the Betting Odds?

2. Clustering

Clustering is grouping a set of data in such a way that data in the same group (called cluster) are more similar (in some sense or another) to each other than to those in other groups (clusters).

There are different approaches (algorithms) to cluster data. In the course, we sort the data of each team in 4 similar large groups (clusters). However, what often causes confusion is that, because each team is of different strength, the clusters for each team are different. Hope this helps.

8. J Li
17 February 2013 at 12:23 am #

Hi I bought the course for over/under but I’m stucked at Exercise 1.2 Part E where the answer says bets on under 0.5 goals have 3.5 times more risk than bets on under 1.5 and how did you calculate the result 24% and 6.78%.
I’m sorry but my maths is not my strong point but I want to go through this course thoroughly.

• Soccerwidow
17 February 2013 at 6:32 am #

Hi J Li, I emailed to you a spreadsheet containing all calculations to come up with the charts used in the course. Hopefully, this will help you to get to the correct answer in 1.2. (E).

9. A. Charles
8 April 2013 at 11:10 am #

I’m not looking into the profits, rather how the betting is calculated. Will this book guarantee that i be able to calculate odds for any given match?

• Soccerwidow
8 April 2013 at 11:58 am #

Yes, this course will teach you how to calculate over/under odds for any given match.