Cherry pick your own ‘value’ bets
For those of you interested in mastering odds calculation we present an opportunity to become independent from us or other picking services by purchasing Soccerwidow’s own Excel spreadsheet from which we calculate ‘true’ or ‘zero’ odds in order to identify value bets.
This particular spreadsheet is exclusively for matches in international tournaments such as the European Championships or World Cup on neutral ground.
For each match, you will need to input historical data for both teams together with the current odds for the various events to be analysed, but the final calculations are automatically performed for you. The spreadsheet will identify potential ‘value’ bets by comparing the market prices with own computations.
The spreadsheet contains all the formulae, nothing is hidden or locked. We don’t believe in ‘secrets’. However, you may be disappointed to find that we are not using binominal formulae or Poisson distribution to compute expectations. We are using plain and simple maths. You don’t need to be a mathematician or have a university degree to understand the spreadsheet.
However, you do need to be aware that this is a working document and assumes that you have a good understanding of odds calculation. There is no great need to have advanced skills in Excel, but the information contained in the spreadsheet is somewhere between intermediate and advanced, definitely not beginners’ level.
The Excel spreadsheet will not teach peripheral things such as percentage calculations. We are assuming that you will already be comfortable with the basics. There are no explanations on lay and back bets. It is taken for granted that you know the difference. You will certainly find it challenging to use if you are still struggling to convert odds into probabilities and vice versa.
Please also be aware that the outcome of the calculations will only be as accurate as the raw data you have inputted. It may take you some time to understand the spreadsheet, but once you master it we are sure you will enjoy using it.
The spreadsheet is not the Holy Grail. We do not promise it will make you rich. What we do promise is that you will own a tool of great assistance in recognising value bets; it’s then up to you which ones you choose to include in your betting portfolio. The automatic calculations will enable you to formulate your own successful ‘value’ bet strategy.
If you need enlightenment, this spreadsheet should open up to you a world of statistical analyses. It also calculates the mathematical advantage per bet and will perhaps give you many further ideas how data can be analysed. However, it will not substitute for a proper staking plan or compensate for your emotions or wrong decisions. It’s just a calculator.
As mentioned, this spreadsheet is for international or cup tournaments or finals where both teams are playing on neutral ground, without available head-to-head statistics. The historical data needed are only the away records of both teams, with no need for for any other data.
The data you enter will automatically provide odds calculation and value bet identification for the following betting events:
- Full-time result
- Half-time result
- Draw no bet
- To win to nil
- Clean sheet
- To win both halves
- Both teams to score
- Full-time over/under ‘X’ goals
- First half over/under 1.5 goals
- Full-time correct score
- Half-time correct score
Should you have any pre-purchase questions or any arising once you have bought the workbook, then we are always here to assist. Just post your queries using the comments box below and we will respond without delay. These posts will be displayed for the benefit of others.
We believe the price is reasonable and the product comes with full notes to help you understand its mechanics. We assure you that the knowledge contained in it is the result of many, many hours of work and represents the only way we can coach people without expending more time on individual sessions.
If you have never owned a Soccerwidow product then this is a good place to start and as you can see from the success of our own match previews, it definitely works for us.