Have you ever wanted to calculate odds to identify bets with mathematical ‘value’ for international qualifiers, such as for the World Cup, European Championships or African Cup of Nations? Well, here’s the recipe:
…the last 30 competitive international (no friendlies) matches of the two teams involved (the last 30 home games for the home team and the last 30 away games for the away team)
…Obtain the half-time and full-time scores for each team’s 30 games plus the historical odds for these games (www.oddsportal.com is a good site for this)
…Filter these results to produce the 10 closest matches against comparable opponents (in other words, similar strength to the match in question)
…Run these data through a series of formulas
…And finally, compute the expected probabilities and corresponding odds
Sounds simple enough, doesn’t it?
Of course, this is a long-winded task on paper, and even for moderately competent Excel users this may prove more than a challenge.
Soccerwidow has produced the ultimate tool to solve these problems leaving you just to enter the half-time and full-time scores of each team’s 30 games plus the best odds you can find for each betting option to be analysed. Our Excel spreadsheet will then automatically calculate the expected (= true) betting odds and compare them with the market prices providing you with ‘value’ bet indications and the statistical probability of success for each bet.
The spreadsheet offered for sale comes pre-filled with data from the World Cup qualifier Moldova v. England scheduled for 7/9/2012. Afterwards, just delete or over-type the prerequisite data to analyse any match of your choosing.
For each of the following events, the expected mathematical ‘value’ is automatically flagged up together with the statistical probability of winning the bet:
- Match Result (home-draw-away) at both half-time and full-time
- Draw No Bet
- Win to Nil
- Clean Sheet
- Both Teams to Score
- Over/Under ‘X’ Goals
- Half-time and Full-time Correct Scores
- The full realm of Asian Handicap options including all the half and quarter point thresholds
The spreadsheet calculates ‘true’ odds (expected probabilities), and compares market prices with the statistical probability of winning the bet to show you whether there is any ‘value’ in the bet and therefore whether it is financially worthwhile undertaking.
It should be noted that the spreadsheet is not a tool for automated betting. Although the tables provide vital information to improve the accuracy of predictions, the figures do not substitute for reading salient news and applying good judgment in addition.
Read some sample match previews applying the calculations in the German Betfair blog:
- England – San Marino: Starker Tor-Hagel in London zu erwarten
- Russland – Portugal: Eroberungszüge schlagen oftmals fehl in Russland
Frequently Asked Questions:
Can I use the spreadsheet for international friendlies, league games and domestic cup games, or the final tournament stages of international competitions on neutral ground?
The calculations are developed for international competitive qualifiers, such as the World Cup tournament, European Championships, African Cup of Nations, etc.
The data for both teams must come from similar competitive situations and therefore offer a direct comparison.
However, in some circumstances, the calculations may be applicable for national cup games, but only if there is enough data for the participating teams from competitive knock-out tournaments (no league games!). If there are 30 matches for each of the participating teams, the spreadsheet can be used. Please note that the data should not be older than 10 years and strictly without gaps in the past two seasons.
How long does it take to enter historical data into the spreadsheet?
This is the only manual procedure involved and using a site like www.statto.com or www.soccerway.com to obtain both team’s match results will probably take 15 minutes per team. Inputting the best odds will probably take another 15 minutes. Finding and inputting historical odds is another 15 minutes’ work. Of course, these figures are very arbitrary and depend upon your speed and keyboard proficiency.
The process will obviously become faster the more practiced you become.
Are the formulas for the spreadsheet calculations visible?
Yes, none of the formulas are hidden.
Exactly which historical records do I have to input?
The full-time and half-time scores for both team’s last 30 competitive international matches (home games only for the home team, away games only for the away team), plus the historical odds for these games.
What knowledge is required?
You should already have a basic understanding of odds and how they are calculated. The spreadsheet is a tool to identify potential bet candidates.
However, you need to understand what is meant by the term ‘value’ and also have a good idea how to spread risk with a well-structured betting portfolio. The spreadsheet is intermediate level and you should become entirely familiar with its mechanics before committing money to any bet recommendations suggested by it.
Good Excel skills would also be an advantage as it is necessary to sort data and filter information to identify matches of comparable strength.
For beginners we offer a starter course: Soccerwidow’s Football Betting Course – How to Calculate Odds: Betting on Over/Under ‘X’ Goals, which is a step-by-step guide including exercises and tutorials on how to understand odds calculation. Although the example used is the popular over/under ‘X’ goals market, the principles can be just as easily applied to any market of your choosing.
Full support for all of Soccerwidow’s products is always provided should you require pre- or after-sales assistance or clarification. Feel free to ask any question via the Comment section below.