The HDA Betting System and simulation tables are based on the philosophy that each market has betting candidates which are consistantly over or under priced. The whole idea was described in detail in the article Home – Draw – Away: Systematic Betting in July 2011.
The tables simulate each team’s betting outcome over the last 5 seasons, applying a fixed win/fixed risk of 10 units on each outcome as we believe this is the most mathematically sound staking plan. Read more in Soccerwidow’s article comparing Fixed Risk/Fixed Win versus Fixed Stake plan.
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Have you ever wondered whether backing or laying a team consistently throughout an entire season would bring profits?
Soccerwidow has compiled tables for 23 top European leagues showing the 12 different combinations of bet types and their performance by team for the last 5 seasons between 2007-2012:
- Teams playing at home: Back or lay home; back or lay the draw; back or lay away
- Teams playing away: Back or lay home; back or lay the draw; back or lay away
Example: Bayern Munich playing Away
If you observe the market over the course of a season you will see Bayern’s average to win an away game as indicated by their odds is around 64%, whereas in reality they win no more than 50% of their away matches.
This observation is not an error or deviation, and it is also not arbitrary. Bookmakers have to balance their books and therefore odds do not only reflect the probabilities of an event but also take market demands and prejudices into consideration. The more successful the team, the more people tend to favour them, and consequently bookmakers reduce their prices to lower their liability. All of this means of course that opponents of the ‘favourite’ teams are then overpriced.
To identify these trends we have produced tables based on bookmakers odds simulating every combination of backing and laying home, draw and away bets over the last 5-seasons. The results are sometimes surprising and tell you which teams to look out for and which to avoid.
HDA Profit/Loss Simulation Tables 2007-2012
We have used average bookmaker odds for the calculations and assumed that the market will continue applying similar formulas for future events, meaning that odds will be based on the relative strength of teams in a similar manner as in previous seasons. As explained in the Bayern example above, the bookies will probably also continue taking demand and prejudices into consideration.
Each season is broken down by teams. The tables also include a stake toggle feature enabling you to see the impact on the results of different sized stakes.
The basis of the calculations are a top bookmaker’s HDA odds.
Additionally, there is a “Back Toggle” and “Lay Toggle” included. If this is set to 1.0 then the simulation shows the bookmaker’s profit/losses (i.e. bookmakers flat odds). The “toggles” can be set to different levels in order to simulate betting exchanges and take out the bookmakers’ overround as well as get a feel for the effects when odds increase/decrease and the subsequent impact on the betting outcome.
The back and lay toggles come pre-set at 1.1 (in other words, they factor in a 10% increment to reflect better odds at betting exchanges than at bookmakers). Re-set it at the touch of a button, for example to 1.05, and see how the figures change.
Try before you Buy
Download full version of the HDA Simulation Table for Scottish League Division 2. Simply twitter, like or Google+ to access the download for FREE. The link will appear immediately here:
XLSX 2007 (812 kB): Scottish Division 2 – 2007-2012 HDA Table
1X2 Betting System Tables Simulations – Important to Know
Soccerwidow stresses that the tables are simulations based on a fixed risk/fixed win staking plan for you to see what would have happened in the last 5-seasons when betting systematically on each team and using such a plan.
You should accept that you bet or gamble at your own risk. If you experience gambling problems of any kind, you should seek professional advice from a professional body such as Gamble Aware, Gamblers Anonymous or Gamcare. We advise that you should never risk more than you can afford to lose and under no circumstances attempt to chase back losses already accrued.
No betting or gambling of any form occurs on Soccerwidow’s Web site. Soccerwidow’s explanations and examples are mainly paper exercises and simulations to teach people odds calculation and open their minds to betting maths and statistics.
You must also understand that it is illegal for anyone under the age of 18 to bet or gamble.
Soccerwidow is not responsible for your usage of these tables or for any losses or liabilities sustained as a result of their use. The tables have been thoroughly checked for accuracy although we can never guarantee 100% accuracy as there may be the occasional game or games through a season where odds are not offered by any bookmaker. In such cases, the averages of both teams’ relative home and away 1X2 odds for that season have been used and such estimated figures are shown in red. The mathematical significance of the occasional ‘official’ gap in the data set is however inconsequential.
Thanks for your time.
Quick link to: 2011-2012 1X2 Betting System Review
Quick link to: Home – Draw – Away: Systematic Betting (introduction article July 2011)