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Author Archives: Soccerwidow

Conceptual image of 1x2 football betting / Konzeptionelles Bild 1x2 Fußball-Wetten

1×2 Football Betting – How to Compile a Winning Portfolio

This article moves away from betting on individual teams, and pushes strategic thinking further up the knowledge ladder. The method described below explains how to use our HDA simulation tables for recognising profitable 1×2 betting strategies...

Football Betting Odds Calculation Course – How to Calculate Odds – Over / Under ‘X’ Goals

Please note that this is an archived post. Here, we describe the 1st edition of our Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Course. We decided not to remove this post from the site because of the many questions and answers in the comments section....
Woman holding bank notes close to her face with a calculator and bills in the background / Frau hält Banknoten an ihr Gesicht mit Taschenrechner und Rechnungen im Hintergrund

The Gambler’s Ruin Explained – Fair Coin Flipping

One of the phenomenons of probability is Gambler’s Ruin. The most common meaning is that a gambler with finite wealth, playing a fair game (that is, each bet has expected zero value to both sides) will eventually go broke against an opponent...
Sexy female sitting on a large football with red and yellow cards / Sexy Frau sitzt auf einem großen Fußball mit roten und gelben Karten

Why Football is Better than Sex !

In 2008, a survey carried out by Canon in six European countries(1) came up with the remarkable result that 72 per cent of those asked said they would prefer 90 minutes watching their favourite team rather than an intimate evening with their...
Red pen on a calculator beside a piggy bank - save on costs, expenses, and budget / Roter Stift auf einem Taschenrechner neben einem Sparschwein - Kosten sparen und Ausgaben reduzieren

Arbitrage between Bookmakers and Cross Market Arbitrage

(1) Arbitrage between Two Bookmakers in One Betting Market This is the classic form of sports arbitrage (sure bets) in football betting. The arbitrage opportunity relies on at least two bookmakers evaluating the same event differently, each...
Percent cubes, 3D image / Prozent-Würfel, 3D-Bild

Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage: Explained

Introduction The terms probability, expectation, likelihood, chance and hit rate are all closely related, and express more or less the same thing. The difference is that before a game one talks about ‘chance’, ‘probability’,...
Young woman opening empty coin purse / Junge Frau, die eine leere Geldbörse öffnet

Get Permission to Use Images Displayed on Soccerwidow

Copyright Law & Licencing The images we use for illustration purposes throughout this website are often stock photos, purchased from outstanding libraries such as Shutterstock. Image: alexkatkov (Shutterstock) We sometimes modify these...
Man with calculator sunk into a heap of paper / Mann mit Taschenrechner versenkt in einem Papierhaufen

How to Calculate Average Odds in Football Betting

Sometimes it is necessary to figure out the average odds from a set of betting odds which can then be used as the basis for further calculations. For example, computing deviation and variance. When using odds in European format (decimal) you...
A pile of white dice / Haufen weißer Würfel

What is the Ideal Sample Size for Accurate Predictions?

A common problem faced by data analysts is to decide upon the required sample size. This can be estimated by using various calculations and distribution functions. However, even if a statistician is readily available, the answer is not necessarily...

Betting Odds Converter – Fractional, Decimal, Moneyline, Hong Kong, Indonesian, and Malay

Quick Odds Converter to switch odds between US, decimal, fractional, percentage, Hong Kong, Indonesian, and Malay formats – converts odds into their implied probabilities and net returns, and vice versa – converts probabilities and...